Rookie F Even Strength Points-60

Devin Setoguchi ranks 10th in rookie scoring so far this season, but he’s most certainly not the 10th best rookie in the league.

Several things make this a fact, including his games played total (11) which is half that of most of the players above him.

Below is a list of the top 10 forwards in terms of overall points this season and their even-strength points-per-60 minutes heading into tonight’s action.

I think it gives us a stronger line in the sand than merely looking at the leaderboard.

  1. Devin Setoguchi, SJS (11gp, 7-1-8, 3.19)
  2. Peter Mueller, PHX (20gp, 6-4-10, 2.26)
  3. Patrick Kane, CHI (23gp, 7-15-22, 2.10)
  4. David Perron, STL (14gp, 5-3-8, 2.09)
  5. Andrew Cogliano, EDM (24gp, 5-9-14, 2.04)
  6. Martin Hanzal, PHX (21gp, 2-9-11, 1.81)
  7. Sam Gagner, EDM (23gp, 2-7-9, 1.80)
  8. Daniel Carcillo, PHX (21gp, 4-7-11, 1.78)
  9. Niklas Backstrom, WSH (24gp, 2-12-14, 1.35)
  10. Jonathan Toews, CHI (21gp, 8-8-16, 1.22)

A few notes: Setoguchi’s linemates get lots of credit, but this kid has played 150 minutes at EV and has 7 goals already. Should he get 800 EV minutes (which is certainly possible) and maintain some semblance of his current pace he could end up with over 35 goals this season. Cogliano ranks 5th on the list, but it should be noted as well that his linemates don’t resemble Joe Thornton AND that he has points on the PP(3) and shorthanded (2), the only such player on the list. Jonathan Toews has played almost 300 EV minutes and gathered 6 points. His PP performance (10 points already) has him 2nd in overall rookie scoring. These are rookies, this is their starting off point. They are not helping their teams win like they will in their prime or even three years from now. Rookie seasons are mostly about survival.

Some of these kids are going to be very good, and two of them are Oilers.

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17 Responses to "Rookie F Even Strength Points-60"

  1. Kev says:

    Setoguchi: And he’s a good ol’ (Southern) Alberta boy, my hometown area. Go Devin!

    I thought I was seeing what you put up so thanks for making it a clearer point.

  2. Dennis says:

    Not as sold on Gagner as I am on Cogs. The former is smoother and sees the ice better but it could be a while before he’s anything but a soft minutes muncher.

  3. RiversQ says:

    Gagner will be fine I think. In fact I think he’ll be a tough minutes guy because he looks to be a puck possession type. I don’t think we’ve got a Comrie/Horcoff thing here with Gagner/Cogliano.

    Right now though…

    Let’s just say gravity is not Gagner’s friend.

  4. Gord says:

    I agree that Cogliano & Gagner are impressive rookies – a better duo than any team’s other than Chicago.

    But when we look at the Oilers defense – Pitkanen, Gilbert, Grebeshkov & Smid are all under the age of 25… Souray (31) will be staying but overall, there is not a lot of experience…

    Hemsky is only 25 while one of the seniors on the team (Horcoff) is 29. Penner (25) is on one of the top two lines, so once the 18 & the 20 year old are added – there is only one space open on the top two lines.

    With our depth on defense (either Staios or Tarnstrom is gone) – plus Stoll +/or Torres is out of here. I am sure we could package two of those (plus Nilsson/ Schremp) for a 1st line forward,

    To get back to the topic thread, our rookies (& the whole team) will be ready within two years. Because we have great high potential kids…..

  5. jon says:

    Setoguchi is getting decent time with Thornton so I think it has to be admitted that he’s not playing in the same ballpark as the rest of the rookies.

    As for Gagner and Cogliano, I think it’s pretty unfair to compare the two at this stage as there’s a huge developmental gap between them at this stage. Gagner just turned 18 a few months ago and is playing against men for the first time in his life. Cogliano has arguably been doing that for 2 years already.

    As LT posted last week, Cogliano in his 18 year old season was scoring around 0.717 PPG in NCAA on a stacked team, good for an NHL PPG of 0.232 according to Desjardin.

    Gagner in his 18 year old season is in the NHL and scoring at a 0.400 PPG pace.

    Is Cogliano a more polished player now? Certainly, that’s one of the many benefits of experience. Will Gagner be as polished at 20? Hard to say, but he’s learning from a coach who does his best to instill the values of 2-way play, so it’s a decent bet.

    Either way, I’m extremely pleased to have both players, as they both bring different elements in their games and in two years time they’ll do a fine job of complementing Hemsky.

  6. Rod says:

    Well said Jon. Cogliano *should* look better than Gagner at this point. Both have exceeded my expectations headed into the season. Whether they continue to develop remains to be seen of course, but they’ve hit the ground running. A couple years from now filling out the forward ranks with Hemsky? Looks promising to say the least.

  7. Doogie says:

    It’s been said before, but both Gagner and Schremp are textbook arguments for 18- and 19-year-old juniors to be put in the AHL. The OHL thing didn’t work for Schremp, and the NHL thing doesn’t seem to be working too well for Gagner. There’s no guarantees it would’ve helped, but given that it’s the only thing that hasn’t been tried yet…

  8. Lowetide says:

    Do you remember Hemsky at 19? I’ll try to find some of the posts at HF and put them here later.

    Gagner playing in the NHL at 18 may be helping his development tremendously, and if the price is a few losses in a season lost in the summertime then imo it’s probably worth it.

    Gagner had his usual holes last night, but he also showed some things. Really, I’d argue he is the second most valuable name on that list of 10 (Kane obviously being the one who appears ahead of him).

    The Oilers haven’t had an 18-year old regular since ever that I can recall. Arnott was 19, so was Hemsky.

  9. Devin says:

    Would you get off the whole “the OHL ruined Schremp” bullshit? Schremp and Gagner were not and are not comparables — Gagner was a far better prospect on draft day since he lit up the O at 17 while Schremp was a yr or two older when he began to dominate. Gagner was, and is, in a different class. I’d go so far as to say he’d be outscoring Schremp in the AHL today.

    Regardless, there’s no reason for Sam to be playing in the NHL this year. He’s not helping the team win, and as MacT famously said, the NHL is not a development league. A couple yrs of college didn’t hurt Cogliano. Hell, 4 yrs of college and a yr in the A didn’t hurt Gilbert. By the same metric, excessive NHL experience hasn’t made Matt Greene a better defender.

  10. Bruce says:

    The Oilers haven’t had an 18-year old regular since ever that I can recall. Arnott was 19, so was Hemsky.

    Ever hear of Wayne Gretzky? Mark Messier??

    ;~)

  11. Bruce says:

    Regardless, there’s no reason for Sam to be playing in the NHL this year. He’s not helping the team win, and as MacT famously said, the NHL is not a development league.

    Yeah, the point production at ES is impressive for an 18-year-old kid, but there is no hiding the defensive deficiencies. It’s a certainty that Oilers have scored at least 9 ES goals with Sam on the ice, meaning it’s also a certainty they’ve allowed at least 19, given his team-worst -10. (OK, not having access to detailed info, there might be a SHGA or an ENGA in there, but the point remains.) He could be +12/-22 or something — goddamn it, I wish the NHL would show +/- in such a fashion in their stats pack, where can I find it? — but let’s just assume +9/-19. That’s in 280 minutes of ES TOI, which translates to > 4 GA/60. I’m still getting into these numbers and am not sure what the median is for ESG/60, presumably a shade less than the median for all goals/60, but with a number like that Sam is nowhere near the median and is surely at or very near the bottom of the league.

    And it’s not like he’s making up for it in other ways, like say driving the powerplay (0-1-1 in 53:41 PP TOI).

    After a very decent start (9 GP, 1-6-7, -1) which assured his sticking around, Sam has posted extremely poor numbers (15 GP, 1-2-3, -9) which have persisted long enough to suggest he’s in over his head and not likely to pull out of it anytime soon. His hot start, which really dates all the way back to the Super Series (sic) and right through training camp, has dissolved into the grind of the long, long season.

    I for one would be in favour of lending him out to the World Junior program next week, where he would be a team leader and indeed might chew up the competition. By all means bring him back after that for another stint with the Oil, but sometime before 41 GP a decision needs to be made which affects his future RFA and/or UFA status.

    At this point I think that both Sam and the organization have learned a hell of a lot from 2007-08: 1) he’s a player, 2) he needs to work on strength, 3) he needs to work on the defensive side of the game. I am content enough with 1) that I wouldn’t be unhappy to have 2) and 3) occurring outside the glare of the NHL spotlight for the coming months.

  12. IceDragoon says:

    Good day.

    Gagner playing in the NHL at 18 may be helping his development tremendously, and if the price is a few losses in a season lost in the summertime then imo it’s probably worth it.

    I agree, Lain. But then again, I’m not slitting my wrists over the possibility of giving Burke a lottery pick. And, with the bad luck of injuries to some of our too few veterans, that possibility has gained momentum.

    Day one of TC I expected Gagner to go back to the OHL, play a leading role at the WJHCs, get another year of physical development and gain some speed. He adapted so quickly thru camp that I was cool with him staying or going back to junior, because he’d shown me enough to know that his development is in his own hands.

    Today he’s an Oiler, 18 year old body, rookie mistakes and all. He’s bonded with his teammates, especially Cogliano and Gilbert. (fwiw – Both these young men also qualify for Mensa.)

    The neuro-pathways that Sam’s building now will increase the quality and speed of his thought processing, which is already elite for his age.

    The pain will be worth the gain, imo. Lordy, he’s going to be something special when his physical development starts catching up to his brain.

    Of course, I’d prefer he play RW with a couple of vets (Reasoner and Sanderson?) on the fourth line, get a couple of candy shifts and 2nd PP, for a total of 10ish minutes a game. And… a press box view every 10-12 games.

    Oh and… If Rob Schremp had Sam Gagner’s IQ, he’d have blown the doors off ’05 TC and never looked back.

    Louise

  13. namflashback says:

    Bruce, all completely reasonable statements.

    “Development” notwithstanding — is Gagner contributing any more than Row-bear Nillson right now?

    The health of Moreau and Pisani and the performance of Nilsson will make the decision.

    Get Pisani back and push one of Gagner/Stortini/Nillson out of the lineup.

    MacT is wanting for a LW who can hang with HH. I think that is Cogliano or Sanderson. He’s already pairing Horc with Cogs on the PK — so that makes for a natural shift management.

    Cogs-Horc-Hemmer EV2(using gay player nicknames)
    Tico-Stoll-Pies EV1
    Sandy-Marty-Brodz EV3
    Penns-Gags-Nills EV4
    not sure if Stortini is required (alternately Stortini up with Tico-Stoll, Pies to the EV4 line)

    and if Moreau ever plays again:

    Sandy-Horc-Hemmer EV2(using gay player nicknames)
    Tico-Stoll-Pies EV1
    Moreau-Marty-Brodz EV3
    Penns-Cogs-Nills/Gags EV4

  14. Slipper says:

    Bruce: Don’t know if you’ve perused this site, but it has alot of what you say you’re seeking. I’m not sure whether he eliminates EN’s, but shorties are discluded for sure. Anyway you can get GF, GA, GF/60, GA/60, and Corsi (shots taken for versus shots taken against) at Gabe Dejardins site.

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/2007/5_on_5.php

  15. Slipper says:

    Sam Gagner 3.92 GA/60 Corsi -75

    Robert Nilsson 1.94 GA/60 Corsi -23

    Right now Nilsson is better, but he should be, right?

  16. choppystride says:

    Personally, I think Gagner projects to be another Henrik Sedin. That’s assuming that he will put in the conditioning work like the Sedins have done / have been doing. Given the culture of the Oilers and what he’s demonstrated thus far, I think it’s a very good bet that he will.

    If he does turn out this way, we will certainly have an excellent player. However, I see that as his ceiling. I think his skating will be something that will always hold him back from entering the Zetterberg category.

    Gun to the head, I think the 3 players on that list that will turn into the best difference makers are Kane, Toews, and Backstrom.

  17. Bank Shot says:

    If we’re going with comps then I’d go with Gagner=Tanguay.

    Both guys that are more subtle/ nifty then flashy. Both also have incredible vision on the ice, and both lack the frame/physical abilities to truly dominate at the NHL level.

    Gagner seems to be less of a mental case then Tanguay though which is encouraging.

    Cogliano something like Brendan Morrison/Andy McDonald. There certainly aren’t alot of players with Cogliano’s speed. He might break the mold if he develops in all areas.

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