Do you have any idea how stubborn I can get on a player? Ask me about Chris Hajt.
Devan Dubnyk’s pro career is going to come down to one word: consistency.
In his first 10 AHL games this season, Dubnyk’s SP (.902) is the best among first year goaltenders in the league. In games he’s played well in, his SP’s are .941, .946, .917, .938 and .955.
His poor games? .875, .889, .897, .806, .769.
Dubnyk is continuing a trend from junior that sees him give up a large number of powerplay goals (2 last night, 11 of his 30 goals against are PP goals).
His month by month SP’s are all over the place:
Dubnyk has played about 33% of his team’s minutes so far this season, and has gone 6 or 7 days without playing plus he’s played in a mop-up role in blowouts a time or two as well. Speaking of 33%, in those minutes he’s allowed 11 of the 26 powerplay goals against for Springfield (42%) which is within the realm of “random” but we’ll add it to the list.
I don’t have a clue how teams develop goalies for the National Hockey League, but Dubnyk’s route would have to be described as “slow lane.” His .921SP in the ECHL last season would seem to be a nice number in any league where they play in earnest, but I always look to Asiaoil on these matters.
Asia has all kinds of well thought out theories on goalies, one of the most important in DD’s case being EV SP. The guy seems to have faced a large number of 5-0n-4 situations in his career and there’s evidence he’s being affected somewhat again this season.
In a post about Dubnyk not long ago, James Mirtle brought up a point in the comments section which said “Dubnyk was the best goaltender to wear a Blazers uniform in the decade or so I watched that team. He made an impact as a 16-year-old (and boy was he gangly back then) and never got enough credit for backstopping some pretty awful Kamloops teams into the playoffs. I think he’ll have an NHL career. You wonder if the adage about big defencemen holds true for netminders; it would certainly make sense that it takes longer for these guys to figure things out.
I think that’s about right. Rare is the goalie who comes to the NHL and has success right out of junior, and among big men it’s even harder to find. Ken Dryden was 23 when he was a phenom, his brother Dave didn’t arrive as a quality NHL goalie until 27, John Davidson came quickly but lost his career to injury. More recent examples would be welcome in the comments section.
Dubnyk’s age, size and flashes of brilliance (along with Asia’s ability to bring calm reason to an area of conversation that frankly baffles me) have me feeling pretty good about his future.