Desjardins NHLE (NCAA) 07-08

This is Jeff Petry. He is one of several NCAA prospects in the Oilers system having a very good year. According to Desjardins’ NHL equivalencies the Oilers have a few players from college who may end up being NHLers down the line.

Last week we looked at the AHL players and based on Gabriel’s magic number Rob Schremp is ready, Liam Reddox is a role playing third liner at this point, plus Marc Pouliot and JF Jacques have indeed taken the step backward we suspected.

Bisaillon and Spurgeon might actually be players if they stay healthy, Trukhno is struggling now that he’s seeing AAA curveballs and the Oilers have some guys in the AHL who will be elsewhere in the fall.

Let’s start the NCAA group by listing last season’s NHLE’s for the 06-07 college kids. Numbers are per 82gp and the bracketed number is the player’s age last season:

  1. Andrew Cogliano 17-19-36 (19)
  2. David Rohlfs 11-11-22 (22)
  3. Taylor Chorney 6-15-21 (19)
  4. Colin McDonald 10-3-13 (22)
  5. Cody Wild 5-7-12 (19)
  6. Geoff Paukovich 5-7-12 (20)
  7. Chris VandeVelde 2-4-6 (19)
  8. Matt Glasser 0-0-0 (19)

Cogliano’s number is a nice match for his NHL season, let’s put them together:

  • 06-07NHLE 82gp, 17-19-36 .439ppg
  • 07-08 NHL 53gp, 9-15-24 .453ppg

We don’t have his time on ice numbers for a year ago, but these could certainly be two seasons by the same player. Let’s look at the current group, once again Desjardins’ NHLE nicks college players and I put everything on a level playing field (82gp). Age in brackets:

  1. Cody Wild 6-20-26 (20) (up 14pts from last year)
  2. Chris Vande Velde 11-13-24 (20) (up 14pts from last year)
  3. Riley Nash 10-13-23 (18) (BCJHL last year)
  4. Taylor Chorney 2-19-21 (20) (same as last year)
  5. Jeff Petry 1-12-13 (19) (USHL last year)
  6. Robby Dee 1-2-3 (20) (USHL last year)
  7. Matt Glasser 1-1-2 (20) (up 2pts from last year)

It’s a pretty nice list, folks. The most impressive number belongs to Nash, as he is a full 2 years younger than the other guys at the top. Cody Wild’s number is exceptional and in fact all of the top 5 would have to be considered legit NHL prospects.

Let’s look a little closer as Nash. Here’s a list of a few recent Oilers prospect who were in the NCAA at the same age and their NHLE at 18:

  1. Mike Comrie 12-15-27
  2. Riley Nash 10-13-23
  3. Andrew Cogliano 8-11-19
  4. Shawn Horcoff 7-9-16

These 4 are not terribly similar players plus we’re going over a period of one decade here (plus we’re not allowing for year-to-year scoring fluctuation) but it does indicate Riley Nash is a player. Comrie’s offense and Horcoff’s skill set? Nice player if it’s so. As an aside, both Wild and Chorney are ahead of Tom Gilbert’s NHLE at the same age (20) and Petry is about where Gilbert was at the same age (19).

What does it all mean? I think we can reasonably argue the current crop of NCAA Oilers is the best we’ve ever seen as a group from American colleges. A full 5 players are on track as real prospects and I don’t recall that many in college at any time in this club’s history.

And Riley Nash might be special.

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18 Responses to "Desjardins NHLE (NCAA) 07-08"

  1. Lord Bob says:

    I believe I went on record being sceptical of the Petry selection and know I railed against the Nash pick (not to mention Gagner-over-Voracek).

    K-Lowe, if you’re reading, hire me for the scouting department and do exactly the opposite of what I say. You’ll never miss.

  2. dawgbone says:

    I remember looking up Nash after they picked him and being impressed.

    He lead his team in scoring as a 17 year old and he played on a relatively young team. I think looked up what Turris did.

    Turris put up significantly more points (36 more), but his team averaged out to be almost 1.5 years older than Nash’s team, and I have a pretty good feeling that helped out Turris a bit (though he’s still a hell of a player).

  3. Dennis says:

    LT: do you think there’s any chance they’ll ask Nash to come out after his freshman season? I guess we can use the Habs Higgins as his comp because that’s a guy that played in that same Conf and came out and was useful, right?

    Higgins played two seasons at Yale so obviously the Habs didn’t worry about the lack of games in that conf but I wonder if the Oilers will feel the same?

    Anyway, thanks for the post. It’s certainly optimistic.

    We might be fit to watch again come 2012.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Dennis: I think he’ll probably come out at 20, just like Cogliano. Pretty much all the good ones do, Horcoff was an exceptional to the rule in Oilers history (he blossomed in his senior year).

    He’s a pretty slight fellow which may be a consideration but at 6-1 (and 173 on draft day) if he can put on even 15 pounds and play at this level for this year and next I think he’d be a no-brainer for pro at 20.

  5. jon k says:

    I agree on your conclusion about the current NCAA prospects. Very nice group. No elite talent, but a lot of players with some nice skills and one player who seems to be a very good to excellent all-round player (Nash).

    It should be noted that Nash is 18 at this point and Petry is old for his freshman year, but it still holds that they are doing well.

    I’m somewhat wary of getting behind Wild being a blue chip prospect. His scoring fell dramatically last year with the team, and this year the scoring is way up but he’s not the top scoring D on his team.

    To a certain extent the same can be said for Vande Velde. Team scoring is high and he’s playing at least part of the time with blue chippers, so I think we need to curb our enthusiasm a bit.

    All in all though, a group to smile about. Now if only the Europeans and CHL’ers could make some noise.

  6. Guy Flaming says:

    but, but, but…

    “Angelo Esposito has soooooo much more upside. Ignore that his stats are dropping for the third consecutive year… the Oilers blew it!” – disgruntled and uninformed Oil fan#1

    “Who cares if his goal production this year is down almost 50%… Alexei Cherepanov was WAY better than the duds Lowe took!” – disgruntled and uninformed Oil fan #2

    The Nash selection caught me by suprise simply because I convinved myself that they were taking Backstrom after trading up (and went on the air saying so only to be proven wrong 20 seconds later!). I was pleasantly suprised when I started calling non-Oiler sources and every report I got on him was “big thumbs up”.

    I still don;t like that he chose Cornell over North Dakota and Denver though… just to play with his brother.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Guy: Did you mean Backlund?

  8. jon k says:

    Hey Guy, was listening to the Stu MacGregor interview, which lead me to taking a look at the Wheat Kings roster… I noticed that a 2009 draft eligible Brayden Schenn seems to be doing fairly well for a 16 year old. Any relation to Luke, and are there any very early reports or reviews on him? Both are from Saskatoon so…

  9. jon k says:

    Of particular note is that he’s at 1 PPG in WHL at 16, good for third in scoring on his team, and leads the team in +/-. Very interesting indeed.

  10. PunjabiOil says:

    Guy, the biggest reasons the fans were upset was passing up Cherepanov, and instead selecting Plante.

    I can’t blame them.

  11. Guy Flaming says:

    yeah I did mean Backlund… thanks. The guy Calgary got instead.

  12. Guy Flaming says:

    Jon K…

    That’s Luke Schenn’s little brother. He’s a forward and ISS already has him ranked as a top 5 in 2009. He was stellar at the U17′s last month.

  13. Eetu says:

    I dont’ think that having one NHLE factor for the whole of NCAA is a good idea. I have no comprehensive statistical evidence of this, but my gut feeling is that there would be a significant difference between NCAA conferences.

  14. Dennis says:

    Guy, is this a game you really want to play?

    I’m gonna ask this before I copy and paste one one of your Souray opinons:)

  15. Guy Flaming says:

    I’ll take my lumps when I deserve’em Dennis. What’d I do or say now?

  16. godot10 says:

    //I still don;t like that he chose Cornell over North Dakota and Denver though… just to play with his brother.//

    For the sake of argument….

    But he’s playing on the first line at Cornell, and probably would be getting far less ice time at one of the big hockey factories. Cornell would be a poor choice relatively speaking for the junior and senior years, but we don’t expect that he will be at Cornell for those years. Freshman and sophomore years at Cornell in a more prominent role might be just as good as a lesser role at a hockey factory.

  17. Lowetide says:

    eetu: I’m fairly certain you’re right but Desjardins’ number is the best we have and the biggest factor (Nash is 18 and some of the guys he is playing against are as old as 24) is true across the board.

  18. Dennis says:

    Guy, you really shouldn’t talk about liking Souray because he’s a leader but at the same time go after guys who like to rail on the Oilers scouting.

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