Springfield EV scoring

JF Jacques (27) and Colin McDonald (18) seem to have the goalie surrounded on this play.

I’m interested in looking at the AHL stats for the Falcons’ forwards, specifically the EV numbers. Why? Well it’s a fair indicator of the type of minutes these players would get in the show (there’s no real use adding in Pouliot’s PP numbers, we know he isn’t getting cherry time if and when he gets called up) and the one player who we’re punishing most (Schremp) needs to be successful at EVs before he makes it in the NHL. Everything we’ve read about him, from draft day to today, tells us he is an outstanding offensive player when given plenty of time and freedom.

How is he doing at EVs, when the opposition has someone marking him? Much better than last season and I think that’s news. Last year, Schremp’s EV points-per-game total was .362. This season? Much better:

  1. Patrick Thoresen 23gp, 8-7-15 (.652) *now with Oilers
  2. Liam Reddox 33gp, 9-8-17 (.515)
  3. Rob Schremp 41gp, 5-15-20 (.488)
  4. Marc Pouliot 31gp, 5-8-13 (.419)
  5. JF Jacques 36gp, 6-9-15 (.417)
  6. Tyler Spurgeon 12gp, 1-3-4 (.333)
  7. Colin McDonald 41gp, 5-6-11 (.268)
  8. Troy Bodie 36gp, 6-3-9 (.250)
  9. Tim Sestito 43gp, 4-6-10 (.233)
  10. Slava Trukhno 32gp, 2-3-5 (.156)
  11. Fredrik Johansson 25gp, 3-0-3 (.120)

Those are pretty interesting numbers. Pouliot is almost exactly where he was one year ago (.424) and none of the current AHLers is better than Nilsson was in the AHL at EVs last season (69gp, 10-29-39, .565).

Just for fun, here are the PP points-per-game:

  1. Rob Schremp 41gp, 5-16-21 (.513)
  2. Marc Pouliot 31gp, 5-7-12 (.387)
  3. Slava Trukhno 32gp, 3-5-8 (.250)
  4. Tyler Spurgeon 12gp, 0-3-3 (.250)
  5. JF Jacques 36gp, 5-3-8 (.222)
  6. Patrick Thoresen 25gp, 4-1-5 (.217)
  7. Liam Reddox 33gp, 1-6-7 (.212)
  8. Colin McDonald 41gp, 4-4-8 (.195)

What does it all mean? Schremp’s a helluva PP performer in the AHL, he may be a guy who could step right onto the 2nd PP unit in Edmonton (although one wonders if MacT would want to mess with anything to do with the majestic Oilers powerplay as it stands). He’s also one of two obvious choices for callup. The other, based on stats, is Liam Reddox. Where does this put the 2003 draft (Pouliot, Jacques and McDonald)? Trailing the 2004 kids from every angle.

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19 Responses to "Springfield EV scoring"

  1. dawgbone says:

    In fairness to the horrible Oilers PP… in their last 23 games (since the beginning of December), they are 18/94, which is 19.1%.

    That would put them tied for 7th overall with the Florida Panthers.

  2. Lowetide says:

    db: I know it’s better, but the second unit (or any group without Hemsky) looks pretty bad to me. I’m not usually in agreement with Bryan over at HF, but imo Schremp is a guy you might at least try on the 2nd PP unit.

    He’s a kid, but he’s also gifted in that one narrow view. Since this is the season of ’50 is as 50 does’ and Schremp is one of the 50 I’d like to see what he can do.

    Since the Oilers are all about development, why not develop?

  3. dawgbone says:

    Looking at the numbers, our 2nd pp unit is responsible for 6 of the 18 goals. A 2:1 ratio seems pretty good by my eye.

    Part of the issue is that with the sporadic play of a guy like Nilsson (who has been very good on the PP), you can’t always spot him in the lineup.

    If his consistency improves everywhere else, our 2nd PP of Gagner, Cogs and Nilsson isn’t a bad little unit.

    And even if Schremp does come up, who goes out? He isn’t as good 5 on 5 as anyone else in the lineup, and is his trade-off on the 2nd PP enough?

  4. Lowetide says:

    Well if we’re talking winning hockey games everything you say makes sense. However, the Oilers are now developing NHL players so bringing Schremp up is the right thing to do.

    As for who to take out of the lineup, I suggest birth certificates. Anyone born before 1984 needs to be treated with distrust.

  5. Black Dog says:

    Yeah, the sooner we get rid of the veterans the better! Ride em out of town on a rail, every single one of them! The bums.

    BTW LT, 50 is as 50 does … beauty line. Deserves to be in the lexicon or whatever Andy calls it.

    MacT’s remarks about Tarnstrom the other night did it for me. He just confirmed what we have known all along. Playing the kids is more important then winning games. What was funny though is how he couched it – “All things being equal, we are going to play the kids.”

    Of course, neither Smid nor Grebeshkov is Tarnstrom’s equal, but that’s besides the point.

    As for those hoping to cleanse the lineup of vets and replace them with kids, as at least one commenter in the game thread from last night suggested cheerily, what do you think last spring’s team was made up of? It was exactly that. A handful of NHL players and a bunch of kids.

    That worked out pretty well.

    I think they keep Schremp in the minors all year myself. This is Nilsson’s chance right now. If he makes do then he stays – if not, his job is Schremp’s to lose next fall. Until then, barring injury, Schremp continues to hone his craft in Springfield.

  6. Dennis says:

    Yeah, I think Pat’s nailed it regarding one spot for either Nilsson or Schremp. The former’s a year older and the decision has to be made on him in a quicker fashion so let’s see what we have in Nilsson before we bring another kid into the mix.

    Nice dig on the PP as of late, DB. I know it’s alright to look at the overall picture as well but the Oilers PP has been going good for awhile now.

    Finally, Lain, I really don’t see what the point is of even worrying about a second PP unit. Seriously, how many teams have the talent to bother to fuck with a second PP unit and why would you bother doing it in the first place? Get your best five guys and send them out there for the first 90 seconds and just go from there. Why worry about finding 10 players to split time when you can just ride your best five?

    Makes sense, no?

  7. Lowetide says:

    I agree Nilsson needs the rest of the season to get his 500 at-bats, but imo the jury is still out on him. Maybe it’s optics because of the deal, and maybe it’s because so many have failed recently in the same role, but I don’t recall many getting this kind of opportunity and believe one could argue more production could be expected.

    As for worrying about the second PP, if they’re going to develop Schremp they need to put him in a position to succeed and that’s probably the PP.

    Does anyone think he could help the top unit?

  8. Dennis says:

    Oh, I think it has a lot to do with optics. Just think back to what the Oilers tried to do with Smid and how they handled him last season; that would not have been done had he not been one of the crown jewels of the Pronger bounty.

    I listed 12′s PTS/60 at both EV and PP and I can’t quibble a whole lot with the fellow. Would I have liked to see Pouliot get that chance?

    No question.

  9. PunjabiOil says:

    LT: Nilsson has the 4th highest GD on the Oilers.

    He’s also posted relatively good PP rates/60, although a bulk of his points have been on ES.

  10. Lowetide says:

    I’m not saying he’s useless, PJ Oil. However, if we consider that the Oilers have plenty of options moving forward and he needs to establish himself.

    I don’t think he’s done that yet.

  11. Rand says:

    Where are you digging up the EV stats for AHL’ers?
    The AHL’s site is horrible for this sort of thing. You’re forced to dig through the league leader board for PPG/PPA for every single player one by one.

    Please tell me you’ve come across some wonderful mystical location that lays it out a bit more conveniently then that?

  12. Lowetide says:

    rand: No, I counted them player by player. I may have made a mistake but did double check.

  13. marriedtotheoil says:

    I really liked the looks of Reddox when I saw him play vs. Lowell a week ago. He plays with a lot of heart and acts utterly fearless with oppposing players 3x his size. He may not have been dealt the very highest talent hand, but he musters a lot of hustle.

  14. PunjabiOil says:

    I’m not saying he’s useless, PJ Oil. However, if we consider that the Oilers have plenty of options moving forward and he needs to establish himself.

    I agree to an extent. At the same time, I think he’s improved his game from earlier on in the season. I also think he’s a bit underrated defensively, and he’s used his speed to get back to break odd man rushes. He’s over 0.5 PPG with 6 games of TOI in the single digits and 2nd unit PP time.

    He hasn’t established himself quite yet, but he’s more of a playmaker (always has been) and one thing he hasn’t got yet is a quality shooter on his line. He had both Torres and Stoll earlier on, but both of them went into a dry spell.

    I don’t expect him to ever be a 1st line player, but a quality second liner who has great PP skills, absolutely.

    If it’s a Schremp or Nilsson situation, I don’t think twice who I keep around in the long run.

    It’s going to be a difficult time giving all these young players at-bats in the coming years.

  15. Lowetide says:

    I agree he’s become somewhat visible without the puck (back checking nicely on several plays, making a difference in areas not previously seen) but he’s also floating too much.

    Maybe I’m being a hard marker because of the deal (although I liked it at the time) but in order for that Smyth trade to have value at least one of these guys has to be worth more than the roster spot and where he’s hitting in the lineup.

    Right now Nilsson’s batting 5th and getting 7th slot results imo. He’s Tim Wallach as a young player.

  16. PunjabiOil says:

    I like Nilsson

  17. PunjabiOil says:

    Maybe I’m being a hard marker because of the deal (although I liked it at the time) but in order for that Smyth trade to have value at least one of these guys has to be worth more than the roster spot and where he’s hitting in the lineup.

    It’s pretty much left up to Plante

    I was hoping for Cherepanov, and I still don’t understand what the scouts saw in Plante that justified taking him over a guy who broke Pavel Bure’s Russian League record of goals by a 17 year old. I believe the Oilers had planned all along to draft out of need with the 15th overall pick – at least that’s how Lowe came across on an interview with CHED. The “need” was defenceman – and of course, needs changed pretty quickly after acquiring Pitkanen and Souray.

    O’Marra is a bust in my view. 1 assist in 13 AHL games. Not even a PPG in the ECHL. He didn’t show much offensively in junior either. At least with MAP, I’m confident he’ll fit into the NHL in at least a checking role. Perhaps injuries killed O’Marra’s career, or he was simply overrated based on the ”hitting” factor.

    Nilsson is still young LT. 22, and shown progress in his game. Here’s another guy who took a big jump at 23 and 24:

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php3?pid%5B%5D=34007

    Nobody knows at what rate prospects will develop.

  18. RiversQ says:

    Nilsson could be a decent complementary player, but I think LT’s point stands. The Oilers needed something from that Smyth deal to have a crack at being an elite talent.

    O’Marra?

    Nope. Never was a possibility really. This kid was a top 9 forward at best.

    Nilsson?

    Not likely. Could be a useful complementary player, but he’s not going to be a big difference maker IMO.

    Plante?

    Seems like lots of trouble here.

    So basically, the Oilers will manage to fill the roster spot with that deal. It was a mediocre finish to a massive cock up of a hockey asset.

  19. Bank Shot says:

    Nilsson could be a decent complementary player, but I think LT’s point stands. The Oilers needed something from that Smyth deal to have a crack at being an elite talent.

    I think it is a little much to expect to aquire an elite talent in a deadline deal. It basically never happens.

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