Update on the 2004 Draft Picks

This is Roman Tesliuk. When I last checked the numbers for the Oilers prospects 2004-07 Tesliuk hadn’t played a game yet. Now he’s playing, but in a lower tier league. The 2004 draft was 3.5 years ago and at this point in time we can probably see which players are off the pace based on their draft day selection.

(14th overall) G Devan Dubnyk: .903SP and a 3.30 GAA for the big man. His SP is lagging behind Delauriers (.921) and he has been wildly inconsistent this season. For where he was taken in the 2004 draft, he’s not covering the bet at this point in time but remains a solid prospect.

(25th overall) C Rob Schremp: 40gp, 10-31-41 in the AHL and he’s had a cup of coffee in the NHL this season. Looks like he’s the next guy in line for a callup and is deserving of a prolonged NHL audition. A pretty happy story based on his draft number, even the crazy Schremp fanbase seems to have settled down and stopped wailing over the struggles of the Hockey Jesus.

(44th overall) D Roman Tesliuk: 30gp, 5-1-6 in something called the Russian “High” League. Looks like a second tier minor league, maybe an ECHL level league over there. A guy who had some nice things written about him but we can safely write him off as a prospect I’d say. A fairly high pick, we can put up a big black X on the scouting department for this one.

(57th overall) C Geoff Paukovich: 35gp, 7-6-13 with Stockton of the ECHL. Left college early and has fallen flat. He’ll turn 22 in April. I think we can safely regard this player as an extreme long shot for the NHL based on where he is and at this particular age. You never know, but you sorta do. 57th overall is still in the range where NHL players are being drafted, so Paukovich would have to be considered a disappointment.

(112th overall) LW Liam Reddox: He’s already had an amazing season, certainly the best of any of the Oilers’ 2004 picks. After a full year in Stockton he’s played well for Springfield (32gp, 10-14-24) and incredibly made his NHL debut. A nice feather in the cap for the Oilers’ procurement department, he’s carrying the mail (with Schremp) for the Oilers 2004 draft class.

(146th overall) D Bryan Young: You know, he’s played in the NHL each of the last two seasons, but this has been a very tough one for him. Young’s plus minus (-13) compares poorly to his number in the AHL last season (-3 in 32GP) and frankly I’m wondering if he’s playing through an injury. Either way he’s hit a wall as a pro and will need to turn it around. Certainly has covered the bet based on draft number.

(177th overall) D Max Gordichuk: Drafted by the Oilers because they were impressed with him while scouting Tesliuk, Gordichuk went bust faster than any other Oiler in this draft class. I believe he’s no longer playing organized hockey.

(208th overall) RW Stephane Goulet: When you draft skill in the 200s there’s usually a hitch in the giddy-up. With Goulet he’s got speed issues and O by the way he isn’t scoring. You can’t really fault a scouting staff for missing on a pick this late imo.

(242nd overall) C Tyler Spurgeon: Injured early and often, Spurgeon has shown flashes of being a solid role player in the Rem Murray-Kyle Brodziak family of players. He’s recovering from a concussion and in a recent Guy Flaming article we got this update: “He was told by a doctor down there that he probably should retire but it wasn’t a sports doctor it was just a regular doctor in a hospital,” said Prendergast. “But [team physician] Dr. Naidu has looked at him and we have faith that he’s going to play again this year.” Those damn regular doctors.

(274th overall) G Bjorn Bjurling: Speaking of Flaming, there may be something up with this player and Flaming is the source. In that post comes the line Bjurling’s stats line is an attractive 19 GP, 2.33 GAA (3rd best in SEL) and .934 save% (Best in SEL). He’s still a long shot but might be the second coming of Jussi Markkanen. At that point in the draft if he plays an NHL game it’s a win.

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16 Responses to "Update on the 2004 Draft Picks"

  1. doritogrande says:

    I’m curious. How do you consider Liam Reddox as having the “best season of the 2004 picks”. Schremp’s outscoring him at the AHL level, and their games this season in Edmonton (Schremp’s 2 to Reddox’s 1) would seem a wash.

    Does Reddox have some sort of dirt on you, or do you really love those late round picks?

  2. Lowetide says:

    I think Reddox is having a better season so far than Schremp. Although Schremp has more points, their EV point totals are:

    Schremp 40gp, 5-15-20, .500ppg
    Reddox 32gp, 9-8-17, .531ppg

    Also, Schremp is -3, Reddox +6. Reddox is a rookie, this is Schremp’s second season in the AHL.

    The coach’s words are always positive on Reddox, less so on Schremp.

    Quoting KP on Reddox from a recent Flaming article: “He’s on the first penalty kill, the first power play and all the things we thought he was going to do when we took him from Peterborough are what he’s become.”

    Same article, KP on Schremp: “He still has a lot of work to do to play there in the NHL, but whatever deficiencies we felt he may have had in his skating they’re not showing up as much on the wing. He’s just got to learn to compete in the tough areas in the corners and along the wall a bit more.”

    I think Reddox has had a better year.

  3. Guy Flaming says:

    Forget Markkanen, he was in the NHL much younger but I think a good comparison (should things work out) would be Niklas Backtrom in Minnesota who in 2006-07 came over as a 29 year old and not only made the NHL but played 41 games.

    Backstrom was never drafted, Bjurling would have to be considered a gem if he panned out at all.

    Thanks for giving out the link L.T.

  4. Ribs says:

    If there was one player I thought I would never hear of again after training camp 2 years ago it was definitely Liam Reddox. He was the smallest guy on the ice by far and was caught out of position every shift he played. His improvement has been nothing less than miraculous in my eyes. If there is a Fernando out there amongst Oiler prospects, he’s the guy.

  5. doritogrande says:

    Ok, I can see it that way LT. But what has impressed me about Schremp is his ability to recover from major injury at the end of last season, and do what he’s doing on a much more consistent basis than what he did last year. In fact, he’s quite the opposite when compared with another prospect I held in high regard at the beginning of the season, Ryan O’Marra.

    The fact that Schremp has stayed injury free this year whereas Reddox hasn’t is a bit of a tell for me. I can’t remember the type or severity of Reddox’s injury, so for argument’s sake I’ll assume it was minor and hasn’t affected his play since. Schremp’s lack of injury this year says to me he’s better conditioned and is having some good luck, both improvements on last year.

    The comment about Reddox being an AHL rookie this year means nothing ot me. It actually shows us how terrible of a year Liam had last year. That’s something that should not be applied against Schremp in this argument.

    Why would you not take Powerplay points into consideration? The powerplay is something where the Oilers have struggled all year long. Like you said, it should be expected that Schremp would be next in line for a call-up, and figures to be much better than he has been in recent outings. In terms of the prospect pool, Schremp is our only remaining “offensive prospect”, the rest are role players. The team already has it’s role players, and some others in the pressbox.

    To you, Reddox may be having the better year. But to me, Schremp’s year has the potential to be much better, whereas Reddox’s year will probably be more of the same.

  6. Lowetide says:

    dorito: I think Schremp IS having a good season, especially considering that he came from farther back (with the off-season surgery). I’m not saying Reddox is a better prospect than Schremp, but I do think he’s having a better season.

    Having said that, it isn’t like they are worlds apart either.

    As for PP points, certainly they are a consideration but if we’re talking about Schremp’s progress as a player we’d probably need to see some forward movement in that EV ppg category.

    Just for the sake of it, Schremp’s year over year EV ppg in the AHL:

    06-07 (20) 69gp, 8-17-25, .362
    07-08 (21) 40gp, 5-15-20, .500

    So he’s certainly improved in that category.

  7. ClaytonMagnet says:

    Anyone else hoping we get to hear Rod Phillips say “Bjorn Bjurling” on a regular basis?

  8. PunjabiOil says:

    Nice entry. Outside this blog, there isn’t a market for this type of info.

    Ah, Roman Tesliuk.

    I remember his name and the rave reviews he was receiving back then. Along with Lynch and Woywitka, Oiler fans were confident the defense was going to set.

    3 years later, none of the above mentioned are in the NHL.

    That’s why I tend to curb my enthusiasm on guys like Chorney, Petry, Plante. Until I see the results at the NHL level…

    Schremp vs Reddox

    Reddox has improved this year, but he’s not a 20 year old rookie. He had a year of experience in the ECHL. As for the plus/minus, I’d imagine Schremp going against the opponents best.

  9. PunjabiOil says:

    Forgot to mention the Paukovich pick. Never liked it then – when he was drafted, KP remarked that they feel he’ll be a good solid energy 4th liner.

    What’s the point of drafting guys who you feel have a 4th line potential? That too in the 2nd round? A Martin Gelinas is available for 700,000 on the UFA market – go for the home runs in rounds 1 and 2.

    I believe that pick was acquired when trading Chimera to Phoenix. Chimera has since turned into a useful player. The Oilers wanted to give Rita an opportunity with a one-way contract, but he didn’t work out either and was packaged with Cross for Tarnstrom. Cross was then subsequently moved to Detroit for a 5th rounder.

    “Damn I’m good”
    — Ace Ventura

  10. PunjabiOil says:

    (14th overall) G Devan Dubnyk: .903SP and a 3.30 GAA for the big man. His SP is lagging behind Delauriers (.921) and he has been wildly inconsistent this season. For where he was taken in the 2004 draft, he’s not covering the bet at this point in time but remains a solid prospect.

    I like Dubnyk. I think he’ll carve out a career, although it’s difficult to predict development [i.e. who envisioned JDD's season this year?]

    However, reading Bob McCowns, “100 Greatest Hockey Arguments” (Great read LT, I really recommend everyone pick up a copy, or read it at chapters, or reserve it from the library – a modern day hockey fans must read), he illustrates with compelling evidence as to why teams should avoid drafting goaltenders in the 1st round. Not only is the success rate of 1st round drafted goaltenders relatively low, they’re usually 22-23-24 before they can handle NHL quality SOG. Effectively, they’re only 3-4-5 years from UFA.

    The Oilers wanted Stafford, but Buffalo took him. Out of the remaining 1st round:

    http://hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2004e.html

    Do you feel the Oilers made the right choice taking DD?

    Radulov was taken at 15. Zajac at 20. Wolski at 21. Meszaros at 23. Mike Green at 29.

    Those are the only real established NHL players taken after the Oilers pick. Though there are still some good players in that class that have yet to make the NHL.

  11. Jamie says:

    Bjurling is an interesting character. He is now ranked first in statistics among goalies in the SEL.
    There was a big feature in yesterday’s newspaper Sportbladet. For those interested, I’ll be doing some translations and posting them on my blog http://scoutingsweden.blogspot.com later today.

  12. Lowetide says:

    PJ Oil: I was actually very upset they took Dubnyk. I was on HF Chat at the time and thought they’d take Schremp (who was ranked top 10 by ISS) but they passed on him.

    Taking G in the first round not only is a bad bet it’s also something EDM doesn’t do often.

    As for Reddox vs. Schremp, I’m not certain about the tough minutes argument. I’ve read some things that indicate both have played against the better opposition but can’t really give it much weight since the source is either an Oiler scout or a writer/fan of unknown quality.

  13. therealdeal says:

    You have to wonder with that sort of draft success rate if it doesn’t have more to do with luck than anything else. Hell you could’ve probably spun a wheel and picked 14 names and came up with one marginal NHLer.

  14. Jonathan says:

    Ten years of 1st round goalies:

    05- Price, Rask
    04- Dubnyk, Schwarz, Schneider
    03- Fleury
    02- Lehtonen, Ward, Toivonen
    01- Leclaire, Bacashiua, Munro
    00- DiPietro, Krahn
    99- Finley, Ouellet, Ahonen
    98- DesRochers, Chouinard
    97- Luongo, Noronen, Damphousse
    96- Hillier
    95- Giguere, Biron, Boucher, Denis

    Now maybe it’s just me, but regardless of position I think teams should always go BPA. If you’re sold on a guy (unless your name is Milbury) take him. Sure, a goalie might only be 5yrs away from UFA when he hits the big leagues, but the success rate to me, although not great, doesn’t seem much lower than for other positions, as most of the misses were late picks, and the only high pick to miss (Finley at 6) was in a weak draft (Patrik Stefan went 1st overall), and the value of a great goalie is such that even if you can’t resign him, you should get quality in return (although, Luongo was dealt for Parrish and Kvasha, and for some reason Milbury felt obliged to throw in Jokinen to sweeten the pot).

  15. allan says:

    Max Gordichuk is playing for the UBC Thunderbirds this year.

    He’s probably the slowest player I’ve seen in the CIS. I’m really impressed he made it that far with his skating skill – it would take a miracle for him to get to Scott Ferguson’s level.

  16. Master Lok says:

    An interesting comparison of goalies. What if it turns out that 9th rounder Bjorn Bjurling plays more NHL games than 1st rounder Devan Dubnyk?

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