10 Things We Know Tonight We Didn’t Know this Morning

Look at these two mugs. Remember that old song “Beauty is only Skin Deep” (I think) by the Temptations? This photo was taken right after the win over the Ducks and will serve as a high water mark for this franchise through the end of the decade.

The 2006 trade deadline will probably serve as Kevin Lowe’s high water mark and one imagines he wanted to do something today that energized the fanbase.

Alas, it was not to be. Word from the GM this afternoon that Stoll was in play (if you read between the lines that’s what he said) but the return wasn’t good enough. He also told us that Dwayne Roloson didn’t get much love and Lowe looked like he had a stress free day.

I think there are some things we can assume based on how today went and who is still here.

  1. Marty Reasoner may be back in the fall. Think about it: the Oilers have a capable replacement in the minors (Pouliot) and Marty may have been able to help out a few teams while clearing the way for another young player. MacT’s comments on him recently combined with the fact he remains an Oiler have convinced me Marty’s back in 08-09.
  2. The French Connection is going to need to run faster than Popeye Doyle and Cloudy Russo in that scene where one is Santa Claus and the other is a hotdog vendor (I forget which is which). Marc Pouliot and JF Jacques got no room cleared for them today and the fact that Ethan rifles is out for the season didn’t inspire a call to Springfield. Whatever shithouse they’re in I don’t want to know.
  3. Dwayne Roloson is here until this time next season. With Ottawa staring another summer in the face due to possibly the most hilarious goalie tandem since Winnipeg employed Pokey Reddick and Alain Chevrier. Roloson is caught now between a rock and a hard place and one hopes he can show enough between now and the end of the season to be regarded as more than a suck on the cap heading into the fall.
  4. Steve Staios is highly valued by the Oilers. A few NHL defensemen were going at high prices this deadline as is usually the case. Staios is superior to a few guys who went today and the Oilers could have picked up some help for the draft this summer by dumping him today. It’s a smart move by Lowe, but I imagine he was tempted.
  5. Geoff Sanderson is done. When you’re Geoff Sanderson and you don’t get dealt today the NHL is telling you that it’s over. Sad day for a guy who had a nice career.
  6. Kevin Lowe believes this season was more about injuries than inability. He said as much today by not moving some pieces that frankly he should move out of town if he believes this team as currently built can’t make it happen. Among the obvious players in this category are Denis Grebeshkov and Matt Greene.
  7. Jarret Stoll is in the long range plans. If he wasn’t, they would have dealt him today. Stoll isn’t going to take a cut from $2.2M in the fall and his putrid output at EVs (.70/60) trails offensive monsters like Denis Grebeshkov, Zack Stortini and Marty Reasoner. I know he’s faced quality competition but he’s failing at it badly. If they believe he’s going to improve next season then it’s worth the bet but 2.2M players who score 2-6-8 in 12 hours of equal strength time are rare for a reason. If they got an offer of any consequence today one could argue they should have taken it.
  8. The Oilers will be active at the draft. Edmonton has so many forwards now that are either on the roster, injured, playing in the AHL or ECHL or in Europe but knocking (hello Bumagin!) that they’ll have to clear the decks a little before the fall. Hell, just listing the left wingers is a chore: Penner, Torres, Moreau, Cogliano, Glencross, Jacques, Reddox, Trukhno with only the final 2 sure AHLers (and Cogliano a possible C but that backs up the depth chart there to 8 as well).
  9. They may have been inactive because of the change of ownership. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Katz has had some kind of impact on the long term decision making process already. A big trade like Richards would have required Katz’ input, right? Now that assumes the Oilers were players and that Richard would waive his NTC to come here but you get the point.
  10. They may have been inactive because a coaching change is coming. Bryn Griffiths has been floating this idea lately and I’ve suggested Lowe might get bumped upstairs in the past. Possibly the two moves would be connected? Either way a new coach coming in would definitely want to have input on the roster moving forward so perhaps Schremp or Pouliot not being dealt today is with that in mind.

Either way, credit to Kevin Lowe for the one deadline deal he did make this year. Curtis Glencross is working out just fine.

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29 Responses to "10 Things We Know Tonight We Didn’t Know this Morning"

  1. Pat H says:

    great post LT. Point 9 (on Katz) is something I hadn’t considered. Interesting thought. I’m pleased but saddened about what you say in point 1 – pleased because I think I echoed that same sentiment in an earlier post you had that discussed dealing Reasoner; saddened because it’s ridiculous that this is a reality.

    Lowe could have done worse, I suppose. But it’s pretty funny to talk about zero activity as a ‘positive’. I guess that’s what you do when you don’t have a ‘whole lot of holes’.

  2. DBO says:

    Seems like Lowe really hopes to sign Stoll for a “deal” (if you call $2.4 mill a deal). Most of us thought if Stoll played as well this year as last we’d be signing him to a $4 mill deal, so if he rebounds next season we’re OK. Seems like a lot of if’s for next year:
    1. If Stoll plays better at a discount (something LT has mentioned as a necessity in order to compete).
    2. The kids take another step forward and become 18 minute per night top 6 forwards.
    3. If our injury crew has a healthy season and plays solidly (Moreau, Pisani, Torres).
    4. if Horcoff and Souray come back fully healthy and playing at their top level.
    5. If Pitkanen takes the step to #1D, or we deal him for an impact player.
    6. if Garon is for real and takes the reigns all of next year.
    7. If our energy line keeps it up and plays 9 – 10 minutes a night.

    If all this happens we might compete for a playoff spot. unfortunatley if all this goes right I doubt we are Cup contenders. that’s a lot of if’s for next year with the team as is. Gotta think KLowe makes some moves at the draft, but today sounded like he wants another chance to prove he made the right moves this past off season.

  3. heed says:

    i just don’t see us getting any kind of return for reasoner that would make it worth even trading the guy. 5th or 6th round pick possibly. i don’t see it as proof he gets resigned either. i’m sure pouliot and schremp will get their shots before the end of this season and i’m sure they will do squat with them (although i have more faith in pouliot).

  4. Dennis says:

    LT: have you listened to the KP interview on the official site?

    I think there’s a couple of paras in there that you might want to transcribe.

    Just a teaser: if we believed KP was in the know or had any say, Reddox and Pouliot will be the Falcons that get to finish out this season with the big club.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Dennis: I haven’t but I will. This is actually a good way to measure KP’s influence on things. If they callup Schremp and Jacques then we’ll know. :-)

  6. PunjabiOil says:

    Regarding Pouliot and Schremp:

    Matheson may be a bit of an apologist, but he’s connected. When he mentions they are on the block, I don’t have second doubts.

    Doesn’t appear as if the Oilers have any interest calling up Schremp.

    As for Stoll, I’m not sure what happened. His -17 is absolutely brutal. For a guy who put up 68 in 82 (+4), and then 39 in 51 (+2), how does he go down to 27 in 61 (-17)? Is it all due to the concussions? Perhaps there is still value in the market for him – in any case, I’m hesitant locking him up long term.

    I hope this summer the Oilers replace Lowe with Doug Armstrong. What a talented Dallas team he built. That Modano contract was astute.

  7. godot10 says:

    I think the reason that Stoll was not traded has more to do with the Oiler injury situation more than any else. Reasoner wasn’t offered up for a 7th round pick for the same reason. The Oilers don’t want to go 2-17 like last year.

    Stoll and Reasoner important on the PK and faceoffs, which are critical to not falling completely over the cliff like last year.

    I think only one of the two will be back, unless another centre comes in a trade.

    Mark Smith was obviously the key to the Brad Richards deal. A young likely #1 goaltender.

  8. mc79hockey says:

    Nice, there was interest in one of Stoll and Roloson…and Lowe pretty much just gave away that it was Stoll.

  9. uni says:

    PB, I’m going to have have to say yes concussions can have that large of an effect. From the few guys that I know who have only had mild concussions they said they were really out of it, and one of them took over 9 months before he was even near back to rights.

    Here’s hoping that Stoll’s concussion problems are a thing of the past and he can round back into 2007 form. From the Oilers PPV he looked like a real team guy, well that and the Dvo love tap.

  10. Bohologo says:

    LT, here’s a Bill James piece on Craig Biggio:

    Who is the Oilers Biggio? (While James still liked him) Is there one?

    Back to the post: standing with this year’s hand assumes a) no sophomore slump for any of the kids; b) injured guys return to top form (Stoll is a cautionary tale here); and c) the cap goes enough to diminish the deleterious effects of the Souray contract. Lots of hopeful assumptions here. Could be a long year next season.

  11. Asiaoil says:

    Lowe’s entire in-season accomplishment as GM of the Oilers this season was to obtain a decent 4th line UFA-to-be winger. On a team as unbalanced as this team was in August – and with all the injuries – this amounts to a pathetic failure to anything helpful. I guess you could say he didn’t screw things up worse – but the little Glen X move shows that positive things can happen if you are awake even half the time as a GM.

  12. PunjabiOil says:

    Kevin Lowe is still talking about ”getting back into the playoff race” on the Oilers site.

    Good grief, how delusional does he think fans are?

  13. Mr DeBakey says:

    KP was on Just a Game tonite

    - The Rangers weren’t interested in Schremp, it was Pouliot
    - Pouliot has been the best Falcon recently
    - Peckham has been the best D in recent games
    - Reddox has been the Falcon who soared the highest this season. Which explains the Thoreson move, I guess.
    - many of the of the injured Falcons are ready to take flight again.
    - the Oilers had too many injuries to trade anything away today.
    - He’s been talking to Mihknov; the Big Guy feels he has some unfinished business here in E-town, and is interested in coming back. They will talk after the season.

  14. Lowetide says:

    KP Notes:

    1. Quiet from the get-go today.
    2. We’re very young team right now, there were certain things we thought might be able to help us but they weren’t available.
    3. Pro scouts will now zero in on free agents.
    4. 5 or 6 Springfield players will fight for NHL jobs in the fall.
    5. Very good draft class.
    6. Taylor Chorney hopefully will come out of school this year we think is a high end prospect, Bumagin is a guy we’re looking at coming over from Europe, Cody Wild coming out of Providence College.
    7. It’s time maybe for players like Liam Reddox and Marc Pouliot to sort of come up here and take a run at making a job for themselves for next year.
    8. JDD and DD have come along very well for us.
    9. Over the summer we’ll be looking to fill with one more defensan.
    10. Very happy with the young line, Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky and the 4line of GlenX-Brodziak-Storts.
    11. Fill the center spot on 3line with maybe Pouliot in the fall.
    12. Positives are Gilbert, Pitkanen and Grebeshkov.

    Anyone want to bet Pouliot doesn’t get a callup this season?

  15. Mr DeBakey says:

    Where is the game thread?

    “This is Norm Ullman. The Provost native was a beauty player for several seasons for the Red Wings….”

  16. Gord says:

    - He’s been talking to Mihknov; the Big Guy feels he has some unfinished business here in E-town, and is interested in coming back. They will talk after the season.


  17. LJ says:

    Re: Mikhnov, I looked at his RSL stats and I’m not sure they translate. While he’s at a 0.67ppg clip, which is good for 33rd overall in the RSL, there are some dubious ex-NHLers with better averages, including Nils Ekman, Oleg Saprikin and Jan freaking Bulis.


  18. Bank Shot says:

    KP is as about as reliable as the former Iraqi minister of propaganda.

    “Our army is crushing the American pig-dogs as we speak!”…as a tank brimming with celebrating Americans trundles past.

    I’m not really too optomistic about any farm hands coming in to sace the day. I think we’ll be waiting a couple of years for a couple of college kids to help out, and then no fresh meat until the 2009 draft starts bearing fruit.

    The had better hope they picked all the right guys to be on the team for the future, because there is little to no help on the way in the near future.

  19. jon k says:

    I don’t know if we can conclude a lot of these things based upon the lack of action today. There’s obviously no demand for most of the UFAs (Reasoner, Sanderson), but other players under contract may still be moving in the offseason or at the draft (Stoll, Torres, Roloson).

    There is also the fact that players on IR can’t be traded. I don’t recall where I heard, but I believe that it was stated on good authority that Torres would have been gone at the deadline if he wasn’t on the IR.

    I definitely agree that the draft and UFA deadline will be busy however. Should be interesting to see when Phoenix offers Marian Hossa 10 million over 7 years this July 1st.

  20. Matt says:

    LT, the key observation you make (which is clearly true, and possibly the only one the really matters) is #6. He does not realize (acknowledge, believe, pick one) that the Oilers have a LOFT problem, just a luck problem.

    If you (yes, you, personally) were paid a $50k fee by a group of Oiler fans to stage a Kevin Lowe Intervention, this would be my advice:

    Do an in-depth study of the teams that ended up finishing 22nd, 23rd, and 24th in the league every year since 2000. Gather lots of quotes from the game-by-game grind, like what the GM, coach, columnists, and fans thought the problems were *at the time*. Tally the reasons/excuses, and of course the injury issues.

    K-Lo’s problem (and that of many fans clearly) is that he thinks his team is the best but unluckiest 14th place team ever. This just in: all 14th place teams think that, and most of them have just as good a reason to.

  21. Schitzo says:

    I have to wonder if Lowe just likes Marty too much to dick him again. As useless as he is, he bleeds copper and blue. Missed the cup run only to re-sign back here for two years of suffering.
    Trading him would have been like shooting a puppy. The guilt isn’t worth the 7th rounder.

  22. Bruce says:

    Who is the Oilers Biggio? (While James still liked him) Is there one?

    Shawn Horcoff, surely.

  23. Dennis says:

    Mr. D, thanks for that. At least KP’s consistent, ie it appears he was selling Reddox and Pouliot as hard to Gregor as he was to Tencer.

    That Mikhnov thing worries me though

  24. Bohologo says:

    Bruce writes: Who is the Oilers Biggio? (While James still liked him) Is there one?

    Shawn Horcoff, surely.

    I don’t speak baseball, but that was also my guess.

  25. LJ says:

    schitzo: that kind of mutt loyalty is exactly the kind of thing that’s going to get reasoner re-signed for 2.5 over 2 years.

    do not want.

  26. Loxy says:

    If Kevin really likes Reasoner – he should’ve given him a run at the cup with another team in honour of the run he missed out on.

  27. HBomb says:

    I think only one of the two will be back, unless another centre comes in a trade.

    Horcoff, Gagner, Cogliano, Brodziak, Pouliot.

    I look at that group of five, and I think neither of Stoll or Reasoner are back next year. And given the fact we’re rebuilding, it makes sense to me to run with the kids. Stoll’s money is needed to pay Horcoff on an extension, and Reasoner can be replaced by Brodziak, because 19 is nothing more than a 4th liner at this point.

    If Stoll is back, he better not get much of a raise (if at all), and if Reasoner is back, it cannot be anything more than a one-year, $750K contract. And even then, I wouldn’t like it.

  28. doritogrande says:

    I like the possibility that Mikhnov might be back, and with Grebeshkov around this time it would surely make his transition much easier. Could he be the piece we’re missing for Gagner’s line? Mikhnov’s used to playing with a skilled C now (Yashin), so maybe he’s learned how to get in the proper area to snipe one of the kids’ nifty passes.

    I also have it from a source on another message board that Linus Omark is going to try and make the jump to N. America next year. He’s doing well in the SEL, and doesn’t seem to want to “Rita” himself to death over there. Don’t think he’s got the stuff to make the NHL right off the hop, but he’d be a nice fit in Springfield.

  29. Dennis says:

    HB: next season could go in so many ways; it’s enough to make one’s head spin.

    If the Oilers are married to the kids line for next year, and I imagine they’ll only do that if A: they can’t get anyone on the free market who can score and B: they don’t mind finishing in the lottery come ’09 then you could see Reasoner out the door.

    Otherwise, you could see both 16 and 19 back.

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