AHL Callups

In the last couple of weeks coach MacT has mentioned that Marc Pouliot is the likely next callup from the minors and that Rob Schremp is there for the long term.

I’m on record as being a Pouliot fan, in fact between the Hemsky and Cogliano drafts he’s the one player I felt would have found his way into the NHL as a regular by now. It has not happened.

Based on the boxcar numbers it would seem to me that Schremp is clear of Pouliot at this time. However, MacT and the Oilers must see something in Schremp’s game that is holding him back. I think it might be worth a closer look at the stats.

Here are the top 5 forwards for Springfield in terms of PP scoring:

  1. Rob Schremp 6-16-22
  2. Marc Pouliot 6-8-14
  3. JF Jacques 5-4-9
  4. Slava Trukhno 3-6-9
  5. Colin McDonald 4-4-8

A couple of points. I took these from the AHL site which isn’t very user friendly so there may be some small errors. Second, I didn’t use players who have been called up (Thoresen). In regard to powerplay points, Schremp is certainly carrying the mail. Pouliot has played 10 fewer games but their powerplay points-per-game this season favors Schremp by a wide margin (.468 for Schremp, .378 for Pouliot). Interesting to see that young Trukhno (.388) is on par with Pouliot despite having a poor season overall statistically.

Here are the 4 forwards I could find with SH points:

  1. Marc Pouliot 2-0-2
  2. JF Jacques 1-1-2
  3. Tim Sestito 1-0-1
  4. Tyler Spurgeron 0-1-1

No real surprise here, I guess we might have expected a veteran AHLer like Ben Simon to lead this category, then again Marc Pouliot is pretty much an AHL veteran at this time.

Next we come to EV stats, and I’ll list points-per game:

  1. Liam Reddox .474 (10-8-18)
  2. Rob Schremp .447 (5-16-21)
  3. JF Jacques .368 (5-9-14)
  4. Marc Pouliot .351 (5-8-13)
  5. Colin McDonald .234 (5-6-11)

Reddox has the edge here, despite slowing down a lot (10gp, 2-0-2 since December 22) mostly due to injury. Schremp is second best in this category, and we should also mention here that we don’t know the total minutes for each player which could skew things too.

Finally, plus minus. I’m not a big fan of the stat without knowing who is playing the tough minutes, but let’s list the numbers for the top 9 forwards anyway:

  1. Liam Reddox +5
  2. Troy Bodie -3
  3. Rob Schremp -5
  4. Ben Simon -5
  5. Slava Trukhno -9
  6. Marc Pouliot -10
  7. Tim Sestito -12
  8. JF Jacques -13
  9. Colin McDonald -15

This is quickly becoming a Liam Reddox thread but that’s a nice number compared to the others on the list. There’s puck luck and tough minutes and ebb and flow, but that’s a gap. Schremp is near the top here, with the 2003 draft sucking hind tit once again. You could make a case that Pouliot’s line is doing the heavy lifting and honestly that’s likely but that -10 looks pretty bad. Pouliot is -8 in the 17 games since December 21, he was -2 in the 20 games previous to December 21.

Based purely on stats, the difference between Schremp and Pouliot favors the kid from Syracuse. Logic then dictates that Schremp’s shortcomings (skating, playing away from the puck) fall into the “saw him good” category and can’t be supported by the numbers as we know them today.

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13 Responses to "AHL Callups"

  1. Ducey says:

    I think you have shown that no one should be called up! Since Schremp has just been moved to the wing he probably needs some AB’s in the AHL learning how to stay alive in the occasional corner he finds himself in. I see no need to bring him up. It would be interesting to see where he ranks in Takeaways, Giveaways and hits to perhaps get a better sense of his checking and defence. My sense is that his abilty to check anyone is likely sorely lacking.

    I think your point the other day that he occupies the same niche as Nilsson was right on. I can’t really see a role for Schremp with Nilsson somewhat entrenched and Sam G moving up the depth chart. Pouliot at least in theory brings a different set of skills to the team (more speed, bigger body, better defence). However, I would let Chicken Boy earn his way up. I am not sure he has and I think he might learn to take the off season more seriously if he is not recalled.

    If it is about long term development for MAP and Schremp, leave them in the A. If it is about the short term, a Toby Peterson would be more help to the Oil right now than either first rounder.

  2. Dennis says:

    LT: not sure if there’s been an audio posted today from the Oilers site but I’m wondering if MacT brought this up again today. Because I only remember seeing this in print once last week so I’m wondering where the twice came from.

    Not sure I’d believe it if Pouliot made his way to Edm right now. Even with a pivot being on the shelf, Oilers don’t seem like they want to play Thor or send him out to get claimed either; plus there’s Nilsson who’s had a push all season.

    14 forwards that include:

    - two fair-haired boys
    - new crush wearing a Blue Jacket
    - hard-wroking Stortini

    Where would Marc play?

  3. Lowetide says:

    ducey: Actually that was Dennis saying that Schremp occupies the same niche (it’s true, just want to send credit where it’s deserved).

    Pouliot’s comp all down the line (through junior and into 20-year old AHL season) was Stoll who seemed to be moving along nicely offensively until this season (although his EV totals were jazzed up by the PP total).

    Schremp, Pouliot and Jacques right now appear to be the Scarecrow, Tin Man and Cowardly Lion.

  4. Mr DeBakey says:

    Saw him small.

    With Gagliano & Cogner
    Chorney coming

    Thoreson, Reddox, Schremp are too small

    That’s not me talking
    [though I believe it]
    that’s Mactavish

  5. Lowetide says:

    Dennis: I think Pouliot might slide in for Gagner or Brodziak at some point. Both are bleeding GA/60 according to Desjardins and although both are clearly part of the future Pouliot may be too with Reasoner likely on his last few miles (despite the MacT love).

    Having said that, I don’t think he deserves it based purely on numbers.

  6. Dennis says:

    LT: I’m sorta inclined to agree with you but then I wonder why Gagner was shown so much love and maybe somewhere MP has a beef of his own.

    BTW, what about my “twice” question?

  7. Lowetide says:

    Dennis: I’m looking for it, I saw it somewhere although it may have been repeated info.

    As for Gagner, I think he came in from that junior tournament and looked so damn good compared to everyone else because he was weeks ahead in terms of training.

    You could make a strong argument imo that Schremp would have done more with Gagner’s minutes than Gagner has this season.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Dennis: I couldn’t find the reference so have changed the post. I did read something today that specifically tied MacT to both prospects and determined Pouliot was the preferred choice.

    The language was different enough for me to believe it was in fact a second quote but not being able to find it makes the point moot.

  9. godot10 says:

    Unless somebody else gets hurt, I think you can forget about callups until really late.

    MacT is going to circle the wagons with what he’s got now. He has chosen which young guys get the at-bats till all hope is lost, and that is the two “chosen” ones…Gagner and Cogliano.

    Nilsson now has two obstacles in his way for ice time, Sanderson and Glencross (three, if you count Stortini). Sanderson is going to demonstrate to Nilsson that showing up every game matters.

    And Glencross actually hits people, and the Oilers need hitting more than they need Nilsson’s sometimes offense.

  10. oilerdiehard says:

    With that plus/minus comparison. It may also be worth noting that Schremp spent a fairly large stretch of games on a line with MAP and JFJ.

    Reddox I believe has been out of the line up and injured. Through much of the Falcons recent big losing streaks and extended goal scoring droughts. Not sure if that helps his numbers or proves they miss him though. I guess one would never know for sure.

  11. misfit says:

    I don’t know how much better Schremp’s -5 is in comparison to Pouliot’s -10 even if they were playing the same level of competition.

    Both are probably on the ice when they’re down a goal late with the goalie pulled, so I’d guess EN goals against aren’t a factor.

    I don’t think it’s a streatch to assume Schremp is rarely on the ice when there’s a faceoff in the Falcons’ zone unless his line had just iced the puck. Pouliot, on the other hand, I would imagine finds himself starting a lot of his shifts in the defensive zone, and that can’t be good for the +/-.

  12. Dennis says:

    Great points there by Misfit. I think we’ve learned enough from Horc’s 07 final line not to trust unfiltered +/- stats and in looking at the Falcons roster, there’s no reason not to believe that MP’s been taking all the big draws for them. And most of those will come in the bad end of the ice.

    BTW, http://www.masslive.com/falcons/, check out that link and you’ll see the Falcons are being drilled by injuries too.

    If Reddox never follows up on his sophmore promise, I think we could safely speculate that injuries claimed another prospect.

  13. Bank Shot says:

    Is it unfair to expect an NHL calibre ES player to put up decent +/- numbers in the AHL regardless of tough minutes and situational play?

    If a player is a good ES player at the NHL level they should be top 5% in the AHL, and be the one wrecking havoc on everyone else’s plus/minus no?

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