Cammelleri?

There’s a thread over at HF suggesting the Edmonton Oilers may be interested in acquiring LA Kings forward Mike Cammelleri. Now the “thought starter” on this one is that unemployed bass player from Philadelphia who has turned whispers and lies into an industry, but this one makes sense to me.

In fact, we’ve discussed it on this site and certainly his name has been thrown about at various Oilblogs all down the line.

Why do I like Mike Cammalleri so much? Why would he be a good fit on the Oilers? Why would I want another small forward for the Oilers top 6?

The nature of Mike Cammelleri as a player is similar to Andrew Cogliano, with two major differences. He’s better offensively, and he can score goals. This is a player who has scored 26, 34 and is on pace for 23 during a slump-ridden season in the NHL. This is a 25-year old player heading into the prime of his career. This is a player whose arrows have always been pointed in the right direction. Consider:

  1. At 18, Mike Cammalleri scored 42gp, 29-32-61 +29 on 162 shots with Michigan.
  2. Cammalleri spent large portions of his first two pro seasons in the AHL (playing well) and ripped it up in the lockout season.
  3. When the NHL returned, he emerged as a genuine talent and at this time we don’t have an established level of ability because the arrow keeps moving up each season until this one.
  4. His 06-07 season was splendid. The counting numbers (81gp, 34-46-80) were strong, as were his secondary numbers (3.22/60 at EVs, 5.94/60 at PP).
  5. He led the Kings in PP scoring in 06-07 (16-21-37) and was 8 points clear of the next LAK forward in that category.
  6. His 07-08 season is less impressive. His couting numbers (42gp, 15-18-33) are off the pace, as are his secondary numbers (1.86/60 at EVs, 4.94/60 at PP). Still, that PP number is a good one and that has followed him his entire career.
  7. Shots: At Michigan, his shots rates were 3.86/gm (00-01) and 4.69/gm (01-02).
  8. Shots: AHL, 3.85/gm (02-03), 2.51/gm (03-04), 3.9/gm (04-05).
  9. Shots: NHL, 1.43/gm (02-03), 1.71/gm (03-04), 2.58/gm (05-06), 3.69/gm (06-07) and 3.10/gm (07-08).
  10. In 04-05, Cammalleri took 308 shots (AHL), last season 299 (NHL). No Oiler this century has taken over 250 shots in a season.
  11. He can play all three forward positions.

The idea of trading Pitkanen is distasteful to me, but if the Oilers can’t sign him then they run the risk of losing him to UFA soon. If they have exhausted all avenues in terms of a long term deal with him, and respecting the fact that they would need a replacement on D, I’d be very happy with Mike Cammelleri signed long term by the Edmonton Oilers. I have no idea what would be fair in terms of added prospects or picks on each side, but the general feel of a signed Cammelleri for an rfa Pitkanen holds appeal for me.

At 25, he moves the center of the forward group closer to where it should be (Ales Hemsky), and the Oilers under Kevin Lowe have been able to find useful free agents off the “affordable and underrated” tree.

Thoughts?

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

68 Responses to "Cammelleri?"

  1. Simon says:

    Why would LA trade away Cammelleri?

  2. HBomb says:

    It’s an interesting thought, but, you add Cammelleri to the forward group, and the top six isn’t exactly abundant with size (Gagner, Nilsson).

    The guy I’d want Lowe to inquire about if LA calls about Pitkanen? Frolov. He and Erik Cole are the first two names that come to mind when the unenviable thought of having to deal Pitkanen comes to mind.

    And I’ll throw it out again here, because it just makes too much sense: Stoll and Staios for Jeff Carter from Philly. That’s who I would target if I was Lowe.

  3. Devin says:

    I think a move like this would pretty much end any thoughts of Nilsson or Schremp playing for the Oil for long. That and/or solidify one of Gagner or Cogliano as a winger long-term. A depth chart of Horc, Cammy, Gagner, Brodz down the middle could be exceptional.

    I think Nilsson has to have some value as a throw in in a Stoll deal for a Pitkanen replacement. We don’t need the offense to be replaced, just a top pairing defender. I like the deal, even if it introduces new question marks (what else is new, Kevin?) but I’d do everything possible to unload Roli in the swap. Maybe they’d give us Labarbera? (dream on)

    Why would they trade him? They have Kopitar and Handzus long-term, and O’Sullivan can play C, and Boyle is emerging as an NHL regular. They have enough down the middle (so do we, I guess) but with only Preissing, Johnson, and Visnovsky signed beyond this season have no one who can handle the tough defending duties.

  4. Devin says:

    Actually, my bad – Cammy is playing wing in LA this year. He’d be a major upgrade on Nilsson, simple as that.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Simon: They’ve screwed him over in terms of contract. Why I don’t know but do remember he was frustrated last summer by the way things were handled. Suspect he’s gone somewhere.

    hbomb: I think acquiring Cammalleri effectively puts Nilsson on the outs:

    C: Horcoff, Cammalleri, Cogliano, Brodziak, Pouliot
    L: Penner, Torres, Moreau, Glencross
    R: Hemsky, Gagner, Pisani, Stortini, Nilsson
    LD: ????, Souray, Smid, Grebeshkov
    RD: Staios, Gilbert, Greene
    G: Garon, Roloson

    Stoll gone for help on D.

  6. doritogrande says:

    I wouldn’t be so quick to line him up at C. I see him more as Penner’s replacement on the top line. If we run with a top-6 of:

    Cam – Horc – Hemsky
    Penner – Gagner – Nilsson

    It gives us speed, scoring and creativity on both lines. Hemsky finally has someone who can keep up to him and put the puck in the net from somewhere that isn’t 10 feet in front of the net, and Penner plays with linemates he can actually keep up with.

    But still I must ask, why would LA want Pitkanen? They have his skill-set mastered in Vishnovsky and Preissing, and I’ll eat my shorts if Thomas Hickey doesn’t make the jump to NHL action this summer. Blake will be back, and along with Johnson there’s the size factor on the blueline. I don’t think they’ve got the payroll for another 5M on defense.

    Buffalo seems a much more likely target for an offer sheet or trade, as they will be desperate for someone of Pitkanen’s ability after Brian Campbell walks (great idea from a someone’s previous post). We could trade him there for another one of Lowe’s “the one that got away” draft picks, Drew Stafford.

  7. HBomb says:

    LT: Part of the reason I’m suggesting Carter and not Cammelleri is because I’m loathe to give up Pitkanen. I’d much rather see him locked up long-term because, frankly, we do not have another guy in the organization with that sort of upside. Not even close, actually.

    Yes, he’s having his brain farts. But do you think the Hartford franchise regretted giving up on Pronger so early? I’d say so. Defensemen take time, they’re going to have to show a bit of faith in Pitkanen and give him big dollars with the hope he comes into his own over the next 2-3 seasons. I personally think he’s a good bet to cover.

    So you do Stoll/Staios for Jeff Carter, while all of Roloson/Sanderson/Reasoner are moved along for whatever you can get for them at the deadline. Gilbert and Pitkanen are both extended, and you look to sign a guy like Commodore in the UFA market this summer to firm up the back-end, as well as a guy like Shelley on the cheap as a spare forward, 40-game-a-year heavyweight:

    Penner Horcoff Hemsky
    Torres Carter Gagner
    Moreau Cogliano Pisani
    Glencross Brodziak Stortini
    EXT: Shelley, 14F

    Pitkanen Gilbert
    Commodore Greene
    Souray Smid
    EXT: 7D

    Then you’re still left deciding on one of Pouliot/Nilsson/Thoresen for the last forward spot, you need to decide what Grebeshkov is worth long term, if Roy is worth keeping as the 7th d-man, or if they need to go and sign a veteran like Matt Walker out of St. Louis (native of Beaverlodge, AB, UFA this summer) for that role.

    Lots of decisions to be made. The bottom line is they need to trim the fat in a few places and add a couple of established NHLers via a quantity-for-quality deal and a couple of smart 2nd and 3rd tier UFA signings.

    Then again, we were saying the same things last spring, right?

  8. Mr DeBakey says:

    The Bass Player Union phoned,
    they insist that guy from Philly is a drummer.

    Reading HHOF Jim’s trade deadline piece this morning
    He mentioned 2nd line winger several times
    The words Kenta Jr kept coming into my mind

    That would dovetail nicely with this idea

  9. Lowetide says:

    HBomb: The only way I make this trade is if the Oilers have exhausted efforts to sign Joni.

    As for Carter, even signed he’ll be cheaper than Stoll and I think he’s probably already a better player.

  10. HBomb says:

    LT: Carter’s an excellent player. I’ve liked him since the 2004 WJC. He and Getzlaf might have been the best two forwards on that 2005 WJC team outside of the dynamic duo of Bergeron/Crosby.

    I’m watching Carter closely in the next week. Knowing that JC had chemistry with Getzlaf and that Getzlaf can play LW, I wonder if Anaheim perhaps offers up Bobby Ryan (a guy Philly had interest in at the 2005 draft) and/or the Oilers first rounder to Philadelphia for Carter. Getzlaf/Carter/Perry?

    Given that we’re not going to acqurie a superstar via trade, the next best bet is finding a guy who could develop into one. I think Carter has that kind of elite first-line center upside that he’s worth the risk.

  11. Black Dog says:

    Mr D beat me to the crack about HHOF Jim Matheson … damn.

    From what he said today its that we should not expect much in the next week and that includes Pitkanen and Stoll, the two names that he brought up.

    I like Cammeleri. I’d like Carter more.

    Problem is you’re robbing Peter to pay Paul in a lot of ways if you are moving Joni to fill that hole. Unless Lowe can pull off a quantity for quality deal this summer (hah), moving a prospect or two for a guy to fill that hole.

    He mentioned Ryder as a possibility, throwing out Pouliot as the bait.

  12. doritogrande says:

    Carter’s a hell of a player for sure, but I don’t think he’s coming cheaper than Stoll LT. He’s seen the kind of scratch Richards is making, and Carter was drafted higher. I wouldn’t think it out of the question that if left unsigned, he garners a 3.5M offer sheet, which I still think will be an underpayment for the type of player he is. I mean, the guy’s huge, loves to use the frame to his advantage and snipes like Lupul was supposed to ;). If he had the luxury Richards has playing with offensive people, his counting numbers would be much higher.

    H-bomb, I like your trade, but somehow I don’t sense it is enough. What would they want Stoll for when they have a guy like Richards, who is doing exactly what Stoll used to do pre-concussion. Philly doesn’t have a wealth of blueline depth in their prospect pool outside of Ryan Parent, so maybe we offer Chorney (I’d rather lose him than Petry because of the size issue) and Staios for Carter and a mid-pick.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Well I hate the idea of Pouliot for 20 games of Ryder. That’s a dumb freaking deal.

    Stupid, stupid, stupid.

  14. Andy Grabia says:

    Any thoughts on how the Seabrook deal affects what Pitkanen and Gilbert can ask for?

  15. Andy Grabia says:

    Well I hate the idea of Pouliot for 20 games of Ryder. That’s a dumb freaking deal.

    Ya, Ryder’s likely to score more points in those 20 games than Pouliot will in his whole NHL career.

    I had to, LT. :)

  16. Lowetide says:

    Well, Seabrook is in his 3rd NHL season and is 22 years old. He was making that .942M cap number so any comps would (as far as I know) need to be somewhat similar in age, NHL experience and previous salary.

    Okay.

    Gilbert: 24 years old (07-08 age), 1+ years experience, .907M cap number. I don’t think that’s a good comp, since Gilbert is much closer to ufa (age 27) and has far less experience in the NHL.

    Pitkanen: 24 years old (07-08 age), 5 year experience (they do count the lockout year, right?), 2.4M cap number.

    I don’t think either is a good comp, but this is not an area of expertise.

  17. Lowetide says:

    Andy: I am extremely petty and have a long memory. Watch your back.

    :-)

  18. Bruce says:

    The reliability questions about Pitkanen are two-fold, both consistency and health. I am particularly concerned about the latter, he has missed time on FIVE different occasions this season — knee, back, flu, groin, hip. (I think Paul Coffey had all of those things at once in the ’85 playoffs and never missed a shift.) Whether he has a glass body or a low pain threshold is immaterial, the record is this guy gets nicked and he misses time.

    Certainly he had a serious abdominal surgery in his second year in Philly and some observers (inc. this one) think he hasn’t been the same player since. Certainly the stats back that up: in 96 career GP before his surgery Pitkanen was an impressive +33, then in 152 games since he’s been -21. Most young players tend to develop in the opposite direction. As one who has had Joni in my keeper league pool his whole career, my evolving opionion has been that he was a can’t-miss superstar who made the All-Rookie team, then jumped a level in his sophomore year and was scoring at nearly a point-per-game and close to a plus-per-game (25 GP, 8-15-23, +18) before that damned surgery. Since then, his production has been decent but not outstanding, his plus/minus has plummeted, and his health spotty to say the least.

    It’s all well and good to pencil him in as the #1 defencemen for the foreseeable future, but is there any reason for optimism that he will evolve into an 80-game player? It’s friggin’ hard to build a defence around him AND Souray, when neither can be counted on to even be in the line-up on a game in, game out basis.

    Comes a game like Saturday in Vancouver, an absolutely critical game for the Oil, and Pitkanen’s absence with his latest nick draws not so much as a mention of his name in a 200-post game thread. We’re already used to not counting on this guy.

  19. doritogrande says:

    “Comes a game like Saturday in Vancouver, an absolutely critical game for the Oil, and Pitkanen’s absence with his latest nick draws not so much as a mention of his name in a 200-post game thread. We’re already used to not counting on this guy.”

    Man, I was wondering where the hell he was. I got home in time for the UFC on ice at the end, but didn’t see the rest of the game. Is he day-to-day with hurt feelings again?

  20. DBO says:

    I like the cammelleri idea, especially if we are able to unload rollie as well (not that the kings need another expensive, old goalie). But if we got Preissing back, at half the cost of Pitkanen, and you add Cammelleri to the top 6, we have a much stronger team next year. Maybe you add Schremp to rollie and Pitkanen, and a mid round pick for cammelleri, preissing and a prospect on D. Hopefully Lombardi bites, with his knowledge that cammelleri’s gone after next year from LA for nothing. As for Ryder, sign him in the off season, or deal Jacques for him for the last 20 games to see how he fits. not a great plan, but at least he gets a chance to see if he likes it here (m,aybe that’s how we get UFA’s, bring them here and hope they like it instead of having to overpay), and we could end up with a top 6 next year of:
    Horcoff – Hemsky – Cammelleri
    Gagner – Ryder – Penner
    Not too shabby.

  21. Sean says:

    I’d love to see Frolov, Cammelleri or Carter.

    Is there any way we could get either without giving up Pitkanen or Gilbert? Give to get I guess. I think Pitkanen is gonna get signed for Brett Burns money. His year isnt good enough to get more. This should be the priority.

    Philly could really use Staois.
    LA could use a lot.

  22. Lowetide says:

    I’d rather deal MP, JFJ or Schremp for a pick than a 20-game rental. Seriously. Ryder isn’t worth it for 20 games.

  23. jon k says:

    LT, we won’t acquire Cammelleri for the same reason you’re worried about keeping Pitkanen. He’s a guy with a strong sensibility about his money and he’s stated that he’s going to get his money as a UFA in one season. That’s the reason HF is alive and well with LA fan trade proposals including him.

    If we trade Pitkanen for Cammelleri we’d be trading a useful asset for 1 season of an already less useful asset.

  24. HBomb says:

    Count me as being as opposed to bringing in Ryder as I was opposed to bringing in Souray last summer.

    Not worth the bucks, not a great fit. It’s either got to be an upgrade a 2C (with Gagner as the 2RW for now) or another LW with first line upside dropping Penner down to line two with Gagner and (likely) Nilsson.

    Ryder is neither. Plus he’s going to need Lupulesque sheltering.

    Which means it’s all but a certainty Lowe’s going after him this July when no one signs him in the first few days of the UFA derby and we’re the only team willing to offer him anything close to his asking price.

  25. RiversQ says:

    Why deal for Carter? That makes zero sense to me when Philly is unlikely to be able to fit him in their budget. Carter’s a prime target for an RFA offer sheet. The Oilers would be better off getting him that way if possible. Assuming that Lowe understands how they work this time. ie. he knows it’s his own picks and doesn’t go $1MM/yr over price.

  26. Bruce says:

    Is he day-to-day with hurt feelings again?

    DG: Hip flexor, day-to-day. Not sure how much we missed him against the Canucks (Pitkanen vs. Vancouver: 3 GP, 0-0-0, -4, and now 3 games missed), although the Roy-Smid combination that got burned on the first goal wouldn’t have been an issue.

  27. Black Dog says:

    But guys, Matheson is a hall of famer! ;)

    Seabrook’s deal was interesting to me as well. Maybe Gilbert and Pitkanen come in for less then everyone is thinking?

    Concerns about Joni’s health are valid and becoming moreso from week to week. Of course possible return goes down as well.

  28. HBomb says:

    Why deal for Carter? That makes zero sense to me when Philly is unlikely to be able to fit him in their budget. Carter’s a prime target for an RFA offer sheet. The Oilers would be better off getting him that way if possible. Assuming that Lowe understands how they work this time. ie. he knows it’s his own picks and doesn’t go $1MM/yr over price.

    What you’re saying Riv would make perfect sense IF it wasn’t clear that the Oilers, even with Carter, might still be a top-ten draft pick next year.

    Deal for him and try to move some contracts along. I’d be a lot more willing to give up Stoll and Staios than a 1st, 2nd and 3rd (perhaps 2 firsts, depending on how high the offer had to go) to get Jeff Carter.

    They’d be looking at probaby 4.5 million per year, minimum, to force Philly’s hand.

  29. Bruce says:

    If I’m not mistaken a team can only sign a RFA every two years? I’m no expert on the CBA, but I’m pretty sure I read that somewhere, which if true would take Oilers right out of that market this summer. Can somebody confirm?

  30. rickibear says:

    If Philly is smart they trade Hartnel and Knuble to TOR for McCabe . Throw Hatcher in the minors and sign Carter for 3m/yr and Umberger 2.5M/yr.

  31. Andy Grabia says:

    Is he day-to-day with hurt feelings again?

    Oh man, that was good.

    Here’s my question when it comes to dealing with L.A.: why are any of us assuming that Lowe is going to outdeal Lombardi? Maybe I’m simplifying things too much here, but it seems like all these deals favor us, not L.A. So why would Lombardi make any of them?

  32. DBO says:

    I guess what deal with LA would actually make sense for both teams? In a deep draft do you deal Pitkanen, Schremp and Anaheim’s first
    for
    Cammalleri and Preissing?
    Do you do it only if they take roloson as wel? Could we justify giving up a first and Schremp to basically get rid of rollie’s contract, and free up money to sign a UFA like Boyle for big money in the off season? Would we want Lowe to spend big in the offseason?

  33. rickibear says:

    Throw Hatchers one year contract in and get Ponikarovsky.
    Toronto gets legitamate starting wings for a second line. They dump McCabe’s long term contract.
    Phili gets money free to sign Umburger and Carter.

    The point being that they should be able to free up money to sign the players they identify as there critical rfa’s.

    And S**t I said I would not throw out more trade options.

  34. speeds says:

    Bruce, there is no such restriction. In fact, section 10.3.d.i says that a team may have more than 1 RFA offer sheet outstanding at any one time, provided it has the required compensation should all the offer sheets not be matched.

  35. godot10 says:

    Preissing is useless. A soft third pairing defenseman is NOT what the Oilers need. He has the illusion of adequacy on a good team like San Jose or Ottawa.

    The Ducks had their way with Preissing and Corvo (and Redden) in the finals last year. And did you just see the last two games we had with the Flames and the Canucks.

    Geez…Chorney is probably already better than Preissing, or would be in half a season.

    Gilbert is a can play tougher and do everything Preissing does better.

  36. Bruce says:

    Thanks, speeds. Don’t know where I heard that, but I’m pretty sure it was more than once. That said I will trust your opinion on the CBA ahead of anybody in the MSM.

  37. Dennis says:

    The problem with this is Lowe once again trying to zig and zag his way towards a straight line.

    Look, there’s no question Pitkanen’s a concern when it comes to durability and maybe that’s the only thing we should consider.

    But, 2-5 going forward look to be the ruffians but both have little, Smid, to none, Greene, offensive ability to speak of. Staios is a swingman and Souray’s a fucking special teams guy who thinks he can move the puck at EV but really can’t. Gilbert’s the fellow who could round into the everyman. If you deal Pitkanen you’re gonna have a huge problem moving the puck and does anyone really trust that Lowe could turn Stoll or Torres into a guy that CAN move the puck?

    Find some teams with an abundance of puck moving guys and maybe I’ll feel better about it all.

    As for where Cammalari would fit in, I’ll say he plays with 27-89 and becomes 89′s gunner. That means perhaps 18 or 34 moves up to play PVP with 10-83 and that leaves 13 and one of 18/34 to play on the third line. Because 18/51 have shown some EV chem before, we’ll put Pisani up with 10/83 and look for someone to flesh out 20/46 and we’ll make it Pouliot

    34-10-83
    27-89- Cammalleri
    18-13-51
    20-Pouliot-46

    2-5-24-44-77 to build your D.

    This means you deal one of Stoll or Torres for that guy to round out your D and you deal the other one for a first round pick this June. Nilsson’s gone for the fuck of it and who knows where Grebs lands.

    Does that look like a playoff team and tell me which young puckmoving dman can step in and be acquired for some of 12-14-16-Schremp?

  38. Lowetide says:

    Dennis: Well a bunch of Oilers Dmen are not much offensively. According to Desjardins, the points-per-60 at EVs are sad for a few guys:

    1. Tom Gilbert .91
    2. Joni Pitkanen .85
    3. Sheldon Souray .76
    4. Steve Staios .59
    5. Denis Grebeshkov .49
    6. Ladislav Smid .32
    7. Matt Greene .20

    Just for kicks, let’s compare this to CGY’s Dmen:

    1. Adrian Aucoin .91
    2. Dion Phaneuf .81
    3. Robyn Regehr .73
    4. Anders Eriksson .62
    5. Rhett Warrener .38
    6. Corey Sarich .27
    7. David Hale .11

    Fun stuff. I think you’d have to hope that Smid gains some confidence as a puck mover (and he can do it, just runs out of options and then his brain won’t kick in) and as a passer, and that Lowe can find an inexpensive option who can play a two-way game.

    He did it with Staios, and imo he did it with Hedja too. It’s a better bet than him finding a shooter for 2M via free agency.

    Would you rather have Pitkanen +Ryder or Cammalleri + Karel Rachunek (as an example).

    Personally, I’ve always felt that was Lowe’s strength. Identify role playing defenders.

  39. RiversQ says:

    HBomb: Philly already has $49MM committed for next year and they will have 4-5 players to replace going into next year. The math doesn’t add up for them keeping Carter at any significant number (say over $2.5MM/yr).

    So my question is could you sign him as an RFA at the limit just below giving up a first rounder? Would he sign for 4yrs $14MM? (Assuming $3.5MM/yr avoids the 1st round pick compensation)

  40. DBO says:

    Funy thing we would all take calgary’s D, but I guess we’re more comparable offensively then we thought.

    to your point LT about Cammalleri + Rachunek
    vs
    Ryder – Pitkanen
    The issue would be dollars, with the Pitkanen ryder duo costing at least $2.5 million more (if ryder gets same salary as this past year which is doubtful).
    What about Paul Mara – Cammalleri
    vs
    pitkanen – Ryder?

    I like Mara as a solid defenseman, under 30 who has some offensive skills and still has decent size. could we get him for half the cost of Pitkanen? Yes he’s not as offensively talented, but has some talent, and is one of those Staios (with more offense) type dmen Lowe is good at finding.

  41. speeds says:

    3.5 mil would not avoid a 1st round pick as comp.

    That line will be at something like 2.6 mil for next season, where the compensation goes from a 2nd round pick to a 1st and a 3rd round pick.

  42. HBomb says:

    HBomb: Philly already has $49MM committed for next year and they will have 4-5 players to replace going into next year. The math doesn’t add up for them keeping Carter at any significant number (say over $2.5MM/yr).

    So my question is could you sign him as an RFA at the limit just below giving up a first rounder? Would he sign for 4yrs $14MM? (Assuming $3.5MM/yr avoids the 1st round pick compensation)

    Riv, I’d love if it panned out that way, but Carter’s the kind of guy that you’d match and find a way to get back below the cap (via buyout or trade) afterwards.

    Somehow I doubt they let a guy like Carter go for 3.5 million per season. To me, that sounds like it’s in the ballpark of market value for such a player.

    If push comes to shove, it’s worth a shot….

  43. Andy Grabia says:

    Well a bunch of Oilers Dmen are not much offensively.

    Same goes for a bunch of Oilers forwards.

  44. Bruce says:

    Just saw the replay of the Douglas Murray hit-from-behind on Blake Comeau this afternoon, which was virtually identical to the Cooke hit-from-behind on Roy the other night. The difference: Murray got five and a game. What, didn’t Comeau know it was coming?

    Whereas when Cooke gooned Roy, likely putting him back on the IR, Vancouver wound up with the fucking powerplay. I’m still incensed about that call.

  45. DBO says:

    Just was listening to CBC Hockey night on Sirius with Ron maclean, kelly Hrudey and crew, and they were talking about richards from TBay having to be moved due to the fact that the Bolts are looking to sign Boyle at $7 million per season. So they have to clear salary, and they would be looking for depth players not stars in return. they lack NHL players on every line but the first. They also talked about how they would be willing to take close to equal salary back, as long as they got 3 NHL players to can help their team.
    Could we pull a Hamrlik with TBAY again? Could Stoll (replaces Richards at 2 C, and on the PP point), roloson (they desprately need anything at goalie to help them this year and next) and a Pisani/Torres and a nilsson (basically our 2nd line at the start of the season) for richards. They get 4 NHL players that overall makes their team better, and we get a #1 centre to play with Hemsky, while improving the overall team. thoughts?

  46. pboy says:

    I really like Richards but I can’t imagine that he will ever play up to that contract he signed. Did they really say that TB wants to sign Boyle for 7 million a year??? Good gawd, is Esposito running things down there from behind the curtain?

  47. danny says:

    If you can stock your forward corps with another guy ( Carter ) thats going to be in his prime a couple seasons from now, in line with the core of the forwards ( unless you are committed to getting a top 3 pick ) then you do it.

    1st and a 3rd for Carter? Done.

    Much like penner is ‘overpaid’ now, he won’t be. And he isnt anymore overpaid than Gagner is IMO. And we are in Gagners cheap years right?

  48. Lowetide says:

    How much better is Brad Richards than Shawn Horcoff? Because if you deal for Brad Richards you’re trading Shawn Horcoff so he better be 3M better.

  49. HBomb says:

    How much better is Brad Richards than Shawn Horcoff? Because if you deal for Brad Richards you’re trading Shawn Horcoff so he better be 3M better.

    Is that necessarily true? From what I can remember, Horcoff played LW back in 2002-03 on that line with Marchant and Cleary.

    Horcoff/Richards/Hemsky would be a pretty badass power vs. power line, leaving Penner-Gagner-Nilsson to feast on the soft parade.

  50. Lowetide says:

    HBomb: That would make the top line:

    Richards 7.8M
    Horcoff 3.6M++
    Hemsky 4.1

    If we agree that Horcoff is going to cost 5M a year on his next contract (I think that’s fair) then that means the top line is 17M plus you have Penner (4.25M) and Souray (5.4M).

    Five players, $26.55M.

    Lordy.

  51. Bruce says:

    Forget about salary, from a hockey standpoint I wouldn’t trade Horcoff for B.Richards even up.

    Now factor in this:

    Richards $7.8 MM (3 more years)
    Horcoff $3.6 MM (1 more year)

    Lots o’ room for a raise to, say, $5.2 MM (2/3 of Richards) and we still got the better player.

    We don’t need an anchor contract; we already got one.

  52. speeds says:

    Why would you move Horcoff if you land Richards, LT?

    I’m not saying a package of Torres, Stoll, and Roloson lands Richards, but the salaries match up. It’s not like if EDM acquired
    Richards they automatically would not be able to keep Horcoff.

  53. Lowetide says:

    speeds: I don’t see how they can handle that big of a contract, speeds. I actually wouldn’t acquire Richards at all.

  54. Slipper says:

    What do the Oilers’ need with Richards when they’ve already got Stoll?

    4 EV goals vs 8 EV goals. -16 at evens vs -26 at evens. 2.2 Million vs. 7.8 million.

    Unless the just hate cap space.

  55. Slipper says:

    Just to add.

    The Oilers have their own playoff overpay contracts to contend with. They shouldn’t be going out and obtaining the post-season la la land contracts from other teams.

  56. speeds says:

    It’s fair enough to say that you wouldn’t want to acquire Richards considering (a) what he would cost to acquire and (b) what you would have to pay him.

    All I’m saying is that the Oilers could afford it if they were so inclined. Torres, Stoll and Roloson will have a cap value in the neighbourhood of 8.3 mil next year (if Stoll makes the sme next year as he makes this year), while Richards and backup goalie and replacement level forward will probably cost 9.3 mil or so.

  57. Lowetide says:

    I see your point in that they could afford it, but is that the best way to go? TBay has run into all kinds of trouble with a trio that earns about 20M in cap each season.

    Should the Oilers acquire Richards and signe Horcoff to a 5M contract, their top 3 players would earn 18M (Richards, Horcoff and Souray). Seems like a bit top heavy to me, but I do understand your point that they could do it.

    Which brings up an interesting question: would you rather have 3 guys signed for 20M (and good players to boot) or 4 guys with no trade contracts?

  58. Dennis says:

    This might be a time when Souray’s contract could actually Help us;)

    Seriously, though, it seems like the math would support a 5 mill Horc along with Richards and it’s easy to point out that a 14-16-Roli package combined is past what Richards is making and would give them the genesis of a second line along with a forward to play the point along with a goalie for the next 20 games plus a full year.

    But, I’m thinking that because of the Oilers looking for that scorer and because of Souray’s deal, one of 14 and 16 were gonna have to be moved this summer anyway.

    Could someone come up with a look at the 2010 payroll if Richards is here and 14-16 are out, ie we know Roli’s gone by then.

    We could sign Horc and have his deal kick in for 2010 so ’09 really isn’t the factor that 2010 will be.

    I’m guessing if we made this deal, though, it means that Pitkanen’s gone for a pick and next year
    s D is:

    Staios-Souray-Smid-Greene-Grebs-Gilbert

  59. speeds says:

    TB has run into trouble because they have 3 guys making 20.8 mil while running on a 42 mil budget/cap number.

    That is not a similar scenario to what we would be talking about with the Oilers. The Oilers appear to be a cap team next year, with a cap projected anywhere from 53-57 mil.

    Even if EDM had 3 guys making the same money as TB’s top 3, which they wouldn’t if they traded for Richards, they would still have an additional 11-15 mil to flesh out the roster. It is a lot easier to fill the remaining 20 roster spots when you have 32 mil vs. 21 mil.

  60. speeds says:

    2008/9 salaries

    4.3-3.7-4.1 = 12.1
    1.5-7.8-1.7 = 11
    2.5-1.3-2 = 5.8
    1-0.5-0.6 = 2.1
    2 scrubs = 1.4
    forward total = 32.4
    2.8-5.0 = 7.8
    0.8-2.7 = 3.5
    5.4-1.5 = 6.9
    1.2
    Defence total = 19.4
    1.1+1 = 2.1
    Goal total = 2.1
    TOTAL Salary = 53.9 mil

    Lineup

    27-10-83
    12-Richards-89
    18-13-34
    20-51-46
    XX-XX

    77-25
    5-24
    37-44
    2

    32 + backup

  61. Lowetide says:

    Well let’s do the math. Torres, Stoll and Roloson off the books, Richards on and here we go:

    C: Richards (7.8), Horcoff (3.6), Cogliano (1.133), Brodziak(.497), Pouliot (.600-est)
    L: Penner (4.25), Nilsson (1.2-est)Moreau (2.0), Glencross (.650-est)
    R: Hemsky (4.1), Gagner (1.625), Pisani (2.5), Stortini (.534)

    That’s 13 forwards for $30,469,000. I won’t include a 14th F because that’s what teams often do now.

    LD: Pitkanen (4.5-est) Souray (5.4), Smid (.886), Grebeshkov (1.0-est)
    RD: Staios (2.7), Gilbert(2.5-est), Greene (1.15)

    That’s 7D with two estimates that I admit could be wonky but let’s say they’re not. Total is $18,136,000.

    G: Garon (1.1), JDD (.500-est)

    And goal is on the cheap, 1.6M

    Total dollars: $50,205,000. So it looks like they can easily manage next season, and at 5M in 09-10 the Oilers can find room for Horcoff’s increase.

    So, that said, is Richards the best man available for that money?

  62. speeds says:

    I guess it depends how one projects Richards to the Western conference, Oilers lineup, etc.

    The advantage of making that kind of move is that you know you’ll be able to spend the money.

    It may be preferable to simply go out and sign a UFA Hossa, but can you get him?

  63. Dennis says:

    For some reason, I thought it was going to be harder to fit him in.

    Now, the other part, is 14-16-Roli enough to land him? Do you blink about throwing in Schremp or young Cody Wild?

    Lastly, to echo LT, is Richards worth that much cap-space?

    No, wait, one more thing here: Hossa or Richards?

  64. dstaples says:

    Cammelleri has great skill, but is he the right fit for Edmonton? Sorry, but I see him as a Jimmy Carson type.

  65. Slipper says:

    There’s been alot of debate recently on the merits of a top heavy roster salary wise. We’re talking about the Richards who has scored 21 EV goals over the past 140 games while posting a beautiful -45. Just this season he’s running at 0.38 goals per gours and 1.25 EV points per hour. With all those minutes he gets… Jesus.

    Vic has showed that Richards has been getting about the same treatment as 16 here in Edmonton in terms of situational minutes. Yet he’s outproduced Stoll dummy stat wise, yet the difference in their GF/GA results is negligible.

    Negligible for 5+ million a season.

    I think the league’s economics are going to produce far more valuable contracts to be had in the next few off seasons. Richards doesn’t appear to be outperforming his any time soon, let alone performing up to it.

  66. Lowetide says:

    Dennis: At this point, there is no prospect outside the NHL that should hold up a trade imo. I’d argue for keeping Chorney, Nash and Dubnyk but if Wild is needed to put a deal over the top then so be it.

    The cream of the crop is in the NHL now. I’d also prefer to keep Trukhno for awhile longer too. :-)

  67. DBO says:

    I’ve felt Richards would be great here for a long time. he’s played with horrible linemates the last 3 years, and still gets around 70points, while checking the other teams best player. he is a Stoll comparable in the tough minutes he plays, but clearly outperforms him. I think he would be our best player the moment he stepped on the ice for us. the issue is the huge price tag he carries. Is hossa at $7.5 worth is more then richards? For goals yes, but think MacT type player. The +/- is bad, but once again horrible linemates. If you can get him for Stoll, Rollie, Torres/Pisani, Schremp/pick you make your overall team better (not to mention making tampa better by gving them a 2nd line and better goalie). I think he’s a better player then Horcoff, but not by much. However we can all agree Horc has been inconsistent year to year, and Richards has been around 70 points the last 4 years, is still 27, can QB the PP and play tough minutes. Put him with Hensky and ?, and have horc with Penner and Gagner and you have two really good lines. With Katz we’ll have the money to re-sign everyone we need, and it would mean that next year we have a legit shot at the playoffs. Heck you sign Ryder (not that i like him that much) for $2.5 million and put him on the top line with Richards and Hemsky and you have two lines with a 30 goal winger, two way centres and a playmaker. We haven’t had two lines like that in a decade, not to mention not having to deal Pitkanen. And it woudl put us below the cap by around $2 million.

  68. Bruce says:

    The Case Against Teflon Brad
    ———————————–

    Once again the name of Brad Richards is being bandied about like he would be the solution to all our problems here in Edmonton. I have to disagree strongly. I got into a similar discussion with RiversQ on MC’s site last spring right as I was finding the ‘sphere, and I’ll take up PDO now. Another season, same general result for Teflon Brad.

    I actually kind of like the guy, or at least his story — PEI native right down to the lobster fisher father — so this is not personal, but the more numbers I check on this guy the bigger and better the case against him. (In fact, rather than bury Richards I’ll bury this post very deep in this thread.)

    The numbers confirm Richards is not a great two-way player cuz he sucks defensively, and in fact he’s not that good offensively given the huge gobs of ice time he soaks up and the relatively paltry (positive) numbers that result. It’s all well and good to blame everything on his shitty linemates but if he plays on a shitty line he’s at least 1/3 of the problem. At his salary he should at least be dominating his man, and I just don’t find anything in the statistical record that supports any other argument than Teflon Brad is a poser.

    Diving into the great data available at Behind the Net, as well as basic stuff from NHL.com, here’s some numbers for you (filtered to 20+ GP in all cases, and to minimum 1:00 TOI/GP for special teams):

    —–
    5v5
    —–
    999:25 TOI (5th on Tampa, 3rd among forwards; MSL 1,095:56)

    3.63 GA/60 (worst on Tampa, 7th worst in NHL)

    2.19 GF/60 (11th best on Tampa; VL 3.80)

    1.25 ESP/60 (9th, behind Andre Roy for goodness sakes; VL 2.94)

    —–
    4v5
    —–

    142:34 SH TOI (1st among Tampa forwards; MSL 112:57)

    9.23 GA / 60 4v5 (2nd worst; Karlsson 2.26!! VL 4.21)

    0.92 GF / 60 (7th; VL 1.81, MSL 1.61)

    -8.31 / 60 (9th (of 10) Karlsson -2.26, VL -2.41)

    —–
    5v4
    —–

    291:33 PP TOI (1st on Tampa; VL 244:29)

    25 PPP (1st; MSL 23)

    4.10 PPP/60 (4th; MSL 5.46, Prospal 5.43; VL 4.96)

    +5.83 / 60 (6th; Gratton 7.90)

    I left powerplay numbers ’til last cuz that’s where Teflon Brad pads his counting numbers. BR has over half of his goals (9/17) and points (25/49) on the powerplay, where he gobbles up humongo ice time (6th most in the league, by far the most on his team) and occasionally gets involved in a scoring play. The scoring rates (as reflected in the on/off ice rates) show that Marty, Vinnie and the Other Vinnie are driving the powerplay, not Teflon Brad.

    On the PK his stats are ridiculously bad; compare his -8.31 / 60 to FIVE teammates who are better than -3.60. The only guy worse is his linemate and partner-in-crime, Jason Ward (who in Teflon Brad’s defence, I suspect might be the worst regular in the NHL) at a ghastly -9.13. I choose +/- to reflect the fact that Teflon Brad generates little offence on the PK despite ample opportunity to do so; naturally he has the most PK time of any Tampa forward. Add it all up and Brad is an unflattering +2/-20 on the PK, while Vinnie is +3/-7 and MSL +3/-9. And Brad is getting paid more than them why, exactly? Oh yeah, ice time.

    So let’s turn to ES, where MSL and VL actually get even more ice time than BR. The Big Three in fact rank 1-2-3 in the NHL in this important category. Unfortunately, only Marty and Vinnie are delivering a positive result from all their efforts. Corsi numbers and Vic’s faceoff zone stats be damned, those guys can finish. Whereas Teflon Brad, with his ridiculous career shooting percentage of 8.6, can’t. He’s well on his way to his 6th consecutive regular season of 240+ shots, and as usual, most of them aren’t going in. Yes I know, RQ, he plays point on the PP, and he takes lots of (ineffective, apparently) shots from there. But mostly he plays centre, and his 2007-08 shooting percentage of 7.7 ranks well behind Dan Boyle’s 12.5% or Paul Ranger’s 11.2. That’s just bad.

    Then there’s more subtle stuff like BR gets a scoring point on only 57% of goals scored when he is on the ice. Whereas Vincent is in on 77% of all goals scored while he’s out there. That flies in the face of the “bad linemates” theory. Brad’s linemates score (2.19 – 1.25) = 0.94 GF/60 without his (scoring) help; Vinnie’s more talented linemates just 0.86. Something does not compute.

    OK, so let’s look at those things that make Teflon Brad a “MacT type” player. 12 hits, tied for 20th on the team with Kyle Wanvig (7 GP). Hmm, maybe that’s not it. How about blocked shots, a MacT trademark from both playing and coaching days? 16 blocks, ranking 17th on the club, even with all that ice and PK time. Nope, that neither. Gotta be faceoffs, yet another MacT specialty. 433 won, 466 lost, 48.2%. Nope, not holding his own there either. So what’s left??

    Pulling back to the long career view, Teflon Brad has made his reputation on two magical seasons: 1999-2000 in Rimouski and 2003-04 in Tampa Bay. Both years he won everything in sight, including the big trophy at the end. We can’t discount that. In 2003-04 Richards had a truly extraordinary season where he had a career high in goals (a modest 26) and, not coincidentally, shooting percentage (10.7%). Then he scored 12 more goals, a remarkable 7 of them GWG, in the playoffs. In fact whenever Brad scored, Tampa won; I believe their record when he scored a goal that Stanley Cup season was 30-0-2. (I don’t put much stock in shit like that, but that was a remarkable correlation.) Everybody “saw him good” then, and Brad on top of his game brought a lot to the table.

    That also happened to be Richards’ only plus season, he posted a solid +14 in the season and +5 in the playoffs for a net +19. He held his own (net even inc. playoffs) the season before, otherwise he’s been a minus player. Sometimes Edmonton in February minus.

    As in the current season, when his -23 at evens and -25 overall are both the very worst in the entire NHL. This in a year that his cap hit is the very highest in the NHL. This doesn’t even factor in his brutal PK rates where he also bleeds GA. His PP numbers, while superficially good, don’t really stand up to scrutiny. And his RTSS suggests a guy who’s comfortable on the periphery. Sorry, I can’t find a single statistical reason (other than faint hope of another magic wand season) that supports this guy’s inflated reputation and salary.

    I wouldn’t touch Teflon Brad and his cap-crippling salary with a thousand-foot Lightning bolt.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca