Our man Dubnyk is having a nice run in the AHL these days. He’s been the #1 goalie for Springfield lately and posted impressive results. This month he has a 4-3 won-loss record, a GAA under 3.00 and a SP of .917. He’s had some busy nights (41 and 43 shots faced the last two games) and had only one horrible game this month (half a game against Hartford).
Dubnyk has always been a pretty highly regarded prospect and his statistics in junior were impressive enough for all of us Oiler fans to keep a candle burning.
Dubnyk’s junior team had a bad habit of getting a second penalty right after getting the first one, so his stats as a teenager were less impressive than they should have been (Asiaoil has done some EV SP work on Dubnyk’s career and it is quite impressive).
Let’s just list his stats on a line since 2002-03 to get an idea about him:
- 2002-03: 26gp, 3.10, .907 2so (SP 8th OV)
- 2003-04: 44gp, 2.51, .917 6so (SP 10th OV)
- 2004-05: 65gp, 2.69, .912 6so (SP 12th OV)
- 2005-06: 54gp, 2.54, .912 1so (SP 12th OV)
Dubnyk’s team was not a good one and he really did play a lot of games shorthanded and sometimes down by 2. I’m not one to buy into the idea that asterisks and caveats are required when discussing prospects but there are times when context requires explaining. I believe this to be the case. His pro career:
- 2006-07 (ECHL): 43gp, 2.56, .921 2so (SP tied for 3rd OV)
- 2007-08 (AHL): 22gp, 2.96, .908 0so (SP tied for 28th OV)
Earlier in the season, Dubnyk’s SP was much worse than his teammate Jeff Drouin Deslauriers. In fact, let’s list each goalies SP by month from the beginning of the year:
- OCT: Deslauriers .922, Dubnyk .921
- NOV: Desluariers .934, Dubnyk .877
- DEC: Deslauriers .905, Dubnyk .918
- JAN: Deslauriers .911, Dubnyk .852 (1 gm)
- FEB: Deslauriers .866, Dubnyk .917
- OVERALL: Deslauriers .914, Dubnyk .908
You never know if the light has truly gone on, but Dubnyk’s stats have been solid all down the line, with consistency and perhaps those wonky powerplay opportunity numbers skewing our view of the prospect.
I usually throw a draft day scouting report up on these guys, just because it’s always good to go back to them and see if there’s been any progress.
ISS: covers a lot of net and plays a strong positional game. He plays with a lot of confidence, and stays calm under pressure. Going into the second half of the season look for Dubnyk to take on a key role with the team. With Kirk McLean as his goaltending coach he has help with the mental side of his game. Endurance shouldn’t be a concern, extra weight lifting and cardiovascular work has increased his fitness.
Redline: absolutely gigantic at 6-5/190 pounds. He’s gangly and plays a stand-up style with patience and an economy of motion, allowing the puck to come to him. But his rebound control and ability to read plays needs some work.
I’d say Dubnyk is right on track, and in fact may be passing Deslauriers as a prospect as we speak. Either way, the 2004 first rounder remains a viable prospect with a chance to cover his draft number.