Sunday Minor League Report

Our man Dubnyk is having a nice run in the AHL these days. He’s been the #1 goalie for Springfield lately and posted impressive results. This month he has a 4-3 won-loss record, a GAA under 3.00 and a SP of .917. He’s had some busy nights (41 and 43 shots faced the last two games) and had only one horrible game this month (half a game against Hartford).

Dubnyk has always been a pretty highly regarded prospect and his statistics in junior were impressive enough for all of us Oiler fans to keep a candle burning.

Dubnyk’s junior team had a bad habit of getting a second penalty right after getting the first one, so his stats as a teenager were less impressive than they should have been (Asiaoil has done some EV SP work on Dubnyk’s career and it is quite impressive).

Let’s just list his stats on a line since 2002-03 to get an idea about him:

  • 2002-03: 26gp, 3.10, .907 2so (SP 8th OV)
  • 2003-04: 44gp, 2.51, .917 6so (SP 10th OV)
  • 2004-05: 65gp, 2.69, .912 6so (SP 12th OV)
  • 2005-06: 54gp, 2.54, .912 1so (SP 12th OV)

Dubnyk’s team was not a good one and he really did play a lot of games shorthanded and sometimes down by 2. I’m not one to buy into the idea that asterisks and caveats are required when discussing prospects but there are times when context requires explaining. I believe this to be the case. His pro career:

  • 2006-07 (ECHL): 43gp, 2.56, .921 2so (SP tied for 3rd OV)
  • 2007-08 (AHL): 22gp, 2.96, .908 0so (SP tied for 28th OV)

Earlier in the season, Dubnyk’s SP was much worse than his teammate Jeff Drouin Deslauriers. In fact, let’s list each goalies SP by month from the beginning of the year:

  • OCT: Deslauriers .922, Dubnyk .921
  • NOV: Desluariers .934, Dubnyk .877
  • DEC: Deslauriers .905, Dubnyk .918
  • JAN: Deslauriers .911, Dubnyk .852 (1 gm)
  • FEB: Deslauriers .866, Dubnyk .917
  • OVERALL: Deslauriers .914, Dubnyk .908

You never know if the light has truly gone on, but Dubnyk’s stats have been solid all down the line, with consistency and perhaps those wonky powerplay opportunity numbers skewing our view of the prospect.

I usually throw a draft day scouting report up on these guys, just because it’s always good to go back to them and see if there’s been any progress.

ISS: covers a lot of net and plays a strong positional game. He plays with a lot of confidence, and stays calm under pressure. Going into the second half of the season look for Dubnyk to take on a key role with the team. With Kirk McLean as his goaltending coach he has help with the mental side of his game. Endurance shouldn’t be a concern, extra weight lifting and cardiovascular work has increased his fitness.

Redline: absolutely gigantic at 6-5/190 pounds. He’s gangly and plays a stand-up style with patience and an economy of motion, allowing the puck to come to him. But his rebound control and ability to read plays needs some work.

I’d say Dubnyk is right on track, and in fact may be passing Deslauriers as a prospect as we speak. Either way, the 2004 first rounder remains a viable prospect with a chance to cover his draft number.

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11 Responses to "Sunday Minor League Report"

  1. dawgbone says:

    Unfortuantely, Asiaoil never had any actual stats to backup Dubnyk’s EV SV%. He was just guessing at it.

    The WHL doesn’t provide that sort of information.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Actually, that isn’t true. He did sift through a period of time and came up with a specific EV number. I’ll try to find it.

  3. PunjabiOil says:

    I’m a big fan of Dubnyk. The only thing that has held him back a little is consistency.

    Did he win out the starter position in springfield?

  4. Asiaoil says:

    dawgbone: yes I did run some numbers but because the CHL does not release ES SP numbers I had to make a few assumptions. Basically I just normalized and compared Dubnyk with everyone’s heart-throb Pogge. What my somewhat dirty analysis found was that the Winterhawks were a much tougher team to play in front of than the Hitmen (no shock there – that team took a stunning number of penalties – especially 5 on 3 situations) and that Dubnyk’s ES SP was probably as good or even a bit better than Pogge’s in his last CHL season.

    As for this season my line continues to be .920 and Dubnyk is below that. However, he only played one game in January – and even in that – he was throw into a beatdown 5 minutes into the first period when JDD got pulled. That is not a good “development” scenario – but now that he’s getting more work he is improving quickly. In fact if you throw out that one game in January where he only relieved JDD in a blow-out – he’s around a .918 since the end of October. That is better than JDD who seems to be fading in the 2nd half again.

    Another thing – DD does not seem to be very effective coming off the bench in relief and a lot of his sub-par games involve that. It would be interesting to see his SP as a starter and as a reliever – because I think the difference is dramatic.

    Anyway – if he keeps up the current level of play to the end of the season I think we have a player. Maybe not quite as strong as I had hoped – but he’s a very big guy so the development curve is likely a bit extended. Nothing to be disappointed in though – he’s coming closer to covering his number.

  5. Asiaoil says:

    Correction – Dubnyk has a .918 SP since th end of NOV if you discount the single relief game in Jan

  6. Asiaoil says:

    Well I got the single January game wrong as well – he started – but give me a break since it’s Sunday and it’s been a long week :)

    In any case – DD’s record as starter and reliever this season:

    Starter: 18 games .913 SP
    Reliever: 4 games .861 SP

    Not much of a record in the relief games – only 4 – two good and two bad. Still I don’t think the big guy is suited to the bullpen and so he probably needs to make it as a starter.

  7. Bendelson says:

    Nice numbers asiaoil. I like the comp. to Pogge the overrated.
    With Dub’s size, he gets the nod over any other ‘tenders with similiar stats IMO.

    Patience and we WILL be rewarded with a long-term, big game goalie.

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Make room for Dubnyk. He is our future #1.

  8. Dennis says:

    LT: so you put DD ahead of JDD based on their second year’s as pros? ie this is the former’s second year and the latter’s was ’06, right?

  9. Lowetide says:

    Dennis: I’d say probably, but mostly on the basis of AO’s digging. What I don’t know about goalies is a lot. :-)

  10. doritogrande says:

    Desualriers’ having a hell of a time tonight keeping puck out of net. He’s let in 4 goals on 33 shots, which is unusual for him. This may give Dubnyk some additional clearance.

  11. Asiaoil says:

    Dennis: JDD’s first 2 years as a pro were just plain bad. Now he seems to have settled into a pattern where he is pretty good the first half of the season but falls apart in the 2nd half. Given that goaltending is all about being consistent – that a’int good. But he’s rebuilt some value (but not a lot IMHO) and so I guess that’s progress.

    DD is pretty much playing as well or better and he’s 2 years younger – so for me that means he’s past JDD as a prospect. If JDD could be included in a trade package this week – that would be just fine as far as I’m concerned since I don’t see him being anything more than an average backup (think Steve Valliquette) and even that will likely take a couple more years.

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