Desjardins NHLE for AHL and NCAA Prospects

That’s Riley Nash trying to make an offensive play in fairly tough circumstances (the Boston player should be safe at home, though) in a November game for Cornell.

We are now at the time of year when the counting numbers are large enough for Gabriel Desjardins’ equivalencies to give us some focus. I don’t like to mix up leagues because there is evidence Gabriel’s number is a stronger match the closer you get to the NHL (which makes sense) so the AHL numbers are stronger than the college numbers.

To give you some background, Desjardins’ math suggested Andrew Cogliano would go 82gp, 17-19-36 (.439ppg) in the AHL this season, and he is 65gp, 11-21-32 (.492ppg). I consider that a solid match since there are so many variables (age, time on ice, et cetera) in projecting these things. Desjardins estimated Sam Gagner at 82gp, 16-39-55 (.670ppg) and he sits at 62gp, 7-27-34 (.548ppg). I think that’s a fair estimate, especially considering the number would be a little off because of the London Knights “Rob Schremp plays 30 minutes a night” airpump. He also had Robert Nilsson at 82gp, 10-27-37 (.451) and he’s at 54gp, 8-20-28 (.519) which any reasonable person would have to consider “in the range.”

Here then are the current Desjardins NHLE’s by league (and per 82gp and age in brackets):

NCAA Defenders
  1. Cody Wild (20) 4-17-21
  2. Taylor Chorney (20) 2-15-17
  3. Jeff Petry (20) 2-13-15

Wild is having a much better NCAA campaign this year than last (NHLE 06-07, 5-7-12), up 9 points according to the projection season over season. Chorney has gone backwards a little (6-15-21 a year ago) and Petry’s debut in the NCAA at age 20 is quality. One question then is “how come he didn’t debut until so late?” considering Chorney has played 113 college games, Wild 95 (and Petry 36) we probably need to think about how much of a factor that is when comparing these numbers. Then again, Petry is stepping into a higher league and playing well.

NCAA Forwards

  1. Riley Nash 11-12-23 (18)
  2. Chris Vande Velde 10-13-23 (20)
  3. Matt Glasser 3-2-5 (20)
  4. Robby Dee 1-3-4 (20)

Offensively Nash is clear of Cogliano at the same age (NHLE for Cogs at 18: 82gp, 8-11-19) and towers over Horcoff at the same age (7-9-16). He isn’t in the Comrie range (12-15-27) but they aren’t similar players either (Nash’s bio most closely matches Horcoff from the group here). I remain convinced this guy might be special. Vande Velde is putting up a nice season and may be a productive NHLer down the line but I’d say there’s every chance he spends another season in college (this is his sophomore season).

AHL Defenders
  1. Sebastien Bisaillon 5-13-18 (21)
  2. Danny Syvret 1-10-11 (22)
  3. Theo Peckham 6-2-8 (20)
  4. Bryan Young 0-3-3 (21)

We don’t know the impact Bisaillon’s injury will have (Bisaillon’s injury – a deep gash caused accidentally by the skate of an opposing player – damaged muscles and tendons in his right calf. It happened Jan. 4 in an American Hockey League game against the Providence Bruins. SOURCE: Garry Brown, the Republican) but he looks like he could help a little offensively. Peckham had a quality offensive season in junior and also has some potential. Young is never going to see center ice. Syvret is a very interesting case. He was plodding along all season before an AHL trade sent him to Hershey. In his 5 games with the Bears, he has 4 assists which gives some hope to a sagging career and possibly gives Kelly Buchberger’s reputation as a extreme defense-first coach some traction.

AHL Forwards

  1. Rob Schremp 9-26-35 (21)
  2. Marc Pouliot 15-18-33 (22)
  3. Liam Reddox 11-14-25 (21)
  4. JF Jacques 11-14-25 (22)
  5. Slava Trukhno 5-11-16 (20)
  6. Colin McDonald 6-8-14 (23)
  7. Ryan O’Marra 3-9-12 (20)

Comparing this number with Schremp’s NHLE a year ago (10-21-31) shows he is headed in the right direction offensively, while Pouliot (16-20-36NHLE in 06-07) is going the wrong way a little. Liam Reddox is now about even with JF Jacques (they weren’t in the same hemisphere a year ago, Jacques’ NHLE was 13-23-36 and Reddox was in the ECHL). Trukhno’s numbers are about where Tyler Spurgeon’s were one year ago and Colin McDonald looks like an also-ran. O’Marra seems to be enjoying a late spurt but it isn’t showing up in the stats column enough to make a difference.

What does it all mean? If a non-Oiler fan read this he/she might walk away with the opinion that the Oilers have a kid named Nash who is doing well in college, three pretty nice 20-year old defensemen in the NCAA, an injured AHL defenseman who might be something and two or three AHL forwards who might have a career if they get lucky.

And really that’s about right.

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16 Responses to "Desjardins NHLE for AHL and NCAA Prospects"

  1. Mr DeBakey says:

    Remember late last year when MacT said something about the young call-ups who were are playing themselves away from the Big Club?
    Two words – Danny Syvret

    Van Velde
    but I’d say there’s every chance he spends another season in college

    Contract counting suggests that probably a good idea.
    Who’s coming to dinner already – Chorney and Wild. Omark? Mihknov? Pitton?
    Even with dumping a bunch of guys, the count gets up over 45 pretty quickly

  2. Bank Shot says:

    I think the Oilers will be fine in terms of contracts next season if they want to be.

    Vande Velde. There’s every possibility that he’s a product of his linemates. Would be nice if he was legit though.

    Nash does look fine. He’s underscoring what Higgins did as an 18 by a bit, but it looks like he’s some kind of quality.

    Pretty fair assesment on the rest of the scrubs in sector 7-G…err, the AHL.

  3. doritogrande says:

    Saw Syvret play against my Manitoba Moose on Thursday and he was a gong-show. I thought he was supposed to be strong positionally but really he didn’t seem to know where he should be on several occasions. He’s too soft on the puck and he caused a short-handed goal because of it. He skated lazily over to a puck in his own end and lost a battle in open ice to a much younger Alex Bolduc who fed it over to the game’s 1st star Jason Jaffray who roofed it for his second of three goals on the night.

    Yeah, he had an assist, and it was a nice offensive play where he saw a wide-open winger cross crease, but Syvret’s not a forward.

    Defensively, I don’t think he gets a contract after this year.

  4. doritogrande says:

    Not too sure if it’s going to affect the NHLE numbers, but Petry had another goal and assist last night to put him at 3-17-20 on the year.

    Also, as an MSU aside, god do I wish we could have offloaded someone like Staios to Detroit for Justin Abdelkader instead of them giving up a 2-4 for Brad Stuart. Kid’s a big body and has a nose for the net.

  5. Bruce says:

    Nice report, LT (and Desjardins). Let’s hope one of those young blueliners can bring some semblance of an offensive game to the NHL level. The eight guys currently on the roster or IR have scored all of 83 points this season. At least we got somebody over 20 (Gilbert, 25) after Staios led the post-MAB Oilers with just 17 last season. [shudder]

    In theory Pitkanen and Souray bring offence from the blue line as well as Gilbert, but obviously durability is an issue with both. It’s hard to project Greene or Smid as an offensive force; although I see both as keepers that’s just not their game. More intriguing as a potential offensive blueliner is Grebeshkov, who has 8 points in his last 17 games after just 4 in his first 37. Maybe 25-37-44-77 are enough if all are healthy and the three younger ones continue to develop, but there’s a lot of eggs in that basket, and a couple of them are real fragile.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Bruce: The encouraging news on that is that Gilbert at 20 (Desjardins NHL that year would be 82gp, 4-11-15) was in the range with these three.

    Of course he’s a rookie at 24 so the timeline on these kids may be 2010 as opposed to the fall. Still, I don’t recall a time when the Oilers had three college Dmen worth talking about at one time.

  7. Bruce says:

    You’re right, LT, that is encouraging. None of them will be mistaken for a 20-year-old Paul Coffey (whose NHL “equivalent” was 29-60-89!!), but it’s nice to have a few prospects in the system. Always have liked those college boys.

    So apparently does Kevin Lowe, as the current Oilers have more guys from university backgrounds than any Edmonton club in memory. Nine regulars by my count: Cogliano, Gilbert, Glencross, Greene, Horcoff, Penner, Pisani, Reasoner, Roloson.

  8. Dennis says:

    Sather was a big guy on collegiate players as well. Even after David Oliver left;), you had Marchant-Grier-Murray-Weight-McGillis; even CuJo was from Wisconsin.

    Hulbig was in the system, a guy like Tuommainen and then Guerin and Hrkac was in our top 12 forwards for the ’98 playoffs.

    Nash seems to be worth investing in and as for the young D, hopefully some of them are promising enough to be traded for an Older D.

    I agree with Bruce, Oilers do have a lot of your blueliners who could wind up being valuable but as long as you keep playing them all in the same corps, the chance for success isn’t great.

  9. Bruce says:

    Dennis: Are you happy (“surprised”) with Grebeshkov’s recent progress?

    Before Jan 4: 36 GP, 0-4-4, -10
    Since Jan. 4: 18 GP, 2-6-8, +7

    He’s had 14 straight games of even or better, and his ice time has gradually crept up to 15 minutes plus. Don’t want to read too much into it, he had a 9 game roll without a minus in Nov-Dec (0-3-3, +5), but bled minusses with fuck all offence both before and after that little streak. But this latest run is a little longer, a little more offensive, and, importantly, hasn’t come crashing down as yet. Is Grebs for real?

  10. Lowetide says:

    The Oilers right now are going to be the Leafs 68-71 soon if they’re not careful. That was the era where Tim Horton, Larry Hillman, Allan Stanley, Bob Baun and other veterans left and they had a TON of good young D (Dorey, Pelyk, Glennie, Selwood, McKenny, etc) who eventually had nice careers but made a lot of mistakes learning on the job.

    I remember poor Bob Goldham trying to find something good to say between periods every Saturday.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Vande Velde with a goal today, UND 2-0 winners.

  12. Bruce says:

    Yeah, LT, what was worst for Toronto fans (and I was one at the time) was that Dorey, Selwood and Rick Ley made all their OJT mistakes in Toronto, then had their nice careers in WHA cities cuz Harold Ballard was the worst owner in professional sports. Then there was a whole ‘nother era from ’72-75 when they tried to break in a new group of young D like Larry McIntyre and Joe Lundrigan and …

  13. Ducey says:

    Bruce, Grebs has looked good, I agree. Got to give Lowe credit. I think NYI might have given up on Grebs because they would have had to give him a one way contract (his entry level was up and he likely could have followed the Beatles back to the USSR). Given that NYI benched MAB and then dumped him for a 3rd rounder, the Grebs trade looks good now.

  14. Bank Shot says:

    I think Grebeshkov still makes a decision or two per game that borders on insanity, but he just hasn’t paid the price for it much lately.

    I guess you could do alot worse for a seventh D-man though.

    It’s all bully if the current college guys aren’t ready for two-three seasons or so. The Oilers blue line won’t be all that young then, and will probably be able to handle a rookie or two if they are quality.

  15. godot10 says:

    //The Oilers right now are going to be the Leafs 68-71 soon if they’re not careful.//

    Then why does everyone keep trying to trade Staios?

  16. kanadienkyle says:

    Bankshot,

    Having watched Vande Velde all year, its pretty safe to say that his production is mostly his doing, aside from the PP. When he was centering Oshie and Duncan, he looked lost. Now that he is with Kaip and Watkins, he is the straw that stirs the drink on that line. He is best at creating something off the rush, as he can really back defenders in when he gets a good head of steam going.

    LT is bang on in his assessment that Chorney has regressed. It seems he is trying to do too much every game and has either worn himself out or forgotten what his bread and butter is.

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