We are now at the time of year when the counting numbers are large enough for Gabriel Desjardins’ equivalencies to give us some focus. I don’t like to mix up leagues because there is evidence Gabriel’s number is a stronger match the closer you get to the NHL (which makes sense) so the AHL numbers are stronger than the college numbers.
To give you some background, Desjardins’ math suggested Andrew Cogliano would go 82gp, 17-19-36 (.439ppg) in the AHL this season, and he is 65gp, 11-21-32 (.492ppg). I consider that a solid match since there are so many variables (age, time on ice, et cetera) in projecting these things. Desjardins estimated Sam Gagner at 82gp, 16-39-55 (.670ppg) and he sits at 62gp, 7-27-34 (.548ppg). I think that’s a fair estimate, especially considering the number would be a little off because of the London Knights “Rob Schremp plays 30 minutes a night” airpump. He also had Robert Nilsson at 82gp, 10-27-37 (.451) and he’s at 54gp, 8-20-28 (.519) which any reasonable person would have to consider “in the range.”
Here then are the current Desjardins NHLE’s by league (and per 82gp and age in brackets):
- Cody Wild (20) 4-17-21
- Taylor Chorney (20) 2-15-17
- Jeff Petry (20) 2-13-15
Wild is having a much better NCAA campaign this year than last (NHLE 06-07, 5-7-12), up 9 points according to the projection season over season. Chorney has gone backwards a little (6-15-21 a year ago) and Petry’s debut in the NCAA at age 20 is quality. One question then is “how come he didn’t debut until so late?” considering Chorney has played 113 college games, Wild 95 (and Petry 36) we probably need to think about how much of a factor that is when comparing these numbers. Then again, Petry is stepping into a higher league and playing well.
- Riley Nash 11-12-23 (18)
- Chris Vande Velde 10-13-23 (20)
- Matt Glasser 3-2-5 (20)
- Robby Dee 1-3-4 (20)
Offensively Nash is clear of Cogliano at the same age (NHLE for Cogs at 18: 82gp, 8-11-19) and towers over Horcoff at the same age (7-9-16). He isn’t in the Comrie range (12-15-27) but they aren’t similar players either (Nash’s bio most closely matches Horcoff from the group here). I remain convinced this guy might be special. Vande Velde is putting up a nice season and may be a productive NHLer down the line but I’d say there’s every chance he spends another season in college (this is his sophomore season).
- Sebastien Bisaillon 5-13-18 (21)
- Danny Syvret 1-10-11 (22)
- Theo Peckham 6-2-8 (20)
- Bryan Young 0-3-3 (21)
We don’t know the impact Bisaillon’s injury will have (Bisaillon’s injury – a deep gash caused accidentally by the skate of an opposing player – damaged muscles and tendons in his right calf. It happened Jan. 4 in an American Hockey League game against the Providence Bruins. SOURCE: Garry Brown, the Republican) but he looks like he could help a little offensively. Peckham had a quality offensive season in junior and also has some potential. Young is never going to see center ice. Syvret is a very interesting case. He was plodding along all season before an AHL trade sent him to Hershey. In his 5 games with the Bears, he has 4 assists which gives some hope to a sagging career and possibly gives Kelly Buchberger’s reputation as a extreme defense-first coach some traction.
- Rob Schremp 9-26-35 (21)
- Marc Pouliot 15-18-33 (22)
- Liam Reddox 11-14-25 (21)
- JF Jacques 11-14-25 (22)
- Slava Trukhno 5-11-16 (20)
- Colin McDonald 6-8-14 (23)
- Ryan O’Marra 3-9-12 (20)
Comparing this number with Schremp’s NHLE a year ago (10-21-31) shows he is headed in the right direction offensively, while Pouliot (16-20-36NHLE in 06-07) is going the wrong way a little. Liam Reddox is now about even with JF Jacques (they weren’t in the same hemisphere a year ago, Jacques’ NHLE was 13-23-36 and Reddox was in the ECHL). Trukhno’s numbers are about where Tyler Spurgeon’s were one year ago and Colin McDonald looks like an also-ran. O’Marra seems to be enjoying a late spurt but it isn’t showing up in the stats column enough to make a difference.
What does it all mean? If a non-Oiler fan read this he/she might walk away with the opinion that the Oilers have a kid named Nash who is doing well in college, three pretty nice 20-year old defensemen in the NCAA, an injured AHL defenseman who might be something and two or three AHL forwards who might have a career if they get lucky.
And really that’s about right.