Ciphering

Signed, Sealed and Delivered (Cap Hit):

  • G-Garon 1.1M; Roloson 3.67M
  • LD-Souray 5.4M; Smid .886M
  • RD-Gilbert 4M; Staios 2.7M; Greene 1.15M; Roy .500M
  • C-Horcoff 3.6; Cogliano 1.133M; Brodziak .497M
  • LW-Penner 4.25M; Torres 2.25M; Nilsson, 1.83M; Moreau 2M
  • RW-Hemsky 4.1M; Pisani 2.5M; Gagner 1.625M
  • TOTAL INVESTED: $43,191,000 for 18 players

Guessing the UFA Hit

  • Glencross: 3 years, $1.8M/yr.
  • Reasoner: 1 year, $1M/yr

Guessing the FA Hit

  • Stoll: 1 year, 2.2M/yr
  • Grebeshkov: 3 years, $2M/yr.
  • Pouliot: 3 years, $1M/yr
  • Pitkanen: 1year, $4.4M/yr

All signed, that would be 24 players (one over the limit) for a total of $55,591,000 which is under the projected cap ($56,300,000). Dropping the 24th (extra) man, Mathieu Roy, would leave the Oilers $1.2M under the cap.

NOTE: The cap numbers for RFA and UFA’s are obviously guesses and this assumes Kevin Lowe is content bringing back last season’s roster intact. Both are obviously incorrect but it gives us a nice starting point.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

43 Responses to "Ciphering"

  1. PunjabiOil says:

    I did the same calculations on my blog, got 55.844M of 24 players.

    You had Glencross at a higher estimate than mine (1.6M). Reasoner we’ve agreed at 1M. I had Grebeshkov at 1.65M. Pitkanen at 4.5M. Pouliot at .650M.

    Our biggest disagreement? Stoll. You have him at 2.2M, I have him at 2.75M.

    The reason being simply. Inflation over the past 2 years (rising cap), and the Oilers would be stupid to sign him to only a 1 year deal – making him a UFA next summer and losing him for nothing. I think the Oilers will sign him to a 2 year deal, in the neighborhood of 2.75-3.00M.

    Just my opinion. I’ve been wrong on estimates before.

  2. oilerdago says:

    On Stoll, if I’m not mistaken the Oilers can qualify him w/a 10% raise – $2.42 million if they choose.

  3. jon k says:

    I think the Grebeshkov term will differ from the proposed figure.

    Lowe tends to “maximize” his assets, and a 3 year deal would bring Grebeshkov right to his UFA age. I’d bet that Lowe gets him signed to a 2 year deal for around $2, or a 4+ year deal for more.

    Because of the marked change in Grebeshkov’s game over the course of the season, I think both sides will opt for 2 years with the understanding of putting a longer term deal in after that’s up.

  4. Matt says:

    Are we pretty confident that the cap is going up by another $6M? Whose calculations (or sources) are assuring us of this?

  5. jon k says:

    There are indications that the Martin/Jokinen feud is coming to a head with ownership on Martin’s side.

    Combined with Florida’s advertised need for a pucking-moving offensive defensemen, and I suspect that HF will soon be populated with Pitkanen+ for Jokinen rumours.

  6. Slipper says:

    Where is all this new revenue coming in from? A six million bump per team would mean something like a 350 million dollar increase. Right?

    Maybe someone smarter than I can explain to me how the cap is going to continue to rise, beyond inflation. Outside of moving the games to football stadiums, where’s the new revenue going to come from?

    ENHL?

  7. Slipper says:

    Pitkanen, Torres, Stoll, Schremp and ANA’s first for Jokinen and Horton?

  8. Bruce says:

    LT: You forgot Stortini again.

  9. Steve says:

    Pitkanen, Torres, Stoll, Schremp and ANA’s first for Jokinen and Horton?

    I’d be surprised if that package landed us Jokinen, let alone both of them.

  10. Slipper says:

    Yeah, it’s pie in the sky-ing.

  11. PunjabiOil says:

    If Joni is getting trade, and LA is interested, I make sure to get Frolov coming back the other way.

    Pitkanen + Stoll + 2009 Third

    For

    Frolov + 2008 second round pick

  12. godot10 says:

    I don’t think the Oilers have to offer Stoll a raise to qualify him. Stoll will likely sign the qualifying offer. It makes no sense for Stoll to sign anything but his qualifying offer, if he is going to be a UFA after next season. It really makes no sense for the Oilers to offer him more than a year.

    If Glencross signs, then one of Pitkanen, Stoll, Reasoner, Torres, or Pouliot has to go.

    I think Carolina is the most likely destinaton for Pitkanen if a contract can’t be agreed to with the Oilers.. Pitkanen to Carolina for Cole (UFA next summer) and Carolina’s 1st.

    I think it makes the most sense to sign Pitkanen for two years @ $4 million per, and trade Stoll.

  13. godot10 says:

    Most of the salary cap escalation this year is from the rising loonie still, not anything fundamental.

  14. godot10 says:

    Sign Pitkanen for 2 years. Sign Grebeshkov for 2 years, because how much to pay for his UFA years is unclear at this point. Use the next two years to see how good Chorney, Petry, and Peckham are going to be.

  15. dawgbone says:

    I can’t see Joni getting a 1 year deal for $4+ mil… he’s coming off his worst offensive year so far and I can’t see him getting that on a 1 year deal.

    As for the rising cap, wasn’t there talk that the NHL just set attendance records this year? You’d have to think that had a big impact on league finances, plus there are a lot of big markets in the playoffs this time around.

  16. Alice says:

    D-bone,

    Let’s hope the cap is not ratcheting up because of some lucky ‘this year’ distribution of playoff markets, or pressure from the owners who realize their GM’s haven’t quite cottoned on to the cap discipline and have got themselves hung out now with 7M+ contracts etc. If the cap is going to work it needs to move up slowly, hopefully linked to real numbers.

    Because the cap increase only gives you breathing room on your old, long-term contracts, anything new will float up towards the new ceiling. If that ceiling moves quickly, nobody’s going to want to sign 6yr deals, are they?

    On another side, pressing the cap, what can a GM offer a player that doesn’t count against the cap- ie. what non-monetary compensation can he offer? There’s one I can think of, the dreaded NTC. If it can shave you .5M off each of 3 contracts, do you go there, or is it pure poison? I’d like to hear, esp in light of JFJ getting the can at least partly over that.

  17. Coach says:

    Brooks’ guesstimate for the cap hit has been questioned. Lowe [or Prendergast] said about $55mm

    Just say no to Pitkanen at $4.4 for 2 years. With no UFA time, look to $3.75 per year, or a trade to Buffalo for Afinogenov + Lloydminster’s Clarke MacArthur.

    Glencross’ shooting percentage was 13% over the last few months of the year [per IOF]. That’s not likely to be repeated; double this year’s salary – $522,500 x 2 = $1,045,000 per. Throw in a signing bonus.

    Pouliot & Reasoner should total $1.5 mm, not $2 mm.

  18. Coach pb9617 says:

    LT, I think Grebs gets two years, not three. Why take him to the UFA year?

    Also, there is no way that Moreau, Torres and Stoll all come back. One of them is gone, so there is at least $3.25 million in cap space if Roy is sent down. Combine that with Roloson coming off, and the other of Stoll/Torres leaving next year and there is your Horcoff extension and RFA reups.

  19. doritogrande says:

    Atlanta needs a defenseman. Does Atlanta need their first rounder this year?

    Pitkanen straight up for the #3 pick?

    Grebeshkov and our first rounder for the #3 pick?

    If it were up to me, and this is assuming that the Atlanta GM doesn’t know what he’s doing, I’d take the latter option. We’d walk away with money for Pitkanen, and one of Doughty/Bogosian. Now that’s a fleecing.

  20. MattM says:

    Grebeshkov and our first rounder for the #3 pick?

    I’m pretty sure Atlanta’s GM is incompetent, but I don’t think he’s that incompetent. I could see the Pitkanen deal value-wise from Atlanta’s perspective, especially considering that if they stick with another full-blown rebuild Kovalchuk will probably walk 2 years down the road. They need to get better soon, I think.

    For Edmonton, I guess it makes sense if you assume that this team isn’t as good next year as it’s record this year. Basically, you’d just be rolling the talent a few years into the future. If you’re willing to let Pitkanen go for futures, 3rd overall is probably better than waiting and seeing how a potential offer sheet turns out.

    That said, I’d rather see Pitkanen signed or traded for something more immediate.

  21. CM says:

    could anyone think of a senario where you could put Horcoff, Pitkanen, Schremp and a 1st for Jokinen and Bouwmeester. Or is that just crazy talk?

  22. doritogrande says:

    cm:

    Pretty sure it’s been well documented that Boumeester does NOT want to play here. Your 4 for 2 deal also doesn’t scream quantity for quality either, as it would appear that our first rounder this year won’t be the late-20′s pick if Dallas continues to have it’s way.

  23. HBomb says:

    could anyone think of a senario where you could put Horcoff, Pitkanen, Schremp and a 1st for Jokinen and Bouwmeester. Or is that just crazy talk?

    Not crazy, but I’d rather they just tried to do something to get Boumeester alone (if it was there for the taking).

    Call me crazy, but I’d rather have Horcoff than Jokinen over the next five years. Maybe he doesn’t put up the counting numbers Jokinen has, but Horcoff’s probably a better fit as the tough-minute complement to Gagner first destroying soft competition and then gradually taking on more of the load in the tough minutes area.

  24. jon k says:

    Something that I was thinking of that might make sense is a Pitkanen for Bouwmeester swap.

    Jay has made it clear he’s going to walk once his UFA comes so Florida is running out of time with him. He’s the type of defenseman we need on the core now.

    Pitkanen wants more money than we want to give, FLA needs an offensive defenseman, and another Finn as the team captain might make Joni more comfortable.

  25. Big T says:

    Bouwmeester will be signing for $5.5MM plus won’t he? How does that help the cap situation?

    T

  26. HBomb says:

    Bouwmeester will be signing for $5.5MM plus won’t he? How does that help the cap situation?

    Well, if you send out, say, Stoll plus Pitkanen for Boumeester, you save probably around 1.-1.5 million total in cap hit per season.

    In other words, perhaps enough money to pay Curtis Glencross?

    Boumeester would be an upgrade on Pitkanen, but the question remains whether or not he’d be willing to sign here long-term.

  27. Boondock says:

    Instead of Pitkanen + Stoll for Bouwmeester, how about those two to LA or ATL for a top 3 pick and then offer Redden 2 yrs – 11M?

    That would leave us flexible for 2 years from now when Gagner/Cogliano get their raises, and while Bouwmeester > Redden, is Bouwmeester > Redden + Top 3 pick?

  28. Alice says:

    I confess I fail to see why Pitkanen seems to be always in play, didn’t someone recently post here Oilers success rate with/without him in the lineup? If his impact on this particular squad overshadows his counting points, doesn’t that make Lowe’s job easier?

    The only question mark is his durability.

  29. DBO says:

    grebeshkov signs for 1 year. Per the edmonton Oilers website. no details on the salary.

  30. Ribs says:

    Rollin’ Rollin’ Rollin’…

  31. Steve says:

    For one year, the contract had better not be much more than the qualifying offer. I like Grebshkov and wouldn’t have minded paying for term, but on a one year contract he’d better be coming cheap.

  32. pboy says:

    Lowe isn’t waiting around that’s for sure. I would to read something in one of the Edmonton papers that he’s been talking to Horcoff’s agent………..

  33. godot10 says:

    //Instead of Pitkanen + Stoll for Bouwmeester, how about those two to LA or ATL for a top 3 pick and then offer Redden 2 yrs – 11M?//

    Redden has been pathetic for the last two seasons in Ottawa.

    The Oiler faithful would be having Tom Poti flashbacks before the end of October.

  34. jon k says:

    Hate to talk a good player down, but Redden has regressed the past few seasons, likely due to multiple substantial injuries over that period and even before then. His icetime has decreased consecutively for the past 3 seasons.

    Put it all together and it’s unfortunate to say that he’s likely already seen the peak of his career come and go.

    A one-year deal for Grebeshkov is good news. Less money this year when we might be getting close to the cap, and it allows one more year to determine an established level of play before potentially signing him long term.

    The thing to keep in mind with Bouwmeester is that FLA is reluctant to pay him more than $5.5 million. At this point he’s still far from a perfect player defensively, let alone the continuing development of his offensive game. While he can be effective using his speed or size, he’s still sometimes prone to mental lapses, letting his man elude him or come off the boards with the puck.

    That being said, the skillset he brings is exactly what we’re missing right now. A good to very good balanced defender capable of taking the tough minutes.

  35. AngleRaise says:

    Is it crazy to think that Lowe might just hope that Buffalo (or another team) gives an offer sheet for Pitkanen? Now that Campbell has left Buffalo, they seem to need an offensive defenseman. I believe that compensation for an offer sheet of $5.5m would be four first round picks, although depending on inflation it may only be two first rounders, a second and a third rounder.

    I think Pitkanen is great, but he had a less than great year and I don’t believe he wants to stay in Edmonton. I am not certain that his trade value is all that high right now. While I think the $4.5m mentioned at the top is fair, I think Pitkanen will be looking for $5m+.

    I like Bouwmeester too, but if he does not want the pressure that will come with playing at home I don’t see why we would consider trading for him at this point.

    On the whole, I think our defensive core is very strong (if inexperienced) and $5 million would be better spent on an addition at forward.

  36. Big T says:

    Brownlee is saying Grebeshkov at $1.5MM over the one year. Take it for what it’s worth.

    T

    PS – I hope he’s right!

  37. PunjabiOil says:

    Grebeshkov is signed at 1 year deal for 1.5M according to Oilersnation.

    I kind of wished it a longer term deal. I’m usually in the favor of long term contracts to good young players.

  38. Coach pb9617 says:

    didn’t someone recently post here Oilers success rate with/without him in the lineup?

    .5 gpg in both directions

  39. jon k says:

    Buffalo doesn’t have the budget to place an offer sheet that will succeed on Pitkanen.

    Why would Buffalo make an offer of 5.5-6.0 in the long term when they likely could have signed Campbell for that? Especially since that offer sheet would cost them an additional two first round picks, one second round, and one third round pick while Campbell would have cost none.

    Further, I would hope Regier isn’t stupid enough to negotiate an offer sheet under the assumption that Lowe will match it, because frankly after the “five assets” debacle Lowe might figure that Pitkanen is maybe worth those four.

    Lastly, my rant will end by clarifying that this team’s problem was not goal scoring this season, it was goal preventing. Souray and Pitkanen healthy with Smid, Gilbert, and Grebeshkov a year more experienced might help, but not as much as we need probably.

  40. Dennis says:

    Grebs is two more years away from UFA, right? He turns 25 in Oct and how does that work? Will be be a UFA come 2010 or 2011?

    Right now, overall, it looks like the Oilers are either unconvinced/or the price isn’t simply right to the point where they’re ready to commit term and cash to either of 25 or 37.

    Oilers can put Grebs in a role — not on the PP — to the point that he won’t build up his counting stats during the ’09 season. Then again, they could’ve done the same thing with Gilbert, ie just fed the ’09 PP time to the 44-25 combo.

    But it’s getting to the point where service time and UFA years purchased are just as important as counting stats.

  41. PunjabiOil says:

    Grebs is two more years away from UFA, right? He turns 25 in Oct and how does that work? Will be be a UFA come 2010 or 2011?

    I believe it’s 2011 Dennis, as by July 1, 2010 Grebeshkov will be 26.

    Best to defer to Speeds.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca