Desjardins NHLE for AHL 07-08

This is Marc Pouliot as a Springfield Falcon. He has now been an AHL regular for three seasons and in that time played about 1 full NHL season in terms of GP.

Pouliot’s stats are running in place a little and Desjardins’ NHLE has pretty much nailed his established level of ability.

Here, let’s list the Marc Pouliot NHL equivalencies through the eyes of Gabriel Desjardins’ NHLE:

  • Age 20 82gp, 9-19-28
  • Age 21 82gp, 16-20-36
  • Age 22 82gp, 15-19-34

These numbers assume the same playing time and quality of linemates when plopping said player into the higher league, and rip off 50% or more of the offense off the top. The likelihood Pouliot would see the PP as much as he did in the AHL isn’t high, so when looking at these numbers we’d need to adjust for the role a player would have at the NHL level.

Let’s start by listing the 06-07 NHLE for the Oilers AHL regulars that season:

  1. Robert Nilsson 82gp, 10-27-37 (21)
  2. Marc Pouliot 82gp, 16-20-36 (21)
  3. Jean Francois Jacques 82gp, 13-23-36 (21)
  4. Kyle Brodziak 82gp, 15-20-35 (22)
  5. Rob Schremp 82gp, 10-21-31 (20)
  6. Tom Gilbert 82gp, 3-18-21 (23)
  7. Mathieu Roy 82gp, 7-13-20 (23)
  8. Tyler Spurgeon 82gp, 6-12-18 (20)
  9. Alexei Mikhnov 82gp, 6-12-18 (24)
  10. Danny Syvret 82gp, 3-11-14 (21)
  11. Zack Stortini 82gp, 7-5-12 (20)
  12. Brock Radunske 82gp, 3-0-3 (23)
  13. Troy Bodie 82gp, 0-2-2 (21)
  14. Bryan Young 82gp, 0-1-1 (20)

Nilsson and Brodziak built on their seasons and became NHL regulars, while the two Q kids are still trying to catch the bus. Schremp lagged slightly behind one year ago. Among blueliners, Tom Gilbert and Mathieu Roy posted nice numbers. The top 5 AHL scorers by the Desjardins’ number in 06-07 saw NHL action the following season (and all were over 30 points by this metric).

Now this season (per 82gp):

  1. Rob Schremp 11-26-37
  2. Marc Pouliot 15-19-34
  3. Liam Reddox 9-17-26
  4. Jean Francois Jacques 11-14-25
  5. Tyler Spurgeon 3-22-25
  6. Slava Trukhno 9-13-22
  7. Jacob Micflikier 4-17-21
  8. Sebastien Bisaillon 6-13-19
  9. Stephane Goulet 9-6-15
  10. Mathieu Roy 3-11-14
  11. Colin McDonald 6-6-12
  12. Ryan O’Marra 3-9-12
  13. Danny Syvret 1-11-12
  14. Troy Bodie 6-3-9
  15. Theo Peckham 4-5-9
  16. Cody Wild 3-6-9
  17. Fredrik Johansson 5-2-7
  18. Tim Sestito 3-4-7
  19. Jonas Almtorp 2-2-4
  20. Bryan Young 0-4-4

Only 2 players (Schremp and Pouliot) made it over the 30 point line and in many ways are similar to Nilsson and Brodziak one year ago. Schremp is similar to Nilsson in that he’s 21 years old (as was Nilsson last spring) and has put up a top quality AHL season. Pouliot is similar to Brodziak in that he’s 22 years old (as Brodziak was a year ago) and seems to have done everything he can to prove himself at the minor league level. We’ll see.

Other notes:

  • Jacques had a disappointing season in all areas
  • Spurgeon might be a player if he could stay healthy
  • Reddox came from nowhere to have a fine season
  • Trukhno saved his year with that hot streak
  • Micflikier had a nice cup of coffee
  • Bisaillon is a guy we’ll need to keep our eyes on in camp
  • Goulet can score goals
  • McDonald had a bitterly disappointing offensive season
  • O’Marra’s year was a complete disaster
  • Cody Wild showed well in his cup of coffee

I think these numbers tell us Danny Syvret is probably not going to be an NHL player but I wouldn’t mind seeing him back in the organization again in the fall. He’s going to be 23 next year so there’s still time to find his way.

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15 Responses to "Desjardins NHLE for AHL 07-08"

  1. Jonathan says:

    On Goulet, courtesy of the Moncton Times & Telegraph:

    He was the second leading scorer for the Stockton Thunder in the East Coast Hockey League playoffs with nine points, including five goals, in six games.

    Any chance he does what Reddox did (i.e. move from the ECHL to AHL and establish himself as a legit prospect)?

  2. Dennis says:

    I know there’s lots of time but is anyone else worried that Pouliot hasn’t been resigned?

  3. Bruce says:

    Dennis: I’m more concerned that Zack Stortini — who for half the money played 66 GP to Pouliot’s 24 — isn’t signed. Yeah I know that’s just me and my admitted soft spot for Zack, but where I see poachers doing damage is at the lower end of the payroll where they can nab a valuable young player with little compensation.

    So I’d like for ZS, MP and JFJ all to be under contract well before July 1. Shouldn’t cost more than $2 MM for the three of them I wouldn’t think. Maybe Lowe is simply planning to exercise arbitration rights if negotiations don’t go smoothly …

  4. doritogrande says:

    jonathan:

    Goulet already had a full season in the ECHL, with Reddox, before this season.

    Reddox is the guy out of those two to back.

  5. Jonathan says:

    //Reddox is the guy out of those two to back.//

    Certainly. Still, this is the most we’ve seen out of Goulet, who’s improved every season since his draft year. A former 50-goal guy in the QMJHL, he’s a sleeper who might show enough (hopefully!) this season to earn a contract- not just get one, but actually be worth it.

    Off of that ECHL squad, there’s a couple of guys I’d be looking at- Goulet, O’Marra and maybe Micflikier.

  6. Dennis says:

    Bruce: I’ve got nothing against bringing back Zach but I don’t think his playing time should come at the expense of Pouliot.

  7. Bruce says:

    And it won’t Dennis; the two are entirely different players. I want them both to be signed, and I want them both to be playing. I think each will make the Oilers a better team in his own way. As indeed they did down that 14-5-1 stretch that closed out the season.

  8. Dennis says:

    I’m not entirely sure there’s room for both of them in a top 12, Bruce.

    There will be if we usher out a few vets and don’t bring back Glencross but I’m not sure if all of those things are gonna happen.

    There’s a lot of decisions to be made for the forward corps and when Lowe reveals his plans for Torres and Stoll, I guess we’ll see what that means for the young fellas.

    Note: I’d like to throw Moreau in there too but I don’t think there’s any chance he’ll be included among any “surplus” piles.

  9. Bruce says:

    Well Dennis we’ve come to this bridge before, and we ain’t neither of us crossing to the other side. I continue to maintain the Stortini-less line-up you keep proposing is far too soft, even with Zack we are in tough against a few conference rivals like Minnesota. You look for the 12 best players and I look for the best group, and that’s where Zack fills part of the profile like nobody else.

    And I’ll repeat a couple of stats for you:
    1) Zack had the lowest GA ON/60 of any full-season Oiler;
    2) Zack was +19/-9 in 2008
    3) Of the 16 games Zack sat out, Oilers won exactly one in regulation

    To me those are real solid positive numbers to support what my eyes, brain and gut are telling me. The Oilers are a better team with 46 in there, and he needs to stay in there.

    And I really do think there’s room for both. If they keep coming on like they did down the stretch they’ll make their own room.

  10. Jonathan says:

    Despite the fact that I’m not a fan of his, don’t these numbers show that Rob Schremp needs to get an NHL shot next season?

    Offensively, it’s hard to see him making much progress over what he already is- he needs to be dealt to a team with a spot for him

  11. Dennis says:

    Bruce: I also look for guys who might round into to something more than 4th liners and that’s why I’d favour 78 over 46. I came around to liking Zach but I still like Marc more.

    So, there;)

    Jon: Yeah, I agree on Schremp and I’d say it’s time to deal him because I doubt that his value’s about to get any higher; just how much higher can it get if he’s nothing more than an AHLer.

    We talked about places he might land and I think finding a combination of a team that Lowe’s dealt with before and/or one that’s dying to trying anything or anybody on the PP would be a good place to start.

  12. rickibear says:

    Dennis: Do you mean NYI. Or what team do you see that fits that criteria that can provide us a pick or asset suitable?

    We all look at: teams with needs; there prospects based on blogs and HF rankings; Draft picks and positions. Possible teams line-ups and there career NHL.com Stats: Summaries and RTSS.

    There is a multitude of combo’s but no real stand out.

    Do we package him with one of our ????.

    Its is easy to make that general statement but how would you do it!

  13. Bruce says:

    Bruce: I also look for guys who might round into to something more than 4th liners and that’s why I’d favour 78 over 46. I came around to liking Zach but I still like Marc more.

    I like ‘em both. Here’s one reason:

    Oilers “real hockey” W-L-T record in 2007-08 (shootouts as ties):

    With 46 and 78: 10-5-1 = .656
    With just 46: 15-23-12 = .420
    With just 78: 1-6-1 = .188
    Without either: 0-3-5 = .313
    ——————————-
    Overall: 26-37-19 = .433

    Yes it’s simplistic, there were lots of other factors at play at both ends of the season which is all that Pouliot saw. But early in the season the two were essentially #12 and 13 on the depth chart and were alternating quite a bit. The team fared poorly with 78 on the ice and 46 in the PB, and eventually Marc got demoted and Zack essentially won the job.

    After Pouliot’s recall they were no longer fighting for the same job but contributing to two different lines. The team did well, and an important part of the reason was that both our third and fourth lines were positive contributors. Marc was +6 after his call-up, Zack +4 after that date, and they very rarely played together. I felt comfortable with either guy (and his linemates) on the ice, and with both turning 23 over the summer I see no reason why that should change.

  14. Jonathan says:

    Dennis: Do you mean NYI. Or what team do you see that fits that criteria that can provide us a pick or asset suitable?

    I think one of the places that was mentioned was St. Louis- they’re a rebuilding team, have a level of familiarity as a trading partner, and have assets, either players, prospects or picks, that would suit the Oilers just fine. Plus, we all know how Pleau loves his Americans ;)

  15. Dennis says:

    RB: that team has a hard time scoring goals so I’d wager their PP isn’t exactly kickass. And yes, Lowe’s dealt with Snow before so, yeah, that’s probably a decent place to predict for a Schremp landing. As for a return, how about the Isles 2nd rounder? The only thing I’d say for sure is I’d move him now because I don’t think his value will ever be higher. Not sure what Nolan would think of trying to bring him in — him and Snow have gone to war over his use of another AHL scoring sensation in young Tambellini — but the Isles can’t score so they’re gonna have to take a chance on someone sometime.

    The whole quan for qual deal from Lowe’s prespective is something that happened once and that was when Lowe got the jump on the league and had the space to take on a big contract. So until that happens again I’ll consider that move a one-off.

    Jon: Yes, those guys need to take a chance on someone that might able to score, Stl I mean.

    Bruce: Of course it’s gonna depend on if Horc and/or Stoll comes back and then that trickles into Pouliot’s place on the club.

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