Draft Odds

This is Shawn Van Allen. He was selected 105th overall in 1987 by Edmonton and delivered 794 NHL games. By any stretch that’s covering a draft bet.

In 2004 a study of the 1979-1995 drafts showed:

1. 4,136 players were drafted by NHL teams.
2. 55% never played a game in the NHL.
3. 24% played less than 200 games.
4. 15% turned out to be average NHLers
5. 4% turned into impact players
6. 2% turned out to be a elite players

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11 Responses to "Draft Odds"

  1. Julian says:

    Thanks LT… do you have a link to the full study?
    Does anyone else have any other draft analysis studies, like ones that analyze it by team or by round?

  2. Lowetide says:

    julian: I lifted those numbers from the Hockey News Draft Issue (2004). The new one is out this week (I think) and that’s usually the time for me to sift through previous editions.

    As for other research, you can find lots of interesting things by googling. An example is this from a few years back (Proice Hockey, Jamie Fitzpatrick):

    To properly evaluate a draft, you need a few year’s distance from it. So let’s look at the 1990s, and for a definition of “NHL career,” let’s set the threshold at 200 games.
    Between 1990 and 1999, there were 2,600 names called at the NHL Entry Draft. As of 2007, 494 of those players have appeared in at least 200 NHL games. That’s a success rate of 19 percent.

    But of course, not all draft picks are created equal. The guys picked in the first round are a cut above the rest:

    Of the 494 successful players drafted in the decade, 160 were first-round picks.

    From that 160, over half have played more than 500 NHL games.
    Among the older players (those drafted from 1990 to 1994), six first-round picks have made it to 1,000 games. Another couple of dozen are still active and within reach of 1,000.

    A first-round draft pick has a 63 percent chance of playing at least 200 NHL games.

    The first round has it share of duds, and results can vary widely from eyar to year:

    The 1993 NHL Draft produced 22 career NHLers from 26 first-round picks.

    In 1999, the success rate was just 12-for-28.

    Beyond the first round, the NHL dream begins to fade in a hurry:

    From 1990 to 1999, about one-quarter of the players selected in the second round went on to an NHL career.

    Those drafted in the third round and beyond are really up against it. From over 2,000 players selected in the 1990s, just 261 graduated to careers in the NHL. That’s about 12 percent.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Also, YK Oil at Nothing to See Here (prompt to the right) is doing some tremendous breakdowns currently on the Oilers and their drafts. It’s excellent info.

  4. Julian says:

    Alright, thanks…. I was just wondering at what point picking players really becomes a matter of flipping a coin. As in, does a sixth rounder have the same chance of making it as an 8th rounder? Can scouts really tell the difference between a guy projected to go 150th over and a guy expected to go 180th?

  5. eyebleaf says:

    very interesting, indeed

  6. Jesse says:

    From that 160, over half have played more than 500 NHL games.

    So that’s what, less than a third of first-rounders? How many NHL games do you figure Penner has in him?

  7. Black Dog says:

    Van Allen looks like a goblin.

    The head on him.

  8. Jonathan says:

    Van Allen looks like a goblin.

    The head on him.

    Every time I watch a Mike Babcock press conference I have trouble not seeing him going down to his secret lab and putting on his Green Goblin suit. I can see him cackling on a glider as we speak…

    Anyways, Willem Dafoe could coach the Red Wings and nobody would notice the difference.

  9. Bruce says:

    How many NHL games do you figure Penner has in him?

    750 + would be my guess. Continued good health permitting (and back-to-back seasons of 82 GP bode well), he should just be playing #500 towards the tail end of his contract.

    Jesse: Good question.

  10. HBomb says:

    Anyways, Willem Dafoe could coach the Red Wings and nobody would notice the difference.

    You think Babcock looks like Dafoe?

    Shit, you should take a longer look at Andy Murray. Him and Willem were separated at birth….

  11. Jonathan says:

    You think Babcock looks like Dafoe?

    Shit, you should take a longer look at Andy Murray. Him and Willem were separated at birth….

    I can see it, but I stand by my original assessment. ;)

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