(Looks Like a) Double Glencross

We have talked about Curtis Glencross and what he might cost to the Edmonton Oilers. When I posted a number (3 years, $1.8M a year) it was met with some resistance and in fact it looks to me like the Oilers will be able to sign him for slightly less.

In an Edmonton Journal article today Jim Matheson writes “The Oilers are likely pitching UFA winger Curtis Glencross a two-year deal in the $1.1M dollar range, but his Saskatoon based agent Dave Kaye may be looking in the $2M neighborhood, citing Glencross’ goals-to-icetime ratio last year.”

The goals to minutes argument is easily countered by “he’s only done it in a very short period and has no history of success that would compare to his last 150 at-bats” which could be called the “Tuffy Rhodes” argument.

They could meet in the middle (2M + 1.1M divided by 2= $1.55M) and the Oilers will still come in under what I’d estimated (1.8M). There’s also a chance the Glencross side holds out for more.

And chances are they get it, if not from the Oilers then a team badly in need of someone who has shown ability (in a very short term) to play with abandon and score goals. Is he proven? No.

Does it matter? Not this UFA season.

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17 Responses to "(Looks Like a) Double Glencross"

  1. Asiaoil says:

    I like Glen X – but the guy is just as likely to return to obscurity as maintain his recent game. Offer $1.25 million or he can walk since this team is not short on bottom 6 forwards.

  2. PDO says:

    Why not tack on a 3rd year for him?

    Guarantee he and his kids are set for life, and keep the cap hit down….

    Obviously if he really is a player, he could set his grandkids and their kids up for life too with his 3rd contract.

  3. namflashback says:

    pdo, exactly — although I am in favour of keeping guys who are on the back 6 on short term contracts. If 1.55 over two sound good — 1.2 over three stays in range of “possible to over-perform.

  4. Sean says:

    I like the longer term lower cap hit option.

    The number above the dotted line is going to depend on GX’s confidence in his ability. He has bounced around in recent years so he may want the security. If he is fully confident (ie Grebeshkov), I think a one year 1.2 contract is gonna be the end result.

    The Oilers dont have the luxery to overpay another bottom 6 forward. Its gotta be a good contract.

  5. Bendelson says:

    Agreed,

    If $1.8 is the number, there is definately a problem. KLowe can’t pay that considering the RFA’s that need to sign this summer – nor should he…

    Someone else will likely step up and overpay GlenX if he doesn’t want to be an Oiler.

    Too bad though. He seemed like a good fit.

  6. Mark-Ryan says:

    Would anyone else be willing to pay that $1.8 if Torres’ $2.25 is gone before training camp?

    I’m a big believer in chemistry. Raffi has some with Stoll, but looks lost in every other combination I can think of.

    Can we risk overpaying him by $500,000 or so if we’re saving $450,000 from Raffi to Curtis? I think I’d do it.

  7. GorillazXL says:

    I’m hoping Lowe doesn’t make the same mistake in signing Glencross to a bloated contract like he did with Pisani, Roloson, Torres, Staios and Moreau; based on a good cup run.

    Glencross – $1.25M/a max

    GXL

  8. Dennis says:

    Mark-Ryan: 14′s looked good when playing with the 16-34 combo as well and he’s looked just playing with 34 on other occasions.

    If 51′s good Outside of playing with 20-46, I can’t see why he wouldn’t be able to learn on the job while taking Peca’s old place with the 14-34 combo.

    It might be that 14′s goal scoring potential has hit a huge bump and maybe he’s being paid too much for a guy that’s only gonna score ~ 15 goals a game but even last year was doing a job while playing tough min. I don’t believe in paying 20 a lot of coin because he would ostensibly be taking over the tough min LW role from 14. 12 isn’t going to be getting those min and 18 can no longer be counted on by sane people.

    Anyway, if Lowe is Actually balking, it’s nice to actually believe for a minute that Lowe’s got his foot down when it comes to 20′s contract wishes.

    The only way you pay him the kind of money he wants is if you’re sure he can play tough min and stay close to even in that role and we’ve seen no indication whatsoever that he can do that. Otherwise they should let him walk and I won’t feel bad about it and I won’t feel any malice toward’s 20 either. Here’s a chance for him to get paid and I don’t see anything wrong with him looking for the homerun. He’s in a profession where his skills have a limited shelf-life in terms of earning potential so I have no problem with him looking for the big payday.

    But when it comes to the Oilers, not everyone can afford to be paid and when you do dole out the money, you gotta be sure they can earn in. On the LW the decision has been made on 27 and he’s gonna have the world handed to him in terms of quality linemates and PP time, 12′s a guy we’re gambling can outscore the soft and then 14′s been able to do a job playing tough. If we’re to pay 20 as well, you’d better be sure he can take the 14 role and is anyone prepared to say that’s a given?

  9. Lowetide says:

    I think we need to backup and talk about Ethan Moreau. Is he a man who can be counted on?

    If not, the top 4LW:

    Penner
    Nilsson
    Torres
    Glencross

    would be something like ideal. Have JF Jacques as a 13-14F.

    The question I think comes down to Moreau. Is he done?

    I think we need to start talking about it.

  10. PunjabiOil says:

    How does the idea of spending 1.8-1.9M on Craig Conroy sound – 2 years?

  11. Dennis says:

    LT: I think the questions with Moreau are legion:

    - is he done
    - how much evidence will the brass need to be convinced of it
    - how do they get rid of him if they ever come to that conclusion?

  12. Asiaoil says:

    Dennis: pretty much agree with all you said about LW – we’ll see how it plays out and how we only go so far with 20s demands

    PJO: Conroy is an interesting idea especially if we could get him for a single year. If we trade Stoll – which I think we should do – then we could use a vet short-term until 51 and 78 are more ready for the toughs.

  13. Dennis says:

    LT: I think that’s wishful thinking more than anything else.

  14. Bendelson says:

    Why not place Moreau into a package, with Torres perhaps?
    I’d like to see KLowe pro-active this summer.

    Enticing package for Ottawa.

    I believe Souray has lots of hockey left.
    Don’t bail out yet LT! Next seasons PP and PK will both be very good – and he makes both better.
    The year off may just have extended his ‘productive’ years…

  15. Mark-Ryan says:

    Dennis: I don’t believe that Brodziak is good to play outside of that combo. His +/- and GA/60 were downright awful (a lot worse then it seemed from just watching the games) apart from that line. Like I said, I’m a believer in chemistry – Curtis showed a lot of it with those guys (and Pouliot), where Torres has failed to show any semblance of it with anybody but Stoll (who, let’s face it, is not the same player now that he was in 2005) and Pisani (and I really think he should be with faster, more consistent players).

    Lowetide: Sheldon played two more-or-less full seasons before this one, I’m not worried about his career in the same way I am about Moreau’s. I think Souray came back too soon to start the season, and lost a lot more time then he should have had he waited.

  16. Dennis says:

    I had posted early in the ’08 season that some of Brodziak’s non-counting stats were worrisome but I didn’t put too much stock into them because it was his first full year and he was on the cheap.

    Plus, it was hard to quantify but I found one thing I loved about the kid was he seemed to be always in the right place when it came to scoring chances, It took awhile before he began to cash in but once he did, it wasn’t surprising to me how he found himself in the scoring positions.

    Anyway we’ll see what 20 wants and then Lowe should go from there.

  17. RiversQ says:

    I’d like to have Glencross back, but when the conditions are right these guys get paid too much.

    Ask Scott Fraser.

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