Penner Trade

Kevin Lowe did a nice job framing the issue of the Dustin Penner offer sheet in the last couple of days. With the difference in draft number between the two clubs just 10 (12 to 22), Lowe was quoted as saying “it’s quite a bit different than the scenario that was painted some months ago where the sky was falling.”

When Dustin Penner was signed to his offer sheet last summer I felt it was a bad bet, and still believe it to be true. On the other hand, getting Dustin Penner for the 12th overall pick, the 42st (about) and 72nd (about) overall picks isn’t bad as a trade as it could have been and is barely criminal when you add in the money spent.

Should Kevin Lowe be gloating? God No. This could have blown up on him all kinds of ways.

Should Oilers fans feel good about the trade overall? Hell if I know, I think you might have been able to sign a better UFA for that money but then again not everyone wants to play here.

Should Kevin Lowe have done it in the first place? My answer is no. Too much risk (a possible lottery selection) for too little return (an NHL player who, while useful, is unlikely to deliver on his contract over the term).

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59 Responses to "Penner Trade"

  1. Earl Sleek says:

    On the other hand, getting Dustin Penner and the 22nd overall pick for the 12th overall pick, the 42nd (about) and 72nd (about) overall picks isn’t bad as a trade and is barely criminal when you add in the money spent.

    Yeah, but the 22nd overall pick wasn’t part of that trade. Lowe owned both the picks last summer and parted with one of them, right?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Good grief, you’re right. Thanks earl, and it is changed.

  3. Earl Sleek says:

    No worries, LT. I’ve found the recent stories about these draft spots to be pretty deceptive myself.

    Should Oilers fans feel good about the trade overall?

    I still don’t think this should be answered before Year Three of the deal at least, but at least the price of acquiring Penner is now mostly defined.

  4. Bohologo says:

    Earl writes: “the price of acquiring Penner is now mostly defined.”

    I like this phrasing, because it suggests that we take an investment view on the Penner deal. The price is now evident, but the return is not-yet.

    If Penner shows up in the fall fat and slow again, the return looks marginal. Not only that, but if Burke’s scouts come up with three solid picks in what’s apparently a deep draft, the opportunity cost of the lost picks similarly affects the return.

    My hope is that Penner spends some time in the gym, works on his skating, and Iginla steals his girlfriend, the Sedins key his new ride, & Statsny hacks his Facebook page, so he can add some snarl to his game. Overall, some consistency to augment the flashes of promise would be good to see.

  5. King Oil says:

    I think to get a full assessment How about combining the Pronger and Penner & Pitkanen deals since they all involved players from the original Pronger deal.

    Edmonton Got:
    ===========
    Anaheim Gave Up:
    ——————————-
    Ladislav Smid
    Dustin Penner
    Anaheims 1st in 08 (#22) & 07 (#30)

    Philadelphia Gave up:
    ——————————-
    Joni Pitkanen
    Geoff Sanderson

    Edmonton Gave Up:
    ==============
    Anaheim Got:
    ——————–
    Chris Pronger
    Oilers 1st, 2nd & 3rd in 2008 (#12,#42 & #72)

    Philadelphia Got:
    ————————
    Jason Smith
    Joffery Lupul
    Oilers 3rd in 2009

    Looking at it from that perspective the Penner signing helped turned a horrible one-sided Pronger deal in the favor of the Ducks into a pretty even deal

  6. Earl Sleek says:

    @ King Oil

    I think EDM gets Anaheim’s first rounder in ’09, also, right? Wasn’t there something built into the Pronger trade about Anaheim making the cup finals (which obviously has been accomplished)?

    Still, I’m not sure. We’ll have to see what the next couple of years look like for Penner.

  7. Oilman says:

    Framed that way, it’s:

    Chris Pronger, Jason Smith, Joffrey Lupul and a 1st, 2nd, and third in 08 for Penner, Pitkanen, Smid, Sanderson , 2 firsts and a 2nd.

    It still looks skewed the wrong way to me.

  8. Oilman says:

    Earl, it was (famously) 5 assets – Lupul, Smid, 07 first, 08 first, 08 2nd……nothing in 09

  9. Coach pb9617 says:

    for too little return (an NHL player who, while useful, is unlikely to deliver on his contract over the term).

    If Edmonton gets the bull of a player that Penner was for the last two weeks of the season, he’ll easily outearn that contract. If Horcoff and Hemmer stay healthy with him and he plays like that dominant force he can be, he’ll get really close to earning the trade too.

  10. Earl Sleek says:

    nothing in 09

    You’re right, Oilman. I knew there was something extra, but it’s not for 2009.

  11. Asiaoil says:

    As others have said – the total cost is now known but the return is still uncertain and this past season did little to clarify that point. Certainly the opinion widely circulated that we would be giving up a top 5 pick, that Penner was vastly over-rated, and that we should have spent the money on Smyth would show how valuable he is in COL has not been confirmed by actual results. The only thing surprising about all of this is that some people thought that there would be no surprises.

    I was wary about expecting too much of Penner in Year 1 and set 20goals and 50 points as a reasonable objective. He pretty much met this modest goal – but the bar goes up substantially next year and subsequent years. I expect him to be in shape and ready to rumble in September – and I do expect 30 goals and about the same number of assists in 08-09.

  12. rickibear says:

    The power of the internret:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/team/app?articleid=326892&page=NewsPage&service=page

    Pitkanen, Sanderson, Philly’s 3rd 2009 for Lupul and Smith.

    No can do on the trade value until Anaheim drafts the three assets.

  13. rickibear says:

    I suggest everyone do a read of the April to Aug 2007 News releases on the oiler web site. Refresh your interpretation of the sequence of events of the summer.

  14. Lowetide says:

    rickibear: Unless there’s a beer strike I’m going to go ahead and predict I don’t get that done. :-)

  15. Jonathan says:

    Framed that way, it’s:
    Chris Pronger, Jason Smith, Joffrey Lupul and a 1st, 2nd, and third in 08 for Penner, Pitkanen, Smid, Sanderson , 2 firsts and a 2nd.

    That’s because it’s wrong. The trade would actually be Pronger, Smith, 1st, 2nd, 3rd for Penner, Pitkanen, Smid, Sanderson, 2x1sts, and a 2nd. Lupul came and went; he doesn’t get added.

    And I don’t like viewing these three deals as one. They were a year apart, and made with two different teams.

  16. rickibear says:

    I am sure the headlines will work and you can read the 10 critical articles. As well read as you are the this would go well with 2-3 drinks of “company special” I mentioned in CIO comments earlier in the year.

    1oz Jack Daniels
    1oz Southern or Yukon Jack
    1oz Johnny Walker Red
    1oz Peach Brandy
    1oz OJ
    A squirt of Grenadine.

  17. Lowetide says:

    Whiskey angries up the blood. Those days are long gone for me. :-)

  18. Asiaoil says:

    I still think that the cleanest way to think about FCP is in terms of what we paid for him in the summer of 2005 and what we sold him for 12 months later – just like any other investment

    Bought Summer of 2005: 100 shares of FCP
    Paid: Brewer, Woywitka, Lynch

    Sold Summer of 2006: 100 shares of FCP
    Received: Lupul, Smid, 2 first round draft picks, 1 second round draft pick

    That’s the deal and it should be viewed as such without bringing in other subsequent deals or side trasnactions or signings. Looked at this way we bought very low and sold fairly high (that’s good) but we still sold below market value (which is bad).

  19. Oilman says:

    I know what you’re getting at jonathan, but Pronger came and went too? So do we replace his name with Brewer, Woywitka, and Lynch?

    I agree with you that it’s gets a little ridiculous after a while – but you can still link the players connected in the original trade to the assets they eventually returned.

  20. danny says:

    In a very unconventional path, the Oilers finished whereabouts most people expected, maybe slightly better. A lot of people pegged them 10th in the West.

    I was ok with surrendering a pick within that range for Penner. I probably would have preferred for Burke to match, but I stand firm that the odds on the return for EDM vs ANA are slanted heavily in the Oilers favour…

    LT makes a good point, in the risk that was taken by Lowe, and the plight of injuries, erratic play and slumping players made sure we became well aware of how much a reality it was that we could be a lottery team.

    Considering the predicament Lowe was in, under the gun from the EIG in a PR nightmare, where EDM crashed from the toast of the country to the NHL’s personal poriah, the doors being blown off the ownership frugality and 94 becoming a divisional rival (yes it was a hockey decision, meaning, he was too much for the lowest budget in the NW at the time he was traded)…. well… i can see where it was a risk you might have to take no?

  21. oilerdiehard says:

    It is nice see this post. No more we gave Anaheim Denis freaking Potvin posts. ;)

  22. Dennis says:

    I have been admittedly all over the place on this signing.

    I was about the only numbers guy who supported it last summer because I thought that if the club was healthy they’d be middle of the pack anyway so their first round pick might be in a slot where Penner could cover that bet.

    Then Penner gets off to a slow start and the Oilers come up with a rash of injuries and I’m siding with LT wondering why Lowe would want to take such a gamble anyway.

    The Penner goes on a rip and you can see how Lowe might fall for him, ie the size and ability to gain ground around the net which is a skill replicated by no one else on our roster.

    Then Penner stumbles down the stretch and looks winded and his conditioning once again becomes something worth worrying about and even though he was the leading goalscorer, he took up a lot of TOI doing so.

  23. dawgbone says:

    I know his counting numbers aren’t great, but everytime he was on the ice with Hemsky, 83 had acres of space.

    I guess the real question is how were the offensive totals of Penners linemates affected when he was with them vs when he wasn’t?

    He’s not going to touch the puck much when Hemsky and Horcoff are on his line, so that may hurt his point totals a bit. That being said if he’s having a positive impact on them (both Hemmer and Horcoff were on pace for career years), we may have to look a bit past his goals and assists.

    He causes a lot of mismatches, even when he’s away from the puck.

  24. Bruce says:

    Just throwing out there the idea that the absence of Penner hurt Anaheim during the playoffs.

    IIRC correctly, Burke blew $4 MM of the cap on Todd Freaking Bertuzzi in July, and that’s what opened the door to a rogue offer on his rookie winger that he couldn’t match. A very good argument could be made that Bertuzzi replaced Penner on the roster and on the payroll. Oops.

    Burke allowed his promising young Stanley Cup champion to walk in favour of misplaced loyalty in a career loser with a history of torching Burke’s own team. For that loyalty (and for that $4 MM) Bertuzzi scored all of 14 goals in 2007-08, then really raised his game in the playoffs, racking up 6 GP, 0-2-2, -2, 14 PiM in yet another early exit. No surprise: in the playoffs Bertuzzi’s career rates of production are about a third lower in points per game (down from 0.73 to 0.50) and goals per game (down from >0.30 to <0.20), while his penalty minute totals are 2/3 higher, rising from 1.44 PiM/GP to 2.41.

    Bertuzzi’s penchant for bad penalties resurfaced yet again in the series, as he took 7 penalties in just 85:29, including his usual coterie of interference, tripping and holding penalties. In the two games the Ducks won, Bertuzzi had his two lowest ice times of the series, under 12 minutes in each case. Hardly an impact player … at least, not a positive impact.

    Now if I really wanted to be silly, I could project that the absence of Penner may have improved Oilers’ draft position on the conditional Pronger pick, from as low as #30 all the way up to #22. Same line of reasoning as those who “credit” the Smyth trade with the Gagner pick; Smyth’s absence caused Oilers to be worse and improved their draft position. Of course I’m not really making that argument, it’s simply an unprovable supposition, but one thing’s for sure: the Ducks were a worse team without Dustin Penner this playoff season than they had been with him the previous two.

  25. Earl Sleek says:

    Just throwing out there the idea that the absence of Penner hurt Anaheim during the playoffs.

    The Ducks were short on quality forwards, that’s for sure.

    And yes, the presence of Bertuzzi was a disaster, though I think it was compounded by having Doug Weight also.

    Those were two guys who had to be somewhere on the top two lines, but generally couldn’t be played with each other (neither would shoot the puck without a gun to his head), and splitting them apart meant that two lines got dragged down.

    So did Penner’s absence hurt? Sure, because he was replaced by crap, but I don’t think that necessarily means he wasn’t replaceable. Just not replaced very well.

  26. Bank Shot says:

    Not only that, but if Burke’s scouts come up with three solid picks in what’s apparently a deep draft, the opportunity cost of the lost picks similarly affects the return

    If this draft is great like they say, and picks 1-15 are star players, then I think Lowe and Co. can definitely be taken to task for giving up a high pick in a solid draft. That is a case where the proffesionals should be able to see the writing on the wall.

    However, I think you have to throw the actual players picked out the window when judging the value of the 42nd and 72nd picks. The draft is just too great of a crapshoot outside of the first round.

    For instance Boston got Lucic from the second in the Samsonov deal, but the chances of the Oilers getting equal or greater return on that pick, especially so soon after the 06 draft would be about nil to none.

  27. therealdeal says:

    I think maybe the best that could be said about this trade is that the picks given up aren’t as valuable as they could have been and Penner is not underperforming his contract as much as most of us thought he would.

  28. Lowetide says:

    I do like him as a player. I think he’s Chuck Lefley, though.

  29. DBO says:

    Yeah it was a lot for Penner, but what are you expecting from the 12th pick? For the most part you would be waiting 2 years for that pick to reach the bigs. then in the first year if he’s a really good rookie you could expect 15 goals. year 4 maybe 25, and year 5 if he develops maybe 35 (high side). Now looking at Penner, you had 23 this past year, and if he provides 25 to 30 goals per year for the next 4 years you have a player that would out produce any possible draft pick short of it being a superstar (which is unlikely at 12). Yeah Lowe reached for Penner, and over paid. But if he truly believed they were a year or 2 from competing, then Penner will do more to reach the cup then any draft pick we could have used this year.
    The biggest mistake was the Souray deal, where we competed against ourselves and Lowe was determined to make a splash. He is the albatross around our necks, and we have him for 2 more years guaranteed, which is why we won’t sign a vet dman, in the hopes he stays healthy and provides leadership and toughness, while chipping in for 30 points mostly on the PP.

  30. Jonathan says:

    I don’t know if Penner’s contract is all that bad- Bertuzzi is one comparable, Bill Guerin is another (9M/2yrs). Guerin produced an equal number of goals, fewer assists, and is one of those big “power forward” types.

    Still, Penner’s contract certainly wasn’t a bargain.

  31. rickibear says:

    //So did Penner’s absence hurt? Sure, because he was replaced by crap, but I don’t think that necessarily means he wasn’t replaceable. Just not replaced very well.//

    Earl Sleek:Great line and I am about to use part of it.

    So did Smyth’s absence hurt? Sure, because he was not replaced right away, but I don’t think that necessarily means he wasn’t replaceable( some of his intagibles roles were assumed by others.) Just not fully replaced until we got Dustin Penner.

    Thank heavens we got Dustin Penner’s prescence and scoring or we would not have finnished 10th.

    Leadership: Moreau
    PK: Reasoner
    Never Quit: Horcoff
    Scoring: Penner

    Three were already on salary and the fourth will learn to have those characteristics. It is what being an Oiler is.

  32. Rick says:

    Considering all the circumstances that were stacked against Penner coming in and having a good first season in Edmonton I think he did pretty well when all was said and done.

    Certainly well enough that we should fully expect him to improve his numbers next season.

  33. Bruce says:

    Yeah it was a lot for Penner, but what are you expecting from the 12th pick? For the most part you would be waiting 2 years for that pick to reach the bigs. then in the first year if he’s a really good rookie you could expect 15 goals. year 4 maybe 25, and year 5 if he develops maybe 35 (high side).

    DBO: “If he develops”, there’s the rub. The Oilers have drafted exactly two players in the last quarter century (Satan and Smyth in ’93 and ’94) who have recorded a 35-goal season. Before Satan you have to go all the way back to Walt Poddubny in 1980 as a 35-goal man drafted by the Oilers. 1980, ferfuxsakes. Oilers drafted five 35-goal guys those first two drafts, two since.

    Ales Hemsky, by all accounts a successful 13th-overall pick, got to 19 goals by Year 5 after being drafted. By Year 7, he’s all the way up to 20. (Yeah, yeah, I know, he’s a playmaker, but the point is goal scorers don’t grow on trees.)

    So when Lowe saw a guy who had just scored 29 goals in his rookie season there for the signing, why the hell not? Yes it’s a deep draft, but how many 30-goal scorers are in it? How many of them will make it down to Oilers’ pick (unknown at the time of the Penner signing) and what are the chances we’ll actually identify one and pick him? Then, as you say, how long do we have to wait?

    Oilers draft history, picks 10-17:

    12. Tyler Wright (1991)
    13. Ales Hemsky (2001)
    13. Jani Rita (2001)
    13. Joe Hulbig (1992)
    13. Michael Henrich (1998)
    14. Michel Riesen (1997)
    14. Devan Dubnyk (2004)
    15. Jason Soules (1989)
    15. Jesse Niinimaki (2002)
    15. Alex Plante (2007)
    16. Nick Stajduhar (1993)
    17. Scott Allison (1990)
    17. Alexei Mikhnov (2000)

    Which leads to the following two conclusions: 1) Ouch. 2) Yeah, Penner!

  34. Bruce says:

    Oops, make that 1999 that Lovely Rita was drafted.

  35. PunjabiOil says:

    However, I think you have to throw the actual players picked out the window when judging the value of the 42nd and 72nd picks.

    The 72nd overall pick was traded to the NYI at the deadline for Marc-Andre Beregeron.

    I’m still confused on Penner. If we missed our opportunity to draft a guy like Getzlaf or Parise, it hurts. Or even a Radulov (14th overall – 2004). All depends on how deep this draft will be.

    The other part of it is – how good will he be next season? Did Horcoff have that big of an impact on his numbers? Can he do more with his TOI at EV?

  36. Bruce says:

    If we missed our opportunity to draft a guy like Getzlaf or Parise, it hurts. Or even a Radulov (14th overall – 2004).

    PJO: We missed our chance to draft Radulov even though we actually had a draft pick (Dubnuk, 14th overall; Radulov, 15th) And we missed our chance to draft both Parise and Getzlaf in 2003 by trading our pick at the moment both were still available.

    So if some good player goes in the 12 hole or a little further down, it’s simplistic to blame the Penner transaction on the Oilers missing him. The equation would be: If we hadn’t given up that pick and if we had used it to draft the right player … So two variables, and as detailed above, the Oilers’ track record during that area of the first round has not been very good no matter who was available.

  37. Sean says:

    Buying Penner is like buying a 7.50 beer at the Oilers game. It may not be worth it but at least you have beer. People forget far to quickly that Pronger left, Nylander bailed and KLo pretty much tried to sign any NHL player with a pulse. Getting players for assets almost always works in favor of the team getting the player. Unless Anaheim drafts Getslaf, advantage Edmonton.

    If you actually think a team can win a playoff series with Nylander, Gagner, Cogliano and Nilsson in your top 6, you need to watch some playoff hockey. Demitra might score more EV/60 points but there are reasons why these players are available for 5 million a year. The bullies won last year and a team like Philly is in the Eastern finals this year. Dustin Penner may not be Iginla or Morrow but I’ll take him in a playoff series over Straka and a first rounder any day.

  38. HBomb says:

    Buying Penner is like buying a 7.50 beer at the Oilers game. It may not be worth it but at least you have beer.

    Damn, that’s a quality line right there. Pure genius.

  39. PDO says:

    Bruce:

    Arnott scored 33 and 32 during his career. Comrie also has a 33 goal season under his belt.

    Figured it was only fair to mention those two, who came very close to making that look a lot better. They probably just had two go off the post and out instead of off the post and in ;)

  40. Bruce says:

    Right you are PDO. Tikkanen had a 34-goal season as well, just missing the 35 DBO had mentioned. But since he did mention it as a possible high side outcome for a good draft pick, I used that number as the standard.

    Meanwhile, I will cheerfully predict right now today that Dustin Penner will have at least one 35-goal season within the life of his current contract.

  41. therealdeal says:

    I don’t know if Penner’s contract is all that bad- Bertuzzi is one comparable, Bill Guerin is another (9M/2yrs). Guerin produced an equal number of goals, fewer assists, and is one of those big “power forward” types.

    I think the fact you’re comparing Penner to these two players as a defence says all you need to know about the guy.

    I will say, I like Penner, he’s a useful player in a variety of ways, but I don’t think he’ll live up to that contract and defining the value of the picks is tricky.

  42. Master Lok says:

    Another effect of the Penner contract is how much effect did it have on other GM’s in resigning their RFA young players? Dion Phaneuf for example?

    By opening the offer sheet salvo – I believe it forced other GM’s to dip into their salary cap to resign their younger players to higher-than-before salaries… and hopefully make it a salary cap battle as much as a drafting battle.

  43. PunjabiOil says:

    Buying Penner is like buying a 7.50 beer at the Oilers game. It may not be worth it but at least you have beer.

    This is the best description on Penner thus far.

    Well done

  44. Bruce says:

    I think the fact you’re comparing Penner to these two players as a defence says all you need to know about the guy.

    TRD: They’re comparable on the dollars front, with the important distinction that Bertuzzi (heaven forbid) and Guerin (been there, done that) were UFAs, Penner RFA. I personally think we got more for our $4 MM than either ANA or NYI did, both in ’08-09 and for sure down the road. Of course Oilers paid more than that, considering those draft picks. OTOH, we got a guy on the upside of his career already outperforming proven vets in his salary bracket who are on the downside of theirs.

    Another UFA winger who signed for Penner money was Jason Blake. Another who signed for $2 MM more cap hit was one Ryan Smyth. It’s expensive to find good help on the wings.

    The Penner situation is particularly interesting because he is a test case of the new CBA. Not too many RFAs that have ever been poached under any CBA, the other team usually matches (see: Sakic, Fedorov, Kesler, Vanek). So it is very difficult to find a true comparable.

    The best comparable I can come up with is Scott Hartnell, a strapping young LW who was signed to a six-year, $25.2 MM deal by Philly. He wasn’t a poached RFA, but in one sense he was a poached UFA. Holmgren bought a very narrow negotiating window with him and Timonen for a first-round draft pick, and clearly had to offer a full-market-value-and-then-some contract to lock him up.

    Hartnell is just six months older than Penner, but had earned his UFA status due to length of service. He now has 516 GP in the NHL, and this year had a pretty good season, 80 GP, 24-19-43. He has scored 22-25 goals three years running (inc. exactly 10 powerplay goals each year), and 33-48 points six years running. Is there a 30-goal season in his future? Maybe. 35? I highly doubt it.

    More to the game than boxcar numbers of course. Hartnell has a mean streak — and carte blanche to manifest it in Philly, judging from that career-high 159 PiM — that is a foreign concept to Penner, whose physical play is underrated by many but would never be described as “mean”. So the comparison is less than perfect, as all comparisons are. Anybody got a better one?

    Speaking of which, LT, Chuck Lefley scored 43 goals in 1975-76.

  45. Asiaoil says:

    By opening the offer sheet salvo – I believe it forced other GM’s to dip into their salary cap to resign their younger players to higher-than-before salaries… and hopefully make it a salary cap battle as much as a drafting battle.

    That’s the way I see it as well. Clearly the Oilers were at a disadvantage signing older UFA before last summer. Teams could lock up their young guys at a discount – then use those dollars to sign UFA. With the Vanek and Penner sheets though – teams have fewer dollars to use on UFA where they were at a comparative advantage. Plus elite RFA have shown they are willing to signing in EDM. So while EDM is still at a locational disadvantage in the UFA market – money still talks and teams like ANA will have fewer dollars to spend on UFA.

    That’s what fat boy in ANA is mad about – he lost a big advantage in the UFA market – but it was certainly not in the best interests of the Oilers to keep the previous system (which was based on collusion anyway) to keep going.

  46. Bruce says:

    That almost sounds like A Plan.

    Say it ain’t so, AO.

  47. Dennis says:

    Bruce: Yes, Burke made a mistake on the Bertuzzi deal and that’s not a surprise because he was also the guy that took the legs out from under the Canucks by believing in Cloutier. So, the guy’s not all-knowing.

    But he did know enough to fleece Lowe and he’s got a Cup.

    I think what worries me about Penner is that he might not have a lot of NHL years, but he’s got a lot of years knowing that he has to really watch how much he eats and how much he works out and it’s still never really caught on for him.

  48. Dennis says:

    Bruce: Burke once took the legs out from under the Dys by believing in Cloutier as well, so it’s not like he can’t make mistakes. And we know Murray laid a lot of good groundwork in Ana.

    But Burke knew enough to fleece Lowe and now he’s got a Cup.

    As for Penner, the guy doesn’t have a lot of years as an NHLer but he’s got a lot of years knowing that he really has to watch what he eats and how much he works out and right now, that really hasn’t grabbed him.

    Now that the pick didn’t turn out to be of a super high position, my biggest worry is about Penner’s conditioning.

  49. Bruce says:

    Bruce: Yes, Burke made a mistake on the Bertuzzi deal and that’s not a surprise because he was also the guy that took the legs out from under the Canucks by believing in Cloutier. So, the guy’s not all-knowing.

    Precisely my point. I’m sick and goddam tired of reading and hearing about what a fucking genius Brian Burke supposedly is. He’s made mistakes before, and he hasn’t always learned from them because he’s making some of the same mistakes now. He may think he knows it all, but he doesn’t. Careful what you wish for, Toronto.

    Besides, when I get a chance to slam Burke and Bertuzzi in the same post, with cause, that’s low-hanging fruit and I’m not going to pass it up. :) Both of ‘em had shitty years in 2007-08, and so did Pronger, all of which is cause for celebration as far as I’m concerned. Three of the biggest assholes in the league.

  50. rickibear says:

    Penner and Shrempf are going to screw a shoulder Fat camp.

  51. David says:

    Look; it makes no sense to judge Penner based on a year where he experienced the post-finals-run slump. We saw Shawn Horcoff go through it, and look how much better a year he had the following year. In fact, they actually had similar seasons; awful beginning, started to get it together towards the end but still inconsistent, but okay numbers overall.

    Let’s at least wait to see if Penner has that kind of rebound season before we jump on the contract. It didn’t blow up; so now, we just wait on seeing how good the player actually is.

  52. Bruce says:

    And furthermore …

    The assumption that Burke will strike gold with that #12 pick doesn’t exactly jive with his previous record of draft picks:

    1998: Bryan Allen (4th overall)
    1999: Danrik + Heniel (2nd + 3rd overall)
    2000: Nathan Smith (23rd)
    2001: R.J.Umberger (16th)
    2002: Kiril Koltsov (49th)
    2003: Ryan Kesler (23rd)

    2005: Bobby Ryan (2nd)
    2006: Mark Mitera (19th)
    2007: Logan MacMillan (19th)

    Not sure that Bryan Allen is anything special ten years on, despite his lofty draft position. It was preordained that some team was going to wind up with both Sedins, and at #2 and #3 Vancouver paid dearly enough.

    Since then, not too much. Smith was picked just ahead of Boyes, Ott, Justin Williams, Kronwall, and Nick Schultz. Umberger was a good pick and a bungled transaction, as Burke hardlined him to a contract stalemate. Kesler was picked immediately before Mike Richards.

    It’s too soon to know on some of the more recent ones, though Bobby Ryan looks like an overpay at 2nd overall while Mitera and MacMillan are hardly burning up the wires with “can’t miss” stories. Not that enviable a record all told.

  53. Asiaoil says:

    That almost sounds like A Plan.

    Say it ain’t so, AO.

    Well I won’t give Lowe that much credit :) GM after GM was making a monkey out of him last summer and laughing in his face – so I think he just snapped after the Nylander fiasco and blindly hit back without a whole lot of fore-thought. If this was a plan he would have long it long ago and with different players. Penner was not the best target – but he was probably the best one available after the Vanek gambit failed.

  54. Schitzo says:

    AO: Ignoring Vanek and Penner, who do you think was a prime RFA target?

  55. Asiaoil says:

    AO: Ignoring Vanek and Penner, who do you think was a prime RFA target?

    Gosh I’d have to think about it – but any team hard to the cap with unsigned players is vulnerable. Everyone gave Lou and NJD a big pass the last couple of years.

    In terms of players – I’ve always felt that young guys who have not been given a real shot for whatever reason or late bloomers are good targets and cheaper. A lot of your potential success in this depends on your scouting – but the cost for anything under $2 million is pretty modest (2nd round pick). Say Schremp was a RFA this season and he accepted a 2 year one-way offer sheet worth $2 million per season – would it be better to just take the 2nd round pick or give him the money – tough call and it really depends on how you think Schremp will develop.

  56. Schitzo says:

    AO: I misunderstood previously, I thought you meant there was some home-run RFA available (besides maybe Parise).

    I think you’re right to say it’s the Kesler-sized offer sheets that make the most sense

  57. rickibear says:

    This Penner RFA talk gets me back to what I noticed in January.
    When you look at the cap projected rfa compensation values based on 56M some interesting bariers are broken:

    860,840 – 1,304,304 3rd Rd
    1,304,304 – 2,608,669 2nd Rd
    2,608,669 – 3,912,912 1st & 3rd Rd
    3,912,912 – 5,217,217 1st 2nd 3rd

    The 2.6M barrier creates alot of potential for signing young guys whom are in the 3rd line with second line potential.The 3.9M Barrier creates a high offer for sure 2nd line guys.

    These new barriers creates the potential to get 2nd line depth far cheaper than the trade or UFA way. Especially if your a team with depth issues and limited prospect depth. You can get players with better talent than is availible in your organization that does not exceed market value.

    I mean wouldn’t NYI, Atlanta, Tornto, Columbus, Tampa, and LAK be wise to offer Jeff Carter 3.8M and R.J. Umberger 2.5M the same day. Whom do you think philly will choose if they even pick one.

    Offer Suter 3.5M and Erat 2.55M.

    Offers Paul Gaustad 2.5M and Steve Bernier 3M.

    Offer Wisniewski 3.25M and Byfuglien 2.5M

    Offer Wolski 3.8M and Svatos 2.55M.

    Offer Mezaros 3M and Vermette 2.5M.

    With that aproach It will not only put pressure on teams signing there players but to make sure you only have a max of one valuable one available.

    I mean you can predict this stuff a year in advance. I think it was October I said Carter was a sure target with he and Umberger comming up.

    You guys are all dwelling on something that is not going to change (Penner signing). You knew was going to happen with the Vanek offer being accepted by Buffalo.

    I mean one look at hockey numbers hours after the Vanek offer told you all you needed to know. It was obvious Dustin penner would be the next target if buffalo accepted.

    But in a single offer sequence you will have to pay market high.

    That is what Klowe did and Penner had his worst year he will have with Edmonton. Shooting % wise he will be 11% in his bad years and 18-19% in his good years with an everage of 14-15%. With 200 Shots/YR. That makes him a 22-38G goal guy with an average over this 5 year contract of 28G/YR. At 4.25M/YR that is fine with me.

    Anyone whom does not see that in his current stats and his live play on the ice is holding on to there opinion out of Ego.

  58. Traktor says:

    Lowe is an idiot for trading picks for a power forward who scored 29 goals in his first season?

    That fat fuck Burke traded Alexander Semin for a 31 year old Trever Linden.

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