Redden?

Wade Redden is going to be a free agent this summer. The Oilers have apparently tried to deal for him a time or two and since he’s from around here there’s probably going to be some speculation about him in an Oilers uniform.

Redden is likely to make less than his previous ($6.5M) contract as he appears to have levelled off as an NHL player over the last 24 months.

Here’s the Oilers current depth chart (based on salary) and their contract situation:

  1. Sheldon Souray (31) 6.25M, 5.5M, 4.5M, 4.5M UFA 2012
  2. Tom Gilbert (24) 3.5M, 3.5M, 5.5M, 5M, 3.5M, 3M UFA 2014
  3. Joni Pitkanen (24) RFA 2008
  4. Steve Staios (34) 2.9M, 2.8M, 2.2M, UFA 2011
  5. Denis Grebeshkov (24) 1.5M, RFA 2009
  6. Matt Greene (24) 1.25M RFA 2009
  7. Ladislav Smid (21) .952M, RFA 2009

If the Oilers brought in Redden it would almost certainly mean Joni Pitkanen would be heading out of town. Possibly for picks or an inexpensive scoring winger and picks. Is that a trade that makes Edmonton better?

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31 Responses to "Redden?"

  1. Black Dog says:

    I would say that would be sideways at best. We all know Joni’s flaws but he is far younger then Redden and had a pretty good record playing against tough opposition this season.

    Don’t know if it is injuries, his mother’s illness and passing or if he just needs a change of scenery but Redden has not looked good the past two seasons. He’s a gamble.

  2. GorillazXL says:

    ^I agree with what BlackDog says.

    I like Pitkanen, but I feel he’s a bit of a prima donna expecting alot in return for giving the Oilers potential.

    I still think the biggest problem the Oilers have and the worst acquisition Lowe has made upto this point is Sheldon Souray. His contract has seriously handicapped the Oilers for the next 4 years. Terrible signing, even if Souray was healthy. I like Souray but not for the dough the Oilers gave to get him to Edmonton (regardless if he took a pay cut from MTL’s offer).

    GXL

  3. Jfry says:

    what can we get for joni’s rights?

    i like this if redden comes in 2 years @ 4.5 and we trade torres/pit/greene for a shooter of some consequence.

    i think redden will be better around different leaders and away from the eastern media baggage

  4. doritogrande says:

    I don’t like it. We already have two 30-somethings on the down-side of their career (Souray, Staios). There’s no need to bring in a third. Sign Pitkanen for that 4.5M jfry suggested for two years. Make him earn his next contract. I’ll take 65 games of Pitkanen over 80 games of Redden for nothing more than that beautiful Scott Neidermayer skating stride.

  5. Lord Bob says:

    Unless Redden came with the hometown bonus to end all hometown bonuses or Pitkanen fetches an absolutely golden return in a trade (better than Smith + Lupul, anyway), Pitkanen for Redden is a loss for the Oilers.

    I don’t think Redden’s been as bad as some Ottawa fans have insisted lately, and if anybody could use the stereotypical “change of scenery” he’s the guy. But still, he’s no Norris candidate and the last thing we need is another overpaid second-pairing guy on this roster.

  6. Scarlett says:

    If Souray wasn’t an Oiler, Redden is a big possibility. But like others have said, we have two over 30 players already. I can’t see this happening even if Joni is a goner.

  7. RiversQ says:

    But like others have said, we have two over 30 players already.

    Not to pick on scarlett, but I’m seeing this way too much from several posters.

    How the fuck is this a bad thing?

    Someone please go take a huge reality check and look at the ages on Detroit’s roster.

    Souray sucks, but it ain’t because he’s over 30.

  8. Jonathan says:

    I like the idea of adding Redden to the roster. That said, it all depends on Pitkanen. If Pitkanen moves at the draft for futures and a forward (which isn’t outside the realm of possibility) absolutely bring Redden in.

    Our defense, as young and promising as it is, certainly won’t be hurt by the addition of a veteran defenceman, but unless Pitkanen is already on his way out, I’d rather see a solid stay-at-home type brought in than Redden.

  9. HBomb says:

    I’d be signing Pitkanen for 1 year for around four million bucks to give him a second chance to prove his worth (how the MSN guys seem to want to dump this guy, and Torres to an extent, yet the general feeling is to give Stoll another shot, despite the fact a one year deal puts him at UFA status and that Pitkanen/Torres are probably both bigger difference makers than Stoll, well, it’s beyond me).

    Sign him for one year, then if he delivers, go long-term with him next summer and attempt to dump Souray’s terrible deal to compensate for it. Let Redden go to Chicago or Columbus this summer.

    Redden’s good (whoever said he’s a 2nd pairing guy, I disagree with that statement), but I doubt he takes enough of a hometown discount to make it fly.

    And there’s nothing wrong with veteran d-men. Getting ones on nice value deals, such as 6 million over 3 years for a guy like Jan Hejda, that’s a key. I wish the Oilers had a guy like that….oh, wait….fuck.

  10. David says:

    This is a team who has a knack for finding very useful depth players. A lot of good third and fourth liners, a lot of good second and third pairing defencemen, and the odd top six forward. They have had less success finding truly high-end players in the draft. Gagner and Cogliano are certainly that, but is that a permanent trend? I’m just not convinced we should give up on a high-end offensive talent for more fairly useful, good-ish players/prospects.

  11. Ducey says:

    If we want to look at it “Sabermatically” with Desjardians’ numbers, we see Redden rated as Ottawa’s best defenceman at .29 The next best was Commodore at .02

    Pitkanen was at .20, with Grebs .74, Gilbert .50, and Roy 1.44 ahead of him.

    The notion that Pitkanen is a #1 continues to mistify me. The notion that he is better than Redden is not made out in the numbers either.

    The only way you can say Pitkanen is more valuable than Redden is based upon potential. I would accept that in 3 years that Pitkanen is likely to be better in the long run as Redden slows down, but Pitkanen ain’t going to be here in 3 years anyway.

    I love the idea of trading Pitkanen for assets and signing Redden for 3 years at a decent price (say $4 million cap hit a season).

    Oh and by the way, Redden (-.02)played harder minutes last year than Pitkanen (.03).

  12. HBomb says:

    I’m just not convinced we should give up on a high-end offensive talent for more fairly useful, good-ish players/prospects.

    Bob Stauffer suggested the Oilers would be happy to get draft picks as a return on Pitkanen getting an RFA offer. I’d want to vomit. Another player gone for no immediate help?

    The MSM (Stauffer, Brownlee, Barnes, etc.) need to pull their heads out of their asses and see that Pitkanen is a guy worth keeping. The only way you can justify a deal is if you’ve got an equal or better d-man coming the other way, and somehow, I don’t see that happening.

    Thankfully, I don’t think even Kevin Lowe is that stupid. However, he will be kicking himself someday if that Souray contract ends up preventing him from inking Pitkanen long-term.

  13. Ducey says:

    “Oh and by the way, Redden (-.02)played harder minutes last year than Pitkanen (.03).”

    I said this but now I am not so sure. Is a minus rating in quality of competition tough competition or weak competition?

  14. rickibear says:

    // Souray sucks//
    RiversQ:No he is often injured.

    He had 3G 7A in 25G over a year is 10G 22A.

    He is 1 of 4 Dmen to average (15G-25A) the last 4 years. He is 1 of 10 Dmen to be in one of the two groups (15G-25A) or (10G-30A).

    He is top five as a point option on the power play.

    He is one of the leagues best PK Dmen.

    And above the league average in EV GA/60.

    So RiversQ by your rating system:
    If Sheldon Souray sucks
    Then Nick Lidstrom is just shitty.
    And God would not make your hockey team.

    With the arrival of Petry, Chorney, Peckham in the next two years. Their development curve is ahead of greene.

    Staios is the only Canadian Dman to drop his trade value in the World Championship

    Pitkanen will be the odd man out in the next two years with Gilbert and Grebs performances at the world.

    Wade Reddon is 1 of 10 to average 10G 30A over the last four years.

    If we can get him for 4.5 over 2years I would be fine with that.

    We could move Greene and Pitkanen.

    Options Options.

  15. MetroGnome says:

    Redden’s declined the last few years. He’s a 2nd pairing defenseman on Ottawa, and he struggled at it this year. Volchenkov and Phillips see the tougher match-ups every night.

    Redden played soft comp (-0.02) and was scored on more than any other regular defender on the team at ES (3.06 GA/60). And he wasn’t much better the year before. And he tends to get injured. His PPP/60 rate was also really pedestrian this season (3.12), even though he shared the ice with Alfredsson, Heatley and Spezza.

    He looks like a bad bet to my eye.

  16. misfit says:

    To use a classic LT phrase, right now, this team’s arrows are pointing pretty much in the right direction. Trading Pitkanen and replacing him with Redden would be taking some of those arrows and turning them back the other way.

    First off, Redden will not sign with any team who isn’t going to give him a NTC. He’ll also need to be signed long term since he’s a UFA, and that’s just what happens with UFA Dmen of his calibre these days. And third, he’s in the prime of his career, and not likely to get any better over the next 4-6 years depending on how long he signs for.

    So why would a team like the Oilers, who’s core forwards are about 4 years from being in prime position to compete for the cup, replace a superior player in Pitkanen who’s got his best hockey ahead of him for Redden, who’s best hockey is now?

    If it didn’t ultimately mean the end of Pitkanen in Edmonton, then sure, but Pitkanen is both the better player now, and is at an age where he’s a better fit with the core of this team.

  17. rickibear says:

    If Gilbert and Grebs both end up as 10g 30A guys as Ofensive Dmen. Doesn’t Pitkanen go.

    I know some have said 1yr contract Pitkanen. Thus keeping him to see if he is better next year. Then he becomes too good to not sign or his trade value goes up. The problem is if all three continue to have 3.0GF/60 EV then you have to take the best GA/60 Ev and that is: Grebs 2.64; Gilbert 2.98; Pitkanen 3.10

    We only take Redden if he is on the cheap and we are trading Pitkanen and Stoll. Gilbert pairs with Souray, Redden with Staios, Grebs with Greene; Reddon Left point on first PP with Souray;
    Grebs Left point on second PP with Souray
    Redden
    GF/60 3.48; GA/60 3.08; Pts/60 .85
    Pitkanen
    GF/60 3.10; GA/60 3.10; Pts/60 .84
    He is at least a trade accross to Pitkanen and a free asset if signed.

  18. Jonathan says:

    Redden
    GF/60 3.48; GA/60 3.08; Pts/60 .85
    Pitkanen
    GF/60 3.10; GA/60 3.10; Pts/60 .84
    He is at least a trade accross to Pitkanen and a free asset if signed.

    As Ducey pointed out earlier, Pitkanen did that facing mildly harder competition, but Pitkanen did it with something else as well- less talented teammates (-.03 vs. .12). Desjardins QUALTEAM/QUALCOMP numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt, but logically Redden was playing for a superior team with superior players, so I’m content to trust them.

    When you add in that Pitkanen is on the up-swing and Redden on the down-swing, and this is a team that’s looks like a contender in 2-3 years, I think the choice is clear.

    Unless Pitkanen’s already on the way out in a trade.

  19. RiversQ says:

    I shouldn’t waste my time with this but I can’t help myself…

    rickibear said…
    // Souray sucks//
    RiversQ:No he is often injured.

    Uh, isn’t that a problem?

    It’s not new either. Souray has missed a lot of hockey in his time. He’s played 10 NHL seasons and is only at 532 GP. That’ll probably always be a problem.

    He had 3G 7A in 25G over a year is 10G 22A.
    He played 25 games. Are the Oilers getting their money’s worth there?

    He is 1 of 4 Dmen to average (15G-25A) the last 4 years.
    He’s also a massive minus over this time. He won Montreal’s green jacket in 06/07 while playing 2nd or 3rd pairing minutes at ES.

    He is 1 of 10 Dmen to be in one of the two groups (15G-25A) or (10G-30A).
    I’ll take your word for that. It doesn’t really mean much to me.

    He is top five as a point option on the power play.
    Is he really? Does that one year buy you that kind of cred? (he’s been sub-par every year except 06/07. His 03/04 wasn’t too bad, but just 219 PP min means he wasn’t a top flight option)

    I know I’d take Gonchar, Lidstrom, Pronger, Zubov, Markov, Phaneuf and a healthy list of forwards like Richards, Whitney, Alfredsson, Kovalchuk, or Ovechkin over him at the point. Hell, even Brian Campbell has an equivalent track record.

    Souray’s probably a top 20 option on the point. I’d agree with that.

    He is one of the leagues best PK Dmen.

    Wow. Did MacT say this once and now you believe it?

    I don’t think there’s any data to back that up. If Souray really was one of the best in the league, why was he a 2nd pairing option in his last two years in MTL? And when Rivet left, why did Komisarek just leapfrog Souray in PK TOI anyway?

    And above the league average in EV GA/60.

    In just 25 games.

    I suppose this would be impressive if he was capable of generating any offense at ES, but he’s not. He finished -5 this year at 5V5 anyway and was a whopping -29 in MTL a year before. (-3.43 GA/60 that year too)

    So RiversQ by your rating system:
    If Sheldon Souray sucks
    Then Nick Lidstrom is just shitty.
    And God would not make your hockey team.

    You must be off your meds.

  20. Bendelson says:

    Redden is an excellent option if signing him includes a Pitkanen trade for Frolov…

  21. Dennis says:

    Lowe was actually talking some sense on 25 the other day when he mentioned it looks like they’ll sign him for one year and then talk to him again the following summer.

    Metro did an excellent job laying out all the reasons why it’s a bad idea to bet on Redden and I’d just as soon have another year’s look at Pitkanen just to see what he can bring.

    I think we definetly need him to help us move the puck at EV and he’s still gonna have trade value next summer no matter what. Plus, it provides another year’s security blanket for the 77.37 duo.

  22. rickibear says:

    Suck is a way of describing play. Not durability. They are clearly two diffrent things. I have as much problem with Souray’s durability as I would have had keeping a broken down Ryan Smyth.

    //He played 25 games. Are the Oilers getting their money’s worth there?//

    Were you a kid that got bored of your toys after 5 min and broke them or threw them away.
    I let you know if we are getting our money’s worth after the next two seasons.

    //He’s also a massive minus over this time. He won Montreal’s green jacket in 06/07 while playing 2nd or 3rd pairing minutes at ES.//

    He was 3.43GA/60 for Montreal. When they announced his signing this was my biggest fear and I said god no. He was 2.64GA/60 on our team. Thanks for the supporting point that he is better suited for our Dmen system.

    //He is 1 of 10 Dmen to be in one of the two groups (15G-25A) or (10G-30A). I’ll take your word for that. It doesn’t really mean much to me.//

    Translation:(He is in an elite group with these facts and I can not find an arguement to refute it. So I will pretend it does not exist.)
    Yeah cause goals have nothing to do with winning.

    //I know I’d take Gonchar, Lidstrom, Pronger, Zubov, Markov, Phaneuf and a healthy list of forwards like Richards, Whitney, Alfredsson, Kovalchuk, or Ovechkin over him at the point. Hell, even Brian Campbell has an equivalent track record.//

    Nice list you have pretty much hit anyone that can challenge him. You are missing McCabe, Chara, and Neidermeyer. It is clear he affects PP production with an effective point shot. But is effective in a system QB’D from the side boards.( ie. Kovalev and Hemsky)
    Player ON/60
    Souray: 5.15
    Phanuef 5.83
    Ovechkin 6.34
    Pronger 5.13
    Gonchar 6.47
    Lidstrom 6.90
    Zubov 6.17
    Chara 6.66
    Mcabe 5.27
    Neidermeyer 7.61

    Oops! I guess its 1 of 10 best options when he is playing with a hurt shoulder. If he is healthy he is 1 of 5. I would still take his shot over any of them. I trust the 8.34ON/60 from last year as much as this years #.

    //Wow. Did MacT say this once and now you believe it//

    Sourays +/- on/60 PK
    top 10 Dmen 06/07 -3.10
    top 20 Dmen 07/08 -3.68
    For Dmen with 3:00 PK TOI he was top 5 both years.

    //If Souray really was one of the best in the league, why was he a 2nd pairing option in his last two years in MTL?//

    Rivet and Markov were also in the top 5 in 06/07.

    Your pretty sneaky when it comes to providing examples. You write as thou you are quickly pulling out examples and therefore there must be more. In reality you throw out all the options that are availble and even thou the facts support the premise that was presented. You use this style to dismiss. From now on when I say top or one of the best and you provide five quick examples; I will know that is all you can provide. I will now question everthing you write.

    //I suppose this would be impressive if he was capable of generating any offense at ES, but he’s not.//
    He generates .76PT/60 which is 75of 230 for dmen with 10:00 EV TOI.
    Gilbert .98, Grebs.84, and Pitkanen .84 are slightly better so he will yeild offensively to these three. 75/230 I would say that is capable EV.
    You are sneaky! Throw out a statement that is clearly not true.
    What is below average is GF/60 which is 1.76 GF/60 EV is 210/230.

    With his point production this is more an inditement of his linemates. Oh look they are 210th best of 230.

    //You must be off your meds.//

    I do not require medication. I love my son and have primary custody. I go to a job that varies from day to day and requires intellectal problem solving everyday. (spell check provided) In other words I love it and it is not boring. Plus it pays real well.
    My life is quite great.

    Since you brought up meds, You must know them first hand. Perhaps you should up your dosage. Don’t be sneaky about it.

  23. rickibear says:

    If there is any Dman I would like, if we unloaded Pitkanen at the draft, it would be Marek Malik.

  24. Bruce says:

    Desjardins QUALTEAM/QUALCOMP numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt, but logically Redden was playing for a superior team with superior players, so I’m content to trust them.

    It’s instructive to take both Desjardins QUAL numbers and combine them into what Jonathan and I both call “Quality of Matchup”. Here are those numbers for the Oilers defence this year:

    Defenceman: QT / QC = QM
    ———————————–
    Greene +0.01/-0.08 = +0.09
    Grebeshkov: +0.03/-0.01 = +0.04
    Gilbert: +0.02/+0.05 = -0.03
    Pitkanen: -0.03/+0.03 = -0.06
    Smid: -0.12/+0.01 = -0.13
    Staios: -0.11/+0.05 = -0.16
    Souray: -0.15/+0.05 = -0.20

    … suggesting Greene got the easiest matchups and Staios and Souray the toughest. Now here’s the same numbers for the Ottawa blueline:

    Defenceman: QT / QC = QM
    ———————————–
    Redden: +0.12 / -0.02 = +0.14
    Meszaros: +0.02 / -0.00 = +0.02
    Richardson: -0.07 / -0.09 = +0.02
    Commodore: -0.05 / +0.01 = -0.06
    Phillips: +0.02 / +0.12 = -0.10
    Volchenkov: -0.05 / +0.11 = -0.16

    … suggesting Redden got by far the easiest matchups, and Phillips and Volchenkov the toughest. Which certainly matches with what I saw, Wade got the cherry minutes with ASH line while 4 and 24 were the shutdown pair. One would expect Redden to have a vastly superior 5v5 +/- under those circumstances, but he really didn’t: BtN has Redden at +9, Phillips at +6, Volchenkov at +5, Meszaros +4, Richardson +1.

    Redden also had mediocre PP numbers. Despite playing first unit, BtN had his rating (essentially, PP+ ON v. OFF) at -0.19. Given the staggering ratings of his first unit partners — Spezza +4.62, Alfredsson +4.52, Heatley +4.50 — it’s hard to reconcile how Redden’s numbers are so mediocre, but it’s easy to conclude he’s hardly the guy driving the PP.

    I’m in the camp that thinks Redden is overrated. I’ve never liked his performance in the clutch. I swear I saw fear in his eyes in Game 1 of the SCF in Anaheim last year, and he certainly played that way. His playoff numbers are interesting, in that his career GPG and PPG are almost the same in the playoffs as regular season, but his +/- goes south; +159 in the regular season, -13 in the playoffs. That’s +0.19/GP in the regular season, -0.13 in the postseason, a difference of a third of a goal per game.

    His last couple of years were particularly tough. It’s not impossible he turns it around in a new environment, but I’d rather that wasn’t Edmonton. I don’t really see him a $6 MM man to say the least.

  25. Oiler Mag says:

    Statistics, like toys, being flung out of the proverbial pram.

  26. usually frustrated caps fan says:

    I’m a caps fan but I can tell you after watching him 4 times each of the last 2 years Redden is a solid player and a good pickup for any team at a fair price. I don’t really know Pitkanen thanks to the current schedule alignments so can’t comment on the overall value of the deal for the Oilers.
    LETS GO CAPS!!!!

  27. gary says:

    maybe Lowe can get Gainey to take Souray back? :P

  28. RiversQ says:

    rickibear said…
    Suck is a way of describing play. Not durability. They are clearly two diffrent things. I have as much problem with Souray’s durability as I would have had keeping a broken down Ryan Smyth.

    Personally, I’d take Smyth since he has years of demonstrated ability at ES and on the PP and get hurt less than Souray does.

    Were you a kid that got bored of your toys after 5 min and broke them or threw them away.

    Was that a question? Is it relevant to the discussion at hand?

    FWIW, the answer is no, I always maximized value out of my toys. ;)

    I let you know if we are getting our money’s worth after the next two seasons.
    Oh thanks guy. Keep in mind he already shitcanned one full year’s
    salary when you get around to doing that.

    He was 3.43GA/60 for Montreal. When they announced his signing this was my biggest fear and I said god no. He was 2.64GA/60 on our team. Thanks for the supporting point that he is better suited for our Dmen system.

    This is just batshit crazy. He plays 25 games for the Oilers and now he’s better suited for our defense? You could write for the journal man, you really could. this is HOF material here.

    Yeah cause goals have nothing to do with winning.

    Goal differential has everything to do with winning. Souray doesn’t provide that at ES and hasn’t in a long time.

    Nice list you have pretty much hit anyone that can challenge him. You are missing McCabe, Chara, and Neidermeyer.

    First you tell me Souray is top 5 in the league and now you’re adding guys to my fucking list?!?!?

    You can’t make this stuff up.

    It is clear he affects PP production with an effective point shot.

    Oh there’s no question he has a hard shot, but the supporting evidence for positive results amounts to one season.

    In 06/07 with MTL he did extremely well. However, he had an insanely high shooting percentage for a dman. One that he has NEVER replicated in any of his other seasons including the small 25 game sample in Edmonton. He shot 11.6% that year, but his career average in the NHL is just over 6%

    This year MTL didn’t have him and didn’t miss a beat on the PP. Meanwhile here in Edmonton, his PP numbers are fairly pedestrian. What does that tell you?

    But is effective in a system QB’D from the side boards.( ie. Kovalev and Hemsky)

    I really don’t see how this conclusion can be made. Hemsky was on his sideboards this year and he mustered just 2.7 PPP/hr. Kovalev was on his sideboards in 05/06 too and Souray had just 3.8 PPP/hr that year.

    Player ON/60
    Souray: 5.15
    Phanuef 5.83
    Ovechkin 6.34
    Pronger 5.13
    Gonchar 6.47
    Lidstrom 6.90
    Zubov 6.17
    Chara 6.66
    Mcabe 5.27
    Neidermeyer 7.61

    And don’t forget Campbell. Might as well throw Rivet out there too. And Hamrlik. And Redden. Oh shit there’s like 20 dmen that did better by the measure you chose, in which Souray only had 25 games to contribute.

    Also you might want to remember that forwards play the point in this league too, which makes Souray’s PP production even less special. Like I said before, he’s maybe top 20 in the league and I’m not sure I’d give him that much credit until he proves he can put up some numbers consistently.

    I trust the 8.34ON/60 from last year as much as this years #.

    And what about all those other years? At least the ones where he wasn’t hurt? His numbers were even worse than his little stint in 07/08.

    Sourays +/- on/60 PK
    top 10 Dmen 06/07 -3.10
    top 20 Dmen 07/08 -3.68
    For Dmen with 3:00 PK TOI he was top 5 both years.

    Now this is a major pet peeve for me. There’s only one situation where GD fails to pass the smell test and it’s on the PK. I have a few theories as to why that is and I think it has a lot to do with Vic’s situational faceoff stuff.

    Let me put it this way… If PK GD is a good evaluator of PK performance then the majority of NHL head coaches are running their benches really poorly. I doubt that very much.

    Rivet and Markov were also in the top 5 in 06/07.

    I just spent five min checking this. You’re either lying or lazy. Here is an incomplete list of dmen with better GA/hr at 5V4 than those two that year (06/07):

    R. Jones, K. Johnsson, W. Redden, M. Ohlund, N. Wallin, P. Boucher, S. Hannan, T. Daley, and S. O’Donnell.

    I’ll stop there. They all played at least 150min TOI at 5V4 as well. There’s probably another 10-15 dmen with better numbers in 06/07 than Souray by this measure as well.

    So again, even by your criteria (as flawed as it may be) there isn’t much evidence that Souray is “one of the best PK dmen in the league.”

    Your pretty sneaky when it comes to providing examples.

    And you’re just lying here.

    You write as thou you are quickly pulling out examples and therefore there must be more.

    Yeah I do. I have been guilty of assuming there are more. However, you’re going to have to admit that I keep finding more for you everytime, so I haven’t been wrong with this assumption yet.

    In reality you throw out all the options that are availble and even thou the facts support the premise that was presented.

    See above.

    You use this style to dismiss. From now on when I say top or one of the best and you provide five quick examples; I will know that is all you can provide. I will now question everthing you write.

    Good. And ditto.

    He generates .76PT/60 which is 75of 230 for dmen with 10:00 EV TOI. Gilbert .98, Grebs.84, and Pitkanen .84 are slightly better so he will yeild offensively to these three. 75/230 I would say that is capable EV.

    Oh he’s done alright with the points for a dman, but there’s a reason why his GD is so poor at ES. As you pointed out he wasn’t that bad in terms of EV GA/hr, so why was he negative anyway? The answer is that there weren’t many GF when he was out there.

    You are sneaky! Throw out a statement that is clearly not true.
    What is below average is GF/60 which is 1.76 GF/60 EV is 210/230.

    This doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to be frank.

    Souray ranked 9th among dmen on his own team by this measure.

    With his point production this is more an inditement of his linemates. Oh look they are 210th best of 230.

    Again a ridiculous conclusion.

    I do not require medication. I love my son and have primary custody.

    That’s wonderful. Not everyone is so lucky.

    I go to a job that varies from day to day and requires intellectal problem solving everyday. (spell check provided)

    I seriously hope that your reckless and illogical arguments are not an example of your approach at work.

    Oh, and keep using that spell check.

  29. rickibear says:

    //Was that a question? Is it relevant to the discussion at
    hand? //

    Just needed an answer to your character. Your answer states you expect results every year. Where as I expect a cyclical performance review. With this diference in philosophy there is a diffrence in view of what is results.

    //Oh thanks guy. Keep in mind he already shitcanned one full year’s
    salary when you get around to doing that.//

    From this veiw you must be really pissed at Horcoffs contract. He did not deliver in his first year of the contract and Shit canned 1/2 a year in his second. Yes Souray was out for 70% of the season.

    //This is just batshit crazy. He plays 25 games for the Oilers and now he’s better suited for our defense?//

    Sarcasm my man. But explain such a dramatic decline in EV GA/60. His line mates in 06/07 were Rivet, Ryder, Koivu, and Kovalev.
    07/08 +/- for this group:
    Rivet +1, Ryder -3, Koivu -4, Kovalev +15.

    //Goal differential has everything to do with winning. Souray doesn’t provide that at ES and hasn’t in a long time.//

    I have to yeild this. Though I have believed that the proper EV role for Souray is left side paired with right side offensive Dman like Gilbert.

    //First you tell me Souray is top 5 in the league and now you’re adding guys to my fucking list?!?!?//

    Oops! I guess its 1 of 10 best options when he is playing. None of them have his shot. This is subjective. The question is. Did teams modify there PK to eliminate Sourays shot. Yes. Did we make use of it properly? Not at the start of the year. So yes a 25 game sample is not fair in determining his value to our PP. I still can only think of Three point guys that would have his velocity and controlled shot at the point.

    They score 6.29GF/60 when he is on the point. Half the time he played with a fucked shoulder. Intresting to see when he is healthy for a full year if he goes back up to 8.20 GF/60.

    //Now this is a major pet peeve for me. There’s only one situation where GD fails to pass the smell test and it’s on the PK. I have a few theories as to why that is and I think it has a lot to do with Vic’s situational faceoff stuff.//

    I wait for you to publish this on IOF. But for now, you follow what you know.

    //For Dmen with 3:00 PK TOI he was top 5 both years. Rivet and Markov were also in the top 5 in 06/07.//
    //I just spent five min checking this. You’re either lying or lazy.
    ….And you’re just lying here.//

    The list of Dmen with TOI over 3:00 ahead of Souray:
    Player MIN TOI GA/60
    Tjarnquist 134.4 3:50 -2.23
    Johnsson 268.0 3:33 -2.24
    Ohland 263.1 3:29 -2.74
    Malik 196.3 3:06 -2.75
    Gauthier 190.3 4:36 -2.84
    Markov 262.7 3:37 -2.97
    Souray 232.1 3:01 -3.10

    I made a slight mistake I only looked at players with over 200MIN thinking 82 games. But Tjanquist, Malik, And Gauthier did not play full seasons. So he was top 7. I will assume you did not see the TOI
    value fro the Dmen you provided.

    //The answer is that there weren’t many GF when he was out there.//
    Linemates, Linemates, Linemates.

    //This doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to be frank.//
    I meant to say:
    You throw out a statement that is clearly not true.
    If you are the 75th best EV point generating Dman out of 230Dmen. Does this seam like a Dman that is not capable of generating offence.

    //Again a ridiculous conclusion.//
    Throw 5vs5 in excel GF/60 and Quality of Teamates are both 210 out of 230. Which says to me you believe both stats are flawed. You may be correct and Corsi maybe what I should follow. But, You know what you know.

    //I seriously hope that your reckless and illogical arguments are not an example of your approach at work.//
    If the power ever goes out in Alberta you will know.

    I am and allways will be of the belief in ranking players by: top 10, top 30, top 60, and top 90. Then comparing the groups salaries to see if we are getting value from the player. It is also obvious that the league pays for specific skills. Simple but effective technique. It is also why my belief in Souray’s value is different than yours.

    This converstion though not resolved was character enlightning and helpful. But it is done.

    Have a good night #2 of 5 in the IOF Klowe Conspiracy Club.

  30. GSC says:

    No thanks to Redden. His game is regressing and he was particularly poor during the playoffs for the Sens. Besides, there’s enough money and roster slots tied into veteran defencemen already (Souray and Staios). I’d rather have a younger defenceman with a higher ceiling like Pitkanen than an aging defenceman who has maxed-out his potential like Redden.

    If Wade were better in his own zone and would come at a lower price tag, I’d be all for it. But the salary he commands (well over $4 MIL) and his worsening play isn’t what this team needs, not at all. If only Volchenkov or Phillips were available instead…

  31. Jonathan says:

    It is clear he affects PP production with an effective point shot.

    Pardon the interruption here but last month I did a post on the Oilers powerplay personnel for 2007-08. Admittedly, this suffers from being only a single year, particularly for Souray, who played in such a small sampling of games.

    Anyway, among Oiler defensemen (including Stoll, as he plays the point) Souray ranked 3rd in GFON/60, GAON/60 and +/- ON/60. Looking at TOI, it appears Stoll got Sourays spot when Souray was injured, and looking at the numbers I cannot see a difference in terms of effectiveness.

    In other words, certainly Souray is a decent point man, but I would argue that he does not represent a significant powerplay upgrade on Jarret Stoll. As you were, gentlemen.

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