What Are These Prospects Worth At the Draft?

One of the fringe forwards to watch this summer will be Jean-Francois Jacques. With the LW depth chart full (Penner, Nilsson, Torres, Moreau) and possibly even more crowded by draft day (Glencross) the possibility exists that Jacques might be headed out of town for a draft choice.

But only if he’s healthy.

A May 1st item from Jim Matheson mentioned he was “on the mend” from a disc problem in his back. If he is well enough to trade, does he have enough of a track record of success to get something useful in return? What about Schremp? Pouliot?

First, let’s put together an approximate depth chart and include Glencross just for fun:

  1. Hemsky
  2. Horcoff
  3. Penner
  4. Gagner
  5. Cogliano
  6. Nilsson
  7. Pisani
  8. Stoll
  9. Brodziak
  10. Glencross
  11. Torres
  12. Moreau
  13. Stortini
  14. Pouliot
  15. Schremp
  16. Jacques

Let’s take 14-16 one at a time.

JF JACQUES TRADE VALUE
  1. The best “trade comp” I found for Jacques in the last 2 seasons was the deal from June of last year that sent Chris Thorburn from Pittsburgh to Atlanta for a 3rd rd pick (2007) that became D Robert Bortuzzo at the draft. It was the 78th overall selection.
  2. Thorburn is a big winger who can play a physical game and scores goals when in the AHL. He’s carved out a role that would fit JF Jacques pretty well.
  3. Considering Jacques injury problems, the fact that he will be exposed to waivers and the impressive quality and depth of this draft I’d peg Jacques value as something south of slot #100. Fair?

ROB SCHREMP TRADE VALUE

  1. The best “comp trade” for Schremp is the Pavol Demitra trade from June 2006: Los Angeles Kings traded Pavol Demitra to the Minnesota Wild for Patrick O’Sullivan and a 1st round selection in 2006. The pick became Trevor Lewis.
  2. O’Sullivan is a better pro prospect than Schremp and has been since they turned pro in 2005(O’Sullivan) and 2006(Schremp). O’Sullivan’s AHL points-per-game (at at 20 for each) number trumps Schremp (1.19 to .768) and he’s now pretty much an established NHL player (22-31-53) at age 23.
  3. Considering Schremp is a lesser prospect than O’Sullivan and that a first round pick was also included in the package for Demitra, I’d say the Oilers could deal Schremp and the pick at 22 for a slightly less impressive veteran player than Demitra (who is two years from UFA status). We also must include in this scenario the idea that the Wild may have been willing to overpay somewhat because Demitra was their target.
  4. Considering all the numbers and equations in point #3, and because of the depth of this draft, and because he is unproven and does have issues, I’d peg Schremp’s trade value in terms of draft slot at about #50. Fair?

MARC POULIOT TRADE VALUE

  1. The best “comp trade” I could find is a trade involving Edmonton from Jun 26, 2004: Edmonton Oilers traded Jason Chimera and a 3rd round selection in 2004 to the Phoenix Coyotes for a 2nd (#57, Geoff Paukovich) and 4th round selections in 2004.
  2. Chimera was more established at the NHL level at the time of his trade (he’d played 130 games and Pouliot has played 78 at this time) but Chimera had also played 5 pro seasons to Pouliot’s 3 pro season. At the age Pouliot was last fall (22), Jason Chimera had played 4 NHL games compared to Pouliot’s 54.
  3. Considering all of these elements involved I’d peg Pouliot’s value in terms of draft slot at #45. Fair?

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25 Responses to "What Are These Prospects Worth At the Draft?"

  1. Jonathan says:

    Given those trade values, which I agree with, the only guy I’d deal would be Schremp. Jacques has no value, and Pouliot is almost certainly going to be a better player than the #45 guy will be in 2-3 years, when the Oilers are looking to contend.

  2. Bruce says:

    I’d say the Oilers could deal Schremp and the pick at 22 for a slightly less impressive veteran player than Demitra (who is two years from UFA status).

    LT: … who was two years from UFA status at the time of the deal?

    We also must include in this scenario the idea that the Wild may have been willing to overpay somewhat because Demitra was their target.

    I’ll say. This was one of the strangest trades of the cap era. Kings signed Demitra as a UFA for three years, kept him for one, and dumped the last two years of his contract for a real hot prospect and a first-rounder? If the Wild wanted Demitra that badly, they should’ve signed him when he was “freely” available in 2005. Else they should’ve signed an equivalent UFA in 2006, except as you say they clearly targeted Demitra.

    The Kings haven’t done much right in recent years (e.g. earlier in 2006, Tambellini and Grebeshkov for Parrish and Sopel), but this one sure worked out. Within a year Demitra’s contract went from market value to such an underpay that he was worth two significant young assets? As it worked out, the Kings got the best year of the three from Demitra, whom the Wild will allow to walk this summer after a 15-goal campaign.

    Are there any better comparables to Schremp where the prospect was traded by himself, no draft picks or other baggage included to muddy the waters? It seems like most often these young bucks are part of a package if they get moved at all.

    Can we consider Corey Perry for Mike Comrie as a comparable? ;-)

  3. Jfry says:

    i think your valuation of sugar tits is a little light.

    and if it is true…why bother trading him at all?

    trading a first and 250k for a late second three years later is bad business. i don’t see the issue with having him in the ahl for another year or two…the cost to us to keep him is minimal…next year will be another new coach for him, again.

    i just don’t understand throwing him into deals when he’s one injury from possibly being with the team next year.

    if hemsky or gags gets hurt next year, who do you call up? i would like to have suga tits available.

    o’sullivan wasn’t oached by chip and chase bucky….i think the percentage of team’s points would be equivalent with RS…much closer than PPG.

    anyhow, i don’t get why we have a hard on to trade our best offensive minor league player..when all things considered he did everything right this year and apparently this summer as well. none of the returns seem worth it to date.

  4. Jfry says:

    do mihknov’s rights have any value? bag of pucks?

  5. Lowetide says:

    jfry: Whenever we talk about Schremp the point you’re making comes up and I agree. They’ve invested time and money in the guy, might as well get 500 at-bats.

    Problem is where do you bat him in the lineup and who do you sit?

    I do think they’ll keep Schremp, though. There’s no waiver problem with him this fall.

    Bruce: I thought Demitra was two years from UFA when they made that deal. Is that incorrect?

  6. Lowetide says:

    Re: Mikhnov. He had a good season and a solid playoff (8 pts in 16gp last I looked). However, if my math is right he’s one summer from UFA status so a team can just wait one year to get him for free.

    The Puck Stops Here wrote about Mikhnov and the Oilers about one year ago and I think he was right all down the line of the guy.

  7. Traktor says:

    I think Schremp’s average value might be 50th overall but like in any draft there will be a team that will be high on him and take a risk on him. Most GM’s will offer in the 50th range but I can see 1 or 2 offering in the 25-35 range.

    He still has as much potential as any kid you’re going to draft in the 30th range and he is NHL ready.

    I don’t think Pouliot really has more value than Schremp either. He is a better bet to make the NHL than Schremp but he doesn’t have the upside either. Schremp is a guy that a team would play in the top 6 if they aquired him, Pouliot would probably be a 3rd or 4th line pick up. Do you send off your 2nd round pick to for Pouliot or do you keep it and sign a scrub like Reasoner to play on the 4th line. I would say Pouliot’s value is closer to JFJ than Schremp.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Traktor: Respectfully disagree. Unlike both Schremp and Jacques, Pouliot has had a period of sustain at the NHL level where he was doing useful things.

    A team dealing for Schremp and planning on using him in the top 6 would have to be considered a very weak club in terms of their top 2lines. I can’t think of an NHL team where he would be a lock for top 6.

    A team looking for a guy who might help offensively and costs under a million? I bet there are plenty of those teams and they might bite on Schremp with an eye to him eventually filling a top 6 role.

    But an automatic top 6 role this fall with an NHL club? I can’t see it.

  9. Traktor says:

    LT: What I’m saying, IMO, is that top 6 potential might be worth more than a proven 4th line player.

    Pouliot has proven that can can skate at the NHL level and hold his own but not much more. Yes Schremp hasn’t proved that he belongs in the NHL (some would say his AHL numbers prove otherwsise) but he hasn’t proved that he doesn’t belong either.

    To me saying Pouliot has more value because he’s “had a period of sustain at the NHL level where he was doing useful things” is like saying David Perron has more value than say JVR because Perron has proven he belongs in the NHL.

    I don’t see why a team would trade for Schremp unless they plan on playing him in the top 6. He might not finish the season in the top 6 but any team that trades for him will start him in the top 6 or they wouldn’t trade for him in the first place.

    He might not be a lock for the top 6 next year but it’s a lock that any team that trades for him also believes that he can play in the top 6 in the NHL and will be given that opportunity next year. If he can hold down that spot is another question.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Traktor: I see your point. Let’s look at it another way. Let’s say Ted Nolan and Garth Snow are talking right now on Long Island and looking to add to their top 6 for next season.

    They’ve got Comrie and Guerin for sure and Trent Hunter who can score some goals plus they’ve got a lot of UFA’s like Satan, Fedetenko and Vasicek who may or may not return.

    Let’s say for the sake of argument they sign Vasicek and spend the Satan dollars on Sean Averyand then they leave on slot for a young player.

    That depth chart might look like this (C-LW-RW):

    Comrie-Avery-Guerin
    Vasicek-????-Hunter

    Now I’m just using that as an example. Okay, the Islanders have a guy like Jeff Tambellini who is basically Rob Schremp on the Island except that he’s a better overall player than Schremp. They also have a stud prospect in Kyle Okposo and another guy they like a lot named Blake Comeau.

    So anyway, they decided that Schremp is a better top 6 option than Tambellini (certainly possible based on some of the things they’ve done to Tambellini in the last couple of seasons) abd they decide that Okposo needs to come along slowly and might start next season in the AHL (I think it unlikely).

    Then you’ve still got Comeau. That’s the problem. A team is unlikely to view Schremp as so much better (in terms of option) than what they have that they’ll be willing to deal a high pick (say a first rounder).

    I agree the Oilers may be better off keeping Schremp if the return is only 50 but that’s what I think they’d get for a 2008 draft pick.

    On the other hand, if they can get the 25th pick in a deep draft for him then that would be a trade Kevin Lowe should make imo.

  11. Traktor says:

    Lt: Bill Guerin turns 38 in September and scored 44 points last year. Comrie lead the Islanders in scoring with less than 50 points. Trent Hunter is a good 3rd line player (like Torres) but if he is playing in your top 6 it means your team sucks. If there is one team that Schremp could play for it would be the Islanders.

    I always liked Comeau but he isn’t a top 6 forward. It’s kinda like when people got mad that MacTavish called up Pouliot instead of Schremp when Moreau went down. Different players, different roles. I think Comeau makes a guy like Richard Park expendable but I don’t think he factors much in if the Islanders would or wouldn’t be interested in Schremp.

    Is Josef Vasicek really a better option than Schremp? 35 points last year.

    I also think any team that traded for him would put him back at center. The Islanders center pipeline might be the worst in all the NHL. It’s that bad. Not much better on the big club going into next season either. The scary thing is Schremp could possibly lead the Islanders in points next year. They’re that bad. Take into account that the Islanders have less chance of signing impact UFA’s than Edmonton and have zero hope in the pipeline besides Tambo and I have to think Garth will be giving Lowe a call looking to bring Schremp back home.

  12. Traktor says:

    I know what you’re saying though, LT. Most teams have kids with big potential so why move assets for Schremp instead of playing them in his place.

    Being the GM of a hockey club is a short life. If you strike out on UFA’s and have nothing in the pipeline and you have to win what do you do? What good is a 1st round pick if you won’t be around by the time that he is playing in the NHL?

  13. Jonathan says:

    I don’t understand the line of reasoning that Schremp has a better upside than Pouliot at the NHL level. Comparing their first two pro seasons (05-06, 06-07 and 06-07, 07-08) we see PPG of .692 and .939 for Pouliot vs. .768 and .974 for Schremp with NHL time thrown in for Pouliot. When you toss in that Pouliot’s GPG average over those two seasons was slightly superior to Schremp’s (.296 vs. .272) I have a really hard time seeing much seperation between them offensively.

    The only real seperation between those two years of Pouliot and the same two years of Schremp is NHL time, where Pouliot played 54 games to Schremp’s 8. So, in addition to being a safer bet to stick at some level in the NHL, and the fact that the difference in offensive upside is negligible, I think a GM would be completely wrong to value Schremp over Pouliot.

  14. Traktor says:

    Jonathan: How much more value would JFJ have if he never played an NHL game? Sometimes playing in the NHL and not producing makes you a worse prospect than someone who is producing in the AHL. Sure Schremp and Pouliot have simular numbers in the AHL but Pouliot has proven thus far that his AHL game doesn’t traslate to the NHL much like JFJ has also shown.

    I’m not so certain that Pouliot’s 78 career NHL games under his belt help his case.

    I think enough has been seen of Pouliot at the NHL level to suggest that he will never be a top 6 player. I’m not so certain the same can be said about Schremp.

    Maybe that’s why Lowe/MacTavish won’t play in in the NHL – to protect his value.

  15. Ducey says:

    Some GM might value Schremp as a guy who could juice up the PP by playing the sidewall and score some shootout goals. He might not have to be a top 6 on a team if they need this bad enough.

    A team with little depth could go with a fourth line of scrapper, PK specialist and Schremp.

    However, I think he is most likely to get moved not by himself but as part of a larger deal.

    Just getting rid of him this year so you have something to do in the second round on June 20 doesn’t make a lot of sense. He serves as depth.

    However, I think Lowe and MacT have given up on him ever playing “Oilers Hockey”. I think if they never plan to use him, even in an emergency, they might as well dump him for what they can get.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Ducey: How many rookies help a powerplay? I don’t think it’s many. To me Schremp is a guy the Oilers have probably already decided on.

    I don’t know:

    1. If they’re keeping him
    2. If they do, where he’ll play.

    But that MacT quote keeps ringing in my ears the same way his “apparently some in the organization think he’s a player” quote impacted Jani Rita.

    The die is cast.

  17. GB says:

    Years ago, I heard a hockey guy (I think it might have even been Brian Burke – sorry) say that players could excel in lower leagues with one elite skill – for Schrempf that would obviously be puck skills – but needed more than one elite skill to excel in the NHL.

    I thought it was an interesting comment, anyway. When I saw Schrempf play last year (only one game, mind you), he looked slow, and weak along the boards.

    Could he be one of those guys whose skills just don’t translate to the nhl?

    gb

  18. Lowetide says:

    GB: MacT’s quote: “the things he needs to do to stay here long-term are not quick fixes. He needs the strength base and quickness. He’s got to be strong enough to battle at a standstill because he’s not going to outskate many guys….”

    would seem to agree with you.

  19. Coach pb9617 says:

    I want them to move Schremp just so I don’t have to hear about him anymore.

  20. David says:

    I’d see if I could package Jacques and Pouliot along with the first pick to get a higher pick and a second round pick.

    Schremp I’d hold on to, because he’s the only player in the organization who’s value is trending upwards. He may or may not be a player to deal in the future, but the timing is not good now, IMO.

  21. Bruce says:

    Bruce: I thought Demitra was two years from UFA when they made that deal. Is that incorrect?

    LT: No you’re right, in fact I detailed that status in my comments re: the Demitra trade. I was confused a little bit with your choice of “is” over “was”, but now am reading what you meant.

  22. Jonathan says:

    Schremp I’d hold on to, because he’s the only player in the organization who’s value is trending upwards.

    Seriously? I dare say Reddox is trending upward after his season, and Trukhno after his finish too. Guys like Chorney, Vande Velde and Petry all had seasons that boosted their value, and I think I’d take any of those three (with the possible exception of Vande Velde) over Schremp.

    As I noted here, Schremp was THN’s #16 overall prospect in 2006 after a wonderfully elite season with London. He’s dropped to the mid-60′s in their past two rankings.

    In short, I think the organization has lots of prospects whose value is trending up, and I think Schremp is going the other way. Trade him now before his value is further sunk by more time in the minors.

  23. Master Lok says:

    In regards to Schremp’s value – I think the only people who think that his value is going up are hfboards fans and prospect fans. I really think that NHL Gm’s don’t value Schremp all that highly, as evidenced by his draft day dropoff.

  24. Dennis says:

    Pouliot: Not sure why he hasn’t been signed yet and it worries me. I think he certainly showed enough to be worthy of a low-paying top nine gig and outside of the fact he’s a slow starter, I can’t understand why he hasn’t been inked as of yet.

    Schremp: a lot of depth would have to be pared before this guy could get a full-time gig. I don’t even think it’s about him not being ready anymore, it’s about other guys who are younger and have shown more. I still think he’s an NHLer on a team that could use a PP guy and has a coach patient enough to work with him but I don’t think we need to do that with this guy anymore and it makes him expendable.

    JFJ: I don’t think we’re looking at an Al Leiter here and that the only thing holding him back from making 30 starts a year and winning 15 games is a blister problem so I’m not afraid of the Oilers dealing him. But, he’s been here this long so it tells us one of two things:

    1: His trade value isn’t to the point where it’s worth giving up on him

    2: Oilers can’t bring themselves to throw him away.

    Hey, MacT and the Oil got something out of Stortini so could that not be an example that works in JFJ’s favour?

    Finally, two things to close:

    1: Is there really an urgency to deal off Schremp? I know I’ve said his value’s not likely to get higher but we’ve also got another year of waivers left for him so there’s no practical reason to get rid of him. Though Lowe has said on a couple of occasions that it’s best to turn prospects into picks if you can’t use those guys and that has more than a kernel of truth to that as well.

    2: What’s the risk and reward of dealing JFJ now and getting a paltry return as to waiving him come Oct and chancing he’ll be claimed?

    I haven’t included Pouliot in the Oct scnario because while I don’t think we’re talking Abreau being picked up from the Astros by the Rays in the expansion draft — later dealt for Kevin Stocker so it’s not like they benefitted a great deal;) — I don’t think there’s any doubt he’s an NHLer and I don’t think he’d pass through waivers.

    For Pouliot you definetly sign him for a couple of years or you deal him.

  25. David says:

    Oops. I didn’t mean “in the organization”. That was a typo. I meant of the three listed here. If I was making that list, I’d pick Schremp, Trukhno, Nash, Peckham and Deslauriers as players who have increased their value.

    Schremp has had a sharp drop in his value after having trouble in his first professional season, but his stock is, in my eyes, heading back up. He found his game at the professional level despite a few things going against him (not a lot of offensive players around him, a team that was routinely outshot, an off-season injury which delayed his workout regiment). And with his plans to go to train with the veterans in California, he’s going to be in NHL level condition.

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