12 for the Realtor

Kevin Lowe had been on the job about 5 minutes when he sent away Roman Hamrlik. The return was Eric Brewer, Josh Green and the pick that became Brad Winchester.

During the pre-lockout era, Oiler fans came to know the trade deadline and the draft as a time of year when they could look forward to losing their favorite players to other teams.

Oh sure, you’d see a Bill Guerin traded during the season here and there but for the most part those were the two times of year when good veteran players would go bye bye and we’d be introduced to another team’s failed first rounder and a lesser version of what was being sent away.

Trades that would fall into this category would be the Hamrlik to NYI deal, the Weight to STL trade and Hecht for picks.

In the summer of 2005, Lowe dealt for Chris Pronger and Mike Peca. The following summer he traded Pronger away in a deal reminiscent of the pre-CBA trades. Last summer, Kevin Lowe sent away Jason Smith and received Joni Pitkanen.

All arrows point this season to a 3-for-1, in fact management has stated it in those exact terms. They have to find a dance partner but in this day and age of quality players with oversized contracts someone out there must want to dump and overpaid player who has value to another team.

We talked yesterday about approximate trade value. The natural follow up to that is “Who’s Going?” Last year, Lowe had walking around money for free agents and three first round picks to sell for starting ballplayers.

This season? Here goes.

  1. Jarret Stoll: RFA about to get 2.2M unless he signs long term, Stoll’s poor season owed to concussions suffered the previous year. He did play against tough opposition this past season and he does have value because he’s an established NHL player who was healthy enough to play 81 games. His skills are duplicated in the lineup (Horcoff does what he does, only better) and the team has other options immediately available should he leave town. Chances of Leaving: 70%
  2. Joni Pitkanen: RFA whose agent thinks he’s Orr. Pitkanen did not have a good season but any fool can see the guy is a player. A dangerous thing, trading a player like Joni Pitkanen. It could bite you in the ass for a decade. They better get a good return. Chances of Leaving: 70%
  3. Ladislav Smid: Based on MacT’s usage of the 5-6D down the stretch I think Smid may be the odd man out. Young and established which is a compelling combination. Chances of Leaving: 60%
  4. Raffi Torres: 2 years from UFA status and he costs $2.25M. Torres ripped up his knee last year and although he’s apparently fine there seems to be some kind of player-organization disconnect. While Shawn Horcoff’s recovery is updated on the Oiler website we really haven’t heard too much about Raffi these many months. They had a January “end of season” article and not much since. I think Torres is a valuable player on this team because (when healthy) he brings a physical element not duplicated on this roster. The best this Edmonton team played this decade involved Raffi running around like a crazy man. His injury reduces his value so maybe they hold onto him but it’s no sure thing. Chances of Leaving: 50%
  5. Marc Pouliot: He’s played enough in the NHL so that teams probably have an idea about what he is as a player. Pouliot is a possibility as a throw in on the three for one or he could be dealt for a draft pick. MacT’s stated wish for Reasoner to return may have sealed his fate. Has to make the team because he won’t clear waivers. Chances of Leaving: 50%
  6. Rob Schremp: He’s on the list for two reasons: He doesn’t fit the MacT template, and he may be famous enough to get something in return. Schremp’s time is now pretty much and there may not be room here. Chances of Leaving: 40%
  7. Andrew Cogliano: I’m a fan of this guy so don’t get me wrong. Trading rookies coming off 45-point seasons is a bad team building plan, so the only way this guy moves is in exchange for someone in the impact player division. Chances of Leaving: 25%
  8. Matt Greene: A bull who hasn’t yet moved up the depth chart, the organization loves the guy and it’s hard to imagine a combination of events that would send him away. Still, they have enough depth to deal him. Chances of Leaving: 25%
  9. Shawn Horcoff: I can’t see him getting traded but if they don’t extend him then he’s a deadline deal waiting to happen. A 1line center in return would be vital. Chances of Leaving: 10%
  10. Fernando Pisani: 2 years left at $2.5M. He’s a team leader and among the smartest players on the team but has had some injury troubles plus is unlikely to deliver enough offense to cover the contract. Chances of Leaving: 10%
  11. JF Jacques: On the list because of his unique qualities, he doesn’t have much trade value and in fact might clear waivers in the fall. Chances of Leaving: 5%
  12. Dwayne Roloson: He’s on the list but I don’t think they can unload this salary. 3.667M for a 38-year old goalie is more likely a deadline deal than a draft day trade. Chances of Leaving: 2%.

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11 Responses to "12 for the Realtor"

  1. DeBakey says:

    Jarret Stoll: Most likely to be gone I think. Offers a solid set of pluses – point shot, face-offs & penalty kill – and promise that the concussion thing is behind him. Would he be worth one season of Havlat?
    Joni Pitkanen: “RFA whose agent thinks he’s Orr.” sums up the problem. Plus, the frequently alluded to dressing room issues. I think he stays – at least until a few 21-year-olds are 23 year olds.
    Ladislav Smid: This one pisses me off. Screw-up a kid playing him too much, too soon and then dump him. I hope for Peckham & Chorney’s sake they learned something from this.
    Raffi Torres: I’ll be amazed if he’s back. Two second rounders from LA?
    Marc Pouliot: Only as a throw-in, I don’t think he has much value on his own.. If they can’t move Stoll….
    Rob Schremp: More likely to go then some guys higher on your list I think. Do ya think Hockey J would like the scent of magnolias? Cuz Atlanta has nuthin’.
    Andrew Cogliano: Agreed , only for a Big, Big player
    Matt Greene: The Oil Brass are not talking about moving D. Maybe because no one’s asking. Re-listen to Mac-T’s comments about Huddy running the bench.
    Shawn Horcoff: If they decide someone like Spezza is the answer than maybe – too much salary at center. Would like to see him get $32 Million over 7 years – 6 for the first three, than 3.5 for four.
    Fernando Pisani: colitis & $2.5 mm for two means the Sainted One is staying
    JF Jacques: Would what anyone give up for a guy who can’t score & has screwed up his back? Nada.
    Dwayne Roloson: Very few teams would be interested, I think.
    But, if a $5 million+ stud is brought to town, the Oilers will have to clear his cap space.

  2. HBomb says:

    Top to bottom rundown of the entire roster, with chances of leaving in the next 30 days listed. You’ll notice 50% is the highest number I assigned.

    Goalies:

    Mathieu Garon: 1%. I think he gets extended by the time the calendar turns to 2009.

    Dwayne Roloson: 5%. They’d probably love to move this salary but might have a hard time doing it. Maybe after July 1st if someone is in dire need of a goalie?

    Defensemen:

    Joni Pitkanen: 25%. Only if the return is a monster I think. My guess is they do a one year deal, hope he pans out this season and make a decision next June. Best scenario would be if Souray has a huge year and they shop him and use the saved money to sign Pitkanen long term.

    Sheldon Souray: 0%. Untradeable.

    Steve Staios: 10%. Only if someone is willing to overpay. Not the biggest fan, but we need at least a couple d-men over 30 around here.

    Tom Gilbert: 0%. Untouchable.

    Denis Grebeshkov: 25%. Depends on what’s being offered. Think Philly would take Grebs plus Cogs for Jeff Carter? I’d do that deal.

    Matt Greene: 20%. Could go, but I don’t think he’d fetch much, and like LT says, the organization loves him.

    Ladislav Smid: 30%. An interesting option, could go in a 3-for-1 deal if it happens. I think the odds that one of he OR Greene going would be about 50%, as I think (& hope) the Oilers UFA shopping will be for a veteran stay at home defenseman.

    Mathieu Roy: 5%. Potential throw in? Injuries make him basically worthless trade-value wise. Probably could clear waivers if need be.

    Forwards:

    Ales Hemsky: 0%. Untouchable.

    Sam Gagner: 0% See Ales Hemsky.

    Shawn Horcoff: 10%. Would need an idea he was looking for too much AND there would have to be a proven star forward coming back. I’m hoping that by this time next month he’s extended for around 4.5 million cap hit over six years (6 million a year the first three years, 3 million a year thereafter).

    Dustin Penner: 5%. Considering what they paid to get this guy, I can’t see him moving unless Atlanta called and offered up Ilya Kovalchuk for Penner, Pitkanen and something else.

    Robert Nilsson: 10%. Unlikely to move, just signed extension, perfect guy to drive a soft-minutes line.

    Andrew Cogliano: 15%. A real wildcard. It would have to be some sort of return for the Oilers to consider moving him, you’d think.

    Raffi Torres: 25%. Might be a candidate to move for picks IF he was healthy. They’re going to get depressed value for him, and they need “Moreau insurance”, so why not keep him.

    Jarret Stoll: 50%. My co-leader in the likelihood to move department. If the Oilers can’t make a move for a roster player, I think they try to snag a pair of second rounders from LA or Phoenix, and I think Stoll would be a fit in both places, especially when you consider Ms. Hunter…..

    Fernando Pisani: 5%. He’d be the absolute last guy I’d move out of the “expensive bottom sixers club”.

    Ethan Moreau: 0%. Untradeable due to injury, but damn I’d wish if he got healthy they’d look into dumping him and letting Torres/Pisani be the 3rd line flanks.

    Kyle Brodziak: 5%. How much would he fetch? So, what’s the point then?

    Zack Stortini: 5%. See Kyle Brodziak.

    Marc Pouliot: 5%. They’ll sign him for two years cheap as the 13th forward and will get good value out of the deal. I hope.

    JF Jacques: 5%. Maybe as a throw in, but honestly, he has zero value right now, so they may as well keep him and sign him to a league-minimum two-way deal.

    Rob Schremp: 50%. He’s either a throw-in on a bigger deal or sent away for a similar prospect or 2nd/3rd round pick. He’s going to have an NHL career, just not under the MacT/Bucky coaching regime (thinking of Buchberger on the staff makes me throw up in my mouth a little – someone actually qualified might have been nice).

  3. Ribs says:

    Something to chew on…

    EDMONTON JOURNAL: Jim Matheson reports the Oilers might try to move forward J.F. Jacques and possibly prospect Robbie Schremp. Matheson also reports GM Kevin Lowe has apparently contacted the Penguins regarding the availability of impending UFA forward Ryan Malone.

  4. Lowetide says:

    ribs: I saw that item after posting this. Interesting that they may be shopping Schremp, although Brownlee had that on his blog awhile back.

    I also wonder about Jacques. Would he clear waivers? If he’s healthy in the fall I can see a team taking a chance on the guy.

    Maybe they deal Jacques and their own pick around 100 to move up?

  5. Coach pb9617 says:

    Matheson also reports GM Kevin Lowe has apparently contacted the Penguins regarding the availability of impending UFA forward Ryan Malone.

    The Pens need low-cost LWs in the worst way…

  6. Ribs says:

    Dumping JFJ makes a lot of sense. With the abundance of signed players and with McDonald and O’Marra hanging around there’s not much sense in keeping all of them.

  7. Ducey says:

    Seems to me that Lowe is likely to wait until after July 1 and see what the agents for Stoll and Pitkanen can dig up in the way of offer sheets. If they can’t get much he is in the driver’s seat in resigning them. If they can get an offer, Lowe might just take the picks.

  8. Dennis says:

    Anyone else heartened by the fact that we know Jim Matheson finds Dion Phaneuf more sexually attractive than Sean Avery?

    I read that today and thought:

    A: Avery’s better looking than Phaneuf by virtue that Phaneuf is ugly than a boxful of arseholes.

    B: Does it matter that I said who I thought was better looking?:)

    C: No, it doesn’t:)

    D: Why is Matheson showing his heart in a national newspaper:)

  9. Lowetide says:

    Well at least he’s gotten over Jani Rita.

  10. Islandlife says:

    Dennis: not to put too fine a point on it, but I beleive the phrase you were looking for is “can of mashed assholes”.

  11. doritogrande says:

    With the speculation Yashin wants to return to the Islanders, I think the chance of trading Mikhnov goes up. NYI would be smart to take an interest in traktor-boy as he had some great chemistry with Yashin in Russia.

    What would Mikhnov fetch from the Islanders? A second rounder? Tambellini? Anything coming back our way would be good.

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