Approximate Trade Value

We got a nice indicator about the trade value of picks this year when Marc-Andre Bergeron was dealt for a third round pick in 2008.

That’s about 85th overall.

I find this stuff interesting because it gives us an idea about what some of the Oilers prospects are worth this week. Bergeron has one more year before unrestricted free agency and his salary ($1,653,000) exceeds his cap hit ($1,107,000) by about half a million.

In an earlier post I suggested the value of three Oilers prospects:

  • #45 Marc Pouliot
  • #50 Rob Schremp
  • #100 overall Jean Francois Jacques

With one year of Marc-Andre Bergeron being worth the 85th overall selection, is it fair to say that the 50th overall pick is worth 7 years of Rob Schremp (and at $650,000 for 08-09)? I’d say it’s in the range. Although Schremp has many years before free agency he’s unproven and therefore no sure thing. Pouliot is more proven but a year older and is a restricted free agent who will demand $1M toward the cap this season.

Let’s add some names. What’s Raffi worth? Stoll? What could the Edmonton Oilers get in terms of a draft pick for Ladislav Smid at the market today?

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21 Responses to "Approximate Trade Value"

  1. Coach pb9617 says:

    what’s Raffi worth?

    85

    Stoll?

    Less. Worthless.

    What could the Edmonton Oilers get in terms of a draft pick for Ladislav Smid at the market today?

    Smid is probably the most valuable non-core asset the Oilers have right now. I don’t know how high, but high.

  2. Mike says:

    I am gonna throw this out there and wait for the (small ‘f’) flames.

    Objectively now, people – has Hemsky peaked? He is a star – but is he or will he ever be the superstar that this team (pending development of the kids) so obviously lacks?

    If he has peaked:

    1) who are his comps?
    2) What could we bring back in terms of help for right now?
    3) Under which circumstances would you deal a such a young player with such an attractive contract? For instance…suppose Lowe can’t improve the supporting cast at the draft or via UFA? Both scenarios are squarely withing the realm of reality…

    Personally I feel that 20G and 80P are the ceiling for this entertaining but limited player. Can a player like taht be the cornerstone of a franchise?

  3. Black Dog says:

    mike – 1) no idea 2) help right now – well probably a young Dman with as similar contract I would say 3) you would not – a contract like that is gold

    Considering that Hemsky is still just a kid and, in my eye anyways, took a nice step forward last year I’m not sure why you would say that he has peaked, mike. What could you get for help right now – a similar type player (ie/ young – good contract, likely a Dman) but you’re talking about robbing Peter to pay Paul, imo. You could likely get a whack of very young players/prospects from team looking to get over the top or maybe a couple of kids and a guy like Alfredsson from a team trying to move out a vet.

    Basically at best you’re looking at a lateral move (strengthen the D, weaken the F) or a step backwards. Just my opinion.

    Agree with coachpb9617 – Smid would likely fetch a nice return. Young, cheap, nice upside. Seriously.

    Stoll – you’d get nothing.

    Raffi – likely the same, not much. He has value to the Oilers playing the tough minutes but for what he does – well, look at Detroit or Anaheim – what did Moen or Pahllson or Cleary make this year? What does Cleary get next year? Plays the two way game, adds more offence, is consistent and I think he makes a little more then Raffi starting next year?

  4. Oilman says:

    Hemsky’s stats through the first five years of his career are extremely similar to the first five years of Thornton, Iginla, Savard, etc….all of whom really exploded offensively in their 6th years – there are many others, like jokinen and the sedins, who had less impressive stats than Hemsky but also exploded in their 6th NHL season….lets hope there’s something to that.

  5. Lowetide says:

    He’s Rick Middleton, plus a little bit. I can’t see any reason to trade him with this contract although a year ago it made sense to me.

  6. Coach pb9617 says:

    Agree with coachpb9617 – Smid would likely fetch a nice return. Young, cheap, nice upside. Seriously.

    I hope that it’s Greenie and not Smid that is shipped out in this impending trade.

  7. Bruce says:

    Objectively now, people – has Hemsky peaked? He is a star – but is he or will he ever be the superstar that this team (pending development of the kids) so obviously lacks?

    OK, Mike, I’ll take the bait. To grossly oversimplify, here’s Hemsky’s career stats:

    2002-03 +5 Playoffs -5
    2003-04 -7
    2005-06 -5 Playoffs -3
    2006-07 -7
    2007-08 -9

    Let’s be charitable and say that he gets saddled with a few extra minuses because he plays powerplay and not penalty kill, and he plays the last minute with our goalie out but not with their goalie out. So he’s probably closer to being a break even player than that gross -31 for his career suggests.

    But that also summarizes part of the problem with this guy. Five years on, and nobody’s going to confuse him with Datsyuk when he doesn’t have the puck. He doesn’t kill penalties, and he’s not relied on for any particularly onerous defensive duties. Not saying he’s a one-way player, just saying he’s not a dominant all-situations player like you’d like your superstar to be. And those consistent minus figures suggest likewise, that Ales simply isn’t an outscorer.

    Maybe as some of these other guys say, he’s ready to explode in Year 6. I’ve been waiting for him to explode for quite some time, and the painful progress from 19 goals two years ago all the way up to 20 this year (with a stop at 13 in between) doesn’t quite qualify as an eruption in my books.

    50 assists while running the powerplay are not to be sneezed at, but he finished outside the Top 30 in scoring again this year and that’s not quite good enough for a “superstar” in a 30-team league.

  8. Lowetide says:

    With all due respect, you people are fucked.

    Forwards PP/60 (Oilers)

    1. Hemsky 5.93
    2. Penner 4.07
    3. Horcoff 4.00
    4. Gagner 3.88
    5. Stoll 3.77
    6. Pisani 2.94

    Top PP/60 in the division (by Team):

    1. Hemsky 5.93
    2. Gaborik 5.46
    3. Iginla 5.37
    4. D Sedin 4.87
    5. Stastny 4.33

    Can we agree he’s way good as the straw that stirs the drink on the PP? I mean, he’s making 2 million less than Gaborik who’s UFA a year from now and outperforming him in the middle of a long contract where he still isn’t 25 years old.

    PLUS he plays against tough opposition (easily the toughest among Oiler RW’s) at EVs where he manages 2.36/60 compared to Gaborik’s 2.77/60.

    And Gaborik plays against the 2nd toughest minutes on his team according to Desjardins.

    Hemsky’s -9 against tough opponents doesn’t look so bad when set against the backdrop of:

    1. Stoll -23
    2. Gagner -21
    3. Reasoner -17
    4. Penner -12

    In fact, the guy we should put the spotlight on is Horcoff, who ended the season +1.

    Horcoff’s final game was January 29, 2008. Hemsky was -14 from January 29 to the end of the season, which would mean he was rumbling down the highway at +5when Horcoff got derailed.

    I urge you to reconsider Hemsky.

  9. Mark-Ryan says:

    Bruce: I can’t say that I agree with that. He might not be Pavel Datsyuk, but he’s not Marc Savard or Jason Spezza either and both of those guys can be considered superstars.

    I’d say that Hemsky has as much natural ability as Savard, and maybe closer to Spezza if he can avoid injury and play on a halfway decent team.

    And really, I think you’re splitting hairs about the top-30 thing. He was 37th (1 point behind the 30th place player) in fewer games then all but Paul Statsny, Sidney Crosby, Dany Heatley and Daniel Alfreddson. I think that’s pretty good for a 24 year-old with Hemsky’s pedigree.

  10. voxel says:

    Either Stoll / Torres are worth mid second rounders IMO. But you rarely see forwards traded for such a pick. In fact, I suspect we’ll get prospects back if Stoll + Torres go because the last “forward for 2nd” trade was Chris Gratton:

    http://nhltradeshistory.blogspot.com/

    Honestly, I don’t think Smid has that much value. Maybe a late first on a rebuilding team. He hasn’t met the expectations of a #9 overall pick.

    I love this quote about MAB from an Isle fan:

    “MAB played great last season, but i think alot had to do with he fact Poti seemed to cover all his mistakes well, this season he was paired with guys who couldn’t cover his mistakes and looked brutal.”

    Prety much sums MAB up. His so-called value(3rd round pick) is equivalent what Modry and Vandermeer were traded for and those two D-man are awful.

  11. Mark-Ryan says:

    Just to follow up on Hemsky, I went through and pro-rated the top-40 scorers in the league to 82 games and this is what I came up with:

    1) Alexander Ovechkin – 122p
    2) Sidney Crosby – 111p
    3) Evgeni Malkin – 106p
    4) Daniel Alfredsson – 105p
    5) Henrick Zetterberg – 101p
    6) Jason Spezza – 99p
    7) Jarome Iginla – 98p
    8) Pavel Datsyuk – 97p
    9) Joe Thornton – 96p
    10) Dany Heatley – 95p
    11) Vincent Lecavalier – 93p
    12) Ilya Kovalchuk – 90p
    13) Mike Ribeiro – 90p
    14) Marian Gaborik – 88p
    15) Paul Statsny – 88p
    16) Ryan Getzlaf – 87p
    17) Mats Sundin – 86p
    18) Marc Savard – 86p
    19) Derek Roy – 85p
    20) Martin St. Louis – 83p
    21) Mike Richards – 83p
    22) Eric Staal – 82p
    23) Jason Pominville – 80p
    24) Ales Hemsky – 79p
    25) Shane Doan – 78p
    26) Anze Kopitar – 77p
    27) Alexander Frolov – 77p
    28) Henrik Sedin – 76p
    29) Nick Lidstrom – 76p (insane)
    30) Jason Arnott – 75p
    31) Brendan Morrow – 74p
    32) Daniel Sedin – 74p
    33) Daniel Briere – 74p
    34) JP Dumont – 74p
    35) Patrick Kane – 72p
    36) Vaclav Prospal – 72p
    37) Olli Jokinen – 71p
    38) Jaromir Jagr – 71p
    39) Scott Gomez – 71p
    40) Rick Nash – 71p

    Granted, there are players who missed significant time who would have factored in if they played more games (like Horcoff, who would have been 28th with 77 points if he had been included) – but I think they should disqualified based on questions of sustainability anyway.

    Consider that Hemsky is younger then all but 8 players on this list, is a pure playmaker who doesn’t have a supporting cast (27 out of the 40 on this list have a teammate in the top 40 also) and played on a non-playoff team (27 of the top 40 played on playoff teams) – I’d say I came out of this thread a lot higher on Ales Hemsky then I came into it.

  12. rickibear says:

    Nov. 20 was a marker in the sand for the Penner-Horc-Hemsky. Penner was more mobile and starting to adjust to the extra shifts. The chemistry between the three was truly developing until Horcoff got hurt. They were setting an increadible pace in that period ( Nov.20-Jan.24) They displayed an 82game pace :

    Pennner: 35G 68Pt
    Horcoff: 35G 90PT
    Hemsky: 27G 105PT

    Are we to believe a line that was just getting used to each other hit there career peak together. When one is 25YR and another 24YR.

    In that period of time Penner Shooting% was 13%. He just took his shot totals to 2.9SH/GM. Makes him a 33G/yr guy. though with Stoll at center he went down to 2.3Sh/GM and a 11.5% finnish rate.

    I would like to think Mr.Hemsky is about to take that 6 year jump that Oilman pointed out. Was this period of time the sign.

  13. rickibear says:

    The other thing! Is this first line player Klowe and MacT talk about meant for the penhorsky line?

    Is the intent to get a high calibre player to recieve Mr. Gagner’s passes?

  14. Mark-Ryan says:

    I think the blogger crowd expects or demands them to upgrade on Penner. I think Stauffer and the media expects it to be Horcoff. I kind of wish they wouldn’t fuck with the team chemistry, but I’m in the minority.

    Deal Greene for a pick, overpay Commodore, enter next season and hope for the best with the kids. That’s what I want, and I think what MacTavish too.

  15. Lowetide says:

    mark ryan: Agreed. I’d like them to pick up a 2nd rd pick too, but the idea of signing a Commodore or Jason Smith is fine by me.

    The top 6F (Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky and Cogliano-Nilsson-Gagner) are fine imo and then they have all kinds of roll players for 7-12F.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Ahem. ROLE players.

  17. Ribs says:

    I think Hemsky still has a good ways to go before his prime. This last season was a big improvement in my eyes. He looks bigger on the ice now. He added some grit to his game and that can only help him. I think the days of neutralizing him with the body are heading out the door.

    His stats are deceiving only because of his lack of skilled teammates and you have to figure one of these days someone is going to have some chemistry with him and hit the ignition switch.

    All we have to do is wait.

  18. Coach pb9617 says:

    The top 6F (Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky and Cogliano-Nilsson-Gagner) are fine imo

    And *runs away to knock on front door*…*runs back* the organizational depth is there right now so that Lowe can be choosy. Barring *runs away to knock on front door*…*runs back* injury, the top 9 should be set.

  19. Bruce says:

    With all due respect, you people are fucked.

    This being Father’s Day and all, it’s one of the few dates on the calendar where that is literally true. :-D So I take no offence, LT.

    I will point out that with disclaimers like “I’ll take the bait” and “to grossly oversimplify”, that I was playing advocate to Mike’s devil. But the question I specifically addressed wasn’t “Is Hemsky any good?” or “Should we get rid of Hemsky?”, the question was “Is he or will he ever be the superstar this team so obviously lacks?” To which the obvious answer to the first part of that question is if he was that superstar now, we wouldn’t be lacking one, would we? As of now he’s good but he’s no outscorer.

    I did mention but probably didn’t emphasize enough his effectiveness on the PP, where his PPP/60 stats as highlighted by LT are pretty darn impressive. OTOH, if you choose PP+/60 as your bellweather stat, Ales ranks behind both Sedins, Langkow, Huselius, Iginla and Parrish in the NW. By my count there’s one superstar on that list (including Hemsky).

    And really, I think you’re splitting hairs about the top-30 thing.

    I guess so, MR, and your point is well taken about how close he was. But in a 30-team league, the minimum requirement is one guy in the Top 30; but he needs to be in the Top 15 before he’s any kind of an edge over whatever “tonight’s opponent” brings.

    he’s not Marc Savard or Jason Spezza either and both of those guys can be considered superstars.

    By some, I guess. To me they are not “the superstar this team lacks”, to split hairs even further. I want the kind of superstar who can win … that’s what we lack.

    Consider that Hemsky is younger then all but 8 players on this list,

    That IS encouraging (and good work on the list, btw)

    is a pure playmaker who doesn’t have a supporting cast (27 out of the 40 on this list have a teammate in the top 40 also)

    Now I’ll accuse you of splitting hairs since you chose a list that was just long enough to include Hemsky but with built-in parameters to EXclude Horcoff. So I’ll take this argument with a pillar o’ salt.

    and played on a non-playoff team (27 of the top 40 played on playoff teams)

    Not exactly a case in Hemsky’s favour in my view. If he had played a little better than -14 or whatever down the stretch, maybe he would have led his team into the playoffs.

    Sorry if the above seems harsh, but my expectations for a true “superstar” are high. Ales ain’t quite there yet. I’m certainly prepared to wait on him for another two or three years.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Bruce: Points well taken and good on you for not taking offense. :-)

    I think Hemsky is easily the best talent this club has drafted since Smyth. Whereas Ryan was playing with people like Doug Weight and Billy Guerin as a young man, our Pardubice kid is playing with another group altogether.

    Although I do like the Horcoff-Hemsky combo very much and can see a day when Penner makes three.

  21. LJ says:

    rickibear: penhorsky line. GOLD.
    i’m stealing that. if it’s already being used, your use here is the first i’ve seen.

    -lj

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