Desjardins NHLE for 2008 Draft Prospects

Last year before the draft I ran a “Desjardins NHLE” for the top 10 CHL prospects.

  1. Patrick Kane, OHL: 26-36-62 (ACTUAL: 82gp, 21-51-72)
  2. Sam Gagner, OHL: 16-39-55 (ACTUAL: 79gp, 13-36-49)
  3. Brett MacLean, OHL: 17-19-36
  4. Logan Couture, OHL: 12-24-36
  5. Zach Hamill, WHL: 11-22-33
  6. Jakub Voracek, QMJHL: 9-24-33
  7. Angelo Esposito, QMJHL: 10-20-30
  8. David Perron, QMJHL: 13-14-27 (ACTUAL: 62gp, 13-14-27)
  9. Oscar Moller, WHL: 12-13-25
  10. Colton Gillies, WHL: 5-6-11

A couple of points: We don’t know the TOI totals for junior players so these numbers are not what they could be if we could fill in the blanks. Having said that, all three of these Desjardins projections from one year ago would seem to be “in the range” for each player. Fair?

Okay, here are the Desjardins NHLE numbers for the top 20 players that we can run through the Desjardins system. Gabriel hasn’t done USHL, Swe-2, Fin Jr comps that I have seem so we are limited a little. Nikita Filatov, Joe Colborne, Matthia Tedenby, Jake Gardiner, Zach Dalpe and John Carlson are in leagues that make it impossible to project at this time.

FORWARDS (per 82gp)
  1. Steve Stamkos 23-19-42
  2. Josh Bailey 11-24-35
  3. Colin Wilson 11-21-32
  4. Cody Hodgson 14-17-31
  5. Zach Boychuk 13-16-29
  6. Mikael Boedker 12-17-29
  7. Jordan Eberle 15-11-26
  8. Kyle Beach 11-14-25
  9. Greg Nemisz 12-12-24
  10. AJ Jenks 9-11-20

DEFENSEMEN (per 82gp)

  1. Drew Doughty 6-23-29
  2. Ryan Ellis 6-19-25
  3. Zach Bogosian 5-20-25
  4. Michael DelZotto 6-18-24
  5. Alex Pietrangelo 5-17-22
  6. Luca Sbisa 2-11-13
  7. Tyler Cuma 2-11-13
  8. Luke Schenn 3-9-12
  9. Colby Robak 2-8-10
  10. Colton Teubert 2-7-9
  11. Roman Josi 2-6-8
  12. Tyler Myers 2-5-7
  • No one approaches the numbers that Kane and Gagner managed last season when filtered through Desjardins, but this may be a TOI factor.
  • I would not have guessed Bailey would be the #2 offensive forward in this draft.
  • All things being equal, the Oilers might be crazy to pass up on a defender when they pick.
  • If Bogosian’s scouting report is true AND he can be within a few points of Doughty offensively I can’t see a team passing on him at #2 overall.
  • Ryan Ellis is an interesting player.
  • People keep talking about Tyler Myers offensive upside. Is he not allowed past center or something? That’s a strange thing to be talking about with this player.
  • The Oilers would be fine drafting any of Eberle, Nemisz or Beach if they were available at their turn.
  • The Oilers would be fine with any of the 12 defensemen listed.
  • The Oilers should add an early second round pick. Soon.

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17 Responses to "Desjardins NHLE for 2008 Draft Prospects"

  1. Jonathan says:

    Maybe it’s just me, but after all the talk of how great a draft this was, it sure doesn’t seem like there’s much more offensive talent than the 2007 group. Is the hype just because the draft is so deep, rather than because of the top end guys?

  2. MikeP says:

    jonathan, yeah, that’s the first thing I thought too – for the predecessor to the Second Coming, Stamkos doesn’t stand out all that well. I caught some OHL games this year, mostly bits and pieces, and what I saw of Stamkos was that he’s nowhere near as dominating as guys like Schremp, Kane, and Perry had been. (That being said, I’m sure he’s still going to be a player.)

    LT, agreed on the high second rounder, although maybe if teams are scattered everywhere in the guys they want, the position might not matter so much.

  3. Ofer says:

    LT,

    I read your blog religiously, it’s terrific.
    I’m a longtime Oilfans guy so some may recognize my handle.

    Just wanted to point out that Ryan Ellis (Windsor) isn’t eligible until 2009. He’s a beauty, though. Should be atleast a mid-first round pick.

  4. Lowetide says:

    ofer: Thanks for the kind words and the head’s up.

    I didn’t know he was ineligible. He’s certainly worth following for ’09 based on the number. Size looks like a concern but he must be something else to play that well at his age.

  5. Ducey says:

    A thought:

    Maybe Lowe should try to focus on getting a couple of first rounders next year rather than focusing on this year. The reason is Tavares.

    I assume you have to give up less to get a first rounder in 2009 than 2008 – human nature being as it is. If the Oilers were to get a first round pick or two next year – or swap first round picks next year – or swap their 22nd this year for a teams 2009 pick -they might get lucky and wind up with a lottery pick. Then they can have their cake (the playoffs) and maybe eat it too (get a franchise player).

  6. Lowetide says:

    It’s hard to compare these numbers season over season. For instance, the OHL this season scored 4,748 goals in 1,020 games. That’s 4.65 goals per game in 07-08.

    Last season, the OHL scored 5,073 goals in 1,020 games, or 4.97 goals per game.

    I didn’t adjust for that.

    Also, ice time is a bear. The 2 London Knights kids may have gotten huge ice (lord knows Schremp did) and delivered at a points-per-minute pact that would be similar to Stamkos this season.

    It’s not perfect, but it’s a start. I think these numbers to tell us a few things, though. Like Josh Bailey is a player and that the Oilers should trade for Brett MacLean immediately.

  7. doritogrande says:

    ducey:

    No reason to trade for Tavares. The guy’s going to pull an Esposito so hard and so fast it’ll make Alex Daigle weep. In fact, he’s already doing it.

    IIRC, LT or Jonathan did a post recently on Tavares being overhyped, and I threw my two cents in there as well. “The next next one” is no longer considered the top prospect for the 09 draft, and is already in danger of falling out of the top-5 with names like Viktor Hedman, Braydon Schenn and the fellow from Spokane breathing down his back. Add this to the Ryan Ellis fellow who was arleady mentioned, and Tavares has a long way to fall.

    As if to add insult to injury, when he attempted to bitch his way into this year’s entry draft, many GM’s stated they’d rather have Stamkos anyway.

    If we’re looking at 09, I’d much rather have a 6’7″ Swedish defenseman than a slower Joffrey Lupul.

  8. jon says:

    A guy I want as a second round sleeper pick is Cody Goloubef from Wisconsin. He just screams Oilers pick to me:

    -one of the youngest in his division by a whole year
    -total package D-man rather than one trick Pony
    -In College.

    I have a feeling that if Lowe gets a second rounder it could be for this guy

  9. jon says:

    A while back Lowetide you did your top 22…any changes?

    You inspired me to do my own:

    1. Stamkos
    2. Bogosian
    3. Doughty
    4. Filatov
    5. Hodgson
    6. Boedker
    7. Wilson
    8. Pietrangelo
    9. Bailey
    10. Boychuk
    11. Schenn
    12. Beach
    13. Tedenby
    14. Eberle
    15. Colbourne
    16. Teubert
    17. Del Zotto
    18. Sbisa
    19. Carlson
    20. Nemisz
    21. Mitch Wahl
    22. Cody Goloubef

    The ommisions:
    1. Myers/ He reminds me of Boris Valabik or Hugh Jessimen, good mechanics and big size but does not live up to potential and with only one pick in three rounds too much of a swing for the fence pick.

    2. Colby Robak, good skater but did not put up enough points to outweigh his lack of physical play

    3. Stefanovich/ We already have the Canadian version of him in Jacques.

    4. AJ Jenks/ You do not take a checking forward in the first round. Ex/ see Ryan O’marra

    5. Zac Dalpe This would be my 23rd pick but he scares me the same way Riley Nash scared all of us when his name was called. too much too soon. JR B to Jr A to First round, Seems too much like a cinderella story.

    Wildcard picks: Roman Josi (one of youngest in draft), David Toews (put up similar points to brother), Anton Gustafsson (scouts seem high on him).

    Thanks,
    jon

  10. Lowetide says:

    jon: It has changed a little, mostly because of Redline.

    1. Steve Stamkos
    2. Zach Bogosian
    3. Mikael Boedker
    4. Drew Doughty
    5. Josh Bailey
    6. Luke Schenn
    7. Colin Wilson
    8. Zach Boychuk
    9. Nikita Filatov
    10. Alex Pietrangelo
    11. Cody Hodgson
    12. Joe Colbourne
    13. Colby Robak
    14. Kyle Beach
    15. Michael DelZotto
    16. Jordan Eberle
    17. Mattias Tedenby
    18. Jake Gardiner
    19. Greg Nemisz
    20. AJ Jenks
    21. Luca Sbisa
    22. Corey Trivino
    23. Tyler Myers
    24. Colton Teubert
    25. Tyler Cuma
    26. John Carlson
    27. Roman Josi
    28. Tyler Ennis
    29. Anton Gustafsson
    30. Eric O’Dell

    I’ll have one more lash at it before draft day but if you want to know what’s going to happen at the draft just wait for Bob McKenzie’s TSN top 30.

  11. oilerdiehard says:

    LT I am not sure if you seen Hillbilly Priests mock draft thread on HF or not?

    XM satellite radio apparently did a mock draft with Woodlief from the Red Line Report.

    He said he was making his picks partly based on what players he hears certain teams really have interest in. He apparently had the Oil picking Luca Sbisa with the 22nd pick.

    He mentioned Sbisa was likely the most improved player over the 07/08 campaign. Also that he really wants to play in the NHL and not just stay home and play in Switzerland.

    Just thought I would pass that along it seemed to dove tail nicely with this article.

  12. PDO says:

    Am I crazy to think Hodgson will end up being a top 3 forward out of this draft? Only guys that I’ve read anything about that makes me think could end up being better (knock on wood for injuries and such) would be Filatov and Stamkos… and I’m not overly sold on either. If Hodgson is available at #10, I think Lowe has to look long and hard at what it would take to move up…

  13. jon says:

    Coyotes have three early 2nd round picks and this is just purely speculation but in this draft is it worth trading down?

    I’m really bad at these but is this plausable
    22nd overall and Schremp
    for the
    35th, 38th, 39th?

    There will still be three solid prospects in the late 30′s of this draft.

    Thoughts?
    Jon

  14. Islandlife says:

    LT: “It’s not perfect, but it’s a start. I think these numbers to tell us a few things, though. Like Josh Bailey is a player and that the Oilers should trade for Brett MacLean immediately.”

    I’ve said it before. Next season will be all about “Who Let the Dogs Out”

  15. Lowetide says:

    jon: I’m hoping they trade one of the extra forwards for a 2nd, but maybe that’s wishful thinking.

    Prendergast’s draft record in the first round (Hemsky, Niinimaki, Pouliot, Dubnyk, Schremp, Cogliano, Gagner, Plante, Nash) was better than his second round (Doug Lynch, Eddie Caron, Jeff Deslauriers, Jarret Stoll, Matt Greene, Colin McDonald, JF Jacques, Roman Tesliuk, Geoff Paukovich, Taylor Chorney, Jeff Petry) but that’s probably true for all scouting directors.

    Stu MacGregor is the new chief scout, we’ll see how they want to go.

  16. Coach pb9617 says:

    “…trade for Brett MacLean…acquire second round pick…”

    Oh, hey there Jarret Stoll. How does Phoenix suit ya?

  17. Islandlife says:

    I don’t think Maloney and Gretzky are that stupid. Are they?

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