Draft Week Post #2: The Full Desjardins

Not long ago, I published Gabriel Desjardins NHL equivalencies for several of the top 2008 draft prospects. I stated at that time that it was impossible to include USHL and Swe-2 players becasue there was no Desjardins number. Gabriel was kind enough to pass those numbers along so this list is pretty much complete in terms of the big names available this week.

For those who are not familiar with Desjardins NHLE, it estimates the stats (per 82gp) for a given player at the NHL level for the season passed based on all things (TOI, quality of linemates, PP time) being equal.

As a point of reference, the three players who jumped from the draft to the NHL one year ago were pegged impressively by Desjardins:

  • Patrick Kane, OHL: 26-36-62 (ACTUAL: 82gp, 21-51-72)
  • Sam Gagner, OHL: 16-39-55 (ACTUAL: 79gp, 13-36-49)
  • David Perron, QMJHL: 13-14-27 (ACTUAL: 62gp, 13-14-27)

Bill James would call all three estimates a success. Here then are this season’s top prospects:

Forwards
  1. Steve Stamkos 23-19-42
  2. Josh Bailey 11-24-35
  3. Tyler Ennis 15-17-32
  4. Colin Wilson 11-21-32
  5. Cody Hodgson 14-17-31
  6. Zach Boychuk 13-16-29
  7. Mikael Boedker 12-17-29
  8. Mattias Tedenby: 13-15-28
  9. Eric O’Dell 12-16-28
  10. Jordan Eberle 15-11-26
  11. Kyle Beach 11-14-25
  12. Greg Nemisz 12-12-24
  13. Nicolas Deschamps 8-16-24
  14. Luke Adam 13-10-23
  15. Anton Gustafsson 10-13-23
  16. AJ Jenks 9-11-20

Defense

  1. Drew Doughty 6-23-29
  2. Zach Bogosian 5-20-25
  3. Michael DelZotto 6-18-24
  4. Erik Karlsson 8-14-22
  5. Alex Pietrangelo 5-17-22
  6. John Carlson 5-11-16
  7. Luca Sbisa 2-11-13
  8. Tyler Cuma 2-11-13
  9. Luke Schenn 3-9-12
  10. Colby Robak 2-8-10
  11. Colton Teubert 2-7-9
  12. Roman Josi 2-6-8
  13. Tyler Myers 2-5-7

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11 Responses to "Draft Week Post #2: The Full Desjardins"

  1. doritogrande says:

    You had mentioned earlier than taking the TSN mockdraft would be the best route if you were trying to prognosticate who would go where in the draft, but how well do you think it compares with Macguire doing the draft instead of MacKenzie?

    My guess is it isn’t as accurate.

  2. Lowetide says:

    dorito: It looks like McKenzie’s list to me. If you click on each 10 it says “Bob 21-30″ on the tab so I think that’s him.

    Nice list. I like it, wish I could find a way to print it.

  3. Knamely Lacked says:

    Well Bob usually does extremely well with these, and if this list goes as predicted by him, then I hope Tedenby does fall to the Oilers and Lowe jumps at the chance.

    I know the Oilers at the moment are undersized at forward, but I am just gun-shy from all the years of them drafting “Cokemachines.”

    Maybe Kenta’s lobbying will be successful.

  4. Dennis says:

    If Lowe HAS indeed considered pulling a Holmgren and trading a pick to the Pens in order to get an early audience with a guy like Malone, wouldn’t it stand to reason that he’d try to move the Oilers first plus a top niner for a kid like Beach?

  5. Lowetide says:

    I’d be thrilled if he moved up to get Beach. If he got Bogosian I’d die.

  6. doritogrande says:

    LT: You’re right about the prospect rankings, but it was the mock-draft I was referring to. To quote the draft-centre page:

    “Who is going where on draft day? Find out on Thursday, June 19 at 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT, when former NHL coach and scout Pierre McGuire unveils his mock first round on TSN and TSN.ca. With his knowledge of the prospects and the systems employed by each team, McGuire will look to make the best matches possible by slotting each player into a spot on the draft board. “

    If we’re looking for extra picks, I suggest shopping Mikhnov to the Islanders for a second rounder, considering they’re looking at bringing Yashin back. They’ve got two, iirc.

  7. Knamely Lacked says:

    I’d be happy with any of the B’s, Boedker, Bogosian, or Beach. But, if we’re to believe all the reports it seems one has more than a few question marks regarding his character.

  8. Mark-Ryan says:

    I’d look at shopping Greene to Los Angeles. They have a ridiculous number of picks (a 2 per round average, I believe) and they might be in the market for some depth, stay-at-home d-men. They might like a young number like Greene for a second round pick or maybe even the 28th overall.

    I’d be stoked if we could grab a lot of these kids. Tedenby and Eberle being my preference in the “realistic but they could easily go before 22″ category. Eberle especially holds a big portion of my hope come draft-day: If you can score 40+ in the WHL in your draft year without help, you must be doing something right. 5’10 be damned.

  9. Sean says:

    If Gagner was a month younger I wonder if we’d be seeing http://www.seengagner.com

  10. Dennis says:

    Greene to LA is something that makes too much sense; that means it probably won’t happen.

    It’s a move I’ve been talking about since I read about Lombardi unveiling his depth chart at a LA Kings fan convention; when you took a look, you could see those guys need some stoppers on their backend.

    LT: But what’s the chance that our first plus a top niner would GET us into the top 10? I guess it all depends on what’s left and what the targeted team needs but I’m just wondering if we could pull it.

    Also, reading today that Howson wants to move the 6th overall for a #1 centre, would he consider Horc to be that guy and would Lowe look to move him?

    Finally, Wheeler’s agreed in principle with the B’s but they can’t/won’t announce it until July 1st. There’s a story about it today in the BGlobe.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Cogliano and #22 probably gets you into the top 10 a ways, but do you want to do that?

    As for Wheeler, good on Orr’s team but they’ll piss it away they always do.

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