Paint by Numbers

As the Oilers sit idling in the driveway, left defense is the most expensive position on the club.

By a mile.

I think it’s a good idea to go back over the numbers and post the cap hits before the RFA’s are signed and any UFA’s are brought in.

My own opinion is that Joni Pitkanen is now a player this team cannot afford and will be sent away soon for a scoring winger or a two-way center.

We’ll see.

Let’s start with the cap stuff.

  • GOALKEEPER: Mathieu Garon (1.1M), Dwayne Roloson (3.67M)
  • LEFT DEFENSE: Sheldon Souray (5.4M), Denis Grebeshkov (1.5M), Ladislav Smid (.886M)
  • RIGHT DEFENSE: Lubimor Visnovsky ($5.6M), Tom Gilbert (4M), Steve Staios (2.7M)
  • CENTER: Shawn Horcoff (3.6M), Sam Gagner (1.625M), Kyle Brodziak (.497M)
  • LEFT WING: Dustin Penner (4.25M), Andrew Cogliano (1.133M), Raffi Torres (2.25M), Ethan Moreau (2M)
  • RIGHT WING: Ales Hemsky (4.1M), Robert Nilsson (1.833M), Fernando Pisani (2.5M)
  • TOTAL SIGNED PLAYERS: 18
  • TOTAL DOLLARS SPENT: $48,644,000
  • CAP: $56,700,000
  • DOLLARS AVAILABLE: $8,056,000
  • ROSTER SPOTS AVAILABLE: 5

Let’s list the RFA’s:

  • RW Zach Stortini (last year’s cap number: $534,000)
  • C Marc Pouliot (last year’s cap number: $942,000)
  • LW Ryan Potulny (last year’s cap number: $643,000-signed)
  • D Joni Pitkanen (last year’s cap number: 2,400,000)
  • G Jeff Deslauriers (last year’s cap number: $502,000)

Let’s list the UFA’s:

  • LW Curtis Glencross (last year’s cap number: $522,000)
  • C Marty Reasoner (last year’s cap number: $950,000)

And then let’s list some minor league players of interest:

  • D Theo Peckham ($600,000)
  • D Bryan Young ($540,000)
  • D Sebastien Bisaillon ($500,000)
  • D Mathieu Roy ($500,000)
  • C Rob Schremp ($860,000)
  • LW Bryan Lerg ($568,500)
  • LW Liam Reddox ($508,000)
  • LW Tim Sestito ($487,000)

With 8.056M million to play with, if we estimate 5 rfa’s (Pitkanen $4M, Pouliot $1M, Stortini $600k, Potulny $700k, JDD $600k) we get $6.9M and the Oilers have $1.156M to play with during the season and at the deadline.

Make sense? Love the D, thin at forward. I think they deal Pitkanen.

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39 Responses to "Paint by Numbers"

  1. goldenchild says:

    Matt Greene 1.15?
    All signs do point to Pitkanen leaving for forward which wold be fine now but i still hope Lowe can find a cheap vet D to round out top 6. Somebody with a little edge.
    Like the move yesterday though.

  2. Lowetide says:

    goldenchild: Fixed.

  3. Devin says:

    Pavol Demitra, anyone? He and Lubo are buddies, and he’d more than fill the question marks at C/RW.

  4. goldenchild says:

    1 thing as much as like the deal for Vish, if Lowe and Co are cool with spending 5.6M next 5 years on him then there should be no hangup in gettind a deal done with Horc. Deal Pitkanen do what you have to do July 1 but sigining Horecoff has to be top priority now.

  5. Black Dog says:

    apparently Demitra may be going to the Canucks

    LT – any ideas on cheap youngsters who might fit that #3 role – Kesler types are what I am thinking.

    I have not the foggiest.

    Unless they decide to give Cogliano a whirl there and bring in a winger I am thinking that is what they should be targetting

    makes sense in terms of the cap (young but cheap without the counting numbers), the window for the club moving forward and what this team needs – young Joel Otto

  6. Lowetide says:

    BDHS: They’ll bring in Reasoner, move Penner over (if they get a sniper) or use Brodziak.

    That’s my guess.

  7. Black Dog says:

    LT – yuck

  8. misfit says:

    I believe Vishnovsky actually plays RD even though he’s a southpaw.

  9. transplantedjetfan says:

    yeah, I read somewhere he played his off-side last year as he was paired with Blake.

  10. jon k says:

    He prefers to play left it seems. This past season was apparently his first playing on the right full-time and his poor season can partially be attributed to that, according to some LA fans. Also however, Blake was supposedly brutal this past season, which may have led Visnovsky to be affected by “The Staios/Smid Effect”. Or the Redden/Meszaros effect if you like. Good for those hoping for a rebound if he can get a mobile, responsible D partner.

  11. IceDragoon says:

    Good day.

    I could be wrong, but I seem to recall from some time ago that Visnovsky is a lefty who plays RD.

    If he was switched to play with Blake, a RD, that suggests that he played LD last year… and didn’t like it much, or fair very well, from what some Kings fans are saying.

    L8r
    Louise

  12. Lowetide says:

    If he plays RD then putting him with Souray or Grebeshkov is probably the way to go. He isn’t much in the corners but once there is puck possession he’s silly-good.

    Sounds like a match for Souray.

  13. jon k says:

    Apparently he plays the right hand side for the PP in order to get off the lefty one-timer, much like Souray. Still not quite sure how he’d play at ES though.

  14. Oiler Mag says:

    Potulny is already inked to a 1-year contract.

  15. Boondock says:

    I think we could get Pouliot at substantially less than $1M if he was offered a one-way deal.

  16. jon k says:

    If he’s under the league average in salary you have to qualify him at his current salary plus 10% I believe. I’m not certain on the figure for the league average now, but I think it’d be over 0.984.

  17. Dennis says:

    So, we’ve got our first controversy: who gets the right point on the PP; Souray or Lubo?

    In other news, can we get Peca here right now?

  18. Lowetide says:

    Peca is sounding better and better isn’t he? I vote for Souray to be saved for PK duty.

    And fighting.

    And THEN in November….. :-)

  19. IceDragoon says:

    So, we’ve got our first controversy: who gets the right point on the PP; Souray or Lubo?

    Lubo!
    Souray can mop up.

    Just listened to the Visnovsky phone conference on Stauffer. He confirms that I wasn’t wrong.
    ;-D
    He’s always been a RD and was out of his element last year on Blake’s left.

    Sure, it’s nice to get a guy who can play both sides, but elite RDs are nothing to sneeze at.

    In other news, can we get Peca here right now?

    Yes, please.

  20. Dennis says:

    Listening to Stauffer now and he says he’s hearing the Oilers will throw the bank at Hossa tomorrow.

    Even if we dealt off Pitkanen for no salary coming back — which is unlikely considering how far away we are from the ’09 draft — how in the hell can we afford to pay Hossa 8 mill a year?

    Raffi’s out the door for a pick but wouldn’t this mean Horc’s done as well?

  21. Lowetide says:

    Or Souray has retired. I’ve constructed MY alter, where is yours?

  22. godot10 says:

    Peca probably ends up in Toronto this year, which is the team he wants to play for, which is very close to Buffalo, where his wife and kids are.

  23. goldenchild says:

    How are retirements handled in terms of affecting cap? I thought we were all praying for a injury settlement for Souray?

  24. HBomb says:

    Or Souray has retired. I’ve constructed MY alter, where is yours?

    Anyone know how to remove goat’s blood stains from berber carpeting?

    There’s been some serious sacrifice to the hockey gods the last couple days over here. Besides the goat slaughter, many innocent beers and bottles of various hard liquor have also been sacrificed.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Well that isn’t going to work. Someone said he was blogging (and healthy) so he’s coming back for sure.

    If Hossa cost $9M there would be no real way to avoid Horcoff imo. Horcoff, Pitkanen and Torres, something like that.

  26. Jonathan says:

    http://coppernblue.blogspot.com/2008/06/assuming-pitkanen-stays.html

    There isn’t enough money, even if Souray retires- it will go to Pitkanen.

    Honestly, how does handing big money to Hossa over the long haul help this team? Am I the only one here who would rather that the Oilers keep Horcoff and get a nice LW at a legitimate price than send away Horcoff and hope that Gagner/Cogliano are ready for 2009-10?

  27. Bruce says:

    As the Oilers sit idling in the driveway, left defense is the most expensive position on the club.
    By a mile.

    Accoding to your re-alignment with Vi$nov$ky on the right side:

    LD sans Pitkanen: $7.786 MM
    RD: $12.3 MM

    Holy shit, defencemen are expensive. That’s $20 MM for six guys, with a pricey RFA waiting in the wings.

  28. PDO says:

    Maybe SJS wants Souray back, for some toughness and leadership and all that kind of jazz.

    I threw it out there to Dennis last night…

    Marleau for Souray, straight up.

    Marleau is a bigger hit for two years, and I don’t think he’s that good of a player either, but his contract ends when the kids are up.

    Just sayin…

  29. Boondock says:

    If he’s under the league average in salary you have to qualify him at his current salary plus 10% I believe. I’m not certain on the figure for the league average now, but I think it’d be over 0.984.
    Yes, but that would be a two-way deal. I’d bet Pouliot would give some dollars away for the guarantee of a one-way contract.

  30. Jonathan says:

    Maybe SJS wants Souray back, for some toughness and leadership and all that kind of jazz.

    I threw it out there to Dennis last night…

    Marleau for Souray, straight up.

    That would be nice. Here’s another one:

    Kariya for Souray. STL finished 30the powerplay last year, and Kariya would probably fit nicely on the top line.

  31. spOILer says:

    If Joni goes we’re left with…

    SOUR VISN
    GREB GILB
    SMID STAI

    Anything he brings back in terms of 1st or 2nd tier forward is likely to add salary.

    Dumping Raffi for a pick to sign GlenX doesn’t save that much.

    So a UFA play, unless it’s for a cheaper guy like Vrbata/Ryder doesn’t seem likely.

    Pitkanen for Higgins or Vermette seems underwhelming, and guarantees Cogs plays 3C which seems a bit too much for him. Or you could play Vermette at 3C, but he’ll be expensive for the position. He’s a good face-off man though.

    Penner and Grebs for Gagne, and then Joni, Torres & Schremp for Dubinsky and Tyutin:

    GAGN HORC HEMS
    NILS DUBI GAGN
    MORE COGL PISA
    GLEN BROD STOR

    SOUR VISN
    TYUT GILB
    SMID STAI

    That’s a second line with some newfound aggression and edge. A fast elite scoring first line. Adds a shutdown hitter on the defense. $50M cap hit before signing the spares.

    Downsides: Still has 3C issues. A bit younger. Gagne has risky injury history.

  32. Lowetide says:

    You won’t find a fan who likes Pouliot more than me, but lordy if he was just a hair better that 3line issue would be solved in-house.

    I know he did some nice things down the stretch, would it have been enough for them to project him into that role?

  33. Lord Bob says:

    What makes us think Brodziak can’t handle the 3-line? He handled the 4-line well and he wasn’t always out against Derek Boogaard. He has all the skills and he has plenty of brains. I’d take him before I took Pouliot, anyway.

    Now, if we could get a Staal/Vermette type for pennies on the dollar, sure. But how much does Vermette give an eighth-place team that Brodziak doesn’t give us?

  34. Jonathan says:

    What makes us think Brodziak can’t handle the 3-line? He handled the 4-line well and he wasn’t always out against Derek Boogaard. He has all the skills and he has plenty of brains. I’d take him before I took Pouliot, anyway.

    Always liked Brodziak, btw, but here is a good reason why I dont think he is ready for elite competition:

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/2007/basic_5_on_5.php?sort=7&mingp=&mintoi=&team=EDM&pos=F

    Basically 2.76 GFON/60 and 3.44 GAON/60 against middling-poor opposition.

  35. Dennis says:

    LT: I don’t really think so but unless 19 returns, I don’t really see who else they’d play in that role?

    Unless they let Schremp take Cogs role and Cogs gets that third line pivot gig.

    The only thing I will say is I doubt the Pitkanen return’s gonna be a two way tough min pivot and if 19 was gonna be brought back, wouldn’t they have announced that today? Things cleared up at pivot once 16 was dealt.

  36. Lowetide says:

    I think they’re not done yet, but certainly have candidates for 1-4C that could fill the roles.

    Problem is with Cogs or Pouliot or Brodziak at center then Horcoff is doing the heavy lifting at home and MacT isn’t going to get fun matchups for them on the road.

  37. Dennis says:

    LT : Well, there’s been a lot of talk of needing a scorer but not a sound about who the other tough min pivot would be in 16′s absence.

    So, they’re probably gonna bring back 19 or they’re confident that one of Cogs-Brodz-MP can handle matters.

  38. RiversQ says:

    Basically 2.76 GFON/60 and 3.44 GAON/60 against middling-poor opposition.

    Personally I think Brodziak’s a true bottom 6er, but I wouldn’t run away and hide with this argument though.

    IIRC, Brodziak did have to take a decent number of own zone draws before getting on that true 4th line with Huggy and Glencross. That can mess with the numbers.

    To that end, I’d like to see Brodziak’s 5V5 GD by quarters. Of course it would be good to dig out one of Vic’s posts on the faceoffs too.

  39. Jonathan says:

    IIRC, Brodziak did have to take a decent number of own zone draws before getting on that true 4th line with Huggy and Glencross. That can mess with the numbers.

    To that end, I’d like to see Brodziak’s 5V5 GD by quarters. Of course it would be good to dig out one of Vic’s posts on the faceoffs too.

    Yeah, that’s pretty much how I remember it too. I think Dennis is the guy who first picked up on it, but the point about Brodziak generally creating offensive chances was correct IMO. I honestly think right now he does a better job scoring than he does checking, which is one reason why he’s a nice fit for 4th-line duty for another year.

    Also, if we split GD by quarters, he’s going to look really good for the last 25% of the season, when all of those guys were firing at a rate that I can’t see any of them repeating.

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