Peckham Order

There’s some excitement building among Oiler fans when it comes to prospects on the blueline. UND’s Taylor Chorney has the best draft pedigree and Jeff Petry appears to have the most offensive potential.

Cody Wild is a guy the organization is high on and he’s already seen some AHL action (13gp, 1-2-3 for Springfield at the end of the season). The Oilers just signed European defender Josef Hrabel who is older and may be closer to NHL ready than any of these guys.

I believe they’re all behind Theo Peckham on the depth chart. In fact, when it comes to young defenders who could force their way onto the big league roster in the next 12 months one could argue that it’s a contest between Peckham (who won’t turn 21 until the season begins) and Hrabel (coming up on 23).

Last fall, just as his pro career was getting underway (at age 19), the New England Hockey Journal had this quote from an NHL scout about Peckham: “I think he’s solid positionally and has improved his transition game,” said the scout. “From the standpoint of size, he’s ready for the NHL. But he needs to work on his skating and his speed. Sure, he takes a lot of penalties but he seldom takes a dumb penalty and is good at picking his spots. Like they say in baseball, he stays within himself.”

If we’re making a depth chart on D for the fall, Peckham would have to rank just behind the 7 roster players (Pitkanen, Staios, Gilbert, Grebeshkov, Souray, Greene, Smid) and Mathieu Roy who is the organization’s “Pierre Bouchard callup” when he’s healthy. I’d put Hrabel in the range with Peckham too.

After that, there’s the players who haven’t played much in the AHL (Wild, Bisaillon) and Bryan Young. Petry and Chorney have yet to sign pro contracts. Danny Syvret and TJ Kemp are RFA’s and may or may not be back.

A quick try at the organization depth chart on D:

  1. Joni Pitkanen
  2. Steve Staios
  3. Denis Grebeshkov
  4. Tom Gilbert
  5. Sheldon Souray
  6. Matt Greene
  7. Ladislav Smid
  8. Mathieu Roy
  9. Theo Peckham
  10. Josef Hrabel
  11. Bryan Young
  12. Sebastian Bisaillon
  13. Cody Wild
  14. TJ Kemp (unsigned RFA)
  15. Danny Syvret (unsigned RFA)
  16. Taylor Chorney (college)
  17. Jeff Petry (college)

In looking at this list, there are two additional thoughts that come to mind:

  • The Falcons are going to be extremely young on defense.
  • Peckham may push Greene or Smid as soon as the fall.

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27 Responses to "Peckham Order"

  1. Black Dog says:

    I’m with you LT. Actually I think Smid is getting moved. I can’t see him hanging around in the PB.

    Roy is the seventh man and when Souray goes down he gets his half dozen shifts. Once he goes down then Peckham or Hrabel gets the call.

    Next summer either Joni or Grebeskov get a longterm deal, the other gets moved and your LD is your longterm deal man, Souray and Peckham or Hrabel.

    Terrific job by procurement on the blueline, imo.

  2. DeBakey says:

    Lowe’s operation takes some flak around here
    And not without reason

    But, you know, they’re doing a lot of things right.
    This AHL D group is only part of it.

    They’re trying to build depth through the entire organiztion – 60 players deep.

    A couple of months back you had a post up about Derek Whitmore, leading goal scorer in NCAA D-I.
    Buffalo got him.
    But the Oilers have snagged two of the top NCAA scorers, Lerg & Radja.

    Now it Lowe could just pull the trigger on a couple of key trades.

  3. DeBakey says:

    Matheson had an interesting line this morning:
    “now that Rob Daum is staying put”

    Did I miss something?

  4. PunjabiOil says:

    I think Matt Greene should be moved before Bobby Smid – but if we trade Smid and get fair value back, you won’t see me crying about it.

  5. doritogrande says:

    Grebeshkov > Gilbert?

    Seriously, LT? I know it’s a Sunday morning, and any normal man is hung-over at this point, but how do you put a chaos ahead of a steady performer?

    You can point at Grebeshkov’s last 30 games as proof that he’s getting it, but I can point at Gilbert’s last 80 games as proof that he’s already got it.

    Regarding Peckham, is he to defensive prospects what Pouliot is to offensive prospects for you? ;) Sure he’s come a long way in a year, but there has to be a reason he was left for the third round. We’re not the Detroit Red Wings you know. I’ll give him credit for what he’s done this past year, but we may be hyping him up a tad too much.

    Should be a very eye-opening development camp.

  6. Big T says:

    Pretty sure LT has the top six lister in terms of pairings ie; left D – right D.

    1,3,5 are all LD, 2,4,6 are all RD.

    T

  7. Lowetide says:

    dorito: Big D nailed it, and yes I ONCE AGAIN mixed my liqour last night so am unable to move.

    :-)

  8. Traktor says:

    Didn’t the Oilers trade up to draft Peckham?

    I’m sure it never gets mentioned in the Lowehatersphere though.

  9. Coach pb9617 says:

    I still think that Torres [definitely] and Greene are a perfect fit for Pittsburgh, even moreso if they trade Gonchar for some picks.

    Torres and Greene to Pittsburgh for a handful of picks. Restock the Penner picks and free up some roster space.

  10. HBomb says:

    I don’t like how you’ve got your top four listed LT. I can’t reason Gilbert behind Grebeshkov right now, and I’d argue that he’s close to Staios as well (and probably will be solidly number 2 by this time next year).

    Every time I read some logic that trading Pitkanen is a good idea because we’re going to have Souray back, I throw up a little in my mouth. That’s a terrible justification for potentially shopping the guy, really.

  11. Pat H says:

    //Matheson had an interesting line this morning:
    “now that Rob Daum is staying put”

    Did I miss something?//

    I second that question.

  12. Lowetide says:

    HBomb: It’s LD-RD. I put Staios ahead of Gilbert because as good as Gilbert is Staios has the experience imo to still be the better man.

    And Pitkanen is the best defenseman on the team, or he should be.

  13. HBomb says:

    HBomb: It’s LD-RD. I put Staios ahead of Gilbert because as good as Gilbert is Staios has the experience imo to still be the better man.

    And Pitkanen is the best defenseman on the team, or he should be.

    Makes sense. I’d say Pitkanen is the best d-man on the team as well. Who was it that posted that analysis of the team’s performance with/without Pitkanen in the lineup/on the ice? I’d love to see that front-and-centre in a mainpage topice for discussion. I’m a big believer that a lot of people underestimate his value to this team.

    And am I off-base in thinking Gilbert could potentially surpass Staios by the end of this season? I don’t think so. In fact, this is what makes sense to me, pairings wise, for opening night (assuming Pitkanen is retained).

    Pitkanen-Gilbert
    Souray-Staios
    Grebeshkov-Greene/Smid

    The more time goes by, the more I think that the idea that one of Greene/Smid gets moved along this summer makes sense. I wonder if a Smid/Stoll/Schremp package would be attractive to anyone? Would that be an overpay for Erik Cole? Jeff Carter? Alex Frolov? Jonathan Cheechoo?

  14. grease trap says:

    For Cheechoo you’d have to offer a lot more. Nice to daydream about, though.

  15. HBomb says:

    For Cheechoo you’d have to offer a lot more. Nice to daydream about, though.

    Really? Out of all the guys on that list, I think only Cole would come “cheaper” in terms of assets you’d have to give up.

    After the playoff he had, Jeff Carter wouldn’t come easy (one wonders if maybe Philly makes Simon Gagne available if they have to give Carter big-money for 5+ years), and I think LA’s smart enough to know that Frolov is a keeper (but I continually wonder if they’d move him for the right package, given they have Cammalleri-Kopitar-Brown in place as a trio).

  16. DBO says:

    Somehwat off topic. But looking at UFA wingers, who would you rather have?
    Jagr = 2 years $4.5 million per
    Satan = 3 years $2 million per

    Who would be a better fit, and would Satan produce goal wise close to Jagr or is the dropoff so large that the $2.5 million in savings not worth it?

  17. Jonathan says:

    Somehwat off topic. But looking at UFA wingers, who would you rather have?
    Jagr = 2 years $4.5 million per
    Satan = 3 years $2 million per

    At that money, both of them. I’d say you can probably at least double Satan’s salary, and add 50% again to Jagr’s and have a conservative bet of what they sign for.

  18. Bruce says:

    I put Staios ahead of Gilbert because as good as Gilbert is Staios has the experience imo to still be the better man.

    And you put Grebeshkov ahead of Souray because … ?

    I can’t decide whether Souray is more overrated by Oiler management or underrated by the Oilogosphere, but there’s no way the team considers him their #5 guy going forward. No way.

  19. rickibear says:

    Bruce: Pk and PP Souray is our #1 LD but EV #2 in TOI for LD. Grebs season TOI was 16:52. From march on he jumped to 21:00 How much was a jump in EV, PP, and PK? I do not know!

    So do we go:
    Pitkanen-Staios
    Souray-Gilbert
    Grebs-Greene
    Smid

    This fits what you and LT are saying.

  20. Bruce says:

    Yeah, that looks more like it to me, RB. Your point about special teams is central; this past season Souray was indeed #1 in TOI/GP on both special teams, and #4 at ES. One of those rare cases where MacT agreed with Dennis. :) But there’s no way Sheldon’s not in the top 3 — or if you prefer, in the top two pairings — no matter how you slice up the depth chart.

    In fact you could do worse than to rank them by TOI/GP which showed a very clear division in 2007-08:

    Souray 24:20
    Pitkanen 24:07
    Gilbert 22:11
    Staios 22:01
    ——–
    Smid 17:51
    Grebeshkov 16:52
    Greene 16:41
    —–
    Peckham 13:22
    Rourke 10:55
    Roy 10:23

    Young 2:08
    ==

    That pretty much co-aligns with who’s getting paid, too. Of the young entry-level bucks Gilbert seized the day and grabbed a top 4 spot, and now has the pay stub that suggests he will continue in that role indefinitely. Grebs perhaps took most advantage of Souray’s injury and may be closest to forcing his way in there upon the next injury. Given that the two LD above him are Pitkanen and Souray, that seems like a high-probability event.

    But depth charts are made assuming all are healthy. Assuming Pitkanen’s return, what is certain to be healthy is the competition among the 5-6-7 guys for regular ice. I’m one of the few who is a fan of all three of those boys, and while I’m happy there’s more talent in the bushes I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if any of them is good enough right away to get into the mix with our emerging young veterans.

  21. Lowetide says:

    I think the Oilers will have 4 better options at EVs than Sheldon Souray in 08-09.

  22. Bruce says:

    LT: Does your depth chart not consider special teams? Souray played just 2:27 per game more than Grebs at evens last year, but a full 5:00 minutes more on special teams, and I don’t see that changing (much) anytime soon.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Bruce: Oh no, I’d run Souray ragged PP and PK. And listen, he makes some nice plays. I was at a game where he lost his stick in the offensive zone and was late getting out of his end and he closed the gap like a fucking freight train chasing a house on the side of the road to make a play.

    He’s talented, but the EV results aren’t there going back some time.

  24. Dennis says:

    It doesn’t appear that anyone with any juice agrees with me but I don’t know how you wouldn’t look for a D before you looked for a forward.

    This team’s gonna be in the top half of the league in terms of GF and the PP was good for, what, the last 60 games?

    But there’s just not enough veteran cool on the backend. There’s too much “potential” and not enough GP.

    I’m not sure what Lowe’s looking at as a possible window — I know that due to LT, a lot of us look at how many years are left on the pact of 83 — but I’d suggest you need to win something before both 13-89 get paid before the 2011 season.

    So, that would give us two years before there’s just about no bargains left in terms of guys who actually make a difference in some discipline, ie be it EV or ST play.

    To that end, get a dman with hair on his back for fucksakes;)

  25. Bruce says:

    Dennis: You mean somebody like Sheldon Souray? :-D

  26. rickibear says:

    Bruce Funny: The PK & PP point is critical.
    There is an average of 4.285 PP and PK opportunities/Team/GM.
    There is a league average success raste of 17.7%

    Therefore there is on average:
    4.285 x 2 x 2 x .823 = 14:06 TOI PK+PP. On average the teams yeild 76.87 goals a year on special teams which is:
    ((76.87/82)/14.1) x 60 = 3.99/60min

    There were on average 146.17 EV goals per team which is:
    ((146.17/82)/45.9) x 60 = 2.33/60min

    Getting the best Special team dman in the league is just as important as the best EV Dman.

  27. Bruce says:

    Getting the best Special team dman in the league is just as important as the best EV Dman.

    Yeah, and his name is Nicklas Lidstrom. But I see your point, RB, even if I don’t quite follow your math. (The “x .823″ part suggests that successful powerplays take no time at all.) I would take the approach that the average powerplay lasts about, say, 1:40, given that one in six ends early with a goal, there are occasionally overlapping penalties which cut into powerplay time even as they record a full opportunity, the average is lengthened slightly by majors, etc.

    But accepting your numbers of 8.5 powerplays per game, at ~100 seconds per that’s a shade over 14 minutes, so your conclusion is certainly in the ballpark. I would drop some of the significant digits and conclude that about a quarter of each game is spent on special teams, but over a third of goals are scored then, which clearly magnifies their importance.

    Souray’s position on the first unit of both magnifies his importance. Which is why I put him nearer, if not at, the top of the depth chart.

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