Any list of possible trade assets for the deadline includes all 2023 and 2024 draft picks, players who will be included to send away cap and some of Edmonton’s top prospects. Some, not all. Why?
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers ride high-flying offence to strong January finish
- DNB: Are the Oilers actually good again or are they simply benefitting from an easy schedule?
- Lowetide: Are the Oilers getting enough out of their AHL prospect pipeline?
- DNB: Oilers give a third-string university goalie the experience of his lifetime
- Lowetide: Oilers rookies Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway arriving right on time
- DNB: Oilers trade target: Scouting Blue Jackets defenceman Vladislav Gavrikov
- Lowetide: 3 trades that could help the Oilers this season and beyond
- New DNB: Oilers’ Zach Hyman subscriber Q&A
- Lowetide: The 5 biggest reasons for Edmonton Oilers’ recent turnaround
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ 2022 NHL Draft class gains momentum
- DNB: What I’m hearing on Oilers’ trade deadline plans
- Lowetide: Is Oilers’ Vincent Desharnais an NHL defenceman?
- Lowetide: Unusual Nugent-Hopkins line gives Oilers coaching staff options
- DNB: The Oilers scratching Jesse Puljujarvi shows it’s time for them to part ways
- DNB: Oilers must act at the trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers midseason review of 2022-23 reasonable expectations
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ December sleep walk a touch of deja vu
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors’ 2022-23 season review to date
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
VALUE DEALS
This is the 2005-06 team that made it all the way to Game 7 SCF. I count seven value deals, although Matt Greene was some way from being a true NHL player. The forwards made a massive difference, five of the top nine spots coming in for less than $4 million. Shawn Horcoff’s $1 million would come in around $1.4 million in today’s money. This was a unique situation, unlikely to occur any time soon. Still, it shows the importance of value deals.
The Oilers in 2022-23 have several value deals, but Holloway and Broberg are under contract for next season and there’s certainty. That’s important. You can’t have a 23-man roster with everyone making $3.6 million (the cap divided by 23 spots) because that would require throwing Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and a bunch of others overboard.
The Oilers need Broberg and Holloway, frankly they need at least two more young players who make lower dollars for 2023-24. Right now, the young and inexpensive on the roster are Holloway, Broberg, Stuart Skinner, Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Klim Kostin and Vincent Desharnais. Only Desharnais is signed to a lower deal for next season, and Edmonton cannot count on him to play a prominent role (although it is possible).
BO HORVAT
This is such an interesting trade on so many levels. For Vancouver, getting the first-round pick in 2023, a selection that could land in the teens (No. 14 currently) is golden. The problem for Vancouver is there are no guarantees with that selection and the team’s drafting has been uneven (with some brilliance) in recent years. The two players acquired will no doubt do good things, but both men are likely to spend their Vancouver careers as support players.
For me, the Islanders could make out like bandits on this deal. I don’t think they will make the playoffs, meaning Horvat could be on the move again. The retention of part of the contract is fascincating. Horvat’s NYI deal has a cap hit of $4.125 million and Lou can retain as much as half of that total. What do you think Lamoriello could get at the deadline for a $2 million Horvat? A king’s ransom.
Do you know who might be interested? Ken Holland. Edmonton’s first-round selection is currently No. 21, and adding Horvat might bring a player like Evan Bouchard or Ryan McLeod into play. Xavier Bourgault and Reid Schaefer could be used in a deal like this, especially if Horvat signs with Edmonton.
You may balk at the Bouchard idea, and I think it madness, but Holland’s attachment to the young player may be loosened at the thought of a significant cap increase over the summer. No such worry with Broberg.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
At 10 this morning, through 2 this afternoon, we’ll shake, rattle and roll with sports talk. Bruce Arthur from The Toronto Star will weigh in on the passing of Bobby Hull, the big Van-Islanders deal and more. We’ll talk NBA (Raps and deadline) and hear from you on the text line at 10-1260. I’m @Lowetide on twitter and read the comments here during the show. 90 minutes from now!
Summarizing!
Schaefer had an assist in a T-Birds win.
Chiasson’s new team beat his old team, but he figured not in the scoring.
Some chatter that the Canucks didn’t shop Horvat offer from Lou.
Fan960 in Calgary stated the same tonight, although maybe echoing the same source.
Ill never understand why GMs dont shop. Unless its some high pressure sales tactic from Lou.
Watching the Condors play tonight.. Tyler Tullio is a kid who would be loved by fans in Edmonton. He’s pesky out there and has a bit of offence too.
Lavoie rags the puck in the offensive zone – a sortie is stilted by Lavoie and McKegg work to get the puck back and McKegg feeds Lavoie in the slot who snaps it home less than a minute in to the 3rd for a 7-3 lead. Bourgault with the second helper.
Lately has Lavoie looked as good as the number suggest?
Even better – he’s been impactful in all zones and must of his offence is coming off of strong drives to the net and battles for the puck (not just relying on his shot) – its very heartening.
Elliotte with a rare 32 thoughts.
Pay special attention to #17 as it could have a drastic impact on the cap.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/32-thoughts-canucks-islanders-make-interesting-gambles-in-horvat-trade/
Ooop, a weak defenive zone play by Demers and the puck scoots to the high slot and is buried by Imama.
6-2.
Next shift, Malone with an outside shot from the left side boards, the goalie gives a terrible rebound – a couple stabs by Bourgault and he’s got his 10th and a much needed goal.
6-1 Condors with 7:30 left in the 2nd.
Tulio and Savoie with just full effort battling behind the opposition net. Lavoie in particular wins the battle, goes backhand behind the net to Tulio with space who finds Gildon sneaking in from the point and he buries it high glove side for a 5-1 lead.
Lavoie/Esposito/Tulio have been all over the scoring chances.
Savoie came back?
Or did you mean Esposito?
Savoie left the game after the incident and did not come back.
Espo spent quite a bit of time between Lavoie/Tulio but the lines were all over for much of the game.
Late in the first, Malone goes cross-ice back to the right point and Kesslering absolutely lasers a snap shot far side under the bar an in.
8 minutes in to the 2nd, Hamblin quick and fast on the forecheck causes a turnover and the puck to Kesselring sneaking in from the right point to the top of the circles and he buries it high blocker side for his 2nd and a 3-1 lead (Hamblin and Malone with the assists).
Right after, Bailey takes an outlet pass, carries it across the line to the face-off dot and snaps one far side for a 4-1 lead – goalie change.
I’m trying to get rid of our comrade mates.
Let me know if there are any bugs for you, here.
Savoie, takes a penalty on the forecheck but, in the process spins himself in to the boards, skates first – down for a while and helped off without putting any weight on his right foot.
Condors PK gives one up 3 seconds in to their first chance.
Condors blow a long 5 on 3 PP (Kaldis is NOT good as the PP point guy) but not long after Bailey stops up on a 3 on 2, snaps one from the circles, it sneaks through the tender’s pads and Benson whacks it in to tie the game.
Canes with 3 goals in the third period to tie the game and then win it in OT – Kings blow the lead and only get one point.
Whew. I saw the score after 2 and thought tough luck for the Oilers that the Canes just had their worst period of the season so far. Glad the Canes showed up for the 3rd and OT. .
test
I was told there would be no tests.
Mark Letestube
Might be worthwhile to add blogspot to the list of verboten words…
I’m just spitballing and please please help me out the Sutter Mafiosa family passed the Hull family who had 3215 combined points. I can’t find the official tally for the Sutter’s? The Tkachuk Clan has 1754 Matt is 25 and Brady is 23 so if they don’t get injured they should be over 3000 combined family wise. Isn’t there another Tkachuk that put up a few points that is related to Keith? Anyhow I’m going to put a lime in my Corona and cheers the Hull, Hedberg and Nilisson line they were unbelievable to watch live and it’s been stated many times there is no Sather ingenuity to form the Greatest team in N.H.L History without viewing the magic of the Hull line.
I to went hockeydb to find this info and FYI, the Sutter Clan (Brandon, Brent, Brett, Brian, Brody, Duane, Darryl, Rich & Ron) combined tallied a grand total of 3,263 NHL regular season game points.
There are no other Tkachuk relatives who played in the NHL. You may have been thinking of Walt Tkaczuk, who played over 900 games for the Rangers, mostly in the 1970’s. Also, Dan Tkaczuk played under 20 games for the fLames in 2000.
Regarding Bobby Hull, I think the TSN article got the balance about right.
It spent a long time recounting Hull’s hockey achievements, which are many. (Hull’s WHA time often gets overlooked, as does Howe’s; Hull is either the third or fourth-best goal scorer of all time.). That is the main thrust of the article. For a sports site, that’s appropriate.
Near the end, but (importantly) not at the end, the article recounts several of Hull’s rather troubling off-ice actions and statements, in very objective, classic-journalism fashion. It doesn’t hide those off-ice actions, but nor does it dwell on them or make them the main story. I think that’s a good balance.
I think this approach is MUCH better than Sportsnet, which starts with a trigger warning, and then basically repeats over and over that Hull scored lots of goals BUT DO NOT FORGET that he was a terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad human being.
I come to sports sites for sports coverage. Is sports less important than politics? Yes. But I go visit political sites for political coverage.
To put it another way, is Lowetide justified in telling us to stick to sports, and to avoid the politics, on this blog? I believe he is. That’s probably why I visit here a lot more than I visit Sportsnet.
I read this whole thread.
I am so lost
We need a cheap shutdown style Centre that can win faceoffs. This Centre is out there Holland needs to use his charm and wit and quietly obtain him before the deadline.
I find Derek Ryan fascinating hes 36 nobody ever talks about him. Mr.Ryan is like a ghost he appears and disappears like a fart in the wind. If Ryan didn’t have brick hands he would be a 20 Goal scorer. Derek sure appears or floats with his tiny frame in A-1 sauce opportunity positions. Here’s to the Mr.Ryan’s in life we all know. Hurrah Hurrah.
Derek Ryan rules.
Derek Ryan rules,
Like a fart in the wind……..
Has a substantial impact, without knowing where it came from
Shawshank Redemption which I’ve seen many times because it’s a damn fine movie.
Brick hands? He has a career shooting percent of 12% and his 12.3% this season is in the top 3rd of forwards in the league. His hands aren’t the reason he isn’t a 20 goal scorer.
When your sporting a 12.3% on breakaways you have brick hands. If you identify from where every shot Ryan takes is coming from you might change your tune. Ryan gets a lot fantastic looks to the point of thinking to yourself how does this smaller undrafted 36 year-old always find himself all alone in front of the net.
Ryan has an individual expected goals of 6.89 and 7 goals scored……
Why don’t you supply the evidence on where his shot come from?
For all the “Oilers don’t need a top 6 forward” crowd.
Here are the top 6 scoring forwards for Colorado sorted by points per game
Mackinnon 1..4
Rantanen 1.2
Kadri 1.2
Landeskog 1.2
Burakovsky .83
Nichushkin .76
edmonton as of today
McDavid 1.8
Draisaitl 1.4
Hyman 1.2
RNH 1.2
Kane .78
McLeod .41
As of right now Hyman is our only forward who plays much RW who can piss a drop. Adding a difference maker up front is going to make this team tougher to defend than adding Kulikov 2.0 on the back end.
At some point Ken Holland has to make the decision that stockpiling the Reid Schaefers of the world isn’t going to help this team win a cup. Make a move for someone who moves the needle.
Those 6 forwards last year had a combined cap hit of $34.5 million, and Colorado couldn’t afford to keep 2 of them. Both Kadri and Burakovsky got raises to play elsewhere, Nichuskin got a big raise to stick around and MacKinnon’s salary is doubling next season. The 23/24 salary of those 6 will total ~$48 million. Colorado got lucky MacKinnon signed the cheap contract when he did.
I am not against a rental at the right price, but Meier and Horvat will not fit in Edmonton’s cap next season.
Lastly, you do realize the 6 players up top actually has the Oiler’s 6 scoring more than the Colorado 6 did last season and that overall, the Oilers this season are scoring goals at the exact same rate as Colorado did last season (3.75/gm).
I’ve never looked, but how do power play minutes per game compare during the regular season vs the playoffs?
Last year at 5v5 Colorado scored 3.04 g/60 (2.35 ga/60). Colorado was 4rth in the league at g/60 and 5th in the league in GF%/60.
This season, Edmonton is scoring 2.74 g/60 (2.54 ga/60). Edmonton is 9th in gf/60 and 14th in gf%/60.
It would appear that we would benefit from adding players to improve our 5v5 offense.
Last year, the Oilers actually averaged 5:11 on the PP during the playoffs (14th) and 4:35 during the regular season (24th).
And, of course, Colorado is very likely to add a second line centre before the deadline.
They better wake up then
They already have…7-3-0 in the last 10.
7-3 in their last 10
So my understanding, league wide, is that actual power play opportunities during the playoffs increase compared to regular season.
The perception that the refs swallow their whistles is due in large part to the fact that, well, the players commit more infractions overall and the refs don’t call everything. So even as PP opportunities increase, the gist of players being allowed to play also rings true.
It was true up until at least the Boston vs Vancouver final day of things.
It was ridiculous but has noticeably improved.
I expect the Oilers to finish higher than 9th in this regard by the end of the season. They have been trending very well in the last 2 months. Since Dec 1, a span of 27 games, the Oilers have a 5 on 5 goal differential of 3.07 GF/2.29 GA for a goal share of 57.26%. The goal share is 7th best in that time frame and the goals for is 4th. Their expected goal share is also 4th in the league so not out of line there.
Since the team really started to gel after the Xmas break (an inflection point referenced many times by Woodcroft), a span of 15 games, the team has 3.45 GF/2.13 GA per 60 for a goal share of 61.76%. The goal share is 3rd and the goals for are 2nd. And they are also 3rd in xGoal share, so again not some unsustainable luck, they have earned it.
It won’t go smoothly the rest of the season and injuries can disrupt things too, but I don’t think it is at all unreasonable at this time to assume the Oilers last 32 games will more resemble the recent 27 games than the first 23.
I appreciate the dates like Dec 1 and Dec 25 are arbitrary break points but absent some 5 games moving average trend they seemed like decent break points to measure the Oilers improvements 5 on 5 as the season has been progressing.
Oops on basically duplicating your post! I’m just catching up and seeing it now. I agree obviously.
FWIW, over the last 25 games (picked a random number here, about half the season, and longer than their current hot streak) the Oilers are #2 in GF/60 (3.12) (and 2.28GA/60) and #6 in GF% (57.8%) at 5v5.
That compares favourably to Colorado’s 3.04 GF/60 and 56.4%GF last season. Not sure the Oilers can keep it up, but I think the 5v5 play/results in the last 25 games is more representative than the first 24.
Yeah, they couldn’t keep all of them, but they won a cup. Banners fly forever. I’m not concerned with keeping Meier for next year (he’s in a completely different tier than Bo Horvat). Even as a total rental, he’s a significant add up from. If we are worried about the future, I think you could move out Kane and both of the non-performers on RW to try keep Meier (pie in the sky). You can move out players to add better players.
Colorado also replaced Burakovsky’s production for 2 million with Evan Rodrigues. Ken Holland is paying 6.3 million in KY and JP for less production than they are with 2x and have 7.2 million in space to make another addition to address 2C at the deadline.
Ken Holland is paying 10 million to Foegele, Puljujarvi, and Yamamoto. This is why we can’t have nice things ;).
Now, you do realize Colorado finished 4th and 5th in 5v5 GF/60 and GF% last season, right? Edmonton is tracking to finish 9th and 14th this season. That team was more efficient at 5v5. If you want to argue our forward depth being stronger than they were last season, go for it. Find your best pair of rose-coloured glasses and give it a go.
Are most of the Oiler fans on this blog to afraid to trade prospects and draft picks this late into McDavid and Drai’s tenure?
Pointing out facts is rose-colored glasses? Where did I say the Oilers can’t trade prospects and draft picks? Where did I say that the Oilers forward depth was stronger? On that second one – I merely pointed out the facts based on the info you provided. No value judgement was made. Your post that I responded to was all about points per game – not one word about 5 on 5 – so you have now moved the goal posts.
Another fact pointed out elsewhere – Kane has a newly signed a full NMC – he isn’t going anywhere. You just want to gloss over that in trading him away.
And lastly, I pointed out elsewhere in today’s blog that even if you trade Foegele, Puljujarvi and Yamamoto’s salaries (only $8.85 million – not $10 million), the Oilers reasonably cannot fit a Forsberg level contract under the cap next season.
None of this says the Oilers can’t try and get anyone they can fit under this years cap for a rental to improve the team for this year’s run.
Fair point, I forgot Ken Holland gives near everyone an NMC.
So bringing up how much stronger their forward group is at 5v5 in a post about there being room for improvement in their top 6, is moving the goalposts? I used points per game because I figured it’s the easiest way to show the drop off in talent at the tail end of Edmontons bottom 6. certainly not where the argument ends. I suppose a post about adding a pending UFA at the deadline and bringing up trying to fit him under the cap next season fits in the “moving of the goalposts” description then. Nowhere in my original post did I bring up signing that player for next year.
Lol, wut?
Even aside from the NMC, Meier >> Kane? Really?
Yeah by eye test for sure and the numbers give him an edge as well. Another big reason would be him being 5 or 6 years younger.
Kane’s $5.1M deal runs for 3 more seasons. Meier is going to get paid $8M+ for term; they’ll be the same age when their deals end.
And there is no numbers edge. Kane has a slightly higher points/game over the last 5 seasons (back to include Meier’s first good season). When they were both Sharks, Kane played more and scored more. In terms of fancies on the same team, Meier had the better SF% but Kane the better GF% over their three seasons as teammates. This is ignoring the physical presence intangibles the Kane adds.
Meier is an excellent player, but there’s no way in hell he’s worth $3M more than Kane over the next few seasons.
Great observation.
Clearly Bob Stauffer is enamoured with Sam Lafferty, gotta like the effort, be he is not a Center and he doesn’t have a history of scoring. He would be a slightly better Josh Archibald, but would still be a 4th line winger on this team.
For those who didn’t hear it, Bob bet Mark Lazarus of the Athletic- Chicago, that Lafferty will fetch a 2nd rounder, Lazarus quickly accepted that bet.
Does he add to the Oilers roster, yes, is he worth a 2nd. Hell Naw.
He might fetch a 4th with another player added. Shore or McKegg, maybe?
He will get more than a 4th for sure and keep in mind the Oilers don’t have a 2023 4th.
I threw up some data and analysis on the the most-discussed depth forwards here:
https://lowetide.ca/2023/01/30/doing-the-splits-2/#comment-1186278
Note the extra year for Lafferty, who plays mostly 3RW (not 4) for the Hawks at EVs. But still takes a lot of PK FOs, an Oiler need. He’s also the fastest of the bunch with the best motor. His O lags the others though.
Understood.
4th liner in E-town, I meant
It’s the second year that has Bob thinking a 2nd rounder is my guess. That and likely interest from value-seekers like the Lightning who love the extra year of cap certainty. We, of course, would want that held to a 3rd, but who knows if the Hawks would take that for a useful 3RWer they have signed for another year and likely to have other bidders.
So he is basically Derek Ryan but Ryan is better and a center?
Acciari is the play IMO and even more so if foegle can be added. Physical, pk, rh faceoffs over 50%.
If you can do foegle plus a 3rd for acciari is it worth it to fill a hole now and the cap space next year?
Acciari looks the best by the numbers to my eye.
Evolving Hockey has Acciari at the 26th percentile overall for the past 3 years. His current year rating is 53rd percentile. 53rd percentile is reasonably good for a bottom sixer.
He does play PK1 and 3rd line minutes at 5v5. This year, he’s almost at 2nd line minutes.
I don’t recall watching him much. He’s pretty heavy for 5’10” though. 5’10” and 210 is an interesting combo.
Bjugstad who’s 6’6″ weighs the same as Acciari. He plays PK2 and just makes the cutoff for 3rd line minutes on EH’s charts. They have Bjugstad at the 20th percentile. His current year is 35.
Acciaria’s rated a little better, plays higher up the lineup, and higher up the PK minutes but his cap is also higher ($1.66m).
Either one could help by adding cheap depth.
For what we want there is little comparison besides Bjugstad is big.
On a 3 year pull from stat trick..
Acciari has played twice the pk min with over a goal better in ga/60
Acciari is far better in face offs
Bjugsad is about 25% better 5v5 scoring
Acciari takes half the penalties and draws twice as many as he takes while Bjugstpad is a net negative in pim.
Acciari hits 33% more and blocks almost 3 times the shots.
What was Bob’s bet with Mark Lazarus? Was it for a Mediterranean Chicken pizza?
Lol, no terms discussed publicly. Someone could inquire on Twitter, I suppose
Seravalli: Oilers were fielding calls and interest on Pujo before Yams went down and were ready to make a move, but that injury allowed them to punt the ball and delay any decision or move.
The fact that Yamamoto now has had recurring concussions would make me think that they should consider moving him before JP.
It was so obvious in the off season to trade Yamo he was one of the few parlay chips we had. Now we’re stuck with him for another year of 3 million cap unless he stays on LTIR. Yamo is a utility winger second PP on 10-15 teams he can be spotted in the top 6 when injuries hit kinda like a Mark Bonnyville Letestu. Yamo is not a top 6 winger on a Stanley Cup team.
Makes me think that they can’t.
Who wants an overpaid third line winger with continuing concussion issues?
Michael Ferland. The Canucks medical staff was sleeping at the wheel on this player.
Seravalli thinking Meier might end up with NYR instead of Kane. Lots of interest in Meier apparently for those teams with space and a top 6 need (ie, not us).
I’d be more interested in packaging up for Meier if I’m going hunting
Yamamoto player
1st pick
Lavoie prospect
I still like foegle + for bjugstad. I won’t argue he’s the best choice simply that is one of most likely places to pay dump a player and get a servicable bottom 6 player on ideal cap hit back.
Don’t qualify puj in offseason
Foegle 2.75
Yam 3.1
Puj 3.0
Should be enough to sign Meir even if it’s just to choke up qualifying 10 mill to extend 1 more year…a 2 year rental.
Meier has optimal value and pretty much ideal RW.
Hyman McDavid meier
Kane drai puj
Kostin rnh janmark/ryan
Holloway McLeod ryan/bjugstad
Add a marc staal or schenn cap level extra Dman hope goalie catches lightning in bottle and you have pretty smooth highway in front leading to possibilities of making finals.
I dont see any good reason not to really go for it if there’s a chance to this year.
There’s also a lot worse problems than having a 6’1″ 220 lbs dominant top RW signed for 29- 33 year old seasons after McDavid contract ends – if extended to a 7 year deal.
Timelines
2 years after this drai needs massive increase
3 years after McDavid
5 years likekly Bubble burst completely the last couple years of nurse/rnh/Hyman deals
Get a cup before drai’s contract up I think changes conversation.
In looking at whether the Oilers could pursue Horvat, if the Islanders don’t sign him, or Meier’s, I thought a snap shot of next season’s cap situation would be helpful to see what the Oilers could afford if the plan was more than a rental. At forward, I am starting with just the big 5, adding the 5 full time D currently committed to for next season and the 2 goalies, to see what is left over and then dropped in a salary for Horvat or Meier at what some think they will get.
23/24 cap hits in millions:
CMD 12.500
Drai 8.500
Hyman 5.500
RNH 5.125
Kane 5.125
Top 5 Fwd Total 36.750
Nurse 9.250
Barrie 4.500
Ceci 3.250
Kulak 2.750
Broberg 0.863
5 – Signed D Total 20.613
Campbell 5.000
Skinner 2.600
Goalie – Total 7.600
Dead Cap 1.917*
Total – 12 players 66.880
Meier or Horvat 8.000
Total – 13 players 74.880
Cap Ceiling: 83.5
Cap Room: 8.620
Avail per – roster @ 23 0.862
Avail per – roster @ 20 1.231
The dead cap hit assumes no bonus overages from this season. Looking like it might come in around $500,000 so that would reduce all the available room numbers listed below it.
All of Yamamoto, Jesse, and Foegele would have to go just in hopes of getting to a 20 man roster at very low salaries. There would be no room for a raise for Bouchard, MacLeod or Kostin. Move out any of Kulak, Barrie or Ceci to make room and your just having to replace them with lower salaried D anyway.
Without trading Leon, there is no way Holland runs his team like this next season. And on top of that, neither Horvat nor Meier will be good deals at the cap hit they are likely to get anyway. Even at $5 million for another forward, the team would be at half the cap for just 6 forwards and no money to move for several seasons.
Thank you. I don’t like pooping on anyone’s dreams but adding a non-need top 6 player at large salary just doesn’t make any sense.
When you’re trying to win a Stanley, adding another elite forward doesn’t hurt their chances
Of course it does. These moves don’t happen in a vacuum and the window is larger than just this spring.
How does adding another elite player make this team worse? Feel free to enlighten me.
Don’t think Horvat is elite….
I was referring to Meier. Horvat is mid
Even more a case if going big just for 1 year might as well be meier as his rfa rights will be tradable.
Meier at half cap hit should be able to reacquire at least 1st rounder and likely prospect in summer
Thanks for this shouldn’t have been lazy and did cap math before posting about signing meier beyond this year before I posted above.
Meier at a Filip Forsberg type contract would have more value than RNH, Evander Kane, Darnell Nurse.
elite 5v5 guy. He would be a huge add and significantly improve this teams ability to ice two great lines.
the play is to add him for this cup run regardless and try and flip his RFA rights to recoup some of his cost
I never said they didn’t have the cap room as a rental this season. Maybe they would with the right deal. But my point was he is not affordable on an ongoing basis.
And in no way is Timo Meier at $8.5 million a better deal than RNH is at $5.1 million. Kane produced at rates at least equal to Meier when he was in San Jose. And the OIlers need Nurse way more than they need what Meier would add.
And any comparison of Meier’s future contract to the value of those you listed is moot anyway, since all 3 have full NMC and are not going anywhere.
The only way you believe this is if you’ve fallen head over heels for RNH running a powerplay induced heater. He’s a mediocre centre at even strength. Why do you think his 30’s are going to be better than the rest of Meier’s 20’s?
RNH doesn’t necessarily have to be better or even as good for my statement to be true. Paying Meier $8.5 million is 167% of RNH’s contract. I believe people in only wanting to focus on 5 on 5 scoring greatly under values special teams in the NHL – it accounts for 20 to 23% of the goals scored in the NHL and when a player is very good at both it is a huge bonus.
And Nuge’s power play numbers are not just some heater. Yes is having his best year, but he has always been a PP savant. He has 224 PP points in 769 game and he has average 32 PP points per 82 the last 5 seasons. His points per 60 on the PP over the last 5 seasons are ~6.7 per 60 vs Meier at 4.7 per 60. He has been the 3rd most important part of the best power play in the NHL the last 4 seasons and one of the best in league history. In the last 3 seasons, the first unit power play has scored at an unheard of rate of 13.48 goals per 60 with Connor, Leon and RNH together for 600 minutes, in the 110 minutes with Leon and Connor without RNH mostly due to injuries, its success rate was only 8.23 goals per 60. There are similar drops if Connor is off or Leon is off, but that totals only 25 minutes in 2 seasons. So all 3 are important to that power play.
Hopkins has also been a pretty consistent quality penalty killer for several years now. Meier doesn’t kill penalties. Nuge spends a much time on the PK per season as Meier has in his whole career (and Meier’s pk time was mostly between 2018-2020). That has value.
Meier has had only one season in the last 5 where he has scored more points per game than RNH and that was last season (.99 to ,79) and one season where they were the same (18/19 at .85) the other 3 went Nuge’s way 19/20, 20/21 and this year. In total over the last 5 seasons, RNH has scored at .88 ppg and Meier .82 and its getting wider so far this season.
I believe RNH has the talent and skill to be a high level all around player well into his 30s and will be worth more than his contract for almost all of it. Meier is an excellent player, but I wouldn’t bet on him being worth $8.5 for his whole contract, and even if he is worth his contract, I certainly don’t expect him to outperform that value by as much as RNH will out perform his.
Having a $4 5M 3rd pairing defenseman isn’t a very efficient use of your available space though. Replace Barrie with Desharnais and you magically have enough money to re-sign Bouchard to a 3 year bridge AND Meier to a long-term contract.
However, the team might be better served going after ROR. He likely signs a contract similar to Evander Kane’s, which would be a boon to the Oilers.
I’m under no illusions that Holland will land Meier or similar, but to opine that it cannot be done if just plain false.
I agree with ArmchairGM here. It wouldn’t be that difficult to fit in another high end forward or Dman going forward. I can’t get to $8M, but $7M would be doable IMO.
It would require not re-signing Puljujarvi, and trading Barrie and Foegele, but that’s it for major moves. Armchair brough up ROR, so to use him as an example at $7M (only an example!), the Oilers roster could look like:
Kane-McDavid-Draisaitl
Nuge-ROR-Hyman
Holloway-McLeod-Yamamoto
Kostin-Ryan-(900k forward)
(800k forward)
—
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Bouchard
Broberg-Desharnais
Niemalainen
—
Campbell-Skinner
This is:
ROR or other $7M
McLeod $1.5M
Kostin $1.0M
Bouchard $3.0M
Bonus overages of $500k
There’s only about 40k in cap space, and a 22 man roster, though I also think it’s possible that Bouchard, McLeod and Kostin end up coming in under $5.5M in total.
I think that looks like a pretty reasonable roster actually. It’s not a total dogs breakfast in the bottom 6, even though you’ve theoretically added another top 6 forward.
Whether there’s someone available where a scenario make sense is another question, but I do think it is among the reasonable possibilities.
Going in the season with less than a full roster and $40K of cap space – I don’t think this is an ideal plan.
As you like. I’d have no issue with it if you can add another high end player to the group.
The forwards are better but the D is even worse with Barrie out and Bouchard in a feature role. I don’t think 2 rookies and Bouchard can get the job done in the playoffs. Maybe not even in the first round.
Yeah, this was just an illustration that the Oilers could add a player beyond this season with a cap hit up to $7M.
They likely won’t, and if they did it could as easily be a defenseman as a forward.
Trading either of the AB’s would be poor assessment
Bouch makes mistakes but D play can be learned, his wild skill not
I see a lot of metrics that show him well, Bro is really good now despite some wobbles
I haven’t seen any metrics that show Barrie well, except his evens goal share this season
He’s a good distributor on PP. I don’t see him as above an average puck mover, and he makes plenty of mistakes in the D zone, he just has been getting away with it, Bouch sees a red flasher every time he does, I think we’ll see regression for both
If you can get a better and more consistent LD than Kulak do that and Bjug bcs there is a hole where he plays
The B’s not the ABs
You know you can edit your post for five minutes, right? You don’t need to keep posting follow ups with corrections.
It’s the gear on the bottom right of your post, in case you were unaware.
So we’re not sorting players by blood type then? 😀
C
No one here must be familiar with the ongoing Jack Benny/Mel Blanc (voice of Bugs Bunny) skit.
Was watching it on YouTube this weekend…
For reference:
https://youtu.be/Gy1ztCTrBEU
Here I thought is was a reference to Oscar Klefbom’s torso.
His 5v5 GF% for the last 10 seasons has been:
58.7%
55.5%
50.0%
37.5% (Colorado last overall)
51.9%
53.1%
49.2% (Toronto)
52.4%
54.0%
53.9%
He’s been very good at getting away with it. I don’t think we should expect regression from Barrie.
Kostin has played well and really added to the Oilers bevy of quality third line players.
Big Vince has also played well, given more reps and more confidence, can he fill that need for some size and grit by April?
And can Holloway also be projected as a trusted contributor in the middle mix?
To me, Broberg and Bouchard, while coming on now, still represent the biggest question mark.
With all this in mind, the number one add must be a top 4 d man who can make a difference, a substantial difference. I don’t know who this is but Im hoping it is a surprisingly good player who pops up unexpectedly. I think this is where the assets go, the biggest risk/reward. But if its not substantial, I would not be willing to part with much for a 20% upgrade.
If possible, go hunting some forwards with high end motors, who will be available to sign for next year for less than 1.5M. My example was Hoglander, but take your pick. There will definitely be a need to find 4some inexpensive talent to fill the gap between Holloway and Bourgault. (particularly if the Bourg is traded!)
.
One has to run Broberg and Bouchard in the playoffs as a kid pair regardless. They need the experience. The only way to get experience is to play. Or one has the same problem next year.
A lot has changed (hopefully in a sustainable manner) since the team was floundering in December.
Call-ups for Broberg and Desharnais and a return to 11-7, along with the forwards starting to pay more attention to their defensive assignments, has this team playing really well (basically they are now playing up to what we expected to see them look like at the start of the season).
Is this a mirage?
I have to agree with godot10 – if we don’t play these kids, then we’ll never know and we’ll be repeating the process all over again next year.
If Holland can upgrade Kulak, then that would be ideal. But the likes of McCabe and Edmundson are not material upgrades, and would be a terrible waste of future resources. Gavrikov is a real wild card … the pro scouts will earn their money on that one. I think it depends on what his agent is looking for this summer as well. Provorov is available too, but Philly would have to retain some cap hit.
The cost for Chychrun is reportedly astronomical – this is an injury-prone defenseman with no playoff experience, who’s racking up points in low-pressure games that no one expects the Yotes to win. Pass.
Agree with the above, especially what you and Godot are saying about playing Bro-chard now.
Of the defensemen rumoured to be available Provorov is as close to ideal as I can think of. Playing the bulk of his minutes against elite competition on a weak team, and absolutely killing it against middle comp. Him as 2LD on our team would be incredible.
Wonder what he’d cost with retention. Kulak, Kemp, a pick, plus what else?
Kulak, Foegele + a first round pick in 2023 for Provorov with 1-2 million of retention.
Both the player and the Flyers are looking to move on. He’s a devalued asset … the Flyers tend to do this with their D-men. They also tend to sell low. Due diligence would be needed before bringing him in (e.g. is he a diva or is he being scapegoated and run out of town the way they did to Ghost-bear).
That’s along the lines of what I had in mind for value, it’s possible the retention would cost more due to being for this season and two more.
A cursory look at his fancies from PuckIQ and NST show he’s doing well in his role but could benefit from better QoT and lesser QoC.
Reading some Flyers blogs it seems like he was drafted to the be a franchise defenseman but wasn’t surrounded with enough to develop and flourish (sounds familiar). Word is frustration has taken over and he wants out and so do many of his teammates.
Im not sacrificing the potential win for their experience. Bring them along, they might shine, but if they don’t, you are caught with your pants down.
And just because they gain experienced for next year, won’t lessen the sting.
Its fun particularly on the lowtide to believe in the newbs. But Im taking Barrie and Kulak pairing all day over the rooks.
Prospectorado!
66.7% of the Dub Oilers prospects are in action this night.
It took Chiasson a while to pot his first Sassytoon goal, but he did it his last time out. Meanwhile, Schaefer’s hot start is a distant memory now, having scored just 6 goals his past 21 GP.
Saskatoon (Chiasson) @ 6 p.m.
Seattle (Schaefer) @ 8 p.m.
Both times, as usual, are Warrensville time.
Foegele, Puljujarvi, and the 2014 1st for Anderson (50% retained) and Edmundson and a 2013 4th.and the 2014 7th back.
More ideally. It would be two deals. One for McCabe and one for Anderson (50% retained). It would cost more, and Edmonton might be on McCabe’s NTC.
The Oilers 2014 1st was Draisital so I’m not okay with this deal.
My fingers type 201X. My brain sees 202X. I seem to be having this problem at the moment.
Edmundson is toast. Anderson has a terrible contract even at %50.
I like to call Anderson The Useless One. He will do literally nothing for shifts, periods, games at a time. And then will pop in the odd goal or two.
Many posters on this blog really really hate Leon’s body language and compete some games.
Anderson won’t be long for this City the way he plays.
Also check out his playoff stat-line on the Habs Cinderella Team….
oilers do NOT need edmundson. he is not good at hockey. look at georges larauque comments on him. his back is ready to blow.
If I can send kulak instead of puj and swap 1st to 2nd & 3rd I’d debate it.
Why on earth would you want two overpriced, injury prone players?
I don’t understand the interest in these two players.
I can somewhat maybe get on board with Anderson at half retained but, really, nah, I don’t want the player at all. His current contract may be the worst in the NHL (which we knew on the day it was signed) – half off makes is palatable but I don’t want the player.
Edmundson inserted in the lineup over any current D makes the team worse, in my opinion.
So… who’s going to the All Star Game for the Dys?
Elias Pettersson.
I believe that is what is called a rhetorical question, my dude.
So was my answer.
Answering a rhetorical question suggests you do not fully grasp the purpose of the device, amigo.
Will there be no end to the rhetorical questions?
If you have to ask the question…
C
I can see Demko ending up in Buffalo….
With Timo Meier rumoured to be available, does it make more sense to add an impact winger to play RW than it does to add a mediocre defensemen?
Ken Holland and his staff are rumoured to believe that Broberg is going to be a better/similar impact player to Chychrun by the deadline. Gavrikov might look better in a easier role in Edmonton but I’m not sure he’s much of an upgrade over what we have already. Does creating 2 very strong lines push us further than working around the edges of the roster?
The whole “Lou flipping Horvat” talk has me wondering whether it would be a good idea to try and pick up Meier at salary retained, plant him next to Connor or Leon, and then potentially flip his RFA rights at the draft. The risk comes with spending our available assets on a winger instead of a 3C or D.
I really liked what (I think) Drai said about Colorado. “The come at you in waves”. It could mean picking up a top line playoff winger for essentially free, or if he shows well in the playoffs, we could even turn a profit in assets. Now that would be some creative GMing.
Yup. He’s an elite forward, great at 5v5, good defensive metrics, shoots a ton, hits a ton, skates well. If you’re going to push for a cup, you might as well add someone that moves the needle.
seems like Holland will add around the edges, not the core. Next year he has decisions to make in order to fit everyone salary wise (Bouchard, Yamo and Puljujarvi extensions). And Foegele is pricey. and if Yamo comes off IR they need to move one of Jesse or Foegele to keep the roster intact.
Bjugstad and Schenn seem like the adds to me. 3/4 RH C and depth Dman with some grit and experience. Low salary (key with the tight cap issues).
And they’ll move one of Foegele or Puljujarvi for a pick (could even use that pick to add to someone like Shore to get Bjugstad).
Keeps the first. Keeps the prospects.
Kane. McDavid. Hyman
Nuge. Drasiatl. Yamamoto
Foegele. McLeod. Janmark
Kostin. Bjugstad. Ryan
Nurse. Ceci
Schenn. Bouchard.
Kulak. Barrie
Not sure that’s enough, but I sincerely doubt Holland makes a big splash with prices being high and the real additions needed being depth guys. ideally he gets a true 2LD, but I can’t see it. McCabe would be ideal. But I just doubt he pulls the trigger at what the cost will be.
I’m not sure about a 33 year old Luke Schenn playing 2LD as a RHD
I agree completely. But I just expect to see it. gritensity. cup winner. vet. tough. PK. lots to “sell” regardless if it isn’t what we need.
LT has taught us to read the tea leaves.
The Desharnais audition is screaming “what would this roster look like with a rugged 3rd pair right-handed defenseman like Luke Schenn?”
Except that Desharnais and Broberg are playing well enough that the answer to the defence issues is becoming more apparent to be in-house already.
Stop thinking about it in terms of a traditional 12-6 alignment. This team plays better with the 11-7 alignment. This allows Woodcroft the ability to sprinkle McDavid and Draisaitl throughout the forward lines to avoid hard matching by the other teams coach, and allows for Manson to identify which D is having an off night and play the 6 that are going well.
I think this roster looks pretty good with a rugged 3rd pair right-handed defenseman like Vincent Desharnais. I can see a depth defenseman added for one of our B or C-level prospects to add some veteran insurance.
If the Oilers play like they are capable of, and as long as there is not a major injury to any of the top players, I could see Holland standing pat with this roster at the deadline. The talk show hosts will hate this and try to stir up some vitriol, but I’ll be completely fine with it.
I also think that the players Holland and the pro scouts are targeting are completely different from the ones we are talking about here (e.g. none of us had Kulak on the radar last year). Most of the rumours out there is just spit-balling by bloggers.
For the record, I wouldn’t trade for Luke Schenn. I wasn’t referring to my opinion. Grittensity, cup rings, reputation, these things often cost far more than they’re worth for NHL GMs, particularly at the trade deadline.
I just meant that Holland calling up Desharnais looks like the Oilers were wondering how he might fit in that spot.
Holland really likes his vets.
Am I the only one who envisions Holland scratching his head wondering how Schenn might look on our bottom pairing and then thinking of calling up Desharnais to get an idea?
Yamamoto is signed thru next season at $3.1. Meanwhile a Puljujarvi extension seems very, very unlikely.
The McLeod extension is worth adding to that list though. He did the club a big favour this year, is apt to be a priority this summer upcoming.
This is why I favour trading Yamo or Foegele at the deadline – I’d prefer to get their contracts off the books. Jesse will not be qualified next season. This cleans up the cap sheet going into next summer. None of these three players have added much this year … their loss will not materially affect the Oiler’s fortunes.
There will be bargain available in UFA next summer. I’d like us to have some cap space to take advantage of this, and get McLeod and Bouchard extended.
Can’t see Oilers trading Foegele for a pick. His contract has negative value. Wish it wasn’t so.
No one expects Holland to get a pick for Foegele. Best we can hope for is Foegele + a pick to get an upgrade at F or D who’s contract is up after this season.
“Take it to the limit” by Suzy Bogguss off of the Common Thread album(all c&w covers of the Eagles) was top drawer music.
The Islanders will immediately work to extend Horvat.
https://www.audacy.com/wfan/sports/islanders/islanders-now-hope-to-sign-bo-horvat-to-contract-extension
Horvat is represented by Newport as are 5 other Islander players so there is a great deal of familiarity with the agent.
Friedman saying this morning he thinks this will get done quickly at around 8X$ 8 million.
Friedman and Marek also thinking there’s a very good chance Demko gets moved before the deadline.
They see LA, Buffalo and Pittsburgh as potential landing spots.
Why is Seattle not in on this.
they are a decent goalie away from being decent
Meh…his bubble burst. I hope he stays in the division.
i dont see Horvat being flipped at the deadline ! He was brought in as a long term solution ; if he chooses to resign
Interesting to see how Horvat performs on the Islanders or elsewhere, if they don’t sign him for that amount, going forward. He is having a career season in more ways that one. Prior to this season, he had a career best 15.9% shooting percentage and an average close 13.1 % before this season. This season, he has had 21.7% shooting percentage. Since Jan 1, he has cooled off somewhat with 5 goals in his last 13 games and only 2 in his last 10. To be fair a tumultuous time on the Canucks.
He also won’t be playing with the same level of offensive talent either. He played with Miller a lot and either Garland or Boeser as the 3rd on the line. And on D, he either had OEL or Hughes getting the puck up to him. He was also on the first PP with Elias, Miller, Kuzmenko and Hughes which is considerably better than Barzal, Nelson, Lee and Dobson,
Good for Horvat if he gets that kind of salary, but he will be very challenged to live up to it.
Yep…I expect his offense to dip significantly.
Rutherford dodged a bullet IMO.
Ya he dodged a bullet and it hit Alvin
It’s crazy how Bo wanted to be a Canuck for life and the Canucks org. ghosted him for months and traded him right before he is supposed to represent their team at the All Star game, a month before the trade deadline.
And then the Islanders come in who are willing to give the former Canucks captain the Miller contract right off the hop.
And all the Canucks got in return was “the equivalent of 3 first round picks” without the benefit of actually getting 3 first round picks.
Hilarious.
If Lou’s team goes on a run like the 20 & 21, it will be a very late first round pick for the Canucks. However, I don’t see Lane Lambert getting out of the team what Trotz was able to in those seasons. Lou made 19 coaching changes in his 28 seasons in New Jersey and only Lemaire and near the end of his tenure DeBoer made it past 160 games in any one stretch. Firing Trotz may end up being the coaching change he regrets the most.
Beauvillier may have been a first rounder, but at this point in his career, he no longer looks like one, and straight up would not likely net 1st in a trade. And while Raty had been touted as a first round pick, he did drop to 52, and in Wheeler’s most recent estimate, (this month), he is probably still value at that level, but not a lot of upside.
Pronman ranked him #96 in his Under 23 rankings…2 spots behind Xavier Bourgault who, as you know was a 1st round pick.
Pronman had Laine ranked ahead of Matthews leading up to the 2016 draft.
True story.
I hadnt even considered Lou flipping Horvat with retained salary but that is genius.
Talking about Horvat as a rental is one thing, but talk of trading Bouchard + for an extended Horvat is an interesting thought experiment.
LT – this is continuing on from speculation that Draisaitl would be sailing on, Kelowna Rocket/Prince Albert Raider?
Otherwise, it seems that we would be making an additional hole in our D corpse when we’ve invested a bunch of time in finding a long-term RHD in Bouchard.
We have 5 forwards scoring at 1st line rates. Do we really need to add Horvat to that mix? If we can do it without sacrificing the D, so be it, but to me it’s the D and G that are the shakiest part of this roster.
Bouchard may not become the true #1 d-man we had hoped, but then, I believe we had this same argument with Jeff Petry.
Right handed D are Gold. How many years were we looking fo a RH D? We tried a lot of Bums over the last dozen years at RH. Please don’t make me say one of the names out load it gives me the creeps when I utter his name. Bouchard wasn’t drafted by Holland which ups the possibility of a trade from 10% to 17.5%
5 forwards scoring at first line rates? Who’s the 5th?
Evander Kane. His points per game and per 60 for the season are in the top 96 in the NHL among forwards.
The idea of trading for Horvat got me thinking – how much value would there be trading for the best available centre, just to make sure the Avs don’t get him? 2C is by far the team’s biggest hole.
I don’t think Horvat will be available at the trade deadline. I look at the Isles roster and he is likely their second best forward. Horvat either gets them to the playoffs, or keeps them close enough that trading him is not an option.
I wouldn’t be shocked if the Isles resign him either. Their cap situation is weird. They have a bunch of cap space available, yet they have six meh forwards all signed long term to $5 mill or more. It doesn’t look like a roster built for trading out players at the deadline.
At first I thought this was a win-win for the Isles, but Vancouver got decent value for the player. 2023 is a deep draft so the 16th has real value. And the two players have real value as well.
Reading a number of rumours — or perhaps the same one recycled in the echo chamber — of Horvat having a 7x $8.5 million offer from the Isles.
massive overpay…
He’s going to get paid coming off a season of (or near) 50 goals. Its a clear outlier season and the question is if the GMs will recognize it as such or pay based off of it (like they did with Kadri and Huburdeau)…..
Can someone please tell me what’s Vincents weakness is? I think Charlie did a hell of a job teaching him in the A.
puck skills are good; i never seen any mobility issues yet; i am waiting to see the bloom off the rose but nothing yet!
Hard to see his glaring weaknesses when slotted so appropriately. They should give him harder opponents so its more obvious. Coaching staff need to learn from past efforts at transparency.
When Leon and Mcdavid contracts are a year out where they can resign it’s either sign them are trade them. You can have a off-season bidding war if you wait like the Kanucks did you end up getting the shaft. It’s not the old days where Blockbuster trades happen with this capped out N.H.L.
The Oilers will either keep both and continue to be competitive for years to come, or if they ask to leave, trade them the summer before to reload.
As much as I love the idea of Horvat as a bargain rental, and I like it a lot, a C is not what this team is lacking to put them over the top.
As we discussed ad infinitum, the club needs a minute munching Dman that can push the bulk of the D Corps one step down the depth chart. If the guy can consistently laser a breakout pass, all the better.
Take It To The Limit, one of my all time favorite Eagles songs… unfortunately Meisner didn’t feel the same way
Didn’t Meisner hate it because he had to hit that high note at the end every night?
I think it’s the only No. 1 hit by the Eagles not featuring Henley or Frey singing lead. Timothy B. Schmidt on “I can’t tell you why” might have hit No. 1 as well.
All great songs.
Because the idiots never released “Pretty Maids” as a single, lol…
All due respest to our host, who has to get eyeballs on pixels, the last thing Holland will be doing is spending assets on a scoring forward he can’t re-sign..
I think this is a reasonable topic. Honestly, during the season the number of eyeballs on a specific non-game day doesn’t change much at all. My January to January reads are going to come in within 5,000 of last Jan. I genuinely think it’s worth discussing. That doesn’t mean you have to agree, but that was my motivation.
Do you still have fishermen in Asia thinking they are googling low tide charts?
Always good to hear the blog is doing well. It’s a long stretch between games, we gotta talk about something, and no doubt a segment of Oiler Nation will be thinking about the Horvat trade in that way.
I look at this as an opportunity to remedy such thinking… 😉
Yes – it’s the same argument used yesterday regarding Timo Meier. The Oilers have 5 top 6 forwards using up -$37 million in cap space. They really can’t add any where close to what either Horvat or Meier would want in salary next season, at least without trading Leon (the only one whose contract allows them to trade him at all to only 10 teams). I wouldn’t expect that at all nor would I advocate it.
Yeah, I’d put the odds at the Oilers looking at either (or ROR or Tarasenko etc) at somewhere around 1% for each of the high-scoring Fs.
I don’t think that’s all together true. If edmonton moved jp and yams, they could probably slide horvat in. The bottom six would be Holloway McLeod Fogel kostin Ryan and say hablin, not great but serviceable.
That wouldn’t be enough. We need to move JP, just to make this year’s cap hit work, assuming Yams will return and there will be a couple of TD depth additions.
It depends on McLeod and Bouchards next contract. I’m not saying it will happen, but if Kenny wants to add a top 6 forward, or Karlsson with some retention he could make it work.
Yes, by decimating the existing roster. Nuge, if he could be traded, would be a likely casualty. Nuge and Yams would get you to $8M. But Nuge can’t be traded.
Barrie can be traded, but is cap is going to go to Boosh and McLeod. you seem to be advising one year deals for both, but that ends up with you signing a Nurse style contract down the road.
The gymnastics required to make this work makes it clear it won’t happen. GMs don’t tear apart contending teams.
Talking about the biggest trade of the year and how Holland could acquire the same player at a good cap hit seems a reasonable topic, no?
If by reasonable you mean, “not a target and will never happen and no way LL will trade offense now that he’s finally acquired after a year and half of fan upset,” then I am in full agreement. Because reasonable would be the acknowledgement that we don’t have the need, we don’t have the cap space, and LL is not going to do something stupid.
Holland probably won’t trade any of the guys who’ve yet to suit up in three NHL seasons… seems sorta dangerous and very against the tide of his Red Wing days (so weird that Oiler fans who once salivated over a slow boil are now ready to trade everyone under 24 especially when the prospect cupboard isn’t overflowing with RHD and Smooth skating Swedish LHD.
Everyone is really paranoid about the Bouch deal but can’t we discuss the extremely reasonable contracts for everyone not named Nurse? Bouchard’s resume is longer than than McLeod’s but not that much and the ups, downs and giveaways will surely come up in those contract talks. Kenny is a Grinder after all. Bouch is below Barrie, maybe $500k ahead of Kulak.
By deadline day the Oilers will have at least a six point lead in the Pacific so why mess up a team that’s taking you to the dance in style? Prepare for an insanely boring trade. Maybe a Kulak like add, someone a bit better than Brassard. That’ll be about it. Like the Bugstadt idea sorta.
PS – Rutherford sucks at managing NHL hockey teams 😉
The team is pretty good as you say. This is why I wouldn’t tinker around the edges. Another 3rd pairing D or 4th line forward isn’t going to add much other than depth. IMO its either standpat or add a nuclear addition….Horvat as LT suggests above or Karlsson or similar depending on who drops out of the hunt.
The schedule is relatively favourable so you could be right.
You could be very well right on a boring trade deadline.
Guess we see
It’s not ‘weird’ because the clock is ticking on the McDavid and Draisaitl contracts AND the team lost in the final 4 last season. The time to be aggressive is now while the window is open.
My favorite thing in a long while was that Ultra Panicked DNB article after the L.A. game. Hair on fire stuff, “trade to trade cause that is what the situation demands!” He wrote. Eight games and a three point spread in the division title race later his head was spinning so fast he had to punch out that joke of an article yesterday to try and catch up “are the Oilers for real??”
Panic. Lose the plot, miss the inflection and then cast shade rather than accept the obvious. That there is Oilers fandom in a nutshell these last few years.
The Oilers are a very good team who had a difficult early schedule and some injury issues but alas are back to being a very good team. Why is this so damn hard to accept? They don’t need an outside helper they need their 24, 23 and 21 year old players to get some damn reps.
The number of pixels spent defending the Avalanche who dealt with the same issues and then to crap on the Oilers is sort of astounding. Oiler fans are always looking for the greener side of things. Even when the greenest is starring right back at them.
Sit back and enjoy the ride. It’ll make the inevitable Stanley that much sweeter.
$3.25M? I think Bouchard’s next deal will be less than that.
1 year, $971,326 contract, signed on the morning of Training Camp. He’ll be next year’s Yamamoto / McLeod.
(Joking, kinda, but he is in that same spot, ELC expired, no arb rights)
Hah, now that would be squeezing him. I was thinking more of Bear, who got a 2 x $2M deal after spending the year as 1RD.
It’ll probably be more than that because of his point totals, but I’d think it will come in below Kulak.
Holland does have a history of grinding the RFAs without arb rights coming off their ELCs does he not.
In the off-season, I posted alot about Bouchard and the Klefbom deal and I didn’t think the player would sign that as his upside is so high. At the same, being 22-23 and a guaranteed $25MM plus being offered would likely cause some hard thought.
I think he comes in under $4MM on a 2-3 year bridge but, to be honest, I’d still sign him to the Klefbom deal and think it would turn out to be a massive value contract over the term.
Hopefully yes but I use the Ceci/Kulak contracts as bookends. Kenny doesn’t hand out post ELC deals the way Dubas does so it could come in lower and I’d be a happy fan.
Bouchard is not a fully formed Dman yet. Given the up and downs and lack of PP time if I was him I’d want the bridge deal and Kenny will want to keep the AAV reasonable for the next two years cause:
1) material cap jump (after next season)
2) you find out what is up with Drai
3) Ceci and Barrie’s contracts are up.
4) You’ll know what you’re doing with Yamo and JP
So I’d take him two years and then go long. You can stagger he and Broberg’s next deals ala Nuge-Hyman.
I agree Bouchard will get a bridge deal this summer, I just think it will be a bit lower AAV.
I wasn’t for going after Bjug in the past as some wanted, but if he’s healthy a bit he’s for right now
He fills an important big hole in the C group, another face off RS that isn’t puck optional
I need to watch him play and then I might get excited.
I was moderately ok with the Brassard bet last year but it didn’t take long to see he’d lost a step. And given other deadline deals – AA and Green come to mind, I’m a bit shy.
The numbers look pretty ok but he’s trailed off in January here (hehe same point totals as Eichel this month…) so I wouldn’t mind giving the eye test a go before getting rowdy.
After glancing once more I do like the level of ice-time he’s getting.
I’m terms of Cap ($39M vs. $82.5M) Horcoff would be $2.1M today. And that would make Pronger’s deal equivalent to $13.2M (and Peca’s over $8M).
The defense on that 06 team was really quite expensive, but all those cheaper forwards made it possible, as you say.
A team of lunch pail 3rd line forwards and elite D and Goaltending. A true working man’s team. An underdog. Edmonton in a nutshell. Damn, I loved those guys.
Oh yeah, that was my favourite hockey team to watch and likely the peak of my Oilers fandom
Being the first year with a cap, without looking I’d expect the a few of the previous have not teams from the pre-cap era to have a number of value contracts. And kudos to Lowe for taking advantage of that short term cap readjustment era to grab Pronger and a few others. Those circumstances weren’t going to last long.
And it is probably quite likely that the addition of Pronger is what made a number of those other contracts such value deals. I believe almost half the Oilers roster had the best seasons of their careers that year either by total, or per game, and some never came close again. Pronger was a game changer on the ice for almost half a game every night. He probably deserved more of a commission on the subsequent pay raises than what their agents got.
What are thoughts on the rumour of Oil looking at Zona for Gostisbihere and Bjugstad ? Not really sure that Defenceman adds to this teams Defensive performance at all. Sure he can pass , but if you add him you have Barrie, Bouchard and him as 3 D men that are not great shutdown types period. Would he get PP minutes over Barrie and then or Bouchard? Not a fan of that move .
Bjugstad is not great on the draw this year ( 46.5). He is not an overly physical guy for a monster. But he has 11 goals 5 on 5 and 21 points. Would he be put into the #3 C spot moving Nuge up?
would we be moving Jessie or Foegle in a deal for either? To me these are not great pickups. Especially if we are giving up a high draft pick for either.
Is Bjugstad a good pker or does he even pk?
Guess we see
Is there a rumor/report about interest in Gost? I haven’t heard that.
It was mentioned at Oilers Nation.
Thanks.
Have seen it in a couple rumour articles. Couple out this am on Daily Hive and Hockey Writers . There was one yesterday and they could be piggy backing off of that one
The Ghost passes the JP test.
17 minutes plus at 5v5 with a positive Fenwick For% rel.
That puts him in a select group of top 2/3 defensemen. That’s a different zip code than Barrie or Kulak.
I don’t know if the average reader here appreciates that when they talk about the ghost.
Yup, he does appear to be a quality player.
He isn’t the right ‘fit’, but I’d still be very interested in he and Bjugstad at what they’ll probably cost (2nd+3rd?).
Friedman/Marek discussed the Oilers’ interest on Monday on the 32 Thoughts Pod.
I did a comparison of Bjugstad, Acciari, Lafferty and Toews last night…
https://lowetide.ca/2023/01/30/doing-the-splits-2/#comment-1186278
It is possible that Bob used this, this afternoon, did you listen?
Thank you for asking.
I’ve been talking about the ghost since he was traded to Arizona.. The key here is low-cost acquisition. GM’s pay a lot for reputation and for big and tough. Watch Rutherford get more for Luke Schenn.
The Ghost would be a substantial upgrade over Kulak at 2 LD. He does make Barrie redundant. If you add the ghost and do nothing else, it’s not an ideal mix for our d group.
The ghost is a modern transition man vs rugged defender.
Evolving Hockey’s model has him in the 92 percentile for his last three year rating.
I don’t know what type of injury he has. That’s the main worry. He was actually playing the right side with Chychrun before injury.
Broken foot.
I like ghost as a trade target namely because he’s probably the best player available without having to trade a 1st round pick.
And like you say he’s an upgrade on Kulak, who then becomes the #7/8
Gostibehere’s injury is an upper body injury for all reports….
The Athletic’s top 99 player count down is coming to a close. Gretzky is # 1, so the question is about #2-7. How about . . .
2. Howe
3. Lemieux
4. Orr
5. Jagr
6. Crosby
7. Ovechkin
I could easily see Orr and Lemieux switched.
I don’t think Howe will be in it because it only covers the era from 1967, and I don’t think they put much value in his WHA time.