Reasonable Expectations 08-09 (Hemsky)

Year over year, Ales Hemsky improved. Using Desjardins 5×5 and 5×4 numbers we get a nice overview of his progress:

  • 06-07 5×5 per 60m: 2.09
  • 07-08 5×5 per 60m: 2.36
  • 06-07 5×4 per 60m: 5.45
  • 07-08 5×4 per 60m: 5.93

While we’re at it, let’s list his TOI for each season at EVs and on the PP:

  • 06-07 EVS: 804 minutes, 12:33 per game
  • 07-08 EVS: 1074minutes, 14:31 per game
  • 06-07 PP: 275minutes, 4:18 per game
  • 07-08 PP: 286minutes, 3:52 per game

Here’s a list of the NW division powerplay drivers and their 5×4 points per 60. Nightly time on ice is in brackets:

  1. Ales Hemsky 5.93 (3:52)
  2. Marian Gaborik 5.46 (3:27)
  3. Jarome Iginla 5.37 (4:22)
  4. Daniel Sedin 4.87 (4:12)
  5. PM Bouchard 4.79 (3:35)

Hemsky’s numbers are still going up and he turns 25 in a couple of weeks. He’ll be playing with better PP performers this winter (Visnovsky, Souray for more of the season one hopes, Gagner is a year older) and there’s at least a chance Hemsky will be playing some EV minutes against less difficult competition.

What does it all mean? If healthy, this should be Ales Hemsky’s breakout year. Let’s look at how my prediction for his 07-08 season worked out:

  • Predicted: 82gp, 26-62-88 (1.07 per game)
  • Actual: 74gp, 20-51-71 (.959 per game)

This year, I’m going to use a three year average for games played and bump his points per game. Prediction for 08-09: 73gp, 26-67-93 (1.27 per game).

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19 Responses to "Reasonable Expectations 08-09 (Hemsky)"

  1. Mark-Ryan says:

    If he breaks 80, I’m happy. If he gets 96 points in 73 games, I’ll eat my futon.

  2. Jonathan says:

    Nice post; I’d been meaning to do something on where Hemsky fits next year in terms of scoring.

    It’s easy to forget that he’s still a very young player, and he certainly has upside, particularly of MacTavish and Co. could ever figure out that loading a whole bunch of powerplay minutes for their best performer is a good idea.

  3. GSC says:

    As much as I’d love to see Hemmer notch 90+ this season (we haven’t had such a prolific scorer since Doug Weight), it seems to be a pretty unrealistic expectation. I’m with mark-ryan on this one, if he ends up with 80 PTS it’s reason to celebrate (esp. if it involves 25 goals). There’s no arguing with the notion that Ales will only get better and his game will continue to expand, however. He’s on his way to be sure as Hemsky has already proven to be a point-per-game guy.

    I’ll go with the following:

    77 GP, 23 G – 57 A – 80 PTS

  4. devin says:

    jonathan- yeah I’ve been screaming about this issue for as long as I can remember- MacT NEEDS to give Hemsky the Kovalchuk PP minutes (ie. virtually all the pp time available). We have a top-end shutdown RW in Pisani who can pick up some of the post-PP ES slack. Moreau can also take the odd ES shift at RW if needed. Do whatever it takes to get Hemsky up into the 5 min/G on the PP!!

  5. doritogrande says:

    93 points? Sorry LT. I’m as optimistic about Hemsky as the next guy, but unless he’s getting the 5 minutes of powerplay time as suggested, he ain’t getting anywhere near 90. The 26 goals is awfully lofty for someone who has scored 20 goals exactly once in his career. He learned to shoot this past season, but other teams are going to have to respect the shot a lot more now, and they’ll be ready for it this time.

    I’ll be thrilled if Hemsky scores over 90 points, but I don’t think it’s exactly reasonable. To each their own though.

  6. goldenchild says:

    Well last year I thought his play was better than his counting numbers indicated the first 20-25 games, just seemed to get some bad breaks and unlucky finishes. If the PP improves the way we all think it should with Vish, Souray Cole a healthy Horc, 90 points is certainly within reach.

  7. Sean says:

    Hemsky was damn near PPG playing without Horcoff and that banged up wrist. He made significant strides last year and it didn’t reflect as much in his numbers. My guess would be closer to 93 than 80.

  8. Quain says:

    Hemsky hit 71 in 73 games, despite spending what? 30 of those with Stoll or Reasoner as his centre? And playing the second half of the season with a banged up wrist?

    I don’t think I buy 96 in 73 (or even consider it a ‘reasonable’ expectation), but 96 in 82 is entirely possible if a few more coins land on heads this year than last year.

  9. danny says:

    If Edmonton doesn’t pick up a shutdown center, I’m willing to wager Hemsky gets below 1.0PPG.

    Why?

    Horc has never posted great offensive numbers when he is the main shutdown guy.

    Now its entirely possible Hemmer plays with Gagner in a softer role, which i doubt… but Horc/Hemmer going PvP will result in im guessing a 75-80 point season for Hemmer, and a 55-60 point season for #10.

    We really need a reliable shutdown guy now that horc is locked up long term… lets see him kill the 2nd tier comp and reproduce his pace last season.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Danny: Agreed, except I think there’s no stopping Hemsky’s point total anywhere near 75 this year.

    However, a veteran RH center who could play that shutdown role (with Pisani and E Cole on the wing) would make this team dangerous.

    Do they get that man before the deadline? I’d say no.

  11. David says:

    I totally agree this is Hemsky’s year to become a legitimate 100 point player, assuming he stays healthy. Those numbers look like I would expect them to if he misses some games.

    But I really hope he hits eighty games this season.

  12. devin says:

    Check this out:

    If Ales had played the same PPTOI as Kovalchuk (5:43/game) he would have, assuming the same scoring rates and no decrease in ES time, scored 82 points in his 74 games.

    That prorates to 91 pts over a healthy 82 game season. Conclusion, if MacT uses Hemsky in the role he’s best at, without any improvement from 83 and a healthy season he’d score over 90 pts. Food for thought.

    Another interesting angle — calcultate Kovalchuk’s numbers pro-rating to Hemsky’s PPTOI. Pretty surprising results. Situational TOI is a HUGE driver of the Pts stat. If Hemsky played in ATL and Kovalchuk played in EDM we could theoretically be looking at a complete reversal of point totals…

  13. David says:

    Devin, that’s some good stuff. And don’t forget that Hemsky’s numbers last year would have been even better without being forced to play so much with Stoll and Reasoner down the stretch.

  14. danny says:

    I think 83 was slightly over a 1 PPG rate during Horcoffs injury

    likely due to the powerlay (3rd) boost and softer match-ups without 10 there

  15. Doogie2K says:

    Random amusing linkage from this very blog, circa mid-October. I’d say LT nailed at least three of the four, including the one topical to this post (with the obvious caveat regarding the 10 injury).

  16. Sean says:

    If Edmonton doesn’t pick up a shutdown center, I’m willing to wager Hemsky gets below 1.0PPG.

    I'll make that bet ;)

    Hemsky isn't going to get soft minutes unless he is playing with Gagner. I think 10-83 PVP is almost a sure thing 5 on 5 for at least a year. Even if we get a shutdown guy, 83 and 34 will be rotating against the other teams best 2 lines.

    The Oilers PP should be much improved. Hemsky will have better players.

    Lubo > Pitkanen
    Sourray > Stoll
    Gagner (this year) > Gagner (last year)

    That alone should put him over PPG.

  17. danny says:

    Its possible I guess… but Edmontons Powerplay for about 50 games was running over 20%. They were top 3 in the NHL for a large portion of the year.

    I don’t see a huge influx of points for Hemmer in that area. I doubt his PP-TOI or PPP/60 getting significant bumps.

    Hemmers Qualcomp isn’t likely getting easier either. If it does, hes losing a good pivot in the process.

    The indicators just say to me that he is in store for a 75-80 point season.

    If him and Horc can platoon tough minutes with another shutdown center, then sure… Hemmers ES numbers should make a noticeable improvement and 90 isn’t unreasonable.

  18. Dennis says:

    Everyone’s hitting all the right notes here and the biggest questions is how much time he gets on the PP.

    I don’t think there’s a long way to go up at evens just because of the QualComp he’s likely to face. And I’m not convinced MacT’s ready to give 1:30 plus an advantage to the number one unit.

    Also, Hemsky’s the kind of guy who’s gonna miss a few games a year and always seems to be dinged up with this or that.

    That being said, he’s a helluva player and I’ll say he gets a PPG but he doesn’t play more than 72 games, either.

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