Bend it Like Peckham

Theo Peckham has the best PR among the Oilers D prospects. Since he was drafted it’s been almost impossible to find a negative comment, from a coach or a teammate or even someone in the media.

He must be doing something right.

Peckham’s offensive numbers (59gp, 6-7-13) don’t jump out at you, not like Sebastien Bisaillon (Peckham trails the Q kid in AHL points-per game .48 to .22) but his 174 pims led Springfield defenders.

Here are the Falcon defenders who played 10 or game games and their plus minus per game:

  1. TJ Reynolds 24gp (+3) +.125 per game
  2. Rick Berry 54gp (+6) +.111 per game
  3. Danny Syvret 36gp (E) 0.00 per game
  4. Bryan Young 74gp (-4) -.050 per game
  5. Allan Rourke 44gp (-6) -.136 per game
  6. Sebastien Bisaillon 22gp (-3) -.136 per game
  7. Mike Gabinet 19gp (-3) -.158 per game
  8. Cody Wild 13gp (-3) .231 per game
  9. Theo Peckham 59gp (-14) -.237 per game
  10. TJ Kemp 73gp (-20) -.273 per game
  11. Brad Farynuk 20gp (-8) -.400 per game

This is a fairly predictable list in that the guys at the top are age 25+ (Reynolds, Berry) and the guys at the bottom are kids (Wild, Peckham). A player like Syvret may have had an underrated season and I have no idea what TK Kemp was doing unless it was babysitting. We don’t have the TOI totals and this isn’t an efficient way to look at these numbers but when faced with such wild swings in games played it’s impossible to put it all in any reasonable order without averaging.

Are there any areas he performed well in during his AHL season? He did improve during March and April. Here are the D numbers for those two months:

  1. Bryan Young 20gp, 0-3-3 +4 (+.2)
  2. Theo Peckham 19gp, 0-4-4 -3 (-.158)
  3. Danny Syvret 22gp, 1-7-8 (-.227)
  4. Cody Wild 13gp, 1-2-3 -3 (-.231)
  5. Brad Farynuk 11gp, 0-3-3 -5 (-.455)
  6. TJ Kemp 20gp, 2-12-14 -13 (-.700)

These are the D who played 10 or more games during March and April and their plus minus per game. Peckham is somewhat similar to Bryan Young in that it really was the tale of two seasons. Here are Young’s splits:

  • October-December 31: -14
  • January 1-end of season: +10

And here are Peckham’s

  • First 29 games: 3-2-5 -10
  • Last 30 games: 3-5-8 -4

Peckham’s strengths heading into training camp are that he is a physical player on a team begging for one and he is also a prospect held in high regard by the organization. Theo Peckham could certainly spend the entire 08-09 season in Springfield, but I don’t think it’s a certainty. Based on the fast track that Smid, Greene and Gilbert were on recently it’s clear this organization has no problem going with inexperienced defensemen.

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17 Responses to "Bend it Like Peckham"

  1. Scott says:

    What do you think it is that has pepole talking more about Peckham than Bryan Young, who is almost never mentioned when men and women turn to these prospect discussions. We talk about Wild, Bisaillon, Chorney, Peckham and Petry the most I’d say. Which of the first four do you figure to be ECHL bound?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Scott: I’d say that of the group (Wild, Bisaiilon, Chorney and Peckham) the most likely to spend time in the ECHL is Bisaillon. He had a dreadful injury and missed a ton of time one year ago. Obviously if he shows up camp and everything is fine then it’s a different story.

  3. Jonathan says:

    I’d say that of the group (Wild, Bisaiilon, Chorney and Peckham) the most likely to spend time in the ECHL is Bisaillon.

    I’m gonna bet on Wild.

  4. Hemsky_83 says:

    I think Wild stays on just because it’d be good to have 3 solid puck-movers down on that Falcons team. He could see some bottom-pairing minutes.

    I’m surprised to see Peckham had such numbers down in the AHL. I know he’s a rookie, but with the way Oilers brass were talking about him you’d think he was a plus player and a solid shutdown defender. From these numbers it seems like he’s farther away than I thought.

    It surprises me to see how Syvret had a pretty solid season, but then again it hasn’t translated into any NHL success. It’s good to see that Bryan Young picked it up late in the season, he looked like he was on the fast track to be a reserve defenseman after 2006-2007.

  5. dawgbone says:

    scott, Young’s drawback is that he doesn’t have any offense. He’s probably worse than Matt Greene in this regard. Young has 8 assists in 108 AHL games and hasn’t scored a goal in his last 3 seasons, including one in the OHL. In fact, he’s got 2 goals and 52 assists in 410 games including playoffs going all the way back to his days in Tier 2 junior hockey.

    Of the defencemen in our system 22 and younger he’s the best pure defender we have. The problem is, can he be on the ice for that few goals against if he isn’t contributing any goals for? That’s a tough line.

    To put it in perspective, he’s got less offense than Chris Hajt.

  6. toqueboy says:

    LT, thanks for the great series on all of these dmen — lots of terrific info.

    really quickly, I believe that there is a massive gulf between all the “would-bes” and smid. would you compare matt greene to any of these kids? or consider that he might lose his job to one? the oilers brass already told us earlier this summer (when they traded with LA) that Smid was superior/larger chip than greener. i also think that the faceoff data you mentioned earlier speaks to MacT/Huddy’s confidences and it says to me that they’re comfortable with Smid take own end draws and while his +/- might indicate otherwise, they’re obviously grooming him for the role.

    so to phrase the d quagmire in another slant, would you send any of these ‘young’ dmen out for draws in our own end (especially given our lack of draw-winning dmen)? other than hrabel (who i haven’t seen at all, but trust more because of his ‘playing with adults’ time in the Thoresen mold sort of way) I don’t think we have a d prospect that we should even be considering giving games to this year. RS is going to spend the better part of 3 years in the AHL working at ’rounding out’ his game and i’m sure all these dmen would benefit from the same. There hasn’t been one of these write ups where i’ve said, “shit, this guy is ready.” there’s still swiss cheese everywhere.

    i saw peckham pretty good at his first rookies/bears game and am a big fan, but i really hope that we don’t hear any announcers this year say “chorney, peckham, etc, etc.” we’re due a year of health and relative maturity on D.

  7. Coach pb9617 says:

    Why did you post a picture of Richard Pryor with this entry?

  8. transplantedjetfan says:

    According to your depth chart worked through in July the defense in Springfield would look like

    8(Roy)
    9 Theo Peckham
    10 Josef Hrabel
    11 Taylor Chorney
    12 Cody Wild
    13 Bryan Young
    14 Sebastien Bisaillon

    plus there are a few minor league vets kicking around. Is this still valid? If so, none of the above mentioned d-men should have to spend much time in the ECHL.

  9. Alice says:

    The 174 pim is a concern though. Good that he’s tough, and hopefully there’s lots of offsetting majors in that mix. But if he’s taking dumb cross-checking penalties then he’s in the box while his D buddies get to collect the GA stat. Staying out of the box is one way to help your team win.

  10. Scott says:

    Taking a lot of stupid penalties in the NHL gets you a Norris trophy nomination…

    Back to Peckham… I don’t know for sure, but based on comments from those who watch Springfield games regularly I’d say those PIMs are about 40%+ majors. With off-setting roughing minors and the like, it might not be Jarret Stoll territory at all.

  11. Scott says:

    I think LT had a few other defencemen mentioned in an earlier post. The veterans:

    Jake Taylor
    T.J. Reynolds
    Mike Gabinet

    And a new college kid in Robbie Bina who is older than the other kids but whose numbers look better than Chorney’s. I’ve never seen either of them play but I would think that if the guy has a good camp he could make the (AHL) team. Also, is Harlan Anderson going to be in camp?

    I don’t know if Rick Berry is coming back or not. Anybody?

    Reynolds and Berry were two of the better performers in Springfield according to this post and Gabinet had this said about him by Guy Flaming after the year:

    “Mike Gabinet was considered one the Falcons best blueliner during his 19-game run and sources tell HF that the Oilers plan to bring him back again in 2008-09.”

    Also, I believe that there are only six defenders on the AHL roster at one time, but if someone knows otherwise please correct me.

    Regardless of whether Berry is coming back the competition is going to be fierce and I’d say there’s a better chance that two of Chorney, Wild, Bisaillon and Peckham start in the ECHL than zero.

    I’d imagine the AHL depth chart will look something like this (in terms of chance I’d give of making the team):

    1. Roy (if he clears waivers)
    2. Berry (if he’s returning)
    3. Young
    4. Reynolds
    5. Peckham
    6. Chorney
    7. Taylor
    8. Bisaillon
    9. Bina
    10. Gabinet
    11. Wild
    12. Anderson

  12. Ribs says:

    This guy is just bound to dissapoint….sigh..

  13. Lowetide says:

    ribs: I think he’s probably more likely to get injured than anything.

    A guess at the NHL-AHL depth chart at this point might be:

    1. Visnovsky
    2. Souray
    3. Gilbert
    4. Staios
    5. Grebeshkov
    6. Smid
    7. Strudwick
    8. Roy
    9. Peckham
    10. Hrabal
    Jake Taylor AHL depth
    11. Young
    TJ Reynolds-AHL depth
    Mike Gabinet-AHL depth
    13. Chorney
    14. Bisaillon
    15. Wild

    I don’t think Taylor, Reynolds or Gabinet get called up unless there’s another run on D, but they’ll keep a kid or two in the AHL pressbox most night.

    As for how many they can carry, I think it’s a ton. The Falcons had a ton of players who didn’t dress a year ago. Some of that was injury but I think they’re allowed to carry quite a few extra players.

  14. Asiaoil says:

    Just for comparisons sake – here are Laddy Smid’s numbers for his first and only 71 game AHL season as a 19 year old – roughly the same age as Peckham’s first year:

    3-25-28 +14 48PIM

    I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves in terms of evaluating the potential of Peckham based on his first pro season (an important marker) and Smid’s first season. Still think he’s more Sean Brown than anything but he’s done more than I expected.

  15. dawgbone says:

    Asiaoil, don’t forget that Smid played on a dominant team that year in the AHL (Getzlaf, Perry and Penner all had big numbers when they were down there).

    I think if you could find a way to balance out the team factors, Peckham and Smid would be very close in terms of performance as first year pros.

  16. Asiaoil says:

    I don’t know DB…..28 points in +/- column is one heck of a lot to chalk up to teammates. There’s a bit of personal responsibility involved and certain other young dmen did a lot better on the same team (eg Young).

  17. Ribs says:

    ribs: I think he’s probably more likely to get injured than anything.

    That would indeed be dissapointing.

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