There are 6 players from the 2005 Entry Draft who have played more games than Andrew Cogliano. If there was a re-draft for ’05 today, my guess is he’d go just outside the top 10 (Crosby, Jack Johnson, Carey Price, Anze Kopitar, Paul Stastny, it was a very good year) which is terrific value based on where they got him.
Cogliano is tied to Sam Gagner because of their impressive rookie seasons but I don’t think their career paths will be similar. Both should have long careers, but if Cogliano is the new Butch Goring (which is my belief) then Sam Gagner would be the new Marcel Dionne (with hopefully more dimension).
MacTavish used the rookies on the same line for much of the season, but there were subtle differences:
- EV/game: Gagner(12:46), Cogliano(10:49)
- PP/game: Gagner(2:48), Cogliano(2:01)
- PK/game: Gagner(0:05), Cogliano(0:48)
Gagner made better use of PP time (3.88 for Samwise to 2.52 for Cogs) but Cogliano had the scoring edge at EVs (2.28 to 1.96). Cogliano also scored 2-1-3 on the PK. The age difference is only 2 years but that represents a tremendous gap and the kid is probably going to improve at a significantly greater rate than #13.
Cogliano played mid-level competition (tougher than you’d expect a rookie to see) with average to below average linemates and the result was a solid +1. That should give us a clear indication of his Butch Goring future, a quality two-way player who uses his speed effectively in all zones.
However, a deeper look implies he was probably more lucky than good this past season. His Corsi number (-11.7) ranked as the third worst in the division (Trevor Linden of the Canucks was -14.6 and Aaron Voros in Minnesota was -15.6) among forwards who played 50 or more games. I’m having a hard time marrying the two results and welcome any input.
I don’t have Corsi splits (does anyone?) but we did notice a massive improvement for Gagner in the season’s second half and I thought it may also have applied to Cogliano:
- First 41: 7-12-19 (.463) -6
- Second 41: 11-15-26 (.634) +7
That’s terrific improvement. If MacT had him out there against tougher than expected opposition one year ago it’s unlikely he’s going to turn back now. That added to those PP minutes being taken away (I’d guess) means his numbers aren’t likely to take a huge step forward this year.
Prediction for 08-09: 80gp, 20-25-45 (.563 per game).