Reasonable Expectations for 08-09 (Cole)

The math tells us Craig MacTavish is going to have an interesting dilemma regarding Erik Cole’s ideal spot in the batting order.

Last season at 5×5 he faced giants every night with only average men at his side, and performed pretty well(73gp, 12-22-34, +5). Dustin Penner’s 5×5 numbers (82gp, 10-15-25, -12 in 50 more EV minutes than Cole) are not in the same ballpark, especially considering Penner had better linemates pretty much every night (based on Desjardins).

There’s a decision to be made in regard to Cole and Penner. In a perfect world, MacT would line Cole up with Horcoff and Hemsky and run power v. power every night in the heart of the order. However, if this team is going to have some balance and be able to send more than one heavy lifting line over the boards (especially on the road) it’s probably necessary to place Cole on a line with Fernando Pisani. Cole got results in Carolina in a somewhat similar situation and must have had exceptional value to the team. If they go that route, what will it affect?

Cole’s counting numbers. I think he can probably duplicate the EV numbers above with Pisani if they can find a center among Brodziak, Cogliano or Pouliot and there is some evidence the monster PP minutes in Carolina (4 per night) might be better used at EVs and PK. So if you send Cole’s line over the boards to take the shift after an Oiler powerplay and he does the job without scoring 50 points is everyone going to be happy? Who cares.

Prediction for 08-09: 71gp, 20-27-47 (.662 per game).

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48 Responses to "Reasonable Expectations for 08-09 (Cole)"

  1. andy grabia says:

    There’s a decision to be made in regard to Cole and Penner. In a perfect world, MacT would line Cole up with Horcoff and Hemsky and run power v. power every night in the heart of the order. However, if this team is going to have some balance and be able to send more than one heavy lifting line over the boards (especially on the road) it’s probably necessary to place Cole on a line with Fernando Pisani.

    Cmon, LT. Just say it. Penner on the 3rd line is a PR disaster for Kevin Lowe. That’s the real reason Cole isn’t automatically on the 1st line.

  2. Kish says:

    So, thats based on him playing post-pp shifts and clean-up tough minutes with The Fernando, right? Seems about right to me.
    And, hypothetically, if he plays with Horc & Hemsky all year, then… something in the 75gp 30-40-70 range.

  3. Asiaoil says:

    How about:

    Cole Horcoff Hemsky (PVP)
    Penner Gagner Rowbear(butcher the chumps)
    Moreau Brodziak/Cogs/MAP Pisani
    4th line mix and match

    OK I know Moreau may only last to the 2nd pre-season game before he gets hurt but……

    - the top line is a serious outscoring option, anytime and against any opposition

    - the 2nd line could put up a lot of points in soft situations and 2 guys are signed for multiple years (Penner, Rowbear), plus Penner adds some size and experience that will be handy on the road

    - the 3rd line wingers (Piani and Moreau) are good enough to cover most of the gaffs that the young center will make (whoever it is). Plus we are going to play a young center in this slot in any case – so why not give him our two best defensive wingers?

    - the 4th line is based on need (grit, speed, skill), opponents, injuries, availability

  4. mjsh says:

    I find it hard to believe that in the middle of baseball season and football season that I am this interested in the oilers. I hate winter but cannot wait for the season to start. I like Horc. hemsky and Penner, then the kid line, Cole with Pisani and Brodziak on the third line and some combination of Moreau, MAP, Shremp and Stortini on the 4th line. Once the injuries start we can see JFJ and Brule. I actually have pretty high hopes for Penner and Brule. Penner showed some signs last year of being a dominating power forward and I definately remember Brule from Junior.

  5. Vic Ferrari says:

    The thing about him coming over the boards following an Oilers PP strikes a chord. Not necessarily because he will have that gig for much or any of the season, but because MacTavish will probably still have useful players left on the bench when that icetime happens this year.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Andy: I honestly believe it’s more about having 2 lines who can hold back the water.

  7. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    Next you’ll have Mantle batting 8th.

    If we are paying the only player on the team to ever score 30 goals 4 million to play on the third line something is seriously out of kilter.

    This “hold back the water” mindset ended in the middle of last season.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Fake Craig MacTavish: GREAT nick. When you have nothing but children and 6′s you can hum “Hold Back the Water” but you can’t do it.

  9. danny says:

    Meh.

    It looks like we are going to go PvP based on the experience down the middle. Horc is the only guy to lift heavy now… and when hes preoccupied shutting people down he hasn’t done well on the scoresheet.

    To be a good outscorer, you need to do both.

    Cole on the left may be the only way to have that line do any outscoring PvP. Penners speed won’t keep the Iginlas honest like Cole will… and Hemmer is a turnover bandit.

    If Cole doesn’t play on that line, and they DO play PvP… then I think Horc is in for a terrible season stats wise.

    If this team had Peca/Dvorak right now, I think the NW division would be in the bag, and a conference finals berth within reach.

    In lieu of that, the team has a completely different dynamic, and I can’t stress enough how poor Horc has been offensively without a shutdown pivot backing him up.

  10. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    The only way my team wins is to score a boatload and Cole is the best bet.

    He has the wheels to keep up and will make both Alice and Horcough better players.

    Penner should be taking draws on the second line…lord knows no one else can.

    I’m sitting here humming New Orleans is Sinking.

    “Pale as a light bulb hanging on a wire
    Sucking up to someone just stoke the fire
    Picking out the highlights of the scenery
    Saw a little cloud looked a little like me”

  11. Lowetide says:

    Well if they run Cole out there on a good line with Pisani, I think we’ll be singing a better tune:

    Sometimes the faster it gets
    The less you need to know
    But you gotta remember
    The smarter it gets
    the further it’s going to go

  12. andy grabia says:

    I honestly believe it’s more about having 2 lines who can hold back the water.

    Sorry, LT. You misunderstand me. I totally believe that that is your thinking, and it’s logical (not the most logical, in my opinion, because I think the best option is to put Cole on that first line). I just don’t believe that is the organization’s thinking. I think it’s way easier for them to put the new kid on the 3rd line rather than the guy Kevin Lowe’s been fighting with Brian Burke over for the past year.

    None of this is actually based on current performance, of course. We won’t know what will happen until camp starts. If one of the two comes out guns blazing playing with Horcoff and Hemsky, they’ll get that spot. And I actually like the thought of Cole playing with Pisani. I just don’t think it’s the optimal use of that player, which makes it the less than optimal use for the team. I also don’t know how Cole would take being told he was on the 3rd line, considering even you admit his performance merits first line minutes and attention. Penner wouldn’t like it either, but my response to him would be, “then earn the 1st line minutes.”

  13. Lowetide says:

    Andy: Gotcha. Yeah, if we’re listiing off players in terms of their actual value Cole is ahead of Penner by quite a bit, and he certainly would make that top trio hum.

    I do love the idea of having another bullet in the chamber, though.

  14. Ender says:

    I know I’m probably the only one who thinks this, but if Cole plays with Pisani, I’d expect Pisani’s numbers to go way up. Yes, he’s a grinder, and yes, this isn’t the 06 playoffs, but look at his numbers playing with shitty linemates with a debilitating intestinal disease last year.

    My point is that if Cole – MAP – Pisani is the third line, they’re fairly likely to score 2nd line numbers while holding the water at bay (depending on the obvious injury question).

    To me, Penner-Horc – Hemsky is likely below a good chunk of the 1st lines in the league, but, and I know I said this during the vaunt year before we got destroyed by injuries, we effectively have 2 2nd lines, but one that can handle tough opp as well.

  15. Jonathan says:

    know I’m probably the only one who thinks this, but if Cole plays with Pisani, I’d expect Pisani’s numbers to go way up. Yes, he’s a grinder, and yes, this isn’t the 06 playoffs, but look at his numbers playing with shitty linemates with a debilitating intestinal disease last year.

    My point is that if Cole – MAP – Pisani is the third line, they’re fairly likely to score 2nd line numbers while holding the water at bay (depending on the obvious injury question).

    Beat me to it. Just because Pisani’s on a line doesn’t mean it cant’s core….

    The only problem I have with Cole/Pisani on the same line is the question mark at centre. The kids vying for the role are either defensively lacking or can’t score. It’ll be tough for Cole/Pisani to excel without a legit centreman.

  16. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    asiaoil said…
    How about:

    Cole Horcoff Hemsky (PVP)
    Penner Gagner Rowbear(butcher the chumps)
    Moreau Brodziak/Cogs/MAP Pisani
    4th line mix and match

    There you go…no lily gilding required.

  17. Oilman says:

    Can’t we just trade Penner and Souray to FLA for Boumeester and Dvorak and clear this whole thing up?;o)

  18. Mark-Ryan says:

    I don’t buy the PR argument because I don’t buy that Lowe or MacTavish gives half a crap what anyone other them themselves thinks about their decisions. In fact, I’d pretty much bet my nest egg on it.

    Cole on the first line in 5v5 and Penner on the first PP unit only makes sense. Cole’s even strength numbers were much better then Penner’s and Penner’s PP numbers were much better then Cole has ever had in his career.

    Only makes sense to me.

  19. HBomb says:

    The only problem I have with Cole/Pisani on the same line is the question mark at centre. The kids vying for the role are either defensively lacking or can’t score. It’ll be tough for Cole/Pisani to excel without a legit centreman.

    Maybe we have that legit centreman for them in Shawn Horcoff. Now hear me out on this….effectively we’d be going a-la the New York Rangers where the “2nd” line was the power-vs-power matchup.

    Penner-Gagner-Hemsky: these guys get fed softer minutes, lots off PP time, and run up big counting numbers, making the Penner signing look good to the masses. (Essentially, this is how the Rangers used Jagr)

    Cole-Horcoff-Pisani: this trio takes on the toughest minutes. They’re the PVP line and are leaned on heavily at ES. (This would be the Shanahan/Avery line)

    Nilsson-Cogliano-Schremp: this line you need to shield the most. They’d be getting uber-soft minutes, softer than even the Hemsky line.

    Moreau-Brodziak-Pouliot/Stortini: could a team survive playing their fourth line in the 2nd toughest ES minutes?

    The advantage to this is you can run the Cole-Horcoff-Pisani line out against anyone. The problem is that you’ve got two lines needing sheltering and your fourth line is playing the 2nd toughest minutes and may not be capable of it.

    I still think the best option, Penner “optics” be damned, is this:

    Cole Horcoff Hemsky
    Cogliano Gagner Nilsson
    Penner Pouliot Pisani
    Moreau Brodziak Stortini

    Which means Schremp back in Springfield…..

  20. Traktor says:

    I like the idea of Cole on a line with Pisani but in that case (and the only case) I would almost want to put Cogliano at C and fully utilize Cole’s speed and shot.

    It would probably mean that Brodziak, Schremp, Pouliot, or Brule would get a chance with Gagner and Nilsson on the butter soft line.

    Who knows…

  21. Lowetide says:

    This team needs a veteran RH center. Just do.

  22. Showerhead says:

    This is the post I’ve been looking forward to the most out of this series. So far, every one of your non-Ales predictions has been exactly (and I really do mean exactly) what my own would look like for the players involved.

    Cole is a tougher case. You have the 1st-vs-3rd line dilemma (and that’s just pre-blender), no prior history playing with Oiler linemates, divisional differences to account for, and an injury history to guess at. Am I missing anything? Oh yeah, what if he can’t play LW?

    So for my own guess, I take his post-lockout average of 68GP, 27G-30A-57P, and nick him just a little for quality of division. How about 68GP with 25-28-53? I imagine his role will change so many times over the course of the season that I’m just ignoring linemates/opposition pretty much entirely.

  23. Showerhead says:

    PS – your labels for most if not all of these are “reasonable expecations”. Seems you’re missing a T.

  24. Traktor says:

    “This team needs a veteran RH center”

    With Meszaros, Nycholat (31 games experience), Lee (6 games experience) and Schubert as the top 4 PP options in Ottawa, and considering Meszaros isn’t even signed and is hinting that he will sign in the KHL, it is possible that Murray is stupid enough to trade Mike Fisher for Souray and prospects?

    Horcoff and Fisher at 1-3 would be scary.

  25. andy grabia says:

    I find myself siding with hbomb on this one. I like those lines, though I still don’t think Schremp makes this team. He’ll have to have an amazing pre-season to convince Mac T.

  26. HBomb says:

    I find myself siding with hbomb on this one. I like those lines, though I still don’t think Schremp makes this team. He’ll have to have an amazing pre-season to convince Mac T.

    The only way he does make the team is IF they decide to go “Easter Line” with the two-way-guys (Cole/Horcoff/Pisani) and run Gagner between Penner and Hemsky plus another soft minutes line with three kids.

    If they go with my “preferred” option, the only spot available is the 13th forward spot. Keeping Schremp around as the 13F does not make one ounce of sense.

    LT: Does Smolinski shoot right? I get the idea he’s going to be this August/September’s Mike Johnson around the Oilogosphere….

  27. kinger says:

    Here’s how I see things shaking out:

    Penner – Horcoff – Hemsky

    This line had a lot of success last year for a pretty good string of games. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cole up there on occasion, but I do think that Horcoff and Hemmmer will be attached at the hip. I think MacT will roll this line out against 2nd bests and in offensive situations (attacking zone faceoffs).

    Paired with:

    Smid – Vishnovsky

    Vishnovsky’s puck moving ability complements this lines attack quite well. Further, they won’t have to play against the Iginla’s and Thornton’s of the league, sheltering Smid from the toughest opposition.

    Gagner – Cogliano – Nilsson

    Soft parade; the easiest possible competition. These guys flourished late last season when they lined up against nobodies, look to see that again.

    Paired with:

    Grebeshkov – Gilbert

    Gilbert was a big part of the kids success late last year; Huddy had him paired to that line quite frequently. I think that both these guys ‘fit’ in with the kids quite well.

    Cole – Pouliot – Pisani

    While this line might not outscore the opponents toughest players, they should be able to hold their own. The operative goal is to keep the GA down while the 1st and 2nd lines do the scoring. This line will see a lot of D-zone draws.

    Paired with:

    Souray – Staios

    We all know Sheldon is shit for offense at ES, but it appears from his performance last year with Staios that he can at least keep the GA down. Again, the idea is not necessarily to outscore but to the keep the events low.

    Moreau – Brodziak – Stortini

    Crash and bang. Get these guys out on the ice against Phaneuf/Regehr/Burns/Ohlund/Mitchell/Liles/ etc and punish them down low. MacT finally has a 4th line that he can trust out there against better than nobodies. I see Stortini playing less minutes at ES than the other two as Hemsky or Pisani jumps on the RW.

    Paired with:

    Whatever is rested. Ideally Grebs and Gilbert.

    PP:

    Penner – Gagner – Hemsky
    Vishnovsky – Souray

    Cogliano – Horcoff – Nilsson
    Grebs – Gilbert

    PK:

    Brodziak – Moreau
    Pouliot – Pisani
    Horcoff – Cole

    Souray – Staios
    Smid – Vishnovsky

  28. devin says:

    traktor- hell, even Vermette for Souray+. Then sign Malik to fill out LD and you’ve just spent equal money to ice a significantly better team.

  29. cynical joe says:

    The question though is if Cole gets put on the 2nd line (or 3rd line) are the Oilers going to be able to re-sign him? If he doesn’t get PP time will Cole want to move on next year? Seeing how Penner is signed long term and could probably use the softer minutes, I think Cole to the first line makes sense.

  30. boopronger says:

    As a few have mentioned i would agree with putting cole on the first line. From little that ive seen/heard, it seems like he is just as gritty as Smyth but much more skilled. I personally think he can put up 35g playing with hemsky horcoff this season.

    Just let Cole load up on ES minutes and put Penner on the third line but let him be a PP hog.

  31. spOILer says:

    If the MAP can’t find the 3C spot and the experiment is lost, I would like to see MacT re-orienting to:

    PENN HORC HEMS
    GAGN COGL PISA
    MORE NILS COLE
    POTU BROD STOR

    Any way we roll, there’s going to be some experimenting, injuries etc, but I like the balance in the lines above. Same if we switch Cogs and Nilsson. Fernie can help the second line outscore.

    I prefer Rowbert over Cogs at 3C because those 2 north-southers should have a passing centre betwixt(like Pouliot).

    Pouliot is worth a shot though. If it doesn’t work I guess we can always try to trade for Peca at the deadline.

    But ya gotta think with all the centres on the team, we should be able to make these bodies fit somehow.

    I just can’t see those three waterbugs staying on the same line together forever.

    Be nice if one of the shutdown wingers we have could pass, then Cogs at 3C would make more sense.

    And we definitely need more guys who can shoot the puck, so I’m pencilling in Potulny if MAP fails.

  32. misfit says:

    IMO, you can run Cole out on the top line with Horcoff and Hemsky AND play him on the first shift after the powerplay with no issue at all, and I also believe that’s how MacT should do it.

    Assuming Penner-Gagner-Hemsky are the forwards on the powerplay, it’s just a matter of Pisani taking Hemsky’s spot for that first shift after the time has run out on the man advantage. Throw the kid line or 18-51-46 out after them (when you’re likely to get a soft matchup) and continue to roll/match the lines as per usual.

    The question of who centers Pisani on your secondary “heavy lifting line” isn’t going away regardless of where you put Cole. My guess is Pouliot will get the nod. He’s looked good with Pisani in the past, by my eye anyway, and style-wise, I think Penner would be a better fit than Cole. Plus, Cole seems like a better fit with Horc and Hemsky anyway both in terms of style and effectiveness.

  33. rickibear says:

    Lets look at our EV G/60 scorers:
    Horcoff C 1.18 24G
    Brodziak C 0.97 17G
    Cogliano C 0.85 14G
    Pisani RW 0.82 14G
    Hemsky RW 0.71 15G
    Cole RW 0.71 15G
    Penner LW ????
    We can see the centers for our first three lines.

    Lets look At our playmakers reflected in EV 1stAsst/60:
    Hemsky 1.35
    Nilsson 1.15
    Cole 1.08
    Gagner 1.04
    Brodziak 0.90

    Hemsky with Horcoff
    Nilsson with Cogliano
    Cole or Gagner with Brodziak???

    There is no way Nilsson and Gagner should be set up men with Cogliano.
    so I go with Gagner RW with Brodziak.

    The only RW slot left for Pisani is slotted with Nilsson, Cogliano.

    Therefore the last choice Penner or Cole on the first line. I put Cole with Horc and Hemmer
    Penner with Brodziak

    Line Avg Qual Comp
    Cole-Horcoff-Hemsky 0.06
    Nilsson-Cogliano-Pisani 0.00
    Penner-Brodziak-Gagner 0.00
    Moreau-Pouliot-Storitini -0.06

    The question is how badly the Brodziak line bleeds on the road.
    If its bad we end up with what everyone is preaching.

    Penner-Horc-Hemsky
    Nilsson-Cogliano-Gagner
    Cole-Brodziak-Pisani
    Moreau-pouliot-Storitini

    The power play is much more simple:
    PP Goals:
    Penner 2.44 13G
    Pisani 2.35 11G
    Cole 2.30 13G
    Hemsky 1.54 8G
    Horcoff 1.43 8G
    1st Assist:
    Hemsky 2.63
    Gagner 1.94
    Horcoff 1.71

    The blend of Horc-Hemsky working off each other with a feeds to Cole and the points.

    Cole Horcoff Hemsky
    Gilbert Souray

    Gagner working off the left side boards with the ability to shoot or pass to Penner down low and in front of the net. Cross ice to Pisani for the finish and cross ice to a pinching Vishnovsky.

    Gagner Penner Pisani
    Grebs Vishnovsky

    PK: GA/60:
    Cogliano 4.60
    Brodziak 4.82
    Moreau 5.17
    Pisani 5.24
    Cole 5.40
    Horcoff 5.79

    Souray 3.68
    Staios 4.15
    Gilbert 4.88
    Smid 6.03
    Vishnov 6.43

    The loss of Pitkanen and Greene is an issue on the PK.

  34. PDO says:

    LT, it’s rare I don’t agree with you this much; but two points:

    #1) If we traded 2 years of Pitkanen for 1 year of a 20 goal scorer: I’m pissed off. It’s that simple.

    #2) I see no reason Cole can’t play with Horcoff and Hemsky. That line is THAT good. They can run the other teams bench, and I think you’re underestimating that. That is a line that other teams gameplan for, and we can keep guys like Stastny, Cammalerri, and Bouchard off the ice with. They are too smart, too skilled and too fast to not be dominant against ANY opposition.

  35. Sean says:

    I doubt Cole gets consistent #1 line minutes until he signs an extension. I’m guessing 50-60 points but he thrives on the #1 unit.

    As someone mentioned, trade Souray and Penner for Boumeester. Use the cap space to sign Sundin.

    Nilsson – Sundin – Hemsky
    Cole – Horcoff – Pisani (PVP)
    Schremp – Gagner – Cogliano (soft)
    Morreau – Brodziak – Stortini

    I’m not a big Schremp fan but he has to skill to play soft minutes with 89 and 13. Ok now that the pipe dream is over, is there really a need to play Penner for PR reasons? We have a new owner who didnt push the team to spend and a new GM. I sure as hell hope the focus is winning over looking good.

  36. Alice says:

    You win, you’re looking good – no?

  37. Scott says:

    I'm usually on board with you, LT, but not on this one. I think Cole should be on the first line. That said, I won't be losing sleep if I'm wrong and you're right, but hear me out:

    1 – When the top line turned it around last year, it had a lot to do with chemistry starting from the PP, keep Penner there. Cole isn't a great PP option anyway.
    2 – Cole has the speed to play with H&H, Penner can't match Cole in this regard.
    3 – Penner likes to cycle in the offensive zone. This is a much better match for Pouiot/Pisani type line mates.
    4 – I want Cole to be happy without having his counting numbers go through the roof so we can exetend him at comparable dollars to his current contract. 1st line ES and very little PP should do it.
    5 – Cole's physical play should open more space for H&H than Penner's size. Maybe this is debatable, but it's how I see it.

    Give HCH the tough minutes and they should still outscore.
    Give PPP the 2nd toughest and I bet they stay even.
    The kids will eat up the soft minutes.
    The fourth line can bruise up whoever they get out against.

  38. Traktor says:

    Keep in mind that Penner was aquired as a project. Is this team built to win today? If not, wouldn’t demoting Penner to the third line for one year of Cole be a little short-sighted?

  39. Scott says:

    Hemsky didn’t develop on the first line and neither did Horcoff. As long as he is in the top 9 and practicing with MacT every day, he’ll develop just fine.

    I say let them battle, I just think Cole will win the battle. Competition for spots is a great development tool.

  40. Traktor says:

    Good points, I just think this year and next year are the most important seasons in Penner’s development and don’t want him to get lost in the mix.

  41. Dennis says:

    The awnser is that 26 doesn’t like not getting to play with 10-83 and/or not seeing PP time but going forward this team won’t be built around Cole and with big money already being paid to forwards like 27-10-83 and 13-89 soon to be in line for their grab, it’s not like we’re gonna be able to afford Cole past ’09 anyway.

    And, Mark Ryan, if you don’t think that Lowe and/or MAcT don’t care about optics, consider Smid making the team out of the ’07 camp.

    I predict MacT leaves the kids alone and gives them shelter and that means 27 gets to keep playing with the cool kids and 51/78 get to audition for the second toughest min gig between 26/34.

    If that doesn’t suit Cole, then he can leave next summer.

  42. Schitzo says:

    Guys, lets be realistic. Within the first 10 games, someone in the top 6 will be out for 30 games, and suddenly we have the right number of guys to fill up the top 6

  43. Jonathan says:

    Guys, lets be realistic. Within the first 10 games, someone in the top 6 will be out for 30 games, and suddenly we have the right number of guys to fill up the top 6

    The best part of August is pretending that the Oilers will have a healthy lineup all season.

  44. Doogie2K says:

    The best part of August is pretending that the Oilers will have a healthy lineup all season.

    I’m sorry, I don’t think I know what you’re talking about. That happens every season.

  45. misfit says:

    Traktor: I don’t see how first unit powerplay time and 2nd most ES minutes gets Penner lost in anything. Also, playing along side Pisani is never a bad situation for a developing player, IMO.

  46. Ribs says:

    Knowing MacTavish, Erik Cole is going to see a lot of ice this year. The guy has gears we haven’t seen in Oilers blue since forever and MacT is one of the biggest work/reward coaches in the game. You can never guarantee chemistry when it comes to Hemsky but Horcoff is going to love this guy.

    I don’t see any problem in moving Cole around as he’ll be useful just about anywhere but he’s too good not to be tried on that top line first off.

  47. raventalon40 says:

    MacT will definitely juggle the lines a lot during the year.

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