Desjardins and his Numbers

This is Gabriel Desjardins. He is 15 years old but hockey men are already aware of him and tracking his progress. Young Desjardins played last season in the Quebec Midget Triple A Hockey League (44gp, 10-12-22, 30pims) but the numbers that stand out are that he’s already 5.11 and 186 pounds. If this young man grows at even an average clip we’re looking at an above average left winger come draft day (which I believe for him will be 2010). The team he plays for currently is the Montreal Predateurs.

One day in the future Desjardins may end up being drafted by an NHL team and perhaps make himself more famous than many of the 50 Desjardins’ who have played hockey at high levels (among them Eric and Gerry).

There’s another Gabriel Desjardins hockey fans should know about and you can click on his site right now and open up a world of possibilities, probabilities and wonderful statisitical toys. This guy should be known as “the answer Man” for fans like me. You know that long, pregnant pause that takes place right after you ask a question? Like “I wonder how many goals Jordan Eberle would score if they shuttled him right to the NHL next season?” or “Is it reasonable to expect Rob Schremp to outscore Robert Nilsson next season if both played the same NHL minutes?” Desjardins is the guy who goes about the business of finding the answers (which are “15 if he played a full season” and “no, but it isn’t as wide a gap as many would have you believe”) and does so with reason, intelligence and is incredibly open to ideas that may improve his methods.

I think the guy is brilliant. So, when he comes up with something new it’s a highlight. Today, I received an email advising me about his latest foray into the world of projecting teenagers into the league they’re going to play in the following season. The study is here. I plan on having a look at kids like Riley Nash (looks like he ran well past expectations) and Joe Colborne with Desjardins’ latest toy.

Thank you, Gabriel.

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6 Responses to "Desjardins and his Numbers"

  1. JohnnyOil says:

    I love the Desjardins numbers you put together here, sort of like Kepler to Desjardins’ Brahe. It’s a good tandem :)

  2. Showerhead says:

    Quick look has Nash's 06/07 translate to 28 pts in the NCAA. He actually got 25.

    Pro:
    He was just a rookie and probably had less of a role.

    Con:
    25 < 28 ;)
    Doesn't play in the NCAA's strongest division.

    I don't see how this reads out to be great for the kid but it's certainly within the range.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Showerhead: I have Nash at 32 points last season in the NCAA. Are you excluding some of the games?

  4. Lowetide says:

    Just so I’m clear that the math is right for Nash, let’s run him through the new Desjardins.

    BCJHL 55gp, 38-46-84

    Desjardins BCJHL number: .34

    Desjardins NCAAE projection:
    55gp, 13-16-29 (.527)

    Nash’s NCAA 07-08 season:
    36gp, 12-20-32 (.889)

    Nash’s NCAA season projected over 55games:
    55gp, 18-31-49

    So, unless I’ve missed the boat badly Nash outdistanced the projection by a impressive margin.

  5. Showerhead says:

    LT: I clicked through to wikipedia of all places, which lists Nash’s Freshman season as 29GP 11G 14A 25Pts. I really should have checked a hockey site.

    I also didn’t even think of adjusting for games played. It’s kind of a sleepy night for me here in Winnipeg. Carry on! :)

    PS – Thanks for breaking it down stepwise. When I’m half-awake it’s nice to see where I goofed so clearly and politely.

  6. Ribs says:

    Neato. Now show me that it works.

    …Please.

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