Desjardins’ NHLE for TC Hopefuls

This is Rob Schremp back in the old days. There was a time when people questioned his maturity and attitude but I think that’s gone now.

If you’re new to this blog let me give you a brief overview. The idea here is to ignore the urge to get excited about a player because we “saw him good” and let the math tell us about a player. It’s the main reason why I don’t have Jeff Petry well ahead of guys like Chorney and Wild despite most (not all, the latest Hockey News ranks Petry about where I have him slotted) publications and blogs ranking him as the top Oilers prospect.

Since he was drafted, I’ve ranked Schremp #1 (fall 2004), #4 (spring 2005), #2 (fall 2006), and have had him at #5 since the summer of 2007 (the last three rankings, to the right).

If those lists were based solely on being NHL ready, Schremp would be #1. The math tells us that much and the math we use here is from Gabriel Desjardins. His NHL equivalencies suggest as AHL player will retain about 44% of his offense, a WHL player 30%. These numbers do not change from year to year (based on current offensive level) and assume a player would have the same time on-ice and same level of importance on the roster that he enjoyed in his minor or junior league.

It works extremely well. Desjardins’ number nailed the 2007 draft:

  • Patrick Kane, OHL: 26-36-62 (ACTUAL: 82gp, 21-51-72)
  • Sam Gagner, OHL: 16-39-55 (ACTUAL: 79gp, 13-36-49)
  • David Perron, QMJHL: 13-14-27 (ACTUAL: 62gp, 13-14-27)

Those three players went right from junior to the NHL and delivered a performance that was extremely close to the projected number. It also did a good job projecting Oilers minor league players from their 06-07 NHLE’s to what they did in the show in 07-08:

  • Robert Nilsson, AHL: 10-27-37 (ACTUAL: 71gp, 10-31-41)
  • Andrew Cogliano, NCAA: 17-19-36 (ACTUAL: 82gp, 18-27-45)
  • Kyle Brodziak, AHL: 15-20-35 (ACTUAL: 80gp, 14-17-31)

The Nilsson and Brodziak NHLE’s are solid and Andrew Cogliano exceeded his projected number by enough that we can call it a miss, although those could easily be two seasons by the same player. It’s “in the range”.

Below are the Desjardins’ NHLE for each prospect (who played in a measurable league) coming to Oilers camp. Should any of these men win an NHL job and get playing time similar to the minutes enjoyed in their league one year ago then Desjardins suggests these are the expectations (per 82gp):

Forwards

  1. Rob Schremp 11-26-37
  2. Marc Pouliot 15-19-34
  3. Bryan Lerg 16-15-31
  4. Ryan Potulny 12-15-27
  5. Jordan Eberle 15-11-26
  6. Liam Reddox 9-17-26
  7. Jamie Bates 9-17-26
  8. Jean Francois Jacques 11-14-25
  9. Tyler Spurgeon 3-22-25
  10. Gilbert Brule 11-12-23
  11. Slava Trukhno 9-13-22
  12. Jacob Micflikier 4-17-21
  13. Carl Corazzini 8-12-20
  14. Stephane Goulet 9-6-15
  15. Cory Urquhart 8-7-15
  16. Colin McDonald 6-6-12
  17. Ryan O’Marra 3-9-12
  18. Milan Kytnar 3-5-8
  19. Tim Sestito 3-4-7
  20. Garet Hunt 3-4-7
  21. Hans Benson 3-3-6

I did not include: ECHL players, 20-year old juniors, and I nicked the older AHL players like Carl Corazzini because history tells me to do it.

The list is not as impressive as one year ago. In the summer of 2007, 5 AHL players (Nilsson, Schremp, Pouliot, Jacques and Brodziak) all had NHLE’s north of 30 points and so did Alexei Mikhnov, Andrew Cogliano, Sam Gagner (his 55 points led all NHLE’s) and Slava Trukhno. That’s a pool of 9 men who came to training camp with some kind of qualification to compete for a big league job. If 30 points is the line in the sand for forwards, there are 3 players this fall who qualify.

  • Schremp and Pouliot return from one year ago. For their sakes and mine, let this be the last time we’re talking about them as possible NHLers.
  • Schremp went 14-28-42 on the PP so his being able to put up the projected Desjardins would depend heavily on getting 1line PP time.
  • Lerg is new and I think he’s been somewhat overlooked so far by Oiler fans. This guy is a shooter on a team that badly needs one and there’s a chance Lerg plays at some point this season.
  • Also of interest among the forwards are Ryan Potulny, who has a good chance to make the big club but perhaps is a little shy offensively in a race against someone like Schremp.
  • Jamie Bates does well by this metric and we don’t know much about him.
  • Gilbert Brule does not do well and that’s going to be an interesting story this fall, as he was acquired for a veteran NHL talent and if he can’t deliver offensively then he’s a energy 4th line player and that is not a lot of return for Raffi Torres.
  • Jordan Eberle is among the leading goal scorers in the group. He is unlikely to be a factor this fall and it really puts Gagner’s NHLE from a year ago in perspective.
  • Tyler Spurgeon always performs well via Desjardins but he needs to stay healthy.
  • Colin McDonald needs to learn the knuckleball.
  • Who is Hans Benson?

Defense

  1. Cody Wild 4-19-23
  2. Sebastien Bisaillon 6-13-19
  3. Taylor Chorney 2-17-19
  4. Josef Hrabal 4-12-16
  5. Robbie Bina 1-15-16
  6. Mathieu Roy 3-11-14
  7. Theo Peckham 4-5-9
  8. Jordan Bendfeld 2-7-9
  9. Jake Taylor 1-5-6
  10. Brad Farynuk 0-5-5
  11. Bryan Young 0-4-4
  12. Mike Gabinet 0-4-4
  13. Alex Plante 1-1-2

All of Tom Gilbert, Taylor Chorney, Denis Grebeshkov, Josef Hrabal and Mathieu Roy were above 20 points Desjardins a year ago. This season, we’re at 1 with two more very close at 19.

  • Wild does well by Desjardins and it’ll be interesting to see how much playing time he gets on the powerplay in Springfield. He certainly had a fine season last year.
  • Bisaillon’s season was shortened by injury but he was impressive when playing and if he returns at a similar level he’s an option based on the math.
  • Chorney is a guy whose numbers never really cover the scouting report.
  • Hrabal’s numbers came in a very good league and I can’t wait to see where he lands in pro hockey.
  • Robbie Bina could put up stunning numbers in the ECHL and you have to wonder about how far he can go.
  • If the Oilers place Roy on waivers there’s a chance someone takes him. And then there’s a chance he has a career. Seriously. Concussions are the wild card.
  • Peckham scored 2 of those goals on the powerplay, so the expectations for him at EVs in the NHL should be Smid-level.

Based on this year’s Desjardins projections, I’d say we’ll see Schremp, Pouliot, Lerg and Potulny play some in the NHL at some point in 08-09 among the forwards. From the blueline, any of the top 4 could play in the show based on the numbers.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

21 Responses to "Desjardins’ NHLE for TC Hopefuls"

  1. spOILer says:

    Considering the injuries involved in some of these numbers, they're not that bad.

    And some of the NHLEs are okay in terms of age—say Wild, Chorney & Schremp—and from the same p.o.v. I would've expected Hrabal, & Pouliot to be a little better.

    Eberle might be leading this list next year.

    Not all of Schremp, Pouliot, & JFJ can stay up, if the Oil carry 3 goalies. With team size an issue, is Robbie doomed to return to the A? Or will Pouliot have failed to improve his strength again this off-season?

  2. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: It’s going to be an interesting race. I’ve felt for some time that Pouliot is the key, in that if he comes in and plays well then the Oilers keep him because of his wide range of skills. Jacques a little bit the same way.

    But if either or both of them struggle then Schremp SHOULD make the team. Wildcard being Potulny but honestly if Schremp can’t hold back the water there then he probably doesn’t deserve it.

  3. Marchantfan says:

    I love the last d-man comment. It kind of says it all when it comes to evaluating d prospects.

  4. Lowetide says:

    marchantfan: Yeah, I think Peckham will play but it won’t be for his offense.

  5. Say No to Mike Johnson says:

    “he can’t deliver offensively then he’s a energy 4th line player and that is not a lot of return for Raffi Torres.”

    That deal was part risk management, much like Dean Lombardi trading away Lubomir Visnovsky; it’s not a deal that you can look at the return and diagnose who won or lost.

    “But if either or both of them struggle then Schremp SHOULD make the team.”

    I don’t see it. I think Schremp is climbing Mount Kidline, during a snow storm. JFJ if fighting the O’marra’s and energy players to fill a banger spot. Pouliot has a battle with Brule and Brodiak and the other reliable C’s for bottom 6 pivot jobs. No way in a bazillion years does MacTavish play Schremp in the bottom 6 when we already have the kids getting easy mins and a shit defense that can’t keep the puck out. I would love it if they did and Kevin Lowe has mentioned more than once that he wanted to emulate Buffalo (4 scorer lines) but I don’t see it.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Mike Johnson: Asset management only works when the return is useful. Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene are useful.

    As for Schremp, I think (for the first time) that he can force his way onto this roster with a strong camp. Should Pouliot stumble the club can roll 4 C’s in Horcoff, Cogliano, Brodziak and Brule/Schremp.

    That allows the club to keep Schremp as 5LW behind Penner, Gagner, Cole and Moreau while possibly platooning with Brule at center.

    Jacques can hold him up and Potulny is in the conversation but the issue is Pouliot.

    Should Marc Pouliot lock down the 4line C job then it becomes (C-LW-RW):

    Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky
    Cogliano-Gagner-Nilsson
    Brodziak-Cole-Pisani
    Pouliot-Moreau-Stortini

    and Schremp is going to have a hard time getting enough at-bats with just the leftover LW minutes. Jacques would probably be the more likely choice for that job and maybe Sestito is in that conversation.

    For the record, I have Schremp missing the cut:

    Ales Hemsky 73gp, 26-67-93
    Shawn Horcoff 71gp, 26-44-70
    Dustin Penner 82gp, 30-23-53
    Sam Gagner 78gp, 18-35-53
    Robert Nilsson 77gp, 17-34-51
    Erik Cole 71gp, 20-27-47
    Andrew Cogliano 80gp, 20-25-45
    Fernando Pisani 77gp, 17-19-36
    Kyle Brodziak 82gp, 10-20-30
    Marc Pouliot 75gp, 7-19-26
    Ethan Moreau 50gp, 10-7-17
    Ryan Potulny 50gp, 6-7-13
    Zack Stortini 75gp, 5-8-13
    JF Jacques 42gp, 3-7-10

    but I’m also a Pouliot and Jacques fan so it’s not really worth much.

  7. Say No to Mike Johnson says:

    Lowetide: I said “risk management” not “asset managment”, big difference. Both those contracts were long-term and had the POTENTIAL to be unmovable. Our depth is going to regulate Moreau on tn the 4th line. Torres was about to take a big hit in minutes and production and with a couple years and a 2.25 cap hit Lowe moved him while he still could. If this team would have benefited from a 3rd line player in return for Torres rather than Brule is another discussion.

    I think in Schremp’s case you don’t play him unless he is going to play with like-minded players. He isn’t going to mesh with a guy like Stortini but Stortini is vital to this team as sad as it sounds. The only option I can see is on the 3rd line with Penner/cole and Pisani and I can’t see Mac sacrficing a tought min line by accommodating Schremp.

    The only other option is:
    Penner Horcoff Hemsky
    Nilsson Schremp Gagner
    Cole Cogliano Pisani

    Schremp had great chem with Nilsson in W/B and Gagner was raving about Schremp as his linemate in that Euro tourny last week.

    I’m glad I don’t have Mac’s job coming up with the final 23.

  8. ClaytonMagnet says:

    Is Petry not coming to camp?

  9. Ribs says:

    Does the image of this guy pop into anyone else’s head every time anyone mentions Petry?

    No…Just me… okay.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Mike Johnson: Raffi has 2 years left, that’s hardy an unmovable contract. Besides, I’m not certain moving him was wise (we’ll see how long Ethan lasts).

    claytonmagnet: No. He’s still in college.

    ribs: lol. I remember when my kids watched those movies everyday. Ack!

  11. Doogie2K says:

    @LT: I’m not hugely worried about Brule as return for Torres for this year, because Cole does everything Raffi did better and with less headache (with the possible exception of “clean” headshots — I don’t know his record on those). It also bears pointing out that, as you suggested earlier in the summer, there were probably other reasons for dealing Raffi besides simple asset acquisition.

  12. Say No to Mike Johnson says:

    You have to wonder what the market for Torres is when you see quality NHLers getting bought out like Mark Parrish.

    What would the market be like in 4 months if Raffi continuted his statistical slide? His value was certainly going in the wrong direction and with Cole, Penner, Moreau and a bunch of kids he wasn’t going to get the chance to make a uwi.

  13. Say No to Mike Johnson says:

    He certainly isn’t a good role model for a bunch of young and impressionable kids eithers.

  14. Lowetide says:

    In terms of cap hit, Raffi is slightly more expensive (and for fewer years) than Ethan.

    So, which contract couldn’t be moved?

  15. Say No to Mike Johnson says:

    Moreau had/has negative value. Torres didn’t have much better (he got traded for a guy who scored 1 goal last season.) Better players than Torres have been bought out this season. Torres value was only going to get worse playing on the 4th line (assuming he beat Moreau out for the job) as he wasn’t going to beat out Cole, Nilsson or Penner for a spot.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Torres would have given this team a very nice, gritty option. Now I can agree that the injury and the other thing we’re not talking about made it likely he was going to be moved, but strictly as a hockey move the Brule-Torres trade has a chance to be Lowe’s worst move of the summer.

    It wasn’t the move that got him moved upstairs, though. :-)

  17. raventalon40 says:

    I believe Tambellini will do something about the ad hoc checking line and find a centerman who can compliment any combination of Cole/Penner/Moreau and Pisani/Pouliot/Brodziak as linemates, assuming Pouliot and Brodziak play occasionally on RW in 2008/09. It may be a “make or break” year for some of our prospects, but I think it would be best served to have a leadership guy like Smolinksi around since we know the farm is in good shape. The team in Springfield will have a chance at success this year and I think it would be fair to deal Pouliot and/or Roloson at this junction.

    And if there were any worries about DesLauriers at the backup position, there are still experienced goalies out there who would probably be willing to accept a 2-way contract, I think.

  18. Schitzo says:

    I’d like to think that “risk management” with Torres means getting rid of him before he can teach the kids his work ethic and party ethic.

  19. Dennis says:

    I think we can call any GM move a Lowebellini move because Kevin’s still gonna have a huge say in whatever happens.

    I think he’s out to beat the paths to make sure Katz doesn’t have to spend too much of his money to build the new rink but I also think everything has to pass through him as well.

  20. Jonathan says:

    Why anyone thinks this summer was the right time to move Torres is just beyond me. He’d been a part of this team since before the lockout, and if there was an issue in the room, he should have been moved last year.

    If there wasn’t a major issue, moving him after a career-worst shooting percentage season was kind of dumb, unless it was to a) clear cap space or because b) Brule is just that desirable a player.

  21. Doogie2K says:

    if there was an issue in the room, he should have been moved last year.

    How? His knee blew up in December, right?

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca