With the training camp roster released and secure in the knowledge we’ve done our due diligence in regard to waiver eligibity (others have done the work but this is the Al Gore for crying out loud. If John McCain can distance himself from George Bush by hiring a cute hockey Mom I can claim to have worked hard to figure out nuance on the Oilers roster) it is time to discuss the odds for each of the fringe men.
Here then are my estimates (in per cent) at this time for the Edmonton Oilers 2008-09:
- Mathieu Garon, 30: Is he the new Johnny Bower? Probably not, but there are examples of goalies who had the lights go on in their late 20′s and have a run of several years that is considered their prime. Garon may be one of them. 26-18, 2.66 .913 in 44 starts. Chances of making the Oilers: 100%.
- Dwayne Roloson, 39 in October: Another late starter, the heart of his NHL career began at 32 years old. Injuries and age are the concerns here but if he ends up being the Oilers de facto starter this season I don’t think people should be shocked by it. There’s also a slight chance he gets dealt before the season opener. 15-17-, 3.05 .901 in 38 starts. Chances of making the Oilers: 85% (allowing for trade).
- Jeff Deslauriers, 24: Oilers have signed him to a one-way deal (two years) and that means he either starts the season on the roster, on IR or he’s exposed to waivers and sent out. The Oilers usually keep these guys (a recent example of sending a similar contract down would be Mathieu Roy) and he’s a strong camp away from playing in the NHL. Chances of Making the Oilers: 75%.
- Devan Dubnyk, 22: It’s a very important season for the big man. He has a clear shot at the starting job in Springfield and needs to show that he can dominate AHL level opposition. Chances of Making the Oilers: Zero.
- Andrew Perugini, 20: We should allow ourselves to get a little excited about this guy. His SP ranked third in the OHL this past season and he played on two teams (one decent, the other quite good) and played very well for both.
- Glenn Fisher, 25: He’s now a minor league player whose rights are not specifically tied to the Oilers although they have a working relationship. He had some good seasons in college and you never know with goalies. Chances of Making the Oilers: Zero.
- Brian Pitton, 20: First year pro was mid-level talent in the OHL last season but showed flashes. His .911SP trailed Perugini’s in the same league (.918). Chances of Making the Oilers: Zero.