Riesen to Believe 2 (Goalie Edition)

With the training camp roster released and secure in the knowledge we’ve done our due diligence in regard to waiver eligibity (others have done the work but this is the Al Gore for crying out loud. If John McCain can distance himself from George Bush by hiring a cute hockey Mom I can claim to have worked hard to figure out nuance on the Oilers roster) it is time to discuss the odds for each of the fringe men.

Here then are my estimates (in per cent) at this time for the Edmonton Oilers 2008-09:

Goaltenders

  1. Mathieu Garon, 30: Is he the new Johnny Bower? Probably not, but there are examples of goalies who had the lights go on in their late 20′s and have a run of several years that is considered their prime. Garon may be one of them. 26-18, 2.66 .913 in 44 starts. Chances of making the Oilers: 100%.
  2. Dwayne Roloson, 39 in October: Another late starter, the heart of his NHL career began at 32 years old. Injuries and age are the concerns here but if he ends up being the Oilers de facto starter this season I don’t think people should be shocked by it. There’s also a slight chance he gets dealt before the season opener. 15-17-, 3.05 .901 in 38 starts. Chances of making the Oilers: 85% (allowing for trade).
  3. Jeff Deslauriers, 24: Oilers have signed him to a one-way deal (two years) and that means he either starts the season on the roster, on IR or he’s exposed to waivers and sent out. The Oilers usually keep these guys (a recent example of sending a similar contract down would be Mathieu Roy) and he’s a strong camp away from playing in the NHL. Chances of Making the Oilers: 75%.
  4. Devan Dubnyk, 22: It’s a very important season for the big man. He has a clear shot at the starting job in Springfield and needs to show that he can dominate AHL level opposition. Chances of Making the Oilers: Zero.
  5. Andrew Perugini, 20: We should allow ourselves to get a little excited about this guy. His SP ranked third in the OHL this past season and he played on two teams (one decent, the other quite good) and played very well for both.
  6. Glenn Fisher, 25: He’s now a minor league player whose rights are not specifically tied to the Oilers although they have a working relationship. He had some good seasons in college and you never know with goalies. Chances of Making the Oilers: Zero.
  7. Brian Pitton, 20: First year pro was mid-level talent in the OHL last season but showed flashes. His .911SP trailed Perugini’s in the same league (.918). Chances of Making the Oilers: Zero.

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12 Responses to "Riesen to Believe 2 (Goalie Edition)"

  1. godot10 says:

    If one looks at the schedule for the first 3 months of the season, a brutal road-heavy schedule with multiple back-to-back games, the Oilers need both Garon and Roloson playing and playing well till Christmas.

  2. raventalon40 says:

    Bryan Lerg has a brother who was nominated for the Hobey Baker award, doesn’t he? Jeff Lerg plays on the same team as Jeff Petry and with the way the Oilers picked up Robbie Bina from the same team as Chorney, it would be nice to see Jeff Lerg get a tryout with an NHL team, given his reputation as a great goalie and great team player.

    He stands at a height of 5’6 however, which is undersized for even the goaltending position, let alone as a hockey player.

    It would be interesting if Roloson came to camp and stole the starting job back from Garon. But personally, I think it’s only fair to the goalies themselves for Tambellini to choose two of them to start the season at the conclusion of training camp.

  3. jon k says:

    Pitton is an intriguing player. I think I recall reading a report that he was plagued by injuries and poor performance early last season, but then really dominated down the stretch and in Brampton’s ill-fated playoff series. The possibility of him getting healthy contributing to that is what intrigues me.

    His stats from that playoff series:
    GP 5
    SV% 0.938
    GA 10
    GAA 1.80

  4. Bank Shot says:

    According to the nhlnumbers.com, every other team has a backup on a one way contract except for the Kings, and they’ve got alot of prospects they’ll probably like to try.

    Is JDD that much of a tempting fruit that another NHL team will dump a proven NHL backup to get him?

    I think he clears waivers.

  5. Schitzo says:

    Bank shot: There’s nothing to say that a team wouldn’t just keep him as the #3 goalie, exactly as the Oilers appear to be planning.

    I guess if you’re a team with a combination of totally dry goalie pipeline and lots of kids who don’t need to go through waivers when you bring them back and forth, that could be tempting.

    Hrmm… What IS Phoenix’s goaltending depth, anyways?

  6. Asiaoil says:

    Two years ago Jason Labarberra (sp?) had elite AHL numbers that humble anything JDD has ever done and he sailed right through waivers at the end of TC. Worrying about JDD not clearing waivers is making a mighty damn big mountain out of the proverbial molehill. Only downside is that DD needs the starter slot in the AHL – I still think sending JDD to Europe is a good idea for all parties.

  7. James says:

    godot10….

    You are totally correct. The Oil need both Roli/Garon at top form until Christmas. If they can get through that section of the schedule uninjured and still in the top 8, that would be a major accomplishment. Then they can go on a run in the lighter part of the schedule.

    We need Roli all season if we are to make they playoffs. Garon can’t be expected to play 70+ games at the high level he did last year. They need 55 from Garon and 27 from Roli.

  8. toqueboy says:

    first thing that strikes me as odd is that we always talk about DD as ‘the big guy’…JDD is also a plenty big goalie at 6.4

    i also believe there is ZERO chance of jdd being picked up on waivers…the two year contract mixed with a roster spot is the opposite of decent roster management…

    which leads me to think the isle will scoop him up…ha

  9. Dennis says:

    We don’t really need to ‘save’ Roli’s salary so unless Lowe decides he wants to use that cash on a pricey 3rd line pivot vet or dman, I don’t see Roli being moved and I like him sticking around as insurance.

    I guess everything really depends on how the brass views this season and whether or not they’re relatively content with another rebuilding season. The early summer action on Hossa and the mid summer action on Jagr seemed to point that they wanted to accelerate the playoff building process or just make a splash but since then things have been quiet and every day we don’t bring in another vet D OR a third line pivot is a day that eschews the ’09 philosphy towards the let’s-see-if-we-can-get-in-with-what-we-have.

    If that potential idea changes by virture of fan and/or ownership pressure or is made obselete by an early season surge that indicates possible HCA in the first round, then all bets are off.

    Right now I’d bet the only way Roli’s moved is if we we’re taking back a pricey D vet and in exchange w we’re giving up Smid or Grebs and we’d offload Roli just for ’09 cap considerations.

    Otherwise, I think he’s safe.

  10. B.C.B. says:

    SCHITZO: PHX goaltending depth is Al Montoya. and he is not a bad start.

    Roli and Garon should be used in a tandem. With the #1 getting the better teams, not the most of the starts.

    I believed the JDD will likely be waived mid Oct/Early Nov, and noone will pick him up.

  11. jon k says:

    b.c.b.: It’s far more likely that a player will be waived as TC breaks, because that’s when every team is waiving their roster fodder, and teams are only able to put in one waiver pickup request at a time.

  12. digger says:

    You know, I think I’ll go against the grain a bit here…I think I’d like to see how JDD stacks up against Roloson in training camp and preseason before making the judgment that he isn’t fit to tie Rollie’s skates. He may not have many backers, but one backer he does have is Buchberger, if today’s quotes in the Journal are any indication. Like it or not, I think he’s going to be given an honest shot at making this team. The rest will be up to him.

    If nothing else, I think it’s going to be the most interesting camp we’ve seen in years in terms of the goaltender battle.

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