Riesen to Believe Update

This is Marc Pouliot and his TC photo from a year ago. His partner in crime JF Jacques is the first off the island for this year’s training camp hopefuls. I had Jacques’ chances of making the team at 45% before the news of the back problems came to light and that obviously impacts a few players.

So here’s the updated list as we enter TC.

Forwards

Horcoff, Hemsky, Penner, Cole, Gagner, Nilsson, Brodziak, Cogliano, Pisani and Stortini are all at 100%. That’s 10 of the 13 (or 14) slots up front. Here’s the rest who have a chance:

  1. Pouliot 96% (could be traded)
  2. Moreau 95% (injury risk)
  3. Potulny 55%
  4. Schremp 50%
  5. Brule 39%
  6. Reddox 6%
  7. Lerg 5%
  8. Sestito 1%
  9. Corazzini 1%
  10. Trukno 1%
  11. Eberle 1% (added)

Defense

Souray, Staios, Visnovsky, Gilbert and Grebeshkov are all at 100%. Here are the rest:

  1. Smid 90% (could be traded)
  2. Strudwick 90%
  3. Roy 10%
  4. Peckham 8%
  5. Hrabal 1%
  6. Young 1%
  7. Chorney 1% (added)

Goalies

  1. Garon 100%
  2. Roloson 85% (could be traded)
  3. Deslauriers 64%

The Oilers very rarely make “end of training camp” trades but I think this season could be the exception. During Kevin Lowe’s tenure as the General Manager of the club (summer 2000 to summer 2008) the Oilers made one “major” roster subtraction during TC: trading Mike Grier to Washington for draft picks October 7, 2002. Aside from that, it was doing things like placing Patrick Thoresen on waivers, etc.

Kevin Lowe said the other day that if some of these kids come in and impress the club might end up moving out a veteran or two. A “Mike Grier” style trade is possible this fall. This would be Steve Tambellini’s first trade as GM.

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46 Responses to "Riesen to Believe Update"

  1. Say No to Mike Johnson says:

    96% for Pouliot? Interesting.

    Is there a reason that you didn’t include O’marra?

  2. Lowetide says:

    I have him in a pack of forwards just outside the list here. The thing with O’Marra is the Oilers put him in the ECHL for much of last season and that probably means a season in the AHL for him.

    I have Pouliot at 96% because if he doesn’t impress this camp there’s a chance they just send him away and move along. There’ a 4line C job that looks like it is waiting for him (or Brule) so if he loses that battle I can see him leaving town.

  3. Ribs says:

    hey! Some 1%’s! LT, you softy.

    I wonder who they’d send out? Reasoners gone, Sanderson turned to dust. Who’s left? Captain Crunched?

  4. Say No to Mike Johnson says:

    You think O’marra has less than 1% chance of making the team? Crazy. I know he played in the ECHL last year but all he has to do is dump the puck in and hit defensemen to make the team on the 4th line.

    I think 96% is too high. That’s basically a lock and I don’t think it’s at all out of the question that Brule or Potulny beat him out at camp. Pouliot has a better chance of making the team than Smid? You’re not at all biased are you?

    I don’t understand what you mean by Edmonton would just move along if Pouliot doesn’t impress thus he has a high % of making the team.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Moreau, Staios and Pisani are the obvious ones but it would be suicide to deal them imo. You need actual NHL players.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Say No: Pouliot has a 1-way deal, so he’s either on the team or he’s traded. I think there’s a 4% chance he’s traded.

    As for O’Marra, he’s coming from a ways back. If he makes it that will be a helluva story.

  7. DMFB says:

    The one I’m curious about is Strudwick: is that a trade risk or do you actually think they might try to put him down in the AHL?

  8. Lowetide says:

    There are all kinds of options for Strudwick. The 10% is part of the scenario where the Oilers deal for a veteran defender with “all around skills.”

    Strudwick could be traded, sent down or released. His contract is not a huge one.

    Having said that I’m hoping he makes the team and bet he’ll play a larger than expected role on the club. He has some things the Oilers have in short supply on the current roster.

  9. mike w says:

    You watching the rookie game online, LT? After months, it’s great to actually watch the actual players play actual hockey.

    Peckham looks great.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Mike W: Yeah. Cut and paste what I wrote at HF:

    Hard to tell by the feed, but looks like Dubnyk is having a nice night. He’s made some splendid stops (19 of 20 through 2) and since I didn’t see the goal I’m going to say he’s been solid. As an aside, has that guy EVER played a game in which his team didn’t spend an extended period down by 2 men? Lordy.

    Peckham’s the real thing imo. Bob was saying he’ll be a #5 but to me he’s going to be way more than that when he matures. Good wheels, smart guy, plus shot, no fear and he can punch like a bugger.

    The skill guys haven’t scored yet but it’s only a matter of time. A kid like Eberle has certainly shown a lot tonight and Trukhno’s shown flashes too.

    Charlie Huddy’s get just “gets” it. Plays exactly like you’d think he would. Smart, surprises you once in awhile, makes the right play 99/100.

    Nice game.

    That Benson kid is certainly doing a nice impersonation of the ’74 Flyers, too. Fun game all around. I like that Pelech kid on the Flames and Backlund has all kinds of skill but isn’t dominating like I thought he would. He’s making their team, right?

    That’s what I heard anyway.

  11. mike w says:

    Yeah, and Peckham didn’t look out of place in his call-up last year, either. Makes it an easy decision for the Oilers to trade Greene.

    Bisaillion seemed all right, although I missed the first period.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Bisaillon’s fine imo. Chorney keeps taking crazy risks, he’ll have some minus numbers if he plays some pre-season games. Nice speed, though.

    Wild’s been pretty good imo, calm feet. Peckham’s experience means a lot though, I mean these guys are all about the same age and he’s miles ahead at this point.

  13. mike w says:

    Paukovich really has some ramming guys from behind problems.

  14. Lowetide says:

    The problem now is that the Flames can take liberties for the rest of the game. Not good.

    Plus of course some kid has his brain scrambled.

  15. kinger says:

    I think 96% is too high. That’s basically a lock and I don’t think it’s at all out of the question that Brule or Potulny beat him out at camp. Pouliot has a better chance of making the team than Smid? You’re not at all biased are you?

    Of course there’s bias you jackass. The blog is called “Lowetide” for a reason.

  16. Lowetide says:

    How hard is this to understand? Pouliot has a one-way contract so he’s pretty much a lock. There’s a small chance he will flop and I think they might cut bait and trade him.

    As for Smid, I think there’s a slightly better chance the Oilers make some kind of room on the blueline that will impact him.

    The possible moves are:

    1. Peckham or another Dman showing enough to push him for his roster spot. The identical thing happened a year ago with Tom Gilbert vs. Smid.

    2. The Oilers have a chance to improve the veteran depth and Smid is a part of the package.

    It’s extremely unlikely to happen. It’s a bet.

  17. mike w says:

    Kinger! Been a while since I’ve seen your comments…

    I also like this Ryan “Laryy” MacMurchy fellow tonight. Has some pep.

  18. Lowetide says:

    A few observations:

    1. I thought Dubnyk looked good tonight.
    2. The college kids have an advantage even if they’re first year pro’s. Lerg and Chorney weren’t world beaters by any means but their age and experience certainly showed in this game as compared to a kid like Cornet or Eberle who both showed well considering everything.
    3. I liked the blue tonight overall with Peckham the star and Bisaillon doing well too. Cody Wild is a solid prospect and Chorney was 4th of 4 on the list but did alright too.
    4. Not much finish I thought, with McDonald, Trukhno and Eberle having the best chances.
    5. Hard to get a feel for the forwards overall because of the penalties and lack of scoring chances.
    6. Paukovich is massive and could be useful but that Bertuzzi temper is going to cost him.
    7. The number of Oilers prospects in this game who are older than Gagner AND Cogliano is stunning. Sometimes I get caught up in watching these kids develop but the Gagner/Cogliano lesson is that if they’re that good they’re already there.
    8. If I had to pick one player from tonight who surprised me with his effort and ability it was Huddy’s kid. I know he isn’t physical but he did all the little things a guy like O’Marra is going to have to do if he’s going to have an NHL career.

  19. B.C.B. says:

    Hello all you technical wizards,

    I am having problems watching the live feed. I spent two hours trying to download the right plug-ins, etc . . .

    Could someone tell what to use for the next game? I use an Mac with OSX

    thanks a bunch

  20. Asiaoil says:

    Well Peckham and Dubnyk looked like NHL players while Eberle and Cornet (surprisingly) looked like kids with promise. Chorley (friggin Rod kills me) is a couple of years away from making an NHL team. The rest of our prospects are suspects.

    Sorry LT but I still don’t see anything special in Truk, he and the rest of the forwards who played to gether in SPR (McDonald, OMarra and Goulet, Paukovich) looked like scrubs.

    That’s my take….Dubnyk and Peckham are near term, Eberle and Chorney are a couple years away, Cornet could bear watching. The rest….who cares.

  21. Doogie2K says:

    Where was this feed, anyway? Oilers’ site?

  22. Lowetide says:

    bcb: The fact that you’ve asked a technical question on my blog may well be the funniest thing ever. I just sent my son to bed, he could probably help you but my wife would kill me.

    Asia: Not much different than the update I posted before yours except for Trukhno. I’ve been wrong on so many prospects you should probably bet against me 9/9 times but I’ll bet on Trukhno for another year without losing any sleep. I thought he (Trukhno) was held back by his center tonight big time, as was Eberle.

    Buddy was nowhere to be found.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Doogie: yeah it was on the Oilers site. They may archive it, although maybe they won’t either. It wasn’t mid-season form but I thought it was a fun game. My only regret is that I missed most of a no-hitter.

    By a Cub pitcher! The last one (I think) was Milt Pappas 35 years ago and it would have been perfect except Bryan McCabe’s dad was an ump. :-)

  24. Asiaoil says:

    LT – I thought Truk lost a lot of one on one battles and if you can’t win them at this level it doesn’t look good for you. Teh guy who surprised a lot was Cornet – lot more battle to the kid that was advertised or expected. I’d bet he has a good year in the Q if he stays healthy.

    As for picking prospects – simple fact is most drafted after the 2nd round don’t make it – so a guy like Truk is doing well to even be in the conversation. The non-NCAA pipeline is looking pretty slim for the Oilers right now though.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Asia: It’s funny, I was looking at that today. The guys we’d normally be talking about now are either IN the NHL (Gagner, Cogliano) injured or coming off injury (Plante) or waiting for their season to start (Nash, Petry).

    Chorney’s an interesting fellow but based on tonight I’d be surprised if he sees more than 1 or 2 pre-season games and could certainly see him getting sent out right after the JMC next Sunday afternoon.

  26. B.C.B. says:

    Lowetide: I consider this the site with the most intelligent reader (and those least likely to laugh at me about not understanding the internet). Even more humorous is the fact that my father (in his late fifties) could help me and your son could but I am lost on my own.

  27. Asiaoil says:

    Yeah Chorney’s got a ways to go but he’s probably got some upside – him and Peckham might be a nice pair some day. Was I seeing things with Cornet? I thought the kid had a nice game…

  28. Schitzo says:

    Asia: If having lousy farm depth is the cost of graduating Nilsson/Cogliano/Gagner/Brodziak/Stortini, we’ll just have to suck it up and try not to cry too hard :)

  29. Schitzo says:

    bcb: what browser are you using?

  30. Asiaoil says:

    Schitzo – sure our crummy AHL depth is entirely the result of graduating Nilsson/Cogliano/Gagner/Brodziak/Stortini. Anyone leftover from last year probably isnt an NHL player except for Peckham and Dubnyk.

  31. Lowetide says:

    Asia: No, Cornet looked really good to me too. There was an exchange at one point where he just kept getting the puck back from the Flames with hard work and good positioning. It was kind of funny because he looked like the runt of the litter and they were trying to play keepaway (like you do with a younger guy’s hat or some such) but the guy kept winning the puck.

    I bet it happened three times in one sequence.

  32. B.C.B. says:

    schitzo: I’ve tried FireFox and Safari, both don’t seem to work. Also tried to use RealTIme Player, Windows Media Player, and downloaded the WM Components that the Oilers’ website said I needed.

  33. Asiaoil says:

    Well Cornet came in with super low expectations – that’s what you get with a 5th rounder? and Central Scouting basically says you’re slow, timid and injury prone – but he’s someone who may be worth keeping an eye on for the rest of the year.

  34. Bank Shot says:

    “I’d put him(Chorney) in much the same category as I put Andrew Cogliano in last year. He’s a guy who is going to be awful close,” said Oilers head coach Craig MacTavish.

    Cogliano didn’t dominate the Bears vs. Rooies game by any means. Perhaps Chorney will have more to show in camp.

  35. rickibear says:

    “or waiting for their season to start (Nash, Petry)”

    Don’t forget Omark who was top 40 in the SEL in scoring last year as a 20 Yr old. The only one 20 or under in the top 40.

    Cornet 2nd overall pick in the 2006QMJHL bantam draft. Was behind 2 others at his position C on the team. One an older leading scoring center (Veilleux) and the other, the Guy Carboneau trophy winner(fortier). Cormier usually got the 3rd line C role. So he would slot on the wing. Still the teams third leading scoring forward.

    I am hoping he is a steal.

  36. uni says:

    You guys have no idea how much I want Cornet to make it, and how much I’m going to be rooting for him heh heh.

    See link here.

  37. Isayoshi says:

    b.c.b : Try Flip4Mac

  38. B.C.B. says:

    Thanks everyone.

  39. Say No to Mike Johnson says:

    “How hard is this to understand? Pouliot has a one-way contract so he’s pretty much a lock.”

    Does the same logic apply for JDD and Roy?

    Pouliot’s 1 way contract doesn’t mean shit. If Kevin Lowe will move Moreau or Pisani or another vet because one of the kids step up surely Marc Pouliot isn’t a lock because he has a 1 way.

    Interesting that Cornet caught the eye of some in here. I actually thought he was one of the worst players out there. O’marra was horrible too.

  40. Say No to Mike Johnson says:

    Lines tonight VS GB.

    Philippe Cornet
    Jordan Eberle
    Bryan Lerg

    Les Reaney
    Ryan O’Marra
    David Rohlfs

    Milan Kytnar
    Marc-Andre Bernier
    Justin Chwedoruk

    Jamie Bates
    Garet Hunt
    Geoff Paukovich

    Taylor Chorney – Alex Plante
    Milan Maslonka – Cody Wild
    Tony Pisano – Jordan Bendfeld
    Kalvin Sagert – Dalton Prout

    Bryan Pitton
    Andrew Perugini

  41. George B says:

    Wow MA Bernier…..someone I always thought had a future but didn’t catch on.

  42. Scott says:

    My guess is the coaches like Cornet’s game, too, as he gets the bump to the number one line (as does Lerg).

  43. Lowetide says:

    Say No: Yes. Pouliot, Roy and Deslauriers are in the same position. The difference in their percentages have to do with:

    1. Roster makeup
    2. Quality of player
    3. Injury history
    4. Age of roster at their position
    5. Skill duplication

  44. Moose says:

    On O’Marra: Did anyone else notice him on the dot last night? I only saw the last two periods, but every time he took a draw he was murdering them. Clean wins straight back to the d-men. Plus, he’s a right-handed (a la Stoll).

  45. Say No to Mike Johnson says:

    Wouldn’t you agree though that the fact that Lowe/Tambo/Mac are going to go with the best players regardless (they will move a vet if the have to) makes Pouliot’s 1-way irrelevant. Moreau and Pisani are on a 1-way too right?

    I hope for Pouliot’s sake that he doesn’t go in camp thinking he is a 96% lock to make the team. Nothing is going to be handed to him.

  46. Lowetide says:

    Oh yes, certainly. But they also have to have an eye to team need as well.

    In Roy’s case, Strudwick duplicates in some ways his skill set (although Mathieu Roy is a pretty good hockey player when not auditioning to become the next Super Dave Osborne) and that will impact him.

    Deslauriers I nicked because it seems to me that NHL teams all have two NHL guys and then a good prospect in waiting so JDD may well be able to pass through waivers.

    Pouliot, of those three, has imo a much better chance of sticking.

    But you’re right, he needs to show up big time.

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