AHL EV Points (Forwards)

Last season I had a look at EV points by Oilers’ AHL prospects over three seasons (I’ll list the stats below). I found it to be very interesting because the numbers identified a big spike in production (Brodziak) that was followed by a strong TC (fall 2007) and a breakthrough into the NHL by said player.

Since we have that evidence (to be fair, JF Jacques also had a spike season by this metric and we’re still waiting) I thought it might be an idea to follow the EV numbers this season (5 games at a time) to see if we can identify anyone making a big step forward for the Falcons.

EV points are an interesting tracking tool when looking at minor league players. The really skilled kids are going right to the NHL and the minor leagues are a world populated by players who must work on one or more things.

A player like Rob Schremp should always do well on the PP but is he progressing at EVs? What about Pouliot? Were there indications that Nilsson and Brodziak would come out of the pack last fall based on EV scoring? Pretty much all of the forwards who spend significant amounts of time in the AHL are going to be playing at EV strength when they arrive at the NHL. Knowing how they perform in this area when they’re in the AHL has value.

Here they are by year, anything over .500 (my own line in the sand) in bold:

05-06 EVs

  1. Brad Winchester 40gp, 10-8-18 .450
  2. Kyle Brodziak 55gp, 9-11-20 .363
  3. JF Jacques 65gp, 11-11-22 .338
  4. Marc Pouliot 65gp 9-12-21 .323
  5. Zack Stortini 64gp, 2-8-10 .156

All of these men have played at least 50 NHL games now and none of them can claim offense as a strong calling card in the show. None of them cleared .500 in this season and all but Brodziak have seen their careers sputter since spring 2006. The leader in this group for goals scored (career) in the NHL is Kyle Brodziak with 15.

06-07 EVS
  1. JF Jacques 29gp, 6-12-18 .621
  2. Kyle Brodziak 62gp, 18-20-38 .559
  3. Robert Nilsson 69gp, 10-27-37 .536
  4. Alexei Mikhnov 27gp, 3-10-13 .481
  5. Marc Pouliot 33gp, 7-7-14 .424
  6. Tyler Spurgeon 34gp, 4-10-14 .412
  7. Rob Schremp 69gp, 8-17-25 .362
  8. Zack Stortini 47gp, 6-4-10 .213

Jacques had a nice 30 games here but didn’t have anything similar in either season that bookends it. Brodziak and Nilsson gave an indication of the future and in fact if we adopt .500 as a dividing line for these kids (and throw Jacques out the window) then the exercise works. Schremp’s AHL debut was a struggle and it is reflected here and at EVs in the minor leagues Pouliot is porridge both years. Stortini’s value doesn’t show up in the stats.

07-08 EVS
  1. Liam Reddox 51gp, 11-14-25 .490
  2. Rob Schremp 65gp, 8-20-28 .431
  3. Marc Pouliot 50gp, 11-10-21 .420
  4. Tyler Spurgeon 12gp, 1-4-5 .417
  5. JF Jacques 37gp, 5-9-14 .378
  6. Stephane Goulet 27gp, 6-3-9 .333
  7. Ryan O’Marra 29gp, 2-5-7 .241
  8. Slava Trukhno 51gp, 3-9-12 .235
  9. Troy Bodie 53gp, 7-5-12 .226
  10. Colin McDonald 63gp, 7-7-14 .222

Interesting for several reasons. Reddox was a solid OHL scorer at the same time as Schremp and at least at EVs has done a better job offensively in 07-08 (although the difference isn’t huge, 4 total points). They were not that far apart in their draft seasons in terms of points-per-game. Pouliot runs in place well below the .500 line and Tyler Spurgeon shows up as a player of interest despite the injuries.

08-09 EVs
  1. Rob Schremp 3gp, 0-3-3 1.000
  2. Gilbert Brule 3gp, 2-0-2 .667
  3. Slava Trukhno 5gp, 1-2-3 .600
  4. Stephane Goulet 2gp, 1-0-1 .500
  5. Guillaume Lefebvre 4gp, 0-2-2 .500
  6. Ryan Potulny 5gp, 2-0-2 .400
  7. Tim Sestito 5gp, 2-0-2 .400
  8. Colin McDonald 5gp, 1-1-2 .400
  9. Tyler Spurgeon 5gp, 0-2-2 .400
  10. Liam Reddox 5gp, 0-2-2 .400

Schremp has been outstanding at EVs in his 3 games back in the AHL, with Brule (now injured) and Trukhno also having a nice beginning to this season. It’s very early and Spurgeon is down the list but he’s a player to follow this season at EVs imo. The other F prospects we talk about (Lerg, Paukovich, O’Marra) have yet to register a point.

The Falcons have 4 very interesting forwards we can follow in 08-09. Schremp, Brule, Trukhno and Spurgeon are the ones I’ll follow closely, with Lerg still a player of interest based on training camp. McDonald needs to pick up the pace in order to enter the conversation, Reddox is porridge right now and Ryan O’Marra must feel he’s in Camp Granada. I remain convinced the Oilers love Tim Sestito.

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14 Responses to "AHL EV Points (Forwards)"

  1. doritogrande says:

    Great work as always, but Brule is 2-1-3 in his three outings.

    http://stats.theahl.com/stats/player.php?id=2208

    Had a goal and assist in his first game, another goal in #2. He went +1 in game 3 before the injury.

  2. Lowetide says:

    dorito: I have him assisting on Cody Wild’s PP goal, meaning he’s 2-0-2 at EVs.

    Is this incorrect?

  3. doritogrande says:

    LT:

    Yeah. There’s my mistake.

  4. raventalon40 says:

    Tim Sestito seems to be is one of those Pisani-Spurgeon-Petersen kind of guys, real Oiler-type grinders. Could be why they love Justin Chwedoruk so much as well.

  5. Bryanbryoil says:

    Good article LT, it should be of not that all 3 of Schremp’s ES assists are primary assists as well.

    Brule’s speed really is tough for AHL caliber players to handle. He’s the opposite of Schremp thus far, Schremp is looking pass first, 2nd, and 3rd while Brule is looking shot 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

    They could really combine to be a dynamic combo in the AHL.

    The question however is this, if both dominate the AHL and show kid line like chemistry, do we somehow make room for them to be called up together down the road???

    I for one think that Stortini’s days in the top 12 are numbered, and having these 2 on a line with Brodziak, Penner, or even MacIntyre may not be such a bad thing.

    We can afford a few more smallish skill guys as long as we have Mac in the line-up or the threat of Mac in the PB.

  6. Jeanshorts And Baggedmilk says:

    Mr Lowetide. Please come to our blog and teach how to speak in proper English. Your posts are always insightful, and make us look like the retarded cousin that gets left home from family dinners.

    -baggedmilk

  7. Matt N says:

    “Mr Lowetide. Please come to our blog and teach how to speak in proper English. Your posts are always insightful, and make us look like the retarded cousin that gets left home from family dinners.”

    Winner of the unintentionally funny post of the day.

  8. raventalon40 says:

    I think it was intentional.

  9. Bank Shot says:

    “We can afford a few more smallish skill guys as long as we have Mac in the line-up or the threat of Mac in the PB.”
    Or a top ten powerplay that scares the living daylights out of opposing coaches.

  10. Bruce says:

    Right on, BS. Friday night in Calgary was a perfect example.

  11. Bryanbryoil says:

    We can have both Bankshot. That’s the beauty of this team.

    We can kill them on teh scoreboard and then let Big Mac do his job if needed late in the game.

    In the postseason, the PP will be our “enforcer”. It would allow us to run teams like the Flames and Ducks off the ice if they decide to play penalty filled hockey.

  12. George B says:

    A couple things.

    1. Did you just use the word “porridge” twice in one post? I think Mrs. Lowetide needs to feed you a bigger breakfast.

    2. I think this stats tracking is good but in some ways misleading. EV PPG is a nice indicator but some of it has to be reflective of your personnel. The Brule trade makes Schremp’s numbers go up and a player like McDonald go down depending on linemates.

    Would you not agree?

  13. Bryanbryoil says:

    George B:
    Schremp played 1 game with Brule, and Brule wasn’t involved in the play despite being on the ice. Trukhno got it to Schremp, and Schremp found the pinching d-man for a goal.

    The goal is on Youtube as Jake Taylor’s 1st goal.

    So while they’ve played a single AHL game together, none of Schremp’s (or Brule’s) points are a direct result of the other playerls contributions to date.

    I expect that to change as early as this weekend, but until now, that worry isn’t a legit one.

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