Flames at Oilers, G4/08-09

Word in the thread below that Marc Pouliot was on 2line RW at practice today. I’m saying the rosary and am in Calgary rounding up virgins (no easy feat, apparently) for sacrifice.

I haven’t cheered for someone named Poo this much since I read my kids the Winnie the Pooh books a decade ago. Also (from Quain below) Gagner is day-to-day and may not play tonight.

I like this team, even with the holes. There was an item in the paper today about Souray having an injury and he didn’t play after a time last night, so possibly Smid draws in and gets a chance tonight on D.

If the Oilers win this game, that’s a tell. Even 4 games in. These games have not been against the Oakland Seals, these games have shown the team has some weaknesses but appear to have some new strengths.

Depth up front, more NHL players than normal, and a kickass powerplay.

Now, back to the Pouliot project. Hail Mary, full of grace, the lord is with thee……

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202 Responses to "Flames at Oilers, G4/08-09"

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  1. PerformanceOil says:

    The great thing though, is that most (all?) of the holes are due to inexperience, rather than lack of ability.

    Give this team some water and time, and we are going to have one hell of a bloom on our hands.

    Poo(h) is damn near impossible to cheer against. If Poo keeps showing the heart of his namesake, he’ll get plenty of the MacLovin’.

  2. raventalon40 says:

    Playing with Nilsson won’t hurt Pouliot’s chances either :-D

    I hope Strudwick, Stortini and MacIntyre get some retribution on Giordano and Bertuzzi.

    LT: What do you think of what happened to Dave of Covered in Oil?

  3. Paper Designer says:

    I don’t really see why Pouliot is being bumped up ahead of Penner. Penner has shown he can play a more offensive role in the past; or is this organization really that determined to turn a four million dollar contract into a checker?

  4. PerformanceOil says:

    is this organization really that determined to turn a four million dollar contract into a checker?

    Salary isn’t MacT’s concern. His only concern should be putting up the W’s.

    EPP are absolutely flying out there, and now that Pisani is winning draws, there isn’t any real compelling reason to break up the line (though I would like to see what the seemingly improved Penner could do with Horcoff and Hemsky).

  5. raventalon40 says:

    Penner and Cole are viewed as the most interchangable. I don’t know why Penner isn’t being considered for the 2nd line minutes, but I think Pouliot is more of a comparable for Gagner than Penner is and that might be the reasoning behind trying to keep the kid-line as “intact” as possible. That being said, Penner would be more effective on the 2nd line and the 3rd line – which is precisely why Penner stays on the 3rd line: he’s more responsible than M.Poo

  6. Lowetide says:

    raven: From what I can tell, it was a series of things involving:

    1. A clear and sincere willingness to protect the rights holders, the established electronic press.

    2. A long established control over everything without regard to specific issue becoming a news item (this has happened before btw, and in fact various banner-makers have had similar treatment).

    3. Youth in a position of authority.

  7. raventalon40 says:

    Youth in a position of authority.

    Please explain further.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Young people tend to be a little freewheeling with their power. Just because you are in charge of something doesn’t mean you need to bring a hammer to every exchange.

  9. Doogie2K says:

    Young people tend to be a little freewheeling with their power. Just because you are in charge of something doesn’t mean you need to bring a hammer to every exchange.

    I always preferred an axe myself, but then I never levelled my Paladin past the early 20s.

    Wait, what were we talking about, here?

  10. raventalon40 says:

    So basically, the forgot the first half of:

    “Tread lightly, but carry a big stick.”

    A long established control over everything without regard to specific issue becoming a news item

    How about here? What specific issue are you talking about?

    The blog post itself as an example of the blogger’s freedom to produce said item, or the issue of non-Oilers sponsored news making it into the arena of public discourse?

  11. raventalon40 says:

    I always preferred an axe myself, but then I never levelled my Paladin past the early 20s.

    Screw the paladin, acquire a Panzerjaeger! (That’s German for Bazooka, for those of you who are wondering.)

  12. Traktor says:

    Penner lead our team in scoring last season, averaged 26 goals the past 2 seasons. Pouliot has 19 points in 81 games. I don’t understand the reasoning for Pouliot to get the bump over Penner.

  13. raventalon40 says:

    My understanding is that Penner is more defensively responsible. Also, that Pouliot is more of a comparable to Gagner than Penner, since MacT wants to keep the kid line together.

    Mind you, I would prefer to see Penner on the 2nd line as well.

  14. Lowetide says:

    There have been reports over the years of some “interesting” treatment of fans with signs. There have also been pb passes denied because of changes real or imagined.

    I’m not making this stuff up, it’s readily available in my circle of influence and I’m a long way from being close to anyone in the Oilers organization.

  15. Doogie2K says:

    Screw the paladin, acquire a Panzerjaeger!

    Is that in the new expansion? How does it handle AOE tanking?

  16. raventalon40 says:

    changes real or imagined

    Depends on how strong your imagination is then, eh? ;-)

  17. Bank Shot says:

    “I’m not making this stuff up, it’s readily available in my circle of influence and I’m a long way from being close to anyone in the Oilers organization.”

    Yea Lowetide, I think that it’s pretty evident to anyone who pays attention.

    I believe a few of these incidents have even been published by the MSM.

    The GestapOil’s treatment of a fan with a “Trade Lowe” name bar taped to his sweater springs to mind.

  18. Traktor says:

    I thought the whole reasoning for keeping Pouliot over Schremp was because Pouliot was more reliable in a checking role yet a here we are a few weeks later and Pouliot has found himself in the top 6 for no other reason than he can’t be trusted in a checking role with Pisani and Moreau.

  19. Schitzo says:

    If there was ever a chance to see if Cole really is a better fit at RW, it’s tonight. If you don’t want to break up the third line, so be it, put Pouliot on LW with Horc and Hemsky and they’ll cover his ass just fine.

  20. raventalon40 says:

    Why the atmosphere of fear, though? We all say, “we understand their need to protect investor’s rights” and all that can of worms… but protect them… from what? The fans?

  21. Lowetide says:

    Another conspiracy against poor Schremp. Bastards!! They’ll be sorry when Oliver Stone makes the movie.

  22. William says:

    re: Pouliot > Penner for the 2nd spot

    1. MacT is still high on his new 3rd line. Even though they don't always seem to have apparent chemistry, they have been playing pretty well and MacT has said so publicly.

    2. If the Oilers are running the 3rd line out against the toughest or 2nd toughest competition, I can see why MacT would rather have Penner on that line that Pouliot for now.

    3. 2nd line is built around speed and playmaking. Pouliot is more of a finesse guy than Penner, and MacT seems high on the finesse the 2nd line has been bringing against soft competition since the kids have played together.

    For the most part, I can agree with what MacT's doing. Penner may put up more points, but with the jigsaw puzzle that is currently our lines, I believe his strengths are better used on the 3rd line than 2nd. If anything, I think 27 should get a shot on the first line instead of 26. Cole has looked alright but the 1st line doesn't look like a good fit yet. I'm wondering how much of it has to do with Hemsky and his lack of intensity so far. The 3rd line, I have to admit despite reservations on that grouping, has shown good flashes of tilting the puck the right way and keeping it in the o-zone.

  23. Traktor says:

    Penner Horc Hemsky
    Nilsson Cogliano Cole
    Moreau Pouliot Pisani

    No players playing out of position

    Cole Horc Hemsky
    Nilsson Cogliano Pouliot
    Moreau Pisani Penner

    4 players playing out of position

    Why make things more complicated then they have to be?

  24. raventalon40 says:

    Has Poo played LW before?

  25. B.C.B. says:

    Here is a suggestion for MacBlender:

    Penner-Horc-Hemsky
    Nilisson-Cogs-Cole
    Moreau-Bodz-Pisani
    HuggyBear-Poo-SMac

    This seems like the most obvious line combinations. It provides a balance of skill, size, Scoring touch on the top 6, and one service able third line. SMac will sit most of the time so the forth line looks ok. PLUS every one is in their right positions (I think), and that is a novel concept this year.

    Do you folks think 44 will play tonight? if not i’d suggest:
    Vish-Staios
    Gilbert-Grebs
    Smid-Strudwick

    Lastly, Lowetide (the prospects guru) if 89 and 44 are hurt for a while whom gets the call up?

  26. Bank Shot says:

    MacIntyre-Brodziak-Stortini.

    Poor Kyle. ;p

  27. raventalon40 says:

    b.c.b: Don’t play Vish with Staios! Play him with Strudwick.

  28. Traktor says:

    Haha. I’m not even a Schremp fan either, I’m just even less of a fan of Reasoner-lite.

  29. raventalon40 says:

    We should sign Mark Smith.

  30. B.C.B. says:

    raventalon40 : I am trying to split up the two weakest d-man so the don’t get eaten alive by the Flames. But since we have last change, maybe staois-smid won’t be such a bad idea, and they have played alot together.

    I would like to see what Smid could do playing with Vish. But they would have to go agianst top competition and Smid would be gang rapped by Ingila and Bert.

  31. Dennis says:

    Still no goals at EV’s for the 10 line — 18 was on for Horc’s marker in Ana — but you can be sure they’re gonna be kept together so that’s one thing that influences who gets to play with Nilssiano.

    And then you probably have macT wanting to keep together the new 34 line as well and hopefully they get better and better even though they were pretty awful the other night in Ana.

    I’m sorta thinking this is a bit of a showcase for 78 just to see if another team bites. It’s either that or macT just wants to keep together his two tough min lines.

  32. William says:

    Hmm, just saw Dennis’s post over at Mc’s site. Didn’t realize Penner got owned so hard during the Ducks game. The 3rd line seemed to drive possession vs. Calgary, although maybe the numbers won’t bear that out either…

  33. spOILer says:

    While I’d prefer Brodz to get the shot, he’d be better in the middle, and they want a winger for the 2nd line.

    Pou makes sense on the 2nd over Penner and Cole, because you still want to give the younger player the softest minutes you can. Why change up all 3 lines? He may help with face-offs there. And there’s still the MacBlender possibilities.

    Seem some people get all caught up in the term “3rd line”.

  34. raventalon40 says:

    b.c.b: I have concerns playing Staios with anyone who is considered an offensive D-man. Not that I think I can do better than Steady Steve, but I think the Oilers can. If Lubo is gonna rush the puck we need someone to be the calm to fall back on – Staios is not that calm. Staios, I would say, is closer to an offensive Tom Gilbert type than a defensive Scott Ferguson type – despite what some people might like to think.

  35. toqueboy says:

    i agree with those who are calling out, “showcase”

    i was thinking about the JD start yesterday, coupled with the poo promotion today…is it possible that rather than trading roli, we package jd and pouliot together for something?

    obviously, there are depth and future considerations there with holes in a lineup, but i just can’t see roli going anywhere anytime soon, and i’m sure there’s a market out there for two reasonably well groomed youngsters…

  36. raventalon40 says:

    toqueboy: Nice layout on your web page, I like!

    As for the theory about the youth package: I think there is a higher possibility of Schremp and Smid being traded at this point just based on their ability to help an organization right away.

    Schremp has proven much at an NHL level but he has shown that he is a good PP specialist at least at the AHL level. In the past, guys like this (Jani Rita) have garnered at least a Dick Tarnstrom in a trade.

    As for Smid, he is arguably more well groomed than Poo at this point, and the fact that Smid has so much potential left being a young D-man, might mean he would get a higher return in a trade than Schremp or Poo.

    DesLauriers, if traded, would garner a considerably lower return considering there are a lot of goalies on the market, even though he is a cheaper alternative than Khabibulin, Tellqvist, or Thomas. This is based on experience and reputation alone, I think. That’s a good thing – I.M.O. the Oilers can give DesLauriers a lot better quailty development time as a backup to Garon than as a questionable #2 or #3 on a team that doesn’t rely on goaltending as much.

    The Oilers rely on goaltending – a lot!

  37. DaHoosman says:

    Any chance anyone know where you can stream the game? I’m stuck in the library and need some procrastination fodder.

    God, I love the Oilers.

  38. B.C.B. says:

    cbc streams games on their website: i am watching the Ott game right now

  39. Kara says:

    Couple notes:

    - You guys remember that interview Penner gave where he threw out the old Ice Hockey references about the top line last year? I believe it was in December/January when the top line chemistry truly came together. It's only the fourth game in, 26 will find his way with 10 & 83 and I suspect he will do so sooner than Penner did.

    - According to one of the articles in the Sun, 12 was skating with a bad foot in last nights game. Not bad for a guy who was freakin' flying out there. We need to keep him.

    - And for NHL streams, check out:

    http://www.myp2pforum.eu/nhl-icehockey

  40. raventalon40 says:

    No freakin’ kidding. I like how Nilsson has been playing lately.

  41. honkey says:

    It sux having to be up at 4am just to be able to watch the game live.
    Lets hope it will be worth it.

  42. DeBakey says:

    Mark Lee & Mark Crawford
    It doesn't get any worse than that

  43. Lord Bob says:

    Ladies and gentlemen, the Marc Pouliot At Right Wing show.

  44. Lowetide says:

    Well that was ugly. No flow at all, so many penalties. The Oilers are a bit lucky to be 0-2 at this point imo.

    Oilers have had 20-minute stretches in the past two years that look just like that and several times were able to turn it around. The question is can they turn it around and win against a quality team like the Flames?

  45. Dennis says:

    The Oil are really playing with house money in this game: they’re 3-0 and already won R1 of the BOA so I won’t be shocked if Cgy ends up winning this by say 5-2.

    All that being said, there’s little excuse you can give for that kind of effort. The first thing is that you have the same crew from last night’s game and keenan and bertuzzi tried to work them and it appears to have worked.

    But that’s only half of it.

    Sometimes it really comes down to something as simple as which team wants to work for it and in a period where Horcoff was outworked on no less than three occasions it’s no surprise we’re getting our ass kicked.

    We’ll know within the first 5 min of the second period if the Oilers intend on making it a game.

  46. Dennis says:

    These aren’t your older brothers Flames, though, LT.

    Bertuzzi and Cammalari added much needed skill but Craig Conroy no longer appears to be Craig Conroy and the defense is easier to deal with.

    Plus, there’s Kipper.

    That’s not to say we’ll come back because I personally believe we won’t but it’s not as hard to come back on them as it used to be.

    I think the Oilers came out a little complacement and self-satisfied.

  47. trader says:

    Could Hemsky and Horcoff be any worse…unbelievable

  48. Bruce says:

    The question is can they turn it around and win against a quality team like the Flames?

    Well a few things have to happen first. Like Shawn Horcoff and Ales Hemsky need to pull their heads out of their holes, Ethan Moreau needs to stop beating the puck square, and Mathieu Garon needs to start passing it to the blue team. 4 GV for Garon alone in the 1st, 7-2 overall in GV which considering the Oil had the puck about 5% of the time is no mean feat. Ugly, ugly, ugly period.

    Shots: 17-3, Corsi 32-10.

    And how the fuck do Iginla and Ugly get assists on a goal when the last four guys to touch the puck were all Oilers? Garon made the first save off of Strudwick, but couldn’t control the rebound and Struds banked ‘er home. All this while killing a too-many-men penalty. Fuck.

    Uhh, guys?? Game time, 8 p.m.

    If I’m MacT 51-46-33 start the second period, they had one shift and it was the only time the puck was in Calgary’s end of the ice.

  49. Coach pb9617 says:

    Is there a reason that Grebs seems to be matched against Bertuzzi constantly?

  50. Coach pb9617 says:

    You know what? Stevie Mac can stay.

    And oh yeah – nice hit Cole. Now, can someone light up Bertuzzi?

  51. Aram Dellalian says:

    SMAC OWNAGE! oh man

  52. honkey says:

    Wow, what did Kipper do on that goal. Just went the wrong way end left the whole goal open.

  53. Coach pb9617 says:

    Well, to be honest, no one, not even Kiprusoff, expects the Spanish Inquisition.

  54. Aram says:

    oh man… MAGIC from the 78-34-18 group tonight. Here’s to hoping they stay together and keep it goin…

  55. B.C.B. says:

    oh look: MacBlender breaks up the Pisani-Moreau-Penner, with a real centre and they score two goals. Weird?

  56. Coach pb9617 says:

    Holy hands MAP.

    Poo gotz skillz. Schremp can suck my taint.

  57. danny says:

    congrats to you poo-ologists.

    78s head has caught up to speed and it looks like hes now an NHLer.

  58. Aram says:

    Easily Cole’s best game so far as well.

  59. gary b says:

    COGOALIANO!

  60. Coach pb9617 says:

    Pooooooooooooo

    Man is he a beaut.

  61. Lowetide says:

    1. Kipper’s in trouble. I take no great joy in it (he’s a Finn, right?) but these are not good goals for the most part. The Moreau tally saw him lose his net and he appeared to take himself out of the Pisani goal.

    2. Pouliot’s shown some try tonight and he always seems to do it when two NHLers are alongside. He seems to be an end-of-the-offense guy but can help a team.

    3. Cogliano. Jesus.

  62. PDO says:

    LT, I’m no goalie….

    But maybe someone like Bruce can chime in here, but the Cogs goal is all about how fast Cogliano made him move laterally, is it not?

    I don’t think many goaltenders make that save.

    … and I do love watching him implode :)

  63. Coach pb9617 says:

    We will remember this second period as the period owned by Poo.

  64. grease trap says:

    A Pooriod, if I may.

  65. Bruce says:

    No Greasetrap, the first was a pooriod. Piss pooriod.

    PDO: Right you are about how hard it is for the goalie on a play like that, guy flying across laterally who shoots back against the grain. Gretz used to do that a tonne, usually along the ice just as the goalie was pushing off on that trailing foot, but if the guy can hit the top corner like Cogs did there it’s still a tough stop.

    Poo looks way more at home in the middle, doesn’t he? and as LT says esp. with two bona fide NHLers on his line. The kid is flying out there tonight and making good decisions with the puck.

    A little love in this corner for Ladi Smid too who had a very good period, very nearly scored on the backhand and was solid and surly in his own end.

    What a weird fucking game.

  66. Dennis says:

    78 can’t drive the bus he can tell you how to get there;)

    Him and 18 have always had great chem but the times I’ve cited them doing well — mostly through that awful ’07 season — it seemed like Reasoner was rounding out that line. Which makes sense when you think about it because 78′s mostly been around for ’07 and 8 and 18 was injured for much of that time.

    It just seems like 78′s never more comfortable or confident than when 34′s alongside him. It just seems like he knows where to go.

    The 13 goal reminded me of a fadeaway jumper where even though Cogs went one way and shot back across, it was almost like he did it off his backfoot. That’s sick game-changing skill and it’s scary from the other end because you’re best D has to play against 83 and that means the Gioardano’s of the league are out there against the Kids.

    The other thing is that Cole is fucking bonafide. He just puts that shoulder down and drives and he must have at least 5 or 6 hits tonight.

  67. PDO says:

    Bruce:

    Figured as much…. when I saw it I went nuts first, then figured if anyone was to blame it was Giordano, because he has to at least slow Cogs up there….. thankfully he didn’t :D

    Dennis:

    Keep on preachin’, because I’m in the choir and eating it all up. Bang on.

  68. PDO says:

    BTW..

    Hemsky has thrown at least 4 honest to god body checks. Those that follow the team religiously know that he isn’t soft by any stretch of the imagination… but watching him initiate contact is certainly new.

  69. Coach pb9617 says:

    Who are these announcers on NHL network? They are awwwwwwful

  70. danny says:

    my god. 78. wtf did that 6th gear come from?

  71. Bruce says:

    The 13 goal reminded me of a fadeaway jumper where even though Cogs went one way and shot back across, it was almost like he did it off his backfoot.

    Right you are, Dennis, it was like a lob shot or one of those Ricky Ray passes under pressure that floats in the air forever but somehow finds the target. When done perfectly it’s the opponent who winds up flat-footed, as Kipper was there.

  72. B.C.B. says:

    If you where Brodziak (4:03 of EV time) or Huggy Bear (3:40 of EV time, and thats it) would you be mad that SMac is keeping you of the ice? I mean these where 8-10 min/night last year and they are not seeing any more EV time till next game.

  73. B.C.B. says:

    I mean keeping you OFF the ice.

  74. doritogrande says:

    9am midterm, 8 hours of work, and drinking to Cogliano beating Kipper on a weak goal makes it all worth it.

  75. PDO says:

    Brodz has over 5:00 on the PK, so I think he’s fine.

    This is one of the best coached games I’ve seen in a while… MacT has been brilliant.

  76. PDO says:

    4 minutes… GIT R DUN.

  77. Bruce says:

    Memo to Marouelli: You have proven you’re not a homer. Many, many times. What a chintzy fucking call on Cole. Pure crap.

  78. Bruce says:

    4 games, 4 one-goal, regulation wins. Wow.

  79. Coach pb9617 says:

    Once again, Strudwick was sublime.

    He is a treat to watch.

  80. Quain says:

    NHL Network cut out at 13.3 seconds left in the period. A+ job for we American fans, NHL!

  81. Quain says:

    Once again, Strudwick was sublime.

    He is a treat to watch.

    Yeah, he had a great tip shot that nearly went in, and then put away his own rebound. Great offensive instincts.

  82. doritogrande says:

    “Once again, Strudwick was sublime.

    He is a treat to watch.”

    I was drinking at BP, and there wa no sound. But I swear to god he had an “own goal”.

  83. Coach pb9617 says:

    Three stars:

    3. Strudwick

    2. Pouliot

    1. Pisani

  84. PDO says:

    He did have an own goal, but it was shit luck… he saved it, and threw it into Garons legs like he should and it ends in the back of the net.

  85. kinger says:

    In 43′s defense, that puck was going in anyways. In my book he just failed to stop the goal, rather than scored one himself. This is not a “McCabe moment”.

    He played a hell of a game. His pinch/backoff instincts are fantastic.

  86. Bruce says:

    Here’s a stat for you: Calgary Flames 8 hits, Erik Cole 8 hits. Cole was a monster, even with the cheap penalties in the third.

    21-8 overall for the good guys in hits. 27-10 in blocked shots. 34-23 in the circle. Hard to believe, especially given the clusterfuck that was the first period.

  87. Scott says:

    “He still has some liabilities.”

    Who loves Kelly Hrudey?

  88. Bruce says:

    Hey, Strudwick is playing well, but there’s a few warts there. Tonight:

    1) The own goal in the first, in which he fired the original shot at Garon that caused all the trouble in the first place. Bad luck on the rebound.

    2) A horrible line change in the second that led directly to Boyd’s breakaway.

    3) A poor decision in the third to chip a loose puck right into the slot instead of the corner.

    He also made a large number of strong plays, I’m just saying he’s got some pretty rough edges.

  89. doritogrande says:

    Help a university student out. Why was Gagner not in the lineup tonight?

  90. PDO says:

    The College student will tell you it was a “lower body” injury and supposedly is very minor but no risks were being taken.

    :D

    GOILERS!!!!!!!!

  91. Coach pb9617 says:

    Help a university student out. Why was Gagner not in the lineup tonight?

    PB for poor performance. MacT said he wanted to give him the chance to “see the ice”

  92. danny says:

    actually strudwig directed that puck between garons pads, and then saved it behind garon on the line. then his clearing hit gtarons skate and went in

  93. Lowetide says:

    Who loves Kelly Hrudey? The woman I married, that’s who.

    Nice game tonight. Oilers are 4-0 and 3-0 against division so far and they’ve played a rookie in goal and all kinds of veterans have had off games.

    I’m still not convinced trading Roloson is a good idea and eventually they’re going to need to add an extra F but right now it’s hard to find much wrong in Oilerland.

    And a very nice game by Pouliot.

  94. B.C.B. says:

    Lowetide: what ever magic you used on Poo, could you apply to Smid. If it is vodoo, or catholic, or whatever.

  95. Lowetide says:

    Gagner was out for reasons other than poor play. He had an MRI after the game although everything is apparently okay. That was from the postgame tonight.

  96. Loxy says:

    Who loves Kelly Hrudey? The woman I married, that’s who.

    I once held a “I *heart* Hrudey” sign at a HNIC game.

    She’s not the only one.

  97. Bruce says:

    Here’s a couple of odd team stats from tonight’s game. Exactly 20 shots per period, distributed thusly:

    CAL 17 + 6 + 10 = 33
    EDM 3 + 14 + 10 = 27

    Other attempted shots (misses and blocks combined):

    CAL 15 + 14 + 14 = 43
    EDM 7 + 7 + 7 = 21

    So while shots that got through suggest that territorial play was all over the map, the ones that didn’t were virtually constant from one period to the next. Strange.

    Whatever, that’s three games out of four that Oilers have been handily outshot and outCorsied, and won anyway. Attempted shots, by game:

    COL 60 EDM 41
    ANA 61 EDM 47
    CAL 52 EDM 61
    CAL 76 EDM 48
    —————
    OPP 249 EDM 197

    … and an even more lopsided 197-136 against in Garon’s three games, all of them 3-2 wins.

  98. Mark-Ryan says:

    No low-percentage shots.

    This years Edmonton Oilers are going to have butt-sex with the Corsi numbers, I think.

  99. Dennis says:

    LT: I think this team needs a real D more than a forward.

    It’s gonna be fun to follow along and see how good they really can be and if Lowe can find a Spacek, then we’ll be good enough defensively that Garon can certainly lead us out of the first round.

  100. Bruce says:

    No low-percentage shots.

    You said it, Mark-Ryan. Oilers are one team for which shots on goal/Corsi numbers don’t mean a whole lot, and it’s been that way for a long time.

  101. Asiaoil says:

    b.c.b. said: Lowetide: what ever magic you used on Poo, could you apply to Smid. If it is vodoo, or catholic, or whatever.

    Patience and opportunity are all that is required for Smid. Nice to see Pouliot get that 3rd line gig between 18 and 34. He’s a big smooth center and always seemed to be the kind of guy those wingers could mesh with. Keep that line together and both 18 and 34 could get a bunch of goals this year.

  102. Phil says:

    After the 1st period LT said: Oilers have had 20-minute stretches in the past two years that look just like that and several times were able to turn it around.

    For your next trick, please post the 649 numbers for Wednesday.

    I was going to mention how I noticed Hemsky throwing the body around on the forecheck, but PDO beat me to it. He looked totally disinterested through the first 3 games, but I’m hoping this is a sign that he’s starting to get his legs. Now, if he could just stop the useless dangle along the blue line thing.

    I mentioned before the ANA game that I’d be surprised if they got more than 3 points from the next 3 games… THIS IS WHY I QUIT PLAYING PRO LINE :)

  103. Cory Klein says:

    Nice to see Pouliot get that 3rd line gig between 18 and 34. He’s a big smooth center and always seemed to be the kind of guy those wingers could mesh with. Keep that line together and both 18 and 34 could get a bunch of goals this year.

    Where does Penner go from there?

  104. spOILer says:

    Exactly. If Gagner comes back I assume we’re back to Moreau Pisani Penner.

    But should we be?

  105. Asiaoil says:

    Like I’ve said for a while now – all three of Gags, Cogs and Rowbear in the top 6 is not something you can do long-term if you want to be a serious contender – but for now there are worse things than having young Sam on the 4th line. He’s all of 19 remember and has a ton to learn and some physical development left as well.

    Still think we trade one of these kids by the time Gags and Cogs contracts come up – but Rowbear looks to have a nice contract and he really is developing into a gem of a player. Really makes the line that MacT can’t coach kids look very foolish – and old baldy also looks pretty dumb for his draft day slag job on Rowbear.

    As for lines going forward – I’d like to see:

    Nilsson Horcoff Cole
    Penner Cogs/Gags Hemsky
    Moreau MAP Pisani
    Brodziak Gags/Cogs Stortini/Mac

  106. raventalon40 says:

    I’d favor:

    Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
    Nilsson-Cogliano-Gagner
    Moreau-Pisani-Cole
    Pouliot-Brodziak-Stortini
    MacIntyre

  107. tcho says:

    Did anyone else find the CBC play-by-play and colour (esp. the colour by Crawford) to be pro-Flames? Was I just imagining that?

  108. Lowetide says:

    A few points:

    1. I stand by the Kipper comment. He lost his net on the first two goals and with due respect to Cogliano (outstanding sequence) the Kipper who is on his game doesn’t lose the angle.

    2. The Oilers do indeed need D help more Dennis, but my comment was in regard to roster makeup. They’re at 13F-7D-3G and at some point will move to 14F-7D-2G.

    3. The Oilers win last night does indeed serve notice to the rest of the division. 4-0 is 4-0.

  109. PerformanceOil says:

    You said it, Mark-Ryan. Oilers are one team for which shots on goal/Corsi numbers don’t mean a whole lot, and it’s been that way for a long time.

    Yeah, the three games in which the Oilers were out-Corsied were vastly different, ranging from terrible (COL) to average (ANA), to good (CGY). Yet, Corsi would have us believe the Oilers were the inferior team in all three games.

    To be fair, factoring out goaltending, they should have lost the COL game, and maybe one of the ANA and the 2nd CGY game. Also, it is early, and their ignorance of Corsi’s importance may be short-lived.

    So far though, a lot of the shots the opposition are throwing at the net seem the ‘prayer’ variety, while those the Oilers are taking are of the ‘goal-horn’ variety.

    Loving it!

  110. RiversQ says:

    Bruce said…

    You said it, Mark-Ryan. Oilers are one team for which shots on goal/Corsi numbers don’t mean a whole lot, and it’s been that way for a long time.

    Yeah, it’s been that way since 05/06.

    It’s no coincidence that they’ve been a poor hockey team since then and haven’t made the playoffs either.

    If this continues I doubt they make it again this year. I wouldn’t point to these first four games as evidence of Corsi not mattering to the Oil. They were lucky to beat Colorado, Anaheim missed a ton of crazy good chances in the goalmouth, and the bad 1st periods they have had against Calgary could have easily sunk both games. (and their best game was the first Calgary game… where they did out-Corsi them)

    Having said that, I think they are getting better but they’re going to have to control more of the play more often to have some sustain. We’re seeing some strengths and hopefully Gagner and Souray aren’t out long.

  111. Doogie2K says:

    Yeah, it’s been that way since 05/06.

    Actually, Bruce showed on Tyler’s site this spring that it’s been true for most of the Oilers’ history.

  112. trader says:

    I know everyone is all excited saying I told you so, look what happened when you put 78 at center….78 played great but it was on RW..34 never moved from center
    Just an example that a lot of people see what they want not what really happens

  113. Schitzo says:

    So when Gagner is healthy, we not only have 7 forwards who belong in the top-6, it appears we have 10 forwards who belong in the top-9.

    I don’t envy MacT at this point, but I swear to fucking god, I’m going to get Cole = 2RW tattooed on my ass if the change isn’t made soon.

  114. Schitzo says:

    Trader: In the offensive zone, I don’t think the position written in ink is necessarily going to matter once the cycle starts.

    I look at it as more like “fuck, Pisani and Moreau do better with someone who loves to dish the puck. REALLY?”

  115. PerformanceOil says:

    It’s no coincidence that they’ve been a poor hockey team since then and haven’t made the playoffs either.

    Clearly a cause-effect relationship.

    Hey, I can do the same thing!

    It was no coincidence that every season Nashville has made the playoffs, they were outshot by the opposition significantly throughout the year. In fact last year, when they managed to get their shots to near parity, they missed the dance. This year, they are outshooting the opposition, and are looking pretty average.

    Those are irrefutable cause-effect relationships as well.

    I won’t argue that the Oilers have had some problems this year, and are lucky (if you call having great goaltending and special teams luck) to be 4-0. But, they have been better than the EV shot total implies too. They don’t have to be the better team for 60 minutes every game, and in today’s NHL (and with such a young team) I’m not sure that’s a realistic goal. But they’ve been the better team for more than 1/2 of each of the last three games, and they have been full-value for their wins in those games.

    Their three EV goals last night all came off fast, relatively short possession, rushes. Is that somehow inferior to Calgary’s style of playing keep-away on the perimeter, while generating few (though certainly not zero) quality chances?

    I don’t think so. I think they are breaking down the opposing teams’ defenses with quick skating and good neutral zone passing. Whether they can keep that up is one thing, but their success has been earned through skill, not luck. The only times they’ve struggled is when their passes are off. When they are passing well, they are cutting through the other team’s defense, and doing so without having to ‘throw everything at the net’.

  116. Schitzo says:

    A question – is anyone still concerned about playing an 11-forward group at this point? Coming off a back-to-back BoA I didn’t see many tired legs in the 3rd period, which has to be a good sign.

  117. PerformanceOil says:

    1. I stand by the Kipper comment. He lost his net on the first two goals and with due respect to Cogliano (outstanding sequence) the Kipper who is on his game doesn’t lose the angle.

    Didn’t Kipper get a piece of Cogliano’s shot (went in off his glove I think). I don’t think that he lost the angle so much as was beat by a great shot (though I do think the Kipper of old probably nabs that one).

    I do agree with you in general though. He’s been reminding me of Roli when he’s off. He’s turning any second chance into a desperation save with the way he’s over-sliding through his crease on lateral passes. No control, no composure. Damn, if the dude really is a done as he’s looking, this season is going to be like Christmas every day as an Oiler fan (the $5.5 million gift that keeps on giving).

    I’m probably being premature though. Keenan has a great track record managing goalies who have lost confidence.

  118. trader says:

    Schitzo…you missed my point entirely

    My point is that people see or in some cases read!!! what they want to see or read

    My point is that people say Pouliot should be the 3rd line Center and if he was he would play better…my point is the guy played great as a RW.

    He played great because he played great not because he moved from RW to Center.

    By the way thanks for trying to enlighten me on positional play in the offensive zone.

  119. PerformanceOil says:

    Actually, Bruce showed on Tyler’s site this spring that it’s been true for most of the Oilers’ history.

    Wow, I missed this when you wrote it, Bruce.

    Absolutely fantastic analysis. At the very least, there are exceptions to every rule and the Oilers appear to be one of them.

  120. mc79hockey says:

    Well Bruce’s analysis rests heavily on the Gretzky Oilers, which is something I have trouble with relying on as an example that proves a general rule. Also, as I’ve stated over and over, I have trouble with mashing PP/EV/PK shots together. The best Oilers team we’ve seen since the late 90′s was also the best at outshooting the opposition.

  121. Aram says:

    Merde. Let’s not forget, the Wild are 4-0 as well. How does that happen?

  122. Schitzo says:

    My point is that people say Pouliot should be the 3rd line Center and if he was he would play better…

    I don’t recall saying this. I recall saying that having three shooters on the third line was kind of dumb.

    He played great because he played great not because he moved from RW to Center.

    Lay off the coffee, dude. I wasn’t badmouthing Pouliot. He played great regardless of where he lined up. All I pointed out was that the third line as a whole benefitted from the addition of a pass-first player.

  123. PerformanceOil says:

    Well Bruce’s analysis rests heavily on the Gretzky Oilers, which is something I have trouble with relying on as an example that proves a general rule. Also, as I’ve stated over and over, I have trouble with mashing PP/EV/PK shots together. The best Oilers team we’ve seen since the late 90′s was also the best at outshooting the opposition.

    Fair enough. And Bruce’s analysis showed generally that outshooting the opposition is a good thing, which few would argue with I think.

    However, I don’t think that means being outshot = being outplayed, at least in the absence of further evidence.
    Further, there haven’t been many great Oilers teams post 1990 (i.e small sample size), and one of those teams had abysmal goaltending implying a strong motivation to limit shots against of any variety; when that team had a real goalie, they didn’t seem bothered by shots against as much, and they did alright (small sample size, granted).

    Finally, as I mentioned previously, post expansion the best Nashville teams have all been outshot. Is that any more or less important than your statement about the Oilers?

    Bottom line: You’d have a tough time convincing me that my eyes were lying last night and in game two, and that the Oilers were the inferior team, taking those games as a whole. It would take a hell of a lot more than a summary of the shot clock anyway.

  124. PerformanceOil says:

    As an aside, and since I haven’t seen lot of love for him, but Moreau was absolutely flying last night.

    He gaffed on Bert’s PP goal by deciding to double-team the low guy for some odd reason, but after that I thought he had a hell of a game. I do think Pisani (just an absolute gem of a game, in all three zones) was better than him, and maybe Pouliot too, but Moreau was part of the same conversation at the very least (which last night was pretty lofty company). The guy is skating like he is 25 again, and the interview he gave after the game seemed to allude to that. I couldn’t believe when he tried to pull a Hemsky by sliding the puck through the opposing D-man’s skates on a 1v1. Failed miserably, but our captain is playing with confidence and heart, and he’s no passenger this season. Great to see.

  125. Schitzo says:

    As an aside, and since I haven’t seen lot of love for him, but Moreau was absolutely flying last night.

    Absolutely agreed – I remember commenting at least once last night that he must have taken a blow to the head in the offseason and been told it was the year 2002.

  126. Sean says:

    No post yet LT? ;)

    Couple notes, I was at the game yesterday so again missing the luxury of replay. Hungover so I apologize in advance …

    - Cole, warming up to me. Exactly what the Oilers need for a BoA game. Hits skates and hits. Beauty player but maybe not a #1 line player. Where were his linemates?

    - Pouliot. Excellent game. Him, Morreau and Pisani were great. For those keeping track Morreau 1, Glencross 0.

    - Depth. People here have mentioned the depth on this team. When Gagner comes back, Penner could easily be 4th line (he wont be I’m just sayin) and Penner has actually played really well thus far. This team is going to have injuries so depth is good but the prospect of a quantity for quality trade is tempting.

    - Smac, gawd what a shift. Couldnt get a better 3 minutes. Guys at the game were mentioning he broke Prusts ribs with that late body shot. Anyone else hear anything?

  127. mc79hockey says:

    Finally, as I mentioned previously, post expansion the best Nashville teams have all been outshot. Is that any more or less important than your statement about the Oilers?

    OOOOH! Anecdotal evidence that ignores the league as a whole!

    Go back and read my post. You’ll see that I actually said it wasn’t impossible to succeed while getting outshot. The advantage I found was comparable to the advantage a team with home ice has every game. Every year, some teams do better on the road than at home but nobody seems to question the idea that home ice advantage exists. While Nashville is certainly a fine example, they’ve also benefitted from having one of the best goalies in the NHL for much of that period. They’ve also been routinely blown out in the playoffs.

  128. T. says:

    I think our Captain had been reading his own press and it pissed him off. He REALLY looked good last night.

    So… did Moreau flying result form having Pouliot on that line or vice versa…? Or did it all just gel at once? Great Line though. Pisani was Pisani which is always a good thing.

  129. mc79hockey says:

    And just further to Bruce’s point about the Oilers – the NHL has outshoot/outshot by records available on NHL.com going back to 1987-88.

    In 1987-88, the Oilers were 26-11-3 when outshooting and 14-14-7 when getting outshot. While they were outshot over the course of the season, their shots were 2341-2364, so it’s not like they were getting bombed like, say, last year’s Oilers.

    In 1988-89, the post-Gretzky Oilers were 15-16-1 when outshooting and 19-18-7 when outshot. Not much difference.

    In 1990, they were 18-12-7 when outshooting and 16-16-7 when outshot.

    So for the three glory years for which data is available, the Oilers were 59-39-11 when outshooting and 49-48-21 when getting outshot. A .591 winning percentage when outshooting and a .504 winning percentage when outshot. You’ll have to excuse me when I don’t roll over on the proposition being advanced here.

  130. Schitzo says:

    Are you going game-by-game when referencing Nashville’s shot totals, or just taking the season as a whole?

    Because I imagine playing Detroit 8 times a year would result in about a -120 shot differential, regardless of what occurs the other 74 games.

  131. Doogie2K says:

    Well Bruce’s analysis rests heavily on the Gretzky Oilers, which is something I have trouble with relying on as an example that proves a general rule.

    He also showed that it mostly held true for the MacTavish-coached Oilers (the exception being ’05-’06, when we were the best in the league at preventing SA but had shit goaltending), which are a much more representative sample, particularly considering the influence of the Bettman point.

    Of course, as a general rule, NHL teams are more successful when outshooting; his point was only ever that it’s not necessarily true for every team.

  132. Tyler says:

    Of course, as a general rule, NHL teams are more successful when outshooting; his point was only ever that it’s not necessarily true for every team.

    Well fair enough. My point is that, for the glory teams for which we have numbers available, they did a hell of a lot better when they outshot. Teams generally do better when they outshoot. The MacT Oilers appear to be an exception, although their best team was an outshooting team.

    I still have a very hard time imagining building a Cup contender that routinely gets outshot. If there’s a team in teh league that might be able to do it, it’s Pittsburgh but I think that a lot of people are seizing on Bruce’s position here to try and get around the reality that the Oilers are probably going to end up getting outshot by a lot and still somehow think that they might be a good team.

  133. Traktor says:

    I’m sure most are aware (and some just scroll down when you see my name) that I’ve been critical of MacTavish over the past couple of years so it’s only fair to give him props for a wonderful job behind the bench last night. That was one of the best coached games of his career IMO. Another guy that I’ve been down on, Marc Pouliot, I thought played his best NHL game of his career. He really looked comfortable with Moreau and Pies.

  134. namflashback says:

    So,

    Lucky in 5 periods out of 12. Posts!! Strong play in the remainder. Overcame mediocre goaltending from JDD. Held 3 1 goal leads in the third period.

    All this without a 1st line hitting its range at EV.

    I think, absent the lucky and bad periods (too many) their Corsi differential will improve.

    Imperfect so far, but resilient team with the offensive ability to get by. They haven’t faced a really hot goaltender yet — so until they can keep the GA down versus a team that can do the same — I can’t get too excited yet.

  135. Coach pb9617 says:

    Oh god. Here we go again. The ridiculous stats guys don’t allow for variance and get all offended.

    Please just shut up and go away. As you are walking away, repeat after me, “Variance happens, and I should shut up when it does and stop saying it can’t.”

    Idiots.

  136. Traktor says:

    The stat crunchers said that Cogliano’s numbers would go down from last year too. On pace for 40+

  137. Paper Designer says:

    I wonder if we’ve finally seen The Real Marc Pouliot? A third line center with enough skill to get forty to fifty points a year on a team with some scoring depth.

  138. mc79hockey says:

    Leaving aside the fact that you come off as a tremendous asshole when you’re telling someone to leave someone else’s website, or your seeming difficulty with discerning who exactly doesn’t get variance here, this is a pretty spectacular series of posts:

    Coach pb9617 said…

    Oh god. Here we go again. The ridiculous stats guys don’t allow for variance and get all offended.

    Please just shut up and go away. As you are walking away, repeat after me, “Variance happens, and I should shut up when it does and stop saying it can’t.”

    Idiots.
    3:00 PM, October 19, 2008

    Traktor said…

    The stat crunchers said that Cogliano’s numbers would go down from last year too. On pace for 40+
    3:13 PM, October 19, 2008

    Yeah, so long as that 33% shooting percentage on 6 shots through 4 games holds up, we’re clearly all a bunch of idiots.

  139. danny says:

    Hey MC, been checking your site for the Powerplay analysis that you mentioned. Still going ahead?

  140. Tyler says:

    Danny – yeah, it’s actually pretty much done, I just need to get it up there. Soon, soon.

  141. Slipper says:

    Todd Bertuzzi’s on pace for 82 goals.

    You stat idiots never predicted that, either!

    Bruce proved all you number losers wrong and you just ignored him (the silence was deafening AND you could hear the crickets chirping!)and anyone else who disagrees with you.

    Then you math pussies regress into ad hominem attacks, when all your other arguments fail.

    Gawd, just account for variance already, and then fuck off and die.

    Idiots.

  142. Traktor says:

    “Yeah, so long as that 33% shooting percentage on 6 shots through 4 games holds up, we’re clearly all a bunch of idiots.”

    Idiot might be too harsh but watching how Cogliano finds open lanes and his knack for always being in the right place rather than looking at a number on your calculator might be beneficial.

  143. Tyler says:

    How many goals do you think he’ll finish the season with Traktor? Do you think he’ll finish with 40+?

  144. Tyler says:

    I’ll add to that – what do you think his shooting percentage will be, taking into account his ability to find the open lanes and his knack for always being in the right place at the right time?

  145. Asiaoil says:

    Not to go all Obama here – but the best part of this site is that the debate usually stays at respectful and intelligent level. I believe the individuals who call others “idiots” without cause should be the ones leaving the room. Don’t make LT get fatherly – he has real kids to deal with.

  146. Slipper says:

    Thomas Vanek is on pace for 115 goals.

    I don’t remember any of the numbers idiots predicting that.

    Just another glaring example of you morans getting it wrong.

  147. Dennis says:

    Something that appears to ring true with 78 is he’ll play better with plumbers than with skill guys and/or being put in “more important” situations.

    He’s thrived in the past playing with 34 and while 34 is always playing someone else’s best line, maybe 78 only considers big time to be playing with skill. And he’s played great with 51 and others but when you put him with the kids or with the 27-83 combo – which happened last year – then, not so much.

    Just a couple of other things:

    - Not sure if 18 really likes 27 or isn’t a big fan of 78 but he stressed that it wasn’t anything 27 wasn’t doing in order for 78 to get the push and he didn’t really credit Pouliot and he said that himself and Pisani took it upon themselves to make a difference. I’ll go out on a fitness limb and say Moreau’s not enamoured with 78 because he hasn’t always been in the best of shape.

    - Cogs gave a little something away when he basically said the kids were out of sorts without 89 so I’m not sure if 12 shares that sentiment but we know that 13 certainly does.

    LT: There’s no way you can try and make the playoffs with JDD as your back-up so I wouldn’t really worry if the Oil lose him on waivers and I don’t think they should either.

    And the easiest way to be able to keep the current alignment and not risking losing JDD would be to deal out Smid and bring in a real dman.

  148. Traktor says:

    Tyler: I predicted in “Reasonable Expectations” 24 goals and 57 points.

    I think his shooting % will always been in the 15% range.

  149. Asiaoil says:

    Dennis you would deal a 22 year old top 10 pick dman with 200 pro games under his belt to keep an average AHL goalie? Your hate of the Pronger deal has no bounds my friend – that’s just an incredibly foolish deal that you could lose very very badly. Plus Smid is the only guy sitting in between the totally unproven Chorney, Petry, Peckham cluster and the Grebs, Gilbert cluster. We have lots of chips to deal if we need an extra 4-6 dman: Schremp, Chorney, JDD etc. You may have to deal Smid next summer to keep Grebs given the outlandish Greene contract – but now is not the time to do that without evaluating him more this season.

  150. Tyler says:

    Well there are 11 active players with shooting percentages of 15% or better and most of those played large chunks of their careers prior to the deadpuck era, so you’re clearly bullish on the young man.

    How much ice time do you see him getting? I just want to get a feel for where you think his rates will be. At 15%, he’d have to take 160 shots, which is a sizable increase. How is that going to come about – big jump in shooting rates or tons of extra ice time?

  151. toqueboy says:

    i saw strudwick as old and tired and not nearly as good as the rest of you. definitely didn’t look like he had the jump he had a week ago. hopefully we don’t wear him out like we did roli two years ago.

    i think there’s a reason strudwick is a 40-50 games a year player…and solid for those games.

  152. Lowetide says:

    The Toronto Maple Leafs won the Stanley in 1967 despite a 204-211 GF-GA number. Without actually knowing the answer, wouldn’t it be reasonable to assume that the chances of winning a championship while being outshot by a similar margin would be as rare?

    Without pointing fingers I think some of the folks in this thread are arguing the world is flat. Shots on goal/shots against is an indicator and even adding in things like variables, luck and hangovers logic dictates this to be true.

    By the way, I was reading an old book this weekend and found a cool stat from Phil Esposito’s 70-71 season: 76 goals on 550 shots. Lordy.

  153. Bruce says:

    Well Bruce’s analysis rests heavily on the Gretzky Oilers, which is something I have trouble with relying on as an example that proves a general rule.

    Tyler: The Gretzky Oilers were exceptional in every sense. That they turned modern Corsi assumptions on their ear was no surprise to me, who followed the team intently throughout that era. They won not by outshooting, but by better finishing; their shooting percentages were routinely about 5% higher than their opposition’s.

    The ’87-88 outshooting/outshot records are interesting, but likely not typical of the era. The post-Coffey Oilers of that season were the first Oilers team to not lead the league in GF (and by a wide margin) since 1980-81; yet the team was outshot every year for which records are available.

    But to say my analysis “rests heavily” on the Oilers of the 1980s is to sell short the detailed analyses of the 2005-06 playoffs and the 2007-08 stretch run (strongly negative correlations), and of the MacT era generally (mildly negative correlation in that MacT’s career winning percentage is .016 better when outshot than when outshooting). All of these findings also go against Corsi expectations.

    The best Oilers team we’ve seen since the late 90′s was also the best at outshooting the opposition.

    The best Oilers team we have seen since the late ’90s barely scraped into 8th spot by outshooting its opponents by an average of 29.8 to 25.5. Same team then won three playoff rounds while getting outshot by an average of 32.1 to 24.5; and then lost the final while outshooting their opponent by a mean of 28.3 to 23.2.

    Your implication that the ’05-06 Oilers were successful because they outshot their opponents hardly seems to square with those inconvenient facts.

  154. Asiaoil says:

    Yeah this thread degraded into ignorance and name calling worthy of HF.

    LT – certain people appear to be incapable of understanding that stats do not predict the future – they give you a clue as to the likelihood of future events taking place – no more, no less. I may disagree with Tyler regarding the limits of using stats in assessing hockey – but people questioning his intelligence or contribution to the level of discussion on all things Oilers is bullshit – and on Sunday no less :)

    As for Cogliano – unlikely he has another shooting % like last year but it could happen. We don’t know what his long-term average will be (not enough data) and nothing says you can’t be lucky two years in a row. Or even less likely he could become one of the highest percentage shooters in NHL history – but I wouldn’t bet the mortgage on that one :)

  155. Traktor says:

    24 goals and 57 points was based on Cogliano playing on the 2nd line and 2nd PP unit which so far is the case this season. My reasoning for his increased production would be 50% ice time, 25% shot increase, 25% natural progression.

  156. Traktor says:

    Asiaoil said: certain people appear to be incapable of understanding that stats do not predict the future

    Yet you keep using JDD’s save % as your reasoning as to why he will never be more than an average back up.

  157. Asiaoil says:

    Bruce – you seem to be saying that there are two types of “outshooting” teams. Type A (Detroit?) where outshooting results from having more talent than the opposition and a system that preaches sound two way play. A winning situation no doubt about it. Type B outshooting (gang that couldn’t shoot straight 90′s Oilers) has far less offensive talent and tries to score by directing as much rubber as possible toward the net hoping that something goes in. We saw that many nights and it is not a particularly successful.

    The 1980 Oilers were an abberation – a hugely talented team that didn’t didn’t feel like playing defense most nights and didn’t have to play defense to succeed. There was simply such a talent gap over the opposition on most nights that defense was an after-thought. I’d be interested to see if those Oiler teams were still outshot in the playoffs – and I’d wager the trend reversed when the chips were down and competition was more even and intense.

  158. Asiaoil says:

    I think JDD will not be anything more than an NHL backup because he has never performed better than an NHL backup in over 4 years of pro hockey. I have never said it is IMPOSSIBLE….just very unlikely and getting less likely as his record of sub-elite play expands. At this point I’m guessing that the odds of him ever being in the top 50% of NHL starters in a season is less than 10%.

    I have 4 years of JDDs record to back up my guess – people who think the opposite only have their opinion and optimism to back up their guess.

  159. PerformanceOil says:

    OOOOH! Anecdotal evidence that ignores the league as a whole!

    Not anecdotal in the slightest – a bad case of cherry picking though ;).

    That said, my point wasn’t that it does or doesn’t prove anything (and you came up with some possible explanations for Nashville’s apparently paradoxical success). Rather my point was that a few seasons of the Oilers being outshooters doesn’t mean a whole lot either.

    Look, I’ve been through this argument ad nauseum. I agree league trends support the view that outshooting is important. Where I have a problem is the mentality that a team (or player) that does well in spite of a negative shot/corsi differential somehow needs to justify their results, rather than the opposite where the burden of proof is on someone who claims the Corsi results (for that team/player in the specific season/role) are the ‘true’ numbers, and the actual results are a consequence of the vagaries of fate.

    I believe it is possible for systems/roles which emphasize quality of chances over number of chances, and I believe a player (like Cogliano) can tend to generate higher quality chances than those he gives up. I don’t see what is so controversial about that idea, and I don’t anything concrete that disproves the notion either, whereas there is some reason to believe it is true, even if only in the vast minority of cases.

  160. mc79hockey says:

    I think JDD will not be anything more than an NHL backup because he has never performed better than an NHL backup in over 4 years of pro hockey. I have never said it is IMPOSSIBLE….just very unlikely and getting less likely as his record of sub-elite play expands. At this point I’m guessing that the odds of him ever being in the top 50% of NHL starters in a season is less than 10%.

    I have 4 years of JDDs record to back up my guess – people who think the opposite only have their opinion and optimism to back up their guess.

    You know AO, last year’s blowout notwithstanding, I think that you and I are a lot closer together on stats and hockey than you’d think.

  161. Bruce says:

    The Toronto Maple Leafs won the Stanley in 1967 despite a 204-211 GF-GA number.

    … and the 1937-38 Chicago Black Hawks won the Cup despite a regular season record of 14-25-9 = .385. Obviously, shit (a.k.a. “variance”) happens on occasion that no reasonable interpretation of statistics can predict.

    Shots on goal/shots against is an indicator and even adding in things like variables, luck and hangovers logic dictates this to be true.

    Of course it’s an indicator. The question is, how good of an indicator? In my 7-season study which covers most of the Bettman Point era, the outshooting team collects some 53% of the available points. Definitely a positive indicator, just not that strong a one. And with some teams — Edmonton, Nashville — it just doesn’t seem to mean much at all.

    Point is, there’s lots of indicators, and they’re not always striaghtforward. Hits, takeaways and blocked shots — all positive actions for the most part — are nonetheless indicative of NOT having puck possession. Giveaways are the opposite. Other indicators are less clear: e.g. the 2006-07 Anaheim Ducks led the league in fights and won the Stanley Cup. This was in fact a strategy for their team, and it worked: but it doesn’t mean that is The way to go.

    Last year Detroit won by badly outshooting its opposition (34.4 to 23.5) and recording ~average shooting and save percentages. Sure it worked for them, but those Wings too were an exceptional team. They are the current poster boys for Corsi superiority — outshoot to outscore — but they may also be the exception that proves an entirely different rule, just as the ’80s Oilers may have been.

  162. PerformanceOil says:

    Without pointing fingers I think some of the folks in this thread are arguing the world is flat.

    No, I believe the world is round. I’m just not certain that if you sail West, you’ll hit India.

    Shots on goal/shots against is an indicator and even adding in things like variables, luck and hangovers logic dictates this to be true.

    Indicator? Absolutely. End all and be all? Hardly. Again, my problem isn’t with using shot differential as a measure of success. My problem lies with using shot differential as a more important measure of success than things like wins, losses, GF, and GA. Yeah, a player/team can be crappy and ‘luck out’ and be successful. But, equally true is the fact that a player/team can be good (and successful), and yet still be on the bad side of shot differential. The question is how often are those things true, and how do we tell one from the other?

  163. T. says:

    Not to be cheeky but I love when people misspell words like “morons” when trying to make a point.

    sorry – trying to lighten the place up. ;-)

  164. Bruce says:

    I may disagree with Tyler regarding the limits of using stats in assessing hockey – but people questioning his intelligence or contribution to the level of discussion on all things Oilers is bullshit

    AO: Agreed. Tyler can dish it out as good as he gets it for the most part, but he didn’t deserve that.

    Bruce – you seem to be saying that there are two types of “outshooting” teams.

    Absolutely. And as a result, any conclusions drawn strictly on shots are weakened considerably.

    I’d be interested to see if those Oiler teams were still outshot in the playoffs – and I’d wager the trend reversed when the chips were down and competition was more even and intense.

    To cite the post so kindly referenced by D2K:
    “It turns out the Gretzky Oilers were collectively outshot by their opposition in four out of four regular seasons that they won the Stanley Cup. Interestingly, the Oilers outshot their opponents in four out of four playoff seasons that they went all the way, confirming another suspicion of mine that while the dynastic Oilers were content to trade chances during the season, they dialled it up a notch in the playoffs, especially defensively. But they were good enough in those regular seasons to win three President’s Trophies or equivalent despite a (small) deficit in gross shots on goal. They had the better goalie most games, and the better snipers every game. They didn’t need to outshoot to outscore, that’s for sure.
    “The 1990 champs had a slightly different formula for success, as they were outshot in both the regular season and the playoffs. No surprise that was the one year their goalie won the Smythe.”

  165. Slipper says:

    Who misspelled morans?

  166. Lowetide says:

    The Moops.

  167. Slipper says:

    Well then, who invaded Spain in the 8th century?

  168. Lowetide says:

    Bruce.

  169. Asiaoil says:

    Thanks Bruce – makes sense. Like any of the numbers out there – no matter how useful – context is important.

  170. Oilman says:

    I have 4 years of JDDs record to back up my guess – people who think the opposite only have their opinion and optimism to back up their guess.

    I don’t think that’s true. A goalies progression (outside the elite prospects) is rarely linear and the best example in the NHL right now is Dan Ellis who was no star AHL goalie to say the least. Others, like Jeff Hackett and Tim Thomas come to mind as guys who crept into NHL starting roles….I don’t know what your background regarding goaltender evaluation is, but to say that a certain SP in the AHL will equate to a guy that can play in the NHL is wrong I think.

  171. Asiaoil says:

    Hey Tyler – oh we agree on about 99% of stuff – but can still get in a good old catfight over the last 1% – cheers :)

  172. mc79hockey says:

    I don’t think that’s true. A goalies progression (outside the elite prospects) is rarely linear and the best example in the NHL right now is Dan Ellis who was no star AHL goalie to say the least.

    And Dan Ellis is the best example right now because he’s coming off a good year. A bad year and we’ll have some other best example.

  173. Bruce says:

    LT: You’re right, I have been dating myself, haven’t I? :)

    Tyler: I also agree with you far more often than it may seem. At heart I’m a “ridiculous stats guy” myself.

  174. mc79hockey says:

    And Dan Ellis is the best example right now because he’s coming off a good year. A bad year in the coming season and we’ll have some other best example.

    Fixed.

  175. Asiaoil says:

    Oilman – for every exception like Thomas or Roloson that you cite – I can provide maybe 20 examples of goalies where AHL performance was totally indicative of NHL success (or lack there of). Nobody said it was impossible that JDD will be an impact starter – but the longer he goes without showing any elite qualities – the less likely they will show up somewhere, sometime in the future. His first two starts didn’t change my mind irrespective of the stats – glove hand still weak, suspect puck handling, positioning not the best. He relies on being big too much and gets caught deep – bad goals turn up like clockwork.

    But hey if JDD’s AHL record suggests greatness then I guess Colin McDonald could still turn into that goalscoring powerforward down the road as well right? Both could happen – but it just isnt very likely because neither guy has shown anything close to that level of ability – and they are not 18 any more so the “potential” tag is wearing pretty thin. They are what they are unless a rare late development spurt happens.

  176. Asiaoil says:

    ….yeah Dan Ellis may not be the best guy to bring up right now since he’s sporting that .871 SP after 6 games :)

    Goaltending is funny in that a bunch of guys can get hot for a bit and look legit….but not many guys coming “out of the blue” have the combination of talent and focus needed to stay in the NHL longterm.

    My comp for JDD continues to be Valliquette – big guy who’s had a career but it took a while for him to “get it” and he’s still nothing to get excited about.

  177. Oilman says:

    Asia,

    the lack of success is quite easy to prove I’d imagine. Hell, take every goaltender that’s played in the Jersey system since Brodeur entered the league – none of them could have ever cut it in the NHL right – circumstance has nothing to do with it?

    Fact is, Ellis wouldn’t have been in the league last season if Vokoun hadn’t been traded and the opportunity arose. I’m just saying that I don’t agree with the .920sp in the AHL means you’re NHL caliber. It can be as dependent on team play as any other stat. The other things you’ve mentioned – like penchant for bad goals, playing too deep, glove hand etc makes a better argument to support your case.

    tyler – are we arguing career play here or the ability to start in the NHL? 6 games early in the season doesn’t mean a whole lot to me. I’m assuming no one thinks Aaron Voros will challenge for the scoring title this year.

  178. Doogie2K says:

    Not to be cheeky but I love when people misspell words like “morons” when trying to make a point.

    It’s an old joke, actually.

  179. mc79hockey says:

    tyler – are we arguing career play here or the ability to start in the NHL? 6 games early in the season doesn’t mean a whole lot to me. I’m assuming no one thinks Aaron Voros will challenge for the scoring title this year.

    Six games doesn’t mean a lot to me either. Really though, the opinion that I’ve come to is that even a season’s worth of games (and Ellis didn’t play that many games last year), isn’t enough. What I look for is just consistent excellence. The guys who have a good season in a short burst…not enough for me.

  180. Bruce says:

    I don’t agree with the .920sp in the AHL means you’re NHL caliber. It can be as dependent on team play as any other stat.

    Hear, hear, Oilman. There is an unfortunate tendency among some to equate Sv% with goaltending proficiency, full stop. While stopping the puck is obviously the goalie’s first and most important job it’s simplistic to boil his performance down into a single stat category. Even shot-quality-neutral Sv% has its shortcomings. For one thing, a straight consideration of Sv% alone doesn’t adequately compare the performance of a sweeper-style goalie to a pure stopper. The goalie who “gets the puck moving in the right direction” (to quote the Oracle of the Oilogosphere) contributes value that doesn’t show up in the Sv% column.

    What I look for is just consistent excellence.

    Tyler: The current poster boy is probably Tim Thomas, the one-time Oiler prospect. Thomas’ AHL Sv% (.905, .892, .906) were nothing to write home about until he suddenly found his game in 2003-04 (.941 !). Since the lockout Thomas has established himself somewhere among the top half of starting golaies in the NHL (.914 Sv% on almost 5000 shots in 160+ GP). Anybody who saw that coming in 2002-03 had the rosiest coloured glasses ever.

  181. Slipper says:

    That is precisely my beef with things like Dejardins NHL equivalencies. Until it can project all players with +/- 5 points of their actual results it’s wholly useless as far as I am concerned. Throw it out.

    The exceptional exceptions is what people should concern their efforts toward. Guys like Tim Thomas (who had a Sv% north of .920 over his last 100 AHL games) should be the rule and not the exception, and their results diminish the value of all other studies, because the stats geeks have always professed that we should disregard everything except the numbers they provide, and what they say is 100% irrefutable.

    It’s the same logic that works so well in cherry picking specific team results in an attempt to discredit corsi (what is a Corsi anyways?). Without looking at other data, like save percentage in wins and losses, for me it’s enough to say that a team who has faired poorly in Corsi 5 out of the past 6 seasons and missed the playoffs in 4 of those seasons really shouldn’t have Corsi apply to them.

    Regardless of the fact that over the past two season in both the regular season and playoffs the team’s which excelled in outshooting, out corsi-ing and outscoring at even strength, also excelled in the W-L column; the fact that one specific team, one which missed the playoffs both the past two seasons, appeared to fair better being outshot (although on a whole they were unsuccessful, and I was once lead to believe that the results as a whole were the most reliable date…) really turns all the other existing data on it’s head.

  182. Slipper says:

    As much as it pains me to play devil’s advocate for the number fudgers… they do seem to need all the help they can get.

    In 2002-03, anyone attempting to project what kind of NHL performance Tim Thomas was capable of would have been handi-capped by the fact Thomas didn’t have a consistent or substansial ammount of minutes on a North American ice surface.

    In 03-04 Thomas played the most minutes for a professional NA team to that point in his career: 43 games and 2544 minutes for the Providence Bruins of the AHL, where he posted a .941 Sv%.

    He followed that season up playing the lockout year for Jokerit in Finland amassing 54 games and 3266 minutes and, although save percentage data isn’t available, Thomas posted a 34-13 W/L records and a GAA of 1.58.

    Thomas returned to the AHL the next season where he posted a .923 save percentage in 26 games before being vcalled up to Boston for his first signifigant shot for an NHL club.

    So entering 2005-06, with a little more substansial data to draw from, and before he was given a true shot with an NHL club, Thomas had posted:

    8286 minutes for the U of Vermont, posting a 81-43 W/L record and a .924 Sv%.

    7070 minutes in Finland, with a W/L record of 70-32 and a 1.90 GAA.

    6945 minutes in the AHL with a .922 Sv%

  183. PerformanceOil says:

    Slipper, I think you are mis-characterizing (and grossly oversimplifying) the criticisms of some of the stats being used (SV%, and Corsi for instance).

    For one thing, there are two types of outshooting numbers. One which deals with teams, and one which deals with 5v5 matchups at the level of the player.
    Certainly, over the course of a season a winning team will tend to outshoot their opponent, and there is a pretty strong correlation between the two. However, that doesn’t mean an individual game can be evaluated by the shot clock and nor neccessarily the Oilers’ young season. That said, it is likely if they continue to be outshot consistently, they won’t do very well this season, going by historical trends.

    I’ve already beat to death the idea of outshooting at the level of the player, and I won’t get into it here, except to again reiterate that it is possible for it to be less meaningful then the same stat at the level of the team.

    So that is all well and good. If were given only the leagues’ results for shot differential after 82 games you could slot them their order in the standings with a reasonable amount of accuracy.

    However, there would be a few teams that wouldn’t slot in well. It is these teams (the exceptionals) where the contention generally lies in my mind.

    So the question becomes, what do we do with those teams? Do we ignore them because they don’t fit our model? Do we write it off as good/bad puck luck? Do we try to come up with explanations for why these teams might not fit the general trends?

    Personally, I believe the most understanding is gained from describing the exceptions to the rule, rather than all the cases that fit the rule, so I favour the last. In that sense, both Bruce and myself have put forward theories (different systems/roles) which may rely on outshooting to a greater or lesser degree. These things are very difficult to prove/disprove, unfortunately, though I do think Bruce has done a good job digging up the first few cm of sediment which covers this issue.

    Beyond understanding these exceptionals, another problem I have is at what levels do the numbers become significant? Saying that a positive shot differential is a good thing is all well and good, but how big does the difference need to be in order to be meaningful?

    As far as the Sv% argument goes, I tend to agree with Asia in that if you were to look at two goalies, you’d pick the one with the best history of SV% if you were going to be on which one has a career.

    That said, it’s probably a trick question, since most likely neither of them would have a career. And again, there are certainly some players who ‘come out of nowhere’, just as there are some players that look like sure things that never pan out. So again, how strong of a predictor is minor league SV%’age for NHL success? Saying you believe it is a strong predictor doesn’t make it so. Lastly, even assuming it is a very strong predictor, what can we learn from the exceptionals?

  184. Oilman says:

    Thomas didn’t have a consistent or substansial ammount of minutes on a North American ice surface.

    Isn’t that one of the arguments for cutting JDD a little slack as well?

  185. Slipper says:

    It hasn’t been easy being a goaltender prospect in the Oilers org over the past five years, has it?

    A bunch of minor league team reshuffling and player loan outs to other team’s minor league affiliates. No fun.

  186. Bruce says:

    Slipper, I think you are mis-characterizing (and grossly oversimplifying) the criticisms of some of the stats being used (SV%, and Corsi for instance).

    PerformanceOil: No kidding. In my mind “critcisms” are meant as questions, not attacks. Not sure why some people get so defensive about it. The goal is to examine and refine the method, to understand where it works and just as importantly, where (and why) it doesn’t.

    Personally, I believe the most understanding is gained from describing the exceptions to the rule, rather than all the cases that fit the rule, so I favour the last. In that sense, both Bruce and myself have put forward theories (different systems/roles) which may rely on outshooting to a greater or lesser degree. These things are very difficult to prove/disprove, unfortunately, though I do think Bruce has done a good job digging up the first few cm of sediment which covers this issue.

    Thank you. The exceptions and outliers almost always are interesting to consider, and can be quite revealing as to the limits and limitations of the method. Such is the case with Tim Thomas, a true outlier.

    So entering 2005-06, with a little more substansial data to draw from, and before he was given a true shot with an NHL club, Thomas had posted:

    … very good numbers all around. He was also 31 years old, which in itself made him an outlier for a guy getting his first real shot.

    It hasn’t been easy being a goaltender prospect in the Oilers org over the past five years, has it?
    A bunch of minor league team reshuffling and player loan outs to other team’s minor league affiliates. No fun.

    Slipper: On this point we entirely agree. (Can you handle that concept?) Even though the organization is now chock-a-block with young prospects, I remain perplexed if not incensed at the irresponsible decision to plough over the farm team for two years running.

  187. PerformanceOil says:

    No kidding. In my mind “critcisms” are meant as questions, not attacks. Not sure why some people get so defensive about it. The goal is to examine and refine the method, to understand where it works and just as importantly, where (and why) it doesn’t.

    Well, my posts have probably tended towards attack at times, but certainly it is more a product of heated debate then intent. We’re all working towards the same goal: understanding the game we love. Hell, people who think stats are a bunch of crap can still add value to the discussion. It’s all about bringing different ideas to the conversation, not quenching those we think are wrong (even if they are).

  188. Slipper says:

    Bruce originally said to Tyler:

    Thomas’ AHL Sv% (.905, .892, .906) were nothing to write home about until he suddenly found his game in 2003-04 (.941 !).

    later Bruce said:

    The exceptions and outliers almost always are interesting to consider, and can be quite revealing as to the limits and limitations of the method. Such is the case with Tim Thomas, a true outlier.

    … very good numbers all around. He was also 31 years old, which in itself made him an outlier for a guy getting his first real shot.

    I hope you’re not being purposely disingenuous here, Bruce.

    It appears that first you argue that Tim Thomas came out of nowhere statistically and that this is what made him an exception. When a little research showed that Thomas’ AHL numbers indeed fit Dellow’s .920% criteria (you were siting seasons where he played just 15 and 35 games games, and one IHL season) and you turn around and say that it’s the fact he achieved these results at 31 years old that makes him the outlier. Which is it again?

    This dizzying argumentative style of yours is precisely why I’ve decided to simply agree with you on all fronts and try to defend your positions, Bruce.

    Whether I’m doing a good job of it or not is another debate altogether.

    One last thing, though. Tyler Dellow crunches a bunch of raw numbers and tries to define trends, or better, lines in the sand that may help better predict future performance from players across all positions. He’s had relatively good success with it ever since he began the undertaking 6 or 7 years ago. HE didn’t devise these methods to shit on players the Oilers would acquire half a decade later, and he’s never cherry picked data as a means to an end, either. Also, he’s never claimed that within these numbers that he would be able to account for everything- ecspecially things that aren’t reflected in player performance data, like whether or not Tim Thomas’ career had been mismanaged by the teams who held his rights.

    I agree with performanceoil on fair chunk of his points. It seems to always come back heavily on what passes the sniff test in what we see when we watch the games, and simple logic, aswell. A team that gets outshot 30-25 could very well be winning the quality chances battle. It becomes less and less likely as the disparity in chances grows wider, on top of the idea that a plethora of 10 and 15 cent chances can begin to level off with a handfull 25 or 30 cent chances.

  189. Bruce says:

    It appears that first you argue that Tim Thomas came out of nowhere statistically and that this is what made him an exception. When a little research showed that Thomas’ AHL numbers indeed fit Dellow’s .920% criteria (you were siting seasons where he played just 15 and 35 games games, and one IHL season) and you turn around and say that it’s the fact he achieved these results at 31 years old that makes him the outlier. Which is it again?

    Slipper: It’s both. I did the exact same “little research” you did, I simply tried to interpret what his projections might have been at different points in his career. If one tried to project Thomas based on his statistics as a 28-year-old in 2003, I can’t imagine anybody could foresee he would ever be anywhere close to a top 10 NHL goalie. And if one saw him still in the minors at age 31, an accomplished minor league veteran with everything that implies, it would be equally hard to project. Why is that disingenuous?

    Tyler Dellow crunches a bunch of raw numbers and tries to define trends, or better, lines in the sand that may help better predict future performance from players across all positions.

    And I respect that. If I’m not mistaken that was me up there in this thread, coming to Tyler’s defence at one point. It so happens that my approach frequently is, like PerformanceOil’s, to examine the outliers outside the Bell curve; it is the extremes that help to establish the range of possibility.

    BTW, please don’t patronize me with your mock agreement. I can do a fine job all on my own making a fool of myself at times, I don’t need your help. I frankly do not understand your seeming contempt of everything I write. I would much prefer an adult debate on the issues.

  190. Slipper says:

    “I can do a fine job all on my own making a fool of myself at times, I don’t need your help.”

    I agree with Bruce.

    ;)

  191. Asiaoil says:

    A goalie’s job is to stop the puck and SP a direct measure of success at that task – there is no better or clearer indicator

    The AHL is a lower league with less capable shooters making it easier to obtain a higher SP than in the NHL. So tacking on 0.10 – 0.15 over and above the average NHL starter’s SP seems fair in the same way as Dejardin’s scoring equivalencies nick lower leagues.

    Before someone says that defenses are less capable – that is true – but when a real NHL starter go down to the AHL for a few conditioning games they typically put up huge numbers – why – because the league is easier and they are much better than average.

    All SP does is measure a goalie’s success in doing their job – and what makes anyone believe that failing to be better than average in a weaker league (AHL) would suggest that you will be better than average in a tougher league (NHL). That’s like saying that Rob Schremp will be a PPG player in the NHL – possible but very unlikely – and nothing in his AHL record suggests that this will ever happen. JDD has had 4 pro seasons and 2 full seasons as an AHL starter (a good sample size). He has only achieved average AHL results which project to below average NHL results. Of course there are outliers and late bloomers – but relying on them to prove your point just shows how weak any argument about JDD’s upside is and how unlikely it is he will turn into an impact player.

  192. Oilman says:

    A goalie’s job is to stop the puck and SP a direct measure of success at that task – there is no better or clearer indicator

    Check Marty Broduer’s yearly win totals and where he’s finished among the league in SP. Guess he’s an outlier.

  193. Oilman says:

    I’ve done some looking (albeit not much) to find any goalies who’ve split significant amount of time between the AHL and NHL in the same season to compare stats. Fair right, one goalie, 2 leagues, same year? Well, the first one I’ve stumbled across is JS Gigeure who split 3 consectutive seasons playing between the A and the NHL. His save percentages are:

    1998/99: NHL .897 in 15 games
    AHL .897 in 39 games

    1999/00: NHL .914 in 7 games
    AHL .897 in 41 games

    2000/01: NHL .911 in 34 games
    AHL .917 in 23 games

    He never looked back after 2001 – NHL save percentages between .911 and .922 prior to this season.

    Can anyone think of another that bounced back and forth for a few years to compare…dipeitro maybe?

  194. Asiaoil says:

    Lots of guys and cherry picking one like giggy is as easy as me picking Labarberra:

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8467391

    Basically Labarberra has a record of serious AHL success with multiple years of SP over .930. In the NHL he has never been better than .911. His 06-07 and 07-08 campaigns are particularly useful since these are complete seasons with lots of games – big difference in performance between each league. Trying to look at one season is not impossible but you need enough starts in both leagues to avoid having one or two games (good or bad) skew the sample. Probably an absolute minimum is around 30 starts.

    Look if you are trying to discount SP in the AHL as a measure of goalie potential then you might as well suggest tossing points scored in the AHL as a measure of potential for forwards. The AHL is an easier game and guys with real talent do well against sub-elite players that inhabit that league.

  195. mc79hockey says:

    When I’ve looked at this in the past, it gets more complicated as guys age. Young guys putting up big SV% in the AHL is better than old guys doing the same, in terms of translating to the NHL. Once a guy gets older, he really needs to dominate, like LaBarbera, in order to indicate some ability at the NHL level.

  196. Slipper says:

    I’m just typing guys in randomly over at hockey-reference.

    Cristobal Huet 2002-03
    AHL 1784 minutes .922%
    NHL 541 minutes .913%

    Miikka Kiprusoff 2000-01
    AHL 2038 min .926%
    NHL 154 min .902

    Miikka Kiprusoff 2001-02
    AHL 249 min .949%
    NHL 1037 min .915%

    Jonas Hiller 2007-08
    AHL 370 min .929%
    NHL 1223 min .927%

    Ryan Miller 2002-03
    AHL 2817 min .920% (career .922%)
    NHL 912 min .902%

    These are just some.

    Kari Lehtonen should be a good case study since he’s still young and has 98 AHL games under his belt aswell as 150+ NHL games.

    Other NHL regular’s career AHL averages:

    Patrick Lalime 18 games .930%
    Cam Ward 52 games .936%
    Miikka Kiprusoff 87 games .926%
    Josh Harding 118 games .924%
    Martin Biron 103 games .921%

    To be fair, alot of goaltenders get blasted when they play really young. Garon had two poor seasons at 21 (.904) and 22 (.898) years old while in the AHL, but posted well above a .920 save percentage over his last 150 games in the league. Aswhere Kipper didn’t play in the AHL until he was 23 years old to begin with.

    Tomas Vokoun had a .904 percentage in 78 games, but he wasbetween 20-21 in that period of time.

    I really think some where in the range of .920 by the age of 23 seems like it could be the line.

  197. Asiaoil says:

    Nice set of numbers slipper – thanks for doing the legwork.

    I agree with MC as well – elite AHL performance at a young age indicates higher potential for elite performance at the NHL level later on. Putting up big AHL numbers as a 24 year old is way less impressive for both skaters and goalies than doing it at 20. It took JDD 4 years to become an average AHL starter and he never has shown anything better for a sustained period. That doesn’t bode well for elite NHL performance down the road unless he’s an oddball. Basically the odds are stacked pretty heavily against him becoming even a starter which is why I don’t get the concern over putting him on waivers. Very unlikely he’s more than a Valliquette clone. The fact that people have to bring up odd-balls like Thomas and Roloson to see any hope in JDD is also telling.

    The age/performance equation is also why I’m close to putting Dubnyk into the same category as JDD – he’s under-performed and after a while the potential label wears off and you are what you are. Schremp and Dubnyk are probably pretty close in terms of NHL potential right now – and that’s not a particularly good thing.

  198. Slipper says:

    I would agree, asia. This would probably be the year you want to see Dubnyk atleast tease a .920 save percentage. He’s 22 as of last May, so he’s fast approaching that deadline where a goaltender either gets it or not.

  199. Asiaoil says:

    slipper…everyone knows I’ve been a DD fan for ages – but I’m also very performance focused – and if DD does not take a big step forward this season then he just might never take it.

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