High Event

Taylor Chorney has played 2 regular season AHL games so far and can only be described as a “high event” defender.

In the two games thus far, the Falcons have given up 4EV goals and Chorney has been on the ice for 3 of them.

On the PP, Springfield has surrendered 3 powerplay goal and Chorney was on the ice for 2 of them.

Which isn’t to say he’s been horrible, just on the ice for a lot of goals for and against. He’s played in 2 games, has 2 assists and is Even.

Put another way, Springfield has scored 7 goals and given up 7 goals. Chorney has been on the ice when Springfield scored 4 goals (1 on the PP, 3 at EVs) and 5 goals against (2 on the PP, 3 at EVs).

There are several things we can gather from this: he’s playing a lot, the Falcons are on the road and unable to protect the rookie (certainly in the Providence game) and the AHL is a tough place for rookie defensemen.

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41 Responses to "High Event"

  1. Asiaoil says:

    Not to belabor a point – but this is pretty clear evidence that Choney is nowhere near Smid in terms of being NHL-ready let alone on his heels. I like the player but the kid has a ton to learn in the AHL and he’s 2 years away from being even close to to the semi-reliable NHL dman that Smid is right now.

    Chorney and Peckham both need at least 2 years of AHL seasoning before being ready to be a 7th dman at the NHL level – and given the guys on the NHL roster – there is no reason what so ever to rush them. I also remain unconvinced that you can have both Chorney and Visnovsky on the same d-corp – especially when we have size issues at forward as well.

  2. Mark-Ryan says:

    Asia: How is it clear? Smid is not an NHL defenseman. He’s an AHL defenseman playing in the NHL. I’m not convinced he would do all that better.

  3. raventalon40 says:

    Who is he paired with?

  4. Lowetide says:

    asia: Some guys have 3 years experience, other guys have 1 year’s experience 3 times without getting better. We know about Smid, we’re waiting on Chorney.

    raven: Looked like Peckham for the most part. I think the Falcon coach (Truitt?) will match better at home and keep these kids from the AHL sultans.

  5. trader says:

    Asiaoil shame on you..as a regular at this site you should know the 2 rules by now.

    1) Never praise Smid
    2) Never dish Pouliot

    Que the justification by LT

  6. Lowetide says:

    trader: There are no restrictions on this site. None. Dennis beat me about the face and hands for two freaking years about the Pronger trade and I didn’t delete a post.

    The only posts that have been deleted on this site are because of bad language and I reserve the right to do it because my children sometimes read it.

  7. oilerdiehard says:

    Are we seriously starting make judgments based upon a players first 2 pro games ever played?

    Maybe there is some disappointment. That it took more than 1 game to settle in to the higher speed level at pro?

    I know having watched his first pro game he looked good to me. He was being thrown in the fire pretty fast. He seemed to be out there against the top line on the other team much of the time. He played on the PP and PK and seemed log a lot of ice.

    I think this post and some of the reactions are at least 30 or 40 games too soon. I hate to break to anyone but Tom Gilbert did not look that amazing right off the bat in the AHL. He was a couple years older than Chorney too.

    Asia I respect how well you seem to know your goaltenders. Having been able to follow our prospects closely in college the last couple seasons. I must say your read on the various college kid from a number of posts I have seen is a little out to lunch.

  8. Asiaoil says:

    Smid was a decent AHL dman at 19 years old – very little for him to prove in that venue after another 140 odd NHL games – but Chorney has LOTS to work and so does Peckham based on his performance last year.

    Seems most people judge Smid based on who he was traded for and by the fact that he’s not a top pair NHL dman at 21 rather than by any other more reasonable evaluations of his progress. He’s not an all-star already so he’s a “disappointment”. Chorney and Peckham were drafted later and are developing slower but are considered to be “doing well”. That’s just bullshit as far as I’m concerned.

    Let’s talk about NHL games played at the same age – that’s as good an indicator as any as to how well and how fast a guy is developing. Put Chorney or Peckham in Smid’s shoes at the same age (playing tough minutes as a 20 year old) and we would still be washing the blood off Rexall ice after they bled goals left right and center.

    All this talk about Smid being a disappointment is so familiar – go back a few years and see how disappointed people were in Phillips and Volchenkov. Defensive dmen take time to develop – and elite defensive dmen rarely come into their own until 25. Trade Smid if you want – but Peckham and Chorney would bleed twice as many goals and possess half the upside.

  9. trader says:

    Just pulling your chain LT…I know you let guys say what they think…I just get a kick out of the quick responses to anything involving Smid or Pouliot..makes for great reading…and on Thanksgiving Day I am thankful for the many great reads.

  10. Asiaoil says:

    Oilerdiehard…I think Chorney will be a decent little dman in time. He’s bright, has good positioning and a bit of offensive talent – but he’s small and nowhere near ready for the NHL and I doubt he will be anywhere near as good as Gilbert who arguably accomplished more in college.

    As for the rest of our college guys – I follow them pretty closely since I’m at an NCAA school. I liked Cogliano from day 1 and defended his scoring touch all through his first year at Michigan. The fact that I would consider trading him now is all about buy low and sell high – not that I don’t think he’s a solid player. VDV is developing but no sure thing to be an NHLer. Paukovich sucks and always did along with Caron, McDonald, Winchester and the rest of the coke machines. Wild will be lucky to be an NHLer. Only guy who has serious potential right now in the NCAA is Nash who projects to be a Horcoff type player at some point. So Nash Cogs and Chorney are the only recent NCAA guys to get even remotely excited about – if that’s off-based then so be it.

  11. Backhand says:

    AO: Petry getting no love?

  12. Dennis says:

    Allow me to say that the reason why LT didn’t delete my posts about the Pronger trade is because he knows I’m right:)

  13. trader says:

    Dennis, everyone here knows that if they want to know if you are right all they have to do is ask you.

  14. Matt says:

    don’t we have enough “high event” defenders? I’d think most of the ‘Nation think we have at least three of them. It’s a shame we let Bergeron and Poti get away.

    There’s a running joke between one of my friends and I that high risk players don’t last for very long in Edmonton because Charlie Huddy dishes out numerous beat downs for soft and/or high risk plays. Anyone else see this as a legitimate possibility?

  15. Asiaoil says:

    backhand…forgot about Petry but he’s a guy that may be over-rated since he’s only about 7 months younger than Chorney. He’s been older than his peers over the past 3 years so it’s hard to read him. Nice package of size and speed but I’m wary of him because of his development profile.

  16. oilerdiehard says:

    AO – One comment that popped into my head when I wrote that. You were saying in another LT blogpost entry a month or two ago. That Cogliano showed very little to no offensive pedigree in college or something to that effect.

    I was thinking to myself. He does realize in only his 2nd year that he was if I recall correctly. In the top 8 in the nation in points and I think top 7 in the nation in goals right? He did so playing on the 2nd line (the first line of Porter-Hensick-Rolhfs got the heavy rotation) and often on the 2nd PP unit.

    With VV I tend to agree with you. He may eventually make the show one day. But I have a feeling most of his offense will not come with him. Bottom six material / potential by my eye.

    I disagree on how far away you feel Chorney is (re: “at least 2 years of AHL…before being ready to be a 7th dman at the NHL level”) though. IMO it will be sooner than that by half.

    Also I still think his first 2 pro games are far too small of a sample size to judge anything. I did watch some early Tom Gilbert in the AHL and he did not look any better than Chorney does now IMO (to start off with). Gilbert was being sheltered more than Chorney has been so far to start his first pro season. I feel you are underestimating how close Chorney is.

  17. raventalon40 says:

    asia and oilerdiehard:

    I think Smid’s value to the Oilers comes down to:

    a) how close are Chorney and Peckham?
    b) who is Smid paired with
    c) availability of similar players
    d) adaptability (does Smid bring more to the table, or not?)

    Chorney, Peckham and maybe even Young may be close behind but that doesn’t necessarily mean their transition to the NHL game will be any smoother than Smid’s, so on that score, I would say Smid’s NHL experience thus far would be his advantage plus development potential is not really a factor considering they’re all young defensemen. However, if we’re talking about doing what Smid does well on a regular basis, Peckham and Young are definitely not far behind. The only sure thing is Young will never blossom offensively, whereas Peckham’s offensive upside is yet to be determined.

    I am adamant (as some others probably would be) that who Smid is paired with will be crucial to his development. Not to be down on Staios, but his being paired with not-so-steady Steve probably doesn’t help his development.

    Now MacTavish talked about Smid not standing out above the crowd and not meeting expectations… but what are those, exactly? He’s shown that he can be a tough customer, he fights, hits, blocks shots, and is willing to tussle in front of the net. He may not be a Volchenkov or a Phaneuf when it comes to those departments, but he’s not ineffective by any means. If they mean they expect more out of him offensively, then I would be left scratching my head because we already have Souray, Visnovsky, Gilbert, and to some degree, Staios and Grebeshkov.

    If really that is what MacT expects, Smid is just a victim of the math.

    Bottom line: I’m not convinced that Strudwick is any better than Smid, other than in the toughness department. Smid is younger, faster, and has better passing skills. And I’m sure Strudwick has already hit the peak of his development curve.

    Smid’s trade value may never get any higher than it is now… but that’s assuming he’s nearing the peak of his development. I’m sure nobody would bet on the fact that he’s “done” at age 22. That’s probably why Strudwick and Grebs were signed to one year deals. Strudwick is a stopgap and Grebs is a question-mark.

    Smid, by comparison, is actually one of the usual suspects: you know what to expect from him game-in and game-out and anything above that would be a pleasant surprise.

  18. Asiaoil says:

    oilerdiehard….go back to the old HF Boards and you will find me being delighted that we drafted Cogs and more than happy with his play in Michigan. His shooting percentage last year was silly and it’s almost certain to come down – that has nothing to do with his talent level. I have liked the player since day 1 as LT can attest to – but I’m not beyond dealing him since we have an abundance of small centers and his value very high right now (but almost sure to come down after his shooting percentage drops this season).

    As for Smid, Chorney and Peckham – Smid has about 140 games of NHL experience as a 20-21 year old, 70 AHL games as a 19 year old, and about 40 games in the Czech Pro league as an 18 year old. He’s up around 250 pro games and he’s only 22. That a darn good foundation for a young defensive dman since the light usually goes on for these guys at 25 or about 300 games. That’s why I think Smid will come on this year – he’s right at the point where it should all start to come together for him. If it does then he will be one hell of player for a long time because he got so much experience so young.

    In comparison Peckham has 1 NHL game and 59 games of AHL experience as a 20 year old, while Chorney has zeros across the board. That’s why I say those guys are at least 2 years behind Smid – there is simply no replacing experience and maturity when you play defense in the NHL. On top of that both Chorney and Peckham are less talented than Smid. Sure you could put either guy on the ice instead of Smid – all that would get you is a lesser version of Smid 2 years ago.

    So this whole notion that Chorney and Peckham are somehow on Smid’s heels is foolishness IMHO and with all respect to LT. Replacing him with guys even younger and less experienced does nothing for the team – and there just isnt any basis for thinking it will work out beyond wishful thinking.

  19. raventalon40 says:

    IMHO, we should trade Smid because he deserves better than the pressbox. Having Strudwick around is an utter inconvenience to his development (unless, of course, Smid outplays him and takes his job at some point) and getting fair market value for him could mean a player that will solve our faceoff and 3rd-line centerman woes.

  20. Bruce says:

    Great thread, fellows. Excellent back-and-forth discussion with a little comic relief from Dennis pimping himself. :)

    I’m of the school that says it would be crazy to trade Smid now, for the reasons most recently stated by AsiaOil. A couple weeks ago I had a detailed look at Smid here and here. I think the data presented there supports the case that Ladi’s “slow” development curve is hardly unusual for even a highly-rated young defenceman.

    I am adamant (as some others probably would be) that who Smid is paired with will be crucial to his development. Not to be down on Staios, but his being paired with not-so-steady Steve probably doesn’t help his development.

    RT40: Agreed on both counts. There’s two right D I wouldn’t mind seeing Smid paired with, and neither of them is named Steve. My first choice would be Visnovsky. The politics of salary might interfere with that, not to mention different expectations of ice time. After a pretty steady diet of Staios and Greene the last two years, I’d like to see Ladi paired with a skilled puck mover. But the roster doesn’t really set up that way just now.

    Especially with Smid in the press box. :)

  21. Dennis says:

    My biggest issue — at least these days anyway;) — is that it will be time to start paying him after this season and I really don’t see any need to given the way he’s played the first couple of years.

    Yes, that might be an acceptable level of progression for other D his age but I don’t think it’s acceptable in terms of getting a big payday.

    With every player right now it comes down to how valuable they are in terms of how much cap do you want to spend on them and I’m not convinced that Smid’s worth gambling on cash-wise.

  22. HBomb says:

    You know who would be a perfect partner, developmentally, for Smid?

    Kyle McLaren.

    I’m not sayin’, I’m just sayin’….

    Get San Jose to put McLaren on re-entry waivers, then to compensate, offer up Grebeshkov and see if he can fetch a 3rd line center (despite two assists in the first game, I’m still not as impressed with 37 as some, and I think he’s going to be an issue to sign next summer, so it might be prudent to get value for him while you can, before he jumps to the KHL).

    Makes perfect sense to me.

  23. Bank Shot says:

    But you don’t have to pay a guy if he doesn’t get the results. Smid will be on another cheapish contract if he doesn’t breakout this year.

  24. Doogie2K says:

    My biggest issue — at least these days anyway;) — is that it will be time to start paying him after this season and I really don’t see any need to given the way he’s played the first couple of years.

    Actually, this is exactly why I’m not worried about it. What would his basis be for a significant salary demand? Unless the light goes on and he suddenly starts consistently playing like a seasoned vet — in which case, go us — I can’t imagine him going far past $1M. Don’t forget, Olczyk has his scale: he wouldn’t give Glencross much more than $1M, either.

  25. oilerdiehard says:

    AO – We definitely disagree on you saying Smid has more talent than Chorney.

    I think we all hope the light goes on for Smid. That he stops making those exact same mistakes that he was making in year 1 repeatedly. But I think one thing watching Smid that seems apparent is his talent level was over hyped. He could still end being a solid D man and more physical than many thought originally. He is a great kid with a good attitude though.

    But Chorney has a great first pass and a pretty good shot. He can QB a power play efficiently, he is solid PK guy. He is a great skater and is a very agile and nimble guy who possesses a good natural hockey sense. Shows leadership qualities and the ability to adapt to situations pretty quickly.

    I do not think Smid’s talent tool shed contains much of the above. He has a worse shot, he is an inferior passer, he is a worse skater than Chorney and does not seem to have a ton of hockey sense / anticipation skills. I think Chorney has a higher skill level and as LT loves to say a wider range of skills. IMO he will end up being an all around better D man than Smid.

  26. Bruce says:

    But you don’t have to pay a guy if he doesn’t get the results. Smid will be on another cheapish contract if he doesn’t breakout this year.

    See: Pouliot, M.A.

  27. toqueboy says:

    sorry to thread jack, but….

    rumour has it that macintyre is in for the ducks and storts is out…

    does this miss the point to anyone else? shouldn’t pouliot be sitting and storts be in so we send a real message?

    if we’re committing to a physical game, why take out our most physical player?

  28. Quain says:

    Smid is a fine player who will be a top four defenseman. There’s way too much hand-wringing about a 22 year old kid not being good enough yet.

    The real problem here is the Lowe/MacT abuse of Smid. The first two seasons he’s here? He plays minutes he shouldn’t have seen (.05, .01 qualcomp) when this team could’ve used… anyone else to stop the bleeding. The third year, when he’s turning around, starting to look like a player (he was solid playing third pairing minutes last season), he has to compete with Jason Strudwick for the cake minutes.

    Season one and two when he should’ve been in the AHL or at least had a Marty Reasoner taking bullets for him like the kids had, he spends paired up with Staios getting blamed for every mistake that pairing makes (Staios looks terrible because he’s too worried about Smid!!!)

    Season three, when he should be looking at a full season of third pairing minutes and popping up to the top four during injuries or when he’s playing particularly well? Pressbox.

    Trade him away so we can stop watching management butcher his development.

  29. doritogrande says:

    “Now MacTavish talked about Smid not standing out above the crowd and not meeting expectations… but what are those, exactly? He’s shown that he can be a tough customer, he fights, hits, blocks shots, and is willing to tussle in front of the net.”

    Problem is, 3 of those 4 qualities you mention happen after the whistle, like Pavlovian conditioning. He here’s whistle, and instead of salivating he kicks ass. Not exactly what we need him to do. I learned about this last year. We need to condition Smid to a different stimulus, as a form of Operant Conditioning.

    I suggest the sight of a puck in his defensive zone.

    Regarding Chorney and Peckham (others to be brought up at a later date), we’ve finally got defensive depth in the system, so we can afford to let them make their mistakes in the AHL, and not subject them to the same treatment that Smid, Greene, and to a lesser extent Gilbert had. Let’s face it, these three guys were brought along at a steep development curve, and only one (Gilbert) has much to show for it at this point. Problem being, Gilbert is years older than Smid and was allowed to make the necessary adjustments in college. Smid’s been accelerated beyond what he was prepared for because of a)lack of farm team, and b)lack of NHL defenders. I believe Chaos Bergeron was playing top-4 minutes that season, correct? Says a lot about the defense that year.

  30. Dennis says:

    TB: I can see what you’re saying. If 78 was being counted on to take draws, then I can see why he’d stay in.

    But that doesn’t look to be the case so I’ll be surprised it it does wind up being 46 out and 33 in.

  31. Bruce says:

    if we’re committing to a physical game, why take out our most physical player?

    Good fucking question. Makes no sense to me. I thought the whole idea of SMac was additional muscle, not replacement muscle. If anything this proposed change (which was in today’s Journal btw) would make our team less tough because SMac is even more likely to spend his time stapled to the bench.

    If we’re planning to goon it up against Anaheim or anybody, I want Stortini in the lineup.

  32. Quain says:

    I’m not even sure why we’re gooning it up against Anaheim, I thought we went 3-1 against them last season while having a team averaging 132lbs per player.

  33. doritogrande says:

    Marek Malik, a player definitely not “high event” signs with Tbay. 1.2M dollars.

    Would anyone have wanted him for that kind of coin over a Strudwick/Smid? I personally wouldn’t.

  34. Jonathan says:

    Marek Malik, a player definitely not “high event” signs with Tbay. 1.2M dollars.

    Would anyone have wanted him for that kind of coin over a Strudwick/Smid? I personally wouldn’t.

    Yep. I would. Quality results against tough competition for years. Brings a skillset not replicated on the roster and some size to boot.

  35. Schitzo says:

    quain: I agree. Wasn’t it against Anaheim that Stortini had them so livid they basically handed us the game on the PP?

  36. Lowetide says:

    Malik would have been perfect imo.

  37. spOILer says:

    Thinking about the victory over the Avs…

    Seems to me since Xmas 07 that was the kind of game we normally would have lost, or gave up a point in a shootout victory.

    Maybe less panic to this team (altho’ it’s still there), which could bode well if some day they learn how to break out of their own end, not to mention how to forecheck.

    Souray earned that assist on Penner’s second goal.

    Storts should be playing against Anaheim considering his play against them last year. Still MacT gets to keep a face-off man, and double-shift some guys who need more ice time.

  38. doritogrande says:

    schitzo:

    That was actually Ryan Smyth that Guigere flipped on a couple years ago. Ol’ Mullet got up in his grill and Giggy handed Mr. Smyth a trapper sammich. Twice, IIRC. Oilers scored twice on the multiple penalties Guigere was assessed. I think I remember Pronger(spits) getting one.

    Jonathan+Lowetide:

    I think I’d take Malik over a Staios-type, yes. But 1.2M is too rich for me, when compared to the Strudwick signing and the development of Smid. Both of which I believe are more significant on this team. If we could shed the Staios contract in favour of the Malik one, I’d be first in line to heap praise on the pile.

  39. raventalon40 says:

    My biggest issue — at least these days anyway;) — is that it will be time to start paying him after this season and I really don’t see any need to given the way he’s played the first couple of years.

    Yes, that might be an acceptable level of progression for other D his age but I don’t think it’s acceptable in terms of getting a big payday.

    He’s already met expectations – he’s a defensive defender who can make the outlet pass. In fact, he might already possess a better outlet pass than Staios.

    He’s no Paul Coffey, but hey, were those the expectations?

    You know who would be a perfect partner, developmentally, for Smid?

    Kyle McLaren.

    I’m not sayin’, I’m just sayin’….

    With all due respect to you hbomb, acquiring McLaren is the equivalent of acquiring Derian Hatcher… unless we’re going back to the style of hockey we played in the spring of 2006 (which was pretty successful, mind you) which is the opposite direction Katz and crew seem to be taking us, this will not happen.

    At least Strudwick can kind of keep up with the rest of the team!

    Guys like Souray, Smid, Staios and Peckham are good examples of guys who would fit in here: guys who have more than one dimention to their game.

    That’s right, I said in the same post comments that Smid is a usual suspect and a two-dimentional player. Why? Because anybody who has seen Smid play knows he can rush the puck and pass it. It’s only a matter of time before he under goes a Grebeshkovian transformation.

  40. Dennis says:

    I have seen Smid play many times but I haven’t seen him rush the puck to the extent where it’s an expected play.

    DG: Yeah, that was also a nationally televised game on TSN.

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