Would You?

Rumors abound about the Minnesota Wild trading Marian Gaborik.

He’ll be a UFA next summer and the pure cost will be incredible. However, if the Oilers could trade for him, sign him and give up things other than Ales Hemsky and Sam Gagner would you consider it worthwhile?

A top 6F that included Marian Gaborik, Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff, Erik Cole, Sam Gagner and the guy not dealt as part of the trade (Cogliano or Nilsson) is a pretty sweet group.

So, would you do it? And what would it cost?

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45 Responses to "Would You?"

  1. Lord Bob says:

    The question is, with Marian Gaborik and without the assets it would take to get him, are the Oilers favourites to win the Stanley Cup?

    I don’t think the answer to that question is “yes”. Therefore, I don’t do the deal.

  2. Jeanshorts And Baggedmilk says:

    Dear Lowetide,

    I wouldn’t do this trade because although Marian Gaborik kicks a million asses when he’s healthy. He is injury prone and the chances of him signing right after a trade are slim anyway. I’d rather keep the young talent we have and let big daddy Katz open his wallet in the off season.

    Your faithful follower,

    -baggedmilk

  3. Paulus says:

    Roloson for Gaborik straight up, and if the Oilers win the Stanley Cup this year, Risebrough gets the keys to Katz Manor and, of course the bat cave.

    But seriously, it’s hard to imagine the Wild would want anything less than a hefty slice of our top 6. Plus, I figure they’d want to keep Marian out of the hands of a divisional rival, although that has not stopped them before.

    I’d do it if Nilsson was the deal’s centerpiece.

  4. loudog says:

    I wouldn’t do it.

    He’s too injury prone imo. Plus we’d have to play (and see) Cogs or Nilsson and whoever else in a wild uniform. Which would really suck. Would remind me of the Smyth thing, even if it’d be a very different situation.

    I think the kids have too much potential to trade for an awesome but injury-prone player.

    Go east Marian!

    ps. I love the blog LT. Keep it up!

  5. doritogrande says:

    Depending on if he signed an extension to stay…

    If he does: Cogliano, Grebeshkov, First and Second rounders.

    If he doesn’t: Cole, first round.

  6. Mark-Ryan says:

    Minnesota doesn’t do it at all.

    When has a team, one that looks like it’s in good shape, ever traded a superstar to a division rival? Has it ever happened since the formation of the regional divisions?

    Selanne to the Sharks, maybe. The only example I can think of from the top of my head. But you’d think the ridiculous badness of that trade would prevent anyone from doing it again.

    And, of course, he would never resign. And even if he did, he’s apparently asking for $10 million a year for 10 years.

    Just all sorts of ‘not happening’ from every different angle.

  7. Bob Arctor says:

    No thanks! And I’d pass on him and Hossa in the off season too. Both will receive contracts that will be difficult to out perform.

    Most in Edmonton are enamored with idea of a “Superstar” player. It’s not worth the assets you have to give up. I’d rather we trade Marty Reasoners for the next Samsonov.
    (ie Havlat if the Hawks are out of the playoff race.).

  8. Paul says:

    Depending on the contract extension and what it does going forward, I think you have to do it. I don’t even think you can pull Gagner off the table. Gaborik is only 26/27, and I’m not sure that the upside of any of the kids matches what he is right now. It’s not the case of having to do it because you’re in win-now mode, but because he immediately becomes the best player on the roster. In that sense, I’m not even sure you don’t consider Hemsky, though you obviously wouldn’t be throwing in much else.

  9. HBomb says:

    Gaborik’s an exceptional talent, injuries notwithstanding. Just like Hossa.

    However, it’s not what we need.

    I still think Jay Boumeester via trade (Souray plus one of Nilsson or Cogliano plus other assets as required) or a hard UFA run at Komisarek next summer (using Grebeshkov as trade bait for improvement elsewhere and giving his money plus some more to MK) would be the smarter approach.

    Forward, aside from maybe a veteran C later this season, is NOT where this team needs top end help. We could use a top-end stopper on the back-end, however….

  10. raventalon40 says:

    I would do it because our farm is in good shape. I would much rather trade draft picks than prospects but of course you’d have to give up current roster players in order to fit him and sign him long term. So some combination of roster players and draft picks would be ideal.

    To Edmonton:

    [item 1] Marian Gaborik (UFA, no guarantee on long term deal)
    [item 2] Brent Burns
    [item 3] 3rd round pick

    To Minnesota:

    [item 1] Cogliano or Nilsson
    [item 2] Dustin Penner or Erik Cole (UFA, no guarantee on long term deal)
    [item 3] Steve Staios
    [item 4] one of Cody Wild or Josef Hrabal, or if worse comes to worst, one of Taylor Chorney or Ladislav Smid
    [item 5] 1st round pick
    [item 6] 2nd round pick

    And then we’d still need to find a way to unload Roloson’s contract to sign Gaborik, Garon, Brodziak, and Grebeshkov…

  11. raventalon40 says:

    Sorry, didn’t explain well enough in the last post:

    If it’s a lopsided deal, it wouldn’t be worth it. And we’d need to score a D-man while we’re at it.

    Or no deal.

    We can’t give up more than 1/3 of the kid line at a time: they’ve shown that they are pretty clutch performers.

    As for Erik Cole and Dustin Penner, we can’t give up both so if Minnesota wanted them they’d have to choose one. Unless Tambellini signs him long term, preference would have to be on Cole…

    To pick up Brent Burns would be great but we’d have to give up an existing roster player. Or maybe 2. That’s why I included the fringe D-men at the bottom along with an actual veteran in Staios.

    To be honest, I think that this offer is a bit of an overpayment already, and I would hate to let so much go unless there was some understanding that Gaborik could be signed long term.

  12. Bruce says:

    When has a team, one that looks like it’s in good shape, ever traded a superstar to a division rival? Has it ever happened since the formation of the regional divisions?

    Mark-Ryan: Gretzky to L.A. is one that comes to mind.

    Among active players and on a lesser scale, Chelios from Chicago to Detroit was an intradivisional deal of some note. Jeremy Roenick from Chicago to Phoenix. Teemu Selanne from Anaheim to San Jose. Arguable how “good shape” the trading teams were in each case. You’re right, such trades are pretty rare … I’m hard pressed to come up with others.

  13. Asiaoil says:

    Aside from pouncing if an elite young goalie becomes available (Lehtonen?) I think you stay the course and try keep the team together until you see how the Cogs, Gags contracts play out.

  14. MJT says:

    I agree with Lord Bob that adding Gaborik doesn’t make us cup contenders this year, and given that we’re already going to be pressed to bring back Cole, Grebeshkov, Garon, and Brodziak given our cap space. If the deal were to go down I think Penner would have to be going the other way given his 4.25M cap hit, but obviously more would be needed to lure him. By the way it’s my guess that the salary cap will go down for the first time this summer and teams will be in real tough shape to get under the cap and unrestricted free agents will be the hardest hit. By that time Gaborik and Hossa may well regret not signing the long term deals which they were offered.

    IMO if we’re going to dangle some of our young assets we should be targeting a shutdown defenseman for a playoff run, preferably one who is signed for another year or two after this year.

  15. Swabbubba says:

    I would want to pass on this. The price would be to high. Then there is the other issue how would it play in team chemistry

  16. Doogie2K says:

    Considering Gaborik’s groin is only slightly stronger than Dominik Hasek’s, I would consider that insane, given the likely term and dollars we’d be talking about. I’m much more interested in having our own young top six guys all locked up to reasonable post-RFA deals before going after The Missing Piece, if the need still exists.

    And I maintain that trading Nilsson is batshit. The odds of him outperforming his contract are fairly high, one would imagine.

  17. tcho says:

    If the Oil think they can sign Gaborik long term, then yes, trade. Any forward except Horc, Hemsky, or Gagner’s fair game.

    If not, then don’t. This probably isn’t the year we take a run at the cup (though next year, already, might be).

  18. Coach pb9617 says:

    Pass.

    Sign him in the offseason if you want him that bad. There’s no way in hades I’m giving up the rest of Bobby for a few months of Gaborik.

  19. Quain says:

    Let’s ask the important question here: What’s his GroinInjuries/60?

  20. godot10 says:

    The Canadian dollar is under 85 cents. The cap will be going down next year.

    No Hossa. No Gaborik. And likely no Erik Cole either as a result.

    If there were no declining cap issues, Robert Nilsson is Gaborik-light. So no again. I’d rather have a deeper roster of above average players than a few superstars.

    Gaborik doesn’t add anything that isn’t provided by Hemsky, Nilsson, and Cogliano, and doesn’t provide the physicality that Cole and size that Penner provides.

    The Oilers are potentially 11 quality forwards deep right now, with the ability to use the kid line to create mismatches.

  21. Coach pb9617 says:

    The Canadian dollar is under 85 cents. The cap will be going down next year.

    If that holds, and revenue stays flat (not unlikely given the current situation) then the cap will drop by $3 million by my calcs.

  22. Jonathan says:

    Salary would need to be cleared to make that trade; I can’t see the Oilers doing it without one of Gilbert/Souray/Visnovsky/Horcoff going the other way (purely from a salary perspective).

    If the trade were something like:
    Souray/Cogliano/1st, and Gaborik would sign long-term, I’d very, very strongly consider it.

  23. Steve says:

    I clicked “Comments” to say exactly what Lord Bob said, but then, reading on, I decided that Doritogrande said it pretty well (though if the Wild are moving their UFA to be, what would they want in another UFA to be like Cole?).

  24. CM says:

    I don’t think the cap will go down…what I would assume would happen is the players would lose money for the first time on their escrow payments…

  25. Jeanshorts And Baggedmilk says:

    Dear Lowetide Deciples,

    Are you all insane? A lot of you would sell the farm for a guy that hasn’t played a full year in a long time. Has he ever? Getting rid of all our talent for this ice rocket is a desperate act IMO. We have the resources to try and lure a big fish now. That hasn’t happened before. So how about we keep our lines in the water and relax before blowing our talent wad on Marian Gaborik.

    -baggedmilk

  26. Kyle says:

    Absolutely not – I’m not putting that amount of resources into a guy who’s hurt half the time and complaining about being hurt the other half. The talent is undeniable, the rest is questionable.

  27. Schitzo says:

    Re: the salary cap

    Keep in mind season ticket renewals and luxury boxes were paid for when the dollar was at par 3 months ago. A good chunk of this year’s revenue is already in the coffers. It won’t be THIS offseason we see the cap take a plunge, it’ll be the year after.

  28. Bruce says:

    “Groins” Gaborik has played over 65 GP exactly once since 2002-03. No doubt he will want to be paid like an 82 GP-a-year player. We’re already carrying one will-he-or-won’t-he millstone in Souray, who represents a substantial cap hit but at least didn’t cost us substantial assets going the other way.

    Gaborik seems to be one of those thoroughbreds who has to be feeling good to play well. See also: Martin Havlat, Joni Pitkanen. Personally speaking, those guys drive me batshit. To throw a Cogs/Nilsson PLUS the other way for a guy with a history of injury, who is injured yet again now, who is UFA at season’s end and who is looking for payroll-defining money, I’m not interested.

    Then there’s this from 2007-08:

    Regular season: 77 GP, 42-41-83, +17
    Post season: 6 GP, 0-1-1, -3

    Looking ahead I don’t think lack of offence is Oilers’ problem: while there’s no single big gunner there’s easily half a dozen guys who could surpass the 20-goal mark and another half dozen who are apt to reach double digits. If we’re going to target an unhappy pending-UFA, far better it be Bouwmeester in my view.

  29. heed says:

    that glass groin can stay in minnesota.

  30. MotherPucker.ca says:

    Yeah I wouldn’t want to trade for him as we would have to give up much more than we’d like. As another commenter stated, I’d like to see if he could be signed as a UFA next summer. That way we don’t loose anyone, and can keep him longer.

  31. george says:

    i think people will be surprised how little Gaborik fetches. The only deal the oilers should make for him has to involve penner, smid, a prospect and a pick.

  32. Sean says:

    The Penguins gave up Erik Christensen, forward Colby Armstrong, prospect Angelo Esposito and a 2008 first-round pick for Hossa. The Oilers don’t have a comparable to Cristensen or Armstrong because the roster is so young but would you say its comparable to Brodziak, Schremp, Nash and a first? Minnesota IMO would have interest in a player like Schremp. They lack offensive depth. I still dont like giving up a ton for an injury prone player. I wouldnt even consider Gaborik if Cogs or Nilsson is involved unless there were guarantees of an extension. Even then with Sourray and Lubo in the books, another high ticket contract may not be advisable unless we ditch salary.

    The Oilers need to add comparable players to Kesler and Rhegher.

  33. MJT says:

    coach: I’m curious to know how you came up with that 3M number. I was looking for info on revenues for last season and I couldn’t find it. If you’ve got a link that would be great.

  34. Scott says:

    Bringing in Gaborik for this year would significantly increase the chances of both making the playoffs and making a run. If he’s healthy, he’s great. That said, next year is the year that the Oilers will have their best shot with this roster as both Gagner and Cogliano will be on the last year of their cheap contracts. So in any deal one needs to try to maximize the potential of this year’s team to succeed while not giving up anything that will seriously hurt next year’s team.

    What would we want this year’s lines to look like with the addition of Gaborik before giving anything up? Probably something like:

    Horcoff-Gaborik-Hemsky
    Cogliano-Gagner-Nilsson
    Pouliot-Penner-Cole
    Brodziak-Moreau-Pisani

    So you don’t get rid of any of those guys. Stortini and Mac are probably useless for the purposes of trade so they’re probably staying too. To me, you just tell Minnesota that they can have two of any other forward in the system currently under an NHL contract. It would seem likely some NHL talent would be required, so before you do the deal you make a decision on Smid-Grebeshkov. One gets signed to an extension, the other gets moved. Add in some draft picks and hopefully you can have a deal.

    Something like Smid-Schremp-Brule-1st-2nd

  35. Mark-Ryan says:

    Bruce:

    I said Since the formation of the regional division. when has Los Angeles played in the North West? Same with Chicago and Phoenix – one team is Central then other is Pacific. Chelios is another example… but he had kind of degenerated to a half point-per-game guy, arguably a really good second pairing guy by the time Detroit got him.

    I don’t know… I think Minnesota would take a worse deal to keep him out of this division. Hell, lately teams have made worse deals to keep superstars out of their conference (Thornton)

  36. R-Gib says:

    If the Oil trade for “Sick Bay” Gaborik, then I hope they are sending back equally injury-prone players: Souray, Moreau, etc.

    Also, this dude’s cap hit is $6.33M this year. Who has that kind of space this early in the season? As said above, some serious salary should be going the other way as well. I would guess he’ll be asking in the $8.5-9.5M/yr range, and want long-term. What team really wants 1/6 of their cap to go to this guy?

    As an aside, Nilsson is a cheap cap hit for a top six at $1.83M for the next 3 years and RFA after, so it makes NO sense to trade a quality cheap building block (and others) for an oft-injured picky “superstar”.

  37. oilerdago says:

    Bruce makes a great point that I’m surprised others missed. Gaborik vanished in the playoffs last year. Fluke or is he another Heatley who wilts under the pressure.

    I say no deal, even for a rental.

  38. Mustafa Hirji says:

    If they give up their star, they’ll want a future star as return, or at least a current star who’s locked up. That means Gagner, or at least (Cogliano + extra).

    For a one year rental, I say no deal.

    - Mustafa Hirji

  39. George B says:

    I love this player. If I was almost any other team, I would figure out how to make a pitch, but our team should let someone else bite the bullet and overpay for him.

    I would rather wait until the offseason and see if we can reasonably sign a guy like Afinogenov, Havlat, or even Hossa. There are some prime UFA targets in the offseason.

    Giving up a ton for a guy that is a marginal re-sign is a bad move, unless your window to win is this year.

  40. Slipper says:

    Gaborik vanished in the playoffs last year. Fluke or is he another Heatley who wilts under the pressure.

    They said that about Datysuk, and Zetterberg, and Hossa, and Alfredsson, and Turco, and Pronger, and Bourque…

  41. Alice says:

    Hopefully Gaborik’s just the kind of splash Burke will want to make when he lands in Toronto. Can you imagine him sitting still for long on the house that Cliff built? One guy can’t do the whole job, ask Crosbie, Malkin AND Hossa. Let me re-phrase: Three guys can’t do the whole job. Gassing 15% of your payroll in one star is a marketing play, not a hockey play.

  42. Bruce says:

    I said Since the formation of the regional division. when has Los Angeles played in the North West?

    Mark-Ryan: Sorry, to me “regional” means when they went east-west again in the early 80s after a few years of total schmozzle. L.A. was in the Smythe Division with Winnipeg, Calgary, Vancouver, and Edmonton, playing 16 home games a year against these small and little-known Canadian markets.

    But certainly that was a trade involving a divisional rival. The Oilers and Kings played 55 (!) meaningful games against each other in the four years that followed.

    They said that about Datysuk, and Zetterberg, and Hossa, and Alfredsson, and Turco, and Pronger, and Bourque…

    … and Tkachuk, and Yashin, and Bertuzzi, and Redden … in some cases, there’s a shred of truth in it. But your point is well taken, Slipper; only last year did Gaborik actively suck in the postseason, so one can hardly make a criminal case against him. I just thought it was worth a mention. Might make him a tad more expendable from Minny’s perspective.

  43. Slipper says:

    Yeah, I can’t speak for the intelligence level of the management team in Minnesota off hand. Perhaps they are pretty stupid.

    Gaborik had zero goals on 25 shots on net in six games. I’m guessing he was either hurt, snakebit, or both.

  44. Bruce says:

    Pretty fair chance he was hurt. Say no more.

  45. Master Lok says:

    Old adage about getting service that is fast, good and cheap. You can only have at most, two of the three.

    Gaborik is fragile, quality and expensive. He’s only one of three. Certainly not worth $8 million in cap space.

    I wouldn’t even sign him as a UFA for $8-10 million in the summer. For $5 million? Then absolutely yes.

    Pass.

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