Updated AHL EVs

I promised to update the EV numbers for Springfield forwards in 5 game intervals this season.

The first 5 games (plus an overview of the last few seasons) is contained here. If you’re too lazy to click through, the general idea is that I placed a .500 “line in the sand” for forwards at EVs. If an AHL player could score 30 points at evens in 60 games, he’d qualify.

Going back to 05-06, there were two AHL regulars who both played 50+ games and had an EV number above .500/game. Those players (the 06-07 versions of Kyle Brodziak and Robert Nilsson) became NHL regulars the following season, prompting me to see if we could possibly identify a starter for next season.

Make sense? Hope so.

Anyway, the kids Edmonton fans are really familiar with have never been able to make the grade using this tool. Here’s some numbers for famous prospects:

  • Marc Pouliot: .323, .424, .420 in 3 AHL seasons.
  • Alexei Mikhnov: .481 in 06-07.
  • Rob Schremp: .362 and .431.

Brodziak’s climb (.363 to .559 season over season) is sort of the ideal I’m looking for in this so the Schremp totals are important to remember.

Okay, we’re looking for players who can score at .500/EVs in the AHL. Here’s the current list of Springfield forwards:

  1. Rob Schremp 8gp, 0-7-7 (.875)
  2. Ryan Potulny 10gp, 5-1-6 (.600)
  3. Slava Trukhno 10gp, 1-3-4 (.400)
  4. Liam Reddox 10gp, 1-3-4 (.400)
  5. Gilbert Brule 5gp, 2-0-2 (.400)
  6. Stephane Goulet 5gp, 1-1-2 (.400)
  7. Bryan Lerg 3gp, 1-0-1 (.333)
  8. Geoff Paukovich 3gp, 1-0-1 (.333)
  9. Colin McDonald 10gp, 2-1-3 (.300)
  10. Guillaume Lefebvre 9gp, 0-2-2 (.222)
  11. Tyler Spurgeon 10gp, 0-2-2 (.200)
  12. Tim Sestito 10gp, 2-0-2 (.200)
  13. Ryan O’Marra 6gp, 0-1-1 (.167)

Schremp is clearly making things happen and Potulny is having a wonderful start (also popping PP goals). Brule was hurt and now is back, he’s a guy to watch and Trukhno/Reddox are within reach and it’s early. Stephane Goulet remains an interesting player and Colin McDonald sinks like a stone the moment math enters the room.

Brodziak and Nilsson both emerged as NHL players the season after ripping it up in the minors. Rob Schremp and Ryan Potulny appear to be nice comps in this narrow view.

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19 Responses to "Updated AHL EVs"

  1. Asiaoil says:

    Sugartits could cut it on quite a few NHL teams right now – but not ours with several similar young players ahead of him. Clearly trade-bait – just depends when, where and for what. Third line center and goalie are my targets – teams like ATL and TOR seems like matches.

  2. doritogrande says:

    Judging by recent action, he and a 5-6 defenseman can net you Mathieu Carle.

    In case you haven’t seen it yet, Rob Schremp is Steve Downie in the trade that actually happened, along with Steve Eminger.

    I think it’s too soon to have given up on Downie and Carle’s now on his third team in about as many months.

  3. raventalon40 says:

    I wouldn’t mind giving Schremp a shot at a roster spot once we get the goalie situation and 3rd line C worked out.

    It wouldn’t hurt to have someone around who could fill in when any of Nilsson, Cogliano, or Gagner were unable to play up to par with the rest of the team – both to motivate them in a competitive way and to benefit the team overall by making things happen at EVs.

  4. B.C.B. says:

    While Schremp maybe tradebait, I would think it would be Cogs going out for the third line center or top four defense man. Then Shremp could play right wing with Gagne in the center and Nilisson on the left wing.

    With Horcoff’s extension and MacT’s stubborness to play a young gun at 3C, it seems we have too many small, skilled and young centers. Cogs and Gagne both cannot be our 2nd line centers for years to come. Gagne is clearly better and won’t be traded. If the Oilers want to move Gags back to center, they will have to move Cogs somewhere else (third line or another team); they already have moved schremp to the wing because of this (plus Shremps ability to play solid defensive). If Gags plays better the Horcoff then Gags is the first liner and Horc the second: Does anyone think that Cogs can outplay Horc in the next few years?

    I resuggest that Cogs gets moved for Mike Fisher, or a player of similar quality. Defensive expect with offensive upside. We would have the depth at center for many years (Horc, Gags, and Fisher would be one of the most solid top three centers in the league). Fisher could step up to play on second line, if one of the other two gets hurt. And duplicates Horc’s skillset to some degree, adding more depth.

    The lines could look like this:

    Penner-Horc-Hemmer
    Nilsson-Gags-Shremp/cole
    Moreau-Fisher-Pisani
    SMac/huggy bear -Brod – Poo

    the only problem would be payrole: it solved the problem of too many RFAs in the same year, Cole could not be resigned with Fisher’s contract on the books, and maybe the defensive would be hurt because it limits the payroll in different aspects. I think we would have to wait till later in the year too pull this off (or include Penner/Pisani/Moreau going somewhere to get Fisher under the cap).

    But I don’t think $13-14 mil is to much to spend on those three centers (Horc 5.2 for ever, fisher 4.2 till 12/13, and Gage 3.5-4? mil).

  5. Lowetide says:

    I think Gagner is going to be the #1 center someday, with Cogliano a nice #2 or as you say possibly traded.

    I don’t think the Oilers need to deal Cogliano at this time, plus they don’t know for certain just how good he can be offensively.

    Better to wait and see if he can pop 20 at an early age.

  6. B.C.B. says:

    LoweTide: If that is the case, is Horc supposed to be our number three center at $5.2 mil? I know I suggested a $4.2 million 3C: but Fisher has been nominated for the Selke and I consider him one of the best defensive centers in the game (Peca-like, when he played for the Islanders or Sabres).

    I rather see Cogs traded then Schremp (I know this will cause screaming by my fellow posters). I just don’t see him in our plans unless we are converting him to a defensive forward. Also Fisher already has proved he can put up 20 goals a year: so we would win there as well. (Come to think of it, we would have to add a vetern wing or another prospect to Cogs to get Fisher).

    Thanks, hope you enjoy the Esks game today, Lowetide.

  7. Lowetide says:

    I don’t think Schremp is in the equation. He needs to find a way to make it to the NHL and show he can win battles, pursue the puck, put up offense and contribute more than he costs.

    I think Cogliano is farther down that road at a younger age. That’s a huge consideration imo.

  8. B.C.B. says:

    On the point of “road to development”: Fisher is farther down then Cogs. He would fit into the plan of winning this year or in the next few (and be more of a benefit then Cogs). But I will accept that Schremp will not challange for a spot in the top two lines for now. But he would be an exciting winger for the future.

    Which gets too my point: we need a 3C, and cogs is not it. We have two 2C in Cogs and Gags, but at this point they are not ready to step up to the number one job (say if Horc gets hurt, I am knocking on wood). If Horc is out for a period of time, who is going to play the tough minutes?

    As I learned, from the posters at this site (and should have known), we are not getting that defensive center for spare parts: players like Madden, Fisher, etc would have a good young soon to be RFA going the other way.

    If we traded Cogs for Fisher, we know we be getting a 20 goal scorer, and not have to hope he would develop into one. We would get a player that could replace (temporary Horc or Gags), a fit for our 3C, and open up a spot at center for Gags. I see it as a triple win, with only one loss.

    Do you think P.J Axelson would be avialable and fit our 3C need. He would be cheaper then Fisher-like player.

  9. doritogrande says:

    Sorry b.c.b, but I stopped listening to you when you mentioned Schremp’s solid defensive ability.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Fisher costs 4.2 a year, Cogliano costs 1.13 a year and isn’t an RFA until 2010.

    I don’t think trading Cogliano is a good idea at this time. Better to see what he is before dealing him.

  11. B.C.B. says:

    Sorry DG: I meant that Schremp was moved to wing because of his “inability” to play defense. my sarcasm doesn’t come across on post: maybe I should start using those stupid happy/sad faces.

  12. DeBakey says:

    Replacing Cogliano with Schremp is a huge step backward

    Based on GP
    The Falcons top-9 forwards
    Rob Schremp, Ryan Potulny, Slava Trukhno, Liam Reddox, Colin McDonald, Guillaume Lefebvre, Tyler Spurgeon, Tim Sestito & Carl Corazzini

    And now that he's back from injury, I assume Gilbert Brule will push one down

  13. shep says:

    pj axelsson is a lw

  14. B.C.B. says:

    debakely: I don’t think I suggested replacing Cogs with Schremp but moving Cogs for a third line center and replacing Cogs with Gags and Gags with Cole on the second for this year (and latter on replacing Cole with Schremp, but it could be replaced Potulny or Brule or any number of other players).

    I just don’t have the same high opinion of Cogs (as others) and don’t think he fits into the long term plans. Trading Cogs now would allow that potential to traded for developed skill, and if Cogs fails to develop into what we hope trading him for picks/prospects latter.

  15. Oilmaniac says:

    I totally agree with LT,

    B.C.B Wrote,
    I rather see Cogs traded then Schremp (I know this will cause screaming by my fellow posters). I just don’t see him in our plans unless we are converting him to a defensive forward. Also Fisher already has proved he can put up 20 goals a year: so we would win there as well. (Come to think of it, we would have to add a vetern wing or another prospect to Cogs to get Fisher).

    Cogs has some good natural tools and almost potted 20 in his rookie campaign.. If you want a quick 20 goal scorer on the third than you got one at 3M less, even tho he still has to grow from young man into a tougher, gritter, battle worn man… and I think cogs is and will prove to be more valuable than a third line fix… I agree tho, the squeeze is on and cogs is looking vulnerable to trade with gagners halo burning bright ‘enough’…

    and until shremp proves something, he just isnt in the discussion…
    (post edited)

  16. Ribs says:

    I’d love to have Fisher come to the Oilers. Having him and Horcoff would be a real treat. If I’m Bryan Murray though, he’s probably one of the two guys I wouldn’t think of trading on that team.

    I also think that shipping out Cogliano at this point would be a mistake. He’s only going to get better and his work ethic pretty much guarantees it.

    We have to be patient this year I’m afraid. I know we’re all itching to get that 3rd line center and to fill in the missing pieces right away but we should probably take a look at our cards before trading them in.

  17. Scott says:

    We cannot trade Cogliano this year. Whenever you’re talking about winning in this league, you’re talking about an efficiency contest: who can spend the money the best? Cogliano, both this year and next, will probably provide tremendous value. This is my issue with Fisher. He’s a good player, but at full (or maybe more) cost. What we really need going forward are more players like Cogliano who are able to outperform. We have a few now, but not many and one of them is going to be paid full value (or maybe more) starting next season in Shawn Horcoff. Trading Cogliano for Fisher at this time probably doesn’t give us the best chance to win in the next two years.

  18. Dennis says:

    I keep thinking that Schremp’s the kind of piece you’d move at the deadline if there was something out there that might help you get out of the first round.

  19. PunjabiOil says:

    Brule with 2 goals tonight in his return.

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