I promised to update the EV numbers for Springfield forwards in 5 game intervals this season.
The first 5 games (plus an overview of the last few seasons) is contained here. If you’re too lazy to click through, the general idea is that I placed a .500 “line in the sand” for forwards at EVs. If an AHL player could score 30 points at evens in 60 games, he’d qualify.
Going back to 05-06, there were two AHL regulars who both played 50+ games and had an EV number above .500/game. Those players (the 06-07 versions of Kyle Brodziak and Robert Nilsson) became NHL regulars the following season, prompting me to see if we could possibly identify a starter for next season.
Make sense? Hope so.
Anyway, the kids Edmonton fans are really familiar with have never been able to make the grade using this tool. Here’s some numbers for famous prospects:
- Marc Pouliot: .323, .424, .420 in 3 AHL seasons.
- Alexei Mikhnov: .481 in 06-07.
- Rob Schremp: .362 and .431.
Brodziak’s climb (.363 to .559 season over season) is sort of the ideal I’m looking for in this so the Schremp totals are important to remember.
Okay, we’re looking for players who can score at .500/EVs in the AHL. Here’s the current list of Springfield forwards:
- Rob Schremp 8gp, 0-7-7 (.875)
- Ryan Potulny 10gp, 5-1-6 (.600)
- Slava Trukhno 10gp, 1-3-4 (.400)
- Liam Reddox 10gp, 1-3-4 (.400)
- Gilbert Brule 5gp, 2-0-2 (.400)
- Stephane Goulet 5gp, 1-1-2 (.400)
- Bryan Lerg 3gp, 1-0-1 (.333)
- Geoff Paukovich 3gp, 1-0-1 (.333)
- Colin McDonald 10gp, 2-1-3 (.300)
- Guillaume Lefebvre 9gp, 0-2-2 (.222)
- Tyler Spurgeon 10gp, 0-2-2 (.200)
- Tim Sestito 10gp, 2-0-2 (.200)
- Ryan O’Marra 6gp, 0-1-1 (.167)
Schremp is clearly making things happen and Potulny is having a wonderful start (also popping PP goals). Brule was hurt and now is back, he’s a guy to watch and Trukhno/Reddox are within reach and it’s early. Stephane Goulet remains an interesting player and Colin McDonald sinks like a stone the moment math enters the room.
Brodziak and Nilsson both emerged as NHL players the season after ripping it up in the minors. Rob Schremp and Ryan Potulny appear to be nice comps in this narrow view.