Franchise

This is Vincent Lecavalier as a Rimouski Oceanic about 12 years ago. Man he’s a rail here. He looks 10, although he was at least 16 in the photo.

He spent some of his time before juniors in Wilcox, SK playing for Notre Dame Hounds. Among his teammates was Brad Richards.

We found out today that TBay can’t pay Vincent his bonus, a cool $500k. If he follows in the tradition of Mario Lemieux, this might be the day Vincent Lecavalier started the process of becoming an NHL owner. The NHL is a well-oiled machine.

If they do trade him, I hope it isn’t to Edmonton. He’s a terrific player but the contract is an absolute killer and stretches through much of the rest of my lifetime.

It would mean that this 8-year build would need to climax in mid-flight (with Hemsky likely gone the other way, mind you) change the direction of the season, finds it way back through the heart of the Western Conference and bring the Northwest to its knees by spring.

Magic bullet indeed.

Further, it demands the Oilers contend in the next couple of seasons before paying the downside contracts of several players in their 30s making good dough. It would mean moving the cluster back in the other direction again (toward the aged from youth) and guarantee that the Edmonton Oilers endured the build without enjoying the long sustain.

Peak Value will have avoided Edmonton for an entire generation.

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93 Responses to "Franchise"

  1. Dennis says:

    There aren’t any talks of us acquiring this guy, are there?

    Then again, Katz was hot for Hossa so I guess we shouldn’t be too surprised if we get in on this.

    Just for shits and giggles, how would this trade look? Keeping in mind that 83 absolutely Cannot be involved.

    13 OR 89? Both? One of 37 or 77?

    In any case, I really don’t want any part of it but in thinking how hard they ran at Hossa, I’d be stunned if they weren’t taking the same route at VL.

  2. Dave says:

    I think the OIlers would be silly to not at least make the call.

    No 83, though, you’re right.

  3. Lord Bob says:

    I’ve seen “Edmonton” on lists of teams seven long in the Lecavalier sweepstakes, which probably amounts to PR-savvy Lowe saying “sure, we’d love to have Vinny” and then having a nap.

  4. HBomb says:

    It only makes sense if you can do it without losing your core (i.e. 83, 89, 10, 71, 77).

    Even then….11 years? Lecavalier’s good, but hot damn that’s a long time.

    Save the bullets for when the Kovalchuk auction happens. Better fit. The weakest position on the first line is LW, not C (although, if the Oilers landed Lecavalier, maybe Horcoff becomes Ryan Smyth and transitions over to LW, as he’s played there before).

  5. rickibear says:

    penner-horc-hemsky
    cogs-gagner-cole
    brule-brodziak-potulny
    Moreau-pouliot-pisani

    No to lecavalier

  6. Mr DeBakey says:

    Forget Hemsky
    A trade down methinks
    The extra few [very few] PPG is not worth the $$$ & assets.

    Try:
    Gagner for position
    Penner for contract
    Grebeshkov? [need Malik back]
    And a suspect/pick or two

  7. Kris says:

    I guess we’ll get confirmation from Coachpb (sp?) soon, but I think Lecavalier could be got without Hemsky going the other way. Frighteningly enough for Tampa, I bet a package centered around Cogs and Gilbert and a whack of prospects and picks would do it.

    Of course, I don’t think we’ll get the guy, but I bet if somebody does that they don’t send a player of Hemsky’s callibre -or whoever their best player is- the other way. It just seems to me that nobody get’s good return on these guys.

    So, Coach you need to get you work done so if Lec. moves, we can test it empirically.

  8. Coach pb9617 says:

    I wonder if Columbus will kick the tires?

  9. PunjabiOil says:

    Cogliano, Gilbert, Penner and 2009 first round pick for Lecavalier and Jussi Jokinen.

  10. Coach pb9617 says:

    So, Coach you need to get you work done so if Lec. moves, we can test it empirically.

    This is way more than I bargained for. It’s a work in progress, but it will be a few weeks.

  11. Kris says:

    Coach:

    The dog ate your spreadsheets?

  12. Coach pb9617 says:

    The dog ate your spreadsheets?

    The spreadsheets ate the dog. And then I thought SQL Server would be a good idea.

  13. quain says:

    The guy doesn’t fulfill enough of a need to be worth the dollar and prospect cost. I think we can find a good soft minute killer for cheaper. And, as I said yesterday, I really think that acquiring Lecav would necessitate a few other moves and I don’t trust Kevin Lowe to make any of them correctly.

    I don’t really want Kovalchuk either, but if you gave me a choice I’d take Kovie every day.

  14. Black Dog says:

    Tampa is broke.

    I’m thinking a whack of cheap kids and expiring contracts would get it done.

    They’re not going to want guys who make 4+ (Gilbert/Penner), or guys about to cash in (Grebs).

    Its building around Stamkos and whoever they draft this year plus the kids they get.

    I wouldn’t do the deal btw. He’s a nice player but that contract is a franchise killer.

  15. uni says:

    If you need a hand with any of that MSSQL stuff let me know =).

    And why not Access, it’s so much easier hahaha.

  16. Vic Ferrari says:

    Yeah, I really don’t see Vinny as being a fit either. Plus I’m not as big a fan of his game as most people.

    I don’t know how many people put stock in the value of territorial advantage at even strength. But right now the Oiler’s corsi+/- for the season is -126. Last season at this time they were -318. The back half of last season they were -207.

    So things are trending in the right direction in this regard. Even though it hasn’t felt like it at times. I was expecting a faster rate of improvement, but we have what we have. And there are a whack of Oiler players, guys getting a lot of ice time, that will all get a lot better yet.

    And the PP has looked decent and I’m sure that Roli will start stopping more pucks on the PK soon enough. The EVshooting% is a bit better than average and I think they can probably sustain that.

    I think that probably the wisest route to take is just to stay the course, as boring as that seems. Then maybe they can pick up a real difference maker as a UFA one of these summers. Though adding a quality veteran centre at the deadline would surely help their playoff chances.

    I doubt that this team will have much appeal until they start looking like a genuine ‘team on the rise’ in the eyes of the UFA players. So making the playoffs is important, methinks.

  17. godot10 says:

    Wait for the dispersal drafts from contraction!

    The cap is going down after next season. The Oilers actually have to be careful at this point about adding any big contracts.

    When you have Horcoff, Gagner, and Cogliano, I say NO to Lecavalier or Spezza. I’d rather develop Gagner and Cogliano.

    A solid mobile puck handling defense is the critical element of a contending team. Lowe has actually fixed the defense. Yep, there are other holes, but the fixing a defense is harder to fix than holes at forward.

    I’d rather have more good forwards than a few elite forwards. In a cap system, I think it is more sustainable. An average first line, with two 2nd lines. The strategy should be to neutralize or play the other teams top line even, and win by having a deeper roster.

    I think the quality of the second centre on a hockey team is more important to winning than the quality of the first centre, IF the first centre is adequate.

  18. Scott says:

    Lecavalier just doesn’t compare well with the other elite players in the league. He’s hugely high-event, but he’s never been a particularly good outscorer who takes on the best. Granted, he probably wouldn’t need to do that here with Horcoff already present, but paying a soft minutes center that much for that long would promise to be a disaster. Especially since they’ve been grooming Hemsky as a PvP for so long, and presumably you’d want him playing with Vinny if Vinny were here. The other problem is that it would almost necessitate Horcoff leaving because if he becomes a shut-down center without first unit PP time, it really isn’t at all justifiable to be paying him over five per.

  19. Bohologo says:

    If Lecavalier is sold, it will be at firesale prices. Why? His overly long and burdensome contract makes him a distressed asset, and TB is a distressed seller. In an uninviting economic environment, nobody will want his contract at anything more than pennies on the dollar. So leave Gagner, Cogliano and Gilbert in the locker room, and think prospects and picks.

  20. Oilman says:

    Hemsky’s contract must be one of the most attractive in the league right now. Why replace it with one of the most burdening – on a guy whose a fairly equivalent scorer to Ales at this point. That contract of Vinny’s should be a hindrance to a trade and reduce the value of any package TBay gets in return – shouldn’t it?

  21. slipper says:

    Tortorella played Lecavalier to death for a long time. This year Vinny is playing almost three minutes less a night at evens than he did last year. Which is huge, I think. Tampa also had terrible goaltending for forever, which drove down VL results, but this year that has changed too. Both the Oilers and Tampa have had pretty high even strength save percentage- around .930%.

    That said, VL is still just marginally outscoring this year. I think he has a higher skill set than Horcoff, but results wise… well, what’s the difference between +40/-35 and +60/-55. I doubt there’s any difference at all.

  22. Alice says:

    If they were thinking to unload him, why’d they hang the 11yr albatross contract on him? Surely it lessens his trade value. I think the notion that he winds up in an equity position like Mario does make some sense. But as LT said, this is the NHL, the bar is sometimes pretty low where sense is concerned.

  23. Oilman says:

    I wonder if that +5 would change much if Horcoff were in Tampa and VL was playing with Hemsky and Penner? Would either team swap 11 years for 4?

  24. Ribs says:

    Well, it’d be a lot of cap space eaten up but if you can manage, do it. Every contract is moveable so don’t worry about it too much.

    With no Hemsky in the deal and maybe Gagner leaving with some picks/youth it would be very tempting.

    LeCavalier is a legit top 10 guy in this league and they don’t come around often. San Jose made the deal for Thornton and they’ve been looking good ever since.

    The numbers game is the scary thing and it’s especially scary without knowing what the goalie situation will be in the next 3 years. I’m thinking you either have to move a D-man to afford a star goalie (if/when one’s available), or you play an average guy and rely on your defensive core that you already have (like Detroit).

    So I guess we could wait for guys to (maybe)develop, wait for another top ten guy with a friendlier contract to become available, get LeCavalier and deal with the consequences, or find a tall building and jump off.

    I’m getting tired of waiting.

  25. slipper says:

    I'm not really picking up on the tone of your post, Oilman. Are you arguing that Penner+Hemsky>>>St.Louis+Prospal?

    It'd be a hard case to make.

    St.Louis and Lecavalier have been joined at the hip for a long time. 500 minutes together and only 70 minutes apart this season.

  26. Oilman says:

    Just an open question Slipper – where the “I wonder” comes in? I guess the situations are fairly equivalent.

  27. St George says:

    Where did we find out they can’t pay him? I saw a story on Sportsnet they were supposed to pay him tomorrow, but the story also went on to say that Ryan Malone was in a similar situation last month and he was paid on time.

    Regardless, I am enjoying (in a morbid way) how quickly the new ownership seems to be imploding the team in TB. I have been really confused by almost every move they have made starting this summer, and apparently it isn’t going to stop.

  28. slipper says:

    There’s no argument that Lecavalier rates high offensively. I like lots of shot myself and he’s showed sustain in that department. As a complete package though, there’s no way he rates in the top ten. I can easily name ten better or equal players in the Western Conference alone. Why would I do this? Probably boredom.

    Zetterberg
    Datysuk
    Hossa
    Iginla
    Havlat
    Kane
    Kopitar
    Koivu
    Gaborik
    Sedin
    Sedin
    Sundin
    Nash
    Marleau
    Lidstrom
    Weber
    Phaneuf
    Visnovsky

  29. Dennis says:

    Two points:

    1: Once Vish Throttler breakfasts and shakes enough hands to land all the public money that Katz is looking for to build his new building, he’ll be well able to buy out VL’s pact sometime down the line.

    2: It’s nothing you’d bet on per se but who’s to say that future CBA language wouldn’t allow a team to space out the remainder of VL’s contract buyout-wise like say the Mets did with Bobby Bonilla?

  30. Cloned says:

    Just on a related note… Hemsky and MacT were interviewed today.

    http://oilers.nhl.tv/team/console.jsp?catid=4&id=30806

    MacT doesn't expect Hemsky back until after the ASB.

    Hemsky has started skating but has no timeline on his own return. He said he is still getting headaches and feeling dizzy after skating. Said he wants to take it cautiously, and feels sharp off the ice.

  31. Unleaded says:

    Vincent Lecavalier to Dallas for Sean Avery, 2nd '09, 2nd & 3rd in '10. Dallas gets better, solves a problem, but isn't giving up their most valuable draft picks, while TB loses salary, gets a gong show player for a gong show franchise, and enough draft picks that they won't have to pay for a while to almost make it a quality for quantity trade.

  32. Schitzo says:


    Havlat
    Koivu
    Gaborik
    Sedin
    Sedin

    say wha?

  33. Ribs says:

    Slopper, here’s my top ten if it helps.

    Crosby
    Ovechkin
    Malkin
    Iginla
    LeCavalier
    Thornton
    Kovalchuk
    Datsyuk
    Elias
    Getzlaf

    I think it’s pretty ridiculous to even consider either Sedin to be better players than Vinny. I know it’s been rough in Tampa for a bit now, but c’mon!

  34. Coach pb9617 says:

    Seller wins one! Seller wins one!

    Philadelphia traded:
    Peter Forsberg, Ron Hextall, Mike Ricci, Steve Ducheshe, Kerry Huffman, Chris Simon, Flyers’ 1st round picks in 1993 and 1994 Entry Draft; to Quebec for Eric Lindros.

  35. Oilman says:

    think Quebec would have done that deal without Huffman as part of the package?

  36. slipper says:

    @schitzo: If it hasn’t been said before, I’m looking at players who can routinely out-score and out chance their opposition, ecspecially in the hard match situations. Injury issues aside, both Gaborik and Havlat qualify in my opinion, and when healthy I’d be more than satisfied at matching them against Lecavalier.

    The Sedins are fantastic. Seriously, if you can’t recognize that then I don’t know what to say. They play the most ice-time amongst the forwards on their team, and consistently out-shoot and out score. Vinny Lecavalier can only lay claim to one of those things. Christ, in 06-07 they were +55/-34

  37. PunjabiOil says:

    Hemsky has started skating but has no timeline on his own return. He said he is still getting headaches and feeling dizzy after skating. Said he wants to take it cautiously, and feels sharp off the ice.

    I was just talking to PDO. He’s argued since he’s fine off the ice, the worse is over.

    So another 4 [critical] games that Hemsky will miss. It would be nice to get a split, and aim for 3 out of 4 points in the back to back. Beating Columbus and Phoenix at home is vital.

  38. Lord Bob says:

    I understand the Flyers weren’t interested until they heard Steve Duschene was available.

  39. Cloned says:

    PJO:

    We’re going to need Cole to consistently be a gamebreaking force on RW in the next few.

    On the plus side, it’d be nice having both him and Hemsky as legit offensive RWs when the latter finally gets healthy.

  40. Oilman says:

    I think the problem with the Sedins is that you have to keep referring to them as “they” – if they were any closer they’d only need three skates.

  41. HBomb says:

    Ribs: a glaring omission from your top ten.

    Zetterberg.

    If it’s me picking one forward and I can have anyone outside of Crosby or Ovechkin, it’s him.

  42. Ribs says:

    Playoff factor is a biggie with me.

    D. Sedin GP43 G5 A13 -8
    H. Sedin GP43 G10 A10 -9

    V. Lecavalier GP45 18G 15A E

    …Flop.

  43. Ribs says:

    HBomb, Zed would be #11 on the list.

  44. slipper says:

    You’re going to rate a guy and pay him ten million over 45 games. Cool.

    I think Barry Pederson is amongst the three most prolific goal scorer of all time.

  45. Oilman says:

    I think VL is in the same group as Nash, Heatly, Vanek, Getzlaf.

  46. Dennis says:

    We’re not dealing with knee or shoulder problems so the kid will be back when he feels like he Absolutely can come back. It might be in two weeks or it could be in two months. The only issues now are how much did it hurt him to play through the end of Nsh game and let’s hope the coaching staff never allows this again.

    Oh wait, they did the same thing with Nilsson.

  47. slipper says:

    If I had to draft a line-up for a game tomorrow I’d easily pick Zetterberg before Ovechkin, Malkin or Crosby. No question.

  48. slipper says:

    I think VL is in the same group as Nash, Heatly, Vanek, Getzlaf.

    I can buy into this. I think he’d excel playing against second teir opposition, but that contract is a non-starter. If he’s on your team he’s the man.

  49. Bank Shot says:

    “The Sedins are fantastic. Seriously, if you can’t recognize that then I don’t know what to say. They play the most ice-time amongst the forwards on their team, and consistently out-shoot and out score. Vinny Lecavalier can only lay claim to one of those things. Christ, in 06-07 they were +55/-34″

    Kesler has been taking all the big lines since 06-07.

    I think a duo of Lecavilier and Hemsky could put up better numbers if put in a similiar role.

  50. Ribs says:

    You’re going to rate a guy and pay him ten million over 45 games. Cool.

    Well, the 313 regular season points since the lockout helps as well (D.Sedin 274).

  51. slipper says:

    Well, the aim of the sport remains scoring more than your opponent.

    Since 2006-07:

    Vincent Lecavalier: +180/-191
    Henrik Sedin: +143/-103

  52. Oilman says:

    slipper – are you able to generate the numbers for the sedins with and without luongo in the lineup? Since 2006, VL has had some pretty piss poor goaltending behind him I suspect (with the exception of Smith for most of this season).

  53. slipper says:

    Kesler has been taking all the big lines since 06-07.

    Kesler played 547:48 at even strength in 2006-07.

    The Sedins both played over 500 minutes more than Kesler.

  54. slipper says:

    Did I mention that Lecavalier makes as much as two Sedins.

    @Oilman: I’ll see what I can drum up. Somewhere above I addressed the goaltender situation in TB. Yes, it has been below league average over the past few seasons. This season, atleast at even strength, Tampa Bay’s save percentage is well above league average. I believe it sits around .930% when VL is on the ice.

    His (aswell as They’s) Corsi numbers for this season and the past season are available on BTN.

  55. Oilman says:

    Did I mention that Lecavalier makes as much as two Sedins.

    I assume this changes next year.

  56. slipper says:

    Vancouver last season

    Tampa Bay last season

    Let’s keep it real and remember that my argument was “I can easily name ten better or equal players in the Western Conference alone.”

    Now if we want to discuss real elite difference makers we should check out the shooting data for Number 40.

  57. HBomb says:

    If anything, the Sedins/Kesler comparison shows that, even for teams with pretty damn good third line centers, power vs. power is the way coaches tend to go (the “checking” center sees the other team’s 2nd offensive line, generally the guys with two way deficiencies in their game).

    The exceptions are, as always, New Jersey and Anaheim.

  58. quain says:

    HBomb, Zed would be #11 on the list.

    Any list rating Zetterberg behind Lecavalier is either wrong or for fantasy pools, and even then I think you probably have +/- turned off.

  59. Ribs says:

    quain, you think maybe Vinny’s +/- might go up if he played for Detroit?

  60. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    HBomb said…
    If anything, the Sedins/Kesler comparison shows that, even for teams with pretty damn good third line centers, power vs. power is the way coaches tend to go (the “checking” center sees the other team’s 2nd offensive line, generally the guys with two way deficiencies in their game).

    Having Sundin in the lineup kind of changes that equation doesn’t it? Especially if Gillis gets Sundin another winger to play with.

  61. slipper says:

    I think Tampa Bay’s +/- would go up if they traded Lecavalier for Zetterberg;)

  62. Traktor says:

    Henrik has 20 points in 43 playoff games.

    His brother has 18.

    They choke in the playoffs just like Mats.

  63. quain says:

    Lecavalier’s +/- would absolutely go up, because teams would have to play against the real players like Datsyuk and Zetterberg who can take the heat and just completely obliterate their opponents.

    And that’s the problem, Vinny’s one good year was playing behind Brad Richards, getting the slow kids. He looked great doing it, but that’s a talent that isn’t worth $7.75M for the next decade.

    If we’re going to throw Gagner and Cogliano out the window for someone to stick on the second line I’d rather take Mikko Koivu.

  64. Traktor says:

    Lecavalier – Hemsky would arguably be one of the best C – RW combos in league.

    Horcoff – Pisani would arguably be one of the best shutdown combo’s in the league.

    What’s the problem?

    Penner – Lecavalier – Hemsky
    Vermette – Horcoff – Pisani
    Pouliot – Cogliano – Cole
    Moreau – Brodziak – Stortint/Brule

    Souray – Gilbert
    Grebs – Volcehnov
    Smid – Staios

    Roli

    Visnovsky to Ottawa for Volchenkov and Vermette

    Gagner, Nilsson, Plante, Schremp, Chorney (5 assets) to TB for Vinny.

  65. slipper says:

    Vic Ferrari tackled the Zetterberg v. Lecavalier debate long ago when the Vinny Lecav hype machine was at full throttle.

    Last year Zetterberg’s shot on goal differential was over 300+ playing over 60% of his minutes with Datysuk and Lidstom.

    This season he’s played less than 10% of his minutes with Datysuk. Zetterberg’s shot differential half way into the season is at +106. Vinny Lecavalier’s is -7. And it’s worth mentioning that Lecavalier doesn’t play with nopbodies Tampa.

    As for Traktor’s comments: no offence but what the hell does that mean, anyways? People echoed the same thing about Datysuk and Zetterberg… and then they won the Cup. I guess you choke until you win, right?

  66. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    “Vic Ferrari tackled the Zetterberg v. Lecavalier debate long ago when the Vinny Lecav hype machine was at full throttle.

    Last year Zetterberg’s shot on goal differential was over 300+ playing over 60% of his minutes with Datysuk and Lidstom.

    This season he’s played less than 10% of his minutes with Datysuk. Zetterberg’s shot differential half way into the season is at +106.”

    Now that’s what a first line centre looks like.

    How did Detroit get two?

  67. slipper says:

    How did Detroit get two?

    How did Ken Holland phrase it? Oh yeah, Detroit got “very lucky in with drafting players”.

  68. Traktor says:

    “I guess you choke until you win, right?”

    Basically.

    In Henrik’s last playoff run he had 4 points in 12 games.

    That’s choking.

  69. quain says:

    Let’s apply the normal Shawn Horcoff argument (“He’s the top-line center, so it’s his fault the team sucks”): Lecavalier-Propsal-St. Louis is a line that eats up over 25% of the team’s actual cap dollars.

    It’s also a line that, at even strength, cannot outscore who it plays against barring a bit of luck (like right now, where they’re running around with a ~.930SV% and 10% SH), and it’s definitely a line that can’t outshoot its opposition.

    It’s also a line that has currently reigned for the past two years and brought them Stamkos and probably Tavares.

    Which means that Vinny’s value needs to come from the powerplay where he’s producing less than any other Edmonton Oiler currently on a powerplay unit.

    Vinny has value has a soft minute outscorer, absolutely, but do we really want to invest $7.75M over a decade, even given that Katz can bury him in the minors or buy him out in five years? I think I’d rather have Erik Cole and someone to play on the third line.

  70. Cloned says:

    Traktor:

    I highly doubt Murray trades Volchenkov and Vermette for Visnovsky. He’s desperate for a puck moving D, but not that desperate.

  71. Traktor says:

    Cloned: I think you are probably right. Good foundation for a trade though.

    I think Vermette/Stoll are similar but Volchenkov is better than Matt Greene.

    DL was desperate to move Visnovsky though and had to do it before his no-trade kicked in. Murray is desperate for a puck mover like said. So I think some of the difference in value between Volchenkov and Greene is cut out.

  72. Cloned says:

    I remember at one time when LW was the strongest position on this team (we had 4 of them score 20+ goals or something like that one year).

    Could (should) we do the same with the RW by going after Martin St. Louis?

  73. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    slipper said…
    How did Detroit get two?

    How did Ken Holland phrase it? Oh yeah, Detroit got “very lucky in with drafting players”.

    Couldn’t we have just one?

    Please sir.

  74. Oilman says:

    slipper – pretty significant difference in the SP’s between VL and the sisters last season. Amounts to about 3GA per every 100 shots against. I assume that would amount to close to 20 goals over the course of 80 games?

  75. quain says:

    Normalizing Lecavalier to the same EVSV% as Henrik Sedin (.915) last season would’ve put Vinny at a +5.6 at ES against Henrik’s of +7.0. Of course, Lecavalier was benefiting from a a pretty substantial SH% (9.7%, which is probably not completely unrealistic, given his line and skill), but Henrik’s on ice SH% was only 7.9% which I think is a bit low.

    Regardless: Even if you normalize St. Louis and Lecavalier to Luongo-esque goaltending, and do not adjust their SH%, they still do less to win games than the Sedins, for a large amount of extra dollars.

    In fact, right now, the cap hits for St.Louis and Lecavalier are only $2M less than the cap hits for both Sedins and Luongo.

    I don’t understand why we accept the point totals of Lecav, playing in a balls out counter attacking style, but act like the SV% shouldn’t suffer. The Sedins play in a more defensive system, but they’re not supposed to benefit from not giving up odd-man rushes all game.

  76. Jonathan says:

    Lecavalier – Hemsky would arguably be one of the best C – RW combos in league.

    Horcoff – Pisani would arguably be one of the best shutdown combo’s in the league.

    This is my thinking too (or alternately, Lecavalier-Cole and Horcoff-Hemsky, HF riots be damned). Despite what some folks around here think, Lecavalier’s been taking the toughs for at least the past two seasons (although not doing spectacularly well in that assignment).

    There is no doubt in my mind that Lecavalier for Gagner/Gilbert or some such makes this team better, by a very, very substantial margin, right now.

    The real question is what Gagner’s going to be, when he’s going to be it, and how much money he’ll cost. Is it worth mortgaging the future (to some extent) for a 28-year old signed to an 11-year deal?

    It may be.

  77. Kris says:

    I agree that VL doesn’t have defensive chops, but some of the anti-Vinny arguments sound like the doubts about Souray’s +/- and his status in Montreal as a 3rd pairing guy.

    That is, it’s possible Vinny’s poor numbers are a product of his situation more than anything else. That might not be the case either, but I’m not yet convinced that a 40 goal guy in his prime couldn’t shine here playing center between Horcoff and Hemsky.

    It’s a tough call for sure, but I’m less than convinced that it wouldn’t be a great move.

  78. Sean says:

    I’m with Jonathan.

    How much ripple effect would a guy like Lecavalier have on the rest of the team? If you could get Lecavalier without loosing Hemsky or Gagner how much better would each of those players become? Keeping Horcoff for the hard minutes, Lecavalier would be an absolute “monster” (sorry for the Mcguire quote)

    If the Oilers have Lecavalier how many extra playoff games would they get each year. One could make the argument that you’d get 4 extra this year. At 2 million dollars a game, create a reserve fund. Plus jersey sales sky rocket and you have a star to campaign the new arena. Its a lot easier to promote the new building with the a guy like Lecavalier.

    Horrible be damned, I’m 27 – barely remember our last cup and 2006 was the funnest spring of our life. If I worked for the Oilers I’d make the move and have at least 6 years to think of an out plan. Hire 2 more Rick Olczyk’s and offer Cogliano, Gilbert, Schremp and a 1st.

    Flame away but I’m tired of having an average team and reading for the last couple weeks so is everyone else.

  79. CM says:

    You can all say what you want about Horcoff but I’d take Number 4 over Number 10 any day of the week

  80. Ribs says:

    I don’t understand why we accept the point totals of Lecav, playing in a balls out counter attacking style, but act like the SV% shouldn’t suffer. The Sedins play in a more defensive system, but they’re not supposed to benefit from not giving up odd-man rushes all game.

    That’s the problem when you get into advanced stats. There’s so many variables that impact each of them that it’s incredibly difficult to realistically compare them. LeCavalier, the Sedins, Zetterberg, they all play on very different hockey teams. Even Desjardins was conflicted enough to post a counter comment on Vic’s Z vs. Lecavalier blog post. Would LeCavalier’s statlines improve on a better defensive team? Would Zetterberg slow down his production on a worse one? Would the Sedins implode playing for Tampa Bay? Who knows. Too many variables to be certain.

    I guess it’s just a matter of opinion in most cases.

  81. slipper says:

    Even Desjardins was conflicted enough to post a counter comment on Vic’s Z vs. Lecavalier blog post.

    In which Dejardins concluded: “But that doesn’t change the fact that Lecavalier simply allows a lot more shots when he’s on the ice, and even if they’re not tough to handle, he’s going to allow a lot more goals than Zetterberg.”

  82. Ribs says:

    Maybe “counter” was the wrong choice of word there.

    The point was that he felt the need to look deeper knowing that the players were playing different games. He concludes that “(LeCavalier’s)going to allow a lot more goals than Zetterberg” but it’s only depending on the variables he chose to use.

  83. slipper says:

    I didn’t read it that way. I saw it as more a defense of Lecavalier in terms of there not being a strong relationship between the goalies save percentage and the player in front of them. So Vinny isn’t doing anytihng extra special bad for his goaltender to have an ..886 save percentage. I agree with this. Just like right now- he or Marc Savard or Shawn Horcoff aren’t doing anything spectacular to boost their goalie’s save percentage north of .930.

    And I don’t believe that you can’t acocunt for the variables. We can account for ice-time, opposition, linemates, and good and bad fortune. We just can.

    Shots attmepted and allowed are in the players domain. Vinny allows as much as he gives in his particular situation. I think he’d be spectacular in Getzlaf’s role in Anaheim. I’m not devaluing his ability with his hands and stick, but hockey is more than that, and VL has failings beyond the skill areas that a player like Thornton and Zetterberg do not.

  84. Master Lok says:

    How exactly does Lecavalier’s contract break down?

    That’s the issue for me. I agree with the others that lecavalier-Hemsky plus horcoff-pisani makes it extremely tempting.

    But then there’s the contract… 11 years at how much? How much would Vinnie be paid at 38?

  85. Sean says:

    Master Lok:

    http://www.nhlnumbers.com/overview.php?team=TBL&season=0809&expand=y

    It gets very easy to buy out at the end. Cap hit is the bigger concern.

    Now if someone could provide me a good reference for FO% ;)

  86. Bank Shot says:

    You can all say what you want about Horcoff but I’d take Number 4 over Number 10 any day of the week

    Lecavalier is obviously better. Maybe he’s not the best player in the league, but he’s easily in Hemsky territory.

    Vinny is used as a reason for why the Lightning suck, but Horcoff down the 06-07 stretch especially was given a pass for his stats, because the team sucked.

    I think interpretation of what exactly the stats are saying is skewed by player opinion in some cases.

  87. CM says:

    “but he’s easily in Hemsky territory.”

    I don’t think Hemsky is anywhere near the player Lecavalier is…I don’t think Hemsky will ever score 50 goals in a season let alone have back to back 40 goal campains or 8 straight seasons of 20 or more goals…

    As for horcoff he only had 103 goals before his 30th birthday Lecavalier has more than that in the past 3 seasons…I realize that Horcoff plays good D but he will never nor hemsky will ever be the type of player that Lecavalier is…Only thing about Hemsky is that is contract is very favorable…but if Horcoff is part of the package going the other way Then I would do this deal in a heart beat…Lecavalier’s extra 20 goals a year for the next 5 years would make the deal worth it…

  88. Jonathan says:

    If you need to pick between having Hemsky or Lecavalier on your team (especially! at their current salaries), take Hemsky each and every time.

    Hemsky’s been a better offensive player on the powerplay for years (incidentally, Lecavalier’s miserable with the extra man right now, down in Erik Cole territory and well back of Horcoff/Cogliano). Hemsky plays a better defensive game, and his PTS/60 compares well to Lecavalier, although he gets far less ice-time.

    The only thing that Lecavalier has on Hemsky is his size, and a marginal lead in EV points production. Hemsky’s a better PP player, and consistently a better all-round EV player (marginally inferior EV scorer).

    It isn’t even a fair comparison. Hemsky, every day of the week, and especially at less than half the money.

  89. speeds says:

    I guess I’m still under the delusion that EDM can land high quality UFA’s, but how are they not better off to throw a bunch of money at Hossa (I know, he’s already passed on the Oilers once) and keep any assets they’d have to include to land Lecavalier.

  90. slipper says:

    How is twenty extra goals for worth 8 million a season and an 11 year term when they come with the same ammount of goals against.

    It baffles me when people act as if there is only one net one the ice.

    Lecavalier is a good player, therefore it is worth the debate.

    Lecavalier is a better goal scorer than Hemsky.

    Hemsky is a better hockey player than Lecavalier.

  91. slipper says:

    I’m with Speeds. Throw $$$ at a UFA and you get to negotiate a more sensible term, keep the assets, and manage your roster form a position of strength.

  92. Sean says:

    I’m with Speeds. Throw $$$ at a UFA and you get to negotiate a more sensible term, keep the assets, and manage your roster form a position of strength.

    So sign Nylander and Kariya and negotiate from a position of strength? Or get Gomez or Briere at 8 million over 8 years? Players of Lecavaliers ilk dont just become available. Pronger, Thornton and Heatley are the only players in the last while that I can think of … Lecavalier at 7.7 should cover the bet for 7 years and like I mentioned before 7 years is a lot of time to plan for an out. Hemsky/Gagner would be non-starters in any trade talks.

  93. Jonathan says:

    Lecavalier is a better goal scorer than Hemsky. Hemsky is a better hockey player than Lecavalier.

    Amen.

    Throw $$$ at a UFA and you get to negotiate a more sensible term, keep the assets, and manage your roster form a position of strength.

    I can’t think of many reasonable contracts handed out to Lecavalier-lite players in the last five years (Sykora, I don’t know who else).

    Guys get paid for offense.

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