Reasonable at the AS Break (Goal)

Back in August when I posted the “reasonable expectations” items for each player, the projection for goals scored and against over the entire season was 248-242.

Projected over 46 games, that would work out to 139-136. The actual number is 132-138, which would be in the range. My projection was a little aggressive in that it was +3 and the Oilers currently sit at -6, but there’s been so much sway between performances I’m not going to spend much time looking for the reasons. I’ll throw out luck, empty net goals, the PK and the pure chaos that was playing men out of position. After that, I’m open to suggestions.

Garon P: 29gp, 2.75 .915 A: 15gp, 3.17 .895

His handling this season is a mystery. I have a friend who goes crazy every time a French guy gets the boot by the Oilers, as he’s convinced there’s something to it. We heard it was Pete Peeters and then Garon flushed that idea so we’re back to do (in do-re-me) on that one. There are two absolute truths: his numbers were subpar compared to Roloson’s and he didn’t get what anyone could consider a legit chance to win his job back. People play favorites all the time, I think our collective surprise in this scenario comes from a belief that MacT is more fair minded (performance based forward thinker) than most coaches in the NHL. Garon’s handling tells us they never did believe in him.

Roloson P: 11gp, 3.20 .899 A:29gp, 2.73 .913

The numbers I projected for Garon (above) were delivered by Methuselah. In many ways it’s a terrific story (old guy kicks butt in walk year) but in other ways (what if he gets hurt? He’ll be 40 later this year) it’s a big concern. My own opinion is once you reach the Johnny Bower years there’s no predicting performance or decline as the man has simply outrun the Daniel Bouchard curve. Roloson has not been injury prone as an Oiler (the one major injury came on a play that would have injured most goalies) and would seem to be as safe a bet as the next guy. It would behoove the Oilers to get him some rest in the second half (he projects to 52 games this season and remember Garon was here for the first half).

Deslauriers P: 6gp, 3.50 .887 A: 6gp, 2.73 .915

He’s been much better than expected going by the numbers but the major consideration here is sample size. He’s being used about as much as expected, but will probably start 10 games in the second half. The Oilers could lose the second season should Deslauriers perform poorly in these games.

Next up: Fringe players, callups and potential callups.

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21 Responses to "Reasonable at the AS Break (Goal)"

  1. D says:

    Roloson may be old, but his performance this year deserves him the chance to see if he can take this team to, and through, the playoffs.

  2. Schitzo says:

    Would not have guessed it would shake out this way. Thank the lord that the front office didn’t bite on an extension for Garon over the summer.

  3. boopronger says:

    The thing i dont understand is that it took Garon 60+ games last year to win the starting goaltender job and it took him less then 10 to lose it this year.

  4. knighttown says:

    I’ve been waiting for an opportunity to rant about the following topic for a little while and this line gives me my opening.

    “It would behoove the Oilers to get him some rest in the second half (he projects to 52 games this season and remember Garon was here for the first half).”

    I agree completely but when in tarnation do the Oilers get a soft game or two in this bloody conference. Dave Hodge had a bit on “The Reporters” last week which was talking about the balance of power disparity between the East and the West. I should have copied down the exact numbers but if I recall, the Western Conference is 95-55 vs. the East this year. Add to that, the beasts of the West (Det, Cal, SJ) are 19-2 vs. all the East and the best of the East are around .500 vs. all of the West. You could argue that no team in the East would be a shoe-in for a playoff spot in the West and St. Louis, the worst team in our conference went into Boston last week and beat the best they have to offer.

    Oilers have three types of games:
    1. Versus the heavyweights (SJ, Cal, Detroit, Chicago). These are teams we’ve been OK against historically so with good goaltending we have a chance. Play the starter.
    2. Versus the contenders. There are so many; the entire Northwest plus Phoenix, Nashville, Columbus, Dallas and Anaheim. HAVE to play your number 1.
    3. Versus the softies. Rarely, we get to play LA or St. Louis or anyone in the east but these are the games that are viewed as “must-wins” and we all know how tough a loss against Ottawa at home can be.

    So when do you sit Roloson?

    Part 2 of this rant is that you’ve got the same shitty teams drafting in the Top 7 every year. In the past 11 drafts including this next one (most likely) here are the number of times teams have drafted in the Top 7.

    7- Columbus, Tampa
    6- NYI, Atlanta
    5- Pittsburgh
    4- Florida, Nashville, Washington
    3- St. Louis, Carolina

    So even though those teams in the Southeast play against each other every night they still manage to finish in the basement every year. They get every advantage possible by playing in such a soft division (inflated records, fewer injuries, less fatigue) but then the league gives them the #3 seed even though they have a worse record then 4 and 5 almost every year.

    Then at the end of the year, the four teams that didn’t make the playoffs (and it is 4 teams nearly every year) go ahead and draft in the Top 7 a combined 24 times. As a comparison, the Northwest has drafted in the Top 7 five times in 11 years and 3 of those were Minnesota’s early years.

    So year after year the games most exciting new players find themselves in some God-awful market that couldn’t care less that they are there while the Canadian (and strong American) teams have to find a diamond in the rough or another role player.

    Southeast Top 5′s- Lecavalier, Stamkos, Tavares**, Bogosian, Kovalchuk, Heatley, Lehtonen, Staal, Horton, Bouwmeester, Ovechkin, Jack Johnson, Backstrom, Alzner.

    Northwest Top 5′s- um…Sedin (whichever one they didn’t trade for) and Gaborik.

    end rant

    Sorry LT, but like the Yanks signing Sabbathia, Texeira and AJ Burnett, I don’t agree with entire generations in certain cities getting the token 1 All-Star game slot while other teams get lavished with talent and don’t even try to create a winning atmosphere. I think it’s time to:

    a)redo the entry draft to some sort of rolling system where even “good” teams get the chance for a Top 5 draft pick every 6 years. I’d split it into tiers (1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30) and you know what tier you are in every year into perpetuity. Tier A in 2009, Tier F in 2010 and so on. Then do a lottery inside each Tier.

    b) have another look at contraction or relocation. I understand why the NHL wants to expand and grow the game but the comment that because I already like hockey I can’t get a team (in Halifax for me, or K-W or Hamilton or Winnipeg) is just wrong. In effect, Bettman and the Board are saying, “that sucka Knighttown keeps buying Center Ice and jerseys and stuff so we can ignore him. Let’s go after Joe Nascar in Birmingham, Alabam! He ain’t buying nothing NHL”.

  5. honkey says:

    I bring an update from SEL, Omark had 2 goals tonight and now have 17 for the season. With 26 helpers he has 43p(44 games) and is 2 points behind current leader.
    This is great news from an Oilers perspective.

    But I’ve been thinking of what happends if he doesn’t sign with Oilers. He is turning 22 years old, does that mean he become a FA like Fabian Brunnström?
    I mean if Brunnström could get 2.25M a year then Omark could end up around that number too. Can Oilers handle such a cap hit.

    Maybe it doesn’t work this way at all, so someone that knows the CBA better then me can clarify this matter.

  6. Schitzo says:

    If you sign your first deal at age 22-23 it’s still subject to the entry-level rules (so $875,000 + bonuses). The contract would be for 2 years instead of the normal 3.

    I’m assuming the oilers tendered him an offer over the summer, which would give them until June 2009 to either reach a deal or lose his rights.

  7. Schitzo says:

    That may not have answered your question, by the way. In theory, yes they could load up Omark’s deal with bonuses that would greatly increase his cap hit. I believe the highest you can get is somewhere around 4.0 million (what Kane and Malkin got).

    The good news however is that you can exceed the cap by those bonus amounts (to a max of 10% over the cap). If he doesn’t hit his bonus targets, there’s no consequences. If he DOES hit enough to put you over the cap, you pay for it the next year.

    But considering that the hype on Omark is tremendously lower than Brunstrum, I can’t see him getting more than any other prospect drafted outside the first round (600-700k).

  8. bookie says:

    Lets face it, clearly the management had some real doubts about Garon. They see the guy day in day out so maybe they have some insights we don’t. I work with some people that look pretty awesome to clients, but I can see that they are a train wreck because everything behind the scenes is on unstable grounds (including their mental state). You know that it is going to end up as a dramatic quagmire at some point I think that is how the Oilers saw Garon.

  9. Asiaoil says:

    knighttown – the Oilers schedule and Roloson’s age was the reason for having a strong tandem in the first place. We need two decent vets since we don’t have a top 10 #1 guy to do most of the heavy lifting. Given our precarious hold on a playoff spot – gifting JDD an NHL spot makes little sense, throwing Garon away makes little sense, burying Sabourin in the AHL makes little sense, pinning all you hopes on a 40 year old makes little sense. But of course when did this Oiler mgmt team ever have a clue about drafting, developing and managing tenders. They’ve made one decent call in 10 years – trading for Roloson – and did that so late that they almost blew the only decent result the team has had in a decade. The team is brilliant handling dman – and complete bozo’s with the goalies.

  10. knighttown says:

    Yep Asia, you’ve been wondering about their death grip on JDD since forever and it’s clear that the goalie market is so saturated that JDD has little or no value. He’d clear waivers in no time and if not, who gives a rat’s ass.

    If wishes were horses and all, but if JDD starts the year in the AHL (or lost on waivers) Garon gets a longer leash and who knows. What I do know is there were some points lost when the first few injuries came because we didn’t have the roster spot to have someone in the press box and that is unforgivable.

  11. Asiaoil says:

    knightown – my theory is that CGY has made it known that they might take him – whether that’s bluff (probably) or real is unknown but works out fine for CGY either way. But we shouldn’t care so much with a mediocre and very replaceable asset.

  12. Lowetide says:

    My theory on JDD has always been that the French guru guy (I don’t know what team he’s employed by but he’s pretty famous) must believe he’s a goalie that could be rescued.

    That would be my guess, the team Pelletier (or whatever his name is) works for.

  13. Bruce says:

    Francois Allaire – Anaheim.

  14. Lowetide says:

    lol. Bruce: thanks. Man, you can’t get more anglo than thinking Pelletier is close to Allaire.

  15. Asiaoil says:

    …but Anaheim has no need while CGY is even worse at developing goalies than us and has been looking for a young guy for years. CGY also has a workhorse in Kipper to lean on for a season if needed to keep a guy picked off waivers on the roster.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Asia: Oh yeah, makes sense. The Flames have spent some pretty high picks on G too now that I think about it.

  17. Bruce says:

    Of course there is a direct historical connection involving Calgary not developing a young goalie and trading him to Anaheim, where Allaire is credited for developing him into a Conn Smythe winner and Stanley Cup champion.

    “Him” of course being Jean-Sebastien Giguere. One of many Calgary “oopsies” over the years.

  18. bookie says:

    Wow, is JDD starting to become the Robbie Schremp of Goaltending in this blog?

  19. Asiaoil says:

    LT – neither Keetley or Irving are anyitng to get excited about and Irving in particular is years away – JDD actually makes some sense for those guys as a shot in the dark.

  20. Coach pb9617 says:

    b) have another look at contraction or relocation.

    THe market will force relocation soon. I disagree completely with Mirtle — I think there are at least a half-dozen viable markets, not just one.

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