Stars at Oilers, G37/08-09

This is Liam Reddox. He’s top of mind for Oilers fans currently because MacT chose him to replace Ales Hemsky on the top line when the “franchise” was unable to play in the bundle of games around the holiday season.

I’m not terribly surprised that the “saw him good” crowd is up in arms. Reddox looks like Opie and tonight he’ll be the slightest fellow in every corner of the rink (save the zebra’s). He looks 12. He is not the best LW on the team, not the obvious (veteran) option for the top line.

I am surprised at the math people in regard to Reddox. His arrows have been pointing in the right direction for over a year now (AHL last season and this, plus the NHL games this year) and on a team coached by a guy who constantly states “it’s also what you leave” Reddox moving up the depth chart cannot be a surprise.

So let’s run some math today and look at his resume. Why? Because if Liam Reddox is ahead of Rob Schremp now (and he is) then he’s going to be ahead of him two years from now. I think it’s time we started talking about Liam Reddox being the payoff in the 2004 Entry Draft.

In 2007-08, Reddox led the Falcons in EV points-per-game (.490, 11-14-25 in 51gp) and his +10 lapped the field among Springfield forwards who played in 35 or more games:

  1. Liam Reddox +10
  2. Stephane Goulet -3 (in half a season)
  3. Jonas Almtorp -5 (in half a season)
  4. Troy Bodie -7
  5. Marc Pouliot -11
  6. JF Jacques -13 (in half a season)
  7. Ben Simon
  8. Rob Schremp -15
  9. Slava Trukhno -16
  10. Colin McDonald -21
  11. Tim Sestito -25

In the summer I suggested Reddox was in a very good position to spend some time with the big club based on the summer moves, injuries to Jacques and others, plus his standing in the organization (he’d already moved past a few first rounders).

Come the fall and he’s in Springfield, scoring on the PP & PK and generally looking like a guy who might get the call again. It was not obvious he would be the first callup (item here) but they were looking for PK help (leaving Schremp out in the cold) and Gilbert Brule’s waiver eligibility questions (and the fact the organization wanted him to get his feet wet on the farm) meant Liam Reddox was the callup.

His TOI was predictable early on (first 3 games averaging 14.5 minutes and then dwindling) and on December 7th (when placing him at #6 on the prospect list) I wrote “he’s a gritty player with an edge, but he’s also 5-10, 180 (Oilers site). When he goes into those traffic areas or is working for possession along the boards, Reddox is undersized and probably not the strongest man in the scrum. He has some good hands but his EV/60 (0.83) and the number of chances he’s getting speak to his dwindling ice time and his Corsi (-19.8, 3rd worst among forwards who’ve played 9 games or more and going the wrong way fast) suggests a trip to the farm to reload on confidence might be a plan.” The plane tickets were never ordered, Reddox is still in Edmonton and moving up the depth chart.

A big part of the appeal for me in doing this blog is the comments section. As a group, we sort of reach a conclusion on things and at least in my mind it becomes the prevailing wisdom. I seldom find myself out of touch with the things stated in the comments section of this blog, or MC’s or what I understand of IOF’s comments section. It’s like a giant think tank. However, I did find myself running out of sync with some of the comments in the Reddox entry. Here are a few (without the names, that isn’t the point):

  • Kid’s got bottom-sixer written all over him, and given our lack of development in that area the last couple years, I’m okay with that.
  • Reddox is an interesting player to gauge in that he’s completely rebuilt his game from junior hockey.
  • Undersized grinders aren’t in huge demand around the league.
  • Reddox – big yawn – I’m sure he’s a good kid but guys like him a dime a dozen in the AHL. But I’m sure that coaching genius Buchburger loves him.
  • Ideally, I’d like to see him fill that Curtis Glencross role.
  • Well, it took 21 posts, but someone finally tried to plug Reddox into the GlenX role. He has neither the size nor the skating for that.
  • I like Liam Reddox as a player, but he’s a difficult prospect to get excited about.
  • He may be a third-liner someday, or he may end up as a tweener, and if I had to bet, I’d go with the latter.
  • Reddox hasn’t really brought a physical game. He’s more of the Pisani type, which is great and all because we’re short a Pisani.

The reason I feel we’re missing the mark is that we don’t know enough about him yet to say with authority what he can and cannot do and because of it we’re in danger of being completely wrong about his progression curve. Once a player (in this case Reddox) has the light bulb over his head go on (which it clearly did a year ago in Springfield) and begins to make sweeping advances in areas that had been weaknesses, then it is best to stand back and watch as opposed to making sweeping statements. I think we’ve missed the boat a little here, and that’s pretty much all of us.

Enter Jonathan. Buddy writes for Oilers Nation (a fine group of people I’ve badly let down) but some of his best work gets lost because of the sheer number of people who post there. An example is the watershed post that sits at Copper & Blue currently. In that post Jonathan identifies what I like to call the future Pisani’s, the guys who are playing the best of the other team, who are staying above the fray +/- and are delivering points too.

No one I know suggested Pisani would be Pisani when he entered pro, no one I know even suggested Pisani was Pisani when he arrived in the NHL. We began to talk about Pisani being Pisani when the Oilers sent away Daniel Cleary because Fernando ate his lunch and now we hold Pisani close as one of the things that we can count on as being a positive.

Had Jonathan posted this information in 2001 or 2002 on the Oilers AHL team I suspect we’d have been following Pisani more closely and that he would have been showing up on various top 20 lists (and for the record he was not).

So, Jonathan’s top 5 forwards in terms of opposition vaunt (Sestito, Reddox, Spurgeon, McDonald, Brule) require a closer look, and perhaps a bump in the estimation of the collective based on the Copper & Blue math.

Reddox has seen his Corsi improve (-12.4) and as he settles in against major league pitching his EV/60 point production (1.38) improves to the point where he can no longer (stolen from baseball’s Mendoza line) see the “Stortini” line. Plus a pretty smart guy looked at his roster and decided that when considering what you do and what you leave that Liam Reddox was the best available option (all things considered).

That is as telling in its own way as Jonathan’s number. We’d do well to remember it and perhaps be less surprised the next time Liam Reddox moves up the depth chart.

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184 Responses to "Stars at Oilers, G37/08-09"

  1. quain says:

    I could not have said it any better than the above poster did.

  2. Lowetide says:

    quain: You’re the first post, buddy. :-)

  3. quain says:

    That’s not fair! The joke doesn’t work anymore! You can’t really delete comments, it throws me off my game!

    Uh, hasty player analysis: I like Reddox, for all the complaints about this team having no try this guy is basically an undersized Ryan Smyth out there… whether being an undersized Ryan Smyth is a valid player archetype in the NHL, we’ll see, but the compete is great.

  4. Lowetide says:

    quain: I didn’t delete the post, hunter did. I think we need to realize that Reddox is 22. When Fernando was 22 he played for Providence.

    I’m in no way suggesting Reddox is going to be as good an NHL player as Pisani, but of all the prospects in Springfield this season he’s the one playing on the 1line.

    The Oilers could call up Schremp or Brule or Potulny and they choose Reddox. Why is that?

    Because at 22 he doesn’t do the things that other young players who aren’t established NHLers do, or at least he does them less often.

    I think we can reasonably suggest that should things move forward as they are now for Reddox he is going to have a superior career when compared to Schremp.

  5. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    Isn’t it an indictment of the Oilers system depth that the best they can throw out there under the circumstances is Reddox?

  6. DeBakey says:

    In the Pre-season, the Florida game, both Reddox & Schremp played.
    Schremp got an assist on a damn nice pass.
    But the rest of the game, I saw Reddox way better. He made plays all over the ice.
    Schremp mostly lost races for the puck.

    To stay
    Reddox is going to have to contribute offense.
    Plain & simple.
    There'll always be some guy 25lbs heavier looking to take his utility job away

  7. Lowetide says:

    I think his offense may be enough. The worry imo is health, but I checked back a little and he seems to have been fairly healthy all down the line.

    I’d like to know a little about how he was coached in junor because it seems to me he had some quality instruction. Is there a new Roger Neilson in the OHL?

  8. Coach pb9617 says:

    LT: I’ve decided to take on the task of compiling trade return data. Would you and your groupies mind taking a look at the category breakdowns I’ve come up with as well as the tracking data I’m going to use and offer up a critique and/or suggest changes?

  9. Lowetide says:

    Coach: Oh yes. I think we’re ready to rip it up!!! :-)

  10. HBomb says:

    Ok, so Reddox appears to have the make-up as a bottom six NHLer.

    As such – play him in the bottom six. Throw him with Moreau and one of Brodziak or Brule (at least until someone gets healthy) and move Cogliano up with 27-10 for the time being until Hemsky is healthy.

    Simply plugging guys into the spot vacated by an injured player does not work. You end up with no first line, two second lines, and two fourth lines.

  11. Coach pb9617 says:

    Here’s the second pass at an asset ranking system. I offer it up for sacrifice and know that it will not end as it began:

    15. Hall of fame player – all star season
    14. All star
    13. Hall of fame player – downslope
    12. 1st line player
    11. Top six player
    10. Thoroughbred prospect
    9. Bottom six regular
    8. #1 draft pick
    7. Highly regarded prospect
    6. Marginal NHL/AHL player
    5. #2 draft pick
    4. Marginal prospect
    3. #3 draft pick
    2. Late round pick
    1. Career Minor leaguer

  12. Coach pb9617 says:

    I figured that I might as well compile the way the trade turns out as well, so I’m going to use the five year window you suggested.

    Date
    Team
    GM
    Asset
    Asset Rating
    5 year rating

    Team
    GM
    Asset
    Asset Rating
    5 year rating

    I don’t know if there is any point into creating an “asset total” for the trade because the 15-1 rankings aren’t really linear, though we’re tracking that way. If someone comes up with a nifty way to do an asset total, or something similar, let me know.

    Also, who would be a good target to host the stuff I compile?

  13. oilerdago says:

    LT – great stuff again on Reddox. No doubt the kid has the work ethic that makes him likeable and he should be given very high marks for re-making his game.

    Whether his first line minutes right now can be justified or not, we should not diminish that he’s done more with his ability than many of us would have expected given where he was 2 short years ago (and given his draft pedigree).

    What the Oilers are starting to remind me of (draft wise) is the NY Giants of the 1980′s. Their GM (George Young) always got credit for drafting great LB’s (Taylor, Banks) but where he really made his mark was in the middle to late rounds, after the superstars were gone.

    If anything, the Oilers drafting can be given a lot of credit for finding guys middle rounds who’ve been able to have some impact. If they can score more hits at the top end (and recently they gave with Cogs, Gagner and perhaps even Eberle) this could be a better team.

  14. Traktor says:

    A wise man once said “real top 6 forwards
    don’t spend time in the AHL.”

    I guess Reddox is the exception.

    “The Oilers could call up Schremp or Brule or Potulny and they choose Reddox. Why is that?”

    Because Craig MacTavish is the coach and unorthodox decisions are frequently made by him. None of which promote success.

  15. Jonathan says:

    Thanks for the nice words, LT. I’m working on an update to that first set of numbers, one which will differentiate between GF and GA, and have four categories of opposition as opposed to three.

    RE: Reddox’s coaching – he was coached in his first season by Rick Allain (who’s CV isn’t terribly encouraging) and by Dick Todd for the two seasons after that. Todd put up incredible winning percentages in Peterborough before joining the Rangers as an assistant – he coached under Keenan, Campbell and Muckler, and was there for the Stanley Cup Win. He retired in 1998, then came back and coached the Petes for two seasons (2004-06; 81-37-9) before retiring again.

    Given Todd’s excellent junior numbers, I’m rather surprised he was never offered an NHL head coaching position.

  16. dawgbone says:

    HBomb, that whole line essentially was playing 3rd EV minutes, and when you factor in total icetime, Reddox was well into the bottom 6.

    It’s a mountain out of a molehill to be frank.

  17. Lowetide says:

    Coach: Looks good. Just so you know (and it's your project) but Bill James put a value on each of the 5 seasons, like this:

    18-MVP
    17-Strong MVP candidate
    16-Quality NHL regular
    15-Quality NHL regular player less than 70 games
    14-Above average NHLer
    13-Above average NHLer w/less 70 games
    12-NHL regular
    11-NHL regular <70 games
    10-Replacement level NHLer
    9-Quality prospect
    8-Fringe NHL players
    7-AHL regular
    6-Callup
    5-Mid level prospect
    4-Marginal pro prospect
    3-Unknown quality

    And then he'd give value to each season. For instance, the Ryan Smyth trade might be:

    07-08: 15
    08-09: 13

    And do it for 5 seasons. That's the way Bill James did it.

  18. Jonathan says:

    Apparently Todd is the winningnest coach in OGL history – 500 wins in only 813 games coached, along with two OHL Titles and a gold medal as the coach of the 1991 World Junior Team.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Coach: Plus he’d have a roster tax. Smyth’s two-season total (28) would be compared to the return.

    O’Marra: 4 (marginal pro prospect)
    Plante: 9 (quality prospect)

    but both of them would have a “tax” which we’ll say is a 5. Meaning O’Marra is worthless at this point (about right) and that we apply 4 Plante points to the Smyth total (28 points for two seasons, minus the roster tax of 10 which makes 18).

    Before Nilsson, it’s 18-4 for the Islanders.

    Now Nilsson

    07-08: 12
    08-09: 10

    That’s 22 minus 10 for roster tax so a total of 12.

    18-16 for Smyth and the Islanders is the final tally in this example which means Lowe didn’t get close to value. Islanders should have overpaid (and appeared to, I liked the trade at the time) but it hasn’t worked out two seasons into the deal.

    Having said that, Plante could pay off before the 5-year window closes and Nilsson could be somewhat undervalued my the math I’ve used here.

    Anyway, that’s Bill James version.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Jonathan: Interesting. The Petes have developed players and coaches going past Rogert Neilson and into the 50s when they were a Habs outpost (I think that’s right).

    Dick Todd. Strange name, but he must have been a terrific coach.

  21. Lowetide says:

    HBomb & dawgbone: I deliberately avoided "3line" or "4line" references whenever possible because imo this clouds the issue.

    Is a healthy Pisani a 3rd line RW when he plays more minutes at EVs than any RW but Hemsky? As dawgbone suggested with Horcoff running all over the special teams that line won't be the strongest EV rep anyway.

  22. PDO says:

    Isn’t it an indictment of the Oilers system depth that the best they can throw out there under the circumstances is Reddox?

    Our depth is currently called the “kid line” and was the reason management felt they could move Torres and Stoll.

    Whether they did that too early or not, is another story.

  23. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    Lowetide said…
    HBomb & dawgbone: I deliberately avoided "3line" or "4line" references whenever possible because imo this clouds the issue.

    Is a healthy Pisani a 3rd line RW when he plays more minutes at EVs than any RW but Hemsky? As dawgbone suggested with Horcoff running all over the special teams that line won't be the strongest EV rep anyway."

    If ESTOI is the determining factor, then the Oiler's 1st line is Gagner-Nilsson-Cole who have combined for 37 points this season.

  24. Asiaoil says:

    All Liam Reddox playing on the top line tells me is how f***ed up this team’s coaching is. Like he deserves the precious top line minutes that MacT doles out like fine cognac to only the deserving? Bet Cole and Nilsson feel great about a nobody from the AHL getting this kind of love from MacT. With this crap going on people are wondering why the team isn’t bothering to block shots? Why bother taking one to the nads when coach will just bring up some grateful schmuck from the minors to fill a skill position. Sorry to be so negative – but MacT has been giving the finger to a large number of his players and every fan with half a clue all year and I’m tired of it.

  25. Coach pb9617 says:

    And do it for 5 seasons. That’s the way Bill James did it.

    Alright, I can do that. Comb through historical returns to figure out expected returns, and then go through and figure out value of each trade.

    18-16 for Smyth and the Islanders is the final tally in this example which means Lowe didn’t get close to value.

    But my initial hypothesis is that he did get expected value out of the trade.

  26. Oilerpinoy says:

    Can’t we say with Hemmer’s injury, The Horcoff and Penner Line is now the 2nd line and with how the line of Gagner-Cole-Nilsson are playing, they are our first line. Perhaps a player like Poultny should have been called up but doesn’t he have some wavier wire issues? Either way, I think it’s time management does something and upgrade the roster with a shooter and a center who can win faceoffs.

  27. Coach pb9617 says:

    LT: For initial value of the Smyth trade, would you rank the assets as such:

    Smyth – 14. All star

    8. Highly regarded prospect – Nilsson
    7. #1 draft pick
    4. Marginal prospect – O’Marra

    If that’s the case, I need to come up with a better ranking sequence, because a linear system doesn’t work.

  28. Lord Bob says:

    Coach, it seems to me like you’re starting with a conclusion (Lowe botched the Smyth trade) and trying to arrange your system to fit that conclusion, rather than arranging the conclusion to fit the evidence. Wrong way around. :P

    Also, LT, you asked earlier in the thread why the Oilers were playing Reddox in the first-line role rather than Schremp or Brule. My answer is “because the Oilers are idiots”. But your mileage may vary!

  29. Traktor says:

    Asiaoil: No need to apologize for speaking the truth. A lesser man would turn the other way.

    BTW, it must piss you off knowing Harri Sateri is tearing up the FNL. You called it.

  30. Eskimo44 says:

    I have read the site for quite a while but have never posted. I was bored so here are my player grades so far.

    Grades: Expectation, Season, Last15g (5g for goalies)

    R Ales Hemsky
    A+, A, A. Consistent. Needs to take next step to 100pt. player

    D Sheldon Souray
    A, A, A. Arguably an A+ but PK stinks.

    D Lubomir Visnovsky
    A, A, A+. Really setteling in. Needs to hit the net more with his shot and can seem frantic.

    G Dwayne Roloson
    B+, A, A. Gives up no rebounds. The Oilers have a chance every night he plays. An All Star.

    D Tom Gilbert
    B+,A-,A-. Completly solid player. Worth every penny

    C Shawn Horcoff
    A,B+,A. On pace after slow start. Needs a D-responsible center to take some pressure off.

    L Dustin Penner
    B+,B, A-. Responded to benching, will need to sustain his play. Could hit more

    D Denis Grebeshkov
    B+, B, A. Fewer and Fewer boneheaded plays and generally clears the zone well. A very good pincher.

    D Ladislav Smid
    B, B, B. Dominating soft ops. defensively at only 22 but needs to become a strong PKer and create more. Chris Phillips?
    L Ethan Moreau
    B, B, B. Solid leader. Occasional bad penalties, although he draws his fair share, and poor hands are his downfall.

    C Andrew Cogliano
    B, B-,B. Needs to win faceoffs. Has been excellent 5 on 5.

    R Fernando Pisani
    B,B,B-,INJ. A player who did well given the lack of team chemisty at the time while playing out of position

    L Marc Pouliot
    B-C+,B. Has played to near expectations by first keeping his head above water then stepping up offensivly.

    C Sam Gagner
    B+,C,B. Great in the open ice but ocassional weak passes and poor cycling = turnovers. Starting to use speed more

    R Erik Cole
    B+,C,B. Thank god he’s found chemistry with gagner. Could be a huge combo down the strech.

    C Kyle Brodziak
    B,C,C+. Needs to step up and be more effective at the dot and on the PK.

    R Zack Stortini
    C+,C,C+.Has been a contributer with his fighting, agatating and hitting skills. Has been effective cycling the puck.

    D Steve Staios
    B,C,C. Needs to step up and clear the zone more effectivly.

    R Robert Nilsson
    B,C,C. If only he could be the player he shows flashes of.

    L Jason Strudwick
    C,C,C. Lived up to expectations. Slow and needs to be sheltered but is a leader on the ice who plays within himself.

    L Liam Reddox
    C,C,C. The Pisani replacement has been good enough although a definite downgrade.

    G Mathieu Garon
    A-,C-,D. Should ask Rolli to teach him some Rebound control.

    L Steve MacIntyre
    C,C+,INJ. Was very effective for someone who could easily be a liability.

  31. Coach pb9617 says:

    Hm, it would seem that reversing James’ roster tax would be the way to go. A non-roster penalty, as it were.

    14. All star – Smyth

    8. Highly regarded prospect – Nilsson
    7. #1 draft pick
    4. Marginal prospect – O’Marra

    And then subtract some value (4?) for the non-roster players.

    So the initial value of the deal would be 14 Islanders, 11 Edmonton.

  32. Coach pb9617 says:

    Coach, it seems to me like you’re starting with a conclusion (Lowe botched the Smyth trade) and trying to arrange your system to fit that conclusion, rather than arranging the conclusion to fit the evidence. Wrong way around. :P

    LB, you have to read yesterday’s thread. My initial hypothesis is:

    …I think that the majority of the hockey world judges their own GM in a vacuum, as if they are the only ones that can’t get value. But I can go back through a large number of transactions where A flight talent is being moved, but I’m finding it rare that equal return comes back. Not rare that a GM is consistent, rare that it EVER happens. EVER.

    So it’s possible that rather than grading a GM on a straight scale for getting return on A flight talent, there should be a curve, based on past results instituted…

    …I think that the definition of a “good” return for A talent must be established, and can’t stay a concept in each fan’s head because he can make that trade on Eastside Hockey Manager. And it certainly can’t be an “A for A” return, because at no point in hockey history has A for A been the norm for the market.

    Off of a gut feeling from following this stuff for way too many years, my initial stake in the ground for a return on A talent, that the market will bare and has borne is:

    A: B, C, pick, pick
    A: B, B, pick

    I’d LOVE to see a study on it. Maybe take the top couple of hundred players to be traded and look at return and go from there. However, I know that A:A is not a possibility and judging a GM by that scale isn’t logically fair.

    If you look at the “great traders” of all time, they made their living bringing in top talents for a collection of stuff. There are no “great traders” that traded away stars. There’s a reason for that…

  33. Schitzo says:

    All Liam Reddox playing on the top line tells me is how f***ed up this team’s coaching is. Like he deserves the precious top line minutes that MacT doles out like fine cognac to only the deserving?

    For once I totally agree with MacT’s decision on the lines.

    Against Ottawa, the 12-89-26 line was FINALLY starting to click. Can’t split them up.

    As per Gregor, Cogliano is awful if he’s not playing C. Ok, so that means you can’t really monkey with the third line.

    So really it comes down to promoting one of Brodziak or Reddox, and the 4th line had been doing alright recently also. I don’t see Brodziak being so much better than Reddox that it really matters much either way.

    And against the Flames, well shit, the kid scored a goal the night before, why rock the boat then?

  34. Traktor says:

    “For once I totally agree with MacT’s decision on the lines.”

    Considering Edmonton is 0-2 with the current lines in place I totally agree with MacTavish’s line combos as well. Of course my goal is to finish in the lottery but its all the same.

  35. godot10 says:

    Reddox was put with Horcoff not because it was the #1 line, but because it was going to be playing against Spezza and Heatley.

    Cogliano and Gagner are centres. The only other option was Nilsson, and keeping Nilsson with Gagner and Cole made more sense considering who Horcoff’s line was matched up against.

    The plan for the game was for Horcoff’s line to play Spezza’s line even (mission accomplished) and for the rest of the Oilers to beat the rest of the Senators (mission failed).

    Reddox didn’t lose the Senators game.

  36. Coach pb9617 says:

    As per Gregor, Cogliano is awful if he’s not playing C. Ok, so that means you can’t really monkey with the third line.

    Yet he can’t win a faceoff to save his, or anyone else on the planet’s life.

    I keep combing the wires hoping to see that trade for Jim Dowd any time now.

  37. Schitzo says:

    Considering Edmonton is 0-2 with the current lines in place I totally agree with MacTavish’s line combos as well. Of course my goal is to finish in the lottery but its all the same.

    You’re absolutely right. It has more to do with where Liam Reddox plays than missing Hemsky. Heck, I heard Reddox was intentionally making our PP look bad.

  38. Kris says:

    Coach:

    I think the idea of adding the values of the players is only going to throw off your analysis.

    You need to come up with a spreadsheet that says something like:

    An A player, over the past 10 years gets either 2 B+’s and a B 30% of the time, OR, 3 average picks and an A- player 10 percent of the time, OR 1 B player and 1 great picK 60% of the time

    A B+/B player gets either…

    A C player gets either…

    Etc.

    If you aren’t good at writing code so that you can type in a recent trade and see exactly how many GM’s in the past have gotten similar results, I’d make very broad categories: Great Player, Roster Player, Marginal Player, Can’t miss Prospect, 1st Round Pick/ Decent Prospect, Other Considerations.

    A table with broader categories is more accesible, and any accuracy isn’t really what you’re going for; you’re trying to create a baseline value for trades. You needn’t differentiate all stars from HoF’ers or middling prospects from worse prospects, etc.

  39. Kris says:

    And of course, I’d also simplify by, as LT seems to suggest, ignoring any addition to a trade lower than a 3rd or a really good prospect. Why count the throw-ins?

  40. HBomb says:

    with Horcoff running all over the special teams that line won’t be the strongest EV rep anyway.

    Well it should be, considering Horcoff is the best ES forward on the team by a country mile with Horcoff out. Putting Cole up there for power-vs-power duty would be the obvious fix, but he’s starting to gel with Gagner and Nilsson, as has been mentioned.

    This would be easy to fix if Pisani was healthy. Swing him up with Horcoff and Penner and run those guys out against the tough matchup (This team’s best opportunity for success against other team’s top lines is Horcoff/Hemsky power vs. power. Second best is Horcoff/Pisani power vs. power).

    Right now, with both Hemsky and Pisani out, it’s a certified cluster-you-know-what. Add in Pouliot and that’s three of the team’s top nine forwards on the shelf, two of whom are RW’s and one who can play the position. Ugly.

  41. Lord Bob says:

    You guys all have the World Juniors on right now, right? Because if not, you’re missing out.

  42. Traktor says:

    Schitzo: Fans tried to justify Stortini playing against Crosby last year too. Nothing surprises me in Oil Country.

  43. hunter1909 says:

    I made the first post but it was just another tirade about schremp and blah blah blah lol how hes better than reddox blah blah blah the oilers make me sick the way they fuck up the heads of their prospects before letting them go as washups instead of actually nurturing development …

    even i get tired of myself at times

    :p

  44. Lowetide says:

    This WJ is epic. Slovaks are playing well and frustrating the Swedes. Not close to the same game as last night which imo was a lot about the United States and their entitlement roster looking past them.

    Today is about a team believing in itself. They have some talent too, and Kytnar (is it pronounced Kytnar or Kytnash?)looks like he might be a player.

  45. Traktor says:

    The Slovaks look to be very well coached.

    “Today is about a team believing in itself”

    Couldn’t agree more.

  46. HBomb says:

    You know what I find odd? Detroit had the 30th overall pick this past June and went for a goalie, but took the American McCollum over the Swede Markstrom.

    Considering that Sweden has been the Red Wing procurement wheelhouse for the last, oh, 20 years….I find this decision a bit odd.

    But when you look at it, even with their great drafting record, Detroit hasn’t produced it’s own goalie to this point. Sure, Jimmy Howard’s still young, but maybe this adds credence to the idea that drafting/developing goalies is a completely different kettle of fish from everything else.

  47. Coach pb9617 says:

    You need to come up with a spreadsheet that says something like:

    An A player, over the past 10 years gets either 2 B+’s and a B 30% of the time, OR, 3 average picks and an A- player 10 percent of the time, OR 1 B player and 1 great picK 60% of the time

    Kris, it’s just as difficult and more nebulous to try and assign a talent level to players moving back and forth.

  48. B.C.B. says:

    Coach: interesting idea.

    Can anyone tell me why there are only four teams represented in the first team allstar game: Montreal, Anaheim, Chicago, and Pittsburgh. This fan voting has to go. Why no Sharks? Where is Ovechkin? Or even Iggy? This is disgusting.

  49. Coach pb9617 says:

    And of course, I’d also simplify by, as LT seems to suggest, ignoring any addition to a trade lower than a 3rd or a really good prospect. Why count the throw-ins?

    I’m seeing that as I’m running these through – the throw-ins become a net negative.

  50. Jonathan says:

    Kytnar drawing a penalty by high-sticking his own man. That’s just a little lucky.

  51. Coach pb9617 says:

    Right now, with both Hemsky and Pisani out, it’s a certified cluster-you-know-what. Add in Pouliot and that’s three of the team’s top nine forwards on the shelf, two of whom are RW’s and one who can play the position. Ugly.

    Exactly, and yet Mac is taking shit for this. The one thing that Lowe can’t take shit for is the RW depth on this team and the one thing Mac can’t take shit for is trying to band-aid a roster missing their two best RWs. Yet they both have this week here and elsewhere.

    Take Kane and Versteeg from the Hawks and they’re going to have some issues as well.

    There’s plenty to nail the two of them to the wall on, without making shit up. Making up facetious arguments to try and further your point detracts from the original premise.

  52. Jonathan says:

    Okay, let’s look at who MacTavish could play with Penner and Horcoff:

    Erik Cole/Sam Gagner have both played RW, but given how well that line has been working of late, MacTavish doesn’t want to split it up. Who does that leave?

    Reddox, Stortini, Brodziak, Brule or from the minors there’s Potulny.

    Frankly, I’d like to see Brule on that top line, because I think his offense is better than Reddox’s. Either way, though, we’re talking a guy who started the year in Springfield subbing in for Hemsky.

  53. Coach pb9617 says:

    But when you look at it, even with their great drafting record, Detroit hasn’t produced it’s own goalie to this point.

    This was another debate in a GDT thread long ago. My contention is that the only teams in the NHL that develop goalies: San Jose, Buffalo, and the Rangers. The Red Wings are not alone.

  54. Lord Bob says:

    Kytnar drawing a penalty by high-sticking his own man. That’s just a little lucky.

    Lucky? Please. Kytnar has the best penalties-drawn-by-high-sticking-your-own-man/60 EV minutes in the World Juniors this year.

  55. Coach pb9617 says:

    Can anyone tell me why there are only four teams represented in the first team allstar game: Montreal, Anaheim, Chicago, and Pittsburgh. This fan voting has to go. Why no Sharks? Where is Ovechkin? Or even Iggy? This is disgusting.

    Because a fan can just text message a team name to the NHL and it’s filed as a vote for each player on that team, not just a single vote. So voting for Edmonton’s code means a vote for Horcoff, Hemsky, Penner, Souray, Vishnovsky, Roloson. It’s how the Canadiens got a huge early lead, and it’s how the Penguins caught up.

  56. Coach pb9617 says:

    Dead on Jonathan.

  57. Jonathan says:

    Lord Bob: But is there sustain? I mean, it’s great and all that he can do it at the World Juniors, but traditionally a player will lose a high percentage of his penalties-drawn-by-high-sticking-his-own-man/60 when he jumps to the NHL.

  58. Eskimo44 says:

    talking of trades how about these two:

    staios, brodziak for malholtra, methot. might have to throw in a low round pick or mid level prospect.

    grebeshkov,nilsson, brule/schremp, garon (if they even want him), 2nd rnd pick. for spezza. ott needs scoring depth, better goaltending and a puck moving d if the oilers need to throw in cole or roloson instead of someone else do it.

    in this scenario either peckham or strudwick play in the top 6. but a vertan ufa d man who plays gritty can be had at the deadline. karlis skastins maybe.

  59. Coach pb9617 says:

    LT: I've added another category on top of the MVP category to differentiate between Brad Richards, Terry Pendleton, Brady Anderson and Jaromir Jagr, Frank Robinson.

    19-HOF
    18-MVP
    17-Strong MVP candidate
    16-Quality NHL regular
    15-Quality NHL regular player less than 70 games
    14-Above average NHLer
    13-Above average NHLer w/less 70 games
    12-NHL regular
    11-NHL regular <70 games
    10-Replacement level NHLer
    9-Quality prospect, Lottery pick
    8-Fringe NHL players, 1st Round pick
    7-AHL regular, 2nd round pick
    6-Callup
    5-Mid level prospect, 3rd round pick
    4-Marginal pro prospect
    3-Unknown quality

    I'm subtracting a "roster penalty" from any of the non-roster assets, and for now that roster penalty is 4. Otherwise, three fringe players are more valuable than an HOF player.

    What do you think of where I slotted draft picks?

  60. Jonathan says:

    Eskimo: I think Ottawa laughs you off the phone for that proposal. Auld’s play is far better than Garon’s this season.

    Plus, last I checked (i.e. it may have changed in the past few weeks) Columbus’ pressing needs were a) number one centre and b) puck-moving defenseman, in that order. Staios and Brodziak don’t address their needs.

  61. Eskimo44 says:

    a 1st rnd pick is worth an above average nhler. in the trade market anyway.

  62. Coach pb9617 says:

    staios, brodziak for malholtra, methot. might have to throw in a low round pick or mid level prospect.

    With Klesla off of IR, Staios wouldn’t find the ice for Columbus right now. Surprisingly, defense isn’t the issue for the Jackets and if it is, it’s not going to be fixed by 2.7 million in the 7th dman.

  63. Jonathan says:

    Coach: I think you undervalue draft picks. For example, Marc-Andre Bergeron (11 or 12) is routinely traded for 3rd round draft picks (5).

  64. Lowetide says:

    Coach: Draft picks are a tough one. I’d suggest a higher ranking for a lottery (1-6) pick in the first round and then something in the middle for the rest of round one.

    It’s a good list you’ve got right now, though.

  65. Lord Bob says:

    And, of course, different picks in a round can be worth a different amount depending on position and even the quality of the draft class. The #5 OA is worth quite a lot more than the #15 OA which is worth more than the #30 OA but not by as much, if I made any sense.

  66. Coach pb9617 says:

    Sorry to spam the comments LT. Next pass:

    19-HOF
    18-MVP
    17-Strong MVP candidate
    16-Quality NHL regular
    15-Quality NHL regular player less than 70 games, Lottery Pick
    14-Above average NHLer
    13-Above average NHLer w/less 70 games, 1st Round pick
    12-NHL regular, 2nd round pick
    11-NHL regular <70 games
    10-Replacement level NHLer
    9-Quality prospect
    8-Fringe NHL players, 3rd round pick
    7-AHL regular
    6-Callup
    5-Mid level prospect
    4-Marginal pro prospect
    3-Unknown quality

  67. Kris says:

    “Kris, it’s just as difficult and more nebulous to try and assign a talent level to players moving back and forth.”

    That’s why you keep your categories broad: great player, good player, average player, sometimes AHL’er. I mean, you are evaluating trades after all, there’s no entirely objective way to do this.

    And -as I was trying to say above- even if rating players is difficult and subjective, figuring out a metric whereby you sum up the combined values of players is even more difficult. Suppose GM X gets 1 good player and 3 average players. While GM Y gets 2 good players. Who got the better return? Who knows? My point is that there really isn’t any good way of answering this question, and your analysis will be better if you don’t try and answer this question. It is easier to determine that GM’s Xa….Xn all received, let’s say, 2 good players, thereby showing that GM Xp, who only received, let’s say, 1 good and 1 average player didn’t get full value.

    In other words, I think you’ll have an easier time using math to organize the information you’re sifting through so that it’s in a form all of us use can use to evaluate trades when they come up.

    Anyway, I’m interested to see what you work out. Good luck.

  68. Eskimo44 says:

    the reason i think its a decent trade for columbus is because methot is a young player on a team trying to learn how to win, staios in that regard is fairly valuable. malholtra is a ufa at the end of the year and an asset like brodziak is a decent return. like i said, might have to throw in a pick. as for ottawa, grebeshkov and nilsson still have rfa status and even though auld has been good he isn’t good enough. bryan murray needs to win now the above trade was a starting point. how about grebeshkov, nilsson, roloson, prospect, 2nd rnd. pick for a guy who gets paid 7 mil. a year to score under 1 pt. per game. Hossa, dupis went for armstrong, christiansen, esposito, 1st rnd. brad richards, holmquvist went for halpern, jokinen, smith, 4th rnd

  69. Kris says:

    Perhaps I just don’t understand what your numbers are doing.

    Are two average NHL regulars -i.e. 2 12′s equalling 24- worth more than a HoF’er at 19?

    Please explain, cuz I feel Buchberger dumb right now.

  70. Eskimo44 says:

    Coach pb9617:

    With Klesla off of IR, Staios wouldn’t find the ice for Columbus right now. Surprisingly, defense isn’t the issue for the Jackets and if it is, it’s not going to be fixed by 2.7 million in the 7th dman.

    there d aint that good. backman has been a disapointment.

  71. Jonathan says:

    Eskimo: In Murray’s shoes, would you trade Spezza for Grebeshkov, Nilsson, Roloson, Schremp and a 2nd round pick?

    I’d start by asking for Visnovsky and Gagner, and see what happened.

    My guess: Gilbert, Cogliano and Schremp get it done.

  72. Eskimo44 says:

    if im bryan murray i try to get cole instead of schremp but that would probably lessen/eliminate the pick.

    grebeshkov, nilsson, roloson, cole for spezza

    ottawa would be a much better team with this trade

  73. Eskimo44 says:

    Gilbert and cogliano is overpaying

  74. Kris says:

    “if im bryan murray i try to get cole instead of schremp but that would probably lessen/eliminate the pick.

    grebeshkov, nilsson, roloson, cole for spezza

    ottawa would be a much better team with this trade”

    Nilson is the only guy on your list who is signed past next year and he sometimes looks like he doesn’t belong in the NHL. (Of course, Grebs is an RFA not a UFA, but he could bolt for the KHL.) I think Ottawa will want more certainty in the players we send them.

  75. Jonathan says:

    Eskimo: Ottawa is 12 points out of a playoff spot. If you’re in Bryan Murray’s shoes, are you seriously willing to move a franchise center for:

    - a 39-year old goaltender who is entering unrestricted free agency and is only a marginal upgrade on your current starter
    - a UFA forward currently in the middle of his worst season in five years
    - an up-and-coming forward with consistency issues who has never topped 10 goals and is in the midst of a bad season and has just been called out (again) by his coach
    - a good puck-moving RFA defenseman (career high: 18 points)

    I certainly wouldn’t. I would demand players who would help now and in the future. The centre-piece of the deal would need to be one of Horcoff, Cogliano, Gagner, Gilbert or Visnovsky.

  76. Coach pb9617 says:

    there d aint that good. backman has been a disapointment.

    I suggest you look again. Hedja and Commodore have been steadily above par all year long. Klesla was excellent before the injury. Tyutin started very poorly, but has steadily improved. Backman is playing charmin-soft minutes, but he’s doing fine against them.

    The penalty kill slipped in Klesla’s absence and they miss someone to lug the puck. Russell isn’t quite ready yet, but has a ton of positives already.

    Staios doesn’t see the ice on this team. Grebs would, Staios wouldn’t.

  77. Eskimo44 says:

    when i think of past trades i think it makes sense. roloson by the way is somewhere around the top5 for even strenght save percentage and for my money has been an alls star in the west. other than 2 to 3 guys who’s been better? cole has been a very good player for a number of years in the east and plays bryan murray hockey. vertan players like cole who have scored 20-30 goals for 3 years straight always have value, just ask micheal ryder. grebeshkov to the khl is a a bunch of bs if thats where he wanted to play thats where he would be, hes also on pace for 38 pts. currently he’s at least a top 4 d-man at only 25 and getting better every year, guys like that don’t come cheap. When i look at other star player trades nilsson is the kind of high end gamble that is almost always involved. when you look at ottawas needs the most glaring is scoring depth, then a puck mover(grebeshkov is excellent in moving the puck out of the zone, at least in my estimation), and the one piece they have always been lacking a legitimate veteran playoff goalie.

  78. Eskimo44 says:

    Tytuin, Hejda, Commodore, Klesla, Staios, Backman. Since when can anyone count on Klesla to be healthy. Tytuin has clearly been the work horse there and Staios wold be talking methots min. as well as adding a leadership dimension.Backman has been a healthy scatch at times and wont be back next year at a 2.3 mil cap hit. Tollefsen is a 7th dman and russel isn’t ready. with the way their defense is set i think he fits well enough. he may not be the ideal fit but trades rarley are. I think brodziak also has more value to a team like columbus than malholtra, an upcoming UFA, does because they got mike peca to fill his role.

  79. Traktor says:

    Horcoff and Brodziak struggling on the dot? No worries.

    Enter Ethan Moreau, who was at centre ice this morning, working on his draws.

    “It will just give Horc a little more confidence if I’m out there on the PK that he can be a little more aggressive. If he gets kicked out then I can come in,” the captain said.

    “He has the strength and the williness to get in there and he’s an intimidating guy,” coach Craig MacTavish said of recruiting Moreau.

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/Moreau+honing+game/1138856/story.html

    Personally I would have had Moreau working on systems but I’m not as smart as the coach.

  80. Doogie2K says:

    Is there a new Roger Neilson in the OHL?

    I think every coach from major-junior on up has a bit of Roger Neilson in him, because of the things he brought to the table, particularly video analysis, which has become as much a part of high-level hockey coaching as the whiteboard rink diagram. That being said, Jonathan beat me to Reddox’s junior coaches, and I agree with him about Dick Todd being your man, though I’d suggest that maybe he just wasn’t interested in head-coaching at the NHL level. Too bad; he’s got the resume.

    And their goalie wears #2. I have NEVER seen that before.

    I also saw that from the Czechs, and find it very odd. I guess it’s just a different hockey tradition: we started out with the goalie at 1, D from 2, then F from 7 or 9, depending on roster size, then the other goalie at 30 once he became a regular part of the roster; they must’ve started with two goalies at 1-2, and the rest proceeding from there.

    Can anyone tell me why there are only four teams represented in the first team allstar game: Montreal, Anaheim, Chicago, and Pittsburgh.

    Because fans are douchebags?

  81. godot10 says:

    Anything for Spezza is overpaying! -)

    Worst value for money in the league.

  82. mc79hockey says:

    Somewhere right now, HBomb is happy and he doesn’t know why.

    Coach: Interesting idea. I tend to think that you’ll find that the compensation for star players has been underwhelming. The interesting question, I think, is why that is. My thoughts are that a lot of times the team moving the star gets themselves into a box in which they want to move the guy ASAP, whether necessarily or not, and they aren’t willing to wait until there’s a player of comparable value available.

    If you want to write something about this, let me know and I’ll give you some space at my place.

  83. Coach pb9617 says:

    Since when can anyone count on Klesla to be healthy

    Klesla’s games played over the last six:

    75, 72, 47, 51, 72, 82.

  84. Coach pb9617 says:

    Coach: Interesting idea. I tend to think that you’ll find that the compensation for star players has been underwhelming. The interesting question, I think, is why that is. My thoughts are that a lot of times the team moving the star gets themselves into a box in which they want to move the guy ASAP, whether necessarily or not, and they aren’t willing to wait until there’s a player of comparable value available.

    If you want to write something about this, let me know and I’ll give you some space at my place.

    Thanks for the offer, MC. Your inkling matches mine. I’ve always found it amusing that Craig Patrick was thought of as a god for landing superstars for pieces early on and then roundly trashed for landing pieces for superstars at the end. Kevin Lowe was king of the world for landing Pronger and a dirty dog for dealing him at the end.

    I’m just collecting data right now – I’m all the way back to Ray Bourque – and tinkering with the rankings system. It will take awhile.

  85. Eskimo44 says:

    I will say hes not as soft as i implyed but he certainly is more injury prone than most. 13 trips to the IR in 6 years is a fair bit

  86. mc79hockey says:

    Kevin Lowe was king of the world for landing Pronger and a dirty dog for dealing him at the end.

    At thr risk of making this a Pronger thread…in fairness to the people here, there were many who were more impressed with his other moves that season than they were with the Pronger one. I think I’ve said it a million times: something always happens. Lowe did a nice job putting himself in position to land someone like Pronger by piling up a lot of B/B+ level prospects but without the St. Louis/cap situation happening, it never would have come to fruition. He didn’t have that much control over that.

    He had a hell of a lot of control when he moved him though. Pronger wasn’t playing hockey anywhere for four years unless Kevin Lowe said so. He had more leverage over him than he did over Comrie, for Christ’s sake. You can say “Well, he would have fucked the team if he hadn’t moved him” but it’s not like the past three years have been anything to write home about (blogging incessantly is apparently different than writing home).

  87. mc79hockey says:

    None of the above is to say that getting Pronger wasn’t awesome, just that there were a lot of circumstances outside of Lowe’s control that we shouldn’t credit him for. The local media certainly seems good at recognizing those factors when they conspire against our heroes; recognizing them when they’re working for them seems to be something of a collective blind spot.

  88. Coach pb9617 says:

    GAH! The jury will disregard any comments by the plaintiff regarding Pronger.

  89. Unleaded says:

    Coach:

    I can’t say that I totally understand where you are at with the trade evaluations, but I think that the math on the Smyth trade depends a great deal on how you access who the trade is made with.

    If you are looking at it in terms of the value of the player traded, from the time traded up to the close of the five year window, then I can understand how the preliminary ratings came out so bad for the oilers. Because of the draft picks, it’s definitely going to be tougher to judge, because it’s not only the pick, but the value of the person chosen with that pick. Hence the questionable value with Plante in the Smyth deal. So one question I have for you is how will you look at it – as the value of the pick, or the player chosen with that pick? It seems to make more sense from where I am at to look at the pick itself, and not how it is used as far as winnin the trade, bcause when a GM makes the trade, he never know exactly what he will get with it.

    Also, will you consider how long the player actually plays for the team they are traded to? If so, then the Smyth trade has Lowe making out as a highwayman a from NYI perspective, but if you are looking at the value of the player regardless of where he plays, then there are a lot more questions.

    Finally, how will you deal with the intangible factors that go along with each deal? There have already ben questions about your own bias here, so how will your system work to mitigate your own beleifs?

    Hope the thoughts are helpful. I’m really looking forward to reading what you come up with.

  90. HBomb says:

    Somewhere right now, HBomb is happy and he doesn’t know why.

    Well, I know I’ve got a shit-eating grin on my face because Corey Perry got himself suspended – is this what you’re getting at?

  91. hunter1909 says:

    Lowe showed himself up as a cack handed idiot over the Pronger trade.

    Imagine having a player signed to a 4 year contract, and then “somehow” he has to be traded in a matter of days?

  92. hunter1909 says:

    Why can’t the Oilers just tank the season already?

    Then they can fire MacTavish, get a lottery pick(Tavares lol), and everyone will feel fuzzy and warm inside.

  93. hunter1909 says:

    Ryan Smyth worth 6 million a season?

    Please.

    And a big fuck off to everyone who calls him an “all star.”

    Players like Crosby and Iginla are what we call all stars, not 3rd liners on the annual playoff losers-who-get-to-play in an annual international hockey tournament.

  94. Coach pb9617 says:

    Finally, how will you deal with the intangible factors that go along with each deal?

    I won’t. I’ve got no interest in coming up with some set of variables for all particular circumstances. Like MC said above, every deal seems to have some circumstance behind it – “Pavel Bure hated Brian Burke” is really hard to turn into a number. “Chris Pronger touched Brent Gretzky’s Doberman” is not easy to quantify.

    I’m tracking Date, so that I can see in-season, deadline and off-season return; Date, so that I can see if there has been any change in expected return in the capped world; GM, so that I can see GM performance from both sides of the table; Team, so that I can see if any team has a history from either side of the table.

    As for rentals versus long-term signings, I’m not going to track that either, because that’s a different part of the GM’s job that doesn’t relate to the actual return. Snow couldn’t resign Smyth, Shero couldn’t resign Hossa – those things don’t affect the return on the deal.

    So one question I have for you is how will you look at it – as the value of the pick, or the player chosen with that pick? It seems to make more sense from where I am at to look at the pick itself, and not how it is used as far as winnin the trade, bcause when a GM makes the trade, he never know exactly what he will get with it.

    Exactly, and that’s how I’m going to do it. Maybe there should be some additional scrubbing to see if certain GMs have a predilection to collecting picks and if that’s a good or bad thing, when compared to his draft history and the organization’s development ability. Drafting is a different part of his job. I’m just interested in the return on the deal at the time.

    I’m going to spend a week or so collecting the trades data and refining the ratings system and asking for guys I’ve missed. I’m limiting it to all-star level players right now, and it’s pretty amazing already. Without applying a ratings system yet, no one wins when they are holding the big gun. I think that the numbers will probably show that it’s closer than I think it is, but just raw names are amazing to look at.

  95. Jonathan says:

    Players like Crosby and Iginla are what we call all stars, not 3rd liners on the annual playoff losers-who-get-to-play in an annual international hockey tournament.

    You forgot to mention Anaheim goaltenders who are outplayed by their backups – they’re all-stars too.

  96. Jonathan says:

    Ryan Smyth worth 6 million a season?

    6.25 million per season, for many seasons, as decided by the Avalanche GM. Aforementioned GM may or may not have a better idea of player value than you.

  97. Vic Ferrari says:

    LT:
    Thanks for the link to jonathon’s post, terrific stuff.

    jonathon:
    I think that breaking it down into GF and GA just will add noise and no value, but it’s your game.

    tyler:
    As well on the Pronger deal, my understanding is that Chris wanted out of STL when he saw the rebuild writing on the wall. And he also said that he would only sign long term with a Canadian team. Since the Oilers were pretty much the only Canadian team with cap space readily available … it was inevitable that Pleau was going to look bad and Lowe look good with that one.

  98. Unleaded says:

    Thanks for the additional detail coach.

    Like I said earlier, I’m really excited to take a look at what you come up with.

    Now if only I were this excited about the game tonight… :P

  99. PDO says:

    HE’S CLUTCH TOO!!!!!!!

  100. Jeff says:

    EBERLE!!!!!

  101. Lowetide says:

    Stu MacGregor you magnificent bastard.

  102. Coach pb9617 says:

    Pierre already has the swallow machine loaded up.

    “Tavares’ magical play.”

    Hm. Throwing it at the net is now a magical play. I can’t WAIT for draft day.

  103. Coach pb9617 says:

    This is the absolute worst way to decide this game.

  104. Black Dog says:

    come on coach, what would you have them do? play the game to decide it?

  105. Black Dog says:

    I love the shootout. ;)

  106. Coach pb9617 says:

    come on coach, what would you have them do? play the game to decide it?

    I actually don’t mind the shootout in a season structure. In a tournament structure – you gotta be fuggin kidding me.

    It’s like ending an NCAA final four game with a dunk competition.

  107. Lowetide says:

    After watching the kids, now we watch the men and as I turn the channel the Oilers shorthanded.

    For one fleeting moment I’d forgotten.

  108. Black Dog says:

    I can’t believe there are two teams worse on the PK then the Oilers.

    Nice aggressive kill though.

  109. PDO says:

    Penner just one punched Wilson.

    Holy shit.

  110. Coach pb9617 says:

    Oh Dustin. I love you.

  111. PDO says:

    Souray should be our #1 LW.

    ?

  112. Black Dog says:

    Crawford is an awesome announcer.

    He’s like Porky Pig, mispronouncing everything in his fucked up little voice, stuttering and stumbling.

    Jesus

  113. Coach pb9617 says:

    I’m in a state of bliss. My love for Dustin Penner grows each game.

    He must be as strong as an elephant. Wilson was so overmatched.

  114. Black Dog says:

    So safe to say that Cole has found his range then?

  115. PDO says:

    Equally important…

    What about Gagner?

    And these two definitely have some chemistry. Cole just about snagged a beauty there.

  116. danny says:

    The PK is looking pretty solid. As basic as it gets but very familiar…

    the biggest difference I’ve noticed is an adjustment with the defensemen, pretty much zero pursuit away from their respective post. It will allow a lot more posession time for the bad guys but we wont see the rotation and switching f-ups that we have watched so much this year.

    I like it. It probably would have made us a 15th ranked pkill had we played this way all along IMO.

    Ive been a naysayer about this team since the summer, and we still need a couple role players, but there are a nice few indicators pointing in the right direction should the Pkill, and Gags/Cole turn it around.

  117. danny says:

    the PK got a freebie there. Counts as a kill though :)

  118. Black Dog says:

    lets hope so Danny but Dallas PP is pretty shit, I think

    still, a little more aggression down ice as well so this is good to see

    pdo – yeah, Gagner is finding his range it seems, same as last year, huh? slow starter it seems

  119. Coach pb9617 says:

    the biggest difference I’ve noticed is an adjustment with the defensemen, pretty much zero pursuit away from their respective post.

    So they can fire Staios’ driver then?

    Hm. Someone photoshop Staios’ face into the backseat on a Driving Miss Daisy picture.

  120. Asiaoil says:

    Traktor said…BTW, it must piss you off knowing Harri Sateri is tearing up the FNL. You called it.

    Good god you have memory :)

    You probably have a better chance of getting a quality Euro goalie in the 3rd or 4th round than a skater if you know what you are doing. Problem is we are probably the most clueless team in the league when it comes to drafting and developing goalies so it never happens.

  121. B.C.B. says:

    Cole scores. Penner fights. We haven’t let a goal in on the PK. And we are winning draws.

    Is this the same team I was watching before Christmas?

  122. danny says:

    lol every time they pan the camera to Tipetts face hes dropping the F-Bomb.

    Brule is looking pretty good in the O-zone.

  123. Lord Bob says:

    Have another donut! Have another donut!

  124. quain says:

    I’m glad we traded all those guys from the Calgary game for the guys in this game. They’re a lot better.

  125. Black Dog says:

    Penner is so fat and lazy.

    Cole too. Holy shit.

  126. Coach pb9617 says:

    I like it. It probably would have made us a 15th ranked pkill had we played this way all along IMO.

    First place!

    pdo – yeah, Gagner is finding his range it seems, same as last year, huh?

    Gagner is still sputtering one shift and gliding the next. Even that pass to Cole was behind him, but a sweet play by Cole to recover.

    But, two steps up, one step back is better than full out retreat, like he was for the first 32.

    slow starter it seems

    So he’s Adam Laroche?

  127. Coach pb9617 says:

    Cole with a goal and an assist

    Souray with a goal and an assist

    Penner with a goal, a fight and a kill.

  128. Black Dog says:

    I enjoyed the description of Wilson’s injuries.

    Definitely a shoulder.

    Or maybe his head.

    Or his back.

    Yikes.

  129. Coach pb9617 says:

    Penner is so fat and lazy.

    Goal, fight, kill, penalty drawn and penalty taken tonight.

    It’s like he’s a power forward or something.

  130. Coach pb9617 says:

    Within two thoughts Crawford mispronounced “Roloston” and and “Mike Richards”

  131. Black Dog says:

    They should play Penner at RW with Moreau and Brodziak. Did wonders for Cole.

  132. Coach pb9617 says:

    I need a little help here; is Brule a native RW? I know he’s a C, but he didn’t take enough draws to be a full time C in Columbus. Where did he play? Where is he playing in the A?

    I can remember all four points that Marcel Dionne put up in a game in 1981, but I can’t remember where Brule plays. Age sucks.

  133. Lord Bob says:

    Penner would have scored two goals if MacTavish hadn’t lost the room.

  134. PDO says:

    A) I love Penner’s fat ass.
    B) That Neal kid is going to be a pain in our ass for a long time.
    C) That Barch kid can fight.

  135. Coach pb9617 says:

    Now he’s “Rolofson”

    That shot by Neal on Penner was a shoulder to the head. Should have been a call on that and there should be a ball from the league office if they’re serious about head shots.

    Why the misconducts for that fight?

  136. Lowetide says:

    BD: That Crawford item awhile back made me giggle. Crawford has problems with simple English! Now he’s no PJ Stock who needs a wind sock and a spittoon.

    As for the Oildrop, they have some nice jump tonight but lack the dynamic Hemsky. Need him back rfn.

  137. Bruce says:

    Hi from Yellowknife. Can’t see the game, am peeking in here from time to time. Questions:

    Oilers full value for the lead? Shots on net suggest otherwise.

    Did Penner get hurt on the head shot?

    If “that Barch kid can fight” does that mean he got the better of Stortini? Those two had a long-drawn-out ding-dong battle in Dallas a month ago that had “to be continued” written all over it.

    Hasn’t Marc Crawford had that tongue transplant yet?

  138. oilerdago says:

    Coach, if I’m not mistaken, he’s startiing the same combo for the 3rd period.

  139. B.C.B. says:

    I guess Crawford thinks Smid is not that physical. I wonder why he is out of a job. But at least he pronounced his name right.

  140. Coach pb9617 says:

    Did Penner get hurt on the head shot?

    No, he looked annoyed by it, much like General Zod in Superman II. He may one-punch KO someone again next time because of this.

    If “that Barch kid can fight” does that mean he got the better of Stortini? Those two had a long-drawn-out ding-dong battle in Dallas a month ago that had “to be continued” written all over it.

    Not really. It was a good bout.

    Stortini has been excellent in a limited role tonight thus far. The 4th was over the wall after a power play at least once, I think twice tonight.

    Coach, if I’m not mistaken, he’s startiing the same combo for the 3rd period.

    He was out with Cogliano for a regular shift there too. Mac just riding the hot hand?

  141. Coach pb9617 says:

    Awesome own zone work by Penner there that last shift and then he just fires Ott on the ice like a little brother.

    Nice little hustle play by Gagner at center ice too.

    GAH! BRULE! Just get the puck out. The cute feed is not necessary.

  142. oilerdago says:

    Dallas has been carrying the play here the last several shifts. Time to stop playing back on their heals.

  143. Black Dog says:

    LT – you know as well as I that CBC has had some quality guys in the sportscasting for a long time but this trend towards guys who are just plain terrible is worrisome

    At least Bob Cole has age as an excuse.

  144. Lowetide says:

    A tough shift by Horcoff there, by that I mean he was doing a lot of heavy lifting while appearing to be both the LW and LD. lol. I love that guy’s play.

    Brule is just a kid but you can see he’s got some things. Among them is some jump. He doesn’t look like a cerebral type, though. More instincty.

  145. Coach pb9617 says:

    Mac sends out 51 between 89 and 26 to take the own zone draw. About time he starts doing the “Pahlsson”. Need that Dowd trade tomorrow.

    Amazing work by Lubo on the three on one-and-a-half.

    Dallas is just shooting every damned thing at the net. That’s normally when Roloson has a freakout and tried to punch someone.

  146. Lowetide says:

    Coach: Good point about Roloson. I think he likes the attention. If he were a rock singer he’d be Geddy Lee.

  147. Black Dog says:

    LT – yeah Horc seems to have plenty of jump for sure but he’s certainly not the only one.

    Which of course what makes cheering for this team so maddening. Heckyl and Jeckyl.

    Or something.

  148. Lowetide says:

    BD: This is so much more fun than the Ottawa game. I must have yelled beer me 20 times that night.

  149. Lowetide says:

    Kid line with a decent sequence.

  150. oilerdago says:

    Cogs! Put this baby away!!

  151. Lowetide says:

    And now Crawford can’t remember who’s who. I remember him as a player.

    M-A-R-G-I-N-A-L.

    Which he probably can’t pronouce.

  152. Lowetide says:

    Now Mark Lee is reading off the menu!

  153. Black Dog says:

    And this is a decent Dalas club again, Oilers have been full value.

    Visnovsky really is something.

    And as for Cogliano, this kid will learn the defending part of it, I would think, and when he does he will be special. Jeez he’s terrific.

  154. Lowetide says:

    I think we’re watching the 69-72 Goring in LA with Cogs. He was sent to the minors in year 2 (1970) and didn’t win an award for a few more years but he was famous within a few years.

  155. Black Dog says:

    I know its part and parcel with kids but this makes me mental. Up and down the board strong performances tonight.

    And next game they could just stink it out.

    Plus Penner is fat and he is very very lazy.

  156. Coach pb9617 says:

    Coach: Good point about Roloson. I think he likes the attention. If he were a rock singer he’d be Geddy Lee.

    Keith Moon if he were a drummer :)

  157. Black Dog says:

    btw LT nice post on Reddox as well as the previous. Just returned from PEI so that is about all I can muster by way of intelligent commentary.

    We made it but Dada is done.

    Anyway I really enjoyed both. I’m just too fried to offer up much more then ‘good job’.

  158. Coach pb9617 says:

    Hey seus.

    The Stars had 39 shots and probably had 40 missed, tipped or blocked. I think they may have attempted more shots than passes.

    Faceoffs report

    Cogliano goes 4-12 and Gagner goes 2-7. Not a type here, that’s a combined 6-19. Mac only gave them five defensive zone faceoffs and it’s still too many – they went a combined 0 – 5.

    Brodziak gets 15 faceoffs tonight – 1 offensive zone, 4 neutral zone, 10 defensive zone. He goes 11 for 15. That’s just a shitty job – that’s cleaning stables with a pitchfork work. That’s night porter at a restaurant work.

    Amazing work by Brodziak. Just amazing.

  159. oilerdago says:

    Black Dog, that’s why I like them being broken up right now. Playing with Cole seems to be helping Gagner find his game.

    I just wish we could find a more complimentary player for Cogliano than Moreau (maybe the Moreau of 3 or 4 years ago).

  160. Coach pb9617 says:

    I just wish we could find a more complimentary player for Cogliano than Moreau (maybe the Moreau of 3 or 4 years ago).

    *runs off to find my bangin’ drum*

    PISANI!

    Awesome, I made a typo on ‘typo’ above.

  161. oilerdago says:

    Pisani! That I could forget Pisani? I’m off to the stupid corner.

  162. PDO says:

    Exclude October, and Horcoff would be on pace for 20 goals and 58 assists this season.

  163. mc79hockey says:

    So he’s Adam Laroche?

    Nice, another hardcore baseball fan for our little crew.

    Fun game tonight. I see Dennis hasn’t checked in but CBC flashed the chances at one point and had them like 14-6 Oil, I think. I almost wonder if they had it reversed or if I misread it because I would have guessed it was the other way at that time. I thought that the Oil were fairly lucky to be up 2-0 after 1 – Cole’s goal found a hole and Souray was lucky that that puck was still on his stick when he got to the net.

    Two brilliant moments tonight from an entertainment perspective involving Storts tonight. The Barch fight with Strudwick, where he had Stortini on the other side, knew he was going to fight but didn’t know who was hilarious. The moment after the Storts/Barch fight where, on high def, you could clearly see him call Barch a fucking douchebag was also topnotch.

    H – Right on Perry. I figured you’d like that.

  164. PDO says:

    Dawgbone pointed it on his blog..

    Am I insane to think Cogliano could/will end up better than Gagner? Speed… and finish. Assuming the smarts come, but even if they don’t, that speed will make up for a lot of it…

  165. Sean says:

    This was another debate in a GDT thread long ago. My contention is that the only teams in the NHL that develop goalies: San Jose, Buffalo, and the Rangers. The Red Wings are not alone.

    I’d throw Nashville on that list.

  166. PDO says:

    And Montreal….

  167. HBomb says:

    Back from the game….and yes, mc79, I approve of the Perry suspension. Anyone got a replay video of said incident?

    Anyways, a story – earlier this year, I had to ditch the Oilers/Flames game in October at Rexall after the 2nd period to go play ball hockey with Grabia. First time ever I’ve left a game early for any reason (my dad was incredibly tolerant during the early 90′s when we used to go to games during the dark ages of the Oildrop).

    Anyways, another first tonight. I stayed on the concourse and missed the first chunk of the first period to watch OT of the junior game. All I’ll say is this: I hope Jordan Eberle gets 14 as a number when he hits the NHL, because I’d suddenly have a use for my Torres jersey. The guy can flat out finish, and despite not being a big guy, he isn’t easily knocked off the puck. Plus he can pass. Having both Schremp and Nilsson likely makes one expendable before the deadline this year – well boys and girls, this kid could make BOTH expendable by this time next season.

    As for the Oilers – the veterans stepped up. Penner, Cole, Horcoff, Souray and Visnovsky all had great nights in the absence of Hemsky. And the kids were alright too – Grebeshkov has been good the last three games, Gilbert was quietly solid tonight, and Nilsson/Gagner/Cogliano all contributed.

    Dallas was trying to run around and goon it up, but the Oilers kept their composure. Penner’s one punch was sick (maybe his New Years Resolution was to eat more raw meat and become a mean miserable bastard, I don’t know), and both Stortini and Strudwick at least drew in their fights (I wonder if they’ve been getting some fighting coaching from MacIntyre during his injury absence).

    As for the shot clock – it may have been a 2-to-1 ratio in favor of Dallas, but I had the Oilers at least even in terms of actual quality chances. That being said, if Roloson keeps this up, he is going to fetch either

    a) a one year contract extension for himself

    OR

    b) a first rounder for the Oilers from Detroit at the deadline.

    I’d be OK with the latter – mostly because if this team is going to be first round fodder for the Wings or Sharks IF they make the playoffs, I’d rather sell off Roloson, Staios, Moreau and maybe a couple others and “tank for Tavares”. God that guy is something else – but it’s kind of nice that Canada’s second best forward this tournament may very well be the kid we’ve already drafted.

    Beer me. It’s been a good day. With the exception of the Colts losing in OT – stupid NFL rules need changing (the overtime format is a joke, and how a team with four more wins in the regular season is the road team in the first round of the playoffs is an even bigger joke).

  168. Jonathan says:

    Watched the game (and the third period of the WJC) at a good friend’s house – wowie.

    Eberle with a great night, and I really like that P.K. Subban kid too. Vancouver looks to have done well with the Hodgson pick. Also, that game should have been nowhere near that close from a Canadian perspective. Lots of sloppy play.

    As for the Oilers’ game – three words – Cole and Penner. If Erik Cole can keep playing like that, when Pisani and Hemsky come back they could make some noise. I can’t remember watching Penner fight; that was sick. Must be good buddies with Smid.

  169. Coach pb9617 says:

    Nice, another hardcore baseball fan for our little crew.

    Watch me though – I’m from the Whitey Herzog school. I created an adjusted slugging and OPS stat incorporating steals as bases and subtracting bases for CS.

    I’d draft a bunch of Willie Wilsons, Lonnie Smiths, Willie McGees, Tommy Herrs and theive at a 75% success rate :)

    I’d throw Nashville on that list.

    Maybe, but there’s not much of a history yet, is there? With Mason and Vokoun, Nashville was their third (I think third) organization. So if nothing else, they can make good with castoffs. If the Finn pans out, we might be onto something.

    And Montreal….

    Since Roy, show me a lineage. Theodore was a flash in the pan and the numbers support that. Are you giving them credit for Vokoun or does Nashville get it? Garon’s been a journeyman. Yeah, they were magnificient at finding goalies and getting them to the bigs for a very long time. Over the last twelve years, they’ve whiffed. I used to love her, but it’s all over now.

    Does anyone know how to find out if Pisani was taking PK faceoffs without going through the game reports?

  170. Sean says:

    Hey coach,

    I’ve read your ranking system with interest. Its good stuff. I have a suggestion to consider based on a comment by Kris:

    Are two average NHL regulars -i.e. 2 12′s equalling 24- worth more than a HoF’er at 19?

    I think thats where your system falls apart. In software estimates we use fibonacci numbers – where a number is the sum of its 2 previous parts. For example, an MVP would be worth a “strong MVP candidate” + “quality NHL regular”. However, for this to work, the 16 player levels you have is probably a few too many. Anyways, the Fibinacci system I’m mentioning here may not be the best idea but it could be a good starting point. Either way, I dont think the solution would be linear.

    Just an idea.

  171. Coach pb9617 says:

    Watching the game again and see now that Mac does his best to get Cogs faceoffs against Ribeiro, their worst, and Cogs is still getting beat on.

  172. PDO says:

    Huet, Halak, Price?

  173. Coach pb9617 says:

    oilerdago: we were both right. Reddox ducks off the shift at the end of the second early and Cole jumps on. Then Cole starts with Penner and Horcoff in the third. Must’ve had to use the potty, because he was back with the top line shortly thereafter.

    Mac spent the whole night chasing Richards around with Nilsson, Gagner, Cole. He also had Lubo and Grebs against Richards for all but two even strength shifts tonight. It looks like Mac was matching Horc against Modano, Lehetinen, and Neal. He had Souray and Gilbert against Modano for all but three even strength shifts.

    Just by looking at Brodizak’s shift chart, it looks like Mac Pahlssoned him five times tonight and used him a defensive zone backup for Horcoff in place of Reddox once.

    He brought the Brodziak line out directly after the PK if Brodziak wasn’t on it.

    I don’t want to frighten anyone, but, is Mac actually coaching again?!

  174. Coach pb9617 says:

    Huet, Halak, Price?

    Huet came through the Kings org.

    CombinedHalak and Price have 101 games under their belts, maybe after three or four hundred combined we can call them successes. Maybe they end up as Patrick Roy Deux, or, maybe they turn out to be Jose Theodore or Jim Carey.

  175. Lowetide says:

    I stop in for a brief moment before hitting the hay and I see two of my alltime favorites mentioned.

    Where else, I ask WHERE ELSE can you find two people referencing Whitey Herzog and my pal Fibonacci in the space of a few minutes?

    Well, a few places but not many have hockey at their center.

    It’s been a good night.

  176. Coach pb9617 says:

    Either way, I dont think the solution would be linear.

    I knew that linear wasn’t the answer when I started — see the original few posts. However, using a fib sequence doesn’t work either. I’m still fudging some scales and seeing what happens. Right now, plugging in blanks between specific spots seems to do the trick, so that the top HOF ranking is actually 36 and a lottery pick is 14, a second round pick is 9. In our heads, an MVPshouldn’t only return four second rounders, but something close has actually happened :) I know, I know, results oriented scales won’t work. I’ve got time to play for now.

    I’m wide open to suggestion still.

  177. mc79hockey says:

    Also, and this is a real aside: the sweater worn by tonight’s anthem singer? Fail. It looked like she had part of the sleeves turned into mittens. I assume Paul Lorieau was busy with a retirement home mixer or something.

  178. Bruce says:

    WHERE ELSE can you find two people referencing Whitey Herzog and my pal Fibonacci in the space of a few minutes?

    LT: Nowhere else, that’s where. Awesome.

  179. Sean says:

    Coach,

    I've missed the whole discussion until last nights thread. Your breakdown is solid right now. Based on playing time, hockey would be somewhere between baseball (more linear) and basketball (fib or something).

    To steal from LT, what about using NHL regular as the "line in the sand". This is a the scale applying fib once the player is established as an NHL regular.

    40*-HOF
    29-MVP,Strong MVP candidate
    21-Quality NHL regular
    16-Quality NHL regular player less than 70 games, Lottery Pick
    13-Above average NHLer
    11-Above average NHLer w/less 70 games, 1st Round pick
    10-NHL regular, 2nd round pick
    9-NHL regular <70 games
    —-starts here
    8-Replacement level NHLer
    7-Quality prospect
    6-Fringe NHL players, 3rd round pick
    5-AHL regular
    4-Callup
    3-Mid level prospect
    2-Marginal pro prospect
    1-Unknown quality

    * should be 42 but 40 is a better number

    PS Is this Tommy Salo for Tom Gilbert?

    8-Replacement level NHLer
    7-Quality prospect

  180. Doogie2K says:

    With Mason and Vokoun, Nashville was their third (I think third) organization.

    Vokoun’s second; he was drafted by Montreal in the mid-90s, got bombed one period against Legion of Doom-era Philly while Thibault was hurt, and went back to the minors until the expansion draft.

    As for Montreal, I went through their draft list and, of the people who played more than 40 NHL GP:
    1) Andre “Red-Light” Racicot (4/83, 1989) – Does exactly what it says on the tin. Next.
    2) Jose Theodore (2/44, 1994) – Up and down in Montreal, alternating between MVP and MEH, before stepping into the elevator shaft after the lockout. Now on his third organization in four years. Had a nice run with the Avs last year, until they ran into the Wings.
    3) Tomas Vokoun (9/226, 1994) – As noted above, had the one period in Montreal, giving up four goals to the Flyers before being buried. Good career elsewhere, but Montreal probably did fairly little for him.
    4) Mathieu Garon (2/44, 1996) – Some solid numbers in the pre-lockout era, but has been inconsistent since then. Played on some bad teams, which mitigates a bit of that, but has yet to establish himself as a bona fide #1.
    5) Jaroslav Halak (9/271, 2003) – Actually a pretty decent young goalie, all things considered. Some good AHL numbers that suggest starter potential (right around 0.930 all three partial seasons), but not in Montreal. Which brings us to…
    6) Carey Price (1/5, 2005) – Nothing’s set in stone yet, but he could be the home run they’ve been looking for since, well, December 2, 1995. Shaky playoff last year, but the kid’s young still. Dynamite in the ’07 WJHC.

    Other notable Habs ‘keepers:
    1) Jocelyn Thibault (1/10, 1993, QUE) – Part of the Patrick Roy bounty, part of the large second tier of good-enough goalies. Went on to backstop some terrible Chicago teams in the early 2000s. Fallen off the face of the earth after putting up some terrible numbers post-lockout.
    2) Jeff Hackett (2/34, 1987, NYI) – Acquired for Thibault (with various and sundry parts going each way). Credited with helping Jose Theodore establish himself. Started well after being acquired, but from 2000 on, he posted mediocre to terrible numbers backing up mediocre to terrible Habs teams. Eventually shipped off without fanfare in a three-way with Boston and SJ in 2003.
    3) Christobal Huet (7/241, 2001, LA) – Acquired as part of a three-way deal with Ottawa and LA that sent away Mathieu Garon and brought back Radek Bonk. Deemed expendable with the emergence of Price, he helped Washington to the brink of their first-round series in Philly last year. Signed for big dough in Chicago this year, but has been up and down (pulled from the Winter Classic after having six hung on him), with fellow albatross Khabibulin stubbornly retaining the reins.

    Their recent draft/trade history under the Gainey regime has been good, but this list is littered with mediocrity and inconsistency, or guys who simply had their day with other organizations. Montreal’s not one of Those Teams just yet.

    =====

    I watched the game on tape this morning, but wanted to pass on that, like the Edmonton crowd, we at the Saddledome were frankly more interested in the Canada game than the one in front of us (Calgary-Kootenay, normally a good rivalry matchup, but a bit of a snoozer this time). Gotta love having 9,000 people spontaneously cheer because of something they saw squinting at the luxury box TVs from across the rink.

    =====

    And now some thoughts on the game:
    –Five games ago, that Cole shot hits the post. This is the Erik Cole that was advertised in July, and it’s good to see he’s finally found the range. Who knew two struggling forwards on the same line was the way to go? ;)
    –When was the last time Souray split the D like that? Was he even old enough to shave?
    –I’m very curious what Dennis has the SCs at, because CBC’s numbers basically implied that every EDM shot was a five-bell chance, while 80% of DAL’s shots were limp efforts from the outside. Now, the Stars certainly weren’t generating chances the way we normally see, despite pissing Roli off enough for him to take a penalty, but geez, 14-5 at the halfway point of the game? That’s not right, is it?
    –That Barch kid can fight. Two draws against two guys who can throw ‘em. And speaking of, I’m so very happy that we might finally be able to retire the Huggy Bear moniker in favour of something manlier, like Zordon. Most of 46′s scraps this year have involved more boxing than Greco-Roman wrestling, which means he may yet be an effective deterrent. I also enjoyed the back-and-forth he and Grossman had with the big hits late in the first.
    –The shot blocking is still weak, but damned if that wasn’t some good down-ice pressure. They also seemed better positionally on the PK than they’ve been lately.

  181. Coach pb9617 says:

    Kris,

    Since you’ve done the work, the first report will be based on your numbers. Vic will trash you instead of me :)

  182. Coach pb9617 says:

    LT, the next GDT HAS to have a mention of Brodziak. If you watch last night’s game again, he was huge. I haven’t seen anything like the stuff he did since the good Peca.

    Based on last night’s performance alone, Brodziak won’t leave the NHL until he’s 38.

  183. relic says:

    coach, if you’re still looking back over this anymore…

    i’d plot your data somehow for the player rankings. pick a scale, say 0 to 10 then put marks down where you think each “rank” would be. for example if you think a first round pick is worth twice as much as a second round pick put it twice as high. follow the order for each category you have and you might end up with a something resembling a curve. if you put it into excel it’ll even take a run at the equation for you.

  184. Kris says:

    Coach:

    Ahhhhhh!!!!!!!!

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