Wild at Oilers, G48/08-09
This is “Butch” Schaefer who was born in Hinckley, Minnesota on November 7, 1911. He is pictured in the uniform of the Baby Ruth of the Chicago Amateur Hockey League (photo is from 1934 or 1935).
Schaefer had a brief NHL career (5 games) for the 36-37 Blackhawks and is one of the first Minnesota-born NHLers (but not the first). Minnesota has produced some tremendous talents: Frank Brimsek was born in Eveleth; Phil Housley was born in St. Paul; and Neal Broten was born in Roseau.
The Minnesota Wild and the Edmonton Oilers are in a flat-footed tie with the season 57% in the books. The Wild have made a couple of moves to address weakness recently (acquiring Robbie Earl and Dan Fritsche) which will no doubt (if history repeats) have a greater impact than expectations imply. Earl is a speedster best described as a “tweener” but the Wild have an ability to grind just these types of players into useful role players. Fritsche is a player who has size, grit and some skill. He was miscast in his first NHL stop and snowed under in NYC, but if he can avoid injury will be a useful player on the Lemaire assembly line.
The Oilers entered the second season on a nice run and fell flat against Buffalo the other night. Those blowout, crush-your-nuts games can either galvanize a team or send them in the other direction. As a fan, I’m hoping like hell they come out and kick the living daylights out of the Wild. They’re a better team than they showed the other night, their coach deserves a better effort on his behalf, and the money spent on this roster should deliver better results. However, this team is a coach killer.
Pure gaspipe.
lets go oilers! clap clap clap clap clap
Which team are we going to get tonight? Gritty team that willed itself two great wins before the break (on Hemsky’s back…), or the team that is afraid of its own collective shadow and poops the bed with perhaps too much regularity? I hope the former….
Go Oil!
I have no faith, we are all doomed. These Oilers have no ‘oiler’ in them, and it has been the oilerishness that has allowed them to outperform their talent in the past.
They are all useless and I hate them.
Unless they win and then I might just love them again.
In the category of “keen grasp of the obvious”, a win tonite would do a lot to stop the bleeding from Tuesday nite’s debacle.
A loss could make things go from bad to worse in a hurry with some of the road games coming up.
If ever a team needed a win, this is it for the Oilers. Time to see some desperation in their game from the get go.
Clap Clap.
BDHS: Too many claps. Two, not five.
Clap clap.
HBomb: BDHS is big game clapper. He knows when to turn the clapping up, when to go with the flow, and when to not clap at all. He’s laying it all on the line for the win tonight and I think we’ll get it, because a motivated BDHS is as clutch as they come.
At this point we have only one question left to answer in the GDT:
BDHS: Great Oilers blogger or greatest Oilers blogger?
quain: Horcoff would be a 1st line center if he could clap like that.
Hey, I haven’t posted a drink recipe lately, but I’ve got one for today.
1 cup boiling water
1 packet Neo Citran extra strength
2 tylenol 1 tablets
Cures a severe head cold, makes you drowsy and puts you to sleep before the Wild have a chance to.
To care, or not to care–that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The bad penalties and blown coverage of outrageous losses
Or to take arms against a sea of troubled management decisions
And by opposing end them.
Did Stan Weir ever quote Shakespeare?
Did Stan Weir ever quote Shakespeare?
Shakespeare quoted Stan Weir.
99% of Romeo and Juliet was a direct quote of Stan Weir recounting how he once messed with the heads of his girlfriends parents – Shakespear changed the ending though – like a poison could really kill Stan Weir – pfftt.
Hey guys, if you have any interest in how Qualcomp works, I just posted an essay in the Potulny thread – please take a look, I’m going to be bummed if that writeup goes to waste.
This thread wasn’t anything near pessimistic enough. I predict a 7-3 Oilers defeat.
(clap-clap)
Ok, so the next three games consist of:
Minnesota, with Backstrom, a team the Oilers hardly ever beat.
Nashville, a team that had a 10-game winning streak against Edmonton prior to the last meeting.
And
Chicago, the best team in the western conference among the mere mortal squads (i.e. not the Sharks or Wings), who have beaten up on the Oilers to the tune of a combined score of 14-2 in two games so far this year.
There is the potential for this team to go into an ugly, ugly tailspin if they can’t get back on the rails tonight after Tuesday’s debacle.
HBomb: It’s nowhere near as bad as you say. The Hawks have only outscored us 12-2, not 14-2 in dominating both games from start to finish. That glass isn’t 90% empty, it’s 10% full. (But it tastes like shit.)
Bruce: you sure? I was positive the first win was a 5-0 shutout and the second was the 9-2 Rexall Rectal Exam (version 1.0).
A look back says you are correct though. Still, 12-2, 14-2. Either way, it’s massive testicular suction when it comes to playing Kane, Toews and Co.
Good team, those Hawks. Hoping that they do the dance with Detroit at some point during the playoffs this year.
HBOMB are you desloving the Tylonols right in the Neo-Citran thats hard core. I was so sick last week I thought about crusing 2 Tylonols mixing them with a packet of Neo Citran and snorting them throgh a $20 bill.
I am going to miss the game tonight but when my GF goes the bathroom I will be checking in here on my Iphone, keep me entertained boys lord knows she wont. clap clap
You know for all the problems we focus in on ie can’t win face offs, not blocking shots on pk, guys being careless with the puck, Not so Steady Steve blasting the puck around the boards 14 times a game, none of it matters if Roli plays the way he has the last 3 starts. We’re sunk if this is what he gives them.
That being said I think they win a close one tonight 4-3 something in that range. clap clap
There is the potential for this team to go into an ugly, ugly tailspin if they can’t get back on the rails tonight after Tuesday’s debacle.
Isn’t this the point in the season where someone usually drags out the 92 points it takes to make the playoffs and concludes the Oilers aren’t going to make it? (I think there is a whole site devoted to this line of thinking somewhere.) OK, now that I brought it up, let me check … right, with 35 games left, the Oilers need to play around .600 to get 92 points, which is an uptick from what they have played the first half of the season. There you have it.
since they play like pussies… The song should be that annoying song Hot Cold by Katy something or other.
I want Clutterfucks head on a pole outside of Rexall. If I recall he said some shit in the papers.
I hope to see Stevie Mac draw in. I want some hits I want some jump.. I want something.
Rob Brown for love of mike please where a hat
HBOMB are you desloving the Tylonols right in the Neo-Citran thats hard core. I was so sick last week I thought about crusing 2 Tylonols mixing them with a packet of Neo Citran and snorting them throgh a $20 bill.
Sounds like the Raffi Torres special cold cure.
Better that than the Sean Avery version, which involves taking ColdFX tablets as suppositories.
HBomb, that is gold.
But seriously, stop making me laugh so hard I cry at work. People are talking…
HBomb that was priceless. Somehow that statement shoul dget to Jaques Lemaire.
I once heard Guy Lafleur remark that while he and Steve Shutt were scoring 60 goals a season, lemaire never wanted to get 50 (even though he was able), because he didn’t want the pressure. Years later, Lemaire pretty much shafted Guy’s career with the Habs.
I’m not much for drinking recipes, but it was once recommended to me that if you ever need a pick me up when you need to stay up late for exam cramming or whatever, just follow these steps:
1) Brew a cup of hot coffee.
2) Throw in a teabag, let it steep for 15 minutes.
3) Drink up.
I can vouch, from trying this, that you will not feel drowsy for a good long while. You may bounce around the house like a hummingbird having a seizure, but you’ll be too buzzed to notice.
Hbomb: That Raffi comment was gold
1 cup boiling water
1 packet Neo Citran extra strength
2 tylenol 1 tablets
Wait 15 minutes. Drop a shot of jager into glass and slam. Is that an HBomb? Surely there is a drink named HBomb that I’m missing somewhere…
I saw this hit Netvibes and thought that this would look like a combination of revelations and global warming writings.
Instead I get happiness. What. The. Frick.
Alarm, hate, unadulterated piss-your-pants-monsters-under-the-bed fear. That’s what this blog needs.
They’re watching you watching you watching you watching you.
The real question is who is going to pay for a PPV game against Minny?Hbomb’s suggestion for a sleep aid is a lot cheaper.
/1 cup boiling water
1 packet Neo Citran extra strength
2 tylenol 1 tablets
Wait 15 minutes. Drop a shot of jager into glass /
Why don’t you Pansified lot just find out what Milbury drinks??
[First, see if you can find a bottle of Five Star]
So this bit about trying 77 down lower on the powerplay will be interesting. I’m interested to see if that changes their setup at all, or if someone else will simply be playing the point.
I like the thought of putting him in better scoing position, but doesn’t that make us more vulnerable to short handed chances?
Schitzo: I appreciate the effort you put in to explain things. You confirmed what I thought to be true, or I should say, what I thought to be false.
The next question is if QualComp is flawed why does it get used so often to enshrine or cast shadow onto a player?
MacT’s lines, we’re watching you…clap clap
Watching your every move…
Gilbert on Forward, then on d,
Watch you blowin’ the lines when you’re making a scene
Oh Whirl, the blender goes,
Close the books, the nonsense blows us apart,
We wish there were still ties….
No Blender escape,
MacT’s lines, we’re watching you, clap clap.
Watching your every move…losing 3-2,3-2,3-2,3-2,3-2
The next question is if QualComp is flawed…
I’m not sure it’s entirely flawed. Using Schitzo’s example of Pahlsson’s numbers: the guy plays tough opposition, but gets torched relative to the rest of his team and scores less relative to the rest of the team. QualComp ranks him as easy competition, which is a reasonably legitimate marking: Pahlsson might lower how much you score, but when you step on the ice with him it seems pretty likely you’re going to win the GF/GA battle.
There’s probably room for improvement of the metric (factoring in QualComp for the player’s numbers when factoring QualComp for players playing against that player, going on forever…), but I think if you look at it with a large sample size and relative to other players on the same team, it’s still a useful metric and some of these corner cases are smoothed out. Maybe not something to base a Hall of Fame case on, but something to augment other analysis.
I think if you look at it with a large sample size and relative to other players on the same team, it’s still a useful metric and some of these corner cases are smoothed out
That’s pretty much where I draw the line too. You can’t compare player x to player y by saying x is 32nd in the league in QUALCOMP while y is 303rd, but you can say “x is first on his team among forwards in QUALCOMP, but y is only 7th on his team”.
Different coaches run their benches different. Most teams play power vs. power these days, but as long as you have the oddball cases like New Jersey and Anaheim playing the old-school checking line style against the other team’s best, there’s going to be limitation to what that metric tells us.
Just to re-iterate: I absolutely agree with many of Schitzo’s critiques, I just think you’re better not staring at it too hard. It pretty accurately represents what your eyes tell you when it comes to who is playing the tough guys and easy guys, even if it does it in a way that underrates guys like Pahlsson, and omits certain factor. If we started using smaller samples (like specific game QualComp) it’d be a near useless stat, but after a half-season you’re probably seeing something close to reality.
That’s kind of the pain with all stats though. I’m surprised we don’t have Quality of Points yet, weighting goals and assists based on the context they were scored. BIG GOALS should be accurately represented, obv.
Its true, I am clutch.
Big game big game big game.
And I’m playing hurt. Doesn’t matter. I always show up in the big games. Unless its a blowout. Then I lose interest.
clapclapclapclapclapclapclap
“QualComp ranks him as easy competition, which is a reasonably legitimate marking: Pahlsson might lower how much you score, but when you step on the ice with him it seems pretty likely you’re going to win the GF/GA battle.”
I just can’t agree with this, even in the slightest. Any metric that tells us Pahlsson is easy competition is flawed beyond recognition.
I’m not sure someone can classify Pahlsson or Madden or players of that ilk as isolated fallacies either. The error is residual. If Pahlsson’s numbers are flawed then so are the players that play against Pahlsson and then so are also the players that play against the players that play against Pahlsson and so on..
If I’m a coach I’m doing everything I can to get Hemsky away from Pahlsson, Kesler, Grier, Sharp, Burrows ect..
The next question is if QualComp is flawed why does it get used so often to enshrine or cast shadow onto a player?
Lack of understanding of the limitations?
If you split players into three classes as follows:
Datsyuks – All around monsters. They score a ton, and help deny the other team from scoring.
Huselius – They score a lot, but they give up just as much the other way
Pahlssons – they smother other team’s scorers, but have so little offence they’re still probably not breaking even
QualComp works fine for describing what it’s like to play against a Datsyuk (tough), and what it’s like to play against a Huselius (easy). It fails against the Pahlssons and Pecas of the world.
But keep in mind that QualComp saying that Pahlsson is “easy” to play against has the effect of LOWERING the QualComp of anyone playing against him.
[For example, if Pahlsson shut down Iginla in a playoff series, we might see Iginla's QualComp as -0.05, even though we know that's not easy minutes].
There’s no phenomenon that I’m aware of that would artificially inflate a player’s QualComp – it can only arise from playing against other team’s difference-makers.
So a high QualComp is probably genuine, and a valid statistic. On the other hand, a QualComp that appears too low might actually be suffering from “Pahlsson syndrome”. The changes I suggested previously would correct this.
Actually, there IS a fourth class of player – call them the Glencross. They have positive on-ice/off-ice differentials, because they outscore other team’s 4th liners.
Which means that anyone playing against the Stortini-Glencross-Brodziak line is playing against three guys with positive on/off ice +/-.
Which means that anyone playing against that line is getting credit for positive QualComp. Somehow I doubt Boogard should have a positive QualComp by playing against the Brodziak line.
[Note that the existance of a Glencross type player depends a LOT on how the coach line-matches. If the GlenX line was trapped against Iginla or Sakic, all of a sudden their +/- differential is going to nosedive and they'll be "weak" competition as expected].
Any metric that tells us Pahlsson is easy competition is flawed beyond recognition.
No, it’s just measuring a different kind of easy. He makes the ice low event and is tough to score on, but at the end of the day, if Hemsky’s line played Pahlsson’s line for 60 minutes, The Edmonton Hemskys would win every game.
Like I said, Pahlsson is a bit of a corner case, he (and his line) are zero offense, all defense, and it’s a valuable line, but I don’t think QualComp tries to measure that, it tries to measure who is outscoring and who isn’t. Usually, outscoring = strong player, getting outscored on = weak player. In the Pahlsson case it doesn’t work that way, but that’s why QualComp is an aggregate of every player played against, so a case like this gets lost in the ether.
And again, Schitzo is dead on, there are flaws; but the thing is no player is going to match up entirely against Pahlssons for 82 games, so at the end of the day you’re going to have a measure that maybe isn’t 100% accurate in how it gets there, but pretty well represents the totem pole.
Just take it as a basic metric that does a good job doing what it does, and don’t get too roped into specific numbers or cross-team comparisons.
Of course, if you see a player completely out of whack it should be pointed out so we know if it is doing the job accurately. But a cursory glance makes the Oilers look correct and has Pahlsson playing the toughest competition.
Quain makes a good point – there’s not a lot of Pahlssons or Glencross types out there, so over 82 games a lot of the problems can be hand-waved away. Still, QualComp isn’t gospel by any measure.
from the Oilers website:
LINEUP UPDATES: Ryan Potulny will get a chance to show his stuff, centering the second line between Robert Nilsson and Erik Cole… Liam Reddox drops to the fourth line where he will play with Steve MacIntyre and Kyle Brodziak… Dwayne Roloson gets the start in goal.
Oh, and an incredibly obvious example of the problem with considering Pahlsson to be “easy” to play against: Rob Neidermayer has an absolutely whopping -0.91 QualTeam, because by this metric Pahlsson and Moen are boat-anchor linemates. That’s just plain not right.
On colds: Fuck, this winter’s is a bad one. I had two different versions that lasted a week apiece. Started out as a chest cold and headache and I had shortness of breath while doing any physical activity and then after doing some shoveling I wound up with the classic congest head-cold. I Don’t like taking drugs unless I have to but eventually I resorted to taking Tylenol Extra Strength Nightime and pounding Neo-Citran as well. I’ve heard tell of people who don’t like Neo but I don’t understand it. What I do is mix it in a glass of cold water and then it’s like medicinal lemondade.
Not sure how the Oil come out tonight but if Roli plays like he has lately, it’s really not gonna matter.
We’ve got a huge 51 point logjam towards the middle of the pack but in terms of Edm they can:
- control their own destiny vs Minny with three of the remaining 5 HTH at Rexall.
- they GIH on CBJ and Van
- they have the wins lead on everyone but Min and as mentioned before, three of the last five vs Minny are at home.
Of course this is a sliding scale and changes day by day but you gotta start somewhere and right now the Oilers are in a good position out of the starting gate.
The loss of 89 hurts, though. He wasn’t getting a whole lot done but the puck was moving the right direction while he was on the ice though you could also argue he needs to be doing more considering he’s getting soft min while 10 slaves away.
Anyway, back to the point, it’s time for 12 to step up and take on a bigger role because he has three goals and five points and is +2 over his last 10 GP.
Now would be a great time for him to step up and help Cole carry the soft-minutes ball.
“Ryan Potulny will get a chance to show his stuff, centering the second line between Robert Nilsson and Erik Cole”
What the fuck is wrong with MacT?
Cogliano is 2nd amongst forwards in goals.
Cogliano is 3rd amongst forwards in points.
Cogliano is 2nd on the team in Even Strength points.
I’m going to explode.
Honestly, I think the lines are better balanced with 13 on the 3rd. I’m not hapyy with how shitty our 7-12 look, but a lot of that has to do with redox being there. Like the kid, but I don’t see him bringing enought to help our chances to win.
I also don’t get the unwillingness to play moreau with brodziak. Isn’t that an obvious pairing? especially with the guy who’s been your number two centre out, bump everyone up a slot…
in keeping with LT’s ‘Baby Ruth’ image at the top of the post, here’s hoping the Oilers put forth a ‘Wunderbar’effort tonight, and not a repeat of Thursday’s ‘Milk Dud’.
Any feeds besides Center Ice for tonite’s game since this is PPV? The only thing worse than listening to the Minn announcer’s is having your teeth pulled without novocaine.
Gary B: is the Oilers recent ability to kill penalties like the old days – outside of last game’s effort – nothing more than a “Mirage.”;)
“Honestly, I think the lines are better balanced with 13 on the 3rd.”
Playing Hemsky with Stortini makes our lines more balanced as well. Doesn’t mean it’s a good idea.
Cogliano is the most opportunistic player on the team; re: shooting percentage
Bruce did some work the other day and Ethan Moreau Moreau is last in the team in SCF/SCA differential.
We’re basically playing our best finisher with the player who generates the least amount of scoring opportunities – and that my friend is indefensible.
MacTavish does absolutely nothing to suggests he’s even an average coach besides sounding smart in interviews.
Last game against Buffalo MacTavish sent Stortini and Studwick out for a defensive zone draw even though he had last change. He makes those kind of elementary errors all the time. He’s the definition of bush league.
If Penner reads this thread he’s coming to the game tonight with chocolate on his face – guaranteed!
Everything I’ve seen this year, in the very brief stretches that it’s happened, suggests Cole and Cogliano make things happen when together. Pairing those two right now makes too much sense. But for some reason, MacT doesn’t do it.
And don’t get me wrong, I like Potulny and all….
If Penner reads this thread he’s coming to the game tonight with chocolate on his face – guaranteed!
As opposed to other nights, where he’s covered in turkey gravy instead.
I think there’s going be a lot of snickering going on in the away dressing room after the game.
Oh shit don”t tell me they”re playing tonight.
Listen up, guys, Oilers are a 7th or 8th place team right now.
I wish I was a rock star.
And I’m playing hurt. Doesn’t matter. I always show up in the big games. Unless its a blowout. Then I lose interest.
clapclapclapclapclapclapclap
BDHS: You are the one guy on the ‘sphere who I didn’t think would be infected with The Clap. Not this week, at least.
Fucking song has been hardwired in my brain for nigh on a fortnight now.
clap clap fucking clap
Schitzo:
Interesting stuff, but I do still think Qual Comp. is, as you seem to admit in places, a very useful stat when read in the right way.
Of course, Qual Comp. doesn’t say much about a guy like Pahlson, but it’s not really supposed to; in the simplest terms, it’s supposed to differentiate the guys who can really score from the guys who can only score when they’re out against rookies and cherry pickers. (Okay, that’s hyperbolic, but you get the point.)
Since most first lines across the league see about the same amount of time against Pahlson-like players, which will be a small percentage of their overall TOI, the existence of players like Pahlson doesn’t affect the value of Qual Comp., since we rate players Qual Comp. relative to each other. That is, as long as the few checkers like Pahlson in the league throw off everyone’s Qual Comp. equally -or close to equally- they don’t impact the usefulness of Qual Comp at all.
It would be interesting to see if teams in divisions with more Pahlson-like players have unexpectedly different Qual Comp. numbers, and it might force the stat guys to take a new look at Qual Comp. (Without doing this work, I doubt you’ll convince anyone as your argument is more speculative than it is decisive.)
Okay, so to be clear, you want to see 12-13-26 playing the soft minutes and then give 18-21-78 the second hardest minutes? Look, I like 21 too, but I wouldn’t give him that kind of a jump in responsibility. Or would you rather have 12-13-26 taking other set of toughs tonight?
Honestly though, the more I look at the lineup, the more I think it doesn’t matter. Quite honestly, right now, we have an almost first line, a second line, a fourth line, and a scrubs line. We don’t have the depth we need to win.
I look at the NHL scoring leaders and Zach Parise is 7th.
And Oilers ‘stole’ Pouliot, and mister noi points.
You have to laugh. Or else you’ll cry.
Oh Hunter, don’t you need to go pee on a tree somewhere?
Unleaded: An “almost” first line?
The numbers say otherwise. I’ll re-state: top line isn’t the issue with this team.
2nd line’s been up and down but was gaining some traction thanks to chemistry between 89 and 26. Third line is a gong-show, thanks to MacT’s refusal to admit 18′s a sinkhole AND the absence of 34.
Everyone healthy, if they shake it out like this, they’re in good shape:
27-10-83
12-89-26
13-78-34
18-51-21
EXT: Two of 85/33/46
Something’s up. I keep hearing trade rumors about the Oilers from all over. Seriously.
Now I know numb nuts at his blog is talking about Bouwmeester and that may be but I’m also hearing about Bill Guerin.
So, not to create a silly buzz when there isn’t one, but has anyone else heard anything? Could the Oilers be about to make TWO deals?
Lowetide: Look at Oiler history since the lockout. Lowe’s MO has been to do deals in pairs, no?
August 2005: Deals for Pronger and Peca within 18 hours
January 2006: Same day deals for Tarnstrom and Spacek
March 2006: Gets Roloson, then lands Samsonov within the next 24 hours
February 2007: Does the Bergeron/Grebeshkov deal, then does the Smyth deal nine days later.
June/July 2008: June 29th, gets Visnovsky. 36 hours later, gets Cole for Pitkanen AND does Torres for Brule.
Don’t know if Tambellini will operate the same way, but there’s a trend here. Hell, even if you look pre-lockout, Lowe did such a thing before (trade deadline 2003 and the Dvorak and Isbister/Torres deals).
“Okay, so to be clear, you want to see 12-13-26 playing the soft minutes and then give 18-21-78 the second hardest minutes?”
Unleaded:
I would use Brodziak at 3C.
To me Brodziak at 3C makes as much sense as Hemsky as the top RW.
I’m actually starting to believe Brodziak isn’t being used at 3C out of spite because Lowe didn’t sign Reasoner.
It would be interesting to see if teams in divisions with more Pahlson-like players have unexpectedly different Qual Comp. numbers, and it might force the stat guys to take a new look at Qual Comp.
Yeah, that’s where my example of a 7-game playoff series makes sense. If Iginla or Thorton gets a steady diet of Pahlsson, it will do funny things to their QualComp.
I’m not inclined to do the work, but your idea of some divisions being affected more than others certainly makes sense. Where it appears to have the largest effect is QualTeam, since you have 82 games of effect.
Looking at guys with 20+ games played, the range of QualComp right now is 0.12 (Lidstrom) to -0.25 (Parros).
Compare that to the QualTeam spread of 0.87 to -0.91, and it’s clear that the odd effects are cumulative.
As you say, it has use in a lot of ways, and I personally like it. I just don’t think people realize the inherent limitations.
Well
Eklund is pushing the Bouwmeester rumour like crazy.
He’s never been right before,
I guess there’s always a first time…
Nah
Traktor: Or they could use Pouliot as 3C. Either way, the thing that makes very little sense to me is any scenario where you see Pouliot and Brodziak (i.e. two guys who can actually win the odd faceoff) on the same line, while Cogliano loses 2/3rds of the draws he takes as a center.
I posted above what I’d like to see with everyone healthy, but this is what I actually think we’ll end up having to endure:
27-10-83
12-89-26
18-13-34
78-51-(one of 46/85/33/21)
Before the season, I wouldn’t have minded that setup, but after seeing that Moreau’s gone over the cliff and Cogliano (while having a very good year) has a future in the NHL as a winger…..well, you get the idea.
Besides, putting aside Moreau’s bloated salary for a second, IF you have 18 on LW with either Pouliot OR Brodziak at C…that’s the making of a pretty damn good fourth line if you ask me.
And yes, this could all be a middle finger from MacT to Lowe for his refusal to re-sign Reasoner or bring in a reasonable facsimile by now.
If Eklund’s suggesting it, it won’t happen.
He’s saying Penner PLUS another top six forward for another defenseman? Just think what the roster would look like….there would have to be another trade to accompany that, otherwise we’d have a top six costing approximately 27.5 million dollars next year, based on estimates of Bouwmeester at 6.5 million per and Grebeshkov for 3 million per.
I haven’t heard the Bouwmeester rumor but the Guerin rumor is out there and there are sometimes rumblings before the quake (Peca and Pronger in the 24 hours before they happened).
Stauffer is pretty connected it’ll be interesting to hear if he has anything tonight.
HBomb:
Pouliot works too. I think Brodziak is a little stronger and physical which is why I like him over Pouliot.
I have no problems with Cogliano at 3C but you have to give him someone to play with. Pisani is quality but Moreau just doesn’t cut it.
Maybe switch Nilsson and Pouliot?
27 10 83
78 89 26
12 13 34
18 51 46
Moreau basically plays exactly how Glenx does so he probably wouldn’t fit well with 51 and 36. (shakes head)
Maybe switch Nilsson and Pouliot?
27 10 83
78 89 26
12 13 34
18 51 46
Could work, but I think 13-78-34 is a more capable trio in terms of being able to take on some of the secondary tough minutes. That, and I just prefer Cogliano on the wing.
Another option would be 13-89-26 with Nilsson as the LW for Pouliot and Pisani (two guys who I’d consider more “finishers” than “passers”, albeit not elite ones).
Several ways to skin a cat, but this team takes a huge leap forward when MacT admits that the best place for Moreau is 4LW.
First period’s over in the Falcons game. And wouldn’t you know it, the birdies have 4 measly shots. Seems the farm team is taking cues from the big club and not showing up for 1st periods. Dubnyk’s made 13 saves, and Trukhno returns to the lineup.
I don’t think you can assume that the trading in pairs thing is a pattern that will apply with Tambo. Why? the first trade he made happened more than a week ago and we haven’t seen anything since.
If another trade happens, you can try to string them together, like Hbomb did with the Smyth and Grebs deals, but I think that’s pushing it.
Unleaded: Lowe made “singular” deals such as the acquisition of Pitkanen deal. It’s not hard and fast it happens that way, but there’s a tendency for this team to make moves in bunches.
I’m at the point where I don’t want to give up a significant piece for a rental (i.e. Schremp or worse only). If they’re making a trade, it better be for something to help them beyond this year. Otherwise, try and make the dance with what they’ve got in the cupboard and get the guys some at-bats in pressure situations.
It could be that the trade rumors have heated up because of the last 10-2 lose. While Hbomb is right Lowe does make trades in bunches he also makes them alone (Garon, Glenncross, Pitkanen).
I can’t believe the Bouwmeester rumor, because we would have too many D (which is a pattern, think ’06), but more importantly Florida would not have enough to make the playoffs.
I like to have Gurien (make our top 6 better and add depth to the left side), and Bonk (always wanted him since he played for Ottawa). Please say it is Bonk.
I’m not saying that 51 would be a bad choice there, but then our 4th line is actual trash. And I’m pretty sure MacT knows it. We’ve all talke about him hauling the dregs this year. Is the third line better with Brodz there? probably. But is the tea better? There, I’m not convinced.
I do think that MacT knows something about played development, and I think he’s got to be playing 51 there for a reason. That reason, as far as I can see, could be to make sure he gets used to heavy lifting, wihtout support. That would explaing the shitty line mates, and the reason he’s not on 3. Individual development, and holding the 4th together seem to make sense to me, and then giving him pk time and extra draws.
As far asPouliot goes, if he plays C, that’s fine, but its still a question of how do the toher pieces fit. And I’m still not convinced that the team will be head and sholders better with Cogs playing with Cole. And I’ve said many times here and elsewhere that I want them to play together because of the speed they both have. But I’m not convinced that having him between 12 and 26 is the right move right now.
LT where are you getting this Guerin stuff from? Usually a rumor like that is all over HF but I can’t find it…all I see is the Eklund/JBo thread.
“I don’t like Pouliot at centre. Faceoffs are an issue, the added positional responsibility can be an issue. (Potulny) is an average skater, but he’s got good hands and a real head for the game, from what I’ve seen.”
– Craig MacTavish
I was sure there would be a thread somewhere about those comments which appeared in today’s Edmonton Journal, but if there was I have missed it. Hunter did another drive-by of Pouliot and HBomb mentioned faceoffs, but what about what MacT’s remarks? Have raised it on my blog but thought I would bring it here where it’s sure to get some discussion, given that LT is a charter member of the MP Fan Club.
Also, has anybody got a surefire link for tonight’s game? Flames vs. Preds just doesn’t cut it as an alternative.
Thanks in advance.
Let's face it, if we get Bouwmeester, then there'd be a follow-up trading one of Souray/Vish/Gilbert. Since Souray has a nmc, it won't be him. That is, unless he's smart & wants to get out of here.
I'm all for shipping Penner's fatass right out of here. For that matter, I'd love to see BUtcher Billy Guerin back here, even if he's a little long in the tooth. I loved his play here – that's the kind of guy we need. A young Billy Guerin.
If Penner is going is going in a trade, then Guerin may be coming in a trade to replace him till the end of the season, and Hossa coming next summer.
Not predicting, just saying.
Wild speculation mode ON:
Penner and Grebeshkov for JayBo.
Schremp for Guerin.
You know, It might not be a bad move to bring someone with an ‘oiler’ feel to this team. Guerin was not here that long, but in many ways he feels like an Oiler to me. This room is a little devoid of that right now.
Hemsky is a gangsta: Two sources who pass along things from time to time. Some have been wrong others have been correct (usually with a slight change). Anyway it’s out there so doubt I’m the only one who’s heard it.
Bruce: If we’re talking about guys who shouldn’t be taking faceoffs we might want to bring up Cogliano. I remain a fan who appreciates Pouliot’s efforts.
Bruce: I thought I’d real all the Oilers content on the Journal’s site but I must have missed that. Where’s the link to the full story?
Those comments seem like a whole load of shit to me. I’m on the record as liking 21 but you’re telling me he’s got more of a head for the game than a fellow who’s played close to 100 games and has a low GAON/60? I Can’t say that MacT isn’t a 78 guy because Pouliot ends up in the top nine of EVTOI all the time while say a guy like 51 doesn’t. But this is either MacT breaking out the old Pouliot whip OR it’s another smack towards MGMT for not possessing a real secondary tough min pivot to augment the work of 10.
Which is something I’m pissed about as well. LT talks about balance all the time and he’s right again about this season. 13 looks like a puck carrying winger to me – just like how 83 does on the first line – but if macT’s playing him as the secondary tough min pivot that means he’s got no plans to put 51 or 78 in that role.
Outside of the one game 78 played with 18-26 and the three our four games 51 did it with the same winger combo.
LT: you seem to have sprung this trade thing on us all of a sudden! Guerin makes sense because he likes snowmobiling and he’s thrived in a communist regime in the past. Plus, Lowe’s dealt with the Isles a couple of times and with Snow a little under two years ago.
Oh No, the Minnesota announcers are calling this a must win game for the Wild – how can that be? Its a must win for the Oilers!
I wouldn’t kick if those two trades happened. However, I don’t think we could afford Hossa, especially with the cap coming down. Besides money, why would he come here anyway? This franchise redefines the word “mediocrity” as each passing season goes by.
Another rumour is on IOF,
Speeds says Briere
re: Briere
Just what we need – another runt for the litter.
Two game links
Minnisota Broadcast
Second Mini Broadcast – seems to freeze every once in a while
Boston Garden-style power blip at the arena in Tampa. Hilarious.
Oh, Goilers.
Maybe the Oil will move 27 and put 13 in the catbird seat alongside 10-83.
Then the Oilers look for a guy to play with 89 or they bring back 26.
51 or a vet down the middle plus 34 to play the tough min.
Briere? A runt with a ridiculous contract.
And where is Guerin going to play? You have Hemsky, Cole and Pisani on the RW already. I could see them signing him in the summer to replace Cole but otherwise not a lot of sense.
And Bouwmeester needs to be signed first and foremost if they do make a move for him. He’s not going to sign in Florida apparently but how do they trade their best player when they are trying to make the playoffs – that would kill the franchise, no?
I don’t buy any of those as making sense for one reason or another.
There was a kid on the blue line during the anthem with the same soul less (evil?) eyes as Gator.
Holy bejeebus, what a way to send a message to your team by Staios. I shall return to my cave.
//And where is Guerin going to play? You have Hemsky, Cole and Pisani on the RW already.//
Guerin has played LW, particularly during his time in Boston, with Joe Thornton, and Glen Murray and/or Mike Knuble on the RW.
Well, at least they are putting a bit of effort in!
Real creative play from Hemsky leads to a goal there.
Horcoff wins a faceoff and well, you know the rest.
Well, this is MUCH different than the follow up to their last blowout game…good sign in my book.
I’m enjoying the game in RodVision tonight
Its STUPENDOUS!
Bruce: I thought I’d real all the Oilers content on the Journal’s site but I must have missed that. Where’s the link to the full story?
Dennis: I tried to find it on-line to post a link but I just found a truncated version covering the Potulny angle but leaving out the comments. So I just copied the quote out of the actual paper.
(LT) Bruce: If we’re talking about guys who shouldn’t be taking faceoffs we might want to bring up Cogliano. I remain a fan who appreciates Pouliot’s efforts.
(Dennis) I’m on the record as liking 21 but you’re telling me he’s got more of a head for the game than a fellow who’s played close to 100 games and has a low GAON/60? … But this is either MacT breaking out the old Pouliot whip OR it’s another smack towards MGMT for not possessing a real secondary tough min pivot to augment the work of 10.
I deliberately posted that quote sans my own opinion (here)
to see how others would react.
This what what I wrote at Oil Droppings:
It’s hard not to read part of that as a thinly-veiled criticism of Pouliot’s head for the game. But in response to the specific criticism, I would point out that Pouliot’s faceoff percentage of 47.6 is less than great, it’s fully 10 percentage points better than that of Andrew Cogliano (37.5). So Cogs must have a big edge in “positional responsibility”. I do know Pouliot has a pretty good record as a low event player regardless of whether he’s playing centre or wing, currently ranking fourth among Oiler forwards at 2.30 GA ON/60, while Cogliano is well down the charts at 2.73. As for Potulny, I guess we’ll find out.
Two things I’m pretty sure about are that Coach MacTavish has a v-e-r-y good understanding of what a 3C’s positional responsibility is; and that he’s pretty ticked to not have a veteran to deploy in that important role.
You fellows are all over it!
Nice to see some try early from the guys. Hopefully they can keep it up for 60 minutes tonight.
And right after the goal, Moreau takes a penalty. Sometimes I think I could set my watch by this stuff.
Haven’t listened to a full game on radio in awhile. This is going to turn out to be the one time I don’t order the PPV and it ends up being a great game. Just watch.
And does anyone think I should mix vodka and Neo Citran?
Nice counter attack by Cole on the PK there … curious to know, Dennis, do you rule that a scoring opp?
Moreau wins a faceoff? Imagine that.
Well, looks like MacIntyre’s going to get a second shift.
Flatten that fucker.
Why is Strudwick playing? I didn’t watch the last game but was Smid really the worst d-man?
Sounds like Rod Phillips wants Nick Schultz drawn and quartered for what he just did to Hemsky. Can anyone verify the dirtiness, somewhere on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is “Kesler” and 10 is “Tootoo”?
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK
We’re losing 75% of 50/50 battles.
I want to see MacIntyre used in a pure goon role.
Tonight, grab Schultz and beat the shit out of him. And then do the same to Tootoo on Sunday.
I would say that is about a 7 (Adam Graves)
Rod Phillips: “Someone’s gotta take off Mikko Koivu’s head”.
Fuck it, ordering the game halfway through the first.
I’m also in the dark on the smid/struds issue, whats going on?
I didnt think it was that terrrible of a hit,just a bad fall by Hemsky. It was one of those ones that take place about 4 feet from the boards.
H-bomb:
Maybe a 4? I’m sure it wasn’t exactly meant to be a massive boarding call, but he could have let up too.
for all of you listening to radio, the game is available online. I posted it above, but here it is again.
http://atdhe.net/live-tv.php?i=11453625
HBomb I was worried you might jinx this compelling television and there is Hemsky on the ice for PP. All is still glorious on this broadcast.
Fuck it, ordering the game halfway through the first.
Why bother? This website has a running ad above the feed for women’s lingerie.
http://atdhe.net/live-tv-2.php?i=729
It’s win-win!
ATDHE works on Safari too.
I am in the dark about Smid/Studs. But I can’t find 5 but I see 43 playing with 24. Why? Why?
Interesting comment by Rod – “Nilsson’s been absolutely dreadful this period”.
Have to agree.
Oilers have had some luck going on in this shift. A young team that runs around in its own end often equals GA. Good on them (and Roloson) for keeping it 1-0 there.
Now I remember why I hate Minnesota.
A bunch of phony-tough dirty fucking Frenchmen.
Ok, this Clutterbuck guy is a player, BUT….I just saw the replay of the Staios hit and ensuing fight.
What’s the point of having an instigator penalty at all if they’re not going to call it there? Seriously….
Holy snipe batman.
Moreau with a beauty.
AIR MOREAU HAS TAKEN OFF!
It’s too bad the fans haven’t forgiven Moreau yet. Listen to all of those boos.
Go MAC!
That tilt left me wanting….well, Stortini.
yaaaaaaawwwwwwwwwwwwwn
Macintyre and Boogaard sounds like such a good time, but that was a yawner.
Staios smoking Bouchard? Someone’s hypnotised our old guys and convinced them it’s 1999.
Ethan Moreau sniper? Or Niklas Backstrom sieve? You decide.
IF I fought Bougaurd the fight would be WAY more exciting
Only if you like dangling eyeballs.
Rod Phillips thinks we’re playing the Minnesota North Stars. I’m telling you! The old guys are channeling their past selves tonight!
I wonder if the Wild would move Burns and Clutterbuck for Schremp? I guess they would probably have to throw in a few picks coming back our way too?????
Clap Clap
IF I fought Bougaurd the fight would be WAY more exciting
Only if you like dangling eyeballs.
Hey, LT, I will have you know that I am about 290 Lbs, and instead of one of those wimpy 6 pack stomachs, I have managed to achieve one giant Ab muscle, big enough to rest a beer on.
First period faceoffs:
Horcoff 3-2, 60%
Brodziak 3-2, 60%
Moreau 1-0, 100% (!)
Potulny 1-0, 100%
Cogliano 1-5, 17%
Pouliot 0-0, ? %
Totals 9-9, 50%
oooooh man, for those of you watching the Minni broadcast, I was hoping he would say Elisha Cuthbert
The question to Clutterbug (or whatever his name is) was “Name one celebrity that you would like to date”
Taking a second look on the Moreau goal, I swear to god Cogliano is offside when he brings that puck in.
Hey Dennis, how does 5-4 Wild sound for scoring chances?
Someone must’ve parked a zamboni behind the FSNorth media truck.
Rod still calls a damn exciting game
But, there’s also a lot of:
“the puck,
over the Minnesota blue line,
and its scooped up by…the Minnesota goalie.”
Cole is penalty drawing magic. I don’t understand how he does it.
Bruce: Yes, i did give the Oil a scoring opp on the 26 PK chance.
And I had the scoring opps as 7-6 Oil.
That Orr is pretty good.
Say good night, Nik!
I call 10-2 for the Oilers?
Why is Minnesota playing like the Jan 27th, 2009 Oilers?
Now to see if the Wild step up to ensure Harding takes the loss.
Have to maintain Backstrom’s “unbeaten” record after all…
My word that’s a terrible PP following up the PP that saw them score. I mean really.
I really like this Lubo guy.
Backstrom chased for the third straight time at Rexall. Can we please hear the end of how he owns the Oilers?
WHen’s the last time you saw a goal from a D like the one 71 scored?
That’s an old basketball goal: you follow your intial shot because you know best where the rebound might go.
But I am shocked anytime any player can go unmolested through the forest to collect the rebound; doubly shocked when it’s a D; immeasurably shocked when the Wild team allows it.
Dennis: Grebs got a goal like that a while back, I think it might have been against Calgary?
Wow, I just tuned into the game and 3-0 Oilers to Wild?
Oh well, at least I missed the 10 goal drubbing in the last outing =).
So I just got home from picking Mom up and checked the score in the game. It seems that the NHL’s score page is broken or something, because it says 3-0 Oilers over the Wild in the 2nd. Must be upside-down.
@Uni: You too, eh?
I’m sure glad Harding didn’t get the start.
Nice play by 83 there; too bad it wound up between 10′s legs.
I like this Cole guy.
After 6 minutes I think I can be sure the score is correct. Nice. Now watch me jinx it and Minnesota pulls another 3 goal comeback like they did last season =(.
The graphic says the shots are 13-1 Oilers after 12 minutes of the 2nd.
Seems like they’re responding. Damn.
Why is Reddox on the 10-83 line? I haven’t made it through much of the thread.
@Doogie That was a first for this game. Didn’t see Penner get hurt at all.
Bertuzzi v. Tootoo on the big screen. Hard to pick a favourite there. Tootoo was carrying the puck through the neutral zone and just ran over Bertuzzi, but once they got it on the bigger man held his own. Buttugly went to the box, Tootoo to the room; maybe an instigator, maybe an injury.
AWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW, ROLOSON!
(clap-clap)
Nilsson, Cogliano, and Pouliot on the break? I love all three of them but they’re not exactly the hands team.
Nilsson needs to fire the puck some day. Might be easier to score that way.
@Cory: That makes sense; I didn’t recall seeing 27 at all so I figured he was either hurt or tossed.
AAAAAAAnother pass into a skate. Damn that was close.
Ok, explain this to me again: how exactly did we get Visnovsky for Stoll and Greene?
Eberle getting interviewed at the intermission.
Positive: since the WJC, I bet he gets a lot more, umm, “clam”.
Negative to this: he plays and lives in Regina.
By some metrics, Greene and Stoll aren’t bad.
A statistical methodology for ranking players’ intangibles, eh?
I don’t think “intangible” means what he thinks it means.
Ok, explain this to me again: how exactly did we get Visnovsky for Stoll and Greene?
At first I thought it was because of a rebuild mode and young players and not wanting to pay him that much coin and not winning anything in his ‘window’.
After the contracts they gave Greene and Stoll, it was to fill their need for a 2nd line/tough minute centre and a shutdown D-man I guess?
All 6 guys on the ice get a HUA for giving up a breakaway at the end of a penalty with a 3-0 lead FFS. I didn’t hear Roli slap his stick, but whether that was Dwayne not paying attention or Bruce I can’t say for sure.
Some nice hockey from Nilsson that period.
Greene and Stoll’s contracts combined are nearly identical to Visnovsky’s alone. $5.6 MM cap hit for the two of them for the next 4-5 years.
By some metrics, Greene and Stoll aren’t bad.
Like this one:
Stoll +7
Greene +4
Visnovsky +4
Fwiw
Nilsson maybe starting his annual drive to save his job?
hbomb – clam? ha!
The Minnesota broadcast has scoring chances as 9-6 for the Oilers after two periods. Is this in the same neighbourhood Dennis?
I’m not even joking about this but sometimes the only way you can feel the least bit good about this org is the way they treat Joey Moss.
Just seeing that piece and watching all the boys hang out with him and teaching him various handshakes and stuff, sorta makes you feel like you’re at least wasting your time cheering on a decent bunch of guys.
That bowling segment was awesome, BTW. Seeing Joey dissing Schremp on the handshake was magic:) Also, him and Penner both doing the old hair-smooth off the handshake.
Heartwarming stuff for this old cynic:)
About the game, oilers outchanced the Wild 9-1 in that frame.
Oh god here we go BRING US DANY SABOURIN.
Amazing what it takes for this team to put me on suicide watch. And I’m out of liquor.
Boy, that save on Nolan was important for my emotional psyche if nothing else. Two goals in the first two minutes would have had me jumping angstfully.
Faceoffs that period:
Horcoff 5-6, 45%
Potulny 0-1, 0%
Brodziak 1-2, 33%
Cogliano 4-0, 100%
Totals: 10-9, 53%
The joy of microstats.
Dennis, the broadcast had it at 9-6 for the whole game. They also had little to nothing for the Wild in the second so that part is consistent. You would have it as 16-7 overall I take it, so it’s telling a similar story, but you’re certainly more liberal than they are.
L. Bob, maybe you should getting something to smooth out that bi-polar thing you have going there…and I don’t mean alcohol haha =).
Is there seriously a guy on the Wild named Ovetski? That sounds like the fake name that a video game company without the NHLPA license would use to represent Ovechkin.
So what does Strudies bring to the table? For a ‘defensive’ defenseman he has 0 hits and 1 block shot. Smid at least hits, oh, and he can skate and pass better.
I’d say 5 is hurt or he’s close to being dealt. I mean that third pairing has been getting outchanced for awhile now so on the one hand the kid’s recent play doesn’t make him exempt from a benching.
but, if you aren’t willing to let him play through his mistakes during his third full season when a guy like 43 is the alternative, then i think that’s telling.
I guess 27 is hurt?
You’ve got to be kidding me. How does Nilsson get a penalty for that?
Bobby Nilsson takes a penalty for hitting Derek Boogaard.
That’s… hard to do.
Doogie: That caught my ear too, given how he sounds like the love child of Alex Ovechkin and Wayne Gretzky. Peter Olvecky, or so the event summary says … never ‘eard of ‘im.
You knew that was coming. Didn’t quite picture it that way though.
Roli makes me nervous.
Ah, I see, it’s “Olvecky”, pronounced “Ol-vet-sky.”
Odd that they get Olvecky right, but can’t get Zidlicky, which ends the same damned way.
fucking Boogaard.
he may be big as a house, but what an ugly skater.
he skates like a guy riding on top of another guy.
Nilsson
Boarding call
Boogaard
Three things put together in an unexpected fashion.
Well, that was fun.
Awesome, it’s worse than Ovetski, it’s Ovechky!