That’s Slava Trukhno wearing number 13 in a game from December of this year.
Trukhno is a player who I’ve followed since his name was called at the draft and have had high hopes for as a potential NHL player down the line.
He had a slow start to this season (I nicked him in the December top 20 because of it) but as time goes by I’m wondering just how much of this season might be either a team slump or a change in offensive style as opposed to a complete breakdown by a specific player.
Here are a few numbers comparing the two seasons:
- 07-08 Falcons: 214 goals in 80 games, 2.68GF per game
- 08-09 Falcons: 111 goals in 49 games, 2.27GF per game
That’s quite the slump (about 15% if my math is right) and if the trend continues Springfield will score 32 fewer goals season over season. They weren’t the 1984 Oilers to begin with, and a prospect running in place in terms of boxcar numbers would actually be progressing at some level.
Let’s run Trukhno’s boxcars:
- 07-08: 64gp, 14-21-35 .547ppg
- 08-09: 31gp, 3-14-17 .548ppg
Statistically it’s top dead center but we should view it as an improvement considering it’s 15% more difficult to drive in runs this season in Springfield. Correct?
Let’s look a little deeper. Here are Trukhno’s situational stats:
- 07-08 EV: 64gp, 5-11-16 .250ppg
- 08-09 EV: 31gp, 1-7-8 .258ppg
- 07-08 PP: 64gp, 9-10-19 .296ppg
- 08-09PP: 31gp, 2-7-9 .290ppg
- 07-08Shots: 94 in 64 gp, 1.47 per game
- 08-09Shots: 51 in 41gp, 1.24 per game
A season ago, Trukhno had 35 points on a team that scored 214 goals which means he was “in on” 16.3% of the team offense. This season he has 17 points on a team that has scored 111 goals, making his 15.3% in 08-09 a slight decrease.
So, with all of that as a backdrop, I have two questions:
- If you were to estimate Trukhno’s offensive growth (if any), what would a reasonable number be at this point?
- Gabriel Desjardins estimates that an AHL player would take 45% of his minor league offense to the show. How much should I increase the estimate with Trukhno playing in such a defensive league?