Oilers at Sharks, G57/08-09

This is Mike Grier. When he played for the Oilers, Grier was a very effective 3rd line winger who often played on a line with Todd Marchant and Ethann Moreau. Grier could score 20 goals one season, 9 the next, penalty kill and was never involved in a no-hitter.

I liked him fine.

Tonight, Grier’s San Jose Sharks return home after a bumpy east coast road trip. They may be suffering from jet-lag or they may be looking for someone to Econoline Crush.

One of the positives for Edmonton these days is that Hemsky is doing his Guy Lafleur act and creating about 1,000 scoring chances a night. One of the negatives is that they’re playing Dwayne Roloson into the ground and at this point the Garon trade looks like one of David Staples’ errors.

Not a must win tonight, but if they do get a W and then can win against Dallas…….

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.

367 Responses to "Oilers at Sharks, G57/08-09"

Newer Comments »
  1. hunter1909 says:

    Since I predicted a 5 point road trip….this one looks like either a loss or an OT loss.

    This team is freaking insane. They lose when they’re supposed to win, and the reverse. Little wonder most of us Oiler fans are completely out to lunch.

    Hemsky really has turned into a star. Horcoff, while I’ll never in a million years say he’s anything close to a first line center(I grew up after all watching Messier as a second line center LOL, is a cool player, when he’s not ineffective. Penner, for all of his bad press, I always liked; probably one of the most intelligent players in hockey, and that big body all but guarantees him exactly the type of career that he desires, since anytime he feels like it he can turn into Todd Bertuzzi mark 2.

    Grier I’m not so sure about. He played on those lunchpail teams that scored like 8 goals apiece during the regular season, met the Stars in the post season and usually ended up bitch slapped to wherever. I’m surprised he’s still in the game, actually.

    Roloson needs to be played into the ground, after all, the coach hates rookie goalies, lol.

  2. DBO says:

    So do we go with the kid tonight? Run him out there in a game we should lose and hope he shines (like he did a few times at the start of the year).

    A few things from last night. Peckham looked much better, and i like that he didn’t hesitate to jump in to defend his goalie (something we’ve been lacking). And Smid is gaining a ton of confidence and looks like the offensive skating dman we thought we got in the Pronger deal.

    Eric Cole can be dealt whenever they get a good deal. he’s a solid player, but there’s no way we resign him, and i don’t think he makes enough of a difference. especially since when Pisani comes back he becomes somewhat expendable.

    The top line continues to be solid, and if we got a goal scorer for the 2nd line we could run 2 decent top lines and one would always get gravy minutes.

  3. quain says:

    I think Smid is never going to be an offensive defenseman, but it’s pretty clear that he has the upside to be ‘Souray without the shot,’ maybe not the best pedigree, but Souray has a pretty good knack for getting the puck, making a small move and getting out of trouble in the defensive zone.

    Another way to look at it is ‘Steve Staios with clearing ability.’

  4. Steve says:

    This team is freaking insane. They lose when they’re supposed to win, and the reverse.

    There’s some truth to that, for sure, but your timing’s a little odd: the Oilers are on a three game winning streak, with two of those coming against teams below them in the standings, and one of them against a team in the middle of a terrible slump. Before that, they got their asses handed to them by a team well above them in the standings.

    In fact, with the exception of Montreal, the Oilers’ last eight wins have all come against teams below them in the standings.

  5. Steve says:

    Also, today’s Fun Fact that Probably Isn’t News to the Well-Informed People on this Site, but Which I Found Surprising: Ales Hemsky is sitting at twelfth in the league in points per game among players to have played at least thirty games.

  6. Coach pb9617 says:

    MacTavish says that Pisani won’t be on the ice this trip because of an X-ray that the team took. I hope he means MRI. When Pisani comes back, he’s slotting into Cogs’ RW, and that will be a jolt for Cogs. Those two always look great on the ice, though there isn’t much to base that on this year.

    Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
    Moreau-Cogliano-Pisani
    Nilsson-Gagner-Cole
    Reddox-Brodziak-Stortini

    Not particularly scary, and they still lack Wes Walz in Cogliano’s spot, but Pisani makes them deeper. They still look really top-heavy when it comes to scoring.

    That brings us to the second item…
    ——————–

    Boston fans are yapping about Cole. Lashoff and Sobotka are in the rumor. Sobotka is little and not blazingly fast. Make it Lashoff and Soderberg and go with it once Pisani comes back. I’d rather have a blueliner that can help now, but something like Lashoff/Soderberg is a very good return for Cole. Maybe that combo allows them to swing Wild/Petry/Chorney and Sugartits for a blue that helps now. If Tambellini isn’t kicking the tires on Whitney from the Pens for Cole+ as rumored around Pittsburgh, I’d be extremely surprised.
    ——————–

    If Roloson plays tonight, he’s playing the last 26. There is really no reason to go with Roloson tonight. Give him the night off and let him walk around in streets, even if the kid gives up seven.
    ——————–

    On a second watch last night – Gilbert was one of my three stars. He played a very good game, save the delay of game penalty.

  7. Jonathan Willis says:

    I hope they run Deslauriers out there tonight…

    I’m a little surprised at the Garon love; if he was going to turn it around, it likely wouldn’t be in Edmonton where the coaching staff had so little confidence in him, yes?

    Besides, if we’re looking at reasons why the Oilers might miss the playoffs, I’d say the backup goaltender is behind a couple of other bullet points right now.

  8. Coach pb9617 says:

    Further thinking on the trade front:

    Trade Cole for Lashoff and Soderberg. Trade a late pick and one of the Wild/Petry/Chorney for a veteran blue. Trade Sugartits for Wes Walz.

    Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
    Moreau-Walz-Pisani
    Gagner-Cogliano-Nilsson
    Reddox-Brodziak-Stortini

    Souray-Staios
    Grebeshkov-Gilbert
    Smid-New Blue

    Hope that the second line can hold their own, Roloson catches fire and the kids can add little bit of scoring. But at least it’s playoff experience.
    ——————–

    Grier was always one of my favorites. His hits make the boards wobble for about thirty seconds after impact. He’s made a career out of dirty work – a career that would have been nice to see entirely in Edmonton.

  9. Schitzo says:

    I think at this point, the difference between a JDD miracle and a Roloson miracle isn’t high enough to justify running 35 into the ground. Play the kid, hope for something crazy to happen.

  10. Schitzo says:

    Oh, and words can’t express how tempted I am to go to the WEM autograph signing on Sunday and tell the captain to stop taking dumbass rookie penalties.

  11. namflashback says:

    Yup, play the kid. If Roli had stolen the last game against SJS at Rexall, I could get on board with him playing — if only for the “in their heads” factor.

    The game against Dallas is the must win. Miracle points in SJS. Icing on the cake points in Calgary.

  12. Unleaded says:

    So, now that we all agree that playing JDD is the strategicly sound decision tonight so he’s ready for Dallas later, will anyone be surprised to see Roli out there tonight?

  13. HBomb says:

    Damn Lowetide, stop being optimistic!

    You know damn well it’s guaranteed loss night now.

    Going into San Jose in the current state, 3 game winning streak notwithstanding, I think we might need to invoke some Stan Weir today….

  14. Mustafa Hirji says:

    The mistake wasn’t trading Garon; the mistake is sending the proven NHL goaltender that is Danny Sabourin to Springfield where he’s useless.

    - Mustafa Hirji

  15. mjsh says:

    This might seem overly optimistic but I think the Oil have a chance tonight. San Jose has not been playing well by their standards and this is the cursed first game home after a long road trip.

  16. Malc says:

    I loved Horcoff’s net clearing tactics the past two games. That was hilarious – and effective to say the least.

    It is also great seeing what Gilbert can do again now that he’s getting more ice time. He was phenomenal last night I thought. Smid also looked very good. If the two continue to play like that the oil should weather the Visnovsky injury pretty well.

    On another note – please play JDD for once! We opted to have a backup goaltender whom we have no idea what he is capable of at the NHL level? Doesn’t make any sense. I wonder how much more we can hurt this goalies development.

  17. Black Dog says:

    Lets go Oilers.

    Clap clap clap clap clap.

    House money the rest of the trip, as Ty said, but I’d bet we see Roli tonight.

    And Dallas takes a big hit.

  18. speeds says:

    I can see it both ways for the goaltending decision.

    The schedule is not very compact over the next month. By that, I mean there are 0 BTB games until March 19/20. So after tonight, Roloson won’t have to play any BTB for awhile even if he plays every game.

    Interesting side note: The Oilers have ZERO games left this season on Monday or Wednesday. They play tues, thurs, saturday from now until Fri Mar 19th in COL.

  19. dstaples says:

    Yes, some of admired Garon, but the problem with moving him wasn’t that he was so great, it’s that so often JDD looks like Mike Palmateer on a bad night, all over the net, weird positioning, strange flops.

    But Roli can’t play every night at that level . . . or maybe he can.

  20. goldenchild says:

    My second fave Grier all time but nobody is touching Pam Grier in her prime.

    They got 2 last night they had to get, a single would be great, I think they need at least 2 out the next 2 SJ and Dal. I would give Roli the night off and see if you can get lucky.

    Finally will we ever here the coach ro anybody for that matter call 18 out for being the dumbfuck that he is? the last 3 mins of the 2nd period last night was epic even for him.

  21. Scott says:

    If Tambellini isn’t kicking the tires on Whitney from the Pens for Cole+ as rumored around Pittsburgh, I’d be extremely surprised.

    The major problem with this is that Whitney is on a long-term deal that we can’t afford long-term unless we shed one of our own big three.

    Trade Sugartits for Wes Walz.

    Because I’m obtuse… you mean a Wes Walz type of player correct? Or do you have someone specific in mind that isn’t Walz?

    this is the cursed first game home after a long road trip.

    This doesn’t really exist:

    http://gospelofhockey.blogspot.com/2009/01/first-game-back-after-long-road-trip-ii.html

  22. doritogrande says:

    I’m a little late to the party fromn last night, but I want to voice my opinion that last night was easily Peckham’s best game as an Oiler. I know it’s a disgustingly small sample size, but he did nothing wrong last night to my eyes. Even drew a penalty. If this isn’t his high water mark we may be able to run the rest of the season with the 6-D we have now to squeak into the playoffs. His being in the lineup for the rest of the season, to me, makes MacIntyre’s roster spot completely useless. We’ve got Stortini, Peckham, Strudwick and occasionally Gagner that can drop the mits. I’d much rather have Brule in Smac’s spot.

    Please God, let it be Deslauriers tonight. Give the kid a chance.

  23. speeds says:

    scott: I think they could afford Whitney, but it would likely mean that Grebeshkov and/or Staios would need to be moved before next season.

  24. namflashback says:

    Dorito,

    Looks like MacT/Huddy made the wise adjustment to have the better lines in front of the 43-49 pair for the most part.

    Terry Murray in LA was doing a masterful job of bending that pair and the Oiler’s 4th line over the barrel.

    Richards in SJ does the same, so expect some terrifying shifts with Jumbo Joe and Jason Strudwick behind the net.

  25. quain says:

    If Cole+ gets us Ryan Whitney then whomever is GMing Pittsburgh should just fire himself.

    A team with a nearing zero chance of making the playoffs, moving a signed long-term defenseman for a rental? Who hasn’t even been that good? Just terrible.

    You do that trade every day, unless the plus is something magnificient, and you figure out the salary cap later. Hell, Whitney probably gets you a decent player back in the offseason if you just want to rent a half season of him.

  26. godot10 says:

    I still think it is more likely Cole for Gill than Cole for Whitney.

    Gill can give you 12 good defensive minutes including penalty killing.

  27. Coach pb9617 says:

    The major problem with this is that Whitney is on a long-term deal that we can’t afford long-term unless we shed one of our own big three.

    Pittsburgh has the same problem. Their defense, with Letang turning into the goods and against decent competition; Goligoski absolutely murdering the easy minutes; and Gonchar coming back is the department of redundancy department.

    They have no forwards and they can’t afford any next year, as long as they’re carrying Whitney and Staal.

    The Oilers could afford Whitney if they hung Staios in the A, but it would likely mean that Grebs is gone.

    and occasionally Gagner that can drop the mits

    Tee hee

    If Cole+ gets us Ryan Whitney then whomever is GMing Pittsburgh should just fire himself.

    + will have to be picks and a prospectish guy (Poo?). See the reasoning above.

  28. Scott says:

    Revenues are still up this season as far as I know, but the cap figure will depend on the players deciding if they want the 5% push in the cap next year. I think they probably elect to do so. If that’s the case the cap should be stagnant or slightly higher next season. Pittsburgh would then need 1G, 2D and 6F with about 10 million in cap space given their committed contracts. That doesn’t seem too unmanageable to me. The 6 and 7 D should be very cheap, as should the back-up goalie, under 1M for sure. If they can keep those three, plus their bottom 3F signings to an average of $700,000 they’d have another 5.8M for four forwards. This seems pretty manageable to me, especially given the quality of their top two forwards. They’re not exactly desperate (although that Fleury contract looks like a big mistake).

  29. bookie says:

    If I were the coach, it would be a real dilemma. Either give JDD a chance cause you expect to lose, or play it like a playoff game and go with supergoalie.

    I assume the love for Garon is as a backup who would play 1 out of every ten games. He has played 1 game in Pittsburg, so they must not be enthralled.

  30. Bryan says:

    JDD played well enough during his starts earlier this year, those starts are part of why Garon was traded.

    Since then, his AHL starts have been problematic, but shouldn’t the fact that the Falcons are generally horrible this year be taken into account?

    I’m not saying that he’ll be able to beat the Sharks or that the Garon trade wasn’t a mistake in hindsight, but shouldn’t we reserve judgment until we see how he plays with the Oilers in front of him?

  31. hunter1909 says:

    I love Peckham – he’s as hard as nails, strong as an ox, and has the decency to not hit a guy when he’s down. In a year or two everyone will be on his bandwagon, all yapping about what a great player he is and how they always knew he was going to make it blah blah blah…

    I seriously hate to say this but I love this sickening team of arseholes. Guys like Souray are the types I’d want to go to war with myself, and maybe they’re finaly starting to think they are more than a bunch of collective losers.

    Hemsky is emerging as a bonafide star player(I don’t use the term superstar lightly lol), and who the fuck knows, they just might be about to emerge as a semi decent team, now that the shit has hit the proverbial fan, what with the injuries on that premiere defence.

    Having stated all THAT, I’m nothing more than just another lame-assed fan, clinging on to the dream that come April this team won’t be golfing.

  32. Coach pb9617 says:

    I’m stealing Bruce’s post from MC’s site and posting it here.

    Oilers shots differential ‘08-09
    ———————————–
    Fat Kid +40
    Horcoff +36
    Hemsky +35
    Garon +25
    Visnovsky +10
    Grebeshkov +2
    all others minus

    Oilers Fenwick numbers ‘08-09
    ——————————
    Fat Kid +75
    Hemsky +44
    Horcoff +39
    Visnovsky +33
    Garon +20
    Grebeshkov +11
    all others minus

    Oilers Corsi numbers ‘08-09
    ———————————
    Fat Kid +96
    Hemsky +84
    Visnovsky +68
    Grebeshkov +62
    Horcoff +37
    Garon +19
    Deslauriers +6
    Potulny +1
    all others minus

    He’s the bacon fat that fries the egg. Penner rules.

  33. Bruce says:

    Hey Coach, I thought you might like that one … or should I say, those three. I’m interested to hear what those Statzis who like Jim Corsi a whole lot more than they like Dustin Penner have to say about it. :)

    re: The starter tonight. The last time the Oilers had to play three in four days on the road should be fresh on everybody’s memory, since it was all of 10 days ago. (I don’t know this for sure, but I bet the Oil have more 3 in 4s this year than just about anybody; this has been one of the toughest schedules in their 30-, er, 29-season NHL history)

    At the time I was very outspoken that Roli should not start the middle game, which I deemed a no-win affair against conference power Detroit. We all know what happened, Roli did start, and got sacked.

    So here we are again, the middle game of 3 in 4 against a western conference power, sandwiched by four-pointers where we definitely need our Best to be at his best. To me it’s a no-brainer.

    Which is exactly what concerns me.

  34. geowal says:

    A theory on why Penner gets some of his edge over Horcoff/Hemsky in Coach’s stats:

    He tends to shift off a bit earlier, often with the puck heading south, while horcoff and/or Hemsky hang around and give up a shot, and sometimes a goal. I’ve definitely seen this several times, not sure if it’s enought to really affect the stats. This would also bring down the numbers of the unlikely LW who Penner shifts off for most often (Nilsson?). Difficult to quantify, but just putting that out there.

    The rest of the differential is presumably due to results of Hemsky double-shifting and Horcoff double faceoff-ing…hey, it could be a word.

  35. geowal says:

    Guess those are Bruce’s stats not coach’s, but the point remains the same.

  36. relic says:

    geo: Penner has also spent a bunch of time not on the 1st line this year so while you might be able to nit pick his numbers down closer to H&H he's still way above any other F.

  37. Jonathan Willis says:

    In a year or two everyone will be on [Peckham's] bandwagon, all yapping about what a great player he is and how they always knew he was going to make it blah blah blah…

    Seconded. Theo Peckham looks to be the cream of the crop down in the AHL right now, and I’d be very surprised if he isn’t a fan favorite (and a surprisingly effective player) within five years.

  38. hunter1909 says:

    LMAO I’ll be reading assorted posts, then see what ends up to be my own and I’ll be telling myself shite like…”wow this dude knows what he’s talking about”…

    Reasons to love Theo: Not only he has the same name as Vincent’s brother, lol, but he’s easily the closest we’ve had to Sean Brown since those heady 8th place days of yore.

    I love a fighter, and Peckham looks like being the type of nasty in your face type of dude we haven’t had since…

  39. Mr DeBakey says:

    When we’re talking about Wes Walz or Marty Reasoner,
    Maybe we should use “___”.
    As in “Marty Reasoner”

    I’d be very surprised if he isn’t a fan favourite (and a surprisingly effective player) within five years.

    But not next year.

    Mark Popovic was a fringe NHLer, who's having a good year in the KHL.
    His mini-scouting report at Sportsnet.ca reads exactly like Tom Gilbert's.

    For Cap reasons & D developmental reason,
    the Oilers need to sign "Mark Popovic" to a 3-year $2.5 million contract.

  40. Sean says:

    I love a fighter, and Peckham looks like being the type of nasty in your face type of dude we haven’t had since…

    Souray? ;)

  41. devin says:

    From a guy who watches almost every Pens game, Whitney is not the answer. He’s a guy who hasn’t yet turned the corner defensively so I somehow doubt he ever will. He’s still getting fed weaker opposition and giving up a ton of GA. Grebeshkov is a better option now and for the future. That said, I’m sure if you could pick him up he’d be easy to parlay into a decent winger in the summer.

    Pitts still has 9 NHL D-men though, and was forced to send the extremely effective Goligoski down to make room for Gonchar’s return. You could probably get two of Gill, Eaton, Boucher for a low price, though what we really need is a Rob Scuderi.

    And as for Wes Walz… didn’t he retire?

  42. shep says:

    boucher is out indefinitely (foot)

  43. Mr DeBakey says:

    He doesn’t mean Wes Walz

    He means “Wes Walz”

  44. Black Gold says:

    So now we’ve seen Peckham good and seen Peckham bad.
    Who’s a good Peckham comp?
    everything goes well, bieksa/o’brien?
    things don’t go well, Strudwick/Greene?

    I think most teams wouldn’t take sugartits straight up for a wes walz.

    I was rly hoping to see staios gone at the deadline, but with these injuries, i just cant see it happening. it breaks my heart.

  45. Scott says:

    Interesting comment by MacT on Gretzky and the referees:

    “He’s got enough influence that he generally gets the benefit when he can.”

    Also, who qualifies as “Wes Walz?”

  46. devin says:

    Oh, also, why are we not calling up Sabourin? He’s a vastly superior option to JDD and one could argue he’s at least equal to Garon. He’s lighting up the AHL again, killing time. What is up with the JDD love fest in e-town?

  47. Black Gold says:

    Draper, Marchant, Reasoner on a good day, Pahlsson on a bad day….

  48. Scott says:

    The guy I’d suggest for Peckham is Rick Berry.

    Both Berry and Peckham have birthdays in mid-November. They were both drafted as physical dmen in the third round out of the CHL. Berry brought his PIMs to the AHL in his first season there as a 20 y/o and then contributed additional offence in his second year. In his third pro season he made his NHL debut (19 games) and was full time in the NHL the next year. He played in a total of 197 NHL games, garnering 15 points and 314 PIMs.

    Peckham looks to be a little better and certainly has the NHL in his future but I don’t think that he’s close to a sure thing for more than 300 NHL games. I think that he’ll probably end up being a solid 5/6 guy that fights for a few seasons.

    19 y/o junior season and 20 y/0 pro season:

    Peckham:
    53 GP 10-25-35 173 PIMs
    59 GP 06-07-13 174 PIMs

    Berry:
    59 GP 09-21-30 131 PIMs
    62 GP 02-06-08 153 PIMs

  49. Coach pb9617 says:

    Hey Coach, I thought you might like that one … or should I say, those three. I’m interested to hear what those Statzis who like Jim Corsi a whole lot more than they like Dustin Penner have to say about it. :)

    LT and his band of haterzgeekz cannot stop the truth. Penner is good. No matter how badly LT hates him, he performs. No matter how much the haterzgeekz get mad about his level of “try”, he performs.

    He tends to shift off a bit earlier, often with the puck heading south, while horcoff and/or Hemsky hang around and give up a shot, and sometimes a goal. I’ve definitely seen this several times, not sure if it’s enought to really affect the stats. This would also bring down the numbers of the unlikely LW who Penner shifts off for most often (Nilsson?). Difficult to quantify, but just putting that out there.

    The rest of the differential is presumably due to results of Hemsky double-shifting and Horcoff double faceoff-ing…hey, it could be a word.

    Vic’s nifty toolbox says you wrong, baby.

    Combo = Shotdiff, fenwick, Corsi, GP

    27-83 = 64, 93, 122 35 GP

    10-83 = 48, 69, 97 41 GP

    27-10 = 79, 108, 131 46 GP

    He’s the lard filling your tub.

    Penner rules.

  50. Sean says:

    Oh, also, why are we not calling up Sabourin? He’s a vastly superior option to JDD and one could argue he’s at least equal to Garon. He’s lighting up the AHL again, killing time. What is up with the JDD love fest in e-town?

    Maybe they are gonna wait until JDD sits a month so he can go down on a conditioning stint

  51. Scott says:

    Maybe I’m confused about what we’re looking for but Kris Draper? He’s 11th on his team in QC and his Corsi is dead last at -1.8/60. With the Wings! His conventional +/- is also -16. Terrible!

    Todd Marchant also currently sits 11th on his team in QC and his Corsi beats only their stopper line at -10.9/60. His conventional +/- is -6.

    Which leaves Reasoner who’s having a good year and Pahlsson who, despite all the hype, still gets eaten up pretty badly going against the toughs.

    Is Brodziak really worse than these guys?

  52. hunter1909 says:

    Peckham is exactly what the Oilers defence needs – a killer who is strong enough to manhandle the opposing team to the point where they’re shit scared to fick with him…period.

    Souray is just as tough, but he’s kinda injury prone…so…let’s just keep Theo baby around for that killer insurance we all need

    lol

  53. Coach pb9617 says:

    Mr DeBakey said…

    When we’re talking about Wes Walz or Marty Reasoner,
    Maybe we should use “___”.
    As in “Marty Reasoner”

    It doesn’t matter. you’ll put “____” in your next post and everyone will get all confused about what that means. I’m just going to sub in random names. Walz, Skrudland, Dowd, Reasoner, Otto, Brylin. Feel free to join in the fun.

    Also, who qualifies as “Wes Walz?”

    Jim Dowd.

  54. hunter1909 says:

    Okay so OIlers lose tonight. They can’t win every game.

    What’s serious is, will my gf take me back? Okay so we argue a LOT. But the bitch’s Irish, so she’s genetically predisposed for fighting lmao.

    Note: If I wasn’t Irish myself, oh how I’d hate those drunken mouthy sods.

  55. Scott says:

    Jim Dowd.

    It’s possible that you’re intentionally taking names from the past, but Dowd isn’t playing in the league this year either and last year, as one might expect, he sucked. Second to last in QC on the Flyers, last on the Flyers in Corsi/60 and played about 7 minutes a game at EV. He’s not exactly a good fourth line option, let alone third line.

    When I’m asking who qualifies, I mean, you know, players we might actually be able to use now. The best one I can think of who’s probably available is Reasoner and while I’d fully support a Schremp for Reasoner trade, I doubt it happens. Who else is there that you have in mind?

  56. Coach pb9617 says:

    From a guy who watches almost every Pens game, Whitney is not the answer. He’s a guy who hasn’t yet turned the corner defensively so I somehow doubt he ever will. He’s still getting fed weaker opposition and giving up a ton of GA. Grebeshkov is a better option now and for the future. That said, I’m sure if you could pick him up he’d be easy to parlay into a decent winger in the summer.

    I watch them too, but it’s meaningless. His numbers were fine last year, and on a bad foot. This year, he’s 20 games back from major foot surgery and is still fighting it. He’ll be just fine.

  57. Coach pb9617 says:

    It’s possible that you’re intentionally taking names from the past,

    I told you, De Bakey.

    Who else is there that you have in mind?

    Brian Skrudland.

  58. Coach pb9617 says:

    Actually, since a righty makes the most sense, Dirk Graham fits the bill. Troy Murray would be good too, not sure of his contract status though. If he’s a UFA, do it.

  59. Scott says:

    Excellent reading skills Coach.

    When I’m asking who qualifies, I mean, you know, players we might actually be able to use now. The best one I can think of who’s probably available is Reasoner and while I’d fully support a Schremp for Reasoner trade, I doubt it happens. Who else is there that you have in mind?

  60. jon k says:

    I’m of the opinion that Penner has such obscene corsi numbers because he plays exclusively with the Horcoff and Hemsky unit.

    When he was playing the on the third line at the beginning of the season his numbers were less than impressive.

    Horcoff and Hemsky both get thrown out there routinely with other players on the team, which I think would tend to bring their average corsi figure down a notch.

    Probably a good example where the numbers are slightly misleading, though I think I need to point out that Penner’s strengths obviously suit the Horcoff and Hemsky unit very well. No idea why an NHL coach would break them up when looking at the numbers.

  61. Dennis says:

    Scott: Draper hasn’t played real players in a long time now. But he works hard and he grows a fine playoff beard and he has Cup rings and that’s enough for some people.

    Pahlsson looks like a couple of injuries are about to finish him or least is severely limiting his effectiveness.

    Peckham Will most likely look better once he plays some games at Rexall and we can thusly shelter him. And he’d probably look better if he had a better partner than 43. And as we said before, two of his games have been in Pit an Det so a lot of dmen can look bad in those rinks.

    When I think of Grier I think about a game early in the ’97 season when the Oilers beat the Rags at Northlands. I’d just moved back to the city and that year I started heading to the sports bar all the time watching the Oil and in this game Low had a Young Grier – and in truth there were a lot of young players on that club – out in the last minute and he went down to block a shot and he had an instant fan.

    I wish we could go back and track it but from what i remember the old MGM line – and unit if you count that Murray would fill in whenever one of Marchant-Grier-Moreau were hurt – always took on the toughs and they all killed penalties as well. Who can forget that year his shoulder popped out and how he’d scream every time it became once again dislodged? I loved that guy and I still do and for as long as I have long term memory I’ll remember him busting his ass down the ice to best Krupp and negate an icing and set up McAmmond for an ENG in G5 in Denver in ’98.

    That finished the first of three consecutive victories and the end of the ’98 Avs:D

  62. Jonathan Willis says:

    Vic’s nifty toolbox says you wrong, baby.

    In point of fact, Vic’s handy little tool box does separate Horcoff from Hemsky and Penner quite nicely. Here’s the faceoff data:

    27, 10, 83: 112def/82off= +30
    10 w/o 2: 200def/130off = +70
    27 w/o 2: 65def/115off = -50
    83 w/o 2: 81def/116off = -35

  63. Mr DeBakey says:

    I told you, De Bakey.

    I think you meant Hbomb

  64. Scott says:

    I’m of the opinion that Penner has such obscene corsi numbers because he plays exclusively with the Horcoff and Hemsky unit.

    When he was playing the on the third line at the beginning of the season his numbers were less than impressive.

    Admittedly, scoring chances aren’t the same as Corsi, but I think that using Penner’s totals apart from H and H supports Penner’s case further. He was mostly playing with Moreau and Pisani in these situations and through the first ten games the scoring chances at EV were:

    Penner – +1
    Pisani – -13
    Moreau – -17

    I’d imagine Corsi will tell a similar story. Penner has been outpacing his linemates all year.

  65. Unleaded says:

    A few comments:

    ++++Our top line is performing like a top line. How pleasing!

    ++The longer we go without bringing back Reasoner, the more playing time Pouliot gets.

    ++The longer we go without making a move for a D-man means the more playing time Peckam gets

    +++Gilbert and Smid look okay so far as the second pairing.

    ++Staois hasn’t cost us much playing on the top pairing. His numbers even looked good. End of the world?

    +The team is succeeding ins spite of Moreau’s terrible numbers.

    Mmmmm… Fools hope…

  66. jon k says:

    Further to the Wes Walz topic, I think Radek Bonk out of Nashville is our man.

    MacT avoided running the top line against him on our last Nashville game at home, Feb 1 and it seemed like Trotz would try to get him out against them if possible. Timeonice.com seems to support this.

    61.5 FO% on the season.

    Lowest GA/60 of all centres on Nashville.

    1.475 cap hit this season then UFA.

    Could be had for a mid-prospect likely.

    Seems like our man.

  67. jon k says:

    As JW has pointed out, Penner’s differential in faceoff positioning also seems to account for his superior corsi number overall, if I’m reading it correctly.

    Although I’d be hesitant to necessarily say this is MAcT sheltering 27. His strength is primarily maintaining possession and a cycle in the offensive zone, so you would hope that a coach would try to take advantage of that by starting him off there. Especially with a player who has… Ahem, struggled to keep up with greater amounts of icetime.

  68. Phil says:

    //What’s serious is, will my gf take me back? Okay so we argue a LOT. But the bitch’s Irish, so she’s genetically predisposed for fighting lmao.//

    Can’t imagine why she wouldn’t.

  69. Tania says:

    I know this is a thread about the game against San Jose and a version of an elite group of Oilers bloggers all clamouring with their latest opinions on how to fix this team, but I just read a couple of articles on a fight Souray had in Minnesota on the Jan 15 game and went back in Lowetide’s archives to see what the opinion of the fight was. Apparently everyone loved it.

    However, from a Minnesota Wild perspective, the team has sent a copy of a videotape previously not used that shows Souray using a wrist guard to land some blows and they want action. You can see their reasoning in these two posts:

    http://mnwildtimes.blogspot.com/2009/02/update-missed-opportunities-sheldon.html

    http://mnwildtimes.blogspot.com/2009/01/missed-opportunities-sheldon-souray.html

    Wondering what the thoughts are here.

  70. Sean Zandberg says:

    Black Dog: email me at zanstorm99@yahoo.ca. I have a question.

    Lose Oilers lose!!! I want to see a Canucks win and an Oilers loss tonight.

  71. Mr DeBakey says:

    When I’m asking who qualifies, I mean, you know, players we might actually be able to use now.

    -Tyler Kennedy
    -Steve Reinprecht
    -Dominic Moore
    -Paul Szczechura

  72. kris says:

    I woke up and read something like the following headline on TSN:

    Surging Oilers to face Struggling Sharks

    ???

    Am I Rip Van Winkle? Did I sleep for a 100 seasons? When the hell did the tables turn, hell freeze over, etc.?

    I expect to wake up again and read:

    “Winless Red Wings defeated by cross town rivals, the New Detroit Cyborgs”

  73. Coach pb9617 says:

    I’d imagine Corsi will tell a similar story. Penner has been outpacing his linemates all year.

    He’s the marbling in your Ribeye: Dustin Penner.

    Small sample sizes, but:

    27-51 = -5, 4, 6
    83-51 = -14, -13, -11

    27-46 = 4, 7, 5
    12-46 = -7, -11, -10

    27-26 = 5, 9, 2
    12-26 = -7, 5, 12
    18-26 = -13, -14, -19

    Dustin Penner – making everyone better.

  74. Matt N says:

    I know this is a thread about the game against San Jose and a version of an elite group of Oilers bloggers all clamouring with their latest opinions on how to fix this team, but I just read a couple of articles on a fight Souray had in Minnesota on the Jan 15 game and went back in Lowetide’s archives to see what the opinion of the fight was. Apparently everyone loved it.

    However, from a Minnesota Wild perspective, the team has sent a copy of a videotape previously not used that shows Souray using a wrist guard to land some blows and they want action. Wondering what the thoughts are here.

    Hey guys. We are elite!!!!

    To answer your question, if the commish has no problem with it, then I don’t. He met with the brass and he is still wearing it. On a personal note, if Sourays beat down of Weller after tossing Moreau out of the way was wrong, I don’t want to be right.

  75. jon k says:

    Coach: The problem is that if I’m reading what JW posted, MacT uses Penner primarily as an offensive zone man and he’s starting there far more often than in the defensive zone. Therefore his numbers, regardless of who his linemates are, are conflated.

    Lines that start consistently primarily in the offensive zone are always going to post superior corsi to their teammates.

  76. Unleaded says:

    @ Tania

    I don’t want to address what you have brought up. The Oilers need what Sheldon brings with him, and acknowledging that what he did was wrong, unsportsmanlike, and suspension-worthy will not help the Oilers make the playoffs. Considering what happened to Grebeshkov and Visnovsky, I’d say that karma and the Hockey GOds are punishing the Oilers for their misdeed.

    That being said, it doesn’t change the situation for the Wild,or for Craig Weller. All I can say is that I hope he has a speedy recovery, and that the next time these two teams meet no one decides to go head hunting and escalates the situation.

    The last thing anyone wants is another Steve Moore.

  77. hunter1909 says:

    Phil: Can I help it if I’m in a can’t live with em can’t live without em relationship?

    It’s like living inside a Marchello Mastrianni movie, but wtf I’m trapped like a fly in a piece of flypaper.

    Kind of like being an Oilers fan, with privileges lmao.

  78. Bruce says:

    Theo Peckham looks to be the cream of the crop down in the AHL right now, and I’d be very surprised if he isn’t a fan favorite (and a surprisingly effective player) within five years.

    Reminds me of something I said about Matt Greene, about, oh, three years ago. It seems I was incorrect about the “fan favourite” part, although this fan liked him just fine.

    things don’t go well, Strudwick/Greene?

    Hold the phone, BlackGold, and don't speak ill of the departed. Matt Greene is having an outstanding season. Moreover — last night's game notwithstanding — his Kings have a defensive identity for the first time since Rogie Vachon (or thereabouts). Can't say A –> B, but can confidently project that his upside is still several years in the future … as is Theo Peckham's. I expect their career paths to be somewhat similar to tell you the truth.

    I did like what I saw last night, which is more what I think we can expect from Theo — errors of enthusiasm, but lots of said enthusiasm. Here's how I scored him for Staples' player gradings:

    Theo Peckham – 6: Finished his own bout with my neighbour’s buddy Steven Goertzen in a similar manner [to Stortini's], in a position to hit a fallen opponent but not actually doing so. I liked how he went to bat for his goaltender there, and how fiercely he defended him generally (2 hits, 1 block), with a surprising +5/-4 on the scoring chance metric. Overcommitted a couple of times but was able to make the play in the prone position at least once. Lots of rough edges in this kid, and lots to like.

    (see Cult of Hockey or Oil Droppings for the full list)

    I also thought last night was Jason Strudwick’s finest game on the blue for the Oil. All six D had a real strong game.

  79. Bruce says:

    As JW has pointed out, Penner’s differential in faceoff positioning also seems to account for his superior corsi number overall, if I’m reading it correctly.

    I don’t think you are, unless you think Ales Hemsky’s -35 should somehow be grouped with Shawn Horcoff’s +70 rather than Dustin Penner’s -50. Horcoff does a ton of defensive zone work with both Hemsky’s and Penner’s asses stapled to the bench. All of which explains why Horcoff’s shots numbers are slightly lower, but it doesn’t explain why Penner stacks up so well compared to Hemsky.

    (Btw, good work on the faceoff data, JW; I was going to bring that up eventually. Coach poached my statistical rejoinder from MC79′s site a little out of context. Some of that context is certainly provided by faceoff data.)

    ***
    I’m of the opinion that Penner has such obscene corsi numbers because he plays exclusively with the Horcoff and Hemsky unit.

    I’m of the opinion that Horcoff and Hemsky have such obscene (???) Corsi numbers because they play exclusively (?) with Penner.

    When he was playing the on the third line at the beginning of the season his numbers were less than impressive.

    When he was playing the on the third line at the beginning of the season THEIR numbers were less than impressive.

    Horcoff and Hemsky both get thrown out there routinely with other players on the team, which I think would tend to bring their average corsi figure down a notch.

    Penner gets thrown out there routinely with other players on the team, which I think would tend to bring HIS average corsi figure down a notch.
    ***

    Jon: from where I sit all those statements are equally true. The bias is all in how one chooses one’s words. :)

  80. HBomb says:

    Dustin Penner – making everyone better.

    Gravy makes everything better. I’m sensing a nickname here….

  81. godot10 says:

    //However, from a Minnesota Wild perspective, the team has sent a copy of a videotape previously not used that shows Souray using a wrist guard to land some blows and they want action. You can see their reasoning in these two posts:
    http://mnwildtimes.blogspot.com/2009/02/update-missed-opportunities-sheldon.html
    http://mnwildtimes.blogspot.com/2009/01/missed-opportunities-sheldon-souray.html
    Wondering what the thoughts are here.//

    The alleged “new evidence” is not up on Youtube, so it is mythical. The video available on Youtube shows nothing objectionable.

    Colin Campbell has seen the wristguard and is allowing Souray to keep playing with it. If it had the potential to hurt somebody, he would not be allowed to play with it.

    Weller was taking cheap shots all game. Do you concede that?

    Boogaard has intentionally injured Oiler non-goons in the past, including Hemsky.

    The Oilers are one of the teams that attempted to go goon free, and evolve the league away from barbarism. The Wild have not been such a franchise. Their employment of Boogaard has forced every team in the West to goon up, when most of the other team sactually have shown an inclination to de-gooning, to detente. i.e. The Wild are the biggest proponents of continued barbarism in the Northwest Division.

  82. devin says:

    Coach- have to agree to disagree re: Whitney. I’ve “seen him bad” the past few years w/r/t defensive zone coverage and the numbers back that up. He’s 26 on Thursday and is still looking like Smid in front of his own net.

    Gilbert at 4M is a vastly superior value.

  83. namflashback says:

    Jon K,

    Yeah I can get into the idea of Bonk if Cole is out to Boston as the rumours persist. Depending on how quickly 34 gets back to speed.

    Cole for – prospect, pick.

    Near NHL Prospect for Bonk.

    Pick for Zanon.

    27-10-83
    12-13-89
    18-Bonk-34/78
    JFJ-51-78/34/46
    x two of 33/46/78

    24-44
    77-5
    43-Zanon
    49

    There, easy.

  84. more green says:

    I just watched the youtube clip of the Souray Weller fight and you can see he does throw a few elbows. I’m not sure it would have mattered much since Souray was basically cradling Weller’s head with his right hand while feeding him lefts. I’m sure his fist would have knocked him out all the same. But yeah, I’ll be honest, throwing the elbows, especially with that wrist guard he wears is a little dirty.

    I still love him, but it would be a different matter if he played for another team.

  85. Phil says:

    You can see his wrist guard in this fight with McCarty, although the guard is on Souray’s right wrist, and he destroys McCarty left handed. I remember there being some talk about the wrist guard after this fight, but if he’s still wearing it, then the league must be ok with it.

  86. Phil says:

    BTW, this Ryane Clowe kid… RFA this summer, no? If I was a GM, he’d be high on my list of kids to through a bunch of money and draft picks at come July.

  87. godot10 says:

    Souray was forced to change his wristguard after the McCarty incident. It is not the same wristguard. He took the current wristguard to the hearing with Campbell. Campbell had no problem with it.

  88. Coach pb9617 says:

    Lines that start consistently primarily in the offensive zone are always going to post superior corsi to their teammates.

    I get that, thanks. JW should compare the rest of the team for context.

    Penner rules.

  89. Coach pb9617 says:

    (Btw, good work on the faceoff data, JW; I was going to bring that up eventually. Coach poached my statistical rejoinder from MC79′s site a little out of context. Some of that context is certainly provided by faceoff data.)

    Quiet you hater!

  90. Coach pb9617 says:

    Wow, that Minnesota Wild Times guy makes hunter seem calm and rational when talking about Mac and Lowe.

  91. Coach pb9617 says:

    Coach- have to agree to disagree re: Whitney. I’ve “seen him bad” the past few years w/r/t defensive zone coverage and the numbers back that up. He’s 26 on Thursday and is still looking like Smid in front of his own net.

    The numbers last year were fine.

    Gilbert at 4M is a vastly superior value.

    That’s a strawman. I never brought up Gilbert, nor compared the two.

  92. hunter1909 says:

    Just why are so many people dissing Theo Peckham, who’s played less than a handful of NHL games?

    Larry fucking Robinson looked like shit when he started playing in the NHL.

    Geez, some people.

    In a couple of years everyone in here will be yapping about how they all knew what a genius Lowe was to have stolen him.

    LOL

  93. Coach pb9617 says:

    BTW, this Ryane Clowe kid… RFA this summer, no? If I was a GM, he’d be high on my list of kids to through a bunch of money and draft picks at come July.

    People in the know were saying this last summer.

  94. devin says:

    That’s a strawman. I never brought up Gilbert, nor compared the two.

    Coach- I know, all I was saying was that I don't think it would make sense for the Oilers to acquire Whitney given the price tag. It would probably necessitate shipping out one of 77 or 37.

    Just as a comparable since they have an identical contract, I like Gilbert's all around game much better, and I think were he manning the left point opposite Gonchar for a full season he'd put up 50+ pts, too.

    Anyway, I like Whitney, I really do (and he was good the past couple years, albeit playing softies), but I think he's wrong for the Oilers. That doesn't mean he's not a useful player… he just plays the wrong position given our current roster and salary makeup. Lowe & co. have painted themselves into a corner where they can't afford any more contracts that won't significantly outperform the dollars.

  95. Bruce says:

    Courtesy TimeOnIce.com:

    Horpensky together
    ———————
    +19/-4 = +15 goals
    +152/-87 = +65 shots
    +218/-120 = +98 Fenwick
    +290/-163 = +127 Corsi

    Horcoff otherwise
    ———————
    +15/-18 = -3 goals
    +235/-264 = -29 shots
    +318/-387 = -59 Fenwick
    +414/-504 = -90 Corsi

    Hemsky otherwise
    ——————-
    +11/-17 = -6 goals
    +180/-210 = -30 shots
    +244/-298 = -54 Fenwick
    +334/-377 = -43 Corsi

    Penner otherwise
    ———————
    +14/-20 = -6 goals
    +191/-216 = -25 shots
    +264/-287 = -23 Fenwick
    +361/-392 = -31 Corsi

    That’s a pretty stunning set of numbers to my eye. It doesn’t so much make a case for Horcoff, Hemsky or Penner as it does for the three of them as a line. They have outscored the bad guys 19-4 when together? Holy shit. By any of the shots metrics, as a trio they are outwhatevering the bad guys by a margin of 1.75 to 1.8 : 1. I repeat, holy shit.

    When the line is broken up, even including time when two of the three play together, they are all three minus players right across the board.

    If I’m the coach those three guys are going to line up together come hell or high water. The collective is seemingly much greater than the sum of its parts.

  96. Black Gold says:

    Scott, outside of Kesler or J.Staal, I’m not rly sold on giving up assets to get a checking line center.
    The amount U’d be giving up wouldn’t be worth the marginal upgrade on Brodziak.
    Maybe if we could get a guy like reasoner for free.. oh wait.

  97. PunjabiOil says:

    Next year, I don’t believe Gagner and Cogliano’s cap hit will be 1.650M and 1.133M as it was this year due to bonuses being included in the cap hit.

    Next year, it will fall down to .850M and .825M respectively?

    If Speeds (or the next best alternative) doesn’t disagree, I’ll assume I’m right

    ***

    My Habs buddy just texted me:

    “Kovalev to Edmonton makes so much sense. He’s also a former teammate of your coach and manager”

    To which I responded:

    “Kovalev for Cole straight up? You do that deal”

    To which he countered:

    “Yes. I like Kovalev for Cole. You get your sniper, we get our grip. Both contracts are over in July”

    Some food for thought.

  98. B.C.B. says:

    My Wes Walz for this year:

    Ranek Bonk (NSH):
    1.474Mill cap hit UFA, 2.27 GAON/60 (lowest for any center on the team), 64.1% faceoffs (third most on team), 14:53 TOI/G, poor +/- and corsi numbers this year

    Jay McClement (STL):
    0.95million UFA, 2.65 GAON/60, middling Comp with crap as linemates, 56.4% faceoff (but doesn’t take many), 16:19 TOI/g, Crappy +/- and corsi

    Chris Gratton(TB):
    1.25million UFA, 2.47 GAON/60, Plays slightly middling comp with the dregs on his wings, 62.2% face offs (takes his far share when not the the AAAs), 10:47 TOI/G, Crappy corsi, slightly below average +/-

    Remember all these players play for crappy teams so their corsi and +/- ‘may’ be better then they look. I also just focused on teams looking to sell with UFA that play center. I’d go with Bonk, but I have liked him since in played in OTT.

  99. bookie says:

    gravy

  100. bookie says:

    Gainey asks Kovalev to stay home

    Hmmm, does a trip to Edmonton fix him all up?

    is Cole a better asset at the trade deadline?

  101. Lowetide says:

    Bryan Young scored for the Falcons tonight, I think it might be his first pro goal.

  102. B.C.B. says:

    If I was trading Cole for Kovalev, I’d want a draft pick back- say 3rd or 4th, or maybe a middling prospect. Both are struggling offensively and Cole brings more grit, can play all special teams, and draws penalties (all three things that Kovy doesn’t do)

  103. Traktor says:

    If we’re going to waste resources on a UFA then I’d suggest going after Ian Laperriere. He has the lowest GAON/60 out of any Avs regular but he hasn’t been playing against heavyweights either. He’s one of only two players with a positive GF/GA/60 differential. Not the greatest on the dot but he brings serious grit and energy. He could be the heart transplant that this team needs.

    Pouliot + Reddox for Laperriere.

    With the way the Oil have bring drafting lately I’d be hesitant at move draft picks.

  104. Coach pb9617 says:

    Bruce – the boxcars are just as good. They are a 240 point line when together. Count how many other 240 point lines exist in the league.

    But, yeah, the team needs a #1LW and a #1C to really unleash Hemsky.

    Why trade Cole for Kovalev? Just to move pieces on a board?

    LT – interesting pairing Daum has working right now – Chorney/Wild, eh?

  105. Scott says:

    So, because I’m curious, if I said that I thought that Jason Strudwick played pretty flawlessly each and every night, what would you guys think? That I don’t watch the games? I don’t think MacT openly lies to the media, but the comments do strike me as being pretty strange.

  106. Black Gold says:

    If it was just some dude that said Strudwick played pretty flawlessly, I’d assume he was an idiot. If it was MacT or someone who regularly posts intelligent things, I would assume they have a very different opinion of what “flawlessly” means than I do.

  107. jon k says:

    The Jokinen trade has really turned out to be a savvy one. Florida has made a good team from the defense out by acquiring Ballard and Boynton.

    Prettty unusual, but the team getting the best player didn’t win.

  108. B.C.B. says:

    Scott: I would think you are try out every drink that Hbomb gives a recipe to (more then a few times) and you have the tolerance of teenie-bobber.

    then I would direct you to a post by Bruce:
    http://oildroppings.blogspot.com
    /2008/12/tracking-ladi-ii.html

  109. B.C.B. says:

    Coach: I’d trade Cole for Kovalev and parts, because I am not sold on the offensive output of the second line. I like this better
    10-83-27
    13-89-Kovalev
    Walz-34-18
    52-46-85
    BP: SMac Poulet
    Nilsson trade bait for Walz or a dman

  110. Bruce says:

    But, yeah, the team needs a #1LW and a #1C to really unleash Hemsky.

    Coach, yeah I’m still kind of boggling over those numbers of Horpensky as a trio. They have outshot the bad guys by 75% AND those shots have been quality in the good end, not so much in ours if the percentages mean anything. Horpensky have a 12.5 Sh% and a .954 Sv% when all three are on the ice, for an astonishing PDO number of 1.079. That’s how you dominate to the tune of 19-4. “Unsustainable”, I know, but the sample size is becoming significant, esp. when piggybacked on observed results from last season when Horpensky cooked through December and January, then caved when Horc went down. As a trio it seems these guys got the chemistry working.

  111. Fake Craig McTavish says:

    Bruce said…

    “But, yeah, the team needs a #1LW and a #1C to really unleash Hemsky.

    Coach, yeah I’m still kind of boggling over those numbers of Horpensky as a trio. They have outshot the bad guys by 75% AND those shots have been quality in the good end, not so much in ours if the percentages mean anything. Horpensky have a 12.5 Sh% and a .954 Sv% when all three are on the ice, for an astonishing PDO number of 1.079. That’s how you dominate to the tune of 19-4. “Unsustainable”, I know, but the sample size is becoming significant, esp. when piggybacked on observed results from last season when Horpensky cooked through December and January, then caved when Horc went down. As a trio it seems these guys got the chemistry working.”

    Amazing that these wunderkinds just don’t get more done when they’re on the ice.

    While Hemsky is having a breakout season the other two will be lucky to score 20 or break 50 points.

  112. RiversQ says:

    Bruce: jon k has picked up on the main piece of context that has concerned me when it comes to figuring out individual contributions to the 1st line. It’s the faceoffs. JW and slipper were talking about this in December. Might as well post the faceoffs along with the rest of the EV data.

    It gets very hard to parse all of this given the drop off in linemates, the difference in the faceoffs, and the inevitably small sample size.

    No matter what, the important conclusion is that 27-10-83 is a very effective line.

  113. Coach pb9617 says:

    Amazing that these wunderkinds just don’t get more done when they’re on the ice.

    While Hemsky is having a breakout season the other two will be lucky to score 20 or break 50 points.

    You are obtuse like a 147 degree angle.

    Horpensky has been together for 26 games this year.

    Horcoff: 8G 16A
    Hemsky: 13G 20A
    Penner: 10G 12A

    31G in 26GP
    79P in 26GP

    That’s 98 goals and 249 points for a season, if they were to ever actually play together.

    Hemsky with Horpensky:
    26 GP 13G 20A .5GPG and 1.3 PPG

    Hemsky without:
    20GP 5G 12A .25GPG and .85PPG

  114. Lowetide says:

    I agree with Coach: That 1line needs Ryan Smyth.

  115. JEFF says:

    Fyi goaliepost.com has Roloson as probable starter for tonight

  116. Coach pb9617 says:

    Year GP G A P GPG APG PPG
    Penner 08 46 11 16 27 0.24 0.35 0.59
    Hemsky 08 46 13 32 45 0.28 0.70 0.98
    Horcoff 08 46 21 25 46 0.46 0.54 1.00

    Penner 09 26 10 12 22 0.38 0.46 0.85
    Hemsky 09 26 13 20 33 0.50 0.77 1.27
    Horcoff 09 26 8 16 24 0.31 0.62 0.92

    Penner T 72 21 28 49 0.29 0.39 0.68
    Hemsky T 72 26 52 78 0.36 0.72 1.08
    Horcoff T 72 29 41 70 0.40 0.57 0.97

    Penner 82 24 32 56
    Hemsky 82 30 59 89
    Horcoff 82 33 47 80

  117. RiversQ says:

    Coach: you do know that if you check Penner’s most common ES linemates for the year that it is 10 and 83 by a landslide, right?

    It’s not like these guys haven’t played together a heap.

  118. quain says:

    Yeah, Coach, we should definitely trade Penner for Kovalev and have him play left wing, we get it. Sheesh, you’re a broken record.

  119. Lowetide says:

    All 6 of the Springfield D were interesting tonight. Plus, they won!

  120. Ribs says:

    Bryan Young scored for the Falcons tonight, I think it might be his first pro goal.

    The game winner!

    Well holy moly, the Falcons actually won a game. They even scored more goals than any game this season while they were at it!

    Landon has another damning blog post up. The guy sure doesn’t help his team by going on like this….

  121. Coach pb9617 says:

    I agree with Coach: That 1line needs Ryan Smyth.

    I hope Penner slips and lands on you.

    Fyi goaliepost.com has Roloson as probable starter for tonight

    The evil empire’s pregame audio made that obvious with the interview of Roloson.

    This is such a bad idea.

  122. Scott says:

    In 05-06:

    Ales Hemsky 81GP: 19-58-77
    Shawn Horcoff 79GP: 22-51-73
    Ryan Smyth 75GP: 36-30-66

    This is of course before Hemsky matures, and they actually did it for a whole year instead of only playing together when the line was “clicking.” I like Penner as a player, especially in the offensive zone, but I’m not yet convinced that another legit LW couldn’t do the job.

    Still, 27-10-83 are a good-to-great line for us.

    P.S. Bring back Smytty.

  123. Ribs says:

    Ride Roloson until he keels over, I say.

    Why the hell not.

  124. B.C.B. says:

    Good job Coach on demonstrating the first line is a first line (I am still waiting till the end of the year to judge that: to see if this is their top gear or if they have another one for the stretch run/playoffs).

    But what do you folks think about the second line? I personally think it is not getting the job done. I picked up on the suggestion of switching Cole for Kovalev, because I think he could be this years Samsonov to push that second line over the top: firsts because I think a motivated Kovalev could be great with Gagner, and second because Cole is not getting it done offensively. Do you folks see the 2nd line problems being addressed? who would you add?

  125. reijo29 says:

    Robin Brownlee Reporting on Oilers Nation that: Caroilna, not Boston may be front runner for Cole at deadline.
    Also, says that Tuomo Ruutu is the name he is hearing coming back.
    I would be elated with this deal if Ruutu’s back is better.
    Thoughts?

  126. Dennis says:

    Guys, I need a favour. I need to pull the game number for the scoring chance page and for some reason I can’t access it from my sister’s computer.

    So, can someone go to the scores page on NHL.com, find the Oilers game, right-click on Gamecentre and then hit properties.

    Then, check out the official game number and give me the last five digits.

  127. Bruce says:

    Might as well post the faceoffs along with the rest of the EV data.
    It gets very hard to parse all of this given the drop off in linemates, the difference in the faceoffs, and the inevitably small sample size.

    RQ: Sure thing, Jon’s and your point is well taken. I’ll use Vic’s ZoneShift, which I calculate as (DZone – OZone faceoffs taken) + (OZone – DZone end of shift). It’s not exact cuz the faceoffs taken aren’t restricted (AFAIK) to beginning of shifts so it’s not quite apples and apples. But it’s certainly the best we got.

    Horpensky
    (75 – 89) + ( 81 – 54) = +13

    Horcoff otherwise
    (237 – 123) + (122 – 140) = +96

    Hemsky otherwise
    (118 – 109) + (109 – 101) = +17

    Penner otherwise
    (99 – 108) + (114 – 102) = +3

    … which confirms what we already know about Horcoff. He among the three stands out for his heavy duty lifting in the defensive zone, and his ZoneShift of +109 overall is extremely impressive, one of the best in the league I recokon (without having the time to actually check the other 29 teams).

    It’s little surprising that Horpensky isn’t a little more dominant by this metric, but they begin 19% more shifts in the offensive zone and rather than moderating towards the mean as one might expect, they actually end their shifts with a 50% advantage at the good end of the ice. Which is pretty darn good.

    Coach: you do know that if you check Penner’s most common ES linemates for the year that it is 10 and 83 by a landslide, right?

    Hmmm, a minute ago you were talking about an inevitably small sample size, which is it?

    Anyway, I looked at EV TOI from HockeyAnalysis.com, which gives info on duos but not trios.

    Hemsky has spent 72% of his time with Horcoff and 45% with Penner, total 117%.

    Horcoff has played 56% with Hemsky and 51% with Penner, total 107%.

    Penner has spent 60% of his EV TOI with Horcoff, 41% with Hemsky, total 101%.

    So Dustin has actually spent the least percentage of his ice with one or both of the other guys, Ales by far the most. Obviously Hemsky’s injury factors in here. But the end result is that Ales has spent a bigger percentage of his time with quality mates.

    No matter what, the important conclusion is that 27-10-83 is a very effective line.

    That is the important conclusion, and we are in complete agreement on this.

  128. Bruce says:

    Dennis, try 00853.

  129. Bruce says:

    Somebody got a good stream for this PPV affair?

  130. Coach pb9617 says:

    Coach: you do know that if you check Penner’s most common ES linemates for the year that it is 10 and 83 by a landslide, right?

    It’s not like these guys haven’t played together a heap.

    They weren’t playing together for the first 18 games, until after Penner was a healthy scratch. After that, both Horcoff and Hemsky have missed time, so the line as a whole hasn’t played together much at all this year. Those two might be his most common linemates, but considering he’s played 28 games in a combination of other lines and without one of them due to injury, they’ve not been together for any solid run outside of the 9 games from games 19-28 and the last handful of games since Horcoff and Hemsky regained their health.

    This is of course before Hemsky matures, and they actually did it for a whole year instead of only playing together when the line was “clicking.”

    That’s unfair, considering the coach was playing Dr. Moreau hockey edition to start the season and injuries have ruined major chunks of playing time.

    Yeah, Coach, we should definitely trade Penner for Kovalev and have him play left wing, we get it. Sheesh, you’re a broken record.

    I’m going to stay that way as long as people are questioning Horcoff as the #1 C and Horpensky’s effectiveness. Oh, and as long as LT keeps hating Penner.

    And Smid.

    Those goofy bastards are just about the best thing I have in this crazy old world.

    Alright, that’s enough on Horpensky defense for the evening. Time to watch Roloson get ground down to a nub tonight.

  131. Coach pb9617 says:

    The guy sure doesn’t help his team by going on like this….

    He was a goalie and everyone knows how unbalanced the entire lot of them seem to be. A couple of people have talked about the roadrunners getting back in the game next year, it looks more and more like that’s the path the evil empire will take.

  132. Jonathan Willis says:

    Ladi does a good snow angel.

  133. bookie says:

    Just tuning in, what’s all of the whining about playing Roli about. Ever hear of going with the hot goalie?

    Roli is in a different place this year and I suspect falling apart due to playing too much is not a major problem.

  134. Scott says:

    Dennis:

    The game number is 20853

  135. Icecastles says:

    Did the Sharks commentator just call him “Slammy Gagner”? I like it.

  136. Jonathan Willis says:

    Can’t leave Michaelk alone in the slot like that. Good effort by Smid to get down, but not quite quick enough.

  137. Scott says:

    Oh dear. Good shot, bad turnover.

  138. Jonathan Willis says:

    Zorg!

  139. bookie says:

    That Sortini line is a great first line.

  140. Icecastles says:

    Yeeargh! Nice blue collar goal.

  141. Bruce says:

    Make that +19/-5 for Horpensky. Last game in San Jose that was the only line that was going for us.
    Bad turnover by Gilbert there, but he didn’t have enough support.

    Feed keeps freezing up.

  142. B.C.B. says:

    I love Zorg, more proof that SMac shouldn’t play.

  143. oilerdago says:

    Zorg!!!

  144. LittleFury says:

    Kneel before Zod.

  145. Coach pb9617 says:

    That was some fun work along the boards there, and probably a spot they don’t get in with the Euros on defense. So the discussion that LT and MC were having about GA the rest of the way – maybe that’s one?

    Stortini and Brodziak with a line brawl goal. Nice.

  146. Steve says:

    Big goal!

  147. Bruce says:

    ZOOOOOORG!!! Scoring ugly is the only way he knows how. :)

    That 28.6 Sh% looks kinda pretty though.

  148. Jonathan Willis says:

    Incidentally, the Grier/Peckham battle was a perfect example of a “saw him good” Peckham moment. He’s as strong as anyone, and I think once he settles in we’ll see the brain start to catch up with things.

    Of course, Strudwick’s inability to keep the puck in the zone led to the problem, but 49 better get used to it.

  149. Icecastles says:

    Predicted final score: 3-2 Edmonton.
    Predicted final shots: 95-11 in favour of San Jose.

  150. Steve says:

    That 28.6 Sh% looks kinda pretty though.

    SMac’s is better.

  151. Scott says:

    I bet Penzorgziak has even better numbers than Horpensky. So if we acquire Smyth and Walz we can run Horsmythsky, Penzorgziak, Pisoralz and Gagolianole! It’s perfect!

  152. Hemsky is a gangsta says:

    I picked up Stortini in my yahoo pool because I needed PIMS (I know it’s a bad stat) but benched him tonight because I thought Shane O’Brien would be more likely to stir stuff up against the Flames. With Elias, Staal, Samsonov and Roy all getting shutout that goal would have been nice…

  153. Jon says:

    “Robin Brownlee Reporting on Oilers Nation that: Caroilna, not Boston may be front runner for Cole at deadline. “

    I thought that you could not trade for a player that you have already traded within a year of the first trade. It’s the Dean McCammond rule when Calgary traded for him and he had to sit the rest of the season out due to this stipulation.

    Or was this rule erased in the new CBA?

  154. Jonathan Willis says:

    Nilsson’s flying tonight.

  155. Bruce says:

    By the way, Dennis, I’m in complete agreement on Mike Grier. Always loved him as a player and a person. Just a solid, reliable citizen who I continue to respect even in another uni. I hope he wins a Cup before he’s done.

    I well remember that epic race to the icing line in G5 in Denver in ’98 to enable the empty-netter. The Avs never scored another goal in the series as the Oilers took it to ‘em 9-0 over the last 7 periods.

  156. Coach pb9617 says:

    The kids are getting whacked around a little bit and it seems to be under their skin. Might be time to blend them back together to see what they come up with.

  157. relic says:

    yeah, the team toughness approach is really paying off for the oil tonight. good on klowe for outlining a plan and sticking to it.

  158. Icecastles says:

    For those who say that Edmonton’s last few wins don’t mean much because they are against lower-ranked or struggling teams, the effort so far tonight is a damn good rebuttal.

    Whether the Sharks are struggling or not, and whether the Oilers win or not, Edmonton are working their asses off.

  159. Scarlett says:

    Roli finally gets to bat the puck. He’s been itching to do that for a couple games now!

  160. Jonathan Willis says:

    Incidentally, in my comment above I wasn’t saying that Penner and Hemsky don’t deserve the totals they’ve posted; I was saying that Shawn Horcoff’s numbers on the year are the most interesting of the three.

  161. bookie says:

    I bet Penzorgziak has even better numbers than Horpensky. So if we acquire Smyth and Walz we can run Horsmythsky, Penzorgziak, Pisoralz and Gagolianole! It’s perfect!

    Good work on that Scott, I bet you missed half the period working on those names!

  162. Scarlett says:

    What a beautiful bounce! Cole!!!!

  163. oilerdago says:

    Eric Coooooolleee.

    After all the bad breaks – he deserved that one.

  164. Bruce says:

    Ha! Cole with his first point in 10 games. Slump buster!

  165. Scott says:

    It is written…

  166. Coach pb9617 says:

    Eric Cole is 82% more accurate when the puck is two feet off of the ice.

  167. bookie says:

    Clean win on that Draw by Penner, why dont we send him out to do that more often?

  168. Jonathan Willis says:

    I like this Penner as faceoff guy on the powerplay idea. Then again, I liked it in the offseason too.

  169. Icecastles says:

    To all the naysayers: Penner is the best fatso in the NHL.

  170. Bruce says:

    Incidentally, in my comment above I wasn’t saying that Penner and Hemsky don’t deserve the totals they’ve posted; I was saying that Shawn Horcoff’s numbers on the year are the most interesting of the three.

    JW: Yeah I got your drift. Horc’s extra workload has almost entirely come in the defensive end with inferior linemates, and doesn’t seem to have affected his results in a negative way at all.

  171. Phil says:

    Gilbert racking up the points in Vish’s abscence… 8 in his last 6.

  172. Coach pb9617 says:

    Clean win on that Draw by Penner, why dont we send him out to do that more often?

    He’s fat.

  173. Lowetide says:

    Up 2-1 after one against San Jose. I’ll take that 10 times out of 10.

    Tom Gilbert is a real nice player.

  174. Black Dog says:

    Two more assists for Tom Gilbert tonight.

    I heart Tom Gilbert.

    I wonder if he needs a butler.

    Nilsson flying again, huh? Second straight year where he’s woken up in February in time to save his job.

  175. Jonathan Willis says:

    This is kind of a lame piece that Comcast is doing on Brian Boucher, but I’ve got to say that I’m glad to see him enjoying some success.

    For a while there it looked like he’d used all of his luck up in a single playoff run with Philadelphia nad five games in Pheonix.

  176. bookie says:

    Gilbert racking up the points in Vish’s abscence… 8 in his last 6.

    I think its clear that Vish was just dragging down the play of the rest of the players on the team.

  177. Black Dog says:

    People talk about moving Tom Gilbert out for a big time winger.

    Can’t move this guy.

    He’s young and he’s getting better and he’s signed longterm.

    If a Dman gets moved in the summer and i’m not saying they should, but if they do, he’s the last guy they had better move.

  178. Bruce says:

    Boy, the points don’t come a whole lot cheaper than secondary assists on garbage goals like those two. He passed it to the guy who shot it in and got the bad bounce? Give that man a point.

    You know you’re on a roll when …

  179. kris says:

    This Comcast intermission has confirmed my belief that life is meaningless and devoid of joy.

  180. gary b says:

    love Mike Grier. tough as nails. remember the season he popped his shoulder on a big hit, but waited til the end of the season to have surgery. thing would pop out during games, he’d go back to the bench, get it popped back in, and get back out there.

  181. Jonathan Willis says:

    How do you guys rank the top-4 d? In terms of the order I’d trade them:

    Souray
    Gilbert
    Grebshkov*
    Visnovsky

    *conditional on him signing a reasonable mid/long-term deal. If he’s unwilling, swap Grebeshkov and Gilbert.

  182. Dennis says:

    I’m not sure if I’ll have the chances post up tonight; something weird seems to be going on with my sister’s comp and certain sites.

    But, I am logging the game and I’ll certainly have it entered by tomorrow evening if it doesn’t work tonight.

    1st period: 5-4; 4-4 EV; 1-0 ST. Chances recorded by 77-46-12-78-26

    Here’s what I saw from the first period.

    Sharks are hard-matching the Pavelski line vs 10 and in return are going Joe T vs 89 and then the new Marleau line vs 13. And there’a also going with the old Gentlemen’s Agreement of 4th line vs 4th line but are spicing it up by adding Marleau to that mix.

    I’ll only do this because there were only eight EV chances but here goes:

    - 1st SJ chance vs Joe T vs 89
    - 2nd SJ Marleau vs 13
    - 3rd and SJ goal; Pavelski vs 10
    - Oilers first and second chances – and subsequent goal – happen with 4th line vs 4th line; sans any Marleau boosting
    - Oilers chance breaks pattern with 89 chancing vs Marleau
    - Oilers next chance by 78 in the usual 13 vs Marleau match-up
    - SJ comes back with a chance by pavelski line vs 89-27-83 and basically that’s the match-up SJ wants.

    So, SJ’s idea to run Pavelski vs 10 worked in a chances for/against metric but we took advantage of their poor 4th line AND we got a PP goal to boot. Plus, Roli made a couple of dandy saves from slot opps.

    All that being said, SJ isn’t blowing me away or the Oilers for that matter. And Roli’s on a bit of a roll so, yeah, we’ve got a chance.

  183. Bruce says:

    Still … Gilbert now 5th among NHL defencemen in assists with 31. Obviously he’s doing something right.

  184. RiversQ says:

    Bruce: Regarding sample size, the only combination with pretty significant totals is 27-10-83. When you start to look at the rest of the picture to identify the straw (stirring the drink) it gets pretty hard. Especially with Hemsky’s injury combined with his miniscule TOI away from 27 AND 10.

    You knew that though.

  185. kris says:

    When we had Lindgren and Cherkawski, (sp?) in that infamous Dallas playoff series, did Grier play with them or Marchant? I can’t remember.

    I seem to remember Marchant playing with Weight at that point.

  186. Bruce says:

    RQ: Yeah, I know that. What I also know is that 27-10-83 are dynamite together, and I hope they stay that way for the foreseeable.

  187. RiversQ says:

    BTW, that was a legit period by the Oilers.

  188. Traktor says:

    What a shot.

  189. Jonathan Willis says:

    Error: Souray.

    But then again, we all knew he wouldn’t win a footrace with Patrick Marleau, even if he wasn’t starting from a dead stop.

  190. bookie says:

    Hey, for any of you who get frustrated by the game disappearing every time you click Lowetide, check out this program

    http://users.forthnet.gr/pat/efotinis/programs/deskpins.html

    it is the best ‘always on top’ tools I have ever used. It just gives you a little tack that you stick on the sceen and it stays on top while you work around it.

    I have used it with vista and XP

  191. Lowetide says:

    Damn. Goal by Marleau and now MAP gets the gate.

  192. Bruce says:

    Smid takes the Hit to make the play yet again. A very tough period so far.

  193. bookie says:

    A “Cache Creek” power play, The Rombus netcam.

    He scores a “Burger King” Goal. Its the “Dr. Grute” Faceoff….

  194. LittleFury says:

    Dirty, dirty stuff by Souray. Heh. Give him the C.

  195. Lowetide says:

    Brodziak with some nice effort there.

  196. kris says:

    Souray is cool

  197. Black Dog says:

    Bruce – yeah I remember too when Gilbert broke out of his early season slump it was in that road stretch where Hemsky had an end to end goal pretty well every game. There was one game where Gilbert had 2 or 3 assists and basically he just gave it to Ales and stood back.

    But fifth in the league in assists in his second year in the league?

    He’s good.

    JW – really, you would trade 77 before Lubo and Grebs?

    Lubo is the straw etc etc but my list would probably have Gilbert last, maybe second last before Lubo.

  198. Bruce says:

    Michalek punched Souray first. Somehow both Sharks annoucners missed that while they were dissing the refs for missing the retaliation.

Newer Comments »

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca