Deadline

The Edmonton Oilers arrive at the deadline with a team that has a real chance at the post-season. They have endured injury, bizarre coaching decisions, insane calls by the zebra’s and a management team that seems hellbent on supplying the head coach with options that he finds unusable.

I honestly don’t think there’s been a year like this one. A team that began with three goalies and now has only one, a team that relies heavily on offense from the blue, a team that lacks kings and aces up front but can still find a way to bury its most effective players.

The holes (as I see it) are scoring forward, checking center, 4-5D and a goalie the coach will actually play.

That’s a long list and that’s for sure. However, the important item is that the Oilers are buyers and that fact means today should be a very important one.

I know Craig MacTavish hopes Steve Tambellini can pull the trigger on some trades. We’ll know today.

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643 Responses to "Deadline"

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  1. Lord Bob says:

    We’re way, way too quick to appoint a 5’10″ kid with no more than twenty-two goals in a single season a first-line left wing.

    Listen. I like O’Sullivan. Great trade. But we can’t throw him up there instead of Penner and expect to get anywhere. Penner brings things that line needs and that O’Sullivan could never provide in a hundred years. Hemsky’s never been great with another skill guy, and Penner is so much at his best with 10 and 83 that I think it’s worth keeping Horpensky together.

  2. Smytty777 says:

    I don’t see any down side to this deal, realistically the Oilers realized great value for Cole.

    Both Kotalik and O’Sullivan are shooters which the Oilers have precious few of.

  3. Steve says:

    I don’t understand any negativity here. That’s insane value.

    I guess the only negativity would be how O’Sullivan’s deal looks in 2010-2011 after the cap falls. I’m hardly the best capologist here, but it looks like a reasonably good bet. If the cap falls far enough that under $3 million isn’t good value for O’Sullivan, he’s not likely to be top five on our list of questionable contracts.

  4. Dennis says:

    Rishaugh chimes in from Ott:

    - Kotalik will play with 10-83

    - MacT sees Sully as a guy who can take up some of the PK min usually afford to 10. Funny, I figured he’d replace the min that were being eaten by Cole;)

    - 27 likely to play off-wing on second line with Sully-89.

    - Rishaugh thinks it’s either 22-78-85 that comes out for Kotalik. He didn’t mention the possibility of 18 going on the OR and he didn’t think “there’s much of a difference in who plays between 22 or 78.”

    Well, MEOW!!!:D

    - Also said that 12′s the odd-man out right now.

  5. speeds says:

    to go further my last comment, I’m not sure if I wouldn’t have just kept the 2nd, and not acquired Kotalik if I were the Oilers and this deal were on the table. That said, I don’t know a ton about the guy, just based on my impressions.

    I haven’t checked the numbers out, but my gut impression would also be that I’d rather have claimed Satan on waivers and not acquired Kotalik, prefering Satan + 2nd to Kotalik.

    Then again, they may have some desire to sign Kotalik as a UFA, and see this as a good opportunity for a test drive while helping towards a playoff push?

  6. Scott says:

    Dennis:

    I think that’s more praise of 22 than damnation of 78. He said some nice things about 78 his first game back, too.

  7. Mark-Ryan says:

    Lord Bob: Like it or not, I think both Kotalik and O’Sullivan will get a ton of at-bats before Penner gets another look.

  8. Dennis says:

    Speeds: Eventually, the Oil are gonna have to find cheaper alternatives than 18 and 34 for those roles.

    I’d hope 78 will fill one of those and perhaps Kotalik could do the same if he shows well down the stretch.

    He looks like a 45 point guy who was low-event just two seasons ago. He seems to be worth a look if he doesn’t get pricey and, honestly, who’s gonna overpay an Ales Kotalik?

  9. Cloned says:

    Dennis:

    Never count out NYR-era Glen Sather when mentioning the words “overpay.”

  10. goldenchild says:

    Dennis says honestly, who’s gonna overpay an Ales Kotalik?

    Kevin Lowe?

  11. Dennis says:

    GC = Good people.

  12. LMHF#1 says:

    Offseason deal involving Nilsson and Penner going somewhere?

  13. speeds says:

    It’ll be interesting to take the time to look at EDM’s salary structure for next season.

    Add 2 mil for Horcoff, raises to the RFA’s will cost 3 mil, conservatively, I would imagine. Cole for O’Sullivan saves ~ 1 mil in cap, and then there is ~6.2 mil out the door in UFA’s Roloson and Kotalik. I didn’t include Strudwick, because his replacement will cost roughly the same whether it’s internal, a new 6/7 D, or Strudwick re-signs.

    That’s (conservatively?) 5 mil in extra costs and 7.2 mil saved vs. this year. If you let Kotalik go UFA, replace from within (at ~1 mil cost) and can sign Roloson (or someone else) for 2 mil, it opens up a whopping 800K in cap room compared to this year. That said, who knows where the cap will be – my understanding is that the cap is projected to rise very slightly, or stay stagnant, vs. this year’s cap limit.

    Maybe you re-sign Kotalik and trade Moreau and Staois, and play with the extra money, who knows, but there won’t be a ton of room for new additions barring a lot of player movement.

  14. speeds says:

    LMHF#1:

    funny you would say that, my thoughts when pondering the Oilers cap situation for next year were ” I think I’d move Moreau and Staios to open some cap room (obviously dependent on what is available, but as a general first thought), but I’m guessing the Oilers will move Penner and Nilsson.”

  15. OF17 says:

    God damn does Kotalik ever have a shot. Watch his goal highlights from this year. They’re beautiful.

  16. Cloned says:

    Tambellini says O’Sullivan is excited, he’s hopping on a plane right now.

    Doesn’t sound like he’s talked to Kotalik yet, but Kotalik should be available for tomorrow’s game.

  17. Scott says:

    Penner + Nilsson = 6.25M in cap space for a LW upgrade.

    Havlat might be available for 5M, but I’m not sure he would agree to a short term deal that makes sense for a team signing him.

  18. Cloned says:

    Sounds like Darcy Regier was willing to talk to Tambellini.

    “No issues there.” – Tambellini

  19. Dennis says:

    Speeds: that’s a nice initial look at the 2010 books. Maybe you can throw something up somewhere and detail it a little more and then paste the link.

    BTW, if katz wants things to work, he’s gonna have to farm guys like 18-24 and perhaps 34. Otherwise, guys like 22-46-51-78 are really gonna have to come up better. Then again, maybe Sully meshes with 89 and both have bounceback seasons and we’re OK.

    Finally, I’ve read that the 2010 cap should fall somewhere between 54-57 mill.

    I just watched the Kotalik goal highlights,too, BTW and a couple of things stuck me:

    - the guy has a wicked shot and I bet if we watched him all the time we’d be wondering why he hasn’t been a 30 goal scorer

    - he scores all his PP goals from basically the same place; about 10 feet outside the left FO circle.

    - MacT undoubtedly knows this because he’s putting him at LW with 10-83 but the guy scores an inordinate amount of goals from the LW considering he’s a RWer. You notice it right off the bat when you watch his reel.

    BTW, I listened to the presser and AK and 83 are buds and the latter was the very first person to let him know if the deal. Finally, DB posted his SO results and they are bought and fucking paid for. I watched his work and it’s effortless.

    Makes you think there’s a little something off with him; why hasn’t be earned full potential?

  20. jon k says:

    I think the knocks on Kotalik are the same as for Penner, to be honest.

    Plays small and soft for a big man. Intensity and consistency are often issues.

  21. OF17 says:

    Just from watching Kotalik’s highlights, I have no idea how he isn’t a 30-goal guy. Perhaps he’s been used incorrectly on the RW all these years, as that one-timer is deadly. Watching Kotalik and Souray on the PP blasting away is going to be a treat.

    I’m hopeful we can retain AK for cheap as well, considering that he’s friends with Hemsky and the UFA market is down right now.

  22. Bruce says:

    Eventually, the Oil are gonna have to find cheaper alternatives than 18 and 34 for those roles.

    Dennis: Kotalik is making $2.5 MM. However his next contract, wherever he signs, will surely be a significant discount. I’m speculating the bottom falls out on the middle class of the salary market real quick.

    Still, in five full seasons before this one he had exactly 100 goals (between 15-25 every year) and 104 assists, so he’s a legitimate 20-20 guy. Close to that pace at 13-19-32 this year. A lot of that is on the PP where he has scored 20 of his 36 goals over the last 1.75 seasons. I’m sure he has played quite a bit of (left) point, where he unloads a very heavy shot and occasionally even hits the net with it.

    Very moderate production at evens (1.16 EV P/60 this season), but he doesn’t really hurt you (a low minus player year after year, consistent with a guy who plays PP and goalie out situations but not PK and empty net situations and otherwise about breaks even).

    Well worth a look for 19 games. The hockey gods know we need help on our powerplay.

    O’Sullivan and Kotalik already rank 2-3 on the Oilers in shots on goal. Neither lets a small thing like a shitty shooting percentage (where they rank 19th and 17th respectively) get in their way.

    Watch our Corsi numbers start to improve, and PDO numbers to go the opposite way. Just sayin’. Maybe if we start to win more than 50.0% of our games, I’ll start to put some stock in one of those numbers being more important than the other.

  23. Coach pb9617 says:

    funny you would say that, my thoughts when pondering the Oilers cap situation for next year were ” I think I’d move Moreau and Staios to open some cap room (obviously dependent on what is available, but as a general first thought), but I’m guessing the Oilers will move Penner and Nilsson.”

    Moreau and Penner should be waived.

  24. OF17 says:

    The Oilers better have looked really hard at moving Penner today. I can see him being waived this summer, but I doubt someone takes him.

  25. Cloned says:

    It’s completely unsubstantiated, but apparently the Oilers offered Penner straight up for Smyth earlier today. Colorado declined.

  26. dawgbone says:

    Just saw a bunch of O’Sullivan highlights. At least 2 were PP Goals from the Horcoff/One Timer Position. However, that means nothing to Mac T.

    Kind of makes you wonder what he did with his 198 other shots to only score 12 goals doesn’t it?

    If Horcoff shot 7%, I’m sure someone would have burned his house down by now.

  27. Cloned says:

    Hemsky and Kotalik are apparently friends. Kotalik found out he was traded first from Hemsky.

  28. reijo29 says:

    Looks like Rishaug called the lines for tomorrow.

    Kotalik-10-83
    O’Sullivan-89-27or78
    27or78-13-34
    22-51-46

    Both new guys said they could play all positions in the conference call.

    O’Sullivan likely taking Cole’s PK time.

    Interesting to hear that Hemmer informed Kotalik of the trade, that may be a good sign for 2 reasons: management keeping Hemmer involved in decsions, Hemmer excited about a winger other then Hossa.

    Wonder if Nilsson finds it ironic that both guys we acquired wear #12.

  29. Coach pb9617 says:

    It’s completely unsubstantiated, but apparently the Oilers offered Penner straight up for Smyth earlier today. Colorado declined.

    Then both sides are Rrrrrrr, hm, can’t use that word.

    They’re both Rrrrrrr. Man, that fits.

    Both sides are lobotimized.

  30. Woodguy says:

    Hemsky and Kotalik are apparently friends. Kotalik found out he was traded first from Hemsky.

    This is huge.

    If Ales H called Ales K even before Darcy R did, then Ales H was close to the management on this deal, and will take ownership of it.

    Further, Ales K said in the presser that he and Ales H have been friends for a long time and have always wanted to play together.

    A refreshed, rejuvenated, happy Ales H is HUGE for this team.

    If he gets an extra spring in his skating stride and takes ownership of helping get Ales K here, he is going to bust his ass to make it work.

    An ass busting Ales H is worth 1.5pts/game.

    Good times.

  31. Bank Shot says:

    Horcoff will never receive another pass.

  32. NBOilerFan says:

    Where are you guys watching the presser annd player highlights?

    I can’t get any links to work on Oilers.com… saying connection error?

  33. Cloned says:

    Just call it the Ales2Horc line.

  34. Lowetide says:

    Coach: Thank you. Seriously. I very much appreciate it.

  35. Coach pb9617 says:

    So if these moves fail and the Oilers finish in 10th…the coach is gone, right?

  36. Lowetide says:

    No. Penner will be sent to an Amway farm.

  37. Coach pb9617 says:

    No. Penner will be sent to an Amway farm.

    Screw it. I’m getting an Amway #27 jersey.

  38. godot10 says:

    //Sounds like Darcy Regier was willing to talk to Tambellini.
    “No issues there.” – Tambellini//

    Upon further review, Vanek is now a bargain, whom Regier has signed long term on a very reasonable contract.

  39. Oilmaniac says:

    The army of midgets grows stronger each minute.

    BAWW HAHAHAHAHA…..

  40. Scott says:

    Speeds: that’s a nice initial look at the 2010 books. Maybe you can throw something up somewhere and detail it a little more and then paste the link.

    Dennis, I did this for the NW division as a whole earlier today and did one specific to the Oilers a couple of weeks ago, although now they’re slightly behind with the addition of O’Sullivan.

    http://gospelofhockey.blogspot.com/2009/03/nw-at-deadline-looking-ahead-to-2010-11.html

    http://gospelofhockey.blogspot.com/2009/02/budgeting-for-2010-11-cap.html

  41. pboy says:

    I can’t believe that there was an offer of Smyth for Penner straight up and that Colorado turned it down. They would be getting the younger, cheaper player in the deal, so it really would make no sense for them not to take it. Gonna have to call bullshit on that one.

  42. Coach pb9617 says:

    They would be getting the younger, cheaper player in the deal, so it really would make no sense for them not to take it.

    Better.

    You forgot better.

  43. Ribs says:

    bookie said….
    So, choose your prediction

    1. big shocking trade for Oilers
    2. something small (i.e. cole or nilsson for a rental)
    3. A buy (picks/prospects for a rental or a longer term player)
    4. A sell (Cole or someone for Picks or Prospects)
    5. SFA – Nothing of consequence….

    Whats it going to be?? – choose your combo!!

    ribs said….
    bookie – I’ll take a little bit of 2 and a bit of 3.

    My no prize still hasn’t shown up, bookie.

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