Desjardins NHLE for NCAA

Riley Nash had a nice season with the Cornell Big Red, as they came within a game of making the Frozen Four. Nash improved season over season, although the Edmonton Oilers have suggested they’re not pleased with his progress.

There are 5 Oilers prospects in the NCAA at this time, with Nash leading the way followed by two very nice prospects (Jeff Petry and Chris Vande Velde) and rounded out by 2 marginal talents (Matt Glasser and Robby Dee).

Every season I like to list each league’s Oiler prospects and their Desjardins NHL equivalencies. For those new to the process, this is an estimate of production based on the player getting the exact same treatment in the NHL as he does in his current league. Same minutes, same time on the PP, same quality of linemates and on it goes.

The estimate was spot-on for Andrew Cogliano’s NCAA numbers, so I put quite a bit of emphasis on these numbers.

First, let’s list the NHLE’s (per 82gp)from two years ago:

2006-07
  1. C Andrew Cogliano 17-19-36 (19)
  2. R David Rohlfs 11-11-22 (22)
  3. D Taylor Chorney 6-15-21 (19)
  4. R Colin McDonald 10-3-13 (22)
  5. D Cody Wild 5-7-12 (19)
  6. C Geoff Paukovich 5-7-12 (20)
  7. C Chris VandeVelde 2-4-6 (19)
  8. L Matt Glasser 0-0-0 (19)

2007-08

  1. C Riley Nash 11-19-30 (18)
  2. C Chris Vande Velde 12-13-25 (20)
  3. D Cody Wild 4-19-23 (20)
  4. D Jeff Petry 2-17-19 (20)
  5. D Taylor Chorney 2-17-19 (20)
  6. L Matt Glasser 5-3-8 (20)
  7. C Robby Dee 1-3-4 (20)

2008-09

  1. C Riley Nash 12-22-34 (19)
  2. C Chris Vande Velde 14-13-27 (21)
  3. D Jeff Petry 2-10-12 (21)
  4. C Robby Dee 6-5-11 (21)
  5. L Matt Glasser 3-3-6 (21)

At first blush it looks like Nash and Cogliano are similar offensive talents, their 19 year old college seasons are very close. However, Nash’s club scored 92 goals in 36 games (2.56 GF per game) and Cogliano’s scored 174 goals in 41 games (4.24GF per game).

Other things that stand out are that Chris Vande Velde ran in place; Jeff Petry’s offense fell off badly, as his team’s offense disappeared (GF went from 135 in 42 gp–3.21GF per game to 62 in 38gp–1.63GF per game, a ghastly total) with the graduating class of 2008.

There will no doubt be some talk about all three Oilers prospects signing this summer, but with the exception of Nash I don’t see any Oiler prospect leaving on a high-water mark in 2009.

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