It was a memorable season for Jordan Eberle. Was it a good one?
In his draft season (as a 17-year old), Eberle scored 42-33-75 in 70gp, making his point-per game total 1.07 for the year.
This season (as an 18-year old), he scored 35-39-74 in 61gp, making his point-per-game total 1.21 for the year.
This is not a strong season-over-season progression. Ales Hemsky went from 1.47 pre-draft to 1.83 in the following season. Sam Gagner didn’t play in junior at 18 and his 17-year old season towers over Hemsky’s let alone Eberle’s.
Let’s look a little deeper to see if math can tell us more. In his draft (17) season, Eberle’s team scored 217 goals in 72gp (3.01/game). This season? 228 in 72gp (3.17/game) which is a slight increase.
What about special teams? In his draft (17) season, Eberle’s PP numbers were 16-14-30 and his PK numbers were 1-0-1. His EV totals were 70gp, 25-19-44. That works out to .628/game.
This season, Eberle’s PP numbers were 12-24-36 and his PK numbers were 3-2-5. His EV totals were 61gp, 20-13-33. That works out to .541/game.
Finally, let’s run Eberle’s 18-year old season (the one that was just completed) through Desjardins (per 82gp) and compare that to some recent Oilers selections at the same age:
- Gagner (actual NHL performance) 13-36-49
- Stoll 16-26-42
- Hemsky 12-30-42
- Schremp 16-20-36
- Pouliot 14-18-32
- Eberle 14-16-30
- Nash 11-19-30
- Cogliano 10-14-24
Given Riley Nash’s other reported skills, I think the Cornell center is still the best prospect in the system. Reports have Eberle heading to the AHL this week, it’ll be interesting to see how much offense he can generate in a very tough league.