Eberle’s Season

It was a memorable season for Jordan Eberle. Was it a good one?

In his draft season (as a 17-year old), Eberle scored 42-33-75 in 70gp, making his point-per game total 1.07 for the year.

This season (as an 18-year old), he scored 35-39-74 in 61gp, making his point-per-game total 1.21 for the year.

This is not a strong season-over-season progression. Ales Hemsky went from 1.47 pre-draft to 1.83 in the following season. Sam Gagner didn’t play in junior at 18 and his 17-year old season towers over Hemsky’s let alone Eberle’s.

Let’s look a little deeper to see if math can tell us more. In his draft (17) season, Eberle’s team scored 217 goals in 72gp (3.01/game). This season? 228 in 72gp (3.17/game) which is a slight increase.

What about special teams? In his draft (17) season, Eberle’s PP numbers were 16-14-30 and his PK numbers were 1-0-1. His EV totals were 70gp, 25-19-44. That works out to .628/game.

This season, Eberle’s PP numbers were 12-24-36 and his PK numbers were 3-2-5. His EV totals were 61gp, 20-13-33. That works out to .541/game.

Finally, let’s run Eberle’s 18-year old season (the one that was just completed) through Desjardins (per 82gp) and compare that to some recent Oilers selections at the same age:

  1. Gagner (actual NHL performance) 13-36-49
  2. Stoll 16-26-42
  3. Hemsky 12-30-42
  4. Schremp 16-20-36
  5. Pouliot 14-18-32
  6. Eberle 14-16-30
  7. Nash 11-19-30
  8. Cogliano 10-14-24

Given Riley Nash’s other reported skills, I think the Cornell center is still the best prospect in the system. Reports have Eberle heading to the AHL this week, it’ll be interesting to see how much offense he can generate in a very tough league.

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35 Responses to "Eberle’s Season"

  1. rickibear says:

    The real queastion is who was the best 18 yr old prospect this year.

    Hatikainen: 15G 5A in last 28GM in SM-Ligga.
    Cornet: 1.22PT/GM Top 15 scoring in the Q
    Eberle. 1.21 PT/GM top 25 scoring in the Dub.

    Their Desjardins the same?

  2. rider guy says:

    Strange year for the entire Rats organization. The Rats were contending for the division title before Ebs and Teubert went to the World Jrs. They went into a free fall while they were gone and could never pull out of it, eventually missing the playoffs altogether. Teubert’s game was so bad he was a healthy scratch several times. The whole Rats squad sounded like as dysfunctional an organization as you could find. Hopefully Ebs seeming lack of progress can be attributed to the negative momentum that crippled this team in the last 3 months and nothing more.

  3. Smarmy Boss says:

    The Pats won all of 8 games in the second half of the season.

    Eberle must have had a huge let down returning to Regina from the WJC because he was pretty bad.

    Compare his season to Oiler’s draft pick and fellow divisional rival Milan Kytnar. (Poor guy didn’t even make HF’s top 20)

    Kytnar did it all for the Blades this year and only got better when he returned from the Slovakian team.

  4. Bruce says:

    Hard to fold it into the numbers I suppose, but any review of Eberle’s season surely must include his performance at the World Junior. 6 GP, 6-7-13, including the biggest goal of the tournament at the most critical time imaginable. Making the team, winning the title, and making a Huge contribution in the process are the biggest positives of his season. Far better that than piling up a bunch of points in Regina over the holidays.

    SB: I’m liking what I see of Kytnar as well.

  5. oilerdago says:

    LT – just wondering why you would not include Eberle’s numbers from the world’s in his boxcars as well.

    If I’m not mistkaten he went 6-7-13 which does improve his overall’s (though as you’ve pointed out – he still did not take a giant leap forward this season).

    Also, if he’s 18, how is it he can play in the AHL (I thought you could not jump from juniors to the AHL) until you were 19?

  6. Smarmy Boss says:

    Eberle did shine on the big stage, and I’m guessing Regina was a downer of a place to play.

    Being a Blades season ticket holder I love seeing the Pats do horrible almost as much as the Raiders being miserable.

    In the second half the games I saw of Eberle he was largely invisible with his 16 year old line mate Jordan Weals looking like the guy driving the line as a whole.

    Then again, every once in awhile Eberle would get the puck and do something jaw dropping that shows you what kind of player he can be.

  7. Lowetide says:

    oilerdago: Well they’re different leagues and all of the other numbers are from junior, so if we’re comparing seasons it is best to keep them as close to uniform as possible (understanding that scoring rates vary and that TOI is the great unknown).

    Eberle can play in the AHL. I believe it’s call a PTO (professional tryout) and JF Jacques certainly did so one season he was in junior.

  8. Smarmy Boss says:

    Don’t see the CHL having a problem with a kid like Eberle getting a chance in the AHL considering his team is eliminated from the playoffs.

  9. oilerdago says:

    Thanks for explaining LT. I like Eberle getting a shot to play some in Springfield with Daum behind the bench if nothing more than to see how he would handle a higher level of competition.

    Could also give us a sense for whether he really can compete for a slot next season.

    While Springfield’s record is not much better than it was under Truitt, they seem to be more competitive under his system. That would help his development too.

  10. Boondock says:

    Saw Eberle live this year. I see him very much as a Joffrey Lupul type player. He doesn’t create very much on his own, but if you get the puck to him in a scoring position, he can bury it.

    He’s not strong at all and I think will have some big-time growing pains at the next level.

    I like Nash more as well, LT. Will be interesting to see if he wants to turn pro this summer.

  11. Scott says:

    Breaking the numbers down with other information on your site leads to a bit of a concern:

    First 23gp: 16-15-31 1.35ppg
    Last 38gp: 19-24-43 1.13ppg

    Those splits look a little bit like the ones that Slava Trukhno had in the Q, although Eberle certainly scores more goals and his problems don’t seem to have been injury related.

  12. jon k says:

    I was arguing regarding Eberle’s projection as an NHLer with a friend recently.

    The main issue I have is that he hasn’t shown nearly enough of an improvement in his 18 year old season.

    For an impact prospect, you really do need to see substantial improvement year over year (Eberle’s improvements are insufficient) for them merely to keep pace with the field of other blue chippers.

    As it stands, I couldn’t see him as any more than a 2nd liner who relies heavily on the PP to hit 30 goals and 50 points in the NHL. And that’s the Oiler fan in me saying that.

  13. Bank Shot says:

    Patrick O’Sullivan is probably a good top end for Eberle.

    Erberle just hasn’t been a stand out when I’ve seen him in juniors which makes a guy nervous.

  14. PunjabiOil says:

    To be fair, Riley Nash hasn’t progressed to the level many of us hoped. He has 30 points in 31 games – Chris Higgins as a 19 year old, lead YALE with 41 points in 28 games.

    Eberle did lead the team in scoring, but Weal could overtake him next year. Eberle’s numbers seem pale in comparison to Joffrey Lupul (who cleared 1.5PPG as both a 17 and 18 year old). We should be fair though – this Regina squad was pretty terrible.

    As for the WJC, I’m not going to get really excited about it. He played with top players (Hodgson, Taveres), and was too much of a floater for my liking.

    Jordan Eberle can score goals. So could Gilbert Brule.

  15. PunjabiOil says:

    On another note, the Oil Kings failed to get a point in the final two games, and will now play a sudden death tiebreaker playoff game in Prince Albert on Tuesday.

    Like father, like son.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Nash has actually made good progress.

    07-08 36gp, 12-20-32 .889
    He scored 32 points on a club that popped 102 goals. That’s 31% of the overall offense.

    08-09 31gp, 12-18-30 .968
    He scored 30 points on a club that has scored 80 goals. That’s 37.5% of the overall offense.

    Higgins at 18 btw
    27gp, 14-17-31 1.15
    He scored 31 points on a team that scored 93. That’s 33% of the overall offense.

    Higgins remains a very good comp imo.

  17. rider guy says:

    Thanks for that Boondock. I just threw up in my mouth.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Cornell wins tonight 4-3. I believe Riley Nash had some points (3 assists) but have not read an official boxscore and this is the internet.

    We wait.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Nash went 0-3-3 +1 in the win tonight over RPI. His numbers for the year are now:

    32gp, 12-21-33

    And some splits:

    First 12 games: 4-4-8 .667
    Second 11 games: 5-8-13 1.18
    Third 9 games: 3-9-12 1.33

  20. Jonathan Willis says:

    And this is why I read Lowetide. A great article, and a comments section well worth wading into.

  21. Mr DeBakey says:

    From the website

    Riley Nash had three helpers for the Big Red.

    And for Free Agent fans:

    Cornell netminder Ben Scrivens stopped 31 shots for the victory, his 20th of the season.

    http://cornellbigred.com/news/2009/3/15/MICE_0315091602.aspx

  22. Jonathan Willis says:

    Just to go a little further on Rickibear’s comment, here’s a slightly more detailed comparison of Eberle/Cornet.

    Jordan Eberle: 74 points in 61 games (1.21 PTS/GM) and -4 on a team that went 228GF/265GA. That means Eberle contributed 32.5% of the total offense, and was -4 on a team that was -37.

    Philippe Cornet: 77 points in 63 games (1.22 PTS/GM) ans -2 on a team that went 267GF/223GA. That means that Cornet contributed 28.8% of the total offense, and was -4 on a team that was +44.

    What to make of it all? Eberle’s having a disappointing year (Tournament of Small Sample Size excepted, of course) while Cornet’s having a good one, but Eberle’s well ahead of him in all areas (as we would expect). Not nearly as far ahead of him as he should be, but then Cornet looks much better by the boxcars than he has much right to be.

    If Cornet has the defensive game to match his reputation, Bill Dandy may have snagged another good one out of the Q.

    And Eberle’s almost certianly overrated by the fanbase in general, based on the Tournament of Small Sample Size.

  23. Clarkenstein says:

    Sounds like Eberle played for possibly the worst coach in Junior Hockey this year. Regina had a chance to hire Habscheid and picked Derkatch… nice move. I wouldn’t get too excited yet, however, having said that I think the guy is just too small to be the kind of return on investment the Oil think he is.

  24. Bruce says:

    I think the guy is just too small to be the kind of return on investment the Oil think he is.

    Same held for Derkatch himself, now that you mention him. He too was drafted by the Oilers, a prodigious offensive talent in a tiny body.

  25. knighttown says:

    But isn’t a talented player with some holes exactly what you’d expect for a late first rounder? I mean, there are some nice names after him (Tedenby, John Carlson) but the only guy I’d clearly take on a do over would be Jacob Markstrom.

    We need to temper out enthusiasm and if the guy can contribute when he’s 21 then great.

  26. Doogie2K says:

    On another note, the Oil Kings failed to get a point in the final two games, and will now play a sudden death tiebreaker playoff game in Prince Albert on Tuesday.

    Like father, like son.

    They’d better show their asses up, then. I’ve been eagerly anticipating a CGY-EDM playoff series for a couple of weeks and will be sorely disappointed if we get PA instead.

    As for Eberle, what I saw here in Calgary wasn’t terribly inspiring in the second half. I think he had one pretty nice goal early in one game, and then I barely noticed him the rest of the night, except when his big #7 was right in my face on a couple of PPs and I couldn’t miss him. ;) Does make you wonder whether the WJC kids suffered because the team went into a tailspin, or if the team went into a tailspin because the WJC kids spent the last four months of the season in Ottawa.

  27. Shannon says:

    Here’s an interesting comparison for you:

    Ryan Getzlaf.

    numbers in the year he was drafted:
    70 gp, 29 + 39 = 68 pts 121 pim
    ppg = .971

    subsequent year
    49 gp, 28 + 47 = 75 pts 97 pim
    ppg = 1.53

    final year of jr.
    51 gp 29 + 25 = 54 pts 102 pim
    ppg = 1.06

    An obvious digression and from what I heard he showed a high level of boredom from being sent down and he didn’t compete.

    so, just maybe … all is not lost … just yet

  28. Jonathan Willis says:

    Shannon: Although in fairness, Ryan Getzlaf not only led his team in scoring his final year of junior, but was +22 on a team that was only +17 (hard to do!)

    Point taken, though.

  29. Doogie2K says:

    An obvious digression and from what I heard he showed a high level of boredom from being sent down and he didn’t compete.

    This is true. It was the year before I became a STH, but I did go to handful of games, and I remember that he was actually stripped of his captaincy at one point for basically not giving a shit. He got it back a few games later once he woke up and started trying again.

    I’m not sure if it’s a good or bad thing if Eberle got bored with Regina after the WJC. On the one hand, he accomplished what he needed to accomplish and was ready to move on. On the other hand, you work with what you’ve got; that’s the essence of being a professional. Maybe he had a hard time adapting to lesser ‘mates again. I dunno, the season splits don’t seem to show anything quite like that in the counting numbers, anyway: is stagnation really the same as what happened with Getzlaf?

  30. Doogie2K says:

    I dunno, the season splits don’t seem to show anything quite like that in the counting numbers, anyway

    Or maybe it did, a little, now that I scroll up and refresh my memory. I thought the numbers were a lot closer than that.

  31. Traktor says:

    Omark is the top prospect in the organization.

    I’m not a Pouliot fan but if I was I’d be pissed today.

  32. IceDragoon says:

    Good day.

    Over the years I’ve learned not underestimate big brains. Occasionally some will flame out, but for the most part, these guys determine what they want early in life and then utilize every resource possible to get it. Overachievers R Us, if you will.

    I think Jonathan’s Tournament of Small Sample Size adjusts the perspectives of its participants. Most are front line scorers at home, but have to buy-in to the team defense needed to win the tournament. The really smart buggers tend to continue working on their complete games once back at home.

    I recall many people bemoaning Cogliano’s game after his first WJCs. His counting numbers took a hit, but coach Berenson had no worries. He was very impressed with Cogs’ commitment to continue learning the defensive side of the game.

    Jordan Eberle started learning to kill penalties at the ToSSS. He was pretty good too, imho, and has since been a PK regular for the Pats.

    Looks like progress to me, but then, I thought the same about Cogliano.

    L8r
    Louise

  33. oilerdago says:

    Traktor: I may be the only 78 fan left and I’m not happy about this.

    The kid gets HS’d (not saying it was not deserved when it happened), but he comes back, get’s 2 points in 3 games and holds his own. And for that? It’s back to the PB.

    While MacT has done a good job at developing some of the kids this is one I believe he’s missed on. Completely.

    I can see him eventually going somewhere else and being another Dan Cleary.

  34. Jonathan Willis says:

    Jordan Eberle started learning to kill penalties at the ToSSS. He was pretty good too, imho, and has since been a PK regular for the Pats.

    That was a big surprise for me – not only that Eberle was used there, but that he looked pretty good doing it.

  35. Doogie2K says:

    @Louise: That’s a good counterargument that I hadn’t really considered. I do remember, now that you point it out, that he was pretty solid on the PK, and that he was out there shorthanded the one or two games I saw him in Calgary after the tourney.

    Guess it’s easy to forget sometimes with these prospects that make their name as scorers that it’s not just about the counting stats, which is ironic, considering your biggest worry is always that they’re the ones who forget.

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