Oilers at Leafs, G65/08-09

The best player I ever saw skate for the Leafs was this man, Dave Keon. If you look at his stats and never saw him play it might be a mystery.

Dave Keon was an amazing skater, and because of it was a splendid forechecker and an out-of-this-world penalty killer. On April 13, 1963 Dave Keon became the first player to score two shorthanded goals in a playoff game.

Keon had an amazing backhand and could pass and make a pass on the fly with stunning consistency. He was, in many ways, the perfect player.

I always loved to watch Keon penalty kill. He was so fast and read plays so well that teams often had a terrible time getting out of their own end. Keon was also textbook when it came to bodychecking. A small player (even for his era), Keon completed his checks and made certain that the passer was not an available option for those very important seconds after a pass. I remember seeing him do that to both defenders on the penalty kill and still being able to get back in time to make plays in his own zone.

He was a beauty.
Andrew Cogliano has many of the qualities Keon possessed: wonderful foot speed, an ability to read plays and he’s a fine passer too. I don’t know Cogliano’s “hockey IQ” but do know the Oilers measure intelligence in drafting and that Cogliano is one of the “off the charts” fellows (along with Gagner and a couple of others).

I’ve felt for a long time that Cogliano will belong to the “Dave Keon-Ralph Backstrom-Butch Goring” family of undersized centers who have a wide range of skills. This season has been difficult for him and his secondary numbers are not progressing as we had all hoped they would during his second season.

As a rookie, Cogliano improved markedly on his boxcars from the first to second half:

  • First 41: 7-12-19 (.463) -6
  • Second 41: 11-15-26 (.634) +7

His 5×5/60 point total was 2.28 and Desjardins estimated that during Cogliano’s rookie season he was a -11.7 Corsi while playing softer opposition with secondary linemates. His GF/GA ON a year ago was 41-42.

This year he’s not showing the same trends in the second half:

  • First 41: 12-10-22 (.537) -1
  • Second 23: 3-7-10 (.435) -4

Cogliano’s 5×5/60 is down (1.78) but not a disaster, his Corsi has improved to -3.5 and it looks to me like he’s batting in the same spot in the order as we was a year ago (in terms of toughness and linemates). Cogliano’s 5×5/60 GF/GA ON is 27-28 this season.

I think he’s made a little progress and he is most certainly a valuable young player. I do believe the Oilers should use him (as Keon was used) as a prime penalty killing option for this team. It should be a role he can fill easily and that will have an impact on Shawn Horcoff’s minutes. However, the trade for Patrick O’Sullivan seems to have been (partly) designed to take those Horcoff PK minutes, so perhaps there’s something we’re not seeing from this end in regard to Cogs on the PK.

There’s also a few chapters to write in this season and Cogliano has been the most consistent of the young guns. Should he get hot (as Sam Gagner appears to be doing now) we may be able to begin slotting him in somewhere along the axis of the Dave Keon family.

And that is a helluva family of hockey players.

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245 Responses to "Oilers at Leafs, G65/08-09"

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  1. Ribs says:

    But I would definetely give Staios a star in that game.

    He also ended up playing 28:19 of ice time and came out at evens. Superb game from him.

  2. Ribs says:

    Smid with a mild concussion…Oy…

  3. Scarlett says:

    Staios played well, I agree but Hemsky got the team going in the second.

  4. pboy says:

    I think my favorite Souray moment was a few weeks ago (I think it was against the Kings) and Cogliano won a faceoff back to Souray who blasted a goal past the netminder and instead of celebrating his goal he skated over and patted Cogs on the head and told him it was a great faceoff. I couldn’t help thinking that that is what you expect out of your captain…..

    P.S. How much fun is to watch Pisani go about his business out there?

  5. Coach pb9617 says:

    Erik Cole with a four point night.

  6. Scarlett says:

    I remember Souray giving Cogs the kudos. How great of him! I thought Cogs played well tonight too!

  7. geowal says:

    Columbus is looking like a team built for the playoffs. If I’m a top seed team I think they’re the one I hope to avoid.

  8. Scarlett says:

    Or how about Detroit? I don’t think teams are as scared to play them in the playoffs as they were a few weeks ago.

  9. rider guy says:

    A question for the the guys that don’t like Staios…

    Admittedly Staios’ game has dropped off this year, but is the criticism of Staios related to

    - his game
    - his contract
    - the fact that he and The Captain are attached at the hip?

    To me, he’s still serviceable as a 6th d-man, but the contract is terrible for a guy playing that role. At times he seems to be the only d-man we have who is willing to go down to block shots etc. For me, I think I could live with his game for 12-15 minutes a night with a friendlier contract. I think it’s the Moreau connection that has me most down on 24 though. Thoughts?

  10. Dennis says:

    Scarlett: I really didn’t see the Oilers doing a whole lot the whole night and I had the 2rd period chances 3-8 so that sounds about right to me.

  11. HBomb says:

    rider guy: For me, it’s the contract and the contract primarily.

    Although, the Moreau connection is secondary – I’m a believer that we need a change in primary leadership from Moreau/Staios/Roloson to Souray/Horcoff/Hemsky.

  12. geowal says:

    Or how about Detroit? I don’t think teams are as scared to play them in the playoffs as they were a few weeks ago

    True enough, with an 8-2 game there’s no middle ground. One team looks fantastic and the other brutal.

    That game aside, Columbus just seems like such a tightly organized team, good checking, and will be able to transfer their game to the playoffs nicely.
    If we do well in the playoffs, it’ll be because Mact completely reorganizes our game every series, not because what we’re doing now is overly effective.

  13. Scarlett says:

    Yes, he’s a good 6th man but he’s playing not 6th man minutes. He’s on the second pairing. While tonight he was good, this has been quite rare this season.

  14. Dennis says:

    http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3091

    A terrible night for 44.

  15. Coach pb9617 says:

    Penner had 8 minutes tonight. Outchanced the opps 4-2.

    Gagner 1-7
    O’Sullivan 2-7
    Pouliot 2-5
    Kotalik 4-7

    Best of luck to Craig MacTavish in this stretch run.

  16. HBomb says:

    I want Columbus to get sixth if we can’t get it. I think they’d give Calgary a hell of a time to the point that I’d like their chances to pull the upset.

  17. HBomb says:

    This Penner stuff is getting fucking stupid. He and Nilsson, the whipping boys.

  18. Scarlett says:

    Yet Reddox keeps his ice-time while Penner/Nilsson get shafted. Gotta love playing favorites!

  19. HBomb says:

    Reddox is deserving of his ice, that’s not the issue.

    Penner’s not deserving of a benching though.

  20. Scarlett says:

    Penner needs to buy some jam and wave it in MacT’s face during the game.

  21. oilerdago says:

    rider guy: I think you’ve probably asked/answered the question on Staios in your comment.

    He’s a 3rd pair d-man getting paid 2nd pair money. No one here I think has ever criticized his heart or his toughness. His abilities though are not what they once were to be able to play tough match-ups/big minutes anymore.

    But don’t confuse the “awesome” scoring prowess of Toronto with other teams. He’s now having to play the toughs with Viz down and it’s like playing with fire – sooner or later you’ll get burned.

    Re: Moreau, and this is just my opinion. My issue with him is that he makes far too many dumb, selfish plays to be of great value and it’s obvious since he’s been out that Cogs has looked much better not having that anchor on his line.

  22. Dennis says:

    The Oil have way too many forwards right now and that’s why I wasn’t that jacked about picking up Kotalik.

    I suspect 78 will get another cap in Mtl but unless he scores or plays really well, 12 will come back in on Thurs night.

    Speaking of the forward corps, I’m not saying Cole would’ve light it up for us but at least he had settled in a little and was starting to play well.

    19′s having an off-season as it is and now he’s trying to fit in with a new team as well.

  23. Coach pb9617 says:

    This Penner stuff is getting fucking stupid. He and Nilsson, the whipping boys.

    The great part, if you’re an Oiler fan is that the coach is again cutting off his nose to spite his face. Benching Penner and promoting Reddox means the team is back to absolutely no one to play the secondary tough minutes.

    But, hey, Penner is fat, so I guess it’s okay.

    Is there any chance that MacTavish is still on probation? Is there a possibility that a slip-up could send him to jail for an extended period?

  24. Coach pb9617 says:

    Without looking, tell me the player behind these time on ice with numbers:

    SHAWN HORCOFF 104:15:00
    KYLE BRODZIAK 84:37:00
    DUSTIN PENNER 76:09:00
    ERIK COLE 69:26:00
    ANDREW COGLIANO 68:22:00

    SHELDON SOURAY 131:24:00
    TOM GILBERT 128:37:00
    STEVE STAIOS 112:46:00
    DENIS GREBESHKOV 96:10:00

  25. Lord Bob says:

    Penner needs to buy some jam and wave it in MacT’s face during the game.

    Like Dustin Penner could hold off on eating delicious jam that long.

    The reason Erik Cole was so sad to be traded was that he and Penner were going to get together and buy Tony Roma’s. Luckily for Cole, he got out before Dustin Penner decided to find out once and for all who really has the best ribs in North America…

  26. Ribs says:

    I have no clue but I’ll guess Reddox for fun.

    A terrible night for 44.

    He looked half asleep from the drop of the puck. I’m glad that this game was against TO.

    I was trying to watch the new guys closer and I was pretty happy with Kotalik. He seems to read the play well and pulled off a couple of nice defensive plays. If he can find his way onto the scoresheet he may become a very good guy to have around. He seems a bit more varsatile than Cole was.

    O’Sullivan still looks lost.

  27. docweb says:

    I want Columbus to get sixth if we can’t get it. I think they’d give Calgary a hell of a time to the point that I’d like their chances to pull the upset,

    Either them or Vancouver. I don’t think anyone would want to play Van the way they are playing now. Plus at least one of Van/Calgary for sure would be out after the first.

    I’m not bitter at all.

  28. HBomb says:

    Either them or Vancouver. I don’t think anyone would want to play Van the way they are playing now. Plus at least one of Van/Calgary for sure would be out after the first.

    Ummm, downside to that….

    Calgary and Vacouver have met in the first round three times. 1989, 1994, 2004.

    Series has gone seven games, with all three seventh games going to OT.

    The winner of that series has gone to the Cup final each time.

    Now, I don’t know about you guys, but I’d prefer to see both the Canucks and Flames get dusted in the first round, thank you very much.

  29. Dennis says:

    Doc: no worries, bud. Every year I watch the playoffs with a mental check-list of teams that have to be eliminated before I can rest:)

    You know, MacT seems to be taking this year to take some pounds of flesh from first 5 and now 27.

    27 our best LW and he should be playing with 10-83 but MacT won’t put him back there. And it’s odd because now that we’ve got other lines chipping in, it’s the top line that we’re looking to.

    And, yes, always nice to watch 34 play. So fucking smart and almost always in the right place.

  30. docweb says:

    Detroit bombed and SJ getting it handed to them again tonight…if both of those teams are out in the first round it could make for a very long spring for us Van/Flames haters!!

  31. Steve says:

    Erik Cole with a four point night.

    I don’t care how well Cole does for the rest of the year; this isn’t the Oilers’ year, and that trade improved the team going forward. Either he would have bolted as a UFA (which seems most probably, since the Hurricanes seem bound and determined to get him back) or he would have gotten more than he’s worth, while O’Sullivan has every chance to outperform his contract by the end of it.

  32. Coach pb9617 says:

    So, upon a second viewing on the DVR…Pouliot is taking all of Gagner’s faceoffs. I saw it once and thought Gagner got tossed. I saw it again and checked the stats.

    He went 5W 2L, including 3-3 in the defensive zone. Gagner was 0-1.

    Horcoff was 12W 9L, including 4W 4L in the defensive zone; Brodziak was 5W 4L, including 3W 2L in the defensive zone.

    Drew Cogliano? 3W 7L.

    The coach will substitute for the 44% guy, but not the 38% guy. I just don’t get it.

  33. Coach pb9617 says:

    I don’t care how well Cole does for the rest of the year; this isn’t the Oilers’ year, and that trade improved the team going forward. Either he would have bolted as a UFA (which seems most probably, since the Hurricanes seem bound and determined to get him back) or he would have gotten more than he’s worth, while O’Sullivan has every chance to outperform his contract by the end of it.

    Oooookay, has anyone taken the opposing view of this, to your knowledge?

  34. Jon says:

    Hey coach,
    you come across as arrogant with that reaction to Steve’s comment

    “Oooookay, has anyone taken the opposing view of this, to your knowledge?”

    We can all watch the highlights, and check the boxscore, so we don’t need you telling us Cole had a 4 point night. And if you do…don’t pull a kneejerk reaction to someone’s thoughts on the Cole trade.

  35. Black Dog says:

    Is this Daylight Savings Thingy mandatory?

    I told my kids when I put them to bed that just because the sun will be up doesn’t mean they should get up at 6 o’clock – I repeat DONTGETUPAT6OCLOCK

    They just stared at me.

    I’m doomed.

    Bad night for Capsule but thats to PVR I watched the game and a nice win for the Oilers. I thought Pouliot had a nice game.

    I thought the Horcoff line and the Brodziak like both looked fine.

    Actually I liked them all.

    Not sure what Penner did except that he is the whipping boy. Period.

    Ondrus is a pesky guy who is always game but generally he gets pummelled.

    And Dennis, five hours later, yes last spring the PP looked fine because it was a bunch of guys goiing out there being creative, moving their feet and the puck. They looked like the Habs.

    Now they’re back to station to station crap.

    Good win anyways. Outshot but it was a rope a doper for the most part.

  36. Dennis says:

    I understand 19 has a great chance to outperform the contract and I’ll start feeling better about it all just as soon as the kid shows up:)

    It’s just that I was getting used to the 78-89-26 line and now we’re back to waiting for 19 to figure some things out and start chipping in as well.

  37. Dennis says:

    LT: a couple of things I forgot to mention.

    1: my image of Dave Keon will be Forever clouded by the coat that he wore to his retirement ceremony. Do you remember that???

    2: I forgot to tell you how much I laughed at your Scott Oake comment about how the CBC probably had to take him off the Hockeyville beat because of all the threats on his life. I had just taken a sip of my half coffee-half hot chocolate and I honestly nearly spit it out.

  38. Master Lok says:

    Horcoff whale of a game. Roloson solid. Staios was very good. Pisani and Cogliano were both very good. Pouliot was strong too. And of course Brodziak.

    However, I’ll go against the grain and disagree with all of you here.

    Penner sucked. I would have benched him. Lazy giveaways, zero effort in winning the puck back. Penner outchanced the opposition 4-2? Or was it his linemates? Both Pisani and Cogs played their butts off, all I saw Penner do was stand in front of the net. You guys are nuts if you think Penner played well tonight.

  39. Steve says:

    Oooookay, has anyone taken the opposing view of this, to your knowledge?

    Either that or somebody was just spouting random excerpts from the league’s box scores.

  40. hunter1909 says:

    Oilers played good. Looking at this morning’s standings Oilers in 7th.

    I guess they need to not fire macTavish, and offer him an extension to stay on and coach defence, because if nothing else all of the Oilers are playing it pretty well under MacTs intelligent defence system. It still needs the offence coach though, poor MacT cannot cut it withut vets but he’s still an outstanding defensive coach – terrified when read the words “Marc Crawford in here yesterday.

  41. HBomb says:


    I told my kids when I put them to bed that just because the sun will be up doesn’t mean they should get up at 6 o’clock – I repeat DONTGETUPAT6OCLOCK

    BDHS: You’ve got it backwards. We’re on “spring ahead”, which means the sunrise will occur one hour later, not one hour earlier, than it has been recently.

    It’s going to be light out in the evenings later because of this….

  42. Coach pb9617 says:

    Hey coach,
    you come across as arrogant with that reaction to Steve’s comment

    Yeah, don’t really care.

    We can all watch the highlights, and check the boxscore, so we don’t need you telling us Cole had a 4 point night. And if you do…don’t pull a kneejerk reaction to someone’s thoughts on the Cole trade.

    It wasn’t someone’s thoughts, he was making an argument against a position that I don’t believe a single person in the comments section here has ever espoused. So I asked if anyone has ever taken the view that he was arguing against. It’s quite simple, acutally.

    Penner sucked. I would have benched him. Lazy giveaways, zero effort in winning the puck back. Penner outchanced the opposition 4-2? Or was it his linemates? Both Pisani and Cogs played their butts off, all I saw Penner do was stand in front of the net. You guys are nuts if you think Penner played well tonight.

    You too are using him as a whipping boy. He may not have been dominant, but he wasn’t nearly as bad as any of the second line, Kotalik or Reddox. Yet, once again, he finds the bench.

    Kevin Dineen in 09-10!

  43. Lowetide says:

    Dennis: I actually have a long black coat!

    Oake kills me, he just does. I know he’s from Winnipeg and that is one tough fricking town so one suspects he didn’t play with the other kids growing up.

    If he had, he’d be less arrogant, know fewer words, and less likely to be knifed in smalltown Canada.

  44. Dennis says:

    LT: Keon had on what must have been a fake fur; otherwise, a whole generation of otters gave their life to the cause.

    All you guys speak of him with such reverence and the theme seems to be humility and hard work and here’s a guy who dresses like he lives in a home for elderly pimps.

    BTW, Oake went to university here in St. John’s and i can’t figure out why. That’s a popular surname in the Central/West Coast area so maybe he’s got some family down here and that’s what drew him.

    Anyway, the funny thing about Oake is he doesn’t know how much everyone’s on edge in his company. Or he just doesn’t care.

  45. Master Lok says:

    You too are using him as a whipping boy. He may not have been dominant, but he wasn’t nearly as bad as any of the second line, Kotalik or Reddox. Yet, once again, he finds the bench.

    Let me guess this straight – you’re comparing Penner our supposed 1st line forward, getting paid $4 million plus, with a guy who just got off the plane from Buffalo and played his second game with us, and Liam Reddox, a rookie bottom sixer.

    And IMO, No, Penner did not play better than Reddox or Kotalik. I saw Kotalik at least come back to play some defense, and Reddox played decently all night. I guess you see that Penner can do no wrong.

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